Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 1–4 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.9% 37.3–40.6% 36.8–41.1% 36.4–41.5% 35.7–42.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.9% 37.3–40.6% 36.8–41.1% 36.4–41.5% 35.7–42.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.8–5.5%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.6% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 280 257–305 255–313 249–318 243–329
Labour Party 262 274 252–295 242–299 239–303 234–309
Liberal Democrats 12 26 22–28 20–29 18–30 16–33
Scottish National Party 35 51 46–54 40–56 39–56 28–57
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0.1% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.3% 99.7%  
244 1.2% 99.4%  
245 0% 98%  
246 0.5% 98%  
247 0% 98%  
248 0% 98%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.2% 97%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 0.3% 95%  
255 0.6% 95%  
256 1.2% 95%  
257 4% 93%  
258 0.1% 89%  
259 1.0% 89%  
260 2% 88%  
261 0.8% 86%  
262 3% 86%  
263 2% 82%  
264 1.4% 80%  
265 2% 79%  
266 2% 77%  
267 0.3% 75%  
268 1.2% 75%  
269 2% 74%  
270 1.2% 72%  
271 0.2% 71%  
272 0.2% 70%  
273 0.2% 70%  
274 17% 70%  
275 0.6% 53%  
276 1.1% 53%  
277 0.2% 52%  
278 0.9% 51%  
279 0.1% 50%  
280 10% 50% Median
281 1.3% 40%  
282 0.9% 39%  
283 0.1% 38%  
284 1.3% 38%  
285 1.3% 37%  
286 0.5% 36%  
287 0.1% 35%  
288 0.5% 35%  
289 0.8% 34%  
290 0.7% 34%  
291 0.3% 33%  
292 4% 33%  
293 0.6% 29%  
294 0.9% 28%  
295 5% 27%  
296 0.3% 22%  
297 0.2% 22%  
298 0.4% 21%  
299 0.2% 21%  
300 3% 21%  
301 0.4% 18%  
302 0.9% 18%  
303 2% 17%  
304 3% 15%  
305 5% 11%  
306 0.2% 7%  
307 0.1% 7%  
308 0.1% 6%  
309 0.1% 6%  
310 0.5% 6%  
311 0.4% 6%  
312 0.4% 5%  
313 1.3% 5%  
314 0.2% 4%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0% 3% Last Result
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.5%  
325 0.2% 1.2%  
326 0.2% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.8%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.3% 0.6%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.2%  
238 0.4% 99.0%  
239 2% 98.6%  
240 0.2% 96%  
241 0.6% 96%  
242 0.7% 96%  
243 0% 95%  
244 0.1% 95%  
245 0.3% 95%  
246 0.3% 94%  
247 2% 94%  
248 0.3% 92%  
249 0.4% 91%  
250 0.4% 91%  
251 0.1% 90%  
252 3% 90%  
253 4% 87%  
254 0.1% 83%  
255 0.1% 83%  
256 1.3% 83%  
257 0.1% 82%  
258 2% 82%  
259 2% 79%  
260 0.2% 78%  
261 5% 77%  
262 4% 73% Last Result
263 2% 69%  
264 0.4% 67%  
265 2% 67%  
266 0.4% 65%  
267 0.7% 64%  
268 0.1% 64%  
269 0.5% 64%  
270 0.2% 63%  
271 1.2% 63%  
272 3% 62%  
273 8% 58%  
274 0.8% 51% Median
275 1.1% 50%  
276 0.2% 49%  
277 0.2% 48%  
278 0.5% 48%  
279 17% 48%  
280 0.7% 31%  
281 0.6% 30%  
282 1.4% 30%  
283 0.4% 28%  
284 0.2% 28%  
285 3% 28%  
286 2% 25%  
287 0.1% 23%  
288 1.4% 23%  
289 4% 22%  
290 0.9% 18%  
291 3% 17%  
292 0.4% 14%  
293 0.3% 13%  
294 0.3% 13%  
295 6% 13%  
296 0.2% 6%  
297 0.4% 6%  
298 0.4% 6%  
299 2% 5%  
300 0.4% 4%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 1.2% 2%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.7%  
16 0.4% 99.5%  
17 0.8% 99.1%  
18 0.9% 98%  
19 1.4% 97%  
20 5% 96%  
21 0.9% 91%  
22 4% 90%  
23 8% 86%  
24 4% 78%  
25 20% 74%  
26 15% 54% Median
27 6% 40%  
28 25% 33%  
29 5% 9%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.5% 1.2%  
32 0.1% 0.7%  
33 0.5% 0.6%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.6%  
28 0.1% 99.5%  
29 0% 99.4%  
30 0% 99.4%  
31 0% 99.4%  
32 0% 99.4%  
33 0.1% 99.4%  
34 0% 99.3%  
35 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
36 0.1% 98.6%  
37 0.1% 98.5%  
38 0.7% 98%  
39 3% 98%  
40 1.2% 95%  
41 1.4% 94%  
42 0.4% 93%  
43 0.2% 92%  
44 0.4% 92%  
45 0.6% 92%  
46 6% 91%  
47 1.4% 85%  
48 20% 84%  
49 0.5% 64%  
50 11% 63%  
51 11% 52% Median
52 25% 42%  
53 6% 17%  
54 5% 11%  
55 1.1% 7%  
56 4% 6%  
57 1.2% 1.3%  
58 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 10% 48%  
2 22% 38%  
3 13% 16%  
4 2% 3% Last Result
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 351 89% 325–373 318–375 312–381 301–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 350 86% 323–373 317–375 312–380 301–386
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 329 69% 309–355 306–363 299–366 294–376
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 328 68% 309–355 305–363 297–365 292–374
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 326 51% 300–346 293–350 289–355 280–359
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 324 49% 298–345 293–348 288–354 280–358
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 304 18% 285–330 281–337 276–341 271–350
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 303 5% 275–321 268–326 266–333 256–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 4% 275–321 267–324 264–331 255–336
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 280 1.1% 257–307 255–313 250–318 244–329
Conservative Party 317 280 1.0% 257–305 255–313 249–318 243–329
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 277 0% 252–295 242–299 240–305 236–310
Labour Party 262 274 0% 252–295 242–299 239–303 234–309

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.3% 99.8%  
302 0.2% 99.5%  
303 0% 99.2%  
304 0.2% 99.2%  
305 0% 99.0%  
306 0.4% 99.0%  
307 0.2% 98.5%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.1% 97% Last Result
314 0% 97%  
315 0.5% 97%  
316 0.6% 97%  
317 0.8% 96%  
318 0.9% 95%  
319 0.4% 95%  
320 0.5% 94%  
321 0.1% 94%  
322 0.2% 94%  
323 0.1% 94%  
324 0.1% 93%  
325 5% 93%  
326 3% 89% Majority
327 2% 85%  
328 0.9% 83%  
329 0.4% 83%  
330 3% 82%  
331 0.2% 79%  
332 0.1% 79%  
333 0.5% 79%  
334 0.5% 78%  
335 5% 78%  
336 1.0% 73%  
337 0.6% 72%  
338 4% 71%  
339 0.3% 67%  
340 0.8% 67%  
341 0.5% 66%  
342 0.8% 66%  
343 0.1% 65%  
344 0.5% 65%  
345 1.3% 64%  
346 1.2% 63%  
347 0.3% 62%  
348 0.8% 62%  
349 0.8% 61%  
350 3% 60%  
351 8% 58% Median
352 0.9% 50%  
353 0.1% 49%  
354 1.1% 48%  
355 0.6% 47%  
356 17% 47%  
357 0.2% 30%  
358 0.2% 30%  
359 0.3% 30%  
360 0.1% 29%  
361 2% 29%  
362 3% 28%  
363 0.2% 25%  
364 2% 25%  
365 1.2% 23%  
366 2% 22%  
367 2% 20%  
368 3% 18%  
369 0.2% 15%  
370 2% 14%  
371 0.6% 12%  
372 0.5% 11%  
373 2% 11%  
374 3% 9%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.1% 5%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.5% 4%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0% 2%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 1.1% 2%  
387 0.3% 0.6%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0.1% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.8%  
301 0.4% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.2%  
303 0% 99.2%  
304 0.2% 99.1%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 0.5% 98.8%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0.1% 98% Last Result
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.3% 97%  
314 0% 97%  
315 1.1% 97%  
316 0.4% 96%  
317 0.5% 95%  
318 1.0% 95%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0% 94%  
322 0.2% 94%  
323 3% 93%  
324 2% 90%  
325 2% 88%  
326 3% 86% Majority
327 0.7% 83%  
328 0.1% 82%  
329 0.1% 82%  
330 3% 82%  
331 0.6% 79%  
332 0.2% 78%  
333 0.7% 78%  
334 0.7% 78%  
335 8% 77%  
336 2% 69%  
337 0.2% 67%  
338 0.1% 67%  
339 0.6% 66%  
340 0.5% 66%  
341 0.1% 65%  
342 0.4% 65%  
343 1.0% 65%  
344 1.3% 64%  
345 0.8% 63%  
346 0.2% 62%  
347 2% 61%  
348 1.1% 60%  
349 7% 59%  
350 2% 51%  
351 0.5% 49% Median
352 1.1% 49%  
353 0.7% 48%  
354 0.3% 47%  
355 0.5% 47%  
356 17% 46%  
357 0.5% 30%  
358 0.3% 29%  
359 0.8% 29%  
360 2% 28%  
361 0.1% 27%  
362 3% 27%  
363 1.2% 24%  
364 2% 23%  
365 1.0% 20%  
366 0.5% 19%  
367 2% 19%  
368 4% 17%  
369 0.7% 13%  
370 0.8% 12%  
371 0.3% 11%  
372 0.4% 11%  
373 2% 10%  
374 3% 9%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0.5% 4%  
377 0.2% 4%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.4% 3%  
380 0.4% 3%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.1% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 1.2% 2%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.2% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0.1% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 1.3% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.3% 97%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0.5% 97%  
303 0.3% 96%  
304 0.2% 96%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 0.8% 95%  
307 0.4% 95%  
308 4% 94%  
309 3% 91%  
310 2% 88%  
311 0.7% 86%  
312 0.7% 86%  
313 0.7% 85%  
314 1.0% 84%  
315 3% 83%  
316 0.7% 80%  
317 0.2% 80%  
318 6% 80%  
319 0.1% 74%  
320 0.7% 73%  
321 0.4% 73%  
322 1.3% 72%  
323 1.0% 71%  
324 0.5% 70%  
325 0.9% 69%  
326 16% 69% Majority
327 1.1% 52%  
328 0.4% 51%  
329 1.1% 51%  
330 10% 50%  
331 0.3% 40% Median
332 0.1% 40%  
333 0.2% 39%  
334 0.4% 39%  
335 2% 39%  
336 0.4% 36%  
337 1.3% 36%  
338 0.1% 35%  
339 1.0% 35%  
340 0.6% 34%  
341 0.7% 33%  
342 0.4% 32%  
343 5% 32%  
344 2% 27%  
345 2% 25%  
346 0.6% 23%  
347 0.2% 22%  
348 5% 22%  
349 0.2% 17%  
350 0.4% 17%  
351 0.1% 17%  
352 0.1% 17%  
353 0.1% 16%  
354 0.2% 16%  
355 9% 16%  
356 0.1% 7% Last Result
357 0.9% 7%  
358 0.1% 6%  
359 0.1% 6%  
360 0.4% 6%  
361 0.1% 6%  
362 0.2% 6%  
363 0.9% 5%  
364 0.5% 4%  
365 0.3% 4%  
366 2% 4%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.1% 1.2%  
372 0.3% 1.0%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.3% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 1.2% 99.3%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.2% 97%  
300 0.1% 97%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.8% 96%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 0.8% 95%  
306 0.8% 94%  
307 1.0% 94%  
308 3% 93%  
309 2% 90%  
310 2% 88%  
311 1.0% 85%  
312 2% 84%  
313 0.3% 82%  
314 0.7% 82%  
315 2% 81%  
316 2% 79%  
317 1.2% 78%  
318 4% 77%  
319 0.1% 73%  
320 0.5% 73%  
321 0.9% 72%  
322 2% 71%  
323 0.4% 69%  
324 1.0% 69%  
325 0.1% 68%  
326 17% 68% Majority
327 0.9% 51%  
328 8% 50%  
329 1.3% 43%  
330 2% 41%  
331 0.1% 40% Median
332 1.1% 39%  
333 2% 38%  
334 0.9% 36%  
335 0.5% 35%  
336 0.3% 35%  
337 0.3% 35%  
338 0.2% 34%  
339 1.4% 34%  
340 0.7% 33%  
341 0.1% 32%  
342 2% 32%  
343 5% 30%  
344 2% 25%  
345 3% 22%  
346 0.2% 19%  
347 0.2% 19%  
348 2% 19%  
349 0.4% 17%  
350 0.1% 17%  
351 0.2% 16%  
352 0.9% 16% Last Result
353 5% 15%  
354 0.1% 10%  
355 4% 10%  
356 0% 7%  
357 0.6% 7%  
358 0.1% 6%  
359 0% 6%  
360 0.4% 6%  
361 0.2% 5%  
362 0.2% 5%  
363 1.3% 5%  
364 0.8% 4%  
365 0.6% 3%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.2% 2%  
369 0.1% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.4%  
371 0.1% 1.0%  
372 0.3% 0.9%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.2% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.4% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0.7% 99.2%  
283 0.3% 98.6%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0% 98%  
289 0.7% 98%  
290 0.6% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.3% 96%  
293 0.7% 96%  
294 0.4% 95%  
295 0.3% 94%  
296 0.2% 94%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0.4% 94%  
299 3% 94%  
300 1.2% 91%  
301 0.1% 89% Last Result
302 1.0% 89%  
303 7% 88%  
304 0% 82%  
305 0.1% 82%  
306 3% 81%  
307 0.1% 78%  
308 0.8% 78%  
309 5% 77%  
310 0.8% 73%  
311 0.9% 72%  
312 0.2% 71%  
313 0.2% 71%  
314 0.8% 70%  
315 0.7% 70%  
316 0.2% 69%  
317 0.5% 69%  
318 4% 68%  
319 1.1% 64%  
320 0.2% 63%  
321 0.8% 63%  
322 2% 62%  
323 9% 60%  
324 0% 52%  
325 0.6% 52% Median
326 3% 51% Majority
327 0.3% 48%  
328 0.9% 48%  
329 0.4% 47%  
330 0.8% 47%  
331 16% 46%  
332 0.2% 30%  
333 0.4% 30%  
334 2% 30%  
335 2% 28%  
336 0.1% 26%  
337 0.7% 26%  
338 2% 25%  
339 1.4% 23%  
340 2% 21%  
341 3% 19%  
342 0.3% 17%  
343 0.5% 17%  
344 2% 16%  
345 3% 14%  
346 3% 11%  
347 3% 9%  
348 0.4% 6%  
349 0.6% 6%  
350 1.0% 5%  
351 0.4% 4%  
352 0.1% 4%  
353 0.9% 4%  
354 0.2% 3%  
355 0.5% 3%  
356 0% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 1.2% 2%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0.1% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.7% 99.5%  
281 0% 98.9%  
282 0.5% 98.9%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 1.4% 97%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.8% 96%  
292 0.1% 95%  
293 0.8% 95%  
294 0.1% 94%  
295 0.1% 94%  
296 0.3% 94%  
297 2% 94% Last Result
298 2% 92%  
299 0.2% 90%  
300 0.3% 90%  
301 4% 89%  
302 1.0% 86%  
303 3% 85%  
304 0.5% 81%  
305 0.1% 81%  
306 3% 81%  
307 0.4% 78%  
308 1.0% 77%  
309 5% 76%  
310 0.2% 71%  
311 0.2% 71%  
312 0.5% 70%  
313 0.5% 70%  
314 0.4% 69%  
315 4% 69%  
316 0.5% 65%  
317 1.1% 65%  
318 0.8% 63%  
319 0.4% 63%  
320 0.8% 62%  
321 7% 62%  
322 2% 54%  
323 2% 52%  
324 0.7% 50%  
325 1.0% 50% Median
326 0.5% 49% Majority
327 0.3% 48%  
328 1.0% 48%  
329 0.6% 47%  
330 0.4% 46%  
331 17% 46%  
332 0.5% 29%  
333 0.2% 29%  
334 3% 28%  
335 1.2% 26%  
336 0.1% 25%  
337 3% 24%  
338 2% 22%  
339 1.1% 20%  
340 0.2% 19%  
341 3% 19%  
342 0.1% 16%  
343 0.2% 16%  
344 2% 15%  
345 4% 14%  
346 4% 10%  
347 0.5% 6%  
348 0.3% 5%  
349 0.4% 5%  
350 0.9% 5%  
351 0.8% 4%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.2% 3%  
354 0.2% 3%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.1% 2%  
357 1.4% 2%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 1.1% 99.5%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0.8% 97%  
278 0.2% 96%  
279 0.4% 96%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 1.4% 96%  
282 0.2% 94%  
283 2% 94%  
284 1.3% 92%  
285 5% 91%  
286 2% 86%  
287 0.6% 84%  
288 0.5% 84%  
289 2% 83%  
290 1.4% 81%  
291 2% 79%  
292 2% 77%  
293 0.7% 75%  
294 0.1% 74%  
295 1.2% 74%  
296 1.0% 73%  
297 1.5% 72%  
298 0.6% 70%  
299 16% 70%  
300 0.7% 54%  
301 0.3% 53%  
302 1.0% 53%  
303 0.3% 52%  
304 2% 52%  
305 1.1% 50%  
306 0.1% 48% Median
307 0.8% 48%  
308 10% 47%  
309 0.7% 38%  
310 0.3% 37%  
311 1.0% 37%  
312 4% 36%  
313 0.4% 32%  
314 0.3% 31%  
315 0.7% 31%  
316 0.6% 30%  
317 0.4% 30%  
318 0.2% 29%  
319 0.9% 29%  
320 0.7% 28%  
321 5% 28%  
322 1.0% 23%  
323 0.1% 22%  
324 3% 22%  
325 0.5% 19%  
326 0.1% 18% Majority
327 7% 18%  
328 1.0% 12%  
329 0% 11% Last Result
330 1.2% 11%  
331 3% 9%  
332 0.3% 6%  
333 0.1% 6%  
334 0.2% 6%  
335 0.3% 6%  
336 0.3% 6%  
337 0.5% 5%  
338 0.6% 5%  
339 0.2% 4%  
340 0.6% 4%  
341 0.9% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0% 2%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.6% 1.4%  
349 0.1% 0.8%  
350 0.4% 0.7%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.2% 99.8%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.5%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.2%  
260 0.4% 99.0%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.2% 98.5%  
263 0% 98%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 1.3% 98%  
267 1.1% 96%  
268 0.4% 95%  
269 0.2% 95%  
270 0.4% 95%  
271 0% 94%  
272 0% 94%  
273 0.5% 94%  
274 0.2% 94%  
275 4% 93%  
276 0.1% 90%  
277 5% 90%  
278 0.8% 85% Last Result
279 0.2% 84%  
280 0.2% 84%  
281 0.3% 83%  
282 2% 83%  
283 0.2% 81%  
284 0.2% 81%  
285 3% 81%  
286 2% 78%  
287 5% 76%  
288 2% 70%  
289 0.1% 68%  
290 0.8% 68%  
291 1.3% 67%  
292 0.2% 66%  
293 0.3% 66%  
294 0.3% 65%  
295 0.5% 65%  
296 0.9% 65%  
297 2% 64%  
298 0.9% 62%  
299 0.7% 61%  
300 2% 60% Median
301 1.4% 59%  
302 0.3% 57%  
303 8% 57%  
304 17% 50%  
305 0.1% 32%  
306 0.5% 32%  
307 0.7% 32%  
308 1.4% 31%  
309 2% 29%  
310 0.4% 28%  
311 0.3% 28%  
312 4% 27%  
313 0.5% 24%  
314 2% 23%  
315 0.7% 21%  
316 2% 20%  
317 0.3% 18%  
318 2% 18%  
319 1.3% 16%  
320 2% 15%  
321 3% 13%  
322 0.3% 10%  
323 2% 10%  
324 1.5% 7%  
325 0.7% 6%  
326 0.6% 5% Majority
327 0.7% 4%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0.1% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 1.2% 2%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.2% 99.8%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0% 99.4%  
257 0.1% 99.4%  
258 0.2% 99.3%  
259 0.2% 99.1%  
260 0.6% 98.9%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0.1% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 1.0% 98%  
265 0.7% 97%  
266 0.7% 96%  
267 0.7% 96%  
268 0.4% 95%  
269 0.1% 95%  
270 0.4% 94%  
271 0% 94%  
272 0.1% 94%  
273 0.8% 94%  
274 0.1% 93% Last Result
275 9% 93%  
276 0.2% 84%  
277 0.1% 84%  
278 0.1% 84%  
279 0.1% 83%  
280 0.4% 83%  
281 0.1% 83%  
282 5% 83%  
283 0.2% 78%  
284 0.7% 78%  
285 2% 77%  
286 2% 75%  
287 5% 73%  
288 0.3% 68%  
289 0.8% 68%  
290 0.7% 67%  
291 0.9% 66%  
292 0.2% 66%  
293 1.2% 65%  
294 0.5% 64%  
295 1.5% 64%  
296 1.3% 62%  
297 0.3% 61%  
298 0.1% 61%  
299 0.2% 60%  
300 2% 60% Median
301 9% 58%  
302 0.5% 49%  
303 1.0% 49%  
304 16% 48%  
305 0.9% 32%  
306 0.3% 31%  
307 0.5% 30%  
308 2% 30%  
309 0.2% 28%  
310 0.3% 27%  
311 0.7% 27%  
312 6% 26%  
313 0.4% 21%  
314 0.8% 20%  
315 1.2% 20%  
316 2% 18%  
317 0.4% 16%  
318 0.4% 16%  
319 0.9% 15%  
320 2% 14%  
321 3% 12%  
322 0.5% 9%  
323 4% 9%  
324 0.6% 5%  
325 0.6% 5%  
326 0.2% 4% Majority
327 0.3% 4%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0.3% 3%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0% 2%  
334 1.2% 2%  
335 0.2% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0.1% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0.1% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 1.1% 99.5%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.4% 97%  
252 0.4% 97%  
253 0.2% 97%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 1.0% 96%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 5% 95%  
258 0.2% 90%  
259 0.6% 90%  
260 0.1% 89%  
261 1.1% 89%  
262 4% 88%  
263 2% 83%  
264 0.5% 81%  
265 0.9% 81%  
266 3% 80%  
267 0.5% 77%  
268 2% 77%  
269 1.4% 75%  
270 0.6% 73%  
271 1.4% 73%  
272 0.5% 71%  
273 0.6% 71%  
274 17% 70%  
275 0.5% 54%  
276 0.1% 53%  
277 0.8% 53%  
278 1.2% 52%  
279 0.5% 51%  
280 2% 51% Median
281 0.1% 49%  
282 8% 49%  
283 2% 41%  
284 0.8% 39%  
285 0.9% 38%  
286 1.2% 37%  
287 1.1% 36%  
288 0.1% 35%  
289 0.4% 35%  
290 0.4% 35%  
291 0.7% 34%  
292 0.2% 34%  
293 0.2% 33%  
294 2% 33%  
295 8% 31%  
296 0.6% 23%  
297 0.7% 23%  
298 0.2% 22%  
299 0.2% 22%  
300 3% 22%  
301 0.2% 18%  
302 0.1% 18%  
303 0.8% 18%  
304 3% 17%  
305 2% 14%  
306 2% 12%  
307 3% 10%  
308 0.2% 7%  
309 0.1% 7%  
310 0.2% 6%  
311 0.1% 6%  
312 0.6% 6%  
313 1.0% 6%  
314 0.5% 5%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.8% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2% Last Result
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.3% 1.4%  
326 0.2% 1.1% Majority
327 0% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.9%  
329 0.4% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0.1% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.3% 99.7%  
244 1.2% 99.4%  
245 0% 98%  
246 0.5% 98%  
247 0% 98%  
248 0% 98%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.2% 97%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 0.3% 95%  
255 0.6% 95%  
256 1.2% 95%  
257 4% 93%  
258 0.1% 89%  
259 1.0% 89%  
260 2% 88%  
261 0.8% 86%  
262 3% 86%  
263 2% 82%  
264 1.4% 80%  
265 2% 79%  
266 2% 77%  
267 0.3% 75%  
268 1.2% 75%  
269 2% 74%  
270 1.2% 72%  
271 0.2% 71%  
272 0.2% 70%  
273 0.2% 70%  
274 17% 70%  
275 0.6% 53%  
276 1.1% 53%  
277 0.2% 52%  
278 0.9% 51%  
279 0.1% 50%  
280 10% 50% Median
281 1.3% 40%  
282 0.9% 39%  
283 0.1% 38%  
284 1.3% 38%  
285 1.3% 37%  
286 0.5% 36%  
287 0.1% 35%  
288 0.5% 35%  
289 0.8% 34%  
290 0.7% 34%  
291 0.3% 33%  
292 4% 33%  
293 0.6% 29%  
294 0.9% 28%  
295 5% 27%  
296 0.3% 22%  
297 0.2% 22%  
298 0.4% 21%  
299 0.2% 21%  
300 3% 21%  
301 0.4% 18%  
302 0.9% 18%  
303 2% 17%  
304 3% 15%  
305 5% 11%  
306 0.2% 7%  
307 0.1% 7%  
308 0.1% 6%  
309 0.1% 6%  
310 0.5% 6%  
311 0.4% 6%  
312 0.4% 5%  
313 1.3% 5%  
314 0.2% 4%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0% 3% Last Result
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.5%  
325 0.2% 1.2%  
326 0.2% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.8%  
328 0.2% 0.8%  
329 0.3% 0.6%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.6%  
236 0% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.4% 99.4%  
239 1.4% 99.1%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.9% 97%  
242 1.3% 96%  
243 0.1% 95%  
244 0.1% 95%  
245 0.2% 95%  
246 0.3% 95%  
247 0.1% 94%  
248 0.2% 94%  
249 2% 94%  
250 1.3% 92%  
251 0.3% 91%  
252 3% 91%  
253 0.1% 87%  
254 0.3% 87%  
255 3% 87%  
256 0.7% 83%  
257 0.1% 83%  
258 3% 83%  
259 0.1% 80%  
260 2% 80%  
261 5% 78%  
262 0.3% 73%  
263 1.2% 73%  
264 2% 72%  
265 3% 70%  
266 0.1% 67% Last Result
267 0.7% 67%  
268 1.0% 66%  
269 1.3% 65%  
270 0.2% 64%  
271 0.7% 63%  
272 3% 63%  
273 0.4% 60%  
274 2% 60% Median
275 7% 58%  
276 0.5% 51%  
277 0.9% 50%  
278 0.6% 49%  
279 16% 48%  
280 0.8% 32%  
281 1.1% 31%  
282 0.2% 30%  
283 2% 30%  
284 0.1% 28%  
285 0.6% 28%  
286 2% 28%  
287 0.4% 26%  
288 3% 25%  
289 3% 23%  
290 0.1% 19%  
291 3% 19%  
292 1.0% 16%  
293 1.1% 15%  
294 0.6% 14%  
295 5% 13%  
296 1.0% 8%  
297 0.8% 7%  
298 0.3% 6%  
299 1.3% 6%  
300 0.2% 5%  
301 1.0% 4%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.5% 3%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 1.1% 2%  
308 0.2% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.2%  
238 0.4% 99.0%  
239 2% 98.6%  
240 0.2% 96%  
241 0.6% 96%  
242 0.7% 96%  
243 0% 95%  
244 0.1% 95%  
245 0.3% 95%  
246 0.3% 94%  
247 2% 94%  
248 0.3% 92%  
249 0.4% 91%  
250 0.4% 91%  
251 0.1% 90%  
252 3% 90%  
253 4% 87%  
254 0.1% 83%  
255 0.1% 83%  
256 1.3% 83%  
257 0.1% 82%  
258 2% 82%  
259 2% 79%  
260 0.2% 78%  
261 5% 77%  
262 4% 73% Last Result
263 2% 69%  
264 0.4% 67%  
265 2% 67%  
266 0.4% 65%  
267 0.7% 64%  
268 0.1% 64%  
269 0.5% 64%  
270 0.2% 63%  
271 1.2% 63%  
272 3% 62%  
273 8% 58%  
274 0.8% 51% Median
275 1.1% 50%  
276 0.2% 49%  
277 0.2% 48%  
278 0.5% 48%  
279 17% 48%  
280 0.7% 31%  
281 0.6% 30%  
282 1.4% 30%  
283 0.4% 28%  
284 0.2% 28%  
285 3% 28%  
286 2% 25%  
287 0.1% 23%  
288 1.4% 23%  
289 4% 22%  
290 0.9% 18%  
291 3% 17%  
292 0.4% 14%  
293 0.3% 13%  
294 0.3% 13%  
295 6% 13%  
296 0.2% 6%  
297 0.4% 6%  
298 0.4% 6%  
299 2% 5%  
300 0.4% 4%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 1.2% 2%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations