Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 5–6 March 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 43.0% 41.5–44.6% 41.0–45.1% 40.6–45.4% 39.9–46.2%
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.0% 39.5–42.6% 39.0–43.0% 38.7–43.4% 37.9–44.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.5% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 294 277–312 264–314 261–322 248–336
Conservative Party 317 282 267–306 265–315 260–320 252–333
Liberal Democrats 12 8 5–15 4–16 3–16 2–18
Scottish National Party 35 41 26–53 17–54 12–55 6–56
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0.1% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.4% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0% 99.0%  
253 0% 99.0%  
254 0.1% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.9%  
256 0.1% 98.6%  
257 0.1% 98.6%  
258 0% 98.5%  
259 0.8% 98%  
260 0% 98%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 0.1% 97% Last Result
263 2% 97%  
264 0.4% 95%  
265 2% 95%  
266 0.3% 93%  
267 0% 93%  
268 0% 93%  
269 0.2% 93%  
270 0.8% 93%  
271 0% 92%  
272 0.3% 92%  
273 1.0% 92%  
274 0.1% 91%  
275 0.2% 90%  
276 0.1% 90%  
277 3% 90%  
278 2% 87%  
279 3% 86%  
280 2% 83%  
281 0.6% 81%  
282 1.2% 80%  
283 2% 79%  
284 0.3% 77%  
285 0.5% 76%  
286 1.4% 76%  
287 5% 75%  
288 1.1% 70%  
289 0.8% 69%  
290 1.3% 68%  
291 7% 67%  
292 2% 60%  
293 0.6% 58%  
294 9% 57% Median
295 4% 48%  
296 2% 44%  
297 8% 42%  
298 1.2% 34%  
299 0.4% 33%  
300 4% 33%  
301 4% 28%  
302 2% 24%  
303 0.9% 22%  
304 0.7% 21%  
305 3% 20%  
306 0.6% 17%  
307 0.2% 17%  
308 5% 17%  
309 0.2% 12%  
310 0.3% 11%  
311 1.0% 11%  
312 0.3% 10%  
313 2% 10%  
314 3% 8%  
315 0.6% 5%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0% 4%  
318 0.4% 4%  
319 0.4% 4%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.5% 3%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.1% 1.4%  
329 0.1% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0% 1.1%  
332 0% 1.1%  
333 0% 1.1%  
334 0% 1.1%  
335 0.5% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.4% 99.1%  
257 0.3% 98.7%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.5% 97%  
262 0.9% 97%  
263 0.1% 96%  
264 0.9% 96%  
265 0.7% 95%  
266 4% 94%  
267 2% 91%  
268 1.0% 88%  
269 1.1% 87%  
270 0.5% 86%  
271 0.9% 86%  
272 2% 85%  
273 0.8% 83%  
274 1.5% 82%  
275 4% 80%  
276 8% 77%  
277 2% 69%  
278 2% 67%  
279 2% 65%  
280 0.2% 63%  
281 6% 63%  
282 8% 57% Median
283 1.4% 49%  
284 1.4% 48%  
285 4% 47%  
286 0.5% 42%  
287 3% 42%  
288 4% 39%  
289 0.2% 35%  
290 0.9% 35%  
291 0.1% 34%  
292 2% 34%  
293 1.0% 32%  
294 2% 31%  
295 2% 29%  
296 7% 26%  
297 0.3% 20%  
298 1.2% 20%  
299 0.8% 18%  
300 4% 18%  
301 0.4% 14%  
302 1.3% 13%  
303 0.3% 12%  
304 0.4% 12%  
305 0.7% 11%  
306 1.0% 11%  
307 1.3% 10%  
308 0% 8%  
309 0.1% 8%  
310 1.2% 8%  
311 0.4% 7%  
312 0% 7%  
313 0.2% 7%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 1.2% 6%  
316 0.4% 5%  
317 2% 5% Last Result
318 0% 3%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 1.0% 3%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0% 1.5%  
325 0% 1.4%  
326 0.2% 1.4% Majority
327 0.6% 1.2%  
328 0% 0.6%  
329 0% 0.6%  
330 0% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.2% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.9% 99.8%  
3 3% 98.9%  
4 4% 96%  
5 6% 92%  
6 12% 86%  
7 12% 74%  
8 13% 62% Median
9 3% 49%  
10 7% 45%  
11 4% 38%  
12 5% 33% Last Result
13 4% 28%  
14 8% 24%  
15 6% 16%  
16 8% 10%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.6%  
19 0.2% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.3% 99.8%  
6 0.1% 99.6%  
7 0.4% 99.4%  
8 0.4% 99.0%  
9 0.7% 98.6%  
10 0.1% 98%  
11 0.1% 98%  
12 0.6% 98%  
13 0.4% 97%  
14 1.0% 97%  
15 0.1% 96%  
16 0.4% 96%  
17 0.6% 95%  
18 0.2% 95%  
19 0.9% 95%  
20 0.4% 94%  
21 0.3% 93%  
22 0.4% 93%  
23 0.3% 93%  
24 0.5% 92%  
25 0.4% 92%  
26 4% 91%  
27 6% 88%  
28 0.4% 82%  
29 6% 81%  
30 3% 76%  
31 2% 73%  
32 7% 71%  
33 0.1% 64%  
34 3% 64%  
35 2% 61% Last Result
36 0.1% 60%  
37 1.0% 60%  
38 0.9% 59%  
39 2% 58%  
40 4% 55%  
41 2% 51% Median
42 7% 49%  
43 3% 42%  
44 1.3% 40%  
45 2% 38%  
46 4% 36%  
47 1.1% 32%  
48 2% 31%  
49 3% 29%  
50 2% 25%  
51 10% 23%  
52 1.0% 12%  
53 2% 11%  
54 7% 9%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 4% 98%  
2 9% 94%  
3 21% 84%  
4 46% 64% Last Result, Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 349 89% 325–364 316–366 311–371 298–379
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 345 87% 323–360 312–363 309–368 295–375
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 328 63% 310–348 303–358 294–364 281–377
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 337 79% 315–353 307–358 303–360 291–368
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 325 49% 306–344 299–354 291–359 278–373
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 334 69% 313–349 305–354 298–356 287–365
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 306 10% 287–325 277–332 272–340 258–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 303 6% 283–321 273–328 267–337 254–350
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 294 3% 278–316 273–324 271–328 263–340
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 297 3% 280–315 267–318 265–326 252–339
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 286 2% 271–308 268–319 263–322 256–336
Labour Party 262 294 2% 277–312 264–314 261–322 248–336
Conservative Party 317 282 1.4% 267–306 265–315 260–320 252–333

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.2% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0% 99.4%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.4%  
304 0.6% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 98.8%  
306 0% 98.6%  
307 0% 98.6%  
308 0% 98.5%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 1.0% 98%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0% 97% Last Result
314 2% 97%  
315 0.4% 95%  
316 1.2% 95%  
317 0.2% 94%  
318 0.2% 94%  
319 0% 93%  
320 0.4% 93%  
321 1.2% 93%  
322 0.1% 92%  
323 0% 92%  
324 1.3% 92%  
325 1.0% 90%  
326 0.7% 89% Majority
327 0.4% 89%  
328 0.3% 88%  
329 1.3% 88%  
330 0.4% 87%  
331 4% 86%  
332 0.8% 82%  
333 1.2% 82%  
334 0.3% 80%  
335 7% 80%  
336 2% 74%  
337 2% 71%  
338 1.0% 69%  
339 2% 68%  
340 0.1% 66%  
341 0.9% 66%  
342 0.2% 65%  
343 4% 65%  
344 3% 61%  
345 0.5% 58%  
346 4% 58%  
347 1.4% 53% Median
348 1.4% 52%  
349 8% 51%  
350 6% 43%  
351 0.2% 37%  
352 2% 37%  
353 2% 35%  
354 2% 33%  
355 8% 31%  
356 4% 23%  
357 1.5% 20%  
358 0.8% 18%  
359 2% 17%  
360 0.9% 15%  
361 0.5% 14%  
362 1.1% 14%  
363 1.0% 13%  
364 2% 12%  
365 4% 9%  
366 0.7% 6%  
367 0.9% 5%  
368 0.1% 4%  
369 0.9% 4%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.1% 2%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.4% 1.3%  
376 0.1% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0% 99.5%  
295 0% 99.5%  
296 0% 99.5%  
297 0.1% 99.5%  
298 0% 99.4%  
299 0% 99.4%  
300 0.4% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 98.9%  
302 0% 98.9%  
303 0.3% 98.8%  
304 0.1% 98.6%  
305 0.1% 98.5%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0.3% 98% Last Result
310 1.0% 97%  
311 0.8% 96%  
312 0.6% 95%  
313 0% 95%  
314 1.2% 95%  
315 0.2% 94%  
316 0.3% 93%  
317 0% 93%  
318 0% 93%  
319 2% 93%  
320 0.1% 91%  
321 0.5% 91%  
322 0.2% 90%  
323 0.2% 90%  
324 2% 90%  
325 1.2% 88%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 0.4% 85%  
328 0.4% 85%  
329 3% 84%  
330 0.5% 81%  
331 8% 80%  
332 0.1% 72%  
333 3% 72%  
334 1.1% 70%  
335 0.3% 69%  
336 1.4% 68%  
337 2% 67%  
338 0.5% 65%  
339 4% 65%  
340 2% 60%  
341 0.2% 58%  
342 0.7% 58%  
343 5% 57% Median
344 0.8% 52%  
345 7% 51%  
346 6% 45%  
347 2% 39%  
348 0.4% 37%  
349 3% 36%  
350 2% 33%  
351 2% 32%  
352 9% 29%  
353 2% 21%  
354 2% 19%  
355 0.8% 17%  
356 0.3% 16%  
357 1.3% 16%  
358 1.2% 14%  
359 1.1% 13%  
360 2% 12%  
361 4% 10%  
362 0.8% 6%  
363 0.9% 5%  
364 0.5% 4%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.1% 3%  
368 0.8% 3%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.2% 1.4%  
372 0.1% 1.2%  
373 0.3% 1.0%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0.1% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.2% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.6%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.4% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 0% 99.0%  
285 0% 99.0%  
286 0.1% 99.0%  
287 0% 98.8%  
288 0.1% 98.8%  
289 0.3% 98.7%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 0% 97%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 0.2% 97%  
298 0.2% 97%  
299 0.1% 96%  
300 0.1% 96%  
301 0.6% 96%  
302 0.7% 96%  
303 0.6% 95%  
304 0.5% 94%  
305 0.1% 94%  
306 1.3% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 0.1% 91%  
309 0.4% 91%  
310 2% 90%  
311 2% 89%  
312 0.4% 87%  
313 2% 86%  
314 3% 84%  
315 8% 81%  
316 0.6% 74%  
317 0.2% 73%  
318 0.3% 73%  
319 1.0% 72%  
320 1.1% 71%  
321 0.4% 70%  
322 2% 70%  
323 0.5% 68%  
324 4% 67%  
325 0.3% 64%  
326 4% 63% Majority
327 1.4% 59% Median
328 9% 58%  
329 2% 49%  
330 8% 47%  
331 0.8% 39%  
332 8% 38%  
333 2% 31%  
334 1.2% 29%  
335 0.1% 28%  
336 0.7% 28%  
337 4% 27%  
338 2% 23%  
339 0.5% 21%  
340 2% 20%  
341 1.3% 18%  
342 0.4% 17%  
343 0.7% 17%  
344 2% 16%  
345 0.2% 14%  
346 2% 14%  
347 1.0% 12%  
348 2% 11%  
349 0% 9%  
350 0.3% 9%  
351 0.1% 8%  
352 1.2% 8%  
353 0.1% 7%  
354 0.4% 7%  
355 1.1% 6%  
356 0.1% 5% Last Result
357 0% 5%  
358 0.4% 5%  
359 0% 5%  
360 0.5% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.1% 4%  
363 0.7% 4%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 1.0% 2%  
366 0% 1.4%  
367 0% 1.3%  
368 0% 1.3%  
369 0.1% 1.3%  
370 0% 1.2%  
371 0.1% 1.2%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0% 0.9%  
374 0.1% 0.8%  
375 0% 0.8%  
376 0% 0.8%  
377 0.4% 0.7%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0.2% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0% 99.4%  
293 0% 99.4%  
294 0% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.3%  
296 0.1% 99.1%  
297 0.1% 98.9%  
298 0.5% 98.9%  
299 0% 98%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.1% 98% Last Result
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0% 97%  
305 0.3% 97%  
306 0.5% 97%  
307 2% 96%  
308 1.1% 94%  
309 0.3% 93%  
310 0.2% 93%  
311 1.1% 93%  
312 0% 92%  
313 0.3% 92%  
314 0.1% 91%  
315 3% 91%  
316 1.4% 88%  
317 0.9% 87%  
318 0.5% 86%  
319 1.4% 86%  
320 0.6% 84%  
321 0% 84%  
322 0.1% 84%  
323 2% 83%  
324 0.4% 81%  
325 2% 81%  
326 0.2% 79% Majority
327 9% 79%  
328 0.2% 70%  
329 2% 70%  
330 0.3% 68%  
331 1.4% 68%  
332 4% 67%  
333 2% 63%  
334 6% 61%  
335 0.5% 55%  
336 4% 54%  
337 0.4% 50%  
338 4% 50%  
339 1.1% 46% Median
340 0.4% 44%  
341 1.3% 44%  
342 2% 43%  
343 7% 41%  
344 1.3% 34%  
345 1.4% 33%  
346 3% 31%  
347 1.2% 28%  
348 10% 27%  
349 3% 17%  
350 1.1% 14%  
351 2% 13%  
352 0.2% 10%  
353 0.9% 10%  
354 0.5% 9%  
355 0.4% 9%  
356 0.5% 8%  
357 1.0% 8%  
358 4% 7%  
359 0.1% 3%  
360 0.6% 3%  
361 0.1% 2%  
362 1.0% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.1%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0% 0.7%  
366 0% 0.7%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.4% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.2%  
280 0% 99.0%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0% 99.0%  
283 0% 98.9%  
284 0.1% 98.9%  
285 0.3% 98.8%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.5% 97%  
293 0% 97%  
294 0.5% 97%  
295 0.1% 96%  
296 0.1% 96%  
297 0% 96%  
298 0.7% 96%  
299 0.6% 96%  
300 0.4% 95%  
301 0.5% 95%  
302 1.3% 94%  
303 0.1% 93%  
304 2% 93%  
305 0.2% 91%  
306 0.7% 90%  
307 2% 90%  
308 1.3% 88%  
309 2% 86%  
310 3% 84%  
311 4% 81%  
312 4% 77%  
313 0.1% 73%  
314 0.2% 73%  
315 1.0% 73%  
316 0.9% 72%  
317 2% 71%  
318 0.9% 69%  
319 0.2% 68%  
320 4% 68%  
321 3% 64%  
322 0.7% 61%  
323 1.1% 60% Median
324 8% 59%  
325 1.4% 51%  
326 2% 49% Majority
327 9% 47%  
328 7% 38%  
329 2% 31%  
330 0.8% 29%  
331 0.9% 28%  
332 0.2% 27%  
333 2% 27%  
334 2% 25%  
335 1.1% 23%  
336 1.2% 22%  
337 2% 21%  
338 2% 19%  
339 0.3% 17%  
340 2% 16%  
341 0.2% 15%  
342 2% 15%  
343 3% 13%  
344 2% 10%  
345 0% 9%  
346 0.3% 9%  
347 0% 8%  
348 0.2% 8%  
349 0.1% 8%  
350 1.4% 8%  
351 0% 7%  
352 0.5% 7% Last Result
353 0.8% 6%  
354 0.2% 5%  
355 0% 5%  
356 0.4% 5%  
357 0% 4%  
358 1.2% 4%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 1.0% 2%  
362 0% 1.4%  
363 0.1% 1.4%  
364 0.1% 1.3%  
365 0% 1.3%  
366 0% 1.3%  
367 0% 1.3%  
368 0.1% 1.2%  
369 0% 1.2%  
370 0.1% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 1.0%  
372 0% 0.8%  
373 0.4% 0.8%  
374 0% 0.4%  
375 0.2% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0% 99.4%  
289 0% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.5% 98.9%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0% 98% Last Result
298 0.8% 98%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0% 97%  
301 0.4% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0% 96%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 3% 96%  
306 0.1% 93%  
307 1.0% 93%  
308 0.4% 92%  
309 0.1% 92%  
310 0.5% 92%  
311 0.1% 91%  
312 0.5% 91%  
313 4% 91%  
314 1.1% 87%  
315 1.1% 86%  
316 0.5% 85%  
317 0.2% 84%  
318 2% 84%  
319 0.7% 82%  
320 2% 82%  
321 0.5% 80%  
322 0.3% 79%  
323 7% 79%  
324 0.4% 72%  
325 3% 72%  
326 0.4% 69% Majority
327 0.6% 68%  
328 4% 68%  
329 4% 64%  
330 4% 60%  
331 0.8% 56%  
332 4% 55%  
333 0.5% 51%  
334 2% 51%  
335 5% 49% Median
336 0.4% 44%  
337 0.9% 44%  
338 0.5% 43%  
339 7% 43%  
340 1.4% 35%  
341 3% 34%  
342 0.9% 31%  
343 2% 30%  
344 2% 27%  
345 11% 25%  
346 2% 14%  
347 1.0% 12%  
348 0.3% 11%  
349 1.4% 11%  
350 0.2% 9%  
351 0.4% 9%  
352 0.2% 9%  
353 2% 8%  
354 3% 6%  
355 0.1% 3%  
356 0.5% 3%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 1.1% 2%  
359 0.4% 1.2%  
360 0.1% 0.8%  
361 0% 0.8%  
362 0% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.6%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.2% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0.4% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.2%  
260 0.2% 99.2%  
261 0.1% 99.0%  
262 0% 98.9%  
263 0.1% 98.8%  
264 0% 98.8%  
265 0% 98.7%  
266 0% 98.7%  
267 0.1% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.7%  
269 0% 98.6%  
270 1.0% 98.6%  
271 0.1% 98%  
272 0.7% 98%  
273 1.2% 97%  
274 0% 96%  
275 0.4% 96%  
276 0% 95%  
277 0.2% 95%  
278 0.8% 95% Last Result
279 0.5% 94%  
280 0% 93%  
281 1.4% 93%  
282 0.1% 92%  
283 0.2% 92%  
284 0% 92%  
285 0.3% 92%  
286 0% 91%  
287 2% 91%  
288 3% 90%  
289 2% 87%  
290 0.2% 85%  
291 2% 85%  
292 0.3% 84%  
293 2% 83%  
294 2% 81%  
295 1.2% 79%  
296 1.1% 78%  
297 2% 77%  
298 2% 75%  
299 0.2% 73%  
300 0.9% 73%  
301 0.8% 72%  
302 2% 71%  
303 7% 69%  
304 9% 62%  
305 2% 53%  
306 1.4% 51% Median
307 8% 49%  
308 1.1% 41%  
309 0.7% 40%  
310 3% 39%  
311 4% 36%  
312 0.2% 32%  
313 0.9% 32%  
314 2% 31%  
315 0.9% 29%  
316 1.0% 28%  
317 0.2% 27%  
318 0.1% 27%  
319 4% 27%  
320 4% 23%  
321 3% 19%  
322 2% 16%  
323 1.3% 14%  
324 2% 12%  
325 0.7% 10%  
326 0.2% 10% Majority
327 2% 9%  
328 0.1% 7%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.5% 6%  
331 0.4% 5%  
332 0.6% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0% 4%  
335 0.1% 4%  
336 0.1% 4%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.1% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.2%  
348 0% 1.1%  
349 0% 1.1%  
350 0% 1.0%  
351 0% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 1.0%  
353 0.4% 0.8%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.2% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.6%  
254 0.4% 99.6%  
255 0% 99.3%  
256 0% 99.2%  
257 0.1% 99.2%  
258 0% 99.2%  
259 0.2% 99.1%  
260 0.1% 98.9%  
261 0% 98.8%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 0% 98.7%  
264 0% 98.7%  
265 0% 98.7%  
266 1.0% 98.6%  
267 0.7% 98%  
268 0.7% 97%  
269 0.1% 96%  
270 0.4% 96%  
271 0.5% 96%  
272 0% 95%  
273 0.4% 95%  
274 0% 95% Last Result
275 0.1% 95%  
276 1.1% 95%  
277 0.4% 94%  
278 0.1% 93%  
279 1.2% 93%  
280 0.1% 92%  
281 0.3% 92%  
282 0% 91%  
283 2% 91%  
284 1.0% 89%  
285 2% 88%  
286 0.2% 86%  
287 2% 86%  
288 0.7% 84%  
289 0.4% 83%  
290 1.3% 83%  
291 2% 82%  
292 0.5% 80%  
293 2% 79%  
294 4% 77%  
295 0.7% 73%  
296 0.1% 72%  
297 1.2% 72%  
298 2% 71%  
299 8% 69%  
300 0.8% 62%  
301 8% 61%  
302 2% 53% Median
303 9% 51%  
304 1.4% 42%  
305 4% 41%  
306 0.3% 37%  
307 4% 36%  
308 0.5% 33%  
309 2% 32%  
310 0.4% 30%  
311 1.1% 30%  
312 1.0% 29%  
313 0.3% 28%  
314 0.2% 27%  
315 0.6% 27%  
316 8% 26%  
317 3% 19%  
318 2% 16%  
319 0.4% 14%  
320 2% 13%  
321 2% 11%  
322 0.4% 10%  
323 0.1% 9%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.3% 7%  
326 0.1% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 6%  
328 0.6% 6%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 0.6% 4%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 0.1% 4%  
333 0.2% 4%  
334 0.2% 3%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0% 3%  
337 0.1% 3%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.1% 1.3%  
344 0% 1.2%  
345 0.1% 1.2%  
346 0% 1.0%  
347 0% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0.4% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0.2% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.2% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.5%  
264 0.1% 99.4%  
265 0% 99.3%  
266 0% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.2% 99.1%  
269 1.0% 98.9%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 0.1% 97%  
273 4% 97%  
274 1.0% 93%  
275 0.5% 92%  
276 0.4% 92%  
277 0.5% 91%  
278 0.9% 91%  
279 0.2% 90%  
280 2% 90%  
281 1.1% 87%  
282 3% 86%  
283 10% 83%  
284 1.2% 73%  
285 3% 72%  
286 1.4% 69%  
287 1.3% 67%  
288 7% 66%  
289 2% 59%  
290 1.3% 57% Median
291 0.4% 56%  
292 1.1% 56%  
293 4% 54%  
294 0.4% 50%  
295 4% 50%  
296 0.5% 46%  
297 6% 45%  
298 2% 39%  
299 4% 37%  
300 1.4% 33%  
301 0.3% 32%  
302 2% 32%  
303 0.2% 30%  
304 9% 30%  
305 0.2% 21%  
306 2% 21%  
307 0.4% 19%  
308 2% 19%  
309 0.1% 17%  
310 0% 16%  
311 0.6% 16%  
312 1.4% 16%  
313 0.5% 14%  
314 0.9% 14%  
315 1.4% 13%  
316 3% 12%  
317 0.1% 9%  
318 0.3% 9%  
319 0% 8%  
320 1.1% 8%  
321 0.2% 7%  
322 0.3% 7%  
323 1.1% 7%  
324 2% 6%  
325 0.5% 4%  
326 0.3% 3% Majority
327 0% 3%  
328 0.8% 3%  
329 0.1% 2% Last Result
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0% 2%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.1% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 1.1%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0% 0.7%  
338 0% 0.6%  
339 0% 0.6%  
340 0.2% 0.6%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0.1% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0.1% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.4% 99.6%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.1% 99.1%  
255 0.1% 99.0%  
256 0.2% 98.9%  
257 0% 98.7%  
258 0% 98.7%  
259 0% 98.6%  
260 0% 98.6%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.1% 98.5%  
263 0% 98%  
264 0.9% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.2% 97% Last Result
267 2% 97%  
268 1.4% 95%  
269 0% 93%  
270 0.4% 93%  
271 0.1% 93%  
272 0.6% 93%  
273 0.1% 92%  
274 0.1% 92%  
275 0.4% 92%  
276 0.5% 92%  
277 0.2% 91%  
278 0.3% 91%  
279 0.1% 91%  
280 1.0% 90%  
281 3% 89%  
282 3% 87%  
283 2% 84%  
284 2% 82%  
285 0.5% 80%  
286 3% 80%  
287 0.2% 77%  
288 1.0% 77%  
289 4% 76%  
290 2% 72%  
291 0.9% 71%  
292 1.1% 70%  
293 0.5% 69%  
294 1.2% 68%  
295 7% 67%  
296 1.0% 60%  
297 12% 59%  
298 0.7% 48% Median
299 2% 47%  
300 4% 45%  
301 7% 41%  
302 1.0% 34%  
303 0.6% 33%  
304 4% 33%  
305 3% 29%  
306 4% 25%  
307 0.8% 21%  
308 0.7% 20%  
309 3% 20%  
310 1.5% 17%  
311 4% 16%  
312 0.2% 12%  
313 0.4% 12%  
314 0.4% 11%  
315 1.2% 11%  
316 0.4% 10%  
317 3% 9%  
318 2% 6%  
319 0.1% 4%  
320 0.1% 4%  
321 0.1% 4%  
322 0.4% 4%  
323 0.4% 4%  
324 0.6% 3%  
325 0.1% 3%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0% 1.2%  
333 0.1% 1.2%  
334 0% 1.1%  
335 0% 1.1%  
336 0% 1.1%  
337 0% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 1.0%  
339 0.6% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.4%  
258 0.3% 99.2%  
259 0.1% 99.0%  
260 0.2% 98.8%  
261 0.3% 98.6%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.8% 98%  
264 0.1% 97%  
265 0.6% 97%  
266 0.6% 97%  
267 0.5% 96%  
268 0.9% 96%  
269 0.8% 95%  
270 4% 94%  
271 2% 90%  
272 1.1% 88%  
273 1.2% 87%  
274 1.3% 86%  
275 0.3% 84%  
276 0.8% 84%  
277 2% 83%  
278 2% 81%  
279 9% 79%  
280 2% 71%  
281 2% 68%  
282 3% 67%  
283 0.4% 64%  
284 2% 63%  
285 6% 61%  
286 7% 55% Median
287 0.8% 49%  
288 5% 48%  
289 0.7% 43%  
290 0.2% 42%  
291 2% 42%  
292 4% 40%  
293 0.5% 35%  
294 2% 35%  
295 1.4% 33%  
296 0.3% 32%  
297 1.1% 31%  
298 3% 30%  
299 0.1% 28%  
300 8% 28%  
301 0.5% 20%  
302 3% 19%  
303 0.4% 16%  
304 0.4% 15%  
305 2% 15%  
306 1.2% 13%  
307 2% 12%  
308 0.2% 10%  
309 0.2% 10%  
310 0.5% 10%  
311 0.1% 9%  
312 2% 9%  
313 0% 7%  
314 0% 7%  
315 0.3% 7%  
316 0.2% 7%  
317 1.2% 6%  
318 0% 5%  
319 0.6% 5%  
320 0.8% 5%  
321 1.0% 4% Last Result
322 0.3% 3%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0% 2%  
325 0.7% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0.3% 1.4%  
329 0% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0.4% 1.1%  
332 0% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.5%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0.1% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.2% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.4% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.2%  
250 0% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0% 99.0%  
253 0% 99.0%  
254 0.1% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.9%  
256 0.1% 98.6%  
257 0.1% 98.6%  
258 0% 98.5%  
259 0.8% 98%  
260 0% 98%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 0.1% 97% Last Result
263 2% 97%  
264 0.4% 95%  
265 2% 95%  
266 0.3% 93%  
267 0% 93%  
268 0% 93%  
269 0.2% 93%  
270 0.8% 93%  
271 0% 92%  
272 0.3% 92%  
273 1.0% 92%  
274 0.1% 91%  
275 0.2% 90%  
276 0.1% 90%  
277 3% 90%  
278 2% 87%  
279 3% 86%  
280 2% 83%  
281 0.6% 81%  
282 1.2% 80%  
283 2% 79%  
284 0.3% 77%  
285 0.5% 76%  
286 1.4% 76%  
287 5% 75%  
288 1.1% 70%  
289 0.8% 69%  
290 1.3% 68%  
291 7% 67%  
292 2% 60%  
293 0.6% 58%  
294 9% 57% Median
295 4% 48%  
296 2% 44%  
297 8% 42%  
298 1.2% 34%  
299 0.4% 33%  
300 4% 33%  
301 4% 28%  
302 2% 24%  
303 0.9% 22%  
304 0.7% 21%  
305 3% 20%  
306 0.6% 17%  
307 0.2% 17%  
308 5% 17%  
309 0.2% 12%  
310 0.3% 11%  
311 1.0% 11%  
312 0.3% 10%  
313 2% 10%  
314 3% 8%  
315 0.6% 5%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0% 4%  
318 0.4% 4%  
319 0.4% 4%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.5% 3%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.1% 1.4%  
329 0.1% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0% 1.1%  
332 0% 1.1%  
333 0% 1.1%  
334 0% 1.1%  
335 0.5% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.4% 99.1%  
257 0.3% 98.7%  
258 0.1% 98%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.5% 97%  
262 0.9% 97%  
263 0.1% 96%  
264 0.9% 96%  
265 0.7% 95%  
266 4% 94%  
267 2% 91%  
268 1.0% 88%  
269 1.1% 87%  
270 0.5% 86%  
271 0.9% 86%  
272 2% 85%  
273 0.8% 83%  
274 1.5% 82%  
275 4% 80%  
276 8% 77%  
277 2% 69%  
278 2% 67%  
279 2% 65%  
280 0.2% 63%  
281 6% 63%  
282 8% 57% Median
283 1.4% 49%  
284 1.4% 48%  
285 4% 47%  
286 0.5% 42%  
287 3% 42%  
288 4% 39%  
289 0.2% 35%  
290 0.9% 35%  
291 0.1% 34%  
292 2% 34%  
293 1.0% 32%  
294 2% 31%  
295 2% 29%  
296 7% 26%  
297 0.3% 20%  
298 1.2% 20%  
299 0.8% 18%  
300 4% 18%  
301 0.4% 14%  
302 1.3% 13%  
303 0.3% 12%  
304 0.4% 12%  
305 0.7% 11%  
306 1.0% 11%  
307 1.3% 10%  
308 0% 8%  
309 0.1% 8%  
310 1.2% 8%  
311 0.4% 7%  
312 0% 7%  
313 0.2% 7%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 1.2% 6%  
316 0.4% 5%  
317 2% 5% Last Result
318 0% 3%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 1.0% 3%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0% 1.5%  
325 0% 1.4%  
326 0.2% 1.4% Majority
327 0.6% 1.2%  
328 0% 0.6%  
329 0% 0.6%  
330 0% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.2% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations