Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 25–29 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.6% 41.1–44.0% 40.7–44.4% 40.4–44.7% 39.7–45.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.6% 38.2–41.0% 37.8–41.4% 37.5–41.8% 36.8–42.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 322 298–339 291–342 287–346 277–352
Labour Party 262 259 239–286 236–294 233–299 226–312
Liberal Democrats 12 15 11–17 9–19 8–20 6–23
Scottish National Party 35 32 10–42 8–47 6–49 3–52
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5 4–6 4–8 3–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 98.8%  
283 0.3% 98.7%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.9% 96%  
291 0.4% 95%  
292 0.5% 95%  
293 0.4% 94%  
294 0.6% 94%  
295 0.7% 93%  
296 0.5% 93%  
297 0.5% 92%  
298 2% 92%  
299 0.8% 90%  
300 0.7% 89%  
301 0.7% 88%  
302 2% 88%  
303 0.6% 86%  
304 1.1% 85%  
305 0.7% 84%  
306 2% 84%  
307 2% 82%  
308 2% 80%  
309 2% 78%  
310 1.1% 76%  
311 2% 75%  
312 1.2% 73%  
313 2% 72%  
314 2% 70%  
315 2% 68%  
316 3% 66%  
317 2% 63% Last Result
318 1.4% 61%  
319 2% 60%  
320 0.6% 58%  
321 3% 57%  
322 4% 54% Median
323 1.0% 50%  
324 2% 48%  
325 2% 47%  
326 3% 45% Majority
327 2% 42%  
328 1.4% 39%  
329 4% 38%  
330 3% 34%  
331 3% 31%  
332 3% 28%  
333 3% 26%  
334 3% 23%  
335 2% 20%  
336 3% 18%  
337 1.5% 15%  
338 4% 14%  
339 1.5% 10%  
340 1.4% 9%  
341 1.4% 7%  
342 0.8% 6%  
343 0.7% 5%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 1.1% 4%  
346 0.3% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.1%  
351 0.3% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0.3% 99.3%  
229 0.3% 99.0%  
230 0.4% 98.7%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.5% 97%  
235 0.4% 97%  
236 1.4% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 3% 89%  
241 3% 86%  
242 1.2% 83%  
243 3% 82%  
244 1.5% 78%  
245 2% 77%  
246 1.1% 75%  
247 1.4% 74%  
248 3% 73%  
249 2% 70%  
250 2% 68%  
251 3% 66%  
252 2% 63%  
253 0.7% 61%  
254 2% 60%  
255 1.3% 58%  
256 4% 57%  
257 1.2% 53%  
258 1.5% 52%  
259 1.5% 50% Median
260 4% 49%  
261 2% 45%  
262 1.4% 42% Last Result
263 2% 41%  
264 3% 39%  
265 1.5% 36%  
266 2% 35%  
267 1.0% 33%  
268 2% 32%  
269 2% 30%  
270 0.8% 28%  
271 2% 28%  
272 2% 26%  
273 0.7% 25%  
274 3% 24%  
275 2% 21%  
276 0.7% 19%  
277 1.1% 18%  
278 0.5% 17%  
279 1.4% 16%  
280 1.0% 15%  
281 0.6% 14%  
282 0.5% 13%  
283 1.3% 13%  
284 0.5% 12%  
285 0.9% 11%  
286 2% 10%  
287 0.7% 8%  
288 0.6% 8%  
289 0.4% 7%  
290 0.7% 7%  
291 0.3% 6%  
292 0.1% 6%  
293 0.4% 5%  
294 0.7% 5%  
295 0.4% 4%  
296 0.2% 4%  
297 0.2% 4%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.3%  
306 0.1% 1.2%  
307 0.1% 1.1%  
308 0.2% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.5%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0.6% 99.7%  
7 0.4% 99.1%  
8 2% 98.7%  
9 2% 97%  
10 3% 95%  
11 4% 91%  
12 5% 88% Last Result
13 7% 82%  
14 8% 75%  
15 22% 67% Median
16 15% 46%  
17 21% 31%  
18 3% 10%  
19 3% 7%  
20 2% 4%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.6%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.4% 99.7%  
4 0.4% 99.3%  
5 1.3% 99.0%  
6 0.7% 98%  
7 1.1% 97%  
8 3% 96%  
9 2% 93%  
10 0.7% 91%  
11 0.4% 90%  
12 1.1% 90%  
13 2% 89%  
14 2% 86%  
15 0.4% 85%  
16 0.3% 84%  
17 1.2% 84%  
18 0.2% 83%  
19 3% 83%  
20 2% 80%  
21 4% 79%  
22 0.3% 75%  
23 4% 75%  
24 2% 71%  
25 1.1% 69%  
26 3% 68%  
27 4% 66%  
28 3% 61%  
29 4% 58%  
30 0.8% 54%  
31 0.6% 53%  
32 4% 53% Median
33 2% 49%  
34 1.5% 46%  
35 4% 45% Last Result
36 1.5% 41%  
37 1.1% 40%  
38 6% 39%  
39 9% 32%  
40 7% 23%  
41 4% 16%  
42 2% 12%  
43 1.2% 10%  
44 0.9% 9%  
45 0.6% 8%  
46 2% 7%  
47 0.8% 5%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 0.3% 1.4%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.1% 0.5%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.6% 99.8%  
4 9% 99.2% Last Result
5 82% 91% Median
6 3% 8%  
7 1.3% 5%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 358 93% 330–378 322–381 315–385 303–392
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 353 89% 325–372 317–376 310–380 298–387
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 338 75% 314–353 307–357 302–360 293–366
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 327 57% 303–344 296–348 292–351 282–358
Conservative Party 317 322 45% 298–339 291–342 287–346 277–352
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 309 16% 292–333 289–340 285–344 278–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 304 12% 287–328 283–335 280–339 273–349
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 293 4% 278–317 274–324 271–329 265–338
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 288 2% 273–312 269–319 266–324 260–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 278 1.3% 259–306 255–314 251–321 244–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 273 0.7% 253–301 250–309 246–316 239–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 264 0.1% 244–291 242–298 238–304 232–317
Labour Party 262 259 0% 239–286 236–294 233–299 226–312

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.1% 99.3%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.0%  
309 0.2% 98.9%  
310 0.1% 98.8%  
311 0.1% 98.6%  
312 0.2% 98.6%  
313 0.5% 98%  
314 0.3% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.4% 97%  
318 0.4% 97%  
319 0.4% 96%  
320 0.2% 96%  
321 0.4% 96%  
322 0.5% 95%  
323 0.3% 95%  
324 0.4% 94%  
325 0.4% 94%  
326 0.7% 93% Majority
327 0.8% 93%  
328 0.5% 92%  
329 0.6% 91%  
330 2% 91%  
331 0.5% 89%  
332 0.6% 89%  
333 1.5% 88%  
334 0.3% 87%  
335 0.9% 86%  
336 1.2% 85%  
337 2% 84%  
338 0.5% 83%  
339 0.6% 82%  
340 2% 81%  
341 2% 80%  
342 2% 78%  
343 1.1% 76%  
344 1.2% 75%  
345 2% 74%  
346 1.1% 72%  
347 2% 71%  
348 2% 69%  
349 1.2% 68%  
350 3% 67%  
351 1.3% 64%  
352 2% 62%  
353 2% 61%  
354 2% 59%  
355 1.2% 57%  
356 4% 56% Last Result
357 1.2% 52%  
358 2% 51%  
359 1.2% 49% Median
360 2% 47%  
361 3% 45%  
362 1.0% 43%  
363 2% 42%  
364 3% 40%  
365 2% 37%  
366 2% 35%  
367 3% 33%  
368 2% 30%  
369 0.9% 29%  
370 2% 28%  
371 2% 26%  
372 2% 24%  
373 3% 22%  
374 3% 19%  
375 2% 16%  
376 2% 13%  
377 0.9% 11%  
378 1.5% 10%  
379 3% 9%  
380 0.8% 6%  
381 0.9% 5%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.4% 4%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.3% 1.3%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0.1% 99.2%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0.2% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.8%  
306 0.1% 98.7%  
307 0.2% 98.6%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.5% 97%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.3% 97%  
314 0.3% 96%  
315 0.4% 96%  
316 0.5% 96%  
317 0.5% 95%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 0.4% 94%  
320 0.5% 94%  
321 0.7% 93%  
322 0.7% 93%  
323 0.2% 92%  
324 0.9% 92%  
325 2% 91%  
326 0.5% 89% Majority
327 0.5% 89%  
328 2% 88%  
329 0.4% 87%  
330 0.9% 86%  
331 1.3% 85%  
332 1.4% 84%  
333 0.6% 83%  
334 0.6% 82%  
335 2% 82%  
336 2% 80%  
337 2% 78%  
338 1.1% 76%  
339 1.2% 75%  
340 1.5% 74%  
341 1.4% 73%  
342 2% 71%  
343 2% 70%  
344 1.3% 68%  
345 3% 66%  
346 1.3% 64%  
347 2% 62%  
348 2% 61%  
349 2% 59%  
350 1.3% 57%  
351 4% 56%  
352 1.2% 52% Last Result
353 2% 51%  
354 1.0% 48% Median
355 2% 47%  
356 2% 45%  
357 1.0% 43%  
358 2% 42%  
359 3% 40%  
360 2% 37%  
361 2% 35%  
362 3% 33%  
363 2% 30%  
364 0.8% 29%  
365 2% 28%  
366 2% 26%  
367 3% 24%  
368 2% 21%  
369 3% 19%  
370 3% 15%  
371 2% 13%  
372 1.3% 11%  
373 2% 10%  
374 2% 8%  
375 0.7% 6%  
376 0.8% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.5% 3%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.5%  
383 0.3% 1.3%  
384 0.2% 1.0%  
385 0.2% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.6%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.3%  
296 0.1% 99.2%  
297 0.2% 99.0%  
298 0.1% 98.9%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.2% 98%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.4% 97%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 0.3% 96%  
307 0.4% 95%  
308 0.5% 95%  
309 0.3% 94%  
310 0.7% 94%  
311 0.7% 93%  
312 0.4% 93%  
313 2% 92%  
314 0.8% 90%  
315 0.7% 89%  
316 0.6% 89%  
317 0.9% 88%  
318 2% 87%  
319 1.0% 85%  
320 0.9% 84%  
321 0.8% 84%  
322 1.4% 83%  
323 3% 81%  
324 2% 78%  
325 2% 76%  
326 1.2% 75% Majority
327 1.0% 73%  
328 3% 72%  
329 2% 69% Last Result
330 1.3% 67%  
331 2% 66%  
332 2% 63%  
333 1.1% 61%  
334 3% 60%  
335 1.4% 57%  
336 3% 56%  
337 3% 53% Median
338 2% 50%  
339 2% 48%  
340 1.1% 46%  
341 3% 45%  
342 3% 42%  
343 1.4% 39%  
344 3% 37%  
345 3% 35%  
346 4% 32%  
347 3% 28%  
348 3% 25%  
349 3% 22%  
350 2% 19%  
351 4% 17%  
352 2% 13%  
353 2% 11%  
354 2% 9%  
355 1.4% 7%  
356 0.7% 6%  
357 0.9% 5%  
358 1.3% 4%  
359 0.3% 3%  
360 0.5% 3%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.4%  
364 0.4% 1.3%  
365 0.2% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.2% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.1%  
286 0.2% 99.0%  
287 0.1% 98.8%  
288 0.3% 98.7%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.8% 97%  
294 0.3% 97%  
295 1.0% 96%  
296 0.4% 95%  
297 0.4% 95%  
298 0.6% 94%  
299 0.6% 94%  
300 0.5% 93%  
301 0.6% 93%  
302 0.6% 92%  
303 2% 92%  
304 0.7% 90%  
305 1.0% 89%  
306 0.7% 88%  
307 2% 88%  
308 0.7% 86%  
309 1.1% 85%  
310 0.8% 84%  
311 2% 84%  
312 2% 82%  
313 2% 80%  
314 2% 78%  
315 1.3% 76%  
316 2% 75%  
317 1.0% 73%  
318 2% 72%  
319 2% 70%  
320 2% 68%  
321 3% 66% Last Result
322 2% 63%  
323 1.3% 61%  
324 2% 60%  
325 0.6% 58%  
326 4% 57% Majority
327 4% 54% Median
328 1.2% 50%  
329 2% 49%  
330 2% 47%  
331 3% 45%  
332 2% 42%  
333 1.4% 40%  
334 4% 38%  
335 3% 34%  
336 3% 31%  
337 3% 29%  
338 2% 26%  
339 4% 24%  
340 2% 20%  
341 3% 18%  
342 1.3% 15%  
343 4% 14%  
344 1.0% 10%  
345 1.5% 9%  
346 1.4% 8%  
347 1.0% 6%  
348 0.8% 5%  
349 0.5% 4%  
350 1.0% 4%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.2%  
356 0.2% 0.9%  
357 0.2% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.2% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 98.8%  
283 0.3% 98.7%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.9% 96%  
291 0.4% 95%  
292 0.5% 95%  
293 0.4% 94%  
294 0.6% 94%  
295 0.7% 93%  
296 0.5% 93%  
297 0.5% 92%  
298 2% 92%  
299 0.8% 90%  
300 0.7% 89%  
301 0.7% 88%  
302 2% 88%  
303 0.6% 86%  
304 1.1% 85%  
305 0.7% 84%  
306 2% 84%  
307 2% 82%  
308 2% 80%  
309 2% 78%  
310 1.1% 76%  
311 2% 75%  
312 1.2% 73%  
313 2% 72%  
314 2% 70%  
315 2% 68%  
316 3% 66%  
317 2% 63% Last Result
318 1.4% 61%  
319 2% 60%  
320 0.6% 58%  
321 3% 57%  
322 4% 54% Median
323 1.0% 50%  
324 2% 48%  
325 2% 47%  
326 3% 45% Majority
327 2% 42%  
328 1.4% 39%  
329 4% 38%  
330 3% 34%  
331 3% 31%  
332 3% 28%  
333 3% 26%  
334 3% 23%  
335 2% 20%  
336 3% 18%  
337 1.5% 15%  
338 4% 14%  
339 1.5% 10%  
340 1.4% 9%  
341 1.4% 7%  
342 0.8% 6%  
343 0.7% 5%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 1.1% 4%  
346 0.3% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.1%  
351 0.3% 0.9%  
352 0.2% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.5% 98.9%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 1.1% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.7% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 1.4% 94%  
291 1.4% 93%  
292 2% 91%  
293 4% 90%  
294 2% 86%  
295 2% 85%  
296 2% 82%  
297 3% 80%  
298 3% 77%  
299 3% 74%  
300 2% 71%  
301 3% 69%  
302 4% 66%  
303 1.4% 62%  
304 2% 61%  
305 3% 58%  
306 2% 55%  
307 2% 53%  
308 1.0% 51%  
309 4% 50%  
310 3% 46%  
311 0.5% 43% Median
312 2% 42%  
313 1.2% 40% Last Result
314 2% 39%  
315 3% 37%  
316 2% 34%  
317 2% 32%  
318 2% 30%  
319 1.1% 28%  
320 2% 27%  
321 0.9% 25%  
322 2% 24%  
323 2% 22%  
324 2% 20%  
325 2% 18%  
326 0.7% 16% Majority
327 1.1% 16%  
328 0.8% 15%  
329 2% 14%  
330 0.7% 12%  
331 0.7% 12%  
332 0.8% 11%  
333 2% 10%  
334 0.4% 8%  
335 0.6% 8%  
336 0.7% 7%  
337 0.5% 6%  
338 0.4% 6%  
339 0.5% 6%  
340 0.4% 5%  
341 0.9% 5%  
342 0.4% 4%  
343 0.7% 3%  
344 0.2% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.1% 1.3%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.2% 1.0%  
352 0.2% 0.8%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.2% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.1%  
277 0.5% 98.8%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 1.0% 97%  
282 0.5% 96%  
283 0.8% 96%  
284 1.0% 95%  
285 1.4% 94%  
286 1.5% 92%  
287 1.1% 91%  
288 4% 90%  
289 1.5% 86%  
290 3% 84%  
291 2% 82%  
292 4% 80%  
293 2% 76%  
294 3% 74%  
295 3% 71%  
296 3% 68%  
297 4% 66%  
298 1.4% 62%  
299 2% 60%  
300 3% 58%  
301 2% 55%  
302 2% 53%  
303 1.2% 51%  
304 4% 50%  
305 4% 46%  
306 0.5% 43% Median
307 2% 42%  
308 1.2% 40%  
309 2% 39% Last Result
310 3% 37%  
311 2% 34%  
312 2% 32%  
313 2% 30%  
314 0.9% 28%  
315 2% 27%  
316 1.1% 25%  
317 2% 24%  
318 2% 22%  
319 2% 20%  
320 2% 18%  
321 0.7% 16%  
322 1.1% 16%  
323 0.8% 15%  
324 1.4% 14%  
325 0.7% 12%  
326 1.0% 12% Majority
327 0.7% 11%  
328 2% 10%  
329 0.5% 8%  
330 0.6% 8%  
331 0.5% 7%  
332 0.5% 7%  
333 0.6% 6%  
334 0.4% 6%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.9% 5%  
337 0.3% 4%  
338 0.8% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.2%  
346 0.1% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.4% 99.1%  
268 0.2% 98.7%  
269 0.5% 98.6%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 1.3% 97%  
274 0.9% 96%  
275 0.7% 95%  
276 1.4% 94%  
277 2% 93%  
278 2% 91%  
279 2% 89%  
280 4% 87%  
281 2% 83%  
282 3% 80%  
283 3% 78%  
284 3% 75%  
285 4% 72%  
286 3% 68%  
287 3% 65%  
288 1.4% 62%  
289 3% 61%  
290 3% 58%  
291 1.2% 55%  
292 2% 54%  
293 2% 52%  
294 3% 50%  
295 3% 47%  
296 1.4% 44% Median
297 3% 42%  
298 1.0% 40%  
299 2% 39%  
300 2% 37%  
301 1.4% 34% Last Result
302 2% 33%  
303 3% 31%  
304 1.0% 28%  
305 1.5% 27%  
306 1.5% 25%  
307 2% 24%  
308 3% 22%  
309 1.4% 19%  
310 0.8% 17%  
311 0.9% 16%  
312 1.0% 16%  
313 2% 14%  
314 1.0% 13%  
315 0.6% 12%  
316 0.8% 11%  
317 0.8% 11%  
318 2% 10%  
319 0.5% 8%  
320 0.6% 7%  
321 0.7% 6%  
322 0.2% 6%  
323 0.5% 6%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 0.3% 5%  
326 0.9% 4% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.5% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.5%  
333 0.1% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.2% 99.5%  
261 0.2% 99.3%  
262 0.4% 99.1%  
263 0.2% 98.7%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.3% 98%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.4% 97%  
268 1.5% 97%  
269 0.9% 95%  
270 0.9% 94%  
271 1.0% 94%  
272 2% 92%  
273 2% 91%  
274 2% 89%  
275 5% 87%  
276 3% 82%  
277 3% 80%  
278 2% 77%  
279 4% 75%  
280 3% 71%  
281 3% 68%  
282 2% 65%  
283 2% 63%  
284 3% 61%  
285 3% 58%  
286 1.3% 55%  
287 2% 54%  
288 2% 52%  
289 3% 50%  
290 3% 46%  
291 2% 44% Median
292 2% 42%  
293 1.0% 40%  
294 2% 39%  
295 3% 37%  
296 1.2% 34%  
297 2% 33% Last Result
298 3% 31%  
299 1.2% 28%  
300 1.5% 27%  
301 1.3% 25%  
302 2% 24%  
303 3% 22%  
304 2% 19%  
305 0.5% 17%  
306 0.8% 16%  
307 0.9% 16%  
308 2% 15%  
309 1.0% 13%  
310 0.5% 12%  
311 1.0% 11%  
312 0.8% 10%  
313 2% 10%  
314 0.5% 8%  
315 0.7% 7%  
316 0.7% 6%  
317 0.3% 6%  
318 0.5% 6%  
319 0.5% 5%  
320 0.3% 5%  
321 0.9% 4%  
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.5% 3%  
324 0.2% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.5% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.1% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.4%  
247 0.2% 99.2%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.2% 98.7%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.6% 98%  
252 0.6% 97%  
253 0.5% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 0.8% 96%  
256 0.8% 95%  
257 2% 94%  
258 2% 92%  
259 1.3% 90%  
260 2% 89%  
261 3% 87%  
262 3% 84%  
263 3% 81%  
264 3% 79%  
265 2% 76%  
266 2% 74%  
267 0.9% 72%  
268 2% 71%  
269 3% 70%  
270 2% 67%  
271 2% 65%  
272 3% 63%  
273 2% 60%  
274 1.1% 58%  
275 2% 57%  
276 3% 55%  
277 0.9% 53%  
278 3% 52% Last Result
279 1.1% 49% Median
280 4% 48%  
281 1.3% 44%  
282 2% 43%  
283 2% 41%  
284 2% 39%  
285 1.4% 38%  
286 3% 36%  
287 1.2% 33%  
288 2% 32%  
289 2% 30%  
290 1.2% 29%  
291 1.5% 27%  
292 1.2% 26%  
293 1.1% 25%  
294 1.5% 24%  
295 2% 22%  
296 2% 20%  
297 0.6% 18%  
298 0.7% 18%  
299 1.5% 17%  
300 1.2% 16%  
301 0.9% 15%  
302 0.5% 14%  
303 1.4% 13%  
304 0.6% 12%  
305 0.5% 11%  
306 2% 11%  
307 0.9% 9%  
308 0.3% 8%  
309 0.7% 8%  
310 0.7% 7%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 0.4% 6%  
313 0.3% 6%  
314 0.5% 5%  
315 0.5% 5%  
316 0.4% 4%  
317 0.3% 4%  
318 0.3% 4%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.4%  
326 0.1% 1.3% Majority
327 0.1% 1.2%  
328 0.1% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.1% 99.5%  
240 0.1% 99.4%  
241 0.2% 99.3%  
242 0.2% 99.2%  
243 0.3% 98.9%  
244 0.3% 98.6%  
245 0.5% 98%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.6% 97%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 0.6% 96%  
250 0.8% 96%  
251 0.9% 95%  
252 3% 94%  
253 1.4% 91%  
254 0.9% 90%  
255 2% 89%  
256 3% 87%  
257 3% 84%  
258 3% 81%  
259 2% 78%  
260 2% 76%  
261 2% 74%  
262 1.0% 72%  
263 2% 71%  
264 3% 69%  
265 2% 67%  
266 2% 65%  
267 3% 63%  
268 2% 60%  
269 1.2% 58%  
270 2% 57%  
271 2% 55%  
272 1.2% 53%  
273 2% 51%  
274 1.0% 49% Last Result, Median
275 4% 48%  
276 1.1% 44%  
277 3% 43%  
278 1.4% 41%  
279 1.5% 39%  
280 1.5% 38%  
281 3% 36%  
282 1.1% 33%  
283 2% 32%  
284 2% 30%  
285 1.0% 29%  
286 2% 28%  
287 1.3% 26%  
288 1.1% 25%  
289 1.4% 24%  
290 2% 22%  
291 2% 20%  
292 0.6% 18%  
293 0.5% 18%  
294 2% 17%  
295 1.2% 16%  
296 0.9% 14%  
297 0.5% 14%  
298 1.4% 13%  
299 0.6% 12%  
300 0.6% 11%  
301 2% 11%  
302 0.5% 9%  
303 0.6% 8%  
304 0.7% 8%  
305 0.7% 7%  
306 0.4% 6%  
307 0.4% 6%  
308 0.3% 6%  
309 0.5% 5%  
310 0.4% 5%  
311 0.2% 4%  
312 0.4% 4%  
313 0.4% 4%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.1% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.1% 1.4%  
321 0.1% 1.4%  
322 0.1% 1.2%  
323 0.1% 1.1%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.2% 99.7%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0.2% 99.3%  
234 0.3% 99.1%  
235 0.3% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0.5% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 0.3% 97%  
240 0.4% 97%  
241 0.9% 96%  
242 2% 96%  
243 3% 94%  
244 2% 91%  
245 3% 89%  
246 3% 86%  
247 1.3% 83%  
248 3% 82%  
249 2% 79%  
250 1.5% 77%  
251 1.2% 75%  
252 1.3% 74%  
253 3% 73%  
254 2% 70%  
255 2% 68%  
256 3% 66%  
257 2% 63%  
258 0.6% 61%  
259 2% 60%  
260 1.2% 58%  
261 4% 57%  
262 1.5% 53%  
263 1.1% 52%  
264 2% 51% Median
265 4% 49%  
266 2% 45% Last Result
267 1.4% 42%  
268 2% 41%  
269 3% 40%  
270 2% 37%  
271 2% 35%  
272 1.0% 33%  
273 2% 32%  
274 2% 30%  
275 0.8% 29%  
276 2% 28%  
277 1.5% 26%  
278 0.6% 25%  
279 3% 24%  
280 2% 21%  
281 0.8% 19%  
282 1.0% 18%  
283 0.5% 17%  
284 1.4% 16%  
285 1.0% 15%  
286 0.6% 14%  
287 0.6% 14%  
288 1.2% 13%  
289 0.7% 12%  
290 0.9% 11%  
291 2% 10%  
292 0.8% 8%  
293 0.5% 8%  
294 0.5% 7%  
295 0.7% 7%  
296 0.2% 6%  
297 0.2% 6%  
298 0.5% 5%  
299 0.5% 5%  
300 0.5% 4%  
301 0.2% 4%  
302 0.1% 4%  
303 0.6% 4%  
304 0.7% 3%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.5%  
310 0.1% 1.3%  
311 0.1% 1.2%  
312 0.2% 1.1%  
313 0.1% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.8%  
315 0.1% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.2% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0.3% 99.3%  
229 0.3% 99.0%  
230 0.4% 98.7%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.5% 98%  
233 0.5% 98%  
234 0.5% 97%  
235 0.4% 97%  
236 1.4% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 3% 89%  
241 3% 86%  
242 1.2% 83%  
243 3% 82%  
244 1.5% 78%  
245 2% 77%  
246 1.1% 75%  
247 1.4% 74%  
248 3% 73%  
249 2% 70%  
250 2% 68%  
251 3% 66%  
252 2% 63%  
253 0.7% 61%  
254 2% 60%  
255 1.3% 58%  
256 4% 57%  
257 1.2% 53%  
258 1.5% 52%  
259 1.5% 50% Median
260 4% 49%  
261 2% 45%  
262 1.4% 42% Last Result
263 2% 41%  
264 3% 39%  
265 1.5% 36%  
266 2% 35%  
267 1.0% 33%  
268 2% 32%  
269 2% 30%  
270 0.8% 28%  
271 2% 28%  
272 2% 26%  
273 0.7% 25%  
274 3% 24%  
275 2% 21%  
276 0.7% 19%  
277 1.1% 18%  
278 0.5% 17%  
279 1.4% 16%  
280 1.0% 15%  
281 0.6% 14%  
282 0.5% 13%  
283 1.3% 13%  
284 0.5% 12%  
285 0.9% 11%  
286 2% 10%  
287 0.7% 8%  
288 0.6% 8%  
289 0.4% 7%  
290 0.7% 7%  
291 0.3% 6%  
292 0.1% 6%  
293 0.4% 5%  
294 0.7% 5%  
295 0.4% 4%  
296 0.2% 4%  
297 0.2% 4%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.3%  
306 0.1% 1.2%  
307 0.1% 1.1%  
308 0.2% 0.9%  
309 0.1% 0.8%  
310 0% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.5%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations