Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 15–16 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.6% 41.2–44.0% 40.8–44.4% 40.4–44.7% 39.7–45.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.6% 37.2–40.0% 36.9–40.4% 36.5–40.8% 35.9–41.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 5.9% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 329 312–340 304–343 300–346 287–354
Labour Party 262 241 236–256 230–263 226–268 220–282
Liberal Democrats 12 3 0–5 0–7 0–8 0–12
Scottish National Party 35 52 44–55 43–56 42–56 38–58
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–6 4–8 4–8 4–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.4% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.2%  
289 0.1% 99.0%  
290 0.4% 99.0%  
291 0.1% 98.6%  
292 0.1% 98.5%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.1% 97%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 2% 97%  
305 0.5% 95%  
306 0.7% 94%  
307 0.2% 94%  
308 0.1% 93%  
309 0.5% 93%  
310 2% 93%  
311 0.2% 91%  
312 3% 91%  
313 6% 88%  
314 1.3% 82%  
315 2% 80%  
316 0.5% 79%  
317 0.2% 78% Last Result
318 0.2% 78%  
319 0.5% 78%  
320 0.3% 78%  
321 0.4% 77%  
322 3% 77%  
323 3% 73%  
324 5% 70%  
325 1.1% 65%  
326 6% 64% Majority
327 0.8% 58%  
328 4% 57%  
329 8% 53% Median
330 2% 45%  
331 3% 43%  
332 5% 40%  
333 5% 35%  
334 6% 30%  
335 3% 24%  
336 2% 21%  
337 4% 19%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0.9% 13%  
340 4% 12%  
341 1.4% 8%  
342 1.3% 7%  
343 1.2% 5%  
344 0.7% 4%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.8% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.6%  
221 0.2% 99.4%  
222 0.2% 99.2%  
223 0% 99.0%  
224 0.1% 99.0%  
225 0.2% 98.9%  
226 1.2% 98.7%  
227 0.6% 97%  
228 0.8% 97%  
229 0.7% 96%  
230 0.5% 95%  
231 2% 95%  
232 0.1% 93%  
233 1.5% 93%  
234 0.5% 91%  
235 0.7% 91%  
236 0.7% 90%  
237 16% 90%  
238 1.1% 74%  
239 8% 73%  
240 13% 64%  
241 1.5% 51% Median
242 0.6% 49%  
243 0.4% 49%  
244 4% 48%  
245 9% 44%  
246 0.6% 35%  
247 1.2% 35%  
248 5% 33%  
249 5% 28%  
250 1.1% 23%  
251 0.4% 22%  
252 0.3% 21%  
253 0.2% 21%  
254 0.5% 21%  
255 6% 20%  
256 4% 14%  
257 0.6% 10%  
258 0.1% 9%  
259 2% 9%  
260 0.6% 7%  
261 0.9% 7%  
262 0.2% 6% Last Result
263 1.2% 6%  
264 0.4% 4%  
265 1.0% 4%  
266 0.2% 3%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.2% 3%  
269 0.1% 2%  
270 0% 2%  
271 0.6% 2%  
272 0.1% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.1% 1.3%  
275 0.1% 1.2%  
276 0% 1.2%  
277 0.1% 1.1%  
278 0% 1.1%  
279 0.4% 1.1%  
280 0.1% 0.7%  
281 0% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 7% 84%  
2 23% 77%  
3 25% 54% Median
4 10% 29%  
5 13% 19%  
6 1.1% 6%  
7 1.5% 5%  
8 1.3% 4%  
9 0.5% 2%  
10 1.0% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.9%  
12 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.7%  
34 0% 99.7%  
35 0% 99.7% Last Result
36 0% 99.7%  
37 0.1% 99.7%  
38 0.9% 99.6%  
39 0.2% 98.7%  
40 0.4% 98.5%  
41 0.2% 98%  
42 0.8% 98%  
43 6% 97%  
44 2% 91%  
45 2% 89%  
46 8% 87%  
47 1.3% 80%  
48 0.7% 79%  
49 6% 78%  
50 0.7% 72%  
51 8% 71%  
52 27% 64% Median
53 2% 37%  
54 6% 34%  
55 19% 28%  
56 7% 8%  
57 0.2% 2%  
58 1.5% 1.5%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100% Last Result
1 77% 77% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 10% 99.9% Last Result
5 78% 90% Median
6 5% 11%  
7 0.8% 7%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 385 100% 368–393 363–398 357–401 343–409
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 380 99.9% 363–388 358–393 351–395 337–404
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 334 77% 317–345 309–348 305–351 292–359
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 332 73% 314–342 309–346 305–348 290–355
Conservative Party 317 329 64% 312–340 304–343 300–346 287–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 301 5% 290–318 288–326 284–330 277–343
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 298 3% 288–316 284–321 283–326 275–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 296 2% 285–313 283–321 279–325 271–338
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 292 1.4% 283–311 279–316 278–321 269–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 250 0% 242–267 237–273 236–279 227–293
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 246 0% 242–261 236–268 232–274 225–288
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 245 0% 237–262 232–268 229–274 222–287
Labour Party 262 241 0% 236–256 230–263 226–268 220–282

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0% 99.8%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.2% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.6%  
343 0.1% 99.5%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.1% 99.3%  
346 0.3% 99.2%  
347 0.1% 99.0%  
348 0.1% 98.9%  
349 0.4% 98.8%  
350 0.1% 98%  
351 0% 98%  
352 0% 98%  
353 0.1% 98%  
354 0.3% 98%  
355 0.3% 98%  
356 0.1% 98% Last Result
357 0.1% 98%  
358 0.3% 97%  
359 0.1% 97%  
360 1.1% 97%  
361 0.5% 96%  
362 0.1% 95%  
363 1.2% 95%  
364 0.9% 94%  
365 0.4% 93%  
366 0.7% 93%  
367 0.7% 92%  
368 1.4% 91%  
369 0.7% 90%  
370 6% 89%  
371 0.3% 83%  
372 4% 83%  
373 0.3% 79%  
374 0.3% 79%  
375 0.9% 79%  
376 0.2% 78%  
377 5% 78%  
378 0.9% 72%  
379 2% 72%  
380 5% 70%  
381 1.3% 65%  
382 7% 63%  
383 0.5% 57%  
384 5% 56%  
385 1.4% 51%  
386 2% 50% Median
387 4% 48%  
388 4% 44%  
389 5% 39%  
390 3% 34%  
391 15% 31%  
392 2% 16%  
393 5% 15%  
394 1.2% 10%  
395 0.8% 8%  
396 0.7% 8%  
397 0.4% 7%  
398 2% 6%  
399 1.0% 5%  
400 1.2% 4%  
401 0.6% 3%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.2% 1.3%  
405 0.3% 1.0%  
406 0% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0.1% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1%  
421 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0% 99.8%  
336 0.2% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.1% 99.4%  
340 0.1% 99.3%  
341 0.3% 99.3%  
342 0% 98.9%  
343 0.1% 98.9%  
344 0.4% 98.8%  
345 0.1% 98%  
346 0% 98%  
347 0% 98%  
348 0% 98%  
349 0.3% 98%  
350 0.3% 98%  
351 0.2% 98%  
352 0.1% 97% Last Result
353 0.3% 97%  
354 0.1% 97%  
355 1.1% 97%  
356 0.4% 96%  
357 0.4% 95%  
358 0.9% 95%  
359 0.7% 94%  
360 0.6% 93%  
361 1.2% 93%  
362 0.5% 92%  
363 1.4% 91%  
364 0.6% 90%  
365 6% 89%  
366 0.7% 83%  
367 3% 83%  
368 0.1% 79%  
369 0.4% 79%  
370 0.7% 79%  
371 0.3% 78%  
372 5% 78%  
373 0.9% 72%  
374 2% 71%  
375 5% 69%  
376 2% 64%  
377 0.2% 63%  
378 6% 63%  
379 6% 56%  
380 1.2% 51%  
381 2% 49% Median
382 4% 47%  
383 7% 44%  
384 5% 37%  
385 5% 32%  
386 11% 27%  
387 1.4% 16%  
388 5% 14%  
389 0.9% 9%  
390 0.9% 8%  
391 0.7% 7%  
392 0.4% 6%  
393 2% 6%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 1.2% 4%  
396 0.3% 2%  
397 0.5% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.2% 1.1%  
400 0.1% 1.0%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.1% 0.7%  
403 0% 0.6%  
404 0.2% 0.6%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0.3% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.2%  
294 0.1% 99.0%  
295 0.4% 99.0%  
296 0.1% 98.6%  
297 0.1% 98.5%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.1% 97%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 2% 97%  
310 0.5% 95%  
311 0.2% 94%  
312 0.3% 94%  
313 0.2% 94%  
314 0.4% 93%  
315 1.3% 93%  
316 0.7% 92%  
317 3% 91%  
318 6% 88%  
319 1.5% 82%  
320 1.0% 80%  
321 0.8% 79% Last Result
322 0.2% 78%  
323 0.1% 78%  
324 0.4% 78%  
325 0.2% 78%  
326 0.5% 77% Majority
327 3% 77%  
328 3% 74%  
329 5% 70%  
330 7% 65%  
331 1.2% 58%  
332 0.4% 57%  
333 1.2% 57%  
334 8% 56% Median
335 2% 47%  
336 5% 46%  
337 4% 40%  
338 5% 36%  
339 7% 31%  
340 3% 24%  
341 0.6% 21%  
342 6% 21%  
343 2% 15%  
344 0.4% 13%  
345 4% 13%  
346 1.4% 9%  
347 2% 7%  
348 1.3% 5%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.7% 3%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.8% 2%  
353 0.3% 1.4%  
354 0.2% 1.2%  
355 0.1% 1.0%  
356 0.2% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.6%  
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0% 99.1%  
294 0% 99.1%  
295 0% 99.1%  
296 0.2% 99.0%  
297 0.2% 98.9%  
298 0.1% 98.7%  
299 0% 98.6%  
300 0.5% 98.5%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.2% 98%  
303 0.1% 98%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.2% 97%  
307 0.4% 97%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 2% 96%  
310 0.2% 95%  
311 0.5% 94%  
312 0.6% 94%  
313 0.6% 93%  
314 4% 93%  
315 1.0% 89%  
316 0.2% 88%  
317 2% 88%  
318 6% 86%  
319 0.4% 80%  
320 1.0% 80%  
321 0.5% 79%  
322 0.3% 78%  
323 0.6% 78%  
324 0.2% 77%  
325 4% 77%  
326 3% 73% Majority
327 5% 70%  
328 0.5% 65%  
329 7% 65% Last Result
330 4% 58%  
331 4% 55%  
332 3% 51% Median
333 13% 48%  
334 10% 36%  
335 0.2% 26%  
336 2% 26%  
337 2% 24%  
338 2% 22%  
339 1.0% 20%  
340 4% 19%  
341 2% 15%  
342 5% 13%  
343 1.5% 8%  
344 0.5% 7%  
345 0.4% 6%  
346 1.3% 6%  
347 1.2% 4%  
348 1.5% 3%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.1% 1.3%  
352 0.3% 1.2%  
353 0.2% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0% 0.5%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0.2% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0.1% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.4% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.2%  
289 0.1% 99.0%  
290 0.4% 99.0%  
291 0.1% 98.6%  
292 0.1% 98.5%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.1% 97%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 2% 97%  
305 0.5% 95%  
306 0.7% 94%  
307 0.2% 94%  
308 0.1% 93%  
309 0.5% 93%  
310 2% 93%  
311 0.2% 91%  
312 3% 91%  
313 6% 88%  
314 1.3% 82%  
315 2% 80%  
316 0.5% 79%  
317 0.2% 78% Last Result
318 0.2% 78%  
319 0.5% 78%  
320 0.3% 78%  
321 0.4% 77%  
322 3% 77%  
323 3% 73%  
324 5% 70%  
325 1.1% 65%  
326 6% 64% Majority
327 0.8% 58%  
328 4% 57%  
329 8% 53% Median
330 2% 45%  
331 3% 43%  
332 5% 40%  
333 5% 35%  
334 6% 30%  
335 3% 24%  
336 2% 21%  
337 4% 19%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0.9% 13%  
340 4% 12%  
341 1.4% 8%  
342 1.3% 7%  
343 1.2% 5%  
344 0.7% 4%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.8% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.2%  
282 0.3% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 1.1% 98.5%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 1.2% 97%  
287 0% 96%  
288 2% 96%  
289 1.4% 94%  
290 4% 93%  
291 0.9% 88%  
292 2% 87%  
293 4% 85%  
294 2% 81%  
295 0.8% 79%  
296 2% 78%  
297 11% 76%  
298 5% 65%  
299 3% 60%  
300 2% 57%  
301 9% 56% Median
302 3% 47%  
303 1.0% 44%  
304 6% 43%  
305 1.1% 36%  
306 0.2% 35%  
307 8% 35%  
308 3% 27%  
309 0.5% 23%  
310 0.5% 23%  
311 0.5% 22%  
312 0.1% 22%  
313 0.2% 22% Last Result
314 0.4% 22%  
315 2% 21%  
316 1.3% 20%  
317 6% 18%  
318 3% 12%  
319 0.2% 9%  
320 2% 9%  
321 0.2% 7%  
322 0.5% 7%  
323 0.2% 7%  
324 0.6% 6%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 1.3% 5% Majority
327 0.9% 4%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.5%  
340 0.4% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.4% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.5%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0.1% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.2% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.3% 99.2%  
279 0.1% 98.8%  
280 0.1% 98.7%  
281 0.4% 98.6%  
282 0.1% 98%  
283 2% 98%  
284 2% 96%  
285 0.5% 94%  
286 0.1% 94%  
287 1.1% 94%  
288 5% 93%  
289 2% 88%  
290 5% 86%  
291 0.9% 81%  
292 2% 80%  
293 0.9% 78%  
294 2% 77%  
295 1.0% 75%  
296 3% 74%  
297 19% 71%  
298 3% 52% Median
299 3% 49%  
300 4% 46%  
301 7% 42% Last Result
302 0.5% 35%  
303 1.5% 35%  
304 4% 33%  
305 6% 29%  
306 0.3% 23%  
307 0.5% 23%  
308 0.3% 22%  
309 0.5% 22%  
310 1.0% 21%  
311 0.5% 20%  
312 6% 20%  
313 2% 14%  
314 0.2% 12%  
315 0.6% 12%  
316 4% 11%  
317 0.6% 7%  
318 0.5% 7%  
319 0.5% 6%  
320 0.3% 6%  
321 1.1% 5%  
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.2% 3%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0.1% 3% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0% 1.5%  
332 0.1% 1.4%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0% 1.0%  
336 0% 0.9%  
337 0% 0.9%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.2% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.4%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.1% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.1%  
277 0.4% 99.0%  
278 0.1% 98.6%  
279 1.1% 98%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 1.2% 97%  
282 0.1% 96%  
283 2% 96%  
284 2% 93%  
285 4% 91%  
286 0.5% 87%  
287 1.4% 87%  
288 6% 85%  
289 0.8% 80%  
290 1.1% 79%  
291 3% 78%  
292 11% 75%  
293 4% 64%  
294 5% 60%  
295 1.4% 54%  
296 9% 53% Median
297 0.9% 44%  
298 0.7% 43%  
299 0.7% 43%  
300 7% 42%  
301 0.4% 35%  
302 8% 34%  
303 3% 27%  
304 0.2% 23%  
305 0.6% 23%  
306 0.4% 22%  
307 0.1% 22%  
308 0.1% 22%  
309 0.8% 22% Last Result
310 1.1% 21%  
311 1.5% 20%  
312 6% 18%  
313 3% 12%  
314 0.8% 9%  
315 1.3% 8%  
316 0% 7%  
317 0.5% 7%  
318 0.3% 6%  
319 0.1% 6%  
320 0.6% 6%  
321 1.4% 5%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0% 3%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.1% 1.5%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 1.0%  
338 0.3% 0.8%  
339 0% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0.1% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0.2% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.1% 99.4%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 99.1%  
274 0.3% 98.9%  
275 0.1% 98.6%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 2% 98%  
279 2% 96%  
280 0.7% 94%  
281 0.3% 94%  
282 1.5% 93%  
283 5% 92%  
284 2% 87%  
285 4% 85%  
286 3% 81%  
287 0.9% 79%  
288 1.0% 78%  
289 2% 77%  
290 1.2% 75%  
291 3% 74%  
292 21% 70%  
293 3% 49% Median
294 3% 47%  
295 2% 43%  
296 0.6% 42%  
297 7% 41% Last Result
298 2% 34%  
299 4% 33%  
300 6% 29%  
301 0.6% 23%  
302 0.4% 22%  
303 0.1% 22%  
304 0.5% 22%  
305 0.9% 21%  
306 0.4% 20%  
307 6% 20%  
308 2% 14%  
309 0.3% 12%  
310 1.3% 12%  
311 4% 11%  
312 0.6% 7%  
313 0.3% 6%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 0.6% 6%  
316 1.3% 5%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.3% 3%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.1% 1.4% Majority
327 0% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 1.2%  
330 0% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.6%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.3%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0.3% 98.9%  
233 0.4% 98.6%  
234 0.4% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 1.3% 98%  
237 2% 96%  
238 0.9% 95%  
239 0.5% 94%  
240 1.0% 93%  
241 0.8% 92%  
242 5% 91%  
243 2% 87%  
244 4% 84%  
245 12% 80%  
246 5% 68%  
247 7% 63%  
248 3% 56%  
249 2% 53% Median
250 1.2% 51%  
251 2% 49%  
252 9% 47%  
253 0.3% 38%  
254 2% 37%  
255 2% 36%  
256 5% 34%  
257 1.0% 29%  
258 5% 28%  
259 0.4% 22%  
260 0.8% 22%  
261 0.3% 21%  
262 0.2% 21%  
263 3% 21%  
264 0.9% 18%  
265 6% 17%  
266 0.7% 11%  
267 1.3% 10%  
268 0.5% 9%  
269 1.1% 8%  
270 0.6% 7%  
271 0.8% 7%  
272 0.2% 6%  
273 1.2% 6%  
274 0.1% 5%  
275 1.4% 4%  
276 0.1% 3%  
277 0.3% 3%  
278 0.1% 3% Last Result
279 0.2% 3%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0% 2%  
284 0% 2%  
285 0.1% 2%  
286 0.3% 2%  
287 0.1% 1.2%  
288 0% 1.1%  
289 0.3% 1.1%  
290 0.1% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.2% 0.4%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.7%  
225 0.2% 99.6%  
226 0.4% 99.4%  
227 0% 99.1%  
228 0% 99.1%  
229 0% 99.1%  
230 0.2% 99.1%  
231 1.3% 98.8%  
232 0.7% 98%  
233 0.4% 97%  
234 0.7% 96%  
235 0.2% 96%  
236 2% 96%  
237 0% 93%  
238 2% 93%  
239 0.2% 92%  
240 0.3% 91%  
241 0.1% 91%  
242 13% 91%  
243 3% 78%  
244 9% 75%  
245 16% 67%  
246 1.2% 51% Median
247 0.5% 49%  
248 0.3% 49%  
249 10% 49%  
250 3% 39%  
251 0.2% 35%  
252 1.3% 35%  
253 6% 34%  
254 5% 28%  
255 1.1% 23%  
256 0.4% 22%  
257 0.2% 21%  
258 0.1% 21%  
259 0% 21%  
260 6% 21%  
261 5% 14%  
262 0.4% 10%  
263 0% 9%  
264 1.4% 9%  
265 1.3% 8%  
266 0.4% 6% Last Result
267 0.8% 6%  
268 0.9% 5%  
269 0.4% 4%  
270 1.0% 4%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 0.1% 3%  
273 0.1% 3%  
274 0.1% 3%  
275 0% 2%  
276 0.8% 2%  
277 0.1% 2%  
278 0.2% 2%  
279 0.1% 1.3%  
280 0.1% 1.2%  
281 0% 1.2%  
282 0.1% 1.2%  
283 0% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 1.1%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.7%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0% 0.4%  
291 0.2% 0.3%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.6%  
222 0.2% 99.6%  
223 0.1% 99.4%  
224 0% 99.3%  
225 0.3% 99.3%  
226 0.2% 99.0%  
227 0.4% 98.8%  
228 0.3% 98%  
229 0.7% 98%  
230 0.2% 97%  
231 2% 97%  
232 2% 96%  
233 0.9% 94%  
234 0.4% 93%  
235 1.0% 93%  
236 0.9% 92%  
237 5% 91%  
238 2% 86%  
239 9% 84%  
240 9% 75%  
241 5% 66%  
242 4% 61%  
243 4% 56%  
244 2% 53% Median
245 2% 51%  
246 2% 49%  
247 4% 47%  
248 6% 43%  
249 2% 37%  
250 2% 35%  
251 5% 33%  
252 0.9% 29%  
253 5% 28%  
254 0.4% 23%  
255 0.9% 22%  
256 0.3% 21%  
257 0.2% 21%  
258 4% 21%  
259 0.2% 17%  
260 6% 17%  
261 0.8% 11%  
262 1.4% 10%  
263 0.7% 9%  
264 0.6% 8%  
265 0.4% 7%  
266 1.0% 7%  
267 0.5% 6%  
268 0.9% 5%  
269 0.1% 5%  
270 1.4% 4%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 0.2% 3%  
273 0.1% 3%  
274 0.1% 3% Last Result
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 0.2% 2%  
278 0% 2%  
279 0% 2%  
280 0.1% 2%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.1% 1.2%  
283 0.1% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 1.0%  
285 0% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.7%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.8%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.6%  
221 0.2% 99.4%  
222 0.2% 99.2%  
223 0% 99.0%  
224 0.1% 99.0%  
225 0.2% 98.9%  
226 1.2% 98.7%  
227 0.6% 97%  
228 0.8% 97%  
229 0.7% 96%  
230 0.5% 95%  
231 2% 95%  
232 0.1% 93%  
233 1.5% 93%  
234 0.5% 91%  
235 0.7% 91%  
236 0.7% 90%  
237 16% 90%  
238 1.1% 74%  
239 8% 73%  
240 13% 64%  
241 1.5% 51% Median
242 0.6% 49%  
243 0.4% 49%  
244 4% 48%  
245 9% 44%  
246 0.6% 35%  
247 1.2% 35%  
248 5% 33%  
249 5% 28%  
250 1.1% 23%  
251 0.4% 22%  
252 0.3% 21%  
253 0.2% 21%  
254 0.5% 21%  
255 6% 20%  
256 4% 14%  
257 0.6% 10%  
258 0.1% 9%  
259 2% 9%  
260 0.6% 7%  
261 0.9% 7%  
262 0.2% 6% Last Result
263 1.2% 6%  
264 0.4% 4%  
265 1.0% 4%  
266 0.2% 3%  
267 0.2% 3%  
268 0.2% 3%  
269 0.1% 2%  
270 0% 2%  
271 0.6% 2%  
272 0.1% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.1% 1.3%  
275 0.1% 1.2%  
276 0% 1.2%  
277 0.1% 1.1%  
278 0% 1.1%  
279 0.4% 1.1%  
280 0.1% 0.7%  
281 0% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations