Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 10–13 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.2% 37.6–40.8% 37.2–41.2% 36.8–41.6% 36.0–42.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.2% 36.7–39.8% 36.2–40.3% 35.8–40.7% 35.1–41.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.7% 9.2–13.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 299 263–316 254–318 250–321 244–331
Labour Party 262 247 237–291 235–299 231–304 227–311
Liberal Democrats 12 28 26–32 25–33 24–33 21–36
Scottish National Party 35 51 47–54 42–54 40–54 29–56
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
UK Independence Party 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Plaid Cymru 4 2 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.5% 99.5%  
245 0.9% 99.1%  
246 0% 98%  
247 0% 98%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 1.5% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.3% 95%  
254 0.5% 95%  
255 0.4% 95%  
256 0.2% 94%  
257 0.4% 94%  
258 0.1% 94%  
259 0.7% 94%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0% 92%  
262 0.4% 92%  
263 2% 92%  
264 1.3% 90%  
265 0% 88%  
266 1.1% 88%  
267 0.1% 87%  
268 0.2% 87%  
269 0.2% 87%  
270 0% 87%  
271 0.4% 87%  
272 0.1% 86%  
273 0.3% 86%  
274 0.7% 86%  
275 3% 85%  
276 0.4% 83%  
277 0.4% 82%  
278 0.1% 82%  
279 0.4% 82%  
280 1.1% 81%  
281 0% 80%  
282 1.3% 80%  
283 0% 79%  
284 2% 79%  
285 4% 77%  
286 0.3% 73%  
287 5% 73%  
288 0.2% 67%  
289 1.2% 67%  
290 0.1% 66%  
291 0.1% 66%  
292 6% 66%  
293 0.1% 60%  
294 0.9% 60%  
295 0.5% 59%  
296 3% 58%  
297 3% 56%  
298 0.1% 52%  
299 9% 52% Median
300 1.5% 43%  
301 0.2% 42%  
302 1.2% 41%  
303 1.0% 40%  
304 0.1% 39%  
305 0.2% 39%  
306 2% 39%  
307 0.3% 37%  
308 0.7% 37%  
309 12% 36%  
310 1.0% 25%  
311 1.1% 24%  
312 3% 23%  
313 4% 19%  
314 2% 15%  
315 1.0% 13%  
316 2% 12%  
317 0.3% 9% Last Result
318 5% 9%  
319 0.7% 4%  
320 0.4% 4%  
321 1.1% 3%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.3%  
328 0% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0.6% 0.9%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0.1% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.6% 99.4%  
229 0.7% 98.7%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0.6% 97%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 2% 95%  
237 3% 92%  
238 6% 89%  
239 5% 83%  
240 4% 78%  
241 10% 74%  
242 0.1% 64%  
243 0.3% 63%  
244 0.3% 63%  
245 0.6% 63%  
246 9% 62%  
247 4% 53% Median
248 3% 49%  
249 0.4% 46%  
250 0.1% 46%  
251 0.1% 46%  
252 0.8% 46%  
253 0.3% 45%  
254 4% 45%  
255 6% 41%  
256 0.8% 35%  
257 0.5% 35%  
258 0.1% 34%  
259 0.1% 34%  
260 0.6% 34%  
261 5% 33%  
262 1.0% 28% Last Result
263 6% 27%  
264 0.1% 21%  
265 0.2% 21%  
266 0.2% 21%  
267 0% 21%  
268 0.1% 21%  
269 2% 21%  
270 0.8% 19%  
271 0.1% 18%  
272 0.1% 18%  
273 2% 18%  
274 0.1% 15%  
275 0.2% 15%  
276 0.2% 15%  
277 0.2% 15%  
278 0.8% 15%  
279 0.1% 14%  
280 0.4% 14%  
281 0.4% 13%  
282 0.3% 13%  
283 0.1% 13%  
284 0.2% 13%  
285 0.1% 12%  
286 0.1% 12%  
287 1.0% 12%  
288 0.5% 11%  
289 0% 11%  
290 0.3% 11%  
291 2% 11%  
292 0.7% 9%  
293 0.1% 8%  
294 0.3% 8%  
295 0.3% 8%  
296 0.6% 8%  
297 1.1% 7%  
298 0% 6%  
299 2% 6%  
300 0.6% 4%  
301 0.2% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.9% 2%  
307 0.1% 1.0%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0.5% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 99.9%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.8%  
21 0.5% 99.6%  
22 0.8% 99.1%  
23 0.3% 98%  
24 1.3% 98%  
25 5% 97%  
26 3% 91%  
27 27% 88%  
28 21% 62% Median
29 10% 41%  
30 6% 31%  
31 6% 24%  
32 12% 18%  
33 4% 6%  
34 0.2% 2%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.7% 0.9%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.7%  
29 0.4% 99.6%  
30 0% 99.2%  
31 0% 99.2%  
32 0% 99.2%  
33 0.1% 99.2%  
34 0% 99.1%  
35 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
36 0% 99.0%  
37 0% 99.0%  
38 0.1% 99.0%  
39 1.1% 98.9%  
40 0.8% 98%  
41 1.2% 97%  
42 1.2% 96%  
43 0.1% 95%  
44 0.4% 95%  
45 1.2% 94%  
46 0.1% 93%  
47 7% 93%  
48 8% 86%  
49 0.5% 78%  
50 21% 77%  
51 21% 56% Median
52 5% 35%  
53 7% 30%  
54 21% 23%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.2%  
57 0.5% 0.5%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 66% 100% Last Result, Median
2 34% 34%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 25%  
2 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100%  
1 5% 58%  
2 33% 53% Median
3 15% 20%  
4 2% 4% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 331 61% 315–368 313–377 309–380 300–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 329 59% 313–366 313–376 307–380 298–386
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 352 85% 313–366 303–369 297–373 290–378
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 350 85% 313–366 302–367 297–371 289–378
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 302 18% 286–339 284–348 281–353 271–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 300 17% 286–337 284–347 279–351 269–357
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 328 55% 291–345 283–346 278–350 273–360
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 280 7% 265–318 264–329 259–334 253–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 278 7% 265–318 262–328 258–334 253–341
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 301 2% 264–318 255–318 251–323 244–333
Conservative Party 317 299 2% 263–316 254–318 250–321 244–331
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 250 0% 238–291 237–299 233–305 227–312
Labour Party 262 247 0% 237–291 235–299 231–304 227–311

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0.6% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.0%  
302 0.1% 99.0%  
303 0% 98.8%  
304 0.1% 98.8%  
305 0.3% 98.7%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 1.0% 97%  
311 0.3% 96%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 5% 95% Last Result
314 0.2% 91%  
315 3% 90%  
316 0.4% 87%  
317 5% 87%  
318 1.0% 82%  
319 4% 81%  
320 2% 77%  
321 2% 75%  
322 10% 74%  
323 0.3% 63%  
324 0.6% 63%  
325 2% 62%  
326 0.1% 61% Majority
327 1.0% 61%  
328 1.2% 60% Median
329 0.8% 59%  
330 0.3% 58%  
331 8% 57%  
332 5% 50%  
333 0.7% 45%  
334 3% 44%  
335 0.2% 42%  
336 0.3% 41%  
337 0.9% 41%  
338 3% 40%  
339 3% 37%  
340 0.4% 34%  
341 0.8% 34%  
342 5% 33%  
343 0.8% 28%  
344 0.4% 27%  
345 2% 27%  
346 4% 25%  
347 0% 21%  
348 0.8% 21%  
349 0.4% 20%  
350 1.1% 20%  
351 0.5% 19%  
352 0% 18%  
353 0.2% 18%  
354 0.5% 18%  
355 3% 17%  
356 0.8% 15%  
357 0.2% 14%  
358 0.2% 14%  
359 0.1% 14%  
360 0.4% 14%  
361 0.1% 13%  
362 0.3% 13%  
363 0% 13%  
364 0.1% 13%  
365 1.0% 13%  
366 0.5% 12%  
367 1.1% 11%  
368 2% 10%  
369 0% 8%  
370 0% 8%  
371 0.9% 8%  
372 0.4% 7%  
373 0.1% 6%  
374 0.4% 6%  
375 0.3% 6%  
376 0.3% 6%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 0.1% 5%  
379 0.6% 5%  
380 1.5% 4%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.1% 2%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.9% 2%  
387 0.5% 0.9%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.7% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.0%  
300 0% 99.0%  
301 0.1% 99.0%  
302 0.2% 98.9%  
303 0% 98.7%  
304 0.2% 98.7%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 0% 98%  
307 0.6% 98%  
308 0.7% 97%  
309 0.3% 97% Last Result
310 1.1% 96%  
311 0.1% 95%  
312 0.1% 95%  
313 6% 95%  
314 0.2% 89%  
315 7% 89%  
316 3% 82%  
317 1.5% 78%  
318 0.4% 77%  
319 0.7% 76%  
320 0.7% 76%  
321 4% 75%  
322 10% 71%  
323 0.8% 61%  
324 0.6% 60%  
325 0.7% 60%  
326 0% 59% Median, Majority
327 0.1% 59%  
328 1.2% 59%  
329 9% 58%  
330 4% 49%  
331 0.1% 45%  
332 3% 45%  
333 0.1% 41%  
334 0% 41%  
335 0.1% 41%  
336 0.3% 41%  
337 4% 41%  
338 3% 37%  
339 6% 34%  
340 0.1% 28%  
341 0.8% 28%  
342 0% 27%  
343 0.4% 27%  
344 4% 27%  
345 3% 23%  
346 0.3% 20%  
347 0.2% 20%  
348 1.5% 20%  
349 0% 18%  
350 0.3% 18%  
351 0.1% 18%  
352 0.7% 18%  
353 0.1% 17%  
354 0.4% 17%  
355 2% 17%  
356 0.7% 15%  
357 0.3% 14%  
358 0.2% 14%  
359 0.1% 14%  
360 0.4% 13%  
361 0.1% 13%  
362 0.3% 13%  
363 0% 13%  
364 0.4% 13%  
365 1.3% 12%  
366 1.1% 11%  
367 0.7% 10%  
368 1.5% 9%  
369 0% 8%  
370 0.5% 8%  
371 0.6% 7%  
372 0.2% 7%  
373 0.5% 6%  
374 0.1% 6%  
375 0.6% 6%  
376 0.4% 5%  
377 0.2% 5%  
378 0% 4%  
379 0.6% 4%  
380 1.5% 4%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0% 2%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0% 2%  
385 0.9% 2%  
386 0.4% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.4% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 99.2%  
294 0% 99.0%  
295 0% 99.0%  
296 0.5% 99.0%  
297 1.1% 98.5%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0% 97%  
300 0.1% 97%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 1.4% 97%  
303 1.0% 96%  
304 0.3% 95%  
305 1.1% 94%  
306 0.4% 93%  
307 0.7% 93%  
308 0.6% 92%  
309 0.1% 91%  
310 0.3% 91%  
311 0.1% 91%  
312 0.1% 91%  
313 2% 91%  
314 0.1% 89%  
315 1.4% 89%  
316 0.1% 88%  
317 0.2% 88%  
318 0% 87%  
319 0.5% 87%  
320 0.2% 87%  
321 0.1% 87%  
322 0.4% 87%  
323 0.2% 86%  
324 0.1% 86%  
325 0.8% 86%  
326 0.1% 85% Majority
327 0.2% 85%  
328 0.2% 85%  
329 2% 84%  
330 0.3% 82%  
331 0.7% 82%  
332 1.1% 81%  
333 0.3% 80%  
334 0.2% 80%  
335 0.3% 80%  
336 2% 79%  
337 0.1% 78%  
338 2% 78%  
339 0.3% 76%  
340 4% 75%  
341 4% 71%  
342 3% 67%  
343 0.6% 63%  
344 0.7% 63%  
345 4% 62%  
346 0.1% 59%  
347 0.2% 58%  
348 0.1% 58%  
349 0.1% 58%  
350 4% 58%  
351 0.1% 54%  
352 10% 54% Median
353 0.8% 44%  
354 0.7% 43%  
355 3% 43%  
356 0.1% 40% Last Result
357 3% 40%  
358 0.4% 37%  
359 0% 37%  
360 2% 37%  
361 0.4% 35%  
362 4% 34%  
363 11% 30%  
364 3% 19%  
365 3% 16%  
366 7% 13%  
367 0.4% 6%  
368 0.1% 5%  
369 1.4% 5%  
370 0.2% 4%  
371 0.5% 4%  
372 0.7% 3%  
373 0.8% 3%  
374 0.9% 2%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0% 0.7%  
378 0.4% 0.7%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0.1% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.5% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0% 99.0%  
295 0.5% 99.0%  
296 1.0% 98.5%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0% 97%  
299 0% 97%  
300 0.3% 97%  
301 0.6% 97%  
302 1.5% 96%  
303 0.5% 95%  
304 0.4% 94%  
305 1.3% 94%  
306 0.3% 93%  
307 0.9% 92%  
308 0.2% 92%  
309 0.3% 91%  
310 0% 91%  
311 0.2% 91%  
312 0.1% 91%  
313 2% 91%  
314 1.4% 89%  
315 0.3% 88%  
316 0% 87%  
317 0.4% 87%  
318 0.1% 87%  
319 0.4% 87%  
320 0.1% 86%  
321 0% 86%  
322 0.4% 86%  
323 0.3% 86%  
324 0% 86%  
325 0.8% 86%  
326 0.1% 85% Majority
327 0.2% 85%  
328 0.6% 84%  
329 2% 84%  
330 2% 82%  
331 0.1% 80%  
332 0.4% 80%  
333 0.9% 79%  
334 0.1% 79%  
335 0.1% 79%  
336 1.0% 79%  
337 4% 78%  
338 2% 73%  
339 4% 71%  
340 1.2% 67%  
341 0.8% 66%  
342 3% 65%  
343 3% 62%  
344 0.1% 58%  
345 0.1% 58%  
346 0.1% 58%  
347 0.1% 58%  
348 3% 58%  
349 0.2% 55%  
350 11% 55% Median
351 0.1% 44%  
352 2% 44% Last Result
353 3% 42%  
354 1.2% 39%  
355 0.5% 38%  
356 0.4% 37%  
357 0.4% 37%  
358 0.1% 36%  
359 0.1% 36%  
360 5% 36%  
361 2% 31%  
362 3% 28%  
363 11% 25%  
364 3% 15%  
365 0.4% 11%  
366 6% 11%  
367 1.3% 5%  
368 0.2% 4%  
369 0.5% 4%  
370 0.3% 3%  
371 1.0% 3%  
372 1.2% 2%  
373 0.1% 1.0%  
374 0.1% 0.9%  
375 0% 0.8%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0% 0.6%  
378 0.4% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0.1% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.7% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.1%  
273 0% 99.1%  
274 0% 99.0%  
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0.1% 98.9%  
277 0% 98.8%  
278 0% 98.8%  
279 0.5% 98.8%  
280 0.8% 98%  
281 0.8% 98%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 2% 97%  
285 0.8% 95%  
286 5% 94%  
287 3% 89%  
288 0% 86%  
289 4% 86%  
290 4% 82%  
291 0.8% 78%  
292 3% 77%  
293 0.2% 74%  
294 0.4% 74%  
295 10% 73%  
296 0.5% 63%  
297 2% 63%  
298 0.8% 61%  
299 8% 60%  
300 0.4% 52% Median
301 0.9% 52% Last Result
302 1.4% 51%  
303 4% 50%  
304 0.9% 45%  
305 3% 45%  
306 0.4% 42%  
307 3% 42%  
308 0.2% 38%  
309 3% 38%  
310 0.3% 35%  
311 1.1% 35%  
312 0% 34%  
313 1.1% 34%  
314 5% 33%  
315 1.0% 27%  
316 0.4% 26%  
317 2% 26%  
318 0.3% 24%  
319 3% 23%  
320 0.1% 20%  
321 1.5% 20%  
322 0.1% 18%  
323 0.5% 18%  
324 0.1% 18%  
325 0.2% 18%  
326 0.2% 18% Majority
327 3% 17%  
328 0.6% 15%  
329 0.1% 14%  
330 0.1% 14%  
331 0.1% 14%  
332 0.8% 14%  
333 0.1% 13%  
334 0.3% 13%  
335 0.4% 13%  
336 1.2% 12%  
337 0.1% 11%  
338 1.0% 11%  
339 0% 10%  
340 1.0% 10%  
341 2% 9%  
342 0.1% 7%  
343 0.5% 7%  
344 0.1% 7%  
345 0.4% 6%  
346 0.2% 6%  
347 0.4% 6%  
348 0.7% 5%  
349 0.1% 5%  
350 1.4% 5%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0% 3%  
353 0.3% 3%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0% 1.3%  
358 1.0% 1.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0.1% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.6% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0% 99.0%  
273 0% 99.0%  
274 0.1% 99.0%  
275 0.1% 98.9%  
276 0.3% 98.8%  
277 0.1% 98.6%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.9% 98%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.4% 97%  
283 0.8% 96%  
284 2% 96%  
285 2% 94%  
286 6% 92%  
287 5% 86%  
288 1.3% 81%  
289 3% 80%  
290 3% 77%  
291 0.5% 74%  
292 0.6% 74%  
293 2% 73%  
294 0.3% 72%  
295 10% 72%  
296 1.1% 62%  
297 8% 60% Last Result
298 0.8% 52% Median
299 0.9% 52%  
300 2% 51%  
301 4% 49%  
302 0.9% 46%  
303 0.2% 45%  
304 0.6% 45%  
305 5% 44%  
306 0.2% 38%  
307 3% 38%  
308 0.1% 35%  
309 0.7% 35%  
310 0.8% 34%  
311 5% 34%  
312 0.9% 28%  
313 0.4% 27%  
314 1.0% 27%  
315 0.1% 26%  
316 0.1% 26%  
317 6% 26%  
318 0.3% 20%  
319 1.4% 20%  
320 0.3% 18%  
321 0.1% 18%  
322 0.5% 18%  
323 0.1% 18%  
324 0.6% 18%  
325 0.1% 17%  
326 0.2% 17% Majority
327 2% 17%  
328 0.6% 14%  
329 0.1% 14%  
330 0.2% 14%  
331 0.1% 13%  
332 0.5% 13%  
333 0.5% 13%  
334 0.2% 12%  
335 0% 12%  
336 1.1% 12%  
337 1.0% 11%  
338 0.1% 10%  
339 0.5% 10%  
340 0.9% 9%  
341 1.4% 8%  
342 0.4% 7%  
343 0.2% 7%  
344 0.4% 6%  
345 0.3% 6%  
346 0.5% 6%  
347 0.5% 5%  
348 0.1% 5%  
349 0.1% 5%  
350 2% 5%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.1% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.5% 2%  
356 0.1% 1.4%  
357 1.0% 1.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 1.0% 99.6%  
274 0% 98.6%  
275 0.5% 98.6%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.1% 97%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 1.4% 97%  
282 0.3% 95%  
283 0.5% 95%  
284 0.5% 95%  
285 0.2% 94%  
286 0.3% 94%  
287 0.1% 94%  
288 0.5% 93%  
289 0.1% 93%  
290 2% 93%  
291 0.5% 91%  
292 0.1% 90%  
293 0.9% 90%  
294 0.1% 89%  
295 1.5% 89%  
296 0.2% 87%  
297 0.4% 87%  
298 0.1% 87%  
299 0.6% 87%  
300 0.1% 86%  
301 0% 86%  
302 0.5% 86%  
303 3% 85%  
304 0% 83%  
305 0.2% 83%  
306 0.3% 82%  
307 0.4% 82%  
308 0.1% 82%  
309 1.3% 82%  
310 0.2% 80%  
311 0.1% 80%  
312 6% 80%  
313 0.3% 74%  
314 0.3% 74%  
315 5% 74%  
316 0.8% 68%  
317 1.1% 68%  
318 0.6% 66%  
319 0% 66%  
320 0.9% 66%  
321 3% 65%  
322 0.5% 62%  
323 0.2% 62%  
324 3% 61%  
325 3% 58%  
326 3% 55% Majority
327 2% 53% Median
328 2% 51%  
329 0.6% 49% Last Result
330 0.8% 48%  
331 8% 48%  
332 1.0% 40%  
333 0.2% 39%  
334 2% 39%  
335 0.1% 37%  
336 10% 36%  
337 0.2% 26%  
338 0.5% 26%  
339 3% 26%  
340 3% 23%  
341 5% 20%  
342 1.0% 15%  
343 0.3% 14%  
344 3% 13%  
345 5% 11%  
346 0.6% 5%  
347 2% 5%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.7% 3%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 0.7% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0% 1.2%  
354 0% 1.2%  
355 0.1% 1.2%  
356 0% 1.0%  
357 0% 1.0%  
358 0% 1.0%  
359 0% 0.9%  
360 0.6% 0.9%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0.1% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.4% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.3%  
256 0% 99.2%  
257 0.1% 99.2%  
258 0.1% 99.1%  
259 2% 99.0%  
260 0.5% 97%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 0.1% 96%  
263 0.2% 96%  
264 2% 96%  
265 5% 94%  
266 0.8% 89%  
267 3% 88%  
268 11% 85%  
269 3% 74%  
270 7% 71%  
271 0.6% 64%  
272 0.1% 64%  
273 0.4% 64%  
274 0.1% 63%  
275 0.7% 63%  
276 0.4% 62%  
277 2% 62% Median
278 2% 60% Last Result
279 5% 57%  
280 7% 52%  
281 0% 45%  
282 3% 45%  
283 0% 42%  
284 0% 42%  
285 0.1% 42%  
286 0.1% 42%  
287 0.4% 42%  
288 6% 41%  
289 1.0% 35%  
290 2% 34%  
291 2% 33%  
292 8% 30%  
293 0.1% 22%  
294 0.1% 22%  
295 0.9% 22%  
296 0.1% 21%  
297 0.8% 21%  
298 0.1% 21%  
299 0.4% 21%  
300 2% 20%  
301 3% 19%  
302 0.1% 16%  
303 0.1% 16%  
304 0.2% 16%  
305 0% 15%  
306 0.8% 15%  
307 0.1% 14%  
308 0.3% 14%  
309 0.4% 14%  
310 0.1% 14%  
311 0.3% 14%  
312 0.1% 13%  
313 0.4% 13%  
314 0.2% 13%  
315 0% 13%  
316 0.1% 12%  
317 1.4% 12%  
318 2% 11%  
319 0.2% 9%  
320 0.1% 9%  
321 0% 9%  
322 0.3% 9%  
323 0.5% 9%  
324 0.5% 8%  
325 0.4% 8%  
326 1.4% 7% Majority
327 0.3% 6%  
328 0.5% 6%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.1% 3%  
333 0% 3%  
334 0.2% 3%  
335 1.0% 2%  
336 0.4% 1.3%  
337 0% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0% 0.8%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0% 0.6%  
342 0.5% 0.6%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0.1% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.4% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.3%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.1% 99.2%  
257 1.4% 99.1%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 1.0% 97%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.3% 96%  
262 1.4% 96%  
263 0.1% 95%  
264 1.2% 94%  
265 7% 93%  
266 3% 86%  
267 4% 83%  
268 14% 80%  
269 0.6% 66%  
270 2% 66%  
271 0.3% 63%  
272 0.1% 63%  
273 1.0% 63%  
274 2% 62% Last Result
275 1.1% 60% Median
276 2% 59%  
277 4% 57%  
278 7% 53%  
279 1.2% 46%  
280 3% 45%  
281 0.1% 42%  
282 0.1% 42%  
283 0.1% 42%  
284 0.1% 42%  
285 0.7% 42%  
286 4% 41%  
287 0.7% 37%  
288 3% 36%  
289 5% 33%  
290 4% 28%  
291 2% 24%  
292 0.1% 22%  
293 0% 22%  
294 0.9% 22%  
295 0.9% 21%  
296 0.5% 21%  
297 0.3% 20%  
298 2% 20%  
299 0.1% 18%  
300 0.3% 18%  
301 2% 18%  
302 0% 16%  
303 0.1% 16%  
304 0.2% 15%  
305 0.1% 15%  
306 0.9% 15%  
307 0.1% 14%  
308 0.2% 14%  
309 0.4% 14%  
310 0.2% 13%  
311 0.5% 13%  
312 0.2% 13%  
313 0% 13%  
314 0% 12%  
315 0.1% 12%  
316 1.5% 12%  
317 0.1% 11%  
318 2% 11%  
319 0.2% 9%  
320 0% 9%  
321 0.3% 9%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0.9% 8%  
324 0.3% 8%  
325 0.4% 7%  
326 1.1% 7% Majority
327 0.4% 6%  
328 0.9% 5%  
329 2% 4%  
330 0.1% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 1.2% 3%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0% 0.9%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0.4% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.4% 99.5%  
246 0.9% 99.1%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 1.5% 98%  
252 0.6% 96%  
253 0% 96%  
254 0.3% 95%  
255 0.3% 95%  
256 0.6% 95%  
257 0.1% 94%  
258 0.6% 94%  
259 0.5% 94%  
260 0.2% 93%  
261 0.6% 93%  
262 0.1% 92%  
263 1.5% 92%  
264 1.0% 91%  
265 0.9% 90%  
266 1.4% 89%  
267 0% 87%  
268 0.1% 87%  
269 0.3% 87%  
270 0% 87%  
271 0.4% 87%  
272 0.1% 86%  
273 0.3% 86%  
274 0.2% 86%  
275 3% 86%  
276 0.3% 83%  
277 0.6% 83%  
278 0.1% 82%  
279 0.1% 82%  
280 0.3% 82%  
281 0.2% 82%  
282 1.4% 82%  
283 0% 80%  
284 2% 80%  
285 1.3% 78%  
286 0.5% 77%  
287 4% 76%  
288 0.3% 73%  
289 0.7% 73%  
290 5% 72%  
291 0.8% 67%  
292 3% 66%  
293 0.1% 63%  
294 4% 63%  
295 0.3% 59%  
296 0.1% 59%  
297 0.1% 59%  
298 3% 59%  
299 3% 56%  
300 2% 52%  
301 7% 51% Median
302 2% 44%  
303 0.7% 41%  
304 0% 41%  
305 0.7% 41%  
306 0.4% 40%  
307 0.9% 40%  
308 0.5% 39%  
309 11% 38%  
310 2% 27%  
311 0.4% 25%  
312 1.2% 24%  
313 0.3% 23%  
314 1.3% 23%  
315 7% 21%  
316 3% 14%  
317 0.4% 11%  
318 6% 11%  
319 0.1% 5%  
320 0.1% 5%  
321 1.2% 5% Last Result
322 0.6% 3%  
323 0.7% 3%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0% 1.0%  
332 0% 1.0%  
333 0.7% 1.0%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.5% 99.5%  
245 0.9% 99.1%  
246 0% 98%  
247 0% 98%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 1.5% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.3% 95%  
254 0.5% 95%  
255 0.4% 95%  
256 0.2% 94%  
257 0.4% 94%  
258 0.1% 94%  
259 0.7% 94%  
260 0.6% 93%  
261 0% 92%  
262 0.4% 92%  
263 2% 92%  
264 1.3% 90%  
265 0% 88%  
266 1.1% 88%  
267 0.1% 87%  
268 0.2% 87%  
269 0.2% 87%  
270 0% 87%  
271 0.4% 87%  
272 0.1% 86%  
273 0.3% 86%  
274 0.7% 86%  
275 3% 85%  
276 0.4% 83%  
277 0.4% 82%  
278 0.1% 82%  
279 0.4% 82%  
280 1.1% 81%  
281 0% 80%  
282 1.3% 80%  
283 0% 79%  
284 2% 79%  
285 4% 77%  
286 0.3% 73%  
287 5% 73%  
288 0.2% 67%  
289 1.2% 67%  
290 0.1% 66%  
291 0.1% 66%  
292 6% 66%  
293 0.1% 60%  
294 0.9% 60%  
295 0.5% 59%  
296 3% 58%  
297 3% 56%  
298 0.1% 52%  
299 9% 52% Median
300 1.5% 43%  
301 0.2% 42%  
302 1.2% 41%  
303 1.0% 40%  
304 0.1% 39%  
305 0.2% 39%  
306 2% 39%  
307 0.3% 37%  
308 0.7% 37%  
309 12% 36%  
310 1.0% 25%  
311 1.1% 24%  
312 3% 23%  
313 4% 19%  
314 2% 15%  
315 1.0% 13%  
316 2% 12%  
317 0.3% 9% Last Result
318 5% 9%  
319 0.7% 4%  
320 0.4% 4%  
321 1.1% 3%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.3%  
328 0% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0.6% 0.9%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0.1% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.5% 99.4%  
230 0.7% 98.9%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.1% 98%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.2% 97%  
235 0.6% 97%  
236 1.1% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 5% 93%  
239 5% 88%  
240 1.4% 82%  
241 10% 81%  
242 7% 70%  
243 0% 64%  
244 0.4% 64%  
245 0.7% 63%  
246 0.3% 63%  
247 1.1% 62%  
248 7% 61%  
249 1.0% 54% Median
250 6% 53%  
251 0.7% 47%  
252 0.9% 46%  
253 0.1% 45%  
254 0% 45%  
255 3% 45%  
256 3% 42%  
257 4% 39%  
258 0.2% 35%  
259 0.3% 35%  
260 0.7% 35%  
261 0.2% 34%  
262 0.9% 34%  
263 3% 33%  
264 5% 30%  
265 4% 25%  
266 0.4% 21% Last Result
267 0.1% 21%  
268 0.1% 21%  
269 0.8% 21%  
270 0% 20%  
271 1.0% 20%  
272 0.3% 19%  
273 3% 19%  
274 0.1% 16%  
275 0.4% 16%  
276 0.2% 15%  
277 0.1% 15%  
278 0.6% 15%  
279 0.2% 14%  
280 0.1% 14%  
281 0.4% 14%  
282 0.6% 14%  
283 0.3% 13%  
284 0.1% 13%  
285 0% 13%  
286 0.1% 13%  
287 0.1% 12%  
288 0.9% 12%  
289 0.5% 11%  
290 0.3% 11%  
291 2% 11%  
292 0.4% 9%  
293 0.3% 9%  
294 0.1% 8%  
295 0.3% 8%  
296 0.6% 8%  
297 1.2% 7%  
298 0.3% 6%  
299 2% 6%  
300 0.5% 4%  
301 0.9% 4%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.6% 3%  
306 0% 2%  
307 1.0% 2%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.8%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0.4% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0.1% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.6% 99.4%  
229 0.7% 98.7%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0.6% 97%  
234 0.3% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 2% 95%  
237 3% 92%  
238 6% 89%  
239 5% 83%  
240 4% 78%  
241 10% 74%  
242 0.1% 64%  
243 0.3% 63%  
244 0.3% 63%  
245 0.6% 63%  
246 9% 62%  
247 4% 53% Median
248 3% 49%  
249 0.4% 46%  
250 0.1% 46%  
251 0.1% 46%  
252 0.8% 46%  
253 0.3% 45%  
254 4% 45%  
255 6% 41%  
256 0.8% 35%  
257 0.5% 35%  
258 0.1% 34%  
259 0.1% 34%  
260 0.6% 34%  
261 5% 33%  
262 1.0% 28% Last Result
263 6% 27%  
264 0.1% 21%  
265 0.2% 21%  
266 0.2% 21%  
267 0% 21%  
268 0.1% 21%  
269 2% 21%  
270 0.8% 19%  
271 0.1% 18%  
272 0.1% 18%  
273 2% 18%  
274 0.1% 15%  
275 0.2% 15%  
276 0.2% 15%  
277 0.2% 15%  
278 0.8% 15%  
279 0.1% 14%  
280 0.4% 14%  
281 0.4% 13%  
282 0.3% 13%  
283 0.1% 13%  
284 0.2% 13%  
285 0.1% 12%  
286 0.1% 12%  
287 1.0% 12%  
288 0.5% 11%  
289 0% 11%  
290 0.3% 11%  
291 2% 11%  
292 0.7% 9%  
293 0.1% 8%  
294 0.3% 8%  
295 0.3% 8%  
296 0.6% 8%  
297 1.1% 7%  
298 0% 6%  
299 2% 6%  
300 0.6% 4%  
301 0.2% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.9% 2%  
307 0.1% 1.0%  
308 0% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0.5% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations