Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 4–5 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 44.3% 42.8–45.9% 42.3–46.4% 41.9–46.8% 41.2–47.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.3% 35.8–38.9% 35.3–39.3% 35.0–39.7% 34.2–40.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.4–4.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 339 324–357 319–362 313–368 301–376
Labour Party 262 231 218–244 211–250 208–258 198–270
Liberal Democrats 12 15 8–19 6–20 6–21 3–23
Scottish National Party 35 42 33–51 24–53 23–54 15–55
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.2%  
306 0.1% 99.0%  
307 0% 98.9%  
308 0.3% 98.9%  
309 0.2% 98.6%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.4% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.2% 96% Last Result
318 0.6% 96%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 0.7% 95%  
321 1.0% 94%  
322 0.8% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 0.8% 91%  
325 2% 90%  
326 0.9% 88% Majority
327 1.0% 87%  
328 2% 86%  
329 3% 84%  
330 3% 81%  
331 2% 78%  
332 4% 77%  
333 5% 72%  
334 2% 67%  
335 5% 65%  
336 2% 61%  
337 3% 59%  
338 4% 56%  
339 4% 51% Median
340 2% 47%  
341 2% 45%  
342 3% 43%  
343 4% 40%  
344 3% 37%  
345 2% 34%  
346 2% 32%  
347 3% 29%  
348 2% 27%  
349 2% 24%  
350 5% 22%  
351 3% 18%  
352 1.3% 15%  
353 0.8% 14%  
354 1.3% 13%  
355 0.8% 12%  
356 0.9% 11%  
357 1.0% 10%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.8% 8%  
360 0.4% 7%  
361 1.1% 6%  
362 0.7% 5%  
363 0.5% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.5% 4%  
366 0.4% 3%  
367 0.1% 3%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.6% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.4%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0% 0.5%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.1% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.5%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.1% 99.3%  
202 0.1% 99.2%  
203 0.3% 99.1%  
204 0.2% 98.8%  
205 0.3% 98.6%  
206 0.4% 98%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0.6% 98%  
209 1.2% 97%  
210 0.7% 96%  
211 1.1% 95%  
212 0.5% 94%  
213 0.3% 94%  
214 1.0% 93%  
215 1.4% 92%  
216 0.4% 91%  
217 0.4% 90%  
218 0.7% 90%  
219 2% 89%  
220 2% 87%  
221 2% 86%  
222 4% 84%  
223 1.3% 80%  
224 2% 78%  
225 4% 76%  
226 4% 72%  
227 5% 68%  
228 5% 63%  
229 2% 58%  
230 2% 55%  
231 5% 53% Median
232 2% 49%  
233 4% 47%  
234 3% 43%  
235 0.8% 40%  
236 2% 39%  
237 2% 37%  
238 6% 35%  
239 4% 29%  
240 5% 25%  
241 5% 19%  
242 2% 15%  
243 1.1% 13%  
244 3% 12%  
245 0.9% 9%  
246 0.5% 8%  
247 0.2% 8%  
248 1.1% 8%  
249 0.5% 6%  
250 1.1% 6%  
251 0.7% 5%  
252 0.3% 4%  
253 0.3% 4%  
254 0.3% 4%  
255 0.2% 3%  
256 0.3% 3%  
257 0.3% 3%  
258 0.1% 3%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.3% 2%  
261 0.2% 2%  
262 0.1% 2% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.4% 2%  
265 0.3% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 0.9%  
267 0.1% 0.8%  
268 0.1% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.3%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.4%  
5 1.3% 99.1%  
6 3% 98%  
7 2% 95%  
8 3% 93%  
9 2% 90%  
10 3% 88%  
11 6% 85%  
12 5% 79% Last Result
13 5% 74%  
14 8% 69%  
15 12% 61% Median
16 17% 49%  
17 9% 32%  
18 11% 22%  
19 6% 11%  
20 2% 5%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.5%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0.1% 99.7%  
13 0% 99.6%  
14 0% 99.6%  
15 0.1% 99.6%  
16 0% 99.5%  
17 0.1% 99.4%  
18 0.1% 99.3%  
19 0.3% 99.2%  
20 0.3% 98.9%  
21 0.6% 98.6%  
22 0% 98%  
23 1.1% 98%  
24 2% 97%  
25 0.8% 95%  
26 0.3% 94%  
27 0.4% 94%  
28 0.1% 93%  
29 1.0% 93%  
30 0.3% 92%  
31 0.2% 92%  
32 1.1% 92%  
33 1.3% 91%  
34 2% 89%  
35 3% 88% Last Result
36 2% 85%  
37 3% 83%  
38 2% 80%  
39 2% 78%  
40 6% 77%  
41 15% 70%  
42 16% 55% Median
43 4% 40%  
44 1.4% 35%  
45 2% 34%  
46 6% 32%  
47 0.9% 26%  
48 5% 26%  
49 5% 20%  
50 5% 16%  
51 5% 11%  
52 0.9% 6%  
53 2% 5%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.9% 1.1%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 2% 93%  
2 21% 91%  
3 24% 70% Median
4 22% 46% Last Result
5 24% 24%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 385 100% 371–400 365–407 357–412 344–419
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 382 100% 368–397 362–403 354–408 341–415
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 354 98% 339–370 333–376 328–381 316–389
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 342 92% 327–360 323–365 316–371 304–379
Conservative Party 317 339 88% 324–357 319–362 313–368 301–376
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 292 1.0% 274–307 269–312 263–317 255–330
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 288 0.6% 271–304 266–308 260–314 252–327
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 277 0.1% 261–292 255–298 250–303 242–315
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 274 0.1% 257–288 252–295 247–300 237–312
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 249 0% 234–263 228–269 223–277 216–290
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 246 0% 231–260 224–266 219–274 212–287
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 234 0% 221–248 214–253 210–261 202–272
Labour Party 262 231 0% 218–244 211–250 208–258 198–270

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0% 99.8%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.1% 99.6%  
344 0% 99.5%  
345 0.1% 99.5%  
346 0.1% 99.4%  
347 0.1% 99.4%  
348 0.1% 99.2%  
349 0.4% 99.1%  
350 0.1% 98.7%  
351 0.2% 98.6%  
352 0.1% 98%  
353 0.1% 98%  
354 0.1% 98%  
355 0.3% 98%  
356 0.3% 98% Last Result
357 0.2% 98%  
358 0.1% 97%  
359 0.4% 97%  
360 0.2% 97%  
361 0.4% 97%  
362 0.3% 96%  
363 0.3% 96%  
364 0.5% 96%  
365 0.6% 95%  
366 0.6% 95%  
367 1.0% 94%  
368 1.0% 93%  
369 0.4% 92%  
370 0.9% 92%  
371 2% 91%  
372 3% 88%  
373 2% 86%  
374 3% 84%  
375 3% 81%  
376 4% 78%  
377 3% 74%  
378 5% 71%  
379 2% 65%  
380 2% 64%  
381 2% 62%  
382 2% 60%  
383 2% 57%  
384 3% 55% Median
385 4% 52%  
386 3% 48%  
387 3% 45%  
388 4% 41%  
389 1.0% 38%  
390 2% 37%  
391 5% 34%  
392 2% 29%  
393 6% 28%  
394 2% 22%  
395 4% 20%  
396 0.7% 16%  
397 1.2% 15%  
398 1.0% 14%  
399 2% 13%  
400 1.4% 11%  
401 1.1% 10%  
402 0.5% 9%  
403 1.0% 8%  
404 0.5% 7%  
405 0.9% 7%  
406 0.5% 6%  
407 0.6% 5%  
408 0.4% 5%  
409 0.4% 4%  
410 0.4% 4%  
411 0.9% 3%  
412 0.7% 3%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.3%  
416 0.1% 1.2%  
417 0.3% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.7%  
419 0.2% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.1% 99.7%  
340 0% 99.6%  
341 0.1% 99.6%  
342 0.1% 99.5%  
343 0.1% 99.4%  
344 0.1% 99.4%  
345 0.3% 99.3%  
346 0.2% 99.0%  
347 0.2% 98.8%  
348 0.1% 98.6%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.1% 98%  
351 0.3% 98%  
352 0.1% 98% Last Result
353 0.2% 98%  
354 0.2% 98%  
355 0.3% 97%  
356 0.2% 97%  
357 0.2% 97%  
358 0.2% 97%  
359 0.2% 96%  
360 0.5% 96%  
361 0.5% 96%  
362 0.5% 95%  
363 0.6% 95%  
364 0.6% 94%  
365 1.2% 94%  
366 0.8% 92%  
367 1.2% 92%  
368 1.3% 90%  
369 2% 89%  
370 3% 87%  
371 4% 84%  
372 3% 80%  
373 4% 76%  
374 5% 73%  
375 2% 68%  
376 3% 66%  
377 2% 63%  
378 2% 61%  
379 2% 59%  
380 3% 56%  
381 2% 53% Median
382 3% 51%  
383 3% 48%  
384 3% 46%  
385 4% 42%  
386 3% 38%  
387 3% 35%  
388 4% 32%  
389 3% 28%  
390 3% 25%  
391 1.4% 22%  
392 5% 21%  
393 1.4% 16%  
394 2% 14%  
395 0.9% 12%  
396 1.4% 12%  
397 1.1% 10%  
398 0.8% 9%  
399 0.8% 8%  
400 0.4% 7%  
401 0.8% 7%  
402 0.5% 6%  
403 0.8% 6%  
404 0.4% 5%  
405 0.7% 5%  
406 0.4% 4%  
407 0.6% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.1% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.5% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.3%  
413 0.1% 1.0%  
414 0.2% 0.8%  
415 0.2% 0.7%  
416 0.1% 0.5%  
417 0% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0% 99.7%  
313 0% 99.7%  
314 0% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.4%  
318 0.1% 99.3%  
319 0% 99.3%  
320 0.2% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.1%  
322 0.2% 98.9%  
323 0.2% 98.8%  
324 0.2% 98.6%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0.1% 98% Majority
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.2% 97% Last Result
330 0.2% 97%  
331 0.7% 97%  
332 0.7% 96%  
333 1.0% 96%  
334 0.3% 95%  
335 0.9% 94%  
336 0.8% 93%  
337 0.8% 93%  
338 0.7% 92%  
339 2% 91%  
340 2% 89%  
341 1.1% 88%  
342 1.3% 87%  
343 0.8% 85%  
344 3% 84%  
345 2% 82%  
346 2% 79%  
347 7% 77%  
348 5% 71%  
349 3% 65%  
350 3% 62%  
351 2% 59%  
352 3% 57%  
353 3% 54%  
354 3% 50% Median
355 2% 47%  
356 2% 45%  
357 1.5% 42%  
358 2% 41%  
359 5% 38%  
360 2% 33%  
361 3% 31%  
362 3% 28%  
363 3% 25%  
364 4% 22%  
365 2% 18%  
366 2% 17%  
367 0.4% 15%  
368 2% 14%  
369 1.0% 12%  
370 2% 11%  
371 1.3% 9%  
372 0.6% 8%  
373 0.8% 7%  
374 1.1% 7%  
375 0.4% 6%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 0.3% 5%  
378 0.6% 4%  
379 0.6% 4%  
380 0.3% 3%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.2% 2%  
383 0.6% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.1% 1.0%  
387 0.2% 0.9%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0% 99.3%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0% 99.0%  
310 0.1% 99.0%  
311 0.2% 98.9%  
312 0.3% 98.7%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.2% 98%  
315 0.3% 98%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.2% 97%  
318 0.6% 97%  
319 0.3% 97%  
320 0.5% 96%  
321 0.1% 96% Last Result
322 0.5% 96%  
323 0.9% 95%  
324 0.9% 94%  
325 2% 93%  
326 0.9% 92% Majority
327 1.0% 91%  
328 1.4% 90%  
329 0.9% 88%  
330 0.6% 87%  
331 1.1% 87%  
332 4% 86%  
333 3% 81%  
334 2% 78%  
335 3% 76%  
336 2% 73%  
337 8% 71%  
338 2% 63%  
339 3% 62%  
340 4% 59%  
341 2% 55%  
342 4% 54% Median
343 4% 50%  
344 2% 46%  
345 3% 44%  
346 3% 40%  
347 3% 37%  
348 2% 34%  
349 3% 32%  
350 1.4% 29%  
351 3% 28%  
352 3% 25%  
353 3% 22%  
354 3% 19%  
355 2% 16%  
356 1.3% 15%  
357 0.6% 13%  
358 1.0% 13%  
359 0.8% 12%  
360 1.3% 11%  
361 1.0% 10%  
362 1.0% 9%  
363 2% 8%  
364 0.9% 6%  
365 0.6% 5%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.3% 4%  
368 0.4% 4%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.1% 3%  
371 0.3% 3%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.1% 1.3%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0.1% 0.9%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.5%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.2%  
306 0.1% 99.0%  
307 0% 98.9%  
308 0.3% 98.9%  
309 0.2% 98.6%  
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.4% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.2% 96% Last Result
318 0.6% 96%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 0.7% 95%  
321 1.0% 94%  
322 0.8% 93%  
323 2% 92%  
324 0.8% 91%  
325 2% 90%  
326 0.9% 88% Majority
327 1.0% 87%  
328 2% 86%  
329 3% 84%  
330 3% 81%  
331 2% 78%  
332 4% 77%  
333 5% 72%  
334 2% 67%  
335 5% 65%  
336 2% 61%  
337 3% 59%  
338 4% 56%  
339 4% 51% Median
340 2% 47%  
341 2% 45%  
342 3% 43%  
343 4% 40%  
344 3% 37%  
345 2% 34%  
346 2% 32%  
347 3% 29%  
348 2% 27%  
349 2% 24%  
350 5% 22%  
351 3% 18%  
352 1.3% 15%  
353 0.8% 14%  
354 1.3% 13%  
355 0.8% 12%  
356 0.9% 11%  
357 1.0% 10%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.8% 8%  
360 0.4% 7%  
361 1.1% 6%  
362 0.7% 5%  
363 0.5% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.5% 4%  
366 0.4% 3%  
367 0.1% 3%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.6% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.4%  
372 0.2% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0% 0.5%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.6%  
254 0% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.4%  
258 0.2% 99.2%  
259 0.2% 99.0%  
260 0.3% 98.9%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.6% 98%  
263 0.4% 98%  
264 0.1% 97%  
265 0.4% 97%  
266 0.5% 97%  
267 0.5% 96%  
268 0.5% 96%  
269 0.7% 95%  
270 1.0% 95%  
271 0.4% 94%  
272 0.8% 93%  
273 2% 92%  
274 1.0% 91%  
275 0.9% 90%  
276 0.8% 89%  
277 1.2% 88%  
278 0.9% 87%  
279 1.2% 86%  
280 3% 85%  
281 4% 82%  
282 2% 78%  
283 3% 76%  
284 3% 73%  
285 2% 71%  
286 2% 68%  
287 3% 66%  
288 4% 63%  
289 3% 60%  
290 2% 57%  
291 2% 55% Median
292 4% 53%  
293 4% 48%  
294 3% 44%  
295 2% 41%  
296 5% 39%  
297 2% 34%  
298 5% 32%  
299 5% 28%  
300 1.5% 23%  
301 3% 21%  
302 3% 18%  
303 2% 15%  
304 1.0% 14%  
305 0.9% 13%  
306 2% 12%  
307 0.9% 10%  
308 2% 9%  
309 0.9% 8%  
310 1.0% 7%  
311 0.7% 6%  
312 0.6% 5%  
313 0.6% 4% Last Result
314 0.2% 4%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.6% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.4%  
324 0.1% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 1.0%  
326 0.2% 1.0% Majority
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0% 99.6%  
250 0% 99.6%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.1% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 99.1%  
256 0.1% 98.8%  
257 0.3% 98.7%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.1% 97%  
262 0.6% 97%  
263 0.4% 97%  
264 0.4% 96%  
265 0.4% 96%  
266 0.6% 96%  
267 0.9% 95%  
268 2% 94%  
269 1.0% 92%  
270 1.0% 91%  
271 1.3% 90%  
272 0.8% 89%  
273 1.0% 88%  
274 0.7% 87%  
275 1.3% 87%  
276 2% 85%  
277 3% 84%  
278 3% 81%  
279 3% 78%  
280 3% 75%  
281 1.5% 72%  
282 3% 70%  
283 2% 68%  
284 3% 66%  
285 3% 63%  
286 3% 60%  
287 2% 56%  
288 5% 54% Median
289 4% 50%  
290 2% 46%  
291 4% 44%  
292 2% 41%  
293 2% 38%  
294 8% 37%  
295 3% 29%  
296 2% 26%  
297 3% 24%  
298 3% 21%  
299 4% 18%  
300 0.9% 14%  
301 0.5% 13%  
302 0.9% 13%  
303 1.4% 12%  
304 1.3% 10%  
305 0.7% 9%  
306 2% 8%  
307 1.1% 7%  
308 0.7% 6%  
309 0.5% 5% Last Result
310 0.1% 4%  
311 0.5% 4%  
312 0.3% 4%  
313 0.7% 3%  
314 0.2% 3%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.1% 1.1%  
322 0.1% 1.0%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0% 99.5%  
242 0.1% 99.5%  
243 0.1% 99.4%  
244 0.2% 99.3%  
245 0.1% 99.1%  
246 0.1% 99.0%  
247 0.4% 98.8%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.3% 97%  
252 0.6% 97%  
253 0.6% 96%  
254 0.2% 96%  
255 0.6% 95%  
256 0.4% 95%  
257 1.1% 94%  
258 0.8% 93%  
259 0.6% 93%  
260 1.4% 92%  
261 2% 91%  
262 0.9% 89%  
263 2% 88%  
264 0.6% 86%  
265 2% 85%  
266 2% 83%  
267 4% 82%  
268 3% 78%  
269 4% 75%  
270 2% 72%  
271 2% 69%  
272 6% 67%  
273 2% 61%  
274 1.5% 59%  
275 3% 58%  
276 2% 55% Median
277 3% 53%  
278 3% 50%  
279 4% 46%  
280 2% 43%  
281 3% 41%  
282 2% 37%  
283 6% 35%  
284 6% 29%  
285 2% 22%  
286 2% 21%  
287 3% 18%  
288 0.7% 15%  
289 1.3% 15%  
290 1.1% 13%  
291 2% 12%  
292 2% 11%  
293 0.8% 9%  
294 0.7% 8%  
295 0.9% 7%  
296 0.8% 6%  
297 0.4% 6%  
298 0.9% 5%  
299 0.8% 4%  
300 0.7% 4%  
301 0.1% 3% Last Result
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.2% 1.4%  
309 0.2% 1.2%  
310 0.1% 1.0%  
311 0.2% 0.9%  
312 0% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.1% 99.3%  
241 0.2% 99.2%  
242 0.3% 99.1%  
243 0.2% 98.8%  
244 0.2% 98.6%  
245 0.7% 98%  
246 0.1% 98%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.2% 97%  
249 0.4% 97%  
250 0.4% 97%  
251 1.0% 96%  
252 0.7% 95%  
253 0.5% 94%  
254 0.2% 94%  
255 1.2% 94%  
256 1.3% 92%  
257 1.3% 91%  
258 2% 90%  
259 1.1% 88%  
260 2% 87%  
261 1.5% 85%  
262 1.0% 84%  
263 2% 83%  
264 4% 80%  
265 2% 77%  
266 3% 75%  
267 2% 72%  
268 4% 70%  
269 4% 66%  
270 3% 62%  
271 1.4% 59%  
272 2% 57%  
273 3% 55% Median
274 3% 52%  
275 4% 49%  
276 3% 45%  
277 3% 42%  
278 4% 39%  
279 4% 35%  
280 3% 32%  
281 5% 29%  
282 4% 24%  
283 3% 20%  
284 1.0% 17%  
285 2% 16%  
286 0.9% 14%  
287 2% 13%  
288 2% 12%  
289 0.5% 10%  
290 2% 9%  
291 0.9% 8%  
292 0.6% 7%  
293 0.6% 6%  
294 0.4% 6%  
295 0.8% 5%  
296 1.1% 4%  
297 0.2% 3% Last Result
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.2% 3%  
300 0.2% 3%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.1% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.3%  
306 0.1% 1.1%  
307 0.2% 1.0%  
308 0% 0.8%  
309 0% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.5%  
313 0.1% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.8%  
213 0.1% 99.7%  
214 0% 99.6%  
215 0.1% 99.6%  
216 0.2% 99.5%  
217 0.2% 99.3%  
218 0.1% 99.2%  
219 0.3% 99.0%  
220 0.5% 98.7%  
221 0.5% 98%  
222 0.1% 98%  
223 0.5% 98%  
224 0.6% 97%  
225 0.5% 97%  
226 0.6% 96%  
227 0.4% 95%  
228 0.8% 95%  
229 0.5% 94%  
230 0.8% 94%  
231 0.4% 93%  
232 0.8% 93%  
233 0.8% 92%  
234 1.1% 91%  
235 1.4% 90%  
236 1.0% 88%  
237 2% 87%  
238 1.3% 86%  
239 5% 84%  
240 1.5% 79%  
241 3% 78%  
242 3% 75%  
243 4% 72%  
244 2% 67%  
245 3% 65%  
246 4% 62%  
247 3% 58%  
248 3% 54%  
249 3% 52% Median
250 2% 48%  
251 4% 47%  
252 2% 43%  
253 2% 41%  
254 2% 39%  
255 3% 37%  
256 2% 34%  
257 5% 32%  
258 4% 27%  
259 3% 23%  
260 4% 20%  
261 4% 16%  
262 2% 12%  
263 1.0% 10%  
264 1.1% 9%  
265 0.8% 8%  
266 1.1% 8%  
267 0.7% 6%  
268 0.5% 6%  
269 0.5% 5%  
270 0.5% 5%  
271 0.4% 4%  
272 0.2% 4%  
273 0.2% 4%  
274 0.2% 3%  
275 0.2% 3%  
276 0.3% 3%  
277 0.2% 3%  
278 0.2% 2% Last Result
279 0.2% 2%  
280 0.3% 2%  
281 0.1% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.4%  
285 0.2% 1.2%  
286 0.3% 1.0%  
287 0.1% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.7%  
209 0% 99.7%  
210 0.1% 99.7%  
211 0.1% 99.6%  
212 0.2% 99.5%  
213 0.1% 99.4%  
214 0.3% 99.3%  
215 0.2% 99.0%  
216 0.2% 98.8%  
217 0.3% 98.7%  
218 0.2% 98%  
219 0.7% 98%  
220 0.9% 97%  
221 0.4% 97%  
222 0.3% 96%  
223 0.4% 96%  
224 0.6% 95%  
225 0.5% 95%  
226 0.9% 94%  
227 0.5% 93%  
228 1.0% 93%  
229 0.5% 92%  
230 1.1% 91%  
231 1.3% 90%  
232 2% 89%  
233 1.0% 87%  
234 1.2% 86%  
235 0.7% 85%  
236 4% 84%  
237 2% 80%  
238 6% 78%  
239 2% 72%  
240 5% 70%  
241 2% 66%  
242 0.8% 63%  
243 4% 62%  
244 4% 59%  
245 3% 55%  
246 4% 52% Median
247 3% 48%  
248 2% 45%  
249 3% 43%  
250 2% 40%  
251 2% 38%  
252 1.2% 36%  
253 6% 34%  
254 3% 29%  
255 4% 26%  
256 3% 22%  
257 3% 19%  
258 2% 16%  
259 3% 14%  
260 2% 11%  
261 0.8% 9%  
262 0.4% 8%  
263 1.1% 8%  
264 0.8% 7%  
265 0.7% 6%  
266 0.6% 5%  
267 0.5% 5%  
268 0.3% 4%  
269 0.3% 4%  
270 0.4% 4%  
271 0.2% 3%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.1% 3%  
274 0.2% 3% Last Result
275 0.4% 2%  
276 0.2% 2%  
277 0.1% 2%  
278 0.1% 2%  
279 0.1% 2%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.1% 1.3%  
282 0.4% 1.3%  
283 0.1% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.8%  
285 0.1% 0.6%  
286 0.1% 0.6%  
287 0% 0.5%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.7%  
201 0.1% 99.6%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.1% 99.5%  
204 0.1% 99.4%  
205 0.1% 99.2%  
206 0.4% 99.2%  
207 0.1% 98.8%  
208 0.3% 98.7%  
209 0.6% 98%  
210 0.4% 98%  
211 0.4% 97%  
212 0.5% 97%  
213 1.4% 97%  
214 0.9% 95%  
215 0.5% 94%  
216 0.3% 94%  
217 0.5% 93%  
218 0.8% 93%  
219 1.3% 92%  
220 0.7% 91%  
221 0.7% 90%  
222 0.9% 89%  
223 1.1% 88%  
224 3% 87%  
225 4% 84%  
226 0.5% 80%  
227 3% 80%  
228 5% 76%  
229 2% 72%  
230 6% 69%  
231 5% 63%  
232 3% 58%  
233 4% 55%  
234 3% 52% Median
235 2% 49%  
236 3% 47%  
237 2% 44%  
238 2% 42%  
239 2% 40%  
240 2% 38%  
241 3% 36%  
242 9% 34%  
243 5% 25%  
244 3% 20%  
245 4% 16%  
246 1.5% 13%  
247 0.9% 11%  
248 2% 10%  
249 0.6% 9%  
250 0.9% 8%  
251 0.6% 7%  
252 1.4% 6%  
253 0.3% 5%  
254 0.4% 5%  
255 0.3% 4%  
256 0.5% 4%  
257 0.2% 4%  
258 0.3% 3%  
259 0.1% 3%  
260 0.2% 3%  
261 0.4% 3%  
262 0.1% 2%  
263 0.2% 2%  
264 0.2% 2%  
265 0.1% 2%  
266 0.3% 2% Last Result
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.3% 1.2%  
269 0.2% 0.9%  
270 0% 0.7%  
271 0.1% 0.7%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0% 0.4%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.1% 99.6%  
199 0.1% 99.5%  
200 0.1% 99.4%  
201 0.1% 99.3%  
202 0.1% 99.2%  
203 0.3% 99.1%  
204 0.2% 98.8%  
205 0.3% 98.6%  
206 0.4% 98%  
207 0.3% 98%  
208 0.6% 98%  
209 1.2% 97%  
210 0.7% 96%  
211 1.1% 95%  
212 0.5% 94%  
213 0.3% 94%  
214 1.0% 93%  
215 1.4% 92%  
216 0.4% 91%  
217 0.4% 90%  
218 0.7% 90%  
219 2% 89%  
220 2% 87%  
221 2% 86%  
222 4% 84%  
223 1.3% 80%  
224 2% 78%  
225 4% 76%  
226 4% 72%  
227 5% 68%  
228 5% 63%  
229 2% 58%  
230 2% 55%  
231 5% 53% Median
232 2% 49%  
233 4% 47%  
234 3% 43%  
235 0.8% 40%  
236 2% 39%  
237 2% 37%  
238 6% 35%  
239 4% 29%  
240 5% 25%  
241 5% 19%  
242 2% 15%  
243 1.1% 13%  
244 3% 12%  
245 0.9% 9%  
246 0.5% 8%  
247 0.2% 8%  
248 1.1% 8%  
249 0.5% 6%  
250 1.1% 6%  
251 0.7% 5%  
252 0.3% 4%  
253 0.3% 4%  
254 0.3% 4%  
255 0.2% 3%  
256 0.3% 3%  
257 0.3% 3%  
258 0.1% 3%  
259 0.2% 2%  
260 0.3% 2%  
261 0.2% 2%  
262 0.1% 2% Last Result
263 0.1% 2%  
264 0.4% 2%  
265 0.3% 1.2%  
266 0.1% 0.9%  
267 0.1% 0.8%  
268 0.1% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0% 0.4%  
272 0% 0.4%  
273 0.1% 0.4%  
274 0% 0.3%  
275 0% 0.2%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations