Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 11–13 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.5% 41.1–43.9% 40.7–44.3% 40.4–44.6% 39.7–45.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.5% 38.1–40.9% 37.8–41.3% 37.4–41.7% 36.8–42.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 318 298–339 294–340 287–345 278–355
Labour Party 262 265 243–292 239–296 234–302 228–314
Liberal Democrats 12 15 11–20 11–20 10–21 7–23
Scottish National Party 35 34 14–42 9–45 7–47 4–52
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.3% 99.6%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.4% 99.0%  
282 0% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.5%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.1% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0.9% 97%  
291 0.5% 96%  
292 0.3% 96%  
293 0.3% 95%  
294 3% 95%  
295 0.1% 92%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 0.1% 92%  
298 3% 92%  
299 1.2% 89%  
300 0.6% 88%  
301 0.4% 87%  
302 1.1% 87%  
303 0.5% 86%  
304 6% 85%  
305 4% 79%  
306 0.3% 75%  
307 2% 75%  
308 0.8% 73%  
309 2% 72%  
310 4% 71%  
311 0.4% 67%  
312 2% 67%  
313 0.2% 65%  
314 4% 65%  
315 3% 61%  
316 2% 59%  
317 3% 56% Last Result
318 5% 54% Median
319 2% 49%  
320 0.8% 47%  
321 0.7% 46%  
322 0.3% 45%  
323 0.5% 45%  
324 2% 45%  
325 4% 43%  
326 8% 40% Majority
327 0.3% 32%  
328 7% 31%  
329 0.3% 25%  
330 4% 24%  
331 0.5% 21%  
332 0.8% 20%  
333 1.5% 19%  
334 2% 18%  
335 0.2% 16%  
336 0.2% 15%  
337 0.6% 15%  
338 1.0% 15%  
339 5% 14%  
340 4% 9%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0.9% 5%  
344 0.3% 4%  
345 2% 4%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.1% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.1% 1.2%  
351 0.4% 1.1%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0.2% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0.2% 99.1%  
233 0.3% 98.9%  
234 2% 98.5%  
235 0.1% 97%  
236 0.3% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0.9% 96%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 0.5% 94%  
241 0.2% 94%  
242 1.0% 94%  
243 7% 93%  
244 0.1% 86%  
245 0.7% 86%  
246 0.5% 85%  
247 0.2% 85%  
248 0.5% 85%  
249 0.8% 84%  
250 0.6% 83%  
251 1.4% 83%  
252 0.9% 82%  
253 4% 81%  
254 0.2% 77%  
255 4% 76%  
256 0.3% 72%  
257 0.2% 72%  
258 2% 72%  
259 2% 70%  
260 13% 67%  
261 0.3% 55%  
262 2% 54% Last Result
263 0.8% 53%  
264 1.3% 52%  
265 0.7% 51% Median
266 0.3% 50%  
267 0.4% 50%  
268 2% 49%  
269 0.5% 47%  
270 1.1% 47%  
271 10% 45%  
272 0.1% 35%  
273 10% 35%  
274 0.8% 26%  
275 0.5% 25%  
276 0.7% 24%  
277 2% 24%  
278 0.6% 21%  
279 0.5% 21%  
280 0.5% 20%  
281 3% 20%  
282 2% 16%  
283 0.2% 15%  
284 0.2% 15%  
285 0.4% 14%  
286 0.2% 14%  
287 1.4% 14%  
288 0.2% 12%  
289 1.4% 12%  
290 0.3% 11%  
291 0.2% 10%  
292 3% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 0.4% 6%  
295 0.2% 5%  
296 0.8% 5%  
297 0.3% 4%  
298 0.4% 4%  
299 0% 4%  
300 0.1% 4%  
301 0.1% 4%  
302 1.1% 3%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.8% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.2%  
306 0% 1.1%  
307 0% 1.1%  
308 0.1% 1.1%  
309 0% 0.9%  
310 0.2% 0.9%  
311 0% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.7%  
314 0.4% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0.1% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.9%  
6 0.2% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.6%  
8 0.1% 99.4%  
9 1.0% 99.3%  
10 2% 98%  
11 10% 97%  
12 7% 87% Last Result
13 3% 80%  
14 12% 77%  
15 15% 65% Median
16 11% 50%  
17 11% 38%  
18 6% 27%  
19 8% 22%  
20 9% 13%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 1.0%  
23 0.1% 0.6%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.3% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.5%  
5 0.2% 99.2%  
6 0.6% 99.0%  
7 2% 98%  
8 0.4% 96%  
9 2% 96%  
10 1.1% 94%  
11 0.1% 93%  
12 0% 93%  
13 0.7% 93%  
14 6% 92%  
15 0.4% 86%  
16 0% 85%  
17 0.3% 85%  
18 0.5% 85%  
19 1.3% 84%  
20 6% 83%  
21 2% 77%  
22 0% 75%  
23 1.2% 75%  
24 5% 74%  
25 0.3% 69%  
26 7% 69%  
27 4% 62%  
28 0.2% 58%  
29 3% 58%  
30 0.5% 55%  
31 0.3% 54%  
32 1.4% 54%  
33 0.5% 53%  
34 8% 52% Median
35 9% 45% Last Result
36 0.6% 36%  
37 3% 35%  
38 0.9% 33%  
39 11% 32%  
40 2% 20%  
41 4% 18%  
42 5% 14%  
43 1.4% 9%  
44 0.4% 7%  
45 2% 7%  
46 1.5% 4%  
47 0.6% 3%  
48 0.5% 2%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.4% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Median
1 17% 32%  
2 8% 16%  
3 3% 8%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 351 89% 325–374 317–376 311–382 299–388
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 348 89% 324–374 316–374 311–382 299–387
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 337 71% 313–354 310–355 304–360 294–368
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 318 43% 299–339 294–342 288–345 279–357
Conservative Party 317 318 40% 298–339 294–340 287–345 278–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 313 25% 292–333 290–337 286–344 276–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 313 24% 292–332 289–337 286–343 274–352
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 294 3% 277–318 275–321 271–327 263–337
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 294 3% 277–314 275–321 271–326 262–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 280 1.0% 257–306 255–314 249–320 243–332
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 283 1.0% 257–307 257–315 249–320 244–332
Labour Party 262 265 0% 243–292 239–296 234–302 228–314
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 268 0% 243–292 240–296 234–302 229–314

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.4% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0% 99.3%  
303 0% 99.2%  
304 0% 99.2%  
305 0.2% 99.2%  
306 0% 99.0%  
307 0% 99.0%  
308 0.1% 98.9%  
309 1.1% 98.8%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0.1% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 0.4% 95%  
318 0.1% 95%  
319 0% 95%  
320 0.1% 95%  
321 0% 95%  
322 0.6% 95%  
323 3% 94%  
324 0.9% 91%  
325 1.3% 90%  
326 2% 89% Majority
327 0.5% 87%  
328 0% 87%  
329 0% 86%  
330 3% 86%  
331 0.4% 83%  
332 0.7% 83%  
333 0.6% 82%  
334 1.4% 82%  
335 1.0% 80%  
336 0.1% 79%  
337 0.5% 79%  
338 0.5% 78%  
339 0.1% 78%  
340 4% 78%  
341 2% 74%  
342 1.4% 72%  
343 12% 70%  
344 2% 58%  
345 1.0% 56%  
346 4% 55%  
347 0.2% 51%  
348 0.5% 51%  
349 0.3% 50%  
350 0.1% 50%  
351 1.5% 50%  
352 1.0% 49% Median
353 2% 48%  
354 3% 46%  
355 0.8% 43%  
356 5% 42% Last Result
357 4% 38%  
358 0.3% 33%  
359 0.2% 33%  
360 8% 33%  
361 2% 25%  
362 0.6% 23%  
363 0.9% 23%  
364 5% 22%  
365 2% 17%  
366 0.1% 16%  
367 2% 16%  
368 0.2% 14%  
369 0.1% 14%  
370 0.6% 14%  
371 0.5% 13%  
372 0.9% 12%  
373 0.9% 12%  
374 5% 11%  
375 0.2% 6%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 0.8% 5%  
378 0.4% 4%  
379 0.2% 4%  
380 0.1% 3%  
381 0.2% 3%  
382 0.7% 3%  
383 0.1% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 1.3% 2%  
387 0.3% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0.1% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0.1% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.4% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0% 99.2%  
303 0% 99.2%  
304 0.1% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 99.1%  
306 0.1% 99.0%  
307 0.1% 98.9%  
308 0% 98.8%  
309 1.1% 98.8%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.2% 97%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0% 97%  
315 0.7% 97%  
316 1.1% 96%  
317 0.2% 95%  
318 0% 95%  
319 0.1% 95%  
320 0.3% 95%  
321 0.2% 94%  
322 0.2% 94%  
323 3% 94%  
324 2% 91%  
325 0.4% 89%  
326 2% 89% Majority
327 0.6% 87%  
328 0.4% 86%  
329 0.4% 86%  
330 4% 86%  
331 0.6% 81%  
332 0.2% 81%  
333 0.8% 81%  
334 0.2% 80%  
335 0.9% 80%  
336 0.3% 79%  
337 0.2% 79%  
338 0.6% 78%  
339 0.1% 78%  
340 5% 78%  
341 2% 73%  
342 6% 71%  
343 9% 65%  
344 1.1% 56%  
345 4% 55%  
346 0.3% 51%  
347 0.6% 51%  
348 0.2% 50%  
349 2% 50%  
350 0.1% 48%  
351 1.1% 48%  
352 2% 47% Last Result, Median
353 0.5% 45%  
354 2% 44%  
355 0.9% 42%  
356 4% 41%  
357 5% 38%  
358 0.4% 33%  
359 0.3% 33%  
360 9% 33%  
361 0.8% 23%  
362 1.4% 23%  
363 0.1% 21%  
364 4% 21%  
365 1.3% 17%  
366 0.1% 16%  
367 2% 16%  
368 0.4% 13%  
369 0.5% 13%  
370 0.1% 12%  
371 0.1% 12%  
372 0.8% 12%  
373 1.2% 11%  
374 5% 10%  
375 0.2% 5%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 0.3% 4%  
379 0.1% 3%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.3% 3%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 1.3% 2%  
387 0.2% 0.7%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0.1% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.2% 99.4%  
297 0.1% 99.2%  
298 0.1% 99.1%  
299 0.7% 99.0%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.4% 98%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 0% 97%  
307 0.6% 97%  
308 0.1% 96%  
309 1.1% 96%  
310 3% 95%  
311 0.2% 92%  
312 0.5% 92%  
313 2% 92%  
314 0.2% 90%  
315 0.6% 90%  
316 0.6% 89%  
317 0.6% 88%  
318 0.7% 88%  
319 8% 87%  
320 0.5% 79%  
321 0.4% 79%  
322 2% 78%  
323 2% 77%  
324 0.2% 75%  
325 4% 75%  
326 0.6% 71% Majority
327 1.2% 70%  
328 2% 69%  
329 5% 67% Last Result
330 3% 61%  
331 2% 58%  
332 1.0% 57%  
333 0.2% 56% Median
334 3% 56%  
335 2% 53%  
336 0.1% 51%  
337 15% 50%  
338 1.0% 35%  
339 0.7% 34%  
340 0.2% 34%  
341 0.3% 33%  
342 1.0% 33%  
343 0.4% 32%  
344 0.6% 32%  
345 6% 31%  
346 4% 25%  
347 1.2% 21%  
348 0.9% 20%  
349 0.7% 19%  
350 0.5% 18%  
351 2% 18%  
352 1.1% 16%  
353 4% 15%  
354 4% 10%  
355 1.4% 6%  
356 1.4% 5%  
357 0.5% 4%  
358 0.2% 3%  
359 0.3% 3%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.4%  
365 0% 1.2%  
366 0.4% 1.1%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.3% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.5% 99.1%  
282 0% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.6%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.4% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 0.8% 97%  
291 0.2% 96%  
292 0.3% 96%  
293 0.6% 96%  
294 3% 95%  
295 0.1% 93%  
296 0.2% 92%  
297 0.1% 92%  
298 1.1% 92%  
299 1.2% 91%  
300 1.3% 90%  
301 0.2% 89%  
302 2% 88%  
303 0.1% 86%  
304 6% 86%  
305 4% 80%  
306 0.6% 76%  
307 0.2% 75%  
308 0.5% 75%  
309 2% 74%  
310 4% 72%  
311 0.7% 69%  
312 0.3% 68%  
313 2% 68%  
314 4% 66%  
315 3% 62%  
316 0.3% 59%  
317 4% 59%  
318 5% 55% Median
319 2% 50%  
320 0.5% 48%  
321 0.9% 47% Last Result
322 0.1% 46%  
323 0.6% 46%  
324 2% 45%  
325 0.8% 44%  
326 11% 43% Majority
327 0.4% 32%  
328 0.7% 32%  
329 6% 31%  
330 4% 25%  
331 0.3% 21%  
332 0.7% 21%  
333 1.3% 20%  
334 0.9% 19%  
335 2% 18%  
336 0.4% 16%  
337 0.7% 16%  
338 0.9% 15%  
339 5% 14%  
340 4% 9%  
341 0.4% 6%  
342 0.3% 5%  
343 0.4% 5%  
344 0.3% 5%  
345 2% 4%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.1% 2%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.5%  
351 0.2% 1.3%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.2% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.3% 99.6%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.4% 99.0%  
282 0% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.5%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.1% 97%  
289 0.1% 97%  
290 0.9% 97%  
291 0.5% 96%  
292 0.3% 96%  
293 0.3% 95%  
294 3% 95%  
295 0.1% 92%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 0.1% 92%  
298 3% 92%  
299 1.2% 89%  
300 0.6% 88%  
301 0.4% 87%  
302 1.1% 87%  
303 0.5% 86%  
304 6% 85%  
305 4% 79%  
306 0.3% 75%  
307 2% 75%  
308 0.8% 73%  
309 2% 72%  
310 4% 71%  
311 0.4% 67%  
312 2% 67%  
313 0.2% 65%  
314 4% 65%  
315 3% 61%  
316 2% 59%  
317 3% 56% Last Result
318 5% 54% Median
319 2% 49%  
320 0.8% 47%  
321 0.7% 46%  
322 0.3% 45%  
323 0.5% 45%  
324 2% 45%  
325 4% 43%  
326 8% 40% Majority
327 0.3% 32%  
328 7% 31%  
329 0.3% 25%  
330 4% 24%  
331 0.5% 21%  
332 0.8% 20%  
333 1.5% 19%  
334 2% 18%  
335 0.2% 16%  
336 0.2% 15%  
337 0.6% 15%  
338 1.0% 15%  
339 5% 14%  
340 4% 9%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0.9% 5%  
344 0.3% 4%  
345 2% 4%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.1% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.1% 1.2%  
351 0.4% 1.1%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.4%  
358 0.2% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0.1% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0.1% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.2% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.4% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 98.9%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 2% 98%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.9% 96%  
289 0.1% 95%  
290 0.3% 95%  
291 4% 95%  
292 5% 91%  
293 0.4% 86%  
294 0.7% 85%  
295 0.2% 85%  
296 0.2% 84%  
297 3% 84%  
298 0.8% 81%  
299 0.8% 81%  
300 0.6% 80%  
301 4% 79%  
302 0.4% 76%  
303 7% 75%  
304 0.3% 69%  
305 8% 68%  
306 3% 60%  
307 1.5% 57%  
308 0.7% 55%  
309 0.2% 55%  
310 1.0% 54%  
311 0.5% 53%  
312 2% 53%  
313 5% 51% Last Result
314 3% 46% Median
315 3% 44%  
316 2% 41%  
317 4% 39%  
318 0.4% 35%  
319 1.4% 35%  
320 0.4% 33%  
321 4% 33%  
322 2% 29%  
323 0.8% 28%  
324 2% 27%  
325 0.5% 25%  
326 4% 25% Majority
327 6% 21%  
328 0.5% 15%  
329 1.0% 14%  
330 0.5% 13%  
331 0.6% 13%  
332 1.2% 12%  
333 3% 11%  
334 0.1% 8%  
335 0.1% 8%  
336 0.2% 8%  
337 3% 8%  
338 0.3% 5%  
339 0.3% 5%  
340 0.5% 4%  
341 0.9% 4%  
342 0.2% 3%  
343 0% 3%  
344 0.5% 3%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0% 1.5%  
350 0.4% 1.4%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0% 0.8%  
353 0.3% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.2% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.3%  
278 0.2% 99.3%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.2% 98.9%  
281 0.2% 98.7%  
282 0.1% 98.5%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 2% 98%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.4% 95%  
289 0.3% 95%  
290 0.6% 95%  
291 4% 94%  
292 5% 91%  
293 0.5% 85%  
294 0.6% 85%  
295 0.4% 84%  
296 2% 84%  
297 2% 82%  
298 0.8% 81%  
299 0.7% 80%  
300 0.4% 79%  
301 4% 79%  
302 6% 75%  
303 0.6% 69%  
304 0.4% 68%  
305 11% 68%  
306 0.8% 57%  
307 1.3% 56%  
308 0.7% 55%  
309 0.2% 54% Last Result
310 1.2% 54%  
311 0.2% 53%  
312 2% 52%  
313 5% 50%  
314 4% 45% Median
315 0.7% 41%  
316 3% 41%  
317 4% 38%  
318 2% 34%  
319 0.3% 32%  
320 0.8% 32%  
321 4% 31%  
322 2% 27%  
323 0.5% 26%  
324 0.2% 25%  
325 0.8% 25%  
326 4% 24% Majority
327 6% 20%  
328 0.1% 14%  
329 3% 14%  
330 0.1% 11%  
331 1.3% 11%  
332 1.2% 10%  
333 1.1% 9%  
334 0.2% 8%  
335 0.1% 8%  
336 0.1% 8%  
337 3% 7%  
338 0.6% 5%  
339 0.3% 4%  
340 0.2% 4%  
341 0.8% 4%  
342 0.1% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0% 1.5%  
348 0% 1.4%  
349 0.1% 1.4%  
350 0.5% 1.4%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0.3% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.3%  
265 0.4% 99.2%  
266 0% 98.9%  
267 0.2% 98.8%  
268 0.1% 98.6%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 2% 96%  
276 1.1% 95%  
277 4% 93%  
278 4% 90%  
279 1.1% 85%  
280 2% 84%  
281 1.0% 82%  
282 0.3% 81%  
283 0.8% 81%  
284 1.2% 80%  
285 4% 79%  
286 6% 75%  
287 0.6% 69%  
288 0.4% 68%  
289 1.2% 68%  
290 0.2% 67%  
291 0.1% 66%  
292 1.1% 66%  
293 0.6% 65%  
294 15% 65%  
295 0% 49%  
296 2% 49%  
297 3% 47%  
298 0.2% 44%  
299 1.3% 44% Median
300 1.1% 43%  
301 3% 42% Last Result
302 5% 39%  
303 2% 33%  
304 1.2% 31%  
305 0.6% 30%  
306 4% 29%  
307 0.2% 25%  
308 2% 25%  
309 2% 23%  
310 0.3% 22%  
311 0.5% 21%  
312 8% 21%  
313 0.7% 13%  
314 0.6% 12%  
315 0.5% 12%  
316 0.6% 11%  
317 0.2% 10%  
318 2% 10%  
319 0.6% 8%  
320 0.1% 8%  
321 3% 8%  
322 1.1% 5%  
323 0.1% 4%  
324 0.6% 4%  
325 0% 3%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0.3% 3%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0% 0.4%  
339 0.2% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.3% 99.6%  
263 0.4% 99.3%  
264 0.1% 98.9%  
265 0.1% 98.8%  
266 0% 98.8%  
267 0.2% 98.7%  
268 0.6% 98.5%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.4% 97%  
274 0.2% 96%  
275 2% 96%  
276 0.8% 94%  
277 4% 93%  
278 4% 89%  
279 1.1% 85%  
280 2% 84%  
281 1.3% 82%  
282 0.4% 81%  
283 0.9% 80%  
284 2% 79%  
285 8% 77%  
286 2% 69%  
287 0.8% 68%  
288 0.1% 67%  
289 0.2% 67%  
290 0.4% 67%  
291 0.1% 66%  
292 1.0% 66%  
293 4% 65%  
294 13% 61%  
295 2% 48%  
296 2% 46%  
297 1.4% 44% Last Result
298 0.4% 43%  
299 0.9% 43% Median
300 0.4% 42%  
301 3% 41%  
302 6% 38%  
303 2% 33%  
304 3% 30%  
305 0.4% 27%  
306 4% 27%  
307 2% 23%  
308 0.1% 22%  
309 0.3% 22%  
310 0.3% 21%  
311 0.4% 21%  
312 8% 21%  
313 0.9% 13%  
314 2% 12%  
315 0.8% 10%  
316 0.8% 9%  
317 0.3% 8%  
318 0% 8%  
319 0.6% 8%  
320 0.1% 7%  
321 3% 7%  
322 2% 5%  
323 0.1% 3%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.4% 3% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0% 2%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.1% 1.4%  
332 0.4% 1.4%  
333 0% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.3% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0.1% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.3% 99.5%  
245 1.3% 99.2%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.1% 98%  
249 0.7% 98%  
250 0.2% 97%  
251 0.1% 97%  
252 0.2% 97%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 0.8% 96%  
255 0.6% 95%  
256 0.1% 95%  
257 5% 94%  
258 0.9% 89%  
259 0.9% 88%  
260 0.5% 88%  
261 0.7% 87%  
262 0.1% 86%  
263 0.2% 86%  
264 2% 86%  
265 0.1% 84%  
266 2% 84%  
267 5% 83%  
268 1.3% 78%  
269 0.4% 77%  
270 2% 76%  
271 8% 75%  
272 0.1% 67%  
273 0.4% 67%  
274 4% 66% Last Result
275 5% 62%  
276 1.4% 58%  
277 2% 56%  
278 2% 54%  
279 1.0% 52%  
280 1.5% 51% Median
281 0.1% 50%  
282 0.3% 50%  
283 0.4% 49%  
284 0.1% 49%  
285 4% 49%  
286 1.0% 45%  
287 2% 44%  
288 12% 42%  
289 1.5% 30%  
290 2% 28%  
291 4% 26%  
292 0.3% 22%  
293 0.3% 22%  
294 0.6% 22%  
295 0.1% 21%  
296 1.1% 21%  
297 1.5% 20%  
298 0.5% 18%  
299 0.7% 18%  
300 0.5% 17%  
301 3% 17%  
302 0% 14%  
303 0.3% 14%  
304 0.3% 13%  
305 2% 13%  
306 1.5% 11%  
307 0.7% 10%  
308 3% 9%  
309 0.5% 6%  
310 0% 5%  
311 0% 5%  
312 0% 5%  
313 0.1% 5%  
314 0.4% 5%  
315 1.0% 5%  
316 0.4% 4%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.2% 3%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0% 2%  
322 1.1% 2%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0% 1.1%  
325 0% 1.0%  
326 0.2% 1.0% Majority
327 0% 0.8%  
328 0% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.4% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0.1% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 1.3% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0% 98%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0.3% 98%  
250 0.3% 97%  
251 0.3% 97%  
252 0.1% 97%  
253 0.3% 97%  
254 0.4% 96%  
255 0.7% 96%  
256 0.1% 95%  
257 5% 95%  
258 1.2% 90%  
259 0.8% 89%  
260 0.1% 88%  
261 0.1% 88%  
262 0.5% 87%  
263 0.4% 87%  
264 2% 87%  
265 0.1% 84%  
266 1.4% 84%  
267 4% 83%  
268 0.5% 79%  
269 1.0% 78%  
270 0.8% 77%  
271 9% 77%  
272 0.2% 67%  
273 0.6% 67%  
274 4% 67%  
275 4% 62%  
276 2% 59%  
277 1.3% 57%  
278 0.5% 56% Last Result
279 2% 55%  
280 1.1% 53% Median
281 0.1% 52%  
282 2% 52%  
283 0.3% 50%  
284 0.5% 50%  
285 0.5% 49%  
286 4% 49%  
287 0.9% 45%  
288 9% 44%  
289 6% 35%  
290 2% 29%  
291 5% 27%  
292 0.4% 22%  
293 0.4% 22%  
294 0.2% 22%  
295 0.4% 21%  
296 0.9% 21%  
297 0.1% 20%  
298 0.8% 20%  
299 0.3% 19%  
300 0.4% 19%  
301 4% 19%  
302 0.4% 14%  
303 0.7% 14%  
304 0.3% 13%  
305 2% 13%  
306 0.6% 11%  
307 2% 11%  
308 3% 9%  
309 0.2% 6%  
310 0.2% 6%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 0.1% 5%  
313 0% 5%  
314 0.2% 5%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0% 2%  
322 1.1% 2%  
323 0% 1.2%  
324 0.1% 1.2%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0% 0.8%  
329 0% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.8%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.4% 0.7%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0.1% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0.2% 99.1%  
233 0.3% 98.9%  
234 2% 98.5%  
235 0.1% 97%  
236 0.3% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0.9% 96%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 0.5% 94%  
241 0.2% 94%  
242 1.0% 94%  
243 7% 93%  
244 0.1% 86%  
245 0.7% 86%  
246 0.5% 85%  
247 0.2% 85%  
248 0.5% 85%  
249 0.8% 84%  
250 0.6% 83%  
251 1.4% 83%  
252 0.9% 82%  
253 4% 81%  
254 0.2% 77%  
255 4% 76%  
256 0.3% 72%  
257 0.2% 72%  
258 2% 72%  
259 2% 70%  
260 13% 67%  
261 0.3% 55%  
262 2% 54% Last Result
263 0.8% 53%  
264 1.3% 52%  
265 0.7% 51% Median
266 0.3% 50%  
267 0.4% 50%  
268 2% 49%  
269 0.5% 47%  
270 1.1% 47%  
271 10% 45%  
272 0.1% 35%  
273 10% 35%  
274 0.8% 26%  
275 0.5% 25%  
276 0.7% 24%  
277 2% 24%  
278 0.6% 21%  
279 0.5% 21%  
280 0.5% 20%  
281 3% 20%  
282 2% 16%  
283 0.2% 15%  
284 0.2% 15%  
285 0.4% 14%  
286 0.2% 14%  
287 1.4% 14%  
288 0.2% 12%  
289 1.4% 12%  
290 0.3% 11%  
291 0.2% 10%  
292 3% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 0.4% 6%  
295 0.2% 5%  
296 0.8% 5%  
297 0.3% 4%  
298 0.4% 4%  
299 0% 4%  
300 0.1% 4%  
301 0.1% 4%  
302 1.1% 3%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.8% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.2%  
306 0% 1.1%  
307 0% 1.1%  
308 0.1% 1.1%  
309 0% 0.9%  
310 0.2% 0.9%  
311 0% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.7%  
314 0.4% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0.1% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.2% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0% 99.2%  
232 0.2% 99.2%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 2% 98.9%  
235 0.1% 97%  
236 0.6% 97%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0.3% 97%  
239 1.0% 96%  
240 0.4% 95%  
241 0.8% 95%  
242 1.0% 94%  
243 6% 93%  
244 0.3% 87%  
245 0.4% 86%  
246 0.1% 86%  
247 0.1% 86%  
248 1.2% 86%  
249 0.1% 85%  
250 0.7% 84%  
251 2% 84%  
252 0.4% 82%  
253 4% 81%  
254 0.6% 77%  
255 4% 77%  
256 0.7% 73%  
257 0.2% 72%  
258 0.2% 72%  
259 3% 72%  
260 12% 68%  
261 0.7% 56%  
262 0.2% 55%  
263 2% 55%  
264 2% 54%  
265 0.3% 52% Median
266 0.2% 51% Last Result
267 0.5% 51%  
268 1.4% 51%  
269 2% 49%  
270 0.5% 47%  
271 5% 47%  
272 6% 41%  
273 7% 36%  
274 3% 29%  
275 0.4% 26%  
276 1.1% 25%  
277 3% 24%  
278 0.5% 21%  
279 0.3% 21%  
280 0.6% 21%  
281 3% 20%  
282 0.4% 17%  
283 0.4% 17%  
284 0.4% 16%  
285 0.6% 16%  
286 1.4% 15%  
287 1.4% 14%  
288 0.3% 12%  
289 0.2% 12%  
290 2% 12%  
291 0.3% 11%  
292 3% 10%  
293 2% 8%  
294 0.2% 6%  
295 0.1% 6%  
296 1.2% 6%  
297 0.2% 4%  
298 0.2% 4%  
299 0.2% 4%  
300 0.4% 4%  
301 0% 4%  
302 1.1% 4%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.8% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.3%  
306 0% 1.2%  
307 0.1% 1.1%  
308 0% 1.1%  
309 0% 1.1%  
310 0.2% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.8%  
314 0.4% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0.1% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations