Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 27–29 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.9% 40.5–43.3% 40.1–43.7% 39.8–44.1% 39.1–44.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.9% 37.5–40.3% 37.1–40.7% 36.8–41.0% 36.1–41.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 323 299–339 291–342 287–345 276–352
Labour Party 262 257 240–283 236–291 233–298 227–309
Liberal Democrats 12 17 13–20 11–21 9–22 7–24
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 37 19–46 13–48 8–49 4–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.1%  
281 0.2% 98.8%  
282 0.1% 98.6%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.3% 97%  
289 0.6% 97%  
290 1.0% 96%  
291 0.4% 95%  
292 0.4% 95%  
293 0.6% 94%  
294 0.9% 94%  
295 0.4% 93%  
296 0.7% 93%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 1.3% 91%  
299 0.7% 90%  
300 1.3% 89%  
301 0.8% 88%  
302 1.5% 87%  
303 2% 86%  
304 1.1% 84%  
305 1.2% 83%  
306 1.2% 82%  
307 0.7% 81%  
308 2% 80%  
309 2% 78%  
310 3% 76%  
311 1.1% 73%  
312 2% 72%  
313 3% 71%  
314 3% 68%  
315 1.4% 65%  
316 0.8% 63%  
317 1.1% 63% Last Result
318 2% 62%  
319 4% 59%  
320 2% 56%  
321 2% 54%  
322 1.4% 52%  
323 1.0% 51% Median
324 3% 50%  
325 2% 47%  
326 1.2% 45% Majority
327 5% 44%  
328 1.4% 38%  
329 3% 37%  
330 4% 33%  
331 2% 29%  
332 3% 27%  
333 3% 24%  
334 4% 21%  
335 3% 18%  
336 1.3% 15%  
337 2% 13%  
338 1.3% 12%  
339 2% 10%  
340 1.1% 8%  
341 2% 7%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 0.7% 5%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 1.1% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 98.9%  
231 0.3% 98.8%  
232 0.4% 98.5%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 1.1% 97%  
235 0.6% 96%  
236 1.0% 96%  
237 0.3% 95%  
238 0.6% 95%  
239 3% 94%  
240 1.2% 91%  
241 3% 90%  
242 4% 87%  
243 2% 83%  
244 3% 81%  
245 3% 78%  
246 2% 74%  
247 3% 72%  
248 0.8% 69%  
249 0.9% 68%  
250 2% 68%  
251 3% 65%  
252 2% 62%  
253 3% 61%  
254 2% 57%  
255 2% 55%  
256 3% 53%  
257 3% 50% Median
258 1.2% 48%  
259 1.0% 46%  
260 2% 45%  
261 2% 44%  
262 2% 42% Last Result
263 3% 41%  
264 5% 38%  
265 3% 33%  
266 0.8% 30%  
267 3% 30%  
268 0.5% 27%  
269 0.9% 26%  
270 0.6% 25%  
271 1.1% 25%  
272 2% 24%  
273 0.6% 22%  
274 1.2% 21%  
275 2% 20%  
276 2% 18%  
277 1.2% 16%  
278 1.4% 15%  
279 0.9% 14%  
280 2% 13%  
281 0.8% 11%  
282 0.5% 11%  
283 0.3% 10%  
284 0.4% 10%  
285 1.1% 9%  
286 0.5% 8%  
287 0.5% 8%  
288 0.7% 7%  
289 0.9% 7%  
290 0.2% 6%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 0.3% 5%  
293 0.2% 4%  
294 0.3% 4%  
295 0.7% 4%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.3% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.2% 1.3%  
303 0.1% 1.2%  
304 0.2% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.6% 99.8%  
8 0.5% 99.2%  
9 1.4% 98.7%  
10 1.1% 97%  
11 3% 96%  
12 2% 93% Last Result
13 3% 91%  
14 4% 89%  
15 10% 84%  
16 16% 74%  
17 22% 58% Median
18 20% 37%  
19 5% 16%  
20 3% 11%  
21 3% 8%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.1% 1.2%  
24 0.7% 1.1%  
25 0% 0.4%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 0.2% 99.5%  
5 0.5% 99.3%  
6 0.3% 98.8%  
7 0.4% 98.5%  
8 1.2% 98%  
9 0.7% 97%  
10 0.3% 96%  
11 0.1% 96%  
12 0.4% 96%  
13 1.1% 95%  
14 2% 94%  
15 0.3% 93%  
16 0.6% 92%  
17 0.9% 92%  
18 0.3% 91%  
19 4% 90%  
20 2% 87%  
21 4% 85%  
22 0.4% 81%  
23 4% 80%  
24 1.2% 76%  
25 0.9% 75%  
26 3% 74%  
27 3% 71%  
28 0.8% 68%  
29 2% 68%  
30 1.2% 66%  
31 0.6% 64%  
32 3% 64%  
33 2% 61%  
34 1.0% 59%  
35 4% 58% Last Result
36 3% 54%  
37 2% 51% Median
38 9% 49%  
39 6% 40%  
40 7% 34%  
41 6% 27%  
42 3% 20%  
43 3% 17%  
44 1.0% 15%  
45 2% 14%  
46 5% 12%  
47 0.9% 7%  
48 3% 7%  
49 1.3% 4%  
50 0.4% 2%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.2% 1.0%  
53 0.5% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Median
1 11% 35%  
2 17% 24%  
3 4% 7%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 357 93% 330–375 322–379 315–381 303–389
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 357 92% 330–374 321–377 314–380 303–388
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 340 77% 315–354 308–358 304–361 294–368
Conservative Party 317 323 45% 299–339 291–342 287–345 276–352
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 324 47% 299–339 292–343 287–345 277–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 307 17% 291–332 288–339 285–343 278–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 306 17% 291–331 288–338 285–343 277–353
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 291 3% 276–315 272–322 269–327 262–336
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 290 3% 275–314 272–321 268–326 261–335
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 273 0.7% 256–300 253–309 250–316 243–327
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 273 0.6% 256–300 252–308 249–315 242–327
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 257 0% 241–284 238–291 234–298 227–309
Labour Party 262 257 0% 240–283 236–291 233–298 227–309

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.3%  
308 0.1% 99.2%  
309 0.2% 99.1%  
310 0.2% 99.0%  
311 0.2% 98.7%  
312 0.3% 98.6%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.5% 97%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 0.2% 96%  
319 0.3% 96%  
320 0.2% 96%  
321 0.2% 95%  
322 0.8% 95%  
323 0.6% 94%  
324 0.8% 94%  
325 0.3% 93%  
326 0.5% 93% Majority
327 0.7% 92%  
328 0.7% 92%  
329 0.4% 91%  
330 0.6% 91%  
331 0.6% 90%  
332 0.3% 89%  
333 0.9% 89%  
334 2% 88%  
335 1.0% 86%  
336 1.2% 85%  
337 1.4% 84%  
338 2% 82%  
339 0.6% 80%  
340 2% 80%  
341 1.1% 77%  
342 0.9% 76%  
343 1.0% 76%  
344 1.0% 74%  
345 0.7% 74%  
346 2% 73%  
347 1.5% 71%  
348 3% 69%  
349 3% 66%  
350 2% 63%  
351 2% 61%  
352 2% 59%  
353 1.3% 57%  
354 1.2% 56%  
355 2% 55%  
356 0.9% 53% Last Result
357 4% 52%  
358 3% 49%  
359 2% 46%  
360 2% 44% Median
361 2% 42%  
362 3% 40%  
363 2% 36%  
364 2% 34%  
365 2% 33%  
366 3% 31%  
367 2% 28%  
368 2% 26%  
369 3% 24%  
370 2% 21%  
371 3% 19%  
372 2% 16%  
373 2% 14%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.1% 8%  
377 1.2% 7%  
378 0.4% 5%  
379 0.9% 5%  
380 1.1% 4%  
381 0.8% 3%  
382 0.3% 2%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.1% 1.5%  
385 0.2% 1.3%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.3% 0.9%  
388 0.1% 0.6%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0% 99.3%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.1%  
309 0.2% 98.9%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0.2% 98.6%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.4% 98%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.7% 97%  
318 0.2% 96%  
319 0.3% 96%  
320 0.2% 96%  
321 0.4% 95%  
322 0.8% 95%  
323 0.6% 94%  
324 0.6% 94%  
325 0.7% 93%  
326 0.5% 92% Majority
327 0.6% 92%  
328 0.6% 91%  
329 0.4% 90%  
330 0.4% 90%  
331 0.5% 90%  
332 1.1% 89%  
333 0.9% 88%  
334 2% 87%  
335 2% 85%  
336 0.8% 84%  
337 1.5% 83%  
338 2% 81%  
339 0.9% 79%  
340 2% 78%  
341 0.9% 77%  
342 1.2% 76%  
343 1.0% 74%  
344 0.9% 73%  
345 0.6% 73%  
346 2% 72%  
347 2% 70%  
348 4% 68%  
349 2% 64%  
350 2% 62%  
351 3% 60%  
352 0.8% 57% Last Result
353 1.1% 56%  
354 1.3% 55%  
355 2% 54%  
356 2% 52%  
357 3% 51%  
358 2% 47%  
359 3% 45%  
360 2% 42% Median
361 2% 40%  
362 3% 38%  
363 3% 35%  
364 1.4% 32%  
365 0.7% 31%  
366 3% 30%  
367 2% 27%  
368 2% 24%  
369 4% 22%  
370 2% 19%  
371 2% 17%  
372 2% 14%  
373 2% 13%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 9%  
376 0.4% 6%  
377 1.0% 6%  
378 0.6% 5%  
379 1.2% 4%  
380 0.7% 3%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.5% 2%  
384 0.2% 1.2%  
385 0.2% 1.1%  
386 0.2% 0.9%  
387 0.2% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.4%  
296 0.2% 99.2%  
297 0.1% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 98.9%  
299 0.2% 98.7%  
300 0.2% 98.5%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 0.5% 97%  
307 0.5% 96%  
308 0.7% 96%  
309 0.3% 95%  
310 0.3% 95%  
311 1.0% 94%  
312 0.3% 93%  
313 1.1% 93%  
314 0.7% 92%  
315 1.5% 91%  
316 0.6% 90%  
317 1.5% 89%  
318 1.3% 88%  
319 0.6% 86%  
320 1.1% 86%  
321 1.4% 85%  
322 2% 83%  
323 1.0% 81%  
324 1.1% 80%  
325 2% 79%  
326 0.8% 77% Majority
327 3% 77%  
328 3% 74%  
329 1.3% 71% Last Result
330 2% 70%  
331 3% 68%  
332 2% 65%  
333 1.0% 63%  
334 2% 62%  
335 2% 60%  
336 1.2% 58%  
337 3% 57%  
338 2% 54%  
339 2% 52%  
340 3% 50% Median
341 1.3% 47%  
342 2% 46%  
343 2% 44%  
344 3% 42%  
345 4% 39%  
346 3% 35%  
347 4% 32%  
348 2% 28%  
349 3% 25%  
350 3% 23%  
351 4% 20%  
352 2% 16%  
353 3% 14%  
354 2% 11%  
355 1.4% 10%  
356 2% 8%  
357 0.9% 7%  
358 1.4% 6%  
359 0.8% 4%  
360 0.8% 4%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.7% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.2% 1.3%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.1%  
281 0.2% 98.8%  
282 0.1% 98.6%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.3% 97%  
289 0.6% 97%  
290 1.0% 96%  
291 0.4% 95%  
292 0.4% 95%  
293 0.6% 94%  
294 0.9% 94%  
295 0.4% 93%  
296 0.7% 93%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 1.3% 91%  
299 0.7% 90%  
300 1.3% 89%  
301 0.8% 88%  
302 1.5% 87%  
303 2% 86%  
304 1.1% 84%  
305 1.2% 83%  
306 1.2% 82%  
307 0.7% 81%  
308 2% 80%  
309 2% 78%  
310 3% 76%  
311 1.1% 73%  
312 2% 72%  
313 3% 71%  
314 3% 68%  
315 1.4% 65%  
316 0.8% 63%  
317 1.1% 63% Last Result
318 2% 62%  
319 4% 59%  
320 2% 56%  
321 2% 54%  
322 1.4% 52%  
323 1.0% 51% Median
324 3% 50%  
325 2% 47%  
326 1.2% 45% Majority
327 5% 44%  
328 1.4% 38%  
329 3% 37%  
330 4% 33%  
331 2% 29%  
332 3% 27%  
333 3% 24%  
334 4% 21%  
335 3% 18%  
336 1.3% 15%  
337 2% 13%  
338 1.3% 12%  
339 2% 10%  
340 1.1% 8%  
341 2% 7%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 0.7% 5%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 1.1% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0.3% 99.0%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.2% 98.6%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.3% 97%  
289 0.5% 97%  
290 1.0% 97%  
291 0.6% 96%  
292 0.2% 95%  
293 0.8% 95%  
294 0.4% 94%  
295 0.5% 94%  
296 1.0% 93%  
297 0.3% 92%  
298 1.0% 92%  
299 1.0% 91%  
300 1.1% 90%  
301 0.9% 89%  
302 1.1% 88%  
303 1.4% 87%  
304 2% 86%  
305 1.4% 84%  
306 0.9% 83%  
307 0.9% 82%  
308 1.4% 81%  
309 2% 79%  
310 3% 77%  
311 0.5% 74%  
312 2% 74%  
313 2% 72%  
314 4% 70%  
315 1.5% 66%  
316 0.8% 64%  
317 1.4% 64%  
318 1.1% 62%  
319 3% 61%  
320 3% 58%  
321 2% 56% Last Result
322 2% 53%  
323 0.9% 51% Median
324 2% 50%  
325 1.1% 49%  
326 1.4% 47% Majority
327 6% 46%  
328 1.4% 40%  
329 4% 39%  
330 4% 35%  
331 2% 31%  
332 3% 29%  
333 3% 26%  
334 3% 23%  
335 3% 20%  
336 2% 17%  
337 2% 15%  
338 2% 14%  
339 2% 12%  
340 1.0% 9%  
341 2% 8%  
342 1.0% 6%  
343 0.9% 5%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 1.3% 4%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.2% 1.0%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 99.0%  
283 0.3% 98.8%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 1.2% 98%  
286 0.5% 97%  
287 0.6% 96%  
288 1.2% 96%  
289 2% 95%  
290 0.5% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 1.1% 90%  
293 1.3% 89%  
294 2% 88%  
295 2% 86%  
296 4% 83%  
297 3% 79%  
298 3% 76%  
299 2% 73%  
300 4% 71%  
301 3% 67%  
302 2% 64%  
303 5% 62%  
304 1.5% 57%  
305 2% 55%  
306 3% 53%  
307 1.0% 51%  
308 2% 50%  
309 1.4% 48%  
310 2% 47%  
311 3% 45% Median
312 3% 42%  
313 1.0% 39% Last Result
314 0.9% 38%  
315 1.1% 37%  
316 3% 35%  
317 3% 32%  
318 2% 30%  
319 1.4% 28%  
320 2% 27%  
321 2% 24%  
322 2% 22%  
323 0.6% 20%  
324 1.3% 19%  
325 0.7% 18%  
326 1.5% 17% Majority
327 2% 16%  
328 1.3% 14%  
329 1.0% 13%  
330 1.3% 12%  
331 0.7% 11%  
332 1.1% 10%  
333 0.6% 9%  
334 0.5% 8%  
335 0.8% 8%  
336 0.9% 7%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0.4% 6%  
339 0.4% 5%  
340 1.0% 5%  
341 0.7% 4%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.1%  
281 0.2% 98.9%  
282 0.3% 98.7%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 1.3% 98%  
286 0.6% 96%  
287 0.8% 96%  
288 1.1% 95%  
289 2% 94%  
290 1.1% 92%  
291 2% 91%  
292 2% 89%  
293 1.2% 87%  
294 2% 86%  
295 2% 84%  
296 4% 81%  
297 3% 78%  
298 3% 75%  
299 2% 72%  
300 4% 69%  
301 4% 65%  
302 2% 62%  
303 6% 60%  
304 2% 54%  
305 0.9% 53%  
306 2% 52%  
307 0.7% 50%  
308 2% 49%  
309 2% 47% Last Result
310 3% 45%  
311 2% 42% Median
312 2% 40%  
313 1.4% 38%  
314 0.9% 36%  
315 1.3% 36%  
316 3% 34%  
317 3% 32%  
318 1.4% 28%  
319 1.2% 27%  
320 3% 26%  
321 2% 23%  
322 2% 21%  
323 0.8% 19%  
324 1.1% 19%  
325 0.9% 18%  
326 2% 17% Majority
327 1.5% 15%  
328 1.0% 13%  
329 1.1% 12%  
330 1.1% 11%  
331 1.0% 10%  
332 0.7% 9%  
333 0.5% 8%  
334 0.6% 8%  
335 0.9% 7%  
336 0.4% 6%  
337 0.7% 6%  
338 0.2% 5%  
339 0.5% 5%  
340 1.0% 5%  
341 0.6% 4%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.1% 1.2%  
350 0.4% 1.1%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.3%  
265 0.2% 99.1%  
266 0.2% 98.9%  
267 0.2% 98.8%  
268 0.6% 98.5%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.7% 97%  
271 1.0% 97%  
272 1.2% 96%  
273 0.9% 94%  
274 2% 94%  
275 1.2% 92%  
276 2% 91%  
277 3% 89%  
278 2% 86%  
279 4% 85%  
280 3% 80%  
281 2% 77%  
282 3% 75%  
283 4% 73%  
284 3% 69%  
285 5% 66%  
286 3% 61%  
287 0.9% 58%  
288 2% 57%  
289 1.2% 55%  
290 3% 53%  
291 2% 50%  
292 2% 48%  
293 2% 47%  
294 2% 44% Median
295 2% 42%  
296 2% 40%  
297 1.4% 38%  
298 2% 37%  
299 2% 35%  
300 3% 33%  
301 1.4% 31% Last Result
302 2% 29%  
303 3% 27%  
304 1.2% 24%  
305 2% 23%  
306 1.4% 21%  
307 0.9% 20%  
308 1.2% 19%  
309 2% 18%  
310 0.9% 16%  
311 0.8% 15%  
312 1.3% 14%  
313 1.3% 12%  
314 0.8% 11%  
315 1.3% 10%  
316 0.9% 9%  
317 0.7% 8%  
318 0.7% 7%  
319 0.9% 7%  
320 0.4% 6%  
321 0.3% 5%  
322 0.5% 5%  
323 0.6% 5%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 0.6% 4%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.2% 1.3%  
333 0.2% 1.2%  
334 0.1% 1.0%  
335 0.3% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.7%  
262 0.2% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.3% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.7%  
267 0.3% 98.6%  
268 0.8% 98%  
269 0.6% 97%  
270 0.8% 97%  
271 1.1% 96%  
272 1.4% 95%  
273 1.0% 94%  
274 2% 93%  
275 2% 91%  
276 2% 89%  
277 3% 87%  
278 2% 84%  
279 3% 82%  
280 3% 79%  
281 3% 76%  
282 3% 73%  
283 4% 71%  
284 2% 66%  
285 5% 64%  
286 3% 59%  
287 1.4% 56%  
288 2% 55%  
289 1.1% 53%  
290 2% 52%  
291 2% 50%  
292 2% 47%  
293 2% 45%  
294 2% 43% Median
295 1.5% 40%  
296 0.9% 39%  
297 2% 38% Last Result
298 2% 36%  
299 3% 34%  
300 2% 31%  
301 2% 30%  
302 3% 28%  
303 2% 26%  
304 2% 23%  
305 2% 22%  
306 1.0% 20%  
307 0.9% 19%  
308 1.2% 18%  
309 2% 17%  
310 1.3% 15%  
311 0.9% 14%  
312 1.2% 13%  
313 1.0% 12%  
314 1.1% 11%  
315 1.2% 9%  
316 0.9% 8%  
317 0.6% 7%  
318 0.7% 7%  
319 0.6% 6%  
320 0.2% 6%  
321 0.5% 5%  
322 0.5% 5%  
323 0.7% 4%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.4%  
332 0.2% 1.2%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.2% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.2% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.3%  
245 0.2% 99.2%  
246 0.1% 99.0%  
247 0.4% 98.9%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 0.7% 98%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 1.1% 96%  
253 1.0% 95%  
254 0.5% 94%  
255 2% 94%  
256 2% 92%  
257 2% 90%  
258 2% 88%  
259 3% 86%  
260 1.4% 83%  
261 4% 82%  
262 2% 78%  
263 2% 76%  
264 3% 74%  
265 0.7% 70%  
266 1.3% 70%  
267 3% 68%  
268 3% 65%  
269 2% 63%  
270 2% 61%  
271 3% 59%  
272 2% 56%  
273 4% 53%  
274 1.3% 49% Median
275 2% 48%  
276 2% 46%  
277 1.0% 45%  
278 0.8% 44% Last Result
279 2% 43%  
280 3% 41%  
281 2% 38%  
282 4% 36%  
283 2% 32%  
284 2% 30%  
285 0.6% 28%  
286 0.9% 28%  
287 1.1% 27%  
288 0.9% 26%  
289 1.2% 25%  
290 2% 23%  
291 1.2% 22%  
292 2% 21%  
293 2% 19%  
294 0.8% 17%  
295 2% 16%  
296 2% 15%  
297 1.0% 13%  
298 1.4% 12%  
299 0.3% 11%  
300 0.6% 11%  
301 0.5% 10%  
302 0.5% 10%  
303 0.6% 9%  
304 0.5% 8%  
305 0.4% 8%  
306 1.0% 8%  
307 0.6% 7%  
308 0.9% 6%  
309 0.3% 5%  
310 0.3% 5%  
311 0.2% 4%  
312 0.3% 4%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.4% 3%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.4%  
321 0.1% 1.3%  
322 0.2% 1.1%  
323 0.1% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.3% 99.5%  
244 0.2% 99.2%  
245 0.3% 99.0%  
246 0.1% 98.7%  
247 0.3% 98.6%  
248 0.5% 98%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 1.1% 97%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 0.7% 95%  
253 1.1% 95%  
254 0.7% 94%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 91%  
257 2% 88%  
258 2% 86%  
259 3% 84%  
260 2% 82%  
261 3% 80%  
262 2% 77%  
263 2% 74%  
264 3% 72%  
265 2% 69%  
266 1.3% 67%  
267 2% 66%  
268 3% 64%  
269 2% 61%  
270 1.0% 58%  
271 3% 58%  
272 3% 55%  
273 4% 52%  
274 1.1% 48% Last Result, Median
275 2% 47%  
276 1.3% 45%  
277 1.1% 44%  
278 1.3% 43%  
279 2% 42%  
280 2% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 4% 35%  
283 2% 31%  
284 2% 30%  
285 0.7% 27%  
286 0.9% 27%  
287 1.0% 26%  
288 0.8% 25%  
289 1.1% 24%  
290 2% 23%  
291 0.6% 20%  
292 2% 20%  
293 2% 18%  
294 1.2% 16%  
295 0.7% 15%  
296 2% 15%  
297 1.0% 12%  
298 0.7% 11%  
299 0.4% 11%  
300 0.7% 10%  
301 0.4% 10%  
302 0.7% 9%  
303 0.6% 8%  
304 0.3% 8%  
305 0.6% 8%  
306 0.8% 7%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 0.9% 6%  
309 0.3% 5%  
310 0.2% 5%  
311 0.2% 4%  
312 0.3% 4%  
313 0.7% 4%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.1% 1.4%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 1.1%  
322 0.1% 0.9%  
323 0.1% 0.8%  
324 0% 0.8%  
325 0.2% 0.7%  
326 0% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.2% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.0%  
232 0.5% 98.8%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 0.7% 98%  
235 0.6% 97%  
236 1.0% 96%  
237 0.3% 95%  
238 0.4% 95%  
239 3% 95%  
240 1.1% 92%  
241 2% 91%  
242 3% 89%  
243 2% 86%  
244 5% 83%  
245 3% 78%  
246 1.1% 76%  
247 3% 75%  
248 2% 72%  
249 2% 70%  
250 2% 68%  
251 3% 66%  
252 2% 64%  
253 3% 62%  
254 2% 59%  
255 2% 57%  
256 3% 55%  
257 3% 53% Median
258 2% 50%  
259 1.3% 48%  
260 2% 46%  
261 1.0% 45%  
262 2% 44%  
263 2% 41%  
264 4% 39%  
265 3% 35%  
266 1.0% 32% Last Result
267 3% 31%  
268 0.6% 28%  
269 1.0% 27%  
270 0.7% 26%  
271 1.2% 26%  
272 2% 24%  
273 0.8% 23%  
274 1.3% 22%  
275 1.2% 20%  
276 2% 19%  
277 2% 18%  
278 1.3% 16%  
279 1.1% 15%  
280 1.5% 14%  
281 1.3% 12%  
282 0.6% 11%  
283 0.5% 10%  
284 0.3% 10%  
285 0.6% 10%  
286 0.9% 9%  
287 0.6% 8%  
288 0.5% 8%  
289 1.1% 7%  
290 0.3% 6%  
291 0.9% 6%  
292 0.4% 5%  
293 0.2% 4%  
294 0.3% 4%  
295 0.6% 4%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.3% 3%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.1% 1.3%  
304 0.1% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 1.0%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.2% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 98.9%  
231 0.3% 98.8%  
232 0.4% 98.5%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 1.1% 97%  
235 0.6% 96%  
236 1.0% 96%  
237 0.3% 95%  
238 0.6% 95%  
239 3% 94%  
240 1.2% 91%  
241 3% 90%  
242 4% 87%  
243 2% 83%  
244 3% 81%  
245 3% 78%  
246 2% 74%  
247 3% 72%  
248 0.8% 69%  
249 0.9% 68%  
250 2% 68%  
251 3% 65%  
252 2% 62%  
253 3% 61%  
254 2% 57%  
255 2% 55%  
256 3% 53%  
257 3% 50% Median
258 1.2% 48%  
259 1.0% 46%  
260 2% 45%  
261 2% 44%  
262 2% 42% Last Result
263 3% 41%  
264 5% 38%  
265 3% 33%  
266 0.8% 30%  
267 3% 30%  
268 0.5% 27%  
269 0.9% 26%  
270 0.6% 25%  
271 1.1% 25%  
272 2% 24%  
273 0.6% 22%  
274 1.2% 21%  
275 2% 20%  
276 2% 18%  
277 1.2% 16%  
278 1.4% 15%  
279 0.9% 14%  
280 2% 13%  
281 0.8% 11%  
282 0.5% 11%  
283 0.3% 10%  
284 0.4% 10%  
285 1.1% 9%  
286 0.5% 8%  
287 0.5% 8%  
288 0.7% 7%  
289 0.9% 7%  
290 0.2% 6%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 0.3% 5%  
293 0.2% 4%  
294 0.3% 4%  
295 0.7% 4%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.3% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0.4% 2%  
302 0.2% 1.3%  
303 0.1% 1.2%  
304 0.2% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.8%  
307 0.1% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations