Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 8–10 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.2% 40.8–43.6% 40.4–44.0% 40.1–44.4% 39.4–45.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 40.2% 38.8–41.6% 38.4–42.0% 38.1–42.3% 37.4–43.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 323 292–331 286–336 279–340 272–344
Labour Party 262 256 244–288 241–295 240–305 232–317
Liberal Democrats 12 17 14–19 11–20 10–21 6–24
Scottish National Party 35 39 21–41 17–45 8–48 3–54
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–2 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0.3% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0% 99.0%  
276 0.5% 99.0%  
277 0.9% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.3% 96%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 2% 96%  
287 0.9% 94%  
288 0% 93%  
289 2% 93%  
290 0.6% 91%  
291 0.6% 91%  
292 0.8% 90%  
293 1.2% 89%  
294 0.6% 88%  
295 0.1% 87%  
296 0.1% 87%  
297 1.0% 87%  
298 7% 86%  
299 0.5% 79%  
300 1.1% 79%  
301 0.1% 78%  
302 0.7% 78%  
303 0.2% 77%  
304 3% 77%  
305 2% 74%  
306 1.0% 72%  
307 1.0% 71%  
308 0.2% 70%  
309 0.1% 70%  
310 0.4% 70%  
311 0.5% 69%  
312 4% 69%  
313 0.2% 64%  
314 0.2% 64%  
315 3% 64%  
316 1.1% 61%  
317 1.0% 60% Last Result
318 0.4% 59%  
319 0.7% 58%  
320 2% 58%  
321 0.2% 56%  
322 5% 56%  
323 20% 51% Median
324 0.2% 32%  
325 0.2% 31%  
326 1.1% 31% Majority
327 2% 30%  
328 0.4% 28%  
329 0.2% 28%  
330 3% 28%  
331 16% 25%  
332 0.1% 9%  
333 0.6% 9%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 0.5% 8%  
336 3% 7%  
337 0.9% 5%  
338 0.3% 4%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.5% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.8% 1.2%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.8% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.1%  
234 0.7% 99.0%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 3% 97%  
242 3% 95%  
243 0.9% 91%  
244 15% 91%  
245 0.7% 75%  
246 0.1% 75%  
247 0% 75%  
248 0.1% 75%  
249 0.3% 74%  
250 0.9% 74%  
251 0.1% 73%  
252 20% 73%  
253 0.2% 53%  
254 0.4% 53%  
255 0.7% 53%  
256 5% 52% Median
257 0.9% 47%  
258 0.9% 46%  
259 4% 45%  
260 2% 42%  
261 0.3% 40%  
262 0.3% 39% Last Result
263 1.3% 39%  
264 0.1% 38%  
265 0.4% 38%  
266 1.2% 37%  
267 0.3% 36%  
268 0.1% 36%  
269 0.1% 36%  
270 0.8% 36%  
271 2% 35%  
272 0.6% 33%  
273 0% 32%  
274 0.6% 32%  
275 1.3% 31%  
276 1.0% 30%  
277 0.5% 29%  
278 7% 29%  
279 0% 21%  
280 5% 21%  
281 3% 16%  
282 0.3% 13%  
283 1.4% 13%  
284 0.1% 12%  
285 0% 12%  
286 0% 12%  
287 0.6% 12%  
288 2% 11%  
289 0.6% 9%  
290 0.2% 9%  
291 1.0% 8%  
292 0.1% 7%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 0.1% 6%  
295 1.2% 6%  
296 0.2% 5%  
297 0.5% 5%  
298 0% 4%  
299 0.9% 4%  
300 0.2% 3%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.4% 3%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0% 2%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0% 1.4%  
311 0.2% 1.4%  
312 0% 1.2%  
313 0% 1.2%  
314 0.4% 1.1%  
315 0% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.4% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.5%  
8 0.2% 99.0%  
9 1.1% 98.8%  
10 0.7% 98%  
11 3% 97%  
12 1.0% 94% Last Result
13 2% 93%  
14 7% 92%  
15 4% 85%  
16 12% 80%  
17 49% 69% Median
18 6% 20%  
19 5% 14%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.9%  
24 0.3% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.6%  
4 0.2% 99.3%  
5 1.2% 99.1%  
6 0.1% 98%  
7 0.1% 98%  
8 0.3% 98%  
9 0.4% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0.3% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0.5% 96%  
14 0.6% 96%  
15 0.2% 95%  
16 0% 95%  
17 0.2% 95%  
18 0% 95%  
19 1.1% 95%  
20 3% 94%  
21 1.4% 91%  
22 0.5% 90%  
23 1.4% 89%  
24 0.9% 88%  
25 0.6% 87%  
26 4% 86%  
27 0.3% 82%  
28 2% 82%  
29 0.7% 81%  
30 0% 80%  
31 0.5% 80%  
32 0.2% 79%  
33 1.1% 79%  
34 2% 78%  
35 2% 76% Last Result
36 0.9% 74%  
37 2% 73%  
38 9% 71%  
39 41% 62% Median
40 8% 21%  
41 4% 13%  
42 2% 9%  
43 1.5% 8%  
44 0.3% 6%  
45 2% 6%  
46 0.8% 4%  
47 0.4% 3%  
48 0.6% 3%  
49 0.7% 2%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.2% 1.1%  
52 0.1% 0.9%  
53 0.2% 0.8%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Median
1 8% 23%  
2 11% 16%  
3 2% 5%  
4 3% 3% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 361 91% 326–371 316–376 309–378 297–382
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 361 91% 326–370 316–375 309–377 296–382
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 340 69% 308–348 302–352 297–355 289–361
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 308 28% 300–339 295–345 291–352 287–359
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 308 26% 299–338 294–344 290–351 286–359
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 323 31% 292–332 287–337 279–341 272–345
Conservative Party 317 323 31% 292–331 286–336 279–340 272–344
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 291 6% 283–323 279–329 276–334 270–342
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 291 6% 283–322 278–328 275–333 270–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 270 2% 261–305 256–315 254–322 249–335
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 270 2% 260–305 255–314 253–322 249–334
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 256 0.2% 244–288 243–295 241–305 232–318
Labour Party 262 256 0.1% 244–288 241–295 240–305 232–317

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0.1% 100%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.4% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.2%  
300 0.2% 99.1%  
301 0.1% 98.9%  
302 0% 98.8%  
303 0% 98.7%  
304 0.3% 98.7%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0.9% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.3% 97%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 1.4% 96%  
317 0.5% 95%  
318 0% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.2% 94%  
321 0.3% 94%  
322 0.2% 94%  
323 1.4% 93%  
324 0.4% 92%  
325 0.2% 92%  
326 2% 91% Majority
327 1.1% 89%  
328 0.6% 88%  
329 0.3% 88%  
330 3% 87%  
331 0.1% 84%  
332 0% 84%  
333 0.4% 84%  
334 1.1% 84%  
335 3% 83%  
336 7% 79%  
337 0.5% 72%  
338 0.5% 72%  
339 0.9% 71%  
340 2% 70%  
341 0.2% 68%  
342 0.2% 68%  
343 0.8% 68%  
344 0.4% 67%  
345 0.3% 66%  
346 2% 66%  
347 0.1% 65%  
348 0.1% 64%  
349 1.5% 64%  
350 1.1% 63%  
351 0.4% 62%  
352 3% 61%  
353 1.4% 59%  
354 2% 57%  
355 0.1% 55%  
356 0% 55% Last Result
357 0.8% 55%  
358 1.0% 54%  
359 0.4% 53%  
360 1.1% 53%  
361 5% 52%  
362 20% 47% Median
363 0.1% 27%  
364 0.3% 27%  
365 0.3% 26%  
366 0.3% 26%  
367 0.2% 26%  
368 0.3% 26%  
369 0.1% 25%  
370 15% 25%  
371 0.8% 10%  
372 2% 9%  
373 1.3% 7%  
374 0.4% 6%  
375 0.3% 5%  
376 0.5% 5%  
377 0.2% 5%  
378 2% 4%  
379 0% 2%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 1.1% 1.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.4% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.4%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.1% 99.1%  
300 0.3% 99.1%  
301 0% 98.8%  
302 0.3% 98.7%  
303 0% 98%  
304 0% 98%  
305 0% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.9% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.2% 97%  
312 0.1% 97%  
313 0.4% 97%  
314 0.1% 96%  
315 0.7% 96%  
316 1.2% 96%  
317 0.2% 94%  
318 0% 94%  
319 0.1% 94%  
320 0.3% 94%  
321 0.2% 94%  
322 1.2% 94%  
323 0.8% 92%  
324 0.5% 92%  
325 0.1% 91%  
326 3% 91% Majority
327 0.1% 88%  
328 0% 87%  
329 0.3% 87%  
330 3% 87%  
331 0.8% 84%  
332 1.3% 83%  
333 0% 82%  
334 0.1% 82%  
335 3% 82%  
336 7% 79%  
337 0.3% 72%  
338 1.4% 71%  
339 0.7% 70%  
340 1.2% 69%  
341 0.5% 68%  
342 0.1% 68%  
343 1.0% 67%  
344 0.4% 66%  
345 1.4% 66%  
346 0.2% 65%  
347 0% 64%  
348 1.1% 64%  
349 2% 63%  
350 0.3% 62%  
351 0.4% 61%  
352 3% 61% Last Result
353 1.1% 58%  
354 2% 57%  
355 0.7% 55%  
356 0.1% 54%  
357 0.4% 54%  
358 2% 54%  
359 0.5% 52%  
360 0.2% 51%  
361 4% 51%  
362 20% 47% Median
363 0.2% 27%  
364 0.2% 26%  
365 0.4% 26%  
366 0.4% 26%  
367 0.2% 25%  
368 0.3% 25%  
369 0% 25%  
370 17% 25%  
371 0.8% 8%  
372 0% 7%  
373 1.3% 7%  
374 0.2% 5%  
375 0.3% 5%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 2% 4%  
378 0.8% 2%  
379 0% 2%  
380 0.1% 2%  
381 0% 1.4%  
382 1.1% 1.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0.1% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.2% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.4% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.1% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 99.0%  
293 0% 98.9%  
294 0.1% 98.9%  
295 0.2% 98.8%  
296 0% 98.7%  
297 2% 98.6%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.3% 96%  
302 1.0% 96%  
303 0.1% 95%  
304 0.4% 94%  
305 0.2% 94%  
306 2% 94%  
307 1.2% 92%  
308 0.6% 90%  
309 1.2% 90%  
310 1.1% 89%  
311 0.3% 87%  
312 0.1% 87%  
313 0% 87%  
314 1.4% 87%  
315 7% 86%  
316 0.5% 79%  
317 0.5% 78%  
318 0% 78%  
319 2% 78%  
320 2% 76%  
321 0.5% 75%  
322 0.8% 74%  
323 3% 73%  
324 0.1% 70%  
325 1.2% 70%  
326 0.3% 69% Majority
327 0.4% 68%  
328 0.8% 68%  
329 0.5% 67% Last Result
330 0% 67%  
331 4% 67%  
332 4% 63%  
333 0.3% 59%  
334 0.2% 59%  
335 0.2% 59%  
336 6% 58%  
337 0.2% 53%  
338 1.5% 53%  
339 0.2% 51%  
340 20% 51% Median
341 0.1% 31%  
342 2% 31%  
343 0.1% 30%  
344 0.3% 29%  
345 2% 29%  
346 1.0% 27%  
347 2% 26%  
348 18% 24%  
349 0.3% 7%  
350 0.1% 6%  
351 0.9% 6%  
352 0.7% 5%  
353 1.0% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.6% 3%  
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.4%  
361 0.8% 1.1%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.7% 99.6%  
288 0.4% 98.8%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.5% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.9% 96%  
295 3% 95%  
296 0.8% 92%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 0.3% 91%  
299 0.1% 91%  
300 16% 91%  
301 3% 75%  
302 0.2% 72%  
303 0.3% 72%  
304 2% 72%  
305 1.2% 70%  
306 0.1% 69%  
307 0.2% 69%  
308 20% 68%  
309 5% 49%  
310 2% 44%  
311 0.1% 42%  
312 0.7% 42% Median
313 0.4% 42% Last Result
314 2% 41%  
315 0.2% 39%  
316 3% 39%  
317 0.2% 36%  
318 0.2% 36%  
319 4% 36%  
320 0.5% 31%  
321 0.4% 31%  
322 0.1% 30%  
323 0.6% 30%  
324 0.9% 30%  
325 0.8% 29%  
326 4% 28% Majority
327 0.4% 24%  
328 0.2% 23%  
329 0.7% 23%  
330 0.1% 22%  
331 1.1% 22%  
332 0.5% 21%  
333 7% 21%  
334 0.8% 14%  
335 0.1% 13%  
336 0% 13%  
337 0.8% 13%  
338 1.4% 12%  
339 0.5% 10%  
340 0.5% 10%  
341 0.6% 9%  
342 2% 9%  
343 0% 7%  
344 0.9% 7%  
345 2% 6%  
346 0.1% 4%  
347 0.3% 4%  
348 0.5% 4%  
349 0.2% 3%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.3% 3%  
352 0.2% 3%  
353 0% 2%  
354 0.9% 2%  
355 0.5% 2%  
356 0% 1.0%  
357 0.1% 1.0%  
358 0.3% 0.9%  
359 0.2% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.6%  
287 0.7% 99.4%  
288 0.6% 98.7%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.8% 98%  
291 0.7% 97%  
292 1.0% 97%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 3% 95%  
295 1.2% 93%  
296 0.6% 91%  
297 0.1% 91%  
298 0.1% 91%  
299 2% 91%  
300 16% 88%  
301 0.8% 73%  
302 1.2% 72%  
303 0.2% 71%  
304 0.6% 70%  
305 1.2% 70%  
306 0.2% 68%  
307 0.8% 68%  
308 20% 68%  
309 4% 48% Last Result
310 1.4% 44%  
311 0.2% 42%  
312 2% 42% Median
313 0.4% 40%  
314 1.2% 40%  
315 0.1% 39%  
316 3% 39%  
317 0.7% 35%  
318 0.2% 35%  
319 4% 35%  
320 0.5% 31%  
321 0.1% 30%  
322 0.4% 30%  
323 1.2% 30%  
324 0.6% 29%  
325 2% 28%  
326 3% 26% Majority
327 0.3% 23%  
328 0.3% 23%  
329 1.4% 23%  
330 0.1% 21%  
331 0.4% 21%  
332 2% 21%  
333 7% 19%  
334 0.6% 13%  
335 0.1% 12%  
336 0.4% 12%  
337 0.9% 12%  
338 0.7% 11%  
339 0.6% 10%  
340 0.1% 9%  
341 0.7% 9%  
342 2% 9%  
343 0% 7%  
344 3% 7%  
345 0.2% 4%  
346 0.2% 4%  
347 0.2% 3%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.3% 3%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.9% 2%  
355 0.1% 1.1%  
356 0.2% 1.0%  
357 0% 0.8%  
358 0.2% 0.8%  
359 0.3% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.3% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 99.0%  
277 0.9% 98.9%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.1% 96%  
287 3% 96%  
288 0% 93%  
289 2% 93%  
290 0.7% 91%  
291 0.1% 91%  
292 0.9% 91%  
293 0.5% 90%  
294 0.8% 89%  
295 0.4% 88%  
296 0.1% 88%  
297 0.6% 88%  
298 7% 87%  
299 1.3% 81%  
300 0.4% 79%  
301 0.2% 79%  
302 1.4% 79%  
303 0.3% 77%  
304 3% 77%  
305 0.3% 74%  
306 2% 74%  
307 1.2% 72%  
308 0.9% 71%  
309 0% 70%  
310 0.1% 70%  
311 0.5% 70%  
312 4% 69%  
313 0.2% 65%  
314 0.7% 65%  
315 3% 65%  
316 1.0% 61%  
317 0.3% 60%  
318 0.3% 60%  
319 2% 60%  
320 2% 58%  
321 0.1% 57% Last Result
322 4% 56%  
323 20% 52% Median
324 0.8% 32%  
325 0.2% 32%  
326 1.1% 31% Majority
327 0.6% 30%  
328 0.2% 30%  
329 1.2% 29%  
330 0.9% 28%  
331 16% 27%  
332 2% 12%  
333 0.1% 9%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 0.4% 9%  
336 0.9% 8%  
337 3% 7%  
338 0.1% 5%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.7% 3%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.6% 2%  
344 0.8% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0.3% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0% 99.0%  
276 0.5% 99.0%  
277 0.9% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.3% 96%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 2% 96%  
287 0.9% 94%  
288 0% 93%  
289 2% 93%  
290 0.6% 91%  
291 0.6% 91%  
292 0.8% 90%  
293 1.2% 89%  
294 0.6% 88%  
295 0.1% 87%  
296 0.1% 87%  
297 1.0% 87%  
298 7% 86%  
299 0.5% 79%  
300 1.1% 79%  
301 0.1% 78%  
302 0.7% 78%  
303 0.2% 77%  
304 3% 77%  
305 2% 74%  
306 1.0% 72%  
307 1.0% 71%  
308 0.2% 70%  
309 0.1% 70%  
310 0.4% 70%  
311 0.5% 69%  
312 4% 69%  
313 0.2% 64%  
314 0.2% 64%  
315 3% 64%  
316 1.1% 61%  
317 1.0% 60% Last Result
318 0.4% 59%  
319 0.7% 58%  
320 2% 58%  
321 0.2% 56%  
322 5% 56%  
323 20% 51% Median
324 0.2% 32%  
325 0.2% 31%  
326 1.1% 31% Majority
327 2% 30%  
328 0.4% 28%  
329 0.2% 28%  
330 3% 28%  
331 16% 25%  
332 0.1% 9%  
333 0.6% 9%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 0.5% 8%  
336 3% 7%  
337 0.9% 5%  
338 0.3% 4%  
339 0.7% 4%  
340 0.5% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.8% 1.2%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.8% 99.7%  
271 0.3% 98.9%  
272 0.1% 98.6%  
273 0% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.6% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.7% 97%  
278 1.3% 96%  
279 0.3% 95%  
280 0.8% 95%  
281 0.1% 94%  
282 0.3% 94%  
283 18% 93%  
284 2% 76%  
285 1.0% 74%  
286 2% 73%  
287 0.3% 71%  
288 0.6% 71%  
289 1.3% 70%  
290 0.1% 69%  
291 20% 69%  
292 0.4% 49%  
293 1.2% 49%  
294 2% 47%  
295 4% 46% Median
296 0.2% 42%  
297 0.2% 41%  
298 0.3% 41%  
299 4% 41%  
300 3% 37%  
301 0.1% 33% Last Result
302 0.5% 33%  
303 0.9% 33%  
304 0.2% 32%  
305 0.3% 32%  
306 1.2% 31%  
307 3% 30%  
308 0.8% 27%  
309 0.5% 26%  
310 1.0% 26%  
311 1.3% 25%  
312 2% 24%  
313 0.1% 22%  
314 0.5% 22%  
315 0.4% 22%  
316 7% 21%  
317 1.4% 14%  
318 0% 13%  
319 0.1% 13%  
320 0.3% 13%  
321 2% 13%  
322 0.9% 11%  
323 0.4% 10%  
324 1.2% 10%  
325 2% 8%  
326 0.2% 6% Majority
327 0.4% 6%  
328 0.2% 5%  
329 0.9% 5%  
330 0.3% 4%  
331 0.4% 4%  
332 0.3% 4%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 2% 3%  
335 0% 1.4%  
336 0.2% 1.3%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 1.1%  
339 0% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.4% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.2% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.9% 99.6%  
271 0.3% 98.7%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 1.4% 98%  
276 0.5% 96%  
277 0.3% 96%  
278 0.7% 96%  
279 0.2% 95%  
280 0.8% 95%  
281 2% 94%  
282 0.4% 92%  
283 18% 91%  
284 1.3% 74%  
285 1.0% 72%  
286 1.0% 71%  
287 0.4% 70%  
288 0.2% 70%  
289 1.1% 70%  
290 0.4% 69%  
291 20% 68%  
292 0.3% 48%  
293 0.8% 48%  
294 2% 47%  
295 4% 45% Median
296 0.2% 41%  
297 1.3% 41% Last Result
298 0.2% 40%  
299 4% 40%  
300 3% 36%  
301 0.8% 33%  
302 0.4% 32%  
303 0.3% 32%  
304 0.3% 32%  
305 0.1% 31%  
306 2% 31%  
307 3% 29%  
308 0.3% 26%  
309 1.2% 26%  
310 0.8% 25%  
311 2% 24%  
312 0.2% 22%  
313 0.6% 22%  
314 0.1% 21%  
315 1.1% 21%  
316 7% 20%  
317 0.4% 13%  
318 0.6% 13%  
319 0.4% 12%  
320 0.4% 12%  
321 1.4% 11%  
322 0.5% 10%  
323 1.3% 10%  
324 0.1% 8%  
325 2% 8%  
326 0% 6% Majority
327 0.6% 6%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.6% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.5% 3%  
332 0% 3%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.9% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0% 1.2%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 1.1%  
339 0.1% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.9%  
341 0% 0.8%  
342 0.4% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 1.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 98.6%  
251 0% 98.5%  
252 0% 98%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 2% 98%  
255 0.6% 96%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 0.2% 95%  
258 1.3% 95%  
259 0% 93%  
260 0.9% 93%  
261 17% 92%  
262 0.1% 75%  
263 0.3% 75%  
264 0.2% 75%  
265 0.4% 74%  
266 0.4% 74%  
267 0.4% 74%  
268 0.6% 73%  
269 20% 73%  
270 4% 53%  
271 0.6% 49%  
272 1.2% 48%  
273 1.3% 47% Median
274 0.4% 46%  
275 0.1% 46%  
276 2% 45%  
277 0.4% 43%  
278 1.1% 43% Last Result
279 3% 42%  
280 0.4% 39%  
281 0.3% 39%  
282 2% 38%  
283 1.1% 37%  
284 0% 36%  
285 0.2% 36%  
286 1.4% 35%  
287 0.4% 34%  
288 1.0% 34%  
289 0.1% 33%  
290 0.9% 32%  
291 0.8% 32%  
292 0.9% 31%  
293 1.2% 30%  
294 0.3% 29%  
295 7% 28%  
296 3% 21%  
297 0.1% 18%  
298 0.3% 18%  
299 1.2% 18%  
300 3% 16%  
301 0.2% 13%  
302 0.3% 13%  
303 0% 13%  
304 0.1% 13%  
305 3% 12%  
306 0.1% 9%  
307 0.5% 9%  
308 1.0% 8%  
309 1.1% 7%  
310 0.2% 6%  
311 0.3% 6%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 0% 6%  
314 0.5% 6%  
315 0.9% 5%  
316 0.8% 4%  
317 0% 4%  
318 0.4% 4%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.9% 3%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0% 2% Majority
327 0% 2%  
328 0% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0% 1.3%  
331 0.3% 1.2%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0.4% 0.6%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 1.1% 99.7%  
250 0.3% 98.6%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0% 98%  
253 2% 98%  
254 0.2% 96%  
255 0.5% 95%  
256 0.3% 95%  
257 0.4% 95%  
258 1.3% 94%  
259 2% 93%  
260 0.7% 91%  
261 15% 90%  
262 0.1% 75%  
263 0.3% 75%  
264 0.2% 74%  
265 0.4% 74%  
266 0.2% 74%  
267 0.3% 74%  
268 0.6% 73%  
269 20% 73%  
270 5% 52%  
271 0.9% 48%  
272 1.3% 47%  
273 0.1% 46% Median
274 0.8% 46% Last Result
275 0% 45%  
276 2% 45%  
277 0.6% 43%  
278 1.4% 43%  
279 3% 41%  
280 0.4% 39%  
281 1.1% 38%  
282 1.5% 37%  
283 0.1% 36%  
284 0.1% 36%  
285 2% 35%  
286 0.3% 34%  
287 0.4% 34%  
288 0.8% 33%  
289 0.2% 32%  
290 0.6% 32%  
291 2% 31%  
292 1.0% 30%  
293 0.3% 29%  
294 0.5% 28%  
295 7% 28%  
296 4% 21%  
297 1.0% 17%  
298 0.2% 16%  
299 0% 16%  
300 3% 16%  
301 0.2% 13%  
302 0.3% 13%  
303 0.6% 12%  
304 1.1% 12%  
305 2% 11%  
306 0.2% 9%  
307 0.6% 8%  
308 1.2% 8%  
309 0.2% 7%  
310 0.3% 6%  
311 0.2% 6%  
312 0.1% 6%  
313 0% 6%  
314 0.8% 6%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.4% 4%  
317 0% 3%  
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.1% 3%  
322 0.9% 3%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0% 1.3%  
329 0% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.2%  
331 0.2% 1.1%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.4% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.7% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.1%  
234 0.5% 99.1%  
235 0.1% 98.6%  
236 0.1% 98.6%  
237 0.4% 98%  
238 0% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.1% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 1.3% 97%  
243 5% 96%  
244 15% 91%  
245 0.6% 76%  
246 0.2% 75%  
247 0% 75%  
248 0.2% 75%  
249 0.1% 74%  
250 0.6% 74%  
251 0.1% 74%  
252 20% 74%  
253 0.1% 54%  
254 0.5% 54%  
255 0.8% 53%  
256 4% 52% Median
257 1.0% 48%  
258 0.8% 47%  
259 3% 47%  
260 2% 43%  
261 0.3% 41%  
262 1.1% 40%  
263 0.3% 39%  
264 0.2% 39%  
265 1.4% 39%  
266 1.3% 37% Last Result
267 0.1% 36%  
268 0.2% 36%  
269 0.1% 36%  
270 0.7% 36%  
271 0.2% 35%  
272 2% 35%  
273 0.7% 33%  
274 0.3% 32%  
275 0.9% 32%  
276 2% 31%  
277 0.7% 30%  
278 7% 29%  
279 0.1% 21%  
280 3% 21%  
281 3% 19%  
282 1.4% 15%  
283 0.2% 14%  
284 2% 13%  
285 0% 12%  
286 0% 12%  
287 0% 12%  
288 2% 12%  
289 0.8% 10%  
290 0.5% 9%  
291 0.3% 8%  
292 0.1% 8%  
293 1.3% 8%  
294 0.3% 7%  
295 2% 6%  
296 0% 5%  
297 0.5% 5%  
298 0.1% 4%  
299 0.5% 4%  
300 0.5% 4%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.5% 3%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0% 2%  
310 0% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0% 1.4%  
313 0.1% 1.3%  
314 0.3% 1.2%  
315 0.1% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.8%  
317 0% 0.6%  
318 0.4% 0.6%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.8% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.1%  
234 0.7% 99.0%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 3% 97%  
242 3% 95%  
243 0.9% 91%  
244 15% 91%  
245 0.7% 75%  
246 0.1% 75%  
247 0% 75%  
248 0.1% 75%  
249 0.3% 74%  
250 0.9% 74%  
251 0.1% 73%  
252 20% 73%  
253 0.2% 53%  
254 0.4% 53%  
255 0.7% 53%  
256 5% 52% Median
257 0.9% 47%  
258 0.9% 46%  
259 4% 45%  
260 2% 42%  
261 0.3% 40%  
262 0.3% 39% Last Result
263 1.3% 39%  
264 0.1% 38%  
265 0.4% 38%  
266 1.2% 37%  
267 0.3% 36%  
268 0.1% 36%  
269 0.1% 36%  
270 0.8% 36%  
271 2% 35%  
272 0.6% 33%  
273 0% 32%  
274 0.6% 32%  
275 1.3% 31%  
276 1.0% 30%  
277 0.5% 29%  
278 7% 29%  
279 0% 21%  
280 5% 21%  
281 3% 16%  
282 0.3% 13%  
283 1.4% 13%  
284 0.1% 12%  
285 0% 12%  
286 0% 12%  
287 0.6% 12%  
288 2% 11%  
289 0.6% 9%  
290 0.2% 9%  
291 1.0% 8%  
292 0.1% 7%  
293 1.1% 7%  
294 0.1% 6%  
295 1.2% 6%  
296 0.2% 5%  
297 0.5% 5%  
298 0% 4%  
299 0.9% 4%  
300 0.2% 3%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.1% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.4% 3%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0% 2%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0% 1.4%  
311 0.2% 1.4%  
312 0% 1.2%  
313 0% 1.2%  
314 0.4% 1.1%  
315 0% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.4% 0.6%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations