Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 28–29 May 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.6% 40.0–43.1% 39.6–43.6% 39.2–43.9% 38.5–44.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.6% 37.1–40.2% 36.7–40.6% 36.3–41.0% 35.6–41.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 8.1–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.3–10.9%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 312 284–326 276–329 272–335 263–339
Labour Party 262 248 235–271 230–278 227–285 222–291
Liberal Democrats 12 18 14–23 12–24 12–26 10–27
Scottish National Party 35 51 45–55 44–56 41–57 39–57
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 0–7

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.6%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.4% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98.9%  
269 0.1% 98.6%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.1% 98%  
272 1.0% 98%  
273 0.1% 97%  
274 0.9% 97%  
275 0.6% 96%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 0% 95%  
278 0.2% 95%  
279 0.2% 94%  
280 0% 94%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.1% 94%  
283 0.1% 94%  
284 4% 93%  
285 0.3% 90%  
286 1.0% 89%  
287 0.9% 88%  
288 0.4% 87%  
289 0.4% 87%  
290 1.1% 86%  
291 0.3% 85%  
292 0.1% 85%  
293 2% 85%  
294 0.3% 83%  
295 8% 82%  
296 2% 74%  
297 0.4% 72%  
298 0.4% 72%  
299 0.9% 72%  
300 1.4% 71%  
301 1.3% 69%  
302 8% 68%  
303 2% 60%  
304 4% 58%  
305 0.2% 55%  
306 0.2% 54%  
307 0.3% 54%  
308 0% 54%  
309 2% 54%  
310 1.4% 52%  
311 0.6% 51%  
312 0.3% 50% Median
313 1.1% 50%  
314 0.9% 49%  
315 2% 48%  
316 3% 45%  
317 9% 42% Last Result
318 2% 33%  
319 10% 31%  
320 3% 21%  
321 0.7% 19%  
322 2% 18%  
323 0.4% 16%  
324 0.4% 15%  
325 5% 15%  
326 2% 10% Majority
327 0.4% 8%  
328 1.5% 8%  
329 2% 6%  
330 0.1% 5%  
331 0.7% 5%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.5%  
338 0% 1.4%  
339 0.9% 1.3%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0.1% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0.4% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.3%  
224 0.4% 99.2%  
225 0.3% 98.7%  
226 0.8% 98%  
227 0.9% 98%  
228 0.8% 97%  
229 0.4% 96%  
230 2% 95%  
231 0.3% 94%  
232 0.5% 93%  
233 0.4% 93%  
234 0.1% 92%  
235 2% 92%  
236 2% 90%  
237 6% 88%  
238 10% 82%  
239 4% 71%  
240 3% 67%  
241 0.7% 64%  
242 0.8% 64%  
243 10% 63%  
244 0.2% 53%  
245 0.1% 53%  
246 0.9% 53%  
247 2% 52%  
248 1.0% 50% Median
249 0.7% 49%  
250 6% 48%  
251 0.1% 43%  
252 0.1% 42%  
253 1.3% 42%  
254 0.8% 41%  
255 8% 40%  
256 1.0% 32%  
257 0.1% 31%  
258 2% 31%  
259 0.3% 29%  
260 0.1% 29%  
261 0.5% 28%  
262 1.3% 28% Last Result
263 3% 27%  
264 10% 24%  
265 0.8% 14%  
266 0.4% 14%  
267 2% 13%  
268 0% 11%  
269 0.1% 11%  
270 0.3% 11%  
271 1.1% 11%  
272 0.3% 10%  
273 0.2% 9%  
274 0.4% 9%  
275 3% 9%  
276 0.1% 6%  
277 0.2% 6%  
278 1.0% 5%  
279 0.4% 4%  
280 0.3% 4%  
281 0.4% 4%  
282 0% 3%  
283 0.1% 3%  
284 0.4% 3%  
285 0.4% 3%  
286 0.1% 2%  
287 0.7% 2%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.1%  
290 0.2% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.2% 99.8%  
9 0.1% 99.7%  
10 0.2% 99.6%  
11 1.0% 99.4%  
12 4% 98% Last Result
13 4% 95%  
14 13% 91%  
15 11% 77%  
16 11% 66%  
17 3% 55%  
18 14% 52% Median
19 5% 38%  
20 12% 33%  
21 5% 20%  
22 1.2% 15%  
23 7% 14%  
24 3% 8%  
25 2% 4%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.7%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 0.6% 99.0%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 1.4% 97%  
43 0.1% 96%  
44 2% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 0.8% 90%  
47 0.6% 89%  
48 4% 88%  
49 16% 84%  
50 2% 69%  
51 19% 67% Median
52 16% 48%  
53 4% 31%  
54 14% 27%  
55 7% 13%  
56 2% 7%  
57 4% 5%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.4%  
2 7% 99.3%  
3 14% 92%  
4 34% 78% Last Result, Median
5 43% 44%  
6 0.3% 0.9%  
7 0.2% 0.6%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 365 98% 341–379 334–385 327–389 319–392
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 361 96% 337–375 330–381 324–384 315–387
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 319 45% 305–346 302–355 296–359 292–368
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 316 32% 301–342 298–351 292–355 287–364
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 330 56% 304–342 296–346 291–352 282–357
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 301 11% 289–327 285–334 279–340 274–349
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 315 17% 289–330 280–333 276–339 267–344
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 297 6% 284–322 280–330 275–338 269–344
Conservative Party 317 312 10% 284–326 276–329 272–335 263–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 270 0.1% 256–294 250–300 247–307 244–316
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 266 0% 252–290 246–297 242–304 239–312
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 251 0% 240–276 234–282 231–289 226–296
Labour Party 262 248 0% 235–271 230–278 227–285 222–291

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.7%  
317 0% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0% 99.5%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.3% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.1%  
323 0% 99.0%  
324 0.6% 99.0%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0.8% 98%  
328 0% 97%  
329 1.2% 97%  
330 0.4% 96%  
331 0.3% 96%  
332 0.2% 95%  
333 0.1% 95%  
334 0.2% 95%  
335 0.6% 95%  
336 0.2% 94%  
337 3% 94%  
338 0.4% 91%  
339 0.3% 91%  
340 0.1% 90%  
341 1.0% 90%  
342 2% 89%  
343 0.1% 88%  
344 0.4% 88%  
345 1.3% 87%  
346 1.4% 86%  
347 0.3% 85%  
348 2% 84%  
349 1.4% 82%  
350 0.2% 81%  
351 0.5% 81%  
352 2% 80%  
353 9% 78%  
354 0.7% 70%  
355 0.2% 69%  
356 0.1% 69% Last Result
357 1.1% 69%  
358 11% 68%  
359 0.5% 57%  
360 0.5% 56%  
361 0.8% 56%  
362 0.2% 55%  
363 2% 55%  
364 0.3% 53%  
365 3% 53%  
366 2% 50%  
367 1.0% 48% Median
368 2% 47%  
369 0.2% 46%  
370 1.0% 45%  
371 1.4% 44%  
372 3% 43%  
373 15% 40%  
374 2% 25%  
375 0.3% 22%  
376 1.4% 22%  
377 2% 21%  
378 8% 19%  
379 3% 11%  
380 0.4% 8%  
381 0.6% 8%  
382 0.1% 7%  
383 0.5% 7%  
384 0.1% 6%  
385 2% 6%  
386 1.5% 5%  
387 0.3% 3%  
388 0.3% 3%  
389 0.8% 3%  
390 0% 2%  
391 1.2% 2%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.2%  
318 0.1% 99.1%  
319 0.4% 99.0%  
320 0% 98.6%  
321 0.2% 98.6%  
322 0.3% 98%  
323 0.1% 98%  
324 0.8% 98%  
325 0.9% 97%  
326 0.6% 96% Majority
327 0.1% 96%  
328 0.2% 95%  
329 0.1% 95%  
330 0.3% 95%  
331 0.6% 95%  
332 0.2% 94%  
333 3% 94%  
334 0.2% 91%  
335 0.4% 91%  
336 0.3% 90%  
337 1.2% 90%  
338 0.8% 89%  
339 0.7% 88%  
340 0.4% 87%  
341 1.2% 87%  
342 0.8% 86%  
343 0.7% 85%  
344 1.1% 84%  
345 2% 83%  
346 0.3% 81%  
347 0.1% 81%  
348 2% 80%  
349 8% 78%  
350 0.8% 70%  
351 0.1% 69%  
352 0.7% 69% Last Result
353 8% 68%  
354 1.0% 61%  
355 4% 60%  
356 0.9% 56%  
357 0.1% 55%  
358 0.5% 55%  
359 0.7% 54%  
360 3% 54%  
361 1.1% 51%  
362 0.5% 50%  
363 2% 49% Median
364 2% 48%  
365 1.2% 46%  
366 0.8% 45%  
367 1.4% 44%  
368 7% 43%  
369 11% 35%  
370 2% 24%  
371 1.2% 22%  
372 0.5% 21%  
373 3% 21%  
374 8% 18%  
375 2% 10%  
376 1.3% 9%  
377 0.6% 8%  
378 0.3% 7%  
379 0.1% 7%  
380 0.5% 7%  
381 3% 6%  
382 0.2% 3%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 1.2% 2%  
387 0.5% 1.0%  
388 0.1% 0.5%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0.1% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0% 99.5%  
292 0.9% 99.5%  
293 0% 98.7%  
294 0.1% 98.6%  
295 0.6% 98.5%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0.4% 97%  
300 0.8% 96%  
301 0.1% 95%  
302 2% 95%  
303 1.5% 94%  
304 0.4% 92%  
305 2% 92%  
306 5% 90%  
307 0.5% 85%  
308 0.3% 84%  
309 3% 84%  
310 1.2% 82%  
311 2% 80%  
312 10% 79%  
313 2% 69% Last Result
314 10% 67%  
315 4% 57%  
316 1.1% 53%  
317 0.8% 52%  
318 0.7% 51%  
319 0.4% 50%  
320 0.5% 50%  
321 1.5% 49% Median
322 2% 48%  
323 0.2% 46%  
324 0.1% 46%  
325 0.3% 46%  
326 0.3% 45% Majority
327 4% 45%  
328 2% 41%  
329 7% 39%  
330 1.3% 32%  
331 2% 31%  
332 0.6% 29%  
333 0.2% 28%  
334 0.4% 28%  
335 2% 28%  
336 8% 26%  
337 0.5% 18%  
338 2% 17%  
339 0.2% 15%  
340 0.2% 15%  
341 1.1% 15%  
342 0.5% 14%  
343 0.3% 13%  
344 1.0% 13%  
345 1.0% 12%  
346 0.8% 11%  
347 3% 10%  
348 0.1% 6%  
349 0.1% 6%  
350 0.6% 6%  
351 0% 6%  
352 0.2% 6%  
353 0.2% 6%  
354 0.2% 5%  
355 0.5% 5%  
356 0.5% 5%  
357 0.9% 4%  
358 0.1% 3%  
359 1.0% 3%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.3% 1.4%  
364 0.1% 1.1%  
365 0% 1.0%  
366 0% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 1.0%  
368 0.4% 0.9%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0.8% 99.5%  
288 0% 98.7%  
289 0.1% 98.7%  
290 0% 98.5%  
291 0.7% 98.5%  
292 0.8% 98%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.1% 97%  
295 0.7% 97%  
296 0.5% 96%  
297 0.1% 95%  
298 3% 95%  
299 0.6% 93%  
300 1.5% 92%  
301 1.1% 91%  
302 5% 90%  
303 0.1% 84%  
304 0.4% 84%  
305 2% 84%  
306 3% 82%  
307 8% 79%  
308 1.4% 71%  
309 2% 70% Last Result
310 14% 68%  
311 0.9% 54%  
312 1.4% 53%  
313 0.5% 51%  
314 0.4% 51%  
315 0.1% 51%  
316 1.1% 50%  
317 1.0% 49% Median
318 0.2% 48%  
319 1.0% 48%  
320 2% 47%  
321 0.3% 46%  
322 0.1% 45%  
323 0.3% 45%  
324 13% 45%  
325 0.4% 32%  
326 2% 32% Majority
327 1.0% 30%  
328 0.8% 29%  
329 0.5% 28%  
330 1.3% 28%  
331 0.1% 26%  
332 9% 26%  
333 0.4% 17%  
334 0.3% 17%  
335 2% 17%  
336 0.4% 15%  
337 1.1% 14%  
338 0.5% 13%  
339 0.2% 13%  
340 1.2% 13%  
341 1.4% 12%  
342 0.3% 10%  
343 3% 10%  
344 0.4% 7%  
345 0.4% 6%  
346 0.2% 6%  
347 0.1% 6%  
348 0% 6%  
349 0.3% 6%  
350 0.1% 5%  
351 0.5% 5%  
352 0.5% 5%  
353 0.4% 4%  
354 1.0% 4%  
355 0.8% 3%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.1% 1.5%  
359 0.1% 1.4%  
360 0% 1.3%  
361 0.3% 1.3%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.4% 0.9%  
364 0% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0.4% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0.1% 99.1%  
285 0.2% 99.1%  
286 0.3% 98.8%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.4% 97%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 0.3% 96%  
296 0.9% 96%  
297 0.2% 95%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 0.2% 94%  
300 0.2% 94%  
301 0.3% 94%  
302 0.1% 94%  
303 3% 94%  
304 2% 90%  
305 0.1% 89%  
306 0.1% 89%  
307 0.6% 89%  
308 0.6% 88%  
309 9% 87%  
310 0.8% 79%  
311 1.3% 78%  
312 0.5% 77%  
313 3% 76%  
314 2% 73%  
315 0.5% 71%  
316 0% 71%  
317 0.3% 71%  
318 0.1% 70%  
319 0.6% 70%  
320 8% 70%  
321 2% 62%  
322 1.1% 60%  
323 0.6% 59%  
324 2% 58%  
325 0.2% 56%  
326 0.1% 56% Majority
327 5% 56%  
328 0.2% 51%  
329 0.8% 51% Last Result
330 1.1% 50% Median
331 0.5% 49%  
332 11% 49%  
333 5% 37%  
334 1.1% 33%  
335 1.0% 32%  
336 2% 31%  
337 1.0% 29%  
338 2% 28%  
339 8% 26%  
340 2% 18%  
341 5% 16%  
342 1.5% 11%  
343 2% 10%  
344 0.3% 8%  
345 2% 7%  
346 1.0% 6%  
347 0.5% 5%  
348 0.5% 4%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.1% 3%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 1.0% 1.4%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 1.0% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 98.6%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.1% 97%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 0.7% 97%  
283 0.5% 96%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 1.0% 95%  
286 2% 94%  
287 0.1% 92%  
288 2% 92%  
289 1.4% 90%  
290 5% 89%  
291 2% 84%  
292 8% 82%  
293 2% 74%  
294 1.0% 72%  
295 2% 71%  
296 0.5% 69%  
297 4% 68%  
298 1.3% 64%  
299 11% 63%  
300 0.5% 51%  
301 1.4% 51% Last Result
302 0.4% 49%  
303 1.0% 49% Median
304 4% 48%  
305 0.2% 44%  
306 0.1% 44%  
307 2% 44%  
308 0.5% 42%  
309 1.1% 41%  
310 2% 40%  
311 8% 38%  
312 0.2% 30%  
313 0.3% 30%  
314 0.1% 30%  
315 0.2% 29%  
316 0.6% 29%  
317 2% 29%  
318 2% 26%  
319 0.6% 24%  
320 1.3% 23%  
321 0.8% 22%  
322 9% 21%  
323 1.1% 13%  
324 0.2% 11%  
325 0% 11%  
326 0.3% 11% Majority
327 1.5% 11%  
328 3% 9%  
329 0.1% 6%  
330 0.2% 6%  
331 0.2% 6%  
332 0.1% 6%  
333 0.5% 6%  
334 0.2% 5%  
335 0.9% 5%  
336 0.5% 4%  
337 0% 4%  
338 0.4% 4%  
339 0% 3%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0.4% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.5%  
268 0.4% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.1%  
270 0.3% 99.0%  
271 0.1% 98.7%  
272 0% 98.6%  
273 0.1% 98.6%  
274 0.2% 98.5%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.8% 98%  
277 1.0% 97%  
278 0.6% 96%  
279 0.4% 96%  
280 0.5% 95%  
281 0% 95%  
282 0.3% 95%  
283 0.1% 94%  
284 0.1% 94%  
285 0.2% 94%  
286 0.4% 94%  
287 0.4% 94%  
288 3% 93%  
289 0.9% 90%  
290 0.9% 89%  
291 1.2% 88%  
292 0.1% 87%  
293 0.7% 87%  
294 0.9% 87%  
295 0.4% 86%  
296 2% 85%  
297 0.3% 83%  
298 0.3% 83%  
299 9% 83%  
300 0.1% 74%  
301 1.4% 74%  
302 0.6% 72%  
303 0.6% 72%  
304 1.4% 71%  
305 1.2% 70%  
306 0.7% 68%  
307 13% 68%  
308 0.1% 55%  
309 0.3% 55%  
310 0.1% 55%  
311 1.5% 54%  
312 1.2% 53%  
313 0.2% 52%  
314 0.9% 52%  
315 1.1% 51%  
316 0.1% 50% Median
317 0.4% 49%  
318 0.9% 49%  
319 2% 48%  
320 2% 46%  
321 13% 44% Last Result
322 1.4% 32%  
323 1.4% 30%  
324 9% 29%  
325 3% 20%  
326 0.5% 17% Majority
327 0.4% 16%  
328 0.2% 16%  
329 5% 15%  
330 1.1% 10%  
331 1.5% 9%  
332 0.6% 8%  
333 3% 7%  
334 0.1% 5%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.1% 3%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.8% 3%  
340 0.7% 2%  
341 0% 1.5%  
342 0.1% 1.5%  
343 0% 1.3%  
344 0.8% 1.3%  
345 0% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.8% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 98.8%  
271 0.3% 98.7%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.5% 97%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 0.1% 96%  
279 0.3% 96%  
280 1.3% 96%  
281 0.3% 95%  
282 2% 94%  
283 2% 92%  
284 1.5% 91%  
285 0.9% 89%  
286 5% 88%  
287 8% 83%  
288 0.1% 75%  
289 2% 74%  
290 0.2% 73%  
291 2% 73%  
292 6% 71%  
293 0.6% 65%  
294 3% 65%  
295 10% 61%  
296 0.7% 51%  
297 0.6% 50% Last Result
298 1.0% 50%  
299 1.2% 49% Median
300 0.2% 48%  
301 4% 47%  
302 0.3% 44%  
303 2% 43%  
304 0.5% 41%  
305 1.0% 41%  
306 8% 40%  
307 0.7% 32%  
308 1.4% 31%  
309 0.4% 30%  
310 0.3% 29%  
311 0.1% 29%  
312 1.5% 29%  
313 1.2% 28%  
314 1.1% 26%  
315 3% 25%  
316 0.2% 22%  
317 0.3% 22%  
318 10% 22%  
319 0.2% 12%  
320 0.4% 12%  
321 0.2% 11%  
322 1.3% 11%  
323 0.4% 10%  
324 3% 9%  
325 0.3% 6%  
326 0.2% 6% Majority
327 0.2% 6%  
328 0.1% 6%  
329 0.2% 6%  
330 1.3% 5%  
331 0.3% 4%  
332 0.1% 4%  
333 0.1% 4%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.1% 3%  
336 0% 3%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.5%  
342 0.1% 1.3%  
343 0.3% 1.1%  
344 0.5% 0.9%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.6%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.4% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98.9%  
269 0.1% 98.6%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.1% 98%  
272 1.0% 98%  
273 0.1% 97%  
274 0.9% 97%  
275 0.6% 96%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 0% 95%  
278 0.2% 95%  
279 0.2% 94%  
280 0% 94%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.1% 94%  
283 0.1% 94%  
284 4% 93%  
285 0.3% 90%  
286 1.0% 89%  
287 0.9% 88%  
288 0.4% 87%  
289 0.4% 87%  
290 1.1% 86%  
291 0.3% 85%  
292 0.1% 85%  
293 2% 85%  
294 0.3% 83%  
295 8% 82%  
296 2% 74%  
297 0.4% 72%  
298 0.4% 72%  
299 0.9% 72%  
300 1.4% 71%  
301 1.3% 69%  
302 8% 68%  
303 2% 60%  
304 4% 58%  
305 0.2% 55%  
306 0.2% 54%  
307 0.3% 54%  
308 0% 54%  
309 2% 54%  
310 1.4% 52%  
311 0.6% 51%  
312 0.3% 50% Median
313 1.1% 50%  
314 0.9% 49%  
315 2% 48%  
316 3% 45%  
317 9% 42% Last Result
318 2% 33%  
319 10% 31%  
320 3% 21%  
321 0.7% 19%  
322 2% 18%  
323 0.4% 16%  
324 0.4% 15%  
325 5% 15%  
326 2% 10% Majority
327 0.4% 8%  
328 1.5% 8%  
329 2% 6%  
330 0.1% 5%  
331 0.7% 5%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.5%  
338 0% 1.4%  
339 0.9% 1.3%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0.1% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.5% 99.5%  
245 1.2% 99.0%  
246 0.1% 98%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.5% 97%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 3% 96%  
251 0.5% 94%  
252 0.1% 93%  
253 0.3% 93%  
254 1.1% 93%  
255 0.7% 92%  
256 2% 91%  
257 9% 89%  
258 2% 81%  
259 0.4% 79%  
260 1.2% 79%  
261 4% 78%  
262 9% 74%  
263 7% 64%  
264 1.3% 57%  
265 1.3% 56%  
266 0.6% 55%  
267 2% 54%  
268 2% 52%  
269 0.1% 50%  
270 1.1% 50% Median
271 3% 49%  
272 0.3% 46%  
273 0.3% 45%  
274 0.7% 45%  
275 0.3% 44%  
276 4% 44%  
277 0.9% 40%  
278 8% 39% Last Result
279 0.6% 32%  
280 0.3% 31%  
281 0.7% 31%  
282 8% 30%  
283 2% 22%  
284 0.1% 20%  
285 0.4% 19%  
286 2% 19%  
287 1.3% 17%  
288 0.6% 16%  
289 0.8% 15%  
290 1.4% 14%  
291 0.3% 13%  
292 0.5% 12%  
293 0.8% 12%  
294 1.3% 11%  
295 0.2% 10%  
296 0.4% 10%  
297 0.2% 9%  
298 3% 9%  
299 0.2% 6%  
300 0.7% 6%  
301 0.2% 5%  
302 0.1% 5%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 0.1% 5%  
305 0.6% 4%  
306 0.9% 4%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0% 1.4%  
312 0.4% 1.4%  
313 0.1% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.9%  
315 0.3% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.7%  
237 0% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 1.2% 99.4%  
241 0% 98%  
242 0.8% 98%  
243 0.3% 97%  
244 0.4% 97%  
245 1.4% 97%  
246 2% 95%  
247 0.2% 94%  
248 0.5% 94%  
249 0.1% 93%  
250 0.6% 93%  
251 0.9% 92%  
252 3% 91%  
253 7% 88%  
254 2% 81%  
255 1.4% 79%  
256 3% 78%  
257 0.2% 75%  
258 15% 75%  
259 3% 60%  
260 2% 57%  
261 0.4% 55%  
262 0.2% 55%  
263 2% 54%  
264 0.7% 52%  
265 2% 52%  
266 3% 50% Median
267 0.7% 47%  
268 1.2% 47%  
269 0.6% 45%  
270 0.7% 45%  
271 0.3% 44%  
272 0.8% 44%  
273 11% 43%  
274 1.0% 32% Last Result
275 0.1% 31%  
276 0.3% 31%  
277 0.7% 31%  
278 9% 30%  
279 2% 22%  
280 0.6% 20%  
281 0.1% 19%  
282 1.4% 19%  
283 2% 18%  
284 0.3% 16%  
285 2% 15%  
286 1.3% 14%  
287 0.1% 12%  
288 0.1% 12%  
289 2% 12%  
290 0.9% 11%  
291 0.1% 10%  
292 0.3% 10%  
293 0.5% 9%  
294 3% 9%  
295 0.2% 6%  
296 0.6% 6%  
297 0.2% 5%  
298 0.3% 5%  
299 0.1% 5%  
300 0.2% 5%  
301 0.4% 4%  
302 1.2% 4%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.7% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.6% 2%  
308 0% 1.0%  
309 0.1% 1.0%  
310 0.3% 0.9%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0.4% 99.7%  
227 0% 99.3%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 1.0% 99.1%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.9% 97%  
233 0.7% 96%  
234 2% 96%  
235 0.8% 94%  
236 0.3% 93%  
237 0.5% 93%  
238 0% 92%  
239 0.9% 92%  
240 4% 91%  
241 6% 88%  
242 4% 82%  
243 11% 77%  
244 2% 67%  
245 0.9% 65%  
246 0.6% 64%  
247 9% 63%  
248 1.4% 54%  
249 0.1% 53%  
250 2% 53%  
251 1.1% 51%  
252 1.1% 50% Median
253 4% 49%  
254 0.7% 45%  
255 3% 45%  
256 0% 41%  
257 0% 41%  
258 0.3% 41%  
259 1.2% 41%  
260 8% 40%  
261 0.5% 32%  
262 2% 31%  
263 0.8% 29%  
264 0.2% 28%  
265 0.1% 28%  
266 3% 28% Last Result
267 0.2% 25%  
268 10% 25%  
269 0.4% 14%  
270 1.2% 14%  
271 0.5% 13%  
272 1.1% 12%  
273 0% 11%  
274 0.2% 11%  
275 0.4% 11%  
276 1.1% 10%  
277 0.2% 9%  
278 0.1% 9%  
279 3% 9%  
280 0.2% 6%  
281 0.3% 6%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.9% 5%  
284 0.2% 4%  
285 0.2% 4%  
286 0.3% 4%  
287 0.1% 3%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.7% 3%  
290 0.3% 2%  
291 0.3% 2%  
292 0.1% 1.2%  
293 0.4% 1.2%  
294 0.1% 0.8%  
295 0.2% 0.7%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0.1% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0.1% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.8%  
218 0% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0% 99.7%  
221 0% 99.7%  
222 0.4% 99.7%  
223 0.1% 99.3%  
224 0.4% 99.2%  
225 0.3% 98.7%  
226 0.8% 98%  
227 0.9% 98%  
228 0.8% 97%  
229 0.4% 96%  
230 2% 95%  
231 0.3% 94%  
232 0.5% 93%  
233 0.4% 93%  
234 0.1% 92%  
235 2% 92%  
236 2% 90%  
237 6% 88%  
238 10% 82%  
239 4% 71%  
240 3% 67%  
241 0.7% 64%  
242 0.8% 64%  
243 10% 63%  
244 0.2% 53%  
245 0.1% 53%  
246 0.9% 53%  
247 2% 52%  
248 1.0% 50% Median
249 0.7% 49%  
250 6% 48%  
251 0.1% 43%  
252 0.1% 42%  
253 1.3% 42%  
254 0.8% 41%  
255 8% 40%  
256 1.0% 32%  
257 0.1% 31%  
258 2% 31%  
259 0.3% 29%  
260 0.1% 29%  
261 0.5% 28%  
262 1.3% 28% Last Result
263 3% 27%  
264 10% 24%  
265 0.8% 14%  
266 0.4% 14%  
267 2% 13%  
268 0% 11%  
269 0.1% 11%  
270 0.3% 11%  
271 1.1% 11%  
272 0.3% 10%  
273 0.2% 9%  
274 0.4% 9%  
275 3% 9%  
276 0.1% 6%  
277 0.2% 6%  
278 1.0% 5%  
279 0.4% 4%  
280 0.3% 4%  
281 0.4% 4%  
282 0% 3%  
283 0.1% 3%  
284 0.4% 3%  
285 0.4% 3%  
286 0.1% 2%  
287 0.7% 2%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.3% 1.1%  
290 0.2% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations