Opinion Poll by ComRes for Daily Express, 27–29 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.5% 38.1–40.9% 37.7–41.3% 37.4–41.7% 36.7–42.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.5% 38.1–40.9% 37.7–41.3% 37.4–41.7% 36.7–42.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 8.1–9.7% 7.9–10.0% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.6%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.9% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 293 271–319 263–327 262–330 256–333
Labour Party 262 282 258–308 252–318 245–321 239–329
Liberal Democrats 12 21 17–26 16–27 16–28 15–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 35 13–47 9–49 6–51 3–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.2% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.8% 99.4%  
258 0.1% 98.6%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 2% 98%  
263 0.5% 95%  
264 1.5% 95%  
265 0.5% 93%  
266 0.5% 93%  
267 0.4% 92%  
268 0.8% 92%  
269 0.2% 91%  
270 0.4% 91%  
271 1.3% 91%  
272 0.6% 89%  
273 2% 89%  
274 3% 87%  
275 0.5% 84%  
276 0.4% 83%  
277 1.1% 83%  
278 0.2% 82%  
279 0.7% 81%  
280 3% 81%  
281 2% 78%  
282 0.8% 76%  
283 0.7% 75%  
284 0.5% 74%  
285 4% 74%  
286 2% 70%  
287 1.1% 68%  
288 4% 67%  
289 0.1% 63%  
290 8% 63%  
291 0.8% 55%  
292 4% 54%  
293 0.5% 50% Median
294 0.5% 50%  
295 4% 49%  
296 0.5% 45%  
297 5% 45%  
298 9% 40%  
299 0.8% 31%  
300 0.5% 31%  
301 3% 30%  
302 2% 27%  
303 1.1% 25%  
304 1.0% 24%  
305 0.6% 23%  
306 0.3% 23%  
307 0.7% 22%  
308 0.4% 21%  
309 2% 21%  
310 2% 19%  
311 1.2% 18%  
312 0.7% 16%  
313 0.5% 16%  
314 0.5% 15%  
315 1.2% 15%  
316 0.5% 14%  
317 0.4% 13% Last Result
318 2% 13%  
319 2% 11%  
320 0.2% 9%  
321 0.1% 9%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0% 9%  
324 0.8% 9%  
325 0.1% 8%  
326 0.3% 8% Majority
327 4% 7%  
328 0.4% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 1.0% 2%  
332 0.7% 1.3%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.4% 99.9%  
240 1.0% 99.4%  
241 0.1% 98%  
242 0.6% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 0% 97%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.5% 96%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 2% 96%  
253 0.3% 93%  
254 0.1% 93%  
255 0.6% 93%  
256 0.6% 92%  
257 2% 92%  
258 0.6% 90%  
259 0.2% 90%  
260 4% 89%  
261 0.7% 85%  
262 4% 85% Last Result
263 0.6% 81%  
264 2% 80%  
265 0.1% 78%  
266 1.1% 78%  
267 0.1% 76%  
268 0.1% 76%  
269 0.2% 76%  
270 2% 76%  
271 0.9% 74%  
272 1.2% 73%  
273 8% 72%  
274 2% 64%  
275 4% 62%  
276 2% 58%  
277 0.2% 56%  
278 1.3% 56%  
279 3% 55%  
280 0.3% 51%  
281 0.4% 51%  
282 0.6% 51% Median
283 0.2% 50%  
284 3% 50%  
285 1.0% 47%  
286 0.6% 46%  
287 0.3% 46%  
288 8% 45%  
289 5% 37%  
290 0.6% 32%  
291 0.4% 31%  
292 5% 31%  
293 0.1% 26%  
294 3% 26%  
295 0.3% 22%  
296 1.1% 22%  
297 2% 21%  
298 2% 19%  
299 0.8% 18%  
300 0.8% 17%  
301 0.9% 16%  
302 0.9% 15%  
303 0.4% 14%  
304 0.4% 14%  
305 0.7% 13%  
306 0.1% 13%  
307 2% 13%  
308 2% 11%  
309 0.1% 9%  
310 0.9% 9%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 0.3% 7%  
313 0.8% 7%  
314 0.7% 6%  
315 0% 5%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.1% 5%  
318 0% 5%  
319 0% 5%  
320 0.1% 5%  
321 3% 5%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 1.0% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.3%  
325 0% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.8%  
329 0.4% 0.7%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.2% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.8%  
15 0.7% 99.6%  
16 7% 98.9%  
17 3% 92%  
18 10% 89%  
19 7% 78%  
20 5% 71%  
21 20% 67% Median
22 8% 47%  
23 3% 38%  
24 15% 36%  
25 6% 21%  
26 9% 15%  
27 3% 6%  
28 3% 3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.8% 99.8%  
4 0.6% 99.0%  
5 0.6% 98%  
6 0.4% 98%  
7 0.8% 97%  
8 0.7% 97%  
9 4% 96%  
10 0% 92%  
11 0.1% 92%  
12 0.1% 92%  
13 3% 92%  
14 1.0% 89%  
15 1.5% 88%  
16 0.1% 87%  
17 0.3% 87%  
18 0.5% 86%  
19 6% 86%  
20 0.8% 80%  
21 1.1% 79%  
22 0.9% 78%  
23 5% 77%  
24 1.2% 72%  
25 0.3% 71%  
26 4% 71%  
27 0.6% 67%  
28 2% 66%  
29 9% 64%  
30 0.4% 55%  
31 0.1% 55%  
32 2% 55%  
33 1.4% 53%  
34 1.2% 52%  
35 10% 50% Last Result, Median
36 0.2% 40%  
37 0.2% 40%  
38 6% 40%  
39 2% 34%  
40 7% 32%  
41 0.9% 25%  
42 1.2% 24%  
43 4% 23%  
44 2% 20%  
45 2% 18%  
46 1.2% 16%  
47 5% 15%  
48 2% 10%  
49 3% 8%  
50 0.9% 5%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Median
1 21% 45%  
2 17% 25%  
3 5% 7%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 337 77% 311–359 303–367 300–368 297–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 336 75% 310–359 303–366 299–368 295–373
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 329 52% 300–351 289–356 287–366 278–372
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 328 51% 299–350 288–356 286–365 277–370
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 313 25% 293–337 288–345 284–351 279–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 317 26% 293–337 285–342 279–346 276–351
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 315 25% 291–336 285–341 279–345 275–350
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 302 17% 280–331 274–342 265–344 260–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 15% 279–330 274–341 264–343 258–352
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 294 8% 271–320 264–327 262–331 257–335
Conservative Party 317 293 8% 271–319 263–327 262–330 256–333
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 284 1.0% 258–309 252–320 246–322 239–330
Labour Party 262 282 1.0% 258–308 252–318 245–321 239–329

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.2% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.7% 99.4%  
299 1.0% 98.7%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.4% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 4% 96%  
304 0.3% 93%  
305 0.1% 92%  
306 0.8% 92%  
307 0% 91%  
308 0.2% 91%  
309 0.1% 91%  
310 0.2% 91%  
311 2% 91%  
312 2% 89%  
313 0.4% 87% Last Result
314 0.5% 87%  
315 1.2% 86%  
316 0.5% 85%  
317 0.5% 85%  
318 0.7% 84%  
319 1.2% 84%  
320 2% 82%  
321 2% 81%  
322 0.4% 79%  
323 0.7% 79%  
324 0.3% 78%  
325 0.6% 77%  
326 1.0% 77% Majority
327 1.1% 76%  
328 2% 75%  
329 3% 73%  
330 0.5% 70%  
331 0.8% 69%  
332 9% 69%  
333 5% 60%  
334 0.5% 55%  
335 4% 55%  
336 0.5% 51%  
337 0.5% 50%  
338 4% 50% Median
339 0.8% 46%  
340 8% 45%  
341 0.1% 37%  
342 4% 37%  
343 1.1% 33%  
344 2% 32%  
345 4% 30%  
346 0.5% 26%  
347 0.7% 26%  
348 0.8% 25%  
349 2% 24%  
350 3% 22%  
351 0.7% 19%  
352 0.2% 19%  
353 1.1% 18%  
354 0.4% 17%  
355 0.5% 17%  
356 3% 16%  
357 2% 13%  
358 0.6% 11%  
359 1.3% 11%  
360 0.4% 9%  
361 0.3% 9%  
362 0.8% 9%  
363 0.3% 8%  
364 0.5% 8%  
365 0.5% 7%  
366 1.5% 7%  
367 0.5% 5%  
368 2% 5%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 0.1% 2%  
373 0.8% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0.2% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.2% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.6% 99.4%  
297 0.4% 98.8%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 4% 96%  
304 0.3% 92%  
305 0.1% 92%  
306 0.9% 92%  
307 0% 91%  
308 0.3% 91%  
309 0.4% 91% Last Result
310 1.1% 90%  
311 0.6% 89%  
312 2% 89%  
313 0.4% 87%  
314 0.4% 87%  
315 2% 86%  
316 0.2% 85%  
317 0.6% 84%  
318 1.3% 84%  
319 2% 82%  
320 0.2% 80%  
321 1.4% 80%  
322 0.2% 78%  
323 2% 78%  
324 0.8% 77%  
325 0.7% 76%  
326 0.3% 75% Majority
327 2% 75%  
328 0.5% 72%  
329 3% 72%  
330 0.3% 69%  
331 0.7% 69%  
332 13% 68%  
333 0.6% 55%  
334 1.3% 54%  
335 3% 53%  
336 3% 50%  
337 1.1% 47%  
338 6% 45% Median
339 1.2% 40%  
340 2% 38%  
341 0.1% 36%  
342 5% 36%  
343 0.8% 31%  
344 3% 31%  
345 2% 28%  
346 0.7% 26%  
347 0.5% 25%  
348 2% 25%  
349 3% 23%  
350 1.3% 20%  
351 0.2% 19%  
352 0.6% 18%  
353 1.0% 18%  
354 0.1% 17%  
355 3% 17%  
356 1.2% 14%  
357 2% 13%  
358 0.4% 10%  
359 1.2% 10%  
360 0.2% 9%  
361 0.4% 9%  
362 0.8% 8%  
363 0.6% 8%  
364 0.6% 7%  
365 0.8% 6%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.4% 5%  
368 2% 4%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.1% 2%  
372 1.0% 2%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0.2% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.2% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0.3% 99.6%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0.6% 99.1%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 2% 97%  
289 0.1% 95%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 0.2% 95%  
292 0.3% 95%  
293 0.1% 94%  
294 0.8% 94%  
295 0.9% 94%  
296 0.1% 93%  
297 1.1% 93%  
298 1.0% 92%  
299 0.5% 91%  
300 0.3% 90%  
301 2% 90%  
302 0.7% 88%  
303 1.2% 87%  
304 1.3% 86%  
305 0.9% 85%  
306 0.9% 84%  
307 0.8% 83%  
308 1.0% 82%  
309 1.0% 81%  
310 0.7% 80%  
311 2% 80%  
312 3% 77%  
313 0.3% 75%  
314 1.4% 74%  
315 0.6% 73%  
316 0.2% 72%  
317 8% 72%  
318 0.6% 65%  
319 0.9% 64%  
320 0.8% 63%  
321 6% 62%  
322 0.2% 56%  
323 3% 56%  
324 0.2% 52%  
325 0.2% 52%  
326 0.3% 52% Majority
327 0.5% 52%  
328 0.6% 51% Median
329 1.3% 51%  
330 3% 49%  
331 0.1% 47%  
332 1.4% 47%  
333 10% 45%  
334 4% 35%  
335 1.0% 31%  
336 0.5% 30%  
337 0.3% 29%  
338 2% 29%  
339 0.8% 27%  
340 1.1% 27%  
341 2% 25%  
342 0.6% 23%  
343 1.0% 23%  
344 0.4% 22%  
345 0.3% 21%  
346 1.3% 21%  
347 2% 20%  
348 3% 18%  
349 0.1% 16%  
350 4% 15%  
351 2% 11%  
352 2% 10%  
353 0.5% 8%  
354 1.1% 8%  
355 0.5% 7%  
356 2% 6% Last Result
357 0.2% 5%  
358 0.1% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.5% 4%  
361 0.2% 4%  
362 0.2% 3%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.1% 3%  
365 0.2% 3%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.7% 2%  
370 0.3% 1.0%  
371 0% 0.7%  
372 0.4% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.2% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.3% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.6% 99.0%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 2% 97%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0.1% 95%  
290 0.2% 95%  
291 0.1% 95%  
292 0.3% 95%  
293 0.1% 94%  
294 0.9% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 0.8% 91%  
298 0.6% 91%  
299 1.0% 90%  
300 0.2% 89%  
301 2% 89%  
302 0.5% 87%  
303 0.5% 86%  
304 3% 86%  
305 0.7% 83%  
306 0.1% 82%  
307 1.3% 82%  
308 0% 81%  
309 1.4% 81%  
310 0.3% 80%  
311 4% 79%  
312 1.0% 75%  
313 0.7% 74%  
314 0.9% 73%  
315 0.2% 72%  
316 5% 72%  
317 3% 67%  
318 1.3% 64%  
319 6% 63%  
320 0.4% 57%  
321 0.6% 56%  
322 0.3% 56%  
323 3% 55%  
324 0.3% 52%  
325 0.5% 52%  
326 0.3% 51% Majority
327 1.1% 51%  
328 0.3% 50% Median
329 0.6% 50%  
330 2% 49%  
331 0.2% 47%  
332 4% 46%  
333 10% 42%  
334 2% 32%  
335 0.3% 30%  
336 1.2% 30%  
337 0% 29%  
338 2% 29%  
339 0.8% 26%  
340 3% 26%  
341 0.1% 23%  
342 1.1% 23%  
343 1.2% 22%  
344 0.5% 21%  
345 0.2% 20%  
346 2% 20%  
347 0.3% 18%  
348 3% 18%  
349 0.1% 15%  
350 5% 15%  
351 1.1% 10%  
352 0.9% 9% Last Result
353 1.2% 8%  
354 0.7% 7%  
355 0.4% 6%  
356 1.3% 6%  
357 0.3% 4%  
358 0.2% 4%  
359 0.4% 4%  
360 0.4% 4%  
361 0.1% 3%  
362 0.4% 3%  
363 0% 3%  
364 0.1% 3%  
365 0.2% 3%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.1% 1.2%  
369 0.5% 1.2%  
370 0.4% 0.7%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0.1% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.2% 99.4%  
281 0% 99.3%  
282 1.1% 99.2%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 1.5% 97%  
288 0.7% 95%  
289 1.2% 94%  
290 1.3% 93%  
291 0.2% 92%  
292 0.8% 92%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 89%  
295 2% 87%  
296 0.4% 85%  
297 2% 85%  
298 1.4% 82%  
299 1.3% 81%  
300 0.8% 80%  
301 0.1% 79%  
302 1.1% 79%  
303 0.8% 77%  
304 2% 77%  
305 0.4% 74%  
306 2% 74%  
307 1.0% 72%  
308 1.4% 71%  
309 4% 70%  
310 0.7% 66%  
311 10% 65%  
312 1.4% 55%  
313 5% 54%  
314 2% 49% Median
315 0.8% 47%  
316 1.3% 46%  
317 0.3% 45%  
318 0.3% 45%  
319 0.3% 45%  
320 0.3% 44%  
321 7% 44%  
322 10% 37%  
323 2% 28%  
324 0.4% 25%  
325 0.3% 25%  
326 0.7% 25% Majority
327 1.5% 24%  
328 2% 22%  
329 0.5% 21% Last Result
330 0.1% 20%  
331 2% 20%  
332 0.3% 18%  
333 1.2% 18%  
334 0.4% 16%  
335 2% 16%  
336 3% 14%  
337 2% 12%  
338 0.1% 10%  
339 0.3% 10%  
340 0.1% 9%  
341 0.2% 9%  
342 0.2% 9%  
343 0.2% 9%  
344 0.2% 9%  
345 4% 8%  
346 1.2% 5%  
347 0.4% 3%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 1.4% 2%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.2% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.6%  
277 1.4% 99.5%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.2% 97%  
281 0.1% 97%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.4% 97%  
284 1.2% 97%  
285 4% 95%  
286 0.2% 92%  
287 0.2% 91%  
288 0.2% 91%  
289 0.2% 91%  
290 0.1% 91%  
291 0.3% 91%  
292 0.1% 90%  
293 2% 90%  
294 3% 88%  
295 2% 86%  
296 0.4% 84%  
297 1.2% 84%  
298 0.3% 82%  
299 2% 82%  
300 0.1% 80%  
301 0.5% 80% Last Result
302 2% 79%  
303 1.5% 78%  
304 0.7% 76%  
305 0.3% 75%  
306 0.4% 75%  
307 2% 75%  
308 10% 72%  
309 7% 63%  
310 0.3% 56%  
311 0.3% 56%  
312 0.3% 55%  
313 0.3% 55%  
314 1.3% 55%  
315 0.8% 54%  
316 2% 53%  
317 5% 51% Median
318 1.4% 46%  
319 10% 45%  
320 0.7% 35%  
321 4% 34%  
322 1.4% 30%  
323 1.0% 29%  
324 2% 28%  
325 0.4% 26%  
326 2% 26% Majority
327 0.8% 23%  
328 1.1% 23%  
329 0.1% 21%  
330 0.8% 21%  
331 1.3% 20%  
332 1.4% 19%  
333 2% 18%  
334 0.4% 15%  
335 2% 15%  
336 2% 13%  
337 1.5% 11%  
338 0.9% 9%  
339 0.2% 8%  
340 1.3% 8%  
341 1.2% 7%  
342 0.7% 6%  
343 1.5% 5%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 1.1% 2%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.2% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0.2% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0.1% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.2% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.9% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 98.8%  
277 0.7% 98.6%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.4% 97%  
281 0.1% 97%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 1.2% 96%  
285 4% 95%  
286 0.3% 91%  
287 0.2% 91%  
288 0.3% 91%  
289 0.3% 91%  
290 0.1% 90%  
291 0.3% 90%  
292 1.0% 90%  
293 2% 89%  
294 3% 87%  
295 0.4% 84%  
296 0.3% 84%  
297 1.1% 83% Last Result
298 0.8% 82%  
299 3% 81%  
300 0.7% 79%  
301 1.0% 78%  
302 0.5% 77%  
303 1.3% 76%  
304 0.1% 75%  
305 0.2% 75%  
306 0.9% 75%  
307 3% 74%  
308 15% 71%  
309 0.4% 56%  
310 0.3% 56%  
311 0.3% 55%  
312 0.2% 55%  
313 0.2% 55%  
314 2% 55%  
315 5% 52%  
316 2% 47%  
317 6% 46% Median
318 2% 39%  
319 2% 37%  
320 0.8% 34%  
321 4% 34%  
322 3% 30%  
323 1.4% 27%  
324 0.5% 25%  
325 0.2% 25%  
326 2% 25% Majority
327 1.3% 23%  
328 0.5% 21%  
329 0.2% 21%  
330 0.8% 21%  
331 1.4% 20%  
332 2% 18%  
333 2% 17%  
334 2% 15%  
335 0.3% 12%  
336 2% 12%  
337 1.0% 10%  
338 0.9% 9%  
339 0.5% 8%  
340 2% 7%  
341 0.7% 6%  
342 0.2% 5%  
343 1.3% 5%  
344 0.6% 3%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 1.3% 2%  
348 0.1% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.7%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0.2% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0.1% 100%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0.4% 99.7%  
261 0.5% 99.3%  
262 0.1% 98.8%  
263 0.6% 98.8%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0% 97%  
268 0.4% 97%  
269 0.1% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.2% 96%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 1.3% 96%  
275 0.4% 94%  
276 0.7% 94%  
277 1.2% 93%  
278 0.9% 92% Last Result
279 1.1% 91%  
280 5% 90%  
281 0.1% 85%  
282 3% 85%  
283 0.3% 82%  
284 2% 82%  
285 0.2% 80%  
286 0.5% 80%  
287 1.2% 79%  
288 1.1% 78%  
289 0.1% 77%  
290 3% 77%  
291 0.8% 74%  
292 2% 74%  
293 0% 71%  
294 1.2% 71%  
295 0.3% 70%  
296 2% 70%  
297 10% 68%  
298 4% 58%  
299 0.2% 54%  
300 2% 53%  
301 0.6% 51%  
302 0.3% 50%  
303 1.1% 50% Median
304 0.3% 49%  
305 0.5% 49%  
306 0.3% 48%  
307 3% 48%  
308 0.3% 45%  
309 0.6% 44%  
310 0.4% 44%  
311 6% 43%  
312 1.3% 37%  
313 3% 36%  
314 5% 33%  
315 0.2% 28%  
316 0.9% 28%  
317 0.7% 27%  
318 1.0% 26%  
319 4% 25%  
320 0.3% 21%  
321 1.4% 20%  
322 0% 19%  
323 1.3% 19%  
324 0.1% 18%  
325 0.7% 18%  
326 3% 17% Majority
327 0.5% 14%  
328 0.5% 14%  
329 2% 13%  
330 0.2% 11%  
331 1.0% 11%  
332 0.5% 10%  
333 0.9% 9%  
334 0.1% 9%  
335 2% 8%  
336 0.9% 7%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 0.3% 6%  
339 0.1% 5%  
340 0.2% 5%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 2% 5%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 1.0%  
351 0% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.8%  
353 0.3% 0.7%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.2% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.4% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.3%  
261 0.7% 99.0%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.6% 98%  
265 0.2% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.2% 97%  
270 0.5% 96%  
271 0.3% 96%  
272 0.1% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 2% 95% Last Result
275 0.5% 94%  
276 1.1% 93%  
277 0.5% 92%  
278 2% 92%  
279 2% 90%  
280 4% 89%  
281 0.1% 85%  
282 3% 84%  
283 2% 82%  
284 1.3% 80%  
285 0.3% 79%  
286 0.4% 79%  
287 1.0% 78%  
288 0.6% 77%  
289 2% 77%  
290 1.1% 75%  
291 0.8% 73%  
292 2% 73%  
293 0.3% 71%  
294 0.5% 71%  
295 1.0% 70%  
296 4% 69%  
297 10% 65%  
298 1.4% 55%  
299 0.1% 53%  
300 3% 53%  
301 1.3% 51%  
302 0.6% 49%  
303 0.5% 49% Median
304 0.3% 48%  
305 0.2% 48%  
306 0.2% 48%  
307 3% 48%  
308 0.2% 44%  
309 6% 44%  
310 0.8% 38%  
311 0.9% 37%  
312 0.6% 36%  
313 8% 35%  
314 0.2% 28%  
315 0.6% 28%  
316 1.4% 27%  
317 0.3% 26%  
318 3% 25%  
319 2% 23%  
320 0.7% 20%  
321 1.0% 20%  
322 1.0% 19%  
323 0.8% 18%  
324 0.9% 17%  
325 0.9% 16%  
326 1.3% 15% Majority
327 1.2% 14%  
328 0.7% 13%  
329 2% 12%  
330 0.3% 10%  
331 0.5% 10%  
332 0.9% 9%  
333 1.2% 9%  
334 0.1% 7%  
335 0.9% 7%  
336 0.8% 6%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 0.3% 6%  
339 0.2% 5%  
340 0.1% 5%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 2% 5%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.1% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.3% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.2% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.2% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 1.0% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 2% 98%  
263 0.4% 96%  
264 1.0% 95%  
265 0.8% 94%  
266 0.6% 94%  
267 0.6% 93%  
268 0.8% 92%  
269 0.3% 92%  
270 0.3% 91%  
271 1.2% 91%  
272 0.4% 90%  
273 2% 90%  
274 1.2% 87%  
275 3% 86%  
276 0.1% 83%  
277 1.0% 83%  
278 0.6% 82%  
279 0.2% 82%  
280 1.3% 81%  
281 3% 80%  
282 2% 77%  
283 0.5% 75%  
284 0.7% 75%  
285 2% 74%  
286 3% 72%  
287 0.8% 69%  
288 5% 69%  
289 0.1% 64%  
290 2% 64%  
291 1.2% 62%  
292 6% 60%  
293 1.1% 55% Median
294 3% 53%  
295 3% 50%  
296 1.3% 47%  
297 0.6% 46%  
298 13% 45%  
299 0.7% 32%  
300 0.3% 31%  
301 3% 31%  
302 0.5% 28%  
303 2% 28%  
304 0.3% 25%  
305 0.7% 25%  
306 0.8% 24%  
307 2% 23%  
308 0.2% 22%  
309 1.4% 22%  
310 0.2% 20%  
311 2% 20%  
312 1.3% 18%  
313 0.6% 16%  
314 0.2% 16%  
315 2% 15%  
316 0.4% 14%  
317 0.4% 13%  
318 2% 13%  
319 0.6% 11%  
320 1.1% 11%  
321 0.4% 10% Last Result
322 0.3% 9%  
323 0% 9%  
324 0.9% 9%  
325 0.1% 8%  
326 0.3% 8% Majority
327 4% 8%  
328 0.4% 4%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.4% 3%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.6% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 0.6%  
336 0.2% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.2% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.8% 99.4%  
258 0.1% 98.6%  
259 0.1% 98%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 2% 98%  
263 0.5% 95%  
264 1.5% 95%  
265 0.5% 93%  
266 0.5% 93%  
267 0.4% 92%  
268 0.8% 92%  
269 0.2% 91%  
270 0.4% 91%  
271 1.3% 91%  
272 0.6% 89%  
273 2% 89%  
274 3% 87%  
275 0.5% 84%  
276 0.4% 83%  
277 1.1% 83%  
278 0.2% 82%  
279 0.7% 81%  
280 3% 81%  
281 2% 78%  
282 0.8% 76%  
283 0.7% 75%  
284 0.5% 74%  
285 4% 74%  
286 2% 70%  
287 1.1% 68%  
288 4% 67%  
289 0.1% 63%  
290 8% 63%  
291 0.8% 55%  
292 4% 54%  
293 0.5% 50% Median
294 0.5% 50%  
295 4% 49%  
296 0.5% 45%  
297 5% 45%  
298 9% 40%  
299 0.8% 31%  
300 0.5% 31%  
301 3% 30%  
302 2% 27%  
303 1.1% 25%  
304 1.0% 24%  
305 0.6% 23%  
306 0.3% 23%  
307 0.7% 22%  
308 0.4% 21%  
309 2% 21%  
310 2% 19%  
311 1.2% 18%  
312 0.7% 16%  
313 0.5% 16%  
314 0.5% 15%  
315 1.2% 15%  
316 0.5% 14%  
317 0.4% 13% Last Result
318 2% 13%  
319 2% 11%  
320 0.2% 9%  
321 0.1% 9%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0% 9%  
324 0.8% 9%  
325 0.1% 8%  
326 0.3% 8% Majority
327 4% 7%  
328 0.4% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 1.0% 2%  
332 0.7% 1.3%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.4% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.5%  
241 0.1% 99.4%  
242 1.3% 99.3%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0% 98%  
246 0.1% 98%  
247 0.3% 97%  
248 0.2% 97%  
249 0.1% 97%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 1.2% 96%  
253 0.4% 95%  
254 1.2% 94%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 0.4% 93%  
257 2% 93%  
258 1.1% 91%  
259 0.3% 90%  
260 2% 90%  
261 2% 87%  
262 4% 86%  
263 0.9% 82%  
264 1.3% 81%  
265 2% 79%  
266 0.7% 78% Last Result
267 0.3% 77%  
268 0.6% 77%  
269 0.2% 76%  
270 0.3% 76%  
271 2% 76%  
272 1.3% 74%  
273 9% 73%  
274 2% 64%  
275 0.1% 63%  
276 3% 63%  
277 3% 59%  
278 1.4% 56%  
279 4% 55%  
280 0.1% 51%  
281 0.3% 51%  
282 0.4% 51% Median
283 0.2% 51%  
284 2% 50%  
285 0.5% 48%  
286 1.1% 48%  
287 0.5% 47%  
288 3% 46%  
289 1.3% 43%  
290 10% 42%  
291 0.3% 31%  
292 3% 31%  
293 2% 28%  
294 3% 26%  
295 0.4% 23%  
296 0.3% 22%  
297 2% 22%  
298 2% 20%  
299 0.5% 19%  
300 0.9% 18%  
301 1.3% 17%  
302 0.3% 16%  
303 1.2% 16%  
304 0.8% 14%  
305 0.3% 14%  
306 0.2% 13%  
307 0.2% 13%  
308 3% 13%  
309 1.1% 10%  
310 0.5% 9%  
311 1.2% 9%  
312 0.4% 8%  
313 0.6% 7%  
314 0.6% 7%  
315 0.5% 6%  
316 0.3% 6%  
317 0.1% 5%  
318 0% 5%  
319 0.1% 5%  
320 0.1% 5%  
321 0.4% 5%  
322 2% 5%  
323 0.7% 2%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.9%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.3% 0.7%  
331 0.3% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.4% 99.9%  
240 1.0% 99.4%  
241 0.1% 98%  
242 0.6% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.2% 98%  
246 0% 97%  
247 0.2% 97%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.5% 96%  
251 0.1% 96%  
252 2% 96%  
253 0.3% 93%  
254 0.1% 93%  
255 0.6% 93%  
256 0.6% 92%  
257 2% 92%  
258 0.6% 90%  
259 0.2% 90%  
260 4% 89%  
261 0.7% 85%  
262 4% 85% Last Result
263 0.6% 81%  
264 2% 80%  
265 0.1% 78%  
266 1.1% 78%  
267 0.1% 76%  
268 0.1% 76%  
269 0.2% 76%  
270 2% 76%  
271 0.9% 74%  
272 1.2% 73%  
273 8% 72%  
274 2% 64%  
275 4% 62%  
276 2% 58%  
277 0.2% 56%  
278 1.3% 56%  
279 3% 55%  
280 0.3% 51%  
281 0.4% 51%  
282 0.6% 51% Median
283 0.2% 50%  
284 3% 50%  
285 1.0% 47%  
286 0.6% 46%  
287 0.3% 46%  
288 8% 45%  
289 5% 37%  
290 0.6% 32%  
291 0.4% 31%  
292 5% 31%  
293 0.1% 26%  
294 3% 26%  
295 0.3% 22%  
296 1.1% 22%  
297 2% 21%  
298 2% 19%  
299 0.8% 18%  
300 0.8% 17%  
301 0.9% 16%  
302 0.9% 15%  
303 0.4% 14%  
304 0.4% 14%  
305 0.7% 13%  
306 0.1% 13%  
307 2% 13%  
308 2% 11%  
309 0.1% 9%  
310 0.9% 9%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 0.3% 7%  
313 0.8% 7%  
314 0.7% 6%  
315 0% 5%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.1% 5%  
318 0% 5%  
319 0% 5%  
320 0.1% 5%  
321 3% 5%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 1.0% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.3%  
325 0% 1.0%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.8%  
329 0.4% 0.7%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0.2% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations