Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 18–22 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
40.2% |
38.2–42.2% |
37.7–42.8% |
37.2–43.3% |
36.3–44.2% |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
40.2% |
38.2–42.2% |
37.7–42.8% |
37.2–43.3% |
36.3–44.2% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
7.0% |
6.1–8.1% |
5.8–8.5% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.3% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.6% |
3.5–7.1% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.8–6.6% |
3.5–7.1% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.4% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
236 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
242 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
249 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
253 |
0% |
96% |
|
254 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
256 |
3% |
95% |
|
257 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
262 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
263 |
2% |
88% |
|
264 |
2% |
86% |
|
265 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
267 |
3% |
84% |
|
268 |
3% |
80% |
|
269 |
5% |
77% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
72% |
|
271 |
6% |
72% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
66% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
66% |
|
274 |
6% |
64% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
276 |
1.1% |
59% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
280 |
2% |
57% |
|
281 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
285 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
286 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
287 |
1.5% |
45% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
43% |
|
289 |
0.6% |
43% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
291 |
0.4% |
42% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
42% |
|
293 |
8% |
42% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
34% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
33% |
|
297 |
9% |
33% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
24% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
300 |
0.4% |
24% |
|
301 |
0% |
23% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
307 |
6% |
21% |
|
308 |
3% |
15% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
13% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
317 |
4% |
10% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
320 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.8% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
237 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
238 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
240 |
2% |
97% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
242 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
243 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
245 |
0% |
94% |
|
246 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
247 |
4% |
93% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
249 |
2% |
90% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
251 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
253 |
0% |
87% |
|
254 |
0% |
87% |
|
255 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
256 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
258 |
6% |
85% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
78% |
|
262 |
1.0% |
78% |
Last Result |
263 |
3% |
77% |
|
264 |
6% |
73% |
|
265 |
0% |
68% |
|
266 |
0% |
68% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
68% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
67% |
|
269 |
8% |
67% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
272 |
2% |
58% |
|
273 |
1.5% |
56% |
|
274 |
0.7% |
55% |
|
275 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
276 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
48% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
48% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
283 |
2% |
46% |
|
284 |
1.1% |
44% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
43% |
|
286 |
5% |
43% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
38% |
|
288 |
6% |
37% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
31% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
31% |
|
291 |
2% |
31% |
|
292 |
2% |
29% |
|
293 |
2% |
27% |
|
294 |
4% |
25% |
|
295 |
2% |
22% |
|
296 |
4% |
19% |
|
297 |
3% |
15% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
299 |
1.5% |
12% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
301 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
304 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
305 |
3% |
7% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
311 |
2% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
2 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
3 |
3% |
97% |
|
4 |
10% |
94% |
|
5 |
9% |
84% |
|
6 |
2% |
75% |
|
7 |
2% |
74% |
|
8 |
3% |
72% |
|
9 |
6% |
69% |
|
10 |
17% |
63% |
Median |
11 |
15% |
46% |
|
12 |
12% |
31% |
Last Result |
13 |
6% |
20% |
|
14 |
2% |
13% |
|
15 |
5% |
11% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
17 |
2% |
5% |
|
18 |
2% |
3% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
22 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
51 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
53 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
54 |
7% |
95% |
|
55 |
10% |
89% |
|
56 |
3% |
79% |
|
57 |
18% |
76% |
|
58 |
57% |
58% |
Median |
59 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
19% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
65% |
81% |
Median |
3 |
16% |
16% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
35% |
100% |
|
1 |
22% |
65% |
Median |
2 |
13% |
43% |
|
3 |
9% |
30% |
|
4 |
17% |
21% |
Last Result |
5 |
4% |
4% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
344 |
79% |
318–374 |
315–379 |
308–385 |
303–394 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
343 |
78% |
316–372 |
312–377 |
307–384 |
301–392 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
345 |
78% |
314–370 |
310–374 |
304–381 |
293–385 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
343 |
78% |
314–369 |
306–372 |
302–380 |
292–382 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
334 |
67% |
306–358 |
300–366 |
295–370 |
286–373 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
333 |
66% |
305–357 |
298–363 |
294–369 |
286–371 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
295 |
10% |
273–325 |
264–330 |
260–335 |
256–345 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
286 |
4% |
262–317 |
258–324 |
250–328 |
247–339 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
285 |
3% |
260–317 |
256–321 |
249–327 |
245–338 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
287 |
1.0% |
258–313 |
253–318 |
246–323 |
239–330 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
286 |
0.6% |
257–311 |
252–316 |
245–322 |
237–327 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
277 |
0% |
248–300 |
244–308 |
240–312 |
232–315 |
Labour Party |
262 |
275 |
0% |
247–300 |
242–305 |
238–311 |
231–313 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
302 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
303 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
304 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
306 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
308 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
313 |
0% |
96% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
315 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
316 |
2% |
95% |
|
317 |
3% |
93% |
|
318 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
320 |
3% |
89% |
|
321 |
1.4% |
86% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
323 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
324 |
3% |
84% |
|
325 |
2% |
81% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
79% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
78% |
|
329 |
8% |
78% |
|
330 |
5% |
70% |
|
331 |
3% |
65% |
|
332 |
0% |
62% |
|
333 |
3% |
62% |
|
334 |
0.5% |
59% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
58% |
|
336 |
0.6% |
58% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
338 |
2% |
57% |
|
339 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
341 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
342 |
1.1% |
53% |
|
343 |
1.0% |
52% |
|
344 |
5% |
51% |
Median |
345 |
2% |
46% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
347 |
0.5% |
45% |
|
348 |
2% |
44% |
|
349 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
350 |
0.4% |
42% |
|
351 |
8% |
41% |
|
352 |
3% |
34% |
|
353 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
354 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
355 |
5% |
30% |
|
356 |
0.2% |
25% |
Last Result |
357 |
0.2% |
25% |
|
358 |
0.8% |
24% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
360 |
0.3% |
23% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
362 |
1.0% |
23% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
364 |
0% |
22% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
366 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
367 |
7% |
20% |
|
368 |
0.5% |
13% |
|
369 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
370 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
372 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
373 |
0.2% |
10% |
|
374 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
375 |
3% |
9% |
|
376 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
377 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
379 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
380 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
382 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
383 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
384 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
385 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
386 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
387 |
0% |
2% |
|
388 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
394 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
400 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
295 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
296 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
298 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
304 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
306 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
307 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
309 |
0% |
96% |
|
310 |
0% |
96% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
312 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
314 |
4% |
95% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
90% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
318 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
319 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
320 |
3% |
88% |
|
321 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
323 |
2% |
84% |
|
324 |
3% |
82% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
326 |
2% |
78% |
Majority |
327 |
6% |
77% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
70% |
|
329 |
11% |
70% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
59% |
|
331 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
332 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
333 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
334 |
0.9% |
58% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
337 |
0.3% |
56% |
|
338 |
2% |
56% |
|
339 |
1.0% |
54% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
341 |
0% |
53% |
|
342 |
2% |
53% |
|
343 |
8% |
52% |
Median |
344 |
0.1% |
44% |
|
345 |
0.7% |
43% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
43% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
42% |
|
348 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
349 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
350 |
8% |
41% |
|
351 |
4% |
33% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
29% |
Last Result |
353 |
0.2% |
29% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
29% |
|
355 |
5% |
29% |
|
356 |
0.3% |
24% |
|
357 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
360 |
0% |
23% |
|
361 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
364 |
0.5% |
22% |
|
365 |
7% |
21% |
|
366 |
2% |
14% |
|
367 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
368 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
369 |
0% |
11% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
371 |
0% |
11% |
|
372 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
373 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
374 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
375 |
3% |
9% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
377 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
378 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
379 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
380 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
382 |
0% |
3% |
|
383 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
384 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
385 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
386 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
389 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
392 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
394 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
297 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
300 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
302 |
0.4% |
98.8% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
307 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
310 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
312 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
93% |
Last Result |
314 |
3% |
93% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
317 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
318 |
0% |
89% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
320 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
321 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
322 |
2% |
87% |
|
323 |
6% |
85% |
|
324 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
78% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
78% |
|
328 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
329 |
0% |
77% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
77% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
76% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
76% |
|
333 |
8% |
76% |
|
334 |
1.1% |
68% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
67% |
|
336 |
0% |
66% |
|
337 |
8% |
66% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
339 |
0.4% |
58% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
341 |
0.4% |
57% |
|
342 |
1.1% |
57% |
|
343 |
0% |
56% |
|
344 |
6% |
56% |
Median |
345 |
2% |
50% |
|
346 |
1.2% |
48% |
|
347 |
0% |
47% |
|
348 |
0% |
47% |
|
349 |
1.1% |
46% |
|
350 |
2% |
45% |
|
351 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
43% |
|
353 |
0.4% |
43% |
|
354 |
1.1% |
43% |
|
355 |
5% |
41% |
|
356 |
0.7% |
36% |
|
357 |
1.4% |
36% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
34% |
|
359 |
6% |
34% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
28% |
|
361 |
5% |
28% |
|
362 |
0% |
23% |
|
363 |
7% |
23% |
|
364 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
365 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
366 |
2% |
15% |
|
367 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
368 |
2% |
13% |
|
369 |
1.3% |
11% |
|
370 |
0.8% |
10% |
|
371 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
372 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
373 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
374 |
3% |
8% |
|
375 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
376 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
378 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
380 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
381 |
2% |
3% |
|
382 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
384 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
390 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
391 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
392 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
394 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
292 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
302 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
306 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
307 |
0% |
95% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
309 |
0.7% |
95% |
Last Result |
310 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
314 |
3% |
92% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
316 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
317 |
0.5% |
88% |
|
318 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
320 |
2% |
87% |
|
321 |
7% |
85% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
323 |
0% |
78% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
78% |
Majority |
327 |
1.0% |
77% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
77% |
|
329 |
0.8% |
76% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
75% |
|
331 |
1.1% |
75% |
|
332 |
3% |
74% |
|
333 |
5% |
71% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
66% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
66% |
|
336 |
8% |
66% |
|
337 |
0% |
58% |
|
338 |
0.7% |
58% |
|
339 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
340 |
2% |
57% |
|
341 |
0.9% |
55% |
|
342 |
0.5% |
54% |
|
343 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
344 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
345 |
1.0% |
48% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
47% |
|
347 |
0.6% |
46% |
|
348 |
0% |
46% |
|
349 |
1.3% |
46% |
|
350 |
2% |
44% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
43% |
|
352 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
353 |
2% |
42% |
|
354 |
0.6% |
40% |
|
355 |
8% |
39% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
31% |
|
357 |
2% |
31% |
|
358 |
3% |
29% |
|
359 |
5% |
26% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
361 |
2% |
21% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
19% |
|
363 |
3% |
19% |
|
364 |
0% |
16% |
|
365 |
0.7% |
16% |
|
366 |
3% |
15% |
|
367 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
368 |
0.8% |
11% |
|
369 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
370 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
371 |
4% |
9% |
|
372 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
373 |
0% |
4% |
|
374 |
0% |
4% |
|
375 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
377 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
378 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
379 |
0% |
3% |
|
380 |
2% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
382 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
390 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
391 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
292 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
294 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
295 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
298 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
299 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
95% |
Last Result |
302 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
305 |
3% |
93% |
|
306 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
308 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
86% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
86% |
|
314 |
0% |
86% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
86% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
85% |
|
318 |
10% |
84% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
74% |
|
322 |
5% |
74% |
|
323 |
2% |
69% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
68% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
67% |
Majority |
327 |
8% |
67% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
329 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
330 |
1.2% |
58% |
|
331 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
332 |
0% |
57% |
|
333 |
2% |
57% |
|
334 |
5% |
55% |
Median |
335 |
2% |
50% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
341 |
2% |
47% |
|
342 |
2% |
45% |
|
343 |
5% |
43% |
|
344 |
2% |
38% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
36% |
|
346 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
347 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
348 |
5% |
34% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
350 |
2% |
29% |
|
351 |
4% |
27% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
353 |
2% |
23% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
355 |
3% |
20% |
|
356 |
0.4% |
17% |
|
357 |
7% |
17% |
|
358 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
360 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
362 |
0% |
8% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
364 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
365 |
0% |
7% |
|
366 |
4% |
7% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
370 |
2% |
3% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
373 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
374 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
379 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
380 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
277 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
284 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
286 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
291 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
292 |
0% |
98% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
294 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
295 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
96% |
Last Result |
298 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
299 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
304 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
305 |
3% |
93% |
|
306 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
309 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
86% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
86% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
313 |
0.9% |
86% |
|
314 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
316 |
6% |
84% |
|
317 |
4% |
78% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
320 |
1.0% |
74% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
73% |
|
322 |
6% |
73% |
|
323 |
0% |
67% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
67% |
|
325 |
0.7% |
67% |
|
326 |
8% |
66% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
328 |
0% |
58% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
58% |
|
330 |
3% |
58% |
|
331 |
2% |
55% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
333 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
334 |
0.2% |
48% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
336 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
337 |
0% |
47% |
|
338 |
0% |
47% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
340 |
2% |
46% |
|
341 |
2% |
44% |
|
342 |
1.4% |
42% |
|
343 |
5% |
41% |
|
344 |
3% |
36% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
32% |
|
346 |
0.9% |
32% |
|
347 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
348 |
3% |
31% |
|
349 |
2% |
28% |
|
350 |
1.0% |
25% |
|
351 |
3% |
24% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
353 |
3% |
20% |
|
354 |
4% |
18% |
|
355 |
3% |
14% |
|
356 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
357 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
358 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
359 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
361 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
362 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
363 |
3% |
7% |
|
364 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
365 |
0% |
4% |
|
366 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
367 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
368 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
369 |
2% |
3% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
371 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
376 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
379 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
381 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
251 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
256 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
260 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
262 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
264 |
4% |
97% |
|
265 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
267 |
0% |
92% |
|
268 |
0% |
92% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
270 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
271 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
272 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
273 |
6% |
90% |
|
274 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
275 |
3% |
83% |
|
276 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
79% |
|
278 |
2% |
79% |
|
279 |
3% |
77% |
|
280 |
1.5% |
74% |
|
281 |
2% |
72% |
|
282 |
5% |
70% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
66% |
|
284 |
1.1% |
65% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
64% |
|
286 |
7% |
64% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
57% |
|
288 |
2% |
57% |
|
289 |
2% |
55% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
294 |
0.8% |
53% |
|
295 |
7% |
52% |
Median |
296 |
0.6% |
45% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
298 |
2% |
45% |
|
299 |
0% |
43% |
|
300 |
1.3% |
43% |
|
301 |
0.6% |
42% |
|
302 |
0.3% |
41% |
|
303 |
8% |
41% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
33% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
33% |
|
306 |
0% |
33% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
32% |
|
308 |
6% |
32% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
26% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
26% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
26% |
|
312 |
11% |
26% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
314 |
0.4% |
15% |
|
315 |
0% |
14% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
14% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
321 |
0.7% |
13% |
|
322 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
325 |
0.7% |
11% |
|
326 |
3% |
10% |
Majority |
327 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
328 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
6% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
331 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
333 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
334 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
335 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
338 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
345 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
350 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
355 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
238 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
250 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
253 |
0% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
255 |
0% |
96% |
|
256 |
0% |
96% |
|
257 |
0% |
96% |
|
258 |
2% |
96% |
|
259 |
3% |
94% |
|
260 |
0.6% |
91% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
262 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
263 |
2% |
90% |
|
264 |
3% |
88% |
|
265 |
0.7% |
85% |
|
266 |
0% |
84% |
|
267 |
3% |
84% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
81% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
81% |
|
270 |
2% |
81% |
|
271 |
3% |
79% |
|
272 |
5% |
76% |
|
273 |
2% |
71% |
|
274 |
5% |
69% |
|
275 |
3% |
64% |
|
276 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
277 |
2% |
60% |
|
278 |
0.8% |
58% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
280 |
2% |
57% |
|
281 |
1.2% |
56% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
55% |
|
283 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
285 |
1.4% |
54% |
|
286 |
5% |
52% |
Median |
287 |
0.8% |
47% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
46% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
290 |
3% |
46% |
|
291 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
292 |
0% |
42% |
|
293 |
0% |
42% |
|
294 |
8% |
42% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
34% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
34% |
|
297 |
5% |
34% |
|
298 |
3% |
29% |
|
299 |
0.4% |
26% |
|
300 |
0.8% |
25% |
|
301 |
0.9% |
25% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
24% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
24% |
|
304 |
1.2% |
23% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
308 |
0.9% |
22% |
|
309 |
6% |
21% |
|
310 |
2% |
15% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
13% |
|
312 |
0.9% |
13% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
12% |
|
314 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
315 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
11% |
|
317 |
3% |
11% |
|
318 |
0% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
320 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
321 |
0.4% |
6% |
Last Result |
322 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
325 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
4% |
Majority |
327 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
328 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
332 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
236 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
237 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
242 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
245 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
249 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
253 |
0% |
96% |
|
254 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
256 |
3% |
95% |
|
257 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
258 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
260 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
262 |
0.9% |
89% |
|
263 |
2% |
88% |
|
264 |
2% |
86% |
|
265 |
0.8% |
85% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
267 |
3% |
84% |
|
268 |
3% |
80% |
|
269 |
5% |
77% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
72% |
|
271 |
6% |
72% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
66% |
|
273 |
1.4% |
66% |
|
274 |
6% |
64% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
276 |
1.1% |
59% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
280 |
2% |
57% |
|
281 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
285 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
286 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
287 |
1.5% |
45% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
43% |
|
289 |
0.6% |
43% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
291 |
0.4% |
42% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
42% |
|
293 |
8% |
42% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
34% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
33% |
|
297 |
9% |
33% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
24% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
300 |
0.4% |
24% |
|
301 |
0% |
23% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
23% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
22% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
307 |
6% |
21% |
|
308 |
3% |
15% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
13% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
311 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
11% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
317 |
4% |
10% |
Last Result |
318 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
319 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
320 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
326 |
0.8% |
3% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
328 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
340 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
239 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
245 |
0.9% |
99.1% |
|
246 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
247 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
250 |
0% |
97% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
252 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
253 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
254 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
256 |
3% |
94% |
|
257 |
0.4% |
91% |
|
258 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
259 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
260 |
0% |
89% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
262 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
263 |
2% |
89% |
|
264 |
0.8% |
87% |
|
265 |
7% |
86% |
|
266 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
79% |
|
268 |
0% |
78% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
270 |
0.9% |
78% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
77% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
77% |
|
273 |
0% |
77% |
|
274 |
0.4% |
77% |
|
275 |
5% |
76% |
|
276 |
0.8% |
72% |
|
277 |
0.2% |
71% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
71% |
Last Result |
279 |
4% |
71% |
|
280 |
8% |
67% |
|
281 |
0.5% |
59% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
58% |
|
284 |
1.4% |
58% |
|
285 |
0% |
57% |
|
286 |
5% |
57% |
Median |
287 |
2% |
52% |
|
288 |
0.8% |
49% |
|
289 |
2% |
48% |
|
290 |
0% |
47% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
292 |
2% |
46% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
44% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
44% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
44% |
|
296 |
0.9% |
43% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
41% |
|
300 |
5% |
41% |
|
301 |
6% |
36% |
|
302 |
0.5% |
30% |
|
303 |
6% |
30% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
305 |
2% |
23% |
|
306 |
3% |
22% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
308 |
2% |
18% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
310 |
3% |
15% |
|
311 |
2% |
13% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
313 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
314 |
0% |
10% |
|
315 |
0.4% |
10% |
|
316 |
3% |
9% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
318 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
319 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
320 |
0% |
4% |
|
321 |
0% |
4% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
323 |
2% |
4% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
231 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
232 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
233 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
234 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
235 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
236 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
240 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
241 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
242 |
0.7% |
99.0% |
|
243 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
245 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
246 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
247 |
0% |
97% |
|
248 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
249 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
251 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
253 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
256 |
3% |
94% |
|
257 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
259 |
0.9% |
90% |
|
260 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
261 |
0.5% |
88% |
|
262 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
263 |
8% |
87% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
79% |
|
266 |
0% |
78% |
|
267 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
269 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
77% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
77% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
76% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
76% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
75% |
Last Result |
275 |
5% |
75% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
70% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
70% |
|
278 |
3% |
69% |
|
279 |
8% |
66% |
|
280 |
1.1% |
59% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
282 |
2% |
57% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
56% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
55% |
|
285 |
5% |
55% |
Median |
286 |
2% |
50% |
|
287 |
1.0% |
49% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
48% |
|
289 |
1.0% |
47% |
|
290 |
0% |
46% |
|
291 |
1.2% |
46% |
|
292 |
2% |
45% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
43% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
43% |
|
295 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
42% |
|
297 |
3% |
41% |
|
298 |
0.1% |
38% |
|
299 |
3% |
38% |
|
300 |
8% |
35% |
|
301 |
5% |
27% |
|
302 |
0.5% |
22% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
304 |
0% |
21% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
306 |
5% |
21% |
|
307 |
0.7% |
16% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
309 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
310 |
2% |
14% |
|
311 |
1.4% |
11% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
313 |
3% |
10% |
|
314 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
316 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
321 |
0% |
4% |
|
322 |
2% |
4% |
|
323 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
231 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
235 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
238 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
239 |
0% |
98% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
241 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
242 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
243 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
244 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
245 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
246 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
247 |
4% |
94% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
250 |
0% |
90% |
|
251 |
2% |
90% |
|
252 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
254 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
256 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
257 |
0% |
87% |
|
258 |
0% |
86% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
86% |
|
260 |
7% |
85% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
78% |
|
262 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
263 |
0% |
78% |
|
264 |
8% |
78% |
|
265 |
2% |
70% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
68% |
Last Result |
267 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
269 |
0.4% |
68% |
|
270 |
8% |
67% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
272 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
273 |
0% |
59% |
|
274 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
275 |
0.9% |
58% |
|
276 |
6% |
57% |
Median |
277 |
3% |
51% |
|
278 |
0.9% |
49% |
|
279 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
281 |
0% |
48% |
|
282 |
0.3% |
48% |
|
283 |
2% |
47% |
|
284 |
2% |
45% |
|
285 |
0.3% |
44% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
43% |
|
287 |
0% |
43% |
|
288 |
6% |
43% |
|
289 |
0.5% |
37% |
|
290 |
5% |
37% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
292 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
293 |
0.7% |
30% |
|
294 |
3% |
29% |
|
295 |
4% |
26% |
|
296 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
297 |
3% |
22% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
19% |
|
299 |
6% |
18% |
|
300 |
3% |
12% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
303 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
308 |
4% |
7% |
|
309 |
0% |
4% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
311 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
312 |
2% |
3% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0% |
100% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
229 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
236 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
237 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
238 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
239 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
240 |
2% |
97% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
242 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
243 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
245 |
0% |
94% |
|
246 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
247 |
4% |
93% |
|
248 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
249 |
2% |
90% |
|
250 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
251 |
0.8% |
88% |
|
252 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
253 |
0% |
87% |
|
254 |
0% |
87% |
|
255 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
256 |
0.8% |
86% |
|
257 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
258 |
6% |
85% |
|
259 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
261 |
0.4% |
78% |
|
262 |
1.0% |
78% |
Last Result |
263 |
3% |
77% |
|
264 |
6% |
73% |
|
265 |
0% |
68% |
|
266 |
0% |
68% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
68% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
67% |
|
269 |
8% |
67% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
272 |
2% |
58% |
|
273 |
1.5% |
56% |
|
274 |
0.7% |
55% |
|
275 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
276 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
48% |
|
278 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
279 |
0.3% |
48% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
47% |
|
283 |
2% |
46% |
|
284 |
1.1% |
44% |
|
285 |
0.4% |
43% |
|
286 |
5% |
43% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
38% |
|
288 |
6% |
37% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
31% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
31% |
|
291 |
2% |
31% |
|
292 |
2% |
29% |
|
293 |
2% |
27% |
|
294 |
4% |
25% |
|
295 |
2% |
22% |
|
296 |
4% |
19% |
|
297 |
3% |
15% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
12% |
|
299 |
1.5% |
12% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
301 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
302 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
304 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
305 |
3% |
7% |
|
306 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
311 |
2% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–22 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1015
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.93%