Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 11–12 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.3% 40.7–43.9% 40.3–44.3% 39.9–44.7% 39.2–45.5%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.3% 37.8–40.9% 37.3–41.3% 37.0–41.7% 36.2–42.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–10.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Green Party 1.6% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 321 295–342 284–345 276–345 264–354
Labour Party 262 246 230–279 228–291 225–295 225–303
Liberal Democrats 12 15 11–21 8–21 7–21 5–25
Scottish National Party 35 42 29–51 24–53 19–55 9–55
UK Independence Party 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 2–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.3% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.4% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.3%  
266 0% 99.3%  
267 0% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.2%  
269 0% 99.1%  
270 0% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0.2% 99.0%  
273 0% 98.8%  
274 0.1% 98.8%  
275 0.1% 98.7%  
276 1.3% 98.6%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0% 97%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.8% 97%  
281 0.2% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.6% 96%  
284 0.1% 95%  
285 0.5% 95%  
286 0% 95%  
287 0% 95%  
288 0.1% 94%  
289 0.1% 94%  
290 1.2% 94%  
291 0% 93%  
292 0.9% 93%  
293 1.3% 92%  
294 0.5% 91%  
295 0.9% 90%  
296 0% 90%  
297 2% 89%  
298 0.4% 87%  
299 1.2% 87%  
300 0.5% 85%  
301 0% 85%  
302 1.4% 85%  
303 2% 83%  
304 0.5% 82%  
305 0.9% 81%  
306 0.3% 80%  
307 0.2% 80%  
308 0.6% 80%  
309 0.1% 79%  
310 0.6% 79%  
311 1.4% 79%  
312 0.6% 77%  
313 0.4% 77%  
314 3% 76%  
315 2% 73%  
316 0.1% 71%  
317 8% 71% Last Result
318 0.2% 63%  
319 0.2% 63%  
320 13% 63%  
321 0.6% 50% Median
322 1.4% 49%  
323 0.5% 48%  
324 5% 48%  
325 0.2% 43%  
326 0.2% 43% Majority
327 5% 42%  
328 0.5% 38%  
329 0.3% 37%  
330 2% 37%  
331 2% 35%  
332 0.5% 33%  
333 12% 32%  
334 0.6% 20%  
335 0.5% 19%  
336 4% 19%  
337 0% 15%  
338 3% 15%  
339 0.8% 12%  
340 0.1% 11%  
341 0.1% 11%  
342 3% 11%  
343 0.1% 8%  
344 1.1% 8%  
345 5% 7%  
346 0% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.1% 1.5%  
350 0% 1.4%  
351 0.1% 1.3%  
352 0.1% 1.2%  
353 0% 1.1%  
354 1.0% 1.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 2% 99.8%  
226 1.0% 97%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 4% 96%  
229 2% 92%  
230 0.2% 90%  
231 0.3% 90%  
232 0.3% 90%  
233 0.4% 89%  
234 0.2% 89%  
235 1.1% 89%  
236 0.6% 88%  
237 6% 87%  
238 17% 81%  
239 0.9% 64%  
240 3% 63%  
241 0.2% 60%  
242 0.2% 60%  
243 0.2% 60%  
244 4% 59%  
245 6% 56%  
246 0.5% 50% Median
247 1.3% 49%  
248 0.8% 48%  
249 13% 47%  
250 1.4% 34%  
251 1.3% 33%  
252 0.5% 32%  
253 0.7% 31%  
254 0.2% 30%  
255 0.3% 30%  
256 0.9% 30%  
257 0.9% 29%  
258 3% 28%  
259 4% 26%  
260 0.1% 21%  
261 0.3% 21%  
262 2% 21% Last Result
263 0.2% 19%  
264 0.1% 19%  
265 0.6% 19%  
266 2% 18%  
267 0.4% 17%  
268 0.7% 16%  
269 1.5% 16%  
270 0.6% 14%  
271 0.3% 13%  
272 0.9% 13%  
273 0.4% 12%  
274 0.4% 12%  
275 0% 11%  
276 0.4% 11%  
277 0.8% 11%  
278 0.2% 10%  
279 0.3% 10%  
280 0.6% 10%  
281 0.8% 9%  
282 0.4% 8%  
283 0.1% 8%  
284 1.5% 8%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 0.4% 6%  
287 0.3% 6%  
288 0% 5%  
289 0.2% 5%  
290 0% 5%  
291 1.5% 5%  
292 0.9% 4%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0% 3%  
295 0.3% 3%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0% 2%  
301 0% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 1.2% 2%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 0.9% 99.8%  
6 0.8% 98.8%  
7 1.0% 98%  
8 3% 97%  
9 3% 94%  
10 0.4% 91%  
11 1.1% 90%  
12 2% 89% Last Result
13 15% 87%  
14 8% 72%  
15 16% 64% Median
16 8% 48%  
17 4% 41%  
18 23% 36%  
19 1.3% 14%  
20 1.1% 12%  
21 10% 11%  
22 0.3% 2%  
23 0.2% 1.3%  
24 0.4% 1.2%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.2%  
11 0% 99.2%  
12 0.1% 99.2%  
13 0.5% 99.1%  
14 0% 98.7%  
15 0% 98.7%  
16 0% 98.7%  
17 0% 98.7%  
18 0% 98.6%  
19 2% 98.6%  
20 0.7% 97%  
21 0.3% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0.5% 96%  
24 0.3% 95%  
25 0% 95%  
26 1.4% 95%  
27 0% 93%  
28 0.1% 93%  
29 4% 93%  
30 2% 89%  
31 4% 87%  
32 0% 84%  
33 0.2% 84%  
34 0% 83%  
35 0% 83% Last Result
36 2% 83%  
37 0.4% 81%  
38 3% 81%  
39 0.7% 77%  
40 18% 77%  
41 7% 59%  
42 5% 51% Median
43 13% 46%  
44 2% 34%  
45 6% 32%  
46 2% 26%  
47 0.4% 24%  
48 8% 24%  
49 1.4% 15%  
50 0.8% 14%  
51 4% 13%  
52 0.6% 9%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.1% 0.4%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 76% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 24%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 2% 98%  
2 15% 96%  
3 23% 81%  
4 35% 58% Last Result, Median
5 22% 23%  
6 0.3% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 365 94% 337–386 324–389 319–389 312–394
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 362 94% 333–383 322–385 314–385 308–390
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 338 79% 309–359 299–360 295–361 281–363
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 310 19% 289–336 286–346 286–355 277–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 307 17% 284–333 282–343 281–352 273–363
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 324 48% 298–347 288–349 279–350 268–358
Conservative Party 317 321 43% 295–342 284–345 276–345 264–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 292 9% 272–321 271–332 270–336 268–350
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 289 6% 268–316 266–327 265–332 264–346
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 269 0.3% 248–298 246–309 246–316 241–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 266 0.2% 245–294 242–307 242–312 236–319
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 248 0% 235–283 232–293 230–299 227–307
Labour Party 262 246 0% 230–279 228–291 225–295 225–303

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.6% 99.7%  
313 0.7% 99.1%  
314 0% 98%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.3% 98%  
318 0% 98%  
319 0.1% 98%  
320 0% 97%  
321 0% 97%  
322 0.1% 97%  
323 0.8% 97%  
324 2% 96%  
325 0.7% 95%  
326 0% 94% Majority
327 0.1% 94%  
328 0.1% 94%  
329 1.5% 94%  
330 0.9% 93%  
331 0.5% 92%  
332 0% 91%  
333 0.4% 91%  
334 0.2% 91%  
335 0.3% 91%  
336 0.1% 90%  
337 0.2% 90%  
338 0.4% 90%  
339 0.1% 90%  
340 0.6% 89%  
341 0% 89%  
342 0.1% 89%  
343 0.3% 89%  
344 1.0% 88%  
345 0.3% 88%  
346 0.9% 87%  
347 0.2% 86%  
348 1.5% 86%  
349 1.1% 85%  
350 2% 84%  
351 0.1% 82%  
352 1.0% 82%  
353 0.2% 81%  
354 2% 80%  
355 0.2% 78%  
356 0.4% 78% Last Result
357 5% 77%  
358 1.2% 72%  
359 0.1% 71%  
360 1.0% 71%  
361 1.0% 70%  
362 0.1% 69%  
363 13% 69%  
364 0.6% 56%  
365 6% 55%  
366 0.3% 49%  
367 1.5% 49% Median
368 1.1% 48%  
369 4% 46%  
370 0% 43%  
371 1.0% 43%  
372 3% 42%  
373 0.2% 39%  
374 0.3% 39%  
375 2% 38%  
376 0.2% 36%  
377 0.2% 36%  
378 2% 36%  
379 5% 34%  
380 12% 28%  
381 0.3% 16%  
382 0.4% 16%  
383 3% 15%  
384 0.1% 13%  
385 0.6% 12%  
386 2% 12%  
387 1.1% 10%  
388 3% 9%  
389 4% 6%  
390 0.3% 1.4%  
391 0.3% 1.1%  
392 0% 0.8%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.2% 0.5%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0.1% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.7%  
308 0.5% 99.7%  
309 0.7% 99.1%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.4% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0% 97%  
316 0% 97%  
317 0% 97%  
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0% 97%  
320 0.9% 97%  
321 0.1% 96%  
322 2% 96%  
323 0.1% 94%  
324 0% 94%  
325 0% 94%  
326 0.6% 94% Majority
327 2% 93%  
328 0% 91%  
329 0% 91%  
330 0.3% 91%  
331 0.6% 91%  
332 0.2% 90%  
333 0.2% 90%  
334 0.3% 90%  
335 0.6% 90%  
336 0.1% 89%  
337 0% 89%  
338 0.3% 89%  
339 0.3% 89%  
340 0.3% 88%  
341 0.5% 88%  
342 0.5% 87%  
343 2% 87%  
344 0.3% 85%  
345 1.0% 85%  
346 0.2% 84%  
347 0.4% 84%  
348 2% 83%  
349 1.3% 82%  
350 2% 80%  
351 0.2% 78%  
352 3% 78% Last Result
353 4% 75%  
354 0% 71%  
355 0.1% 71%  
356 0.7% 71%  
357 0.3% 70%  
358 0.1% 70%  
359 2% 70%  
360 13% 68%  
361 0.3% 55%  
362 6% 55%  
363 0.4% 49% Median
364 0.6% 49%  
365 0.1% 48%  
366 2% 48%  
367 3% 46%  
368 1.3% 43%  
369 0.5% 42%  
370 4% 41%  
371 0.2% 37%  
372 0.1% 37%  
373 2% 36%  
374 0.4% 34%  
375 4% 34%  
376 12% 30%  
377 2% 17%  
378 0.2% 15%  
379 3% 15%  
380 0.1% 12%  
381 2% 12%  
382 0.3% 10%  
383 4% 10%  
384 0.1% 6%  
385 4% 6%  
386 1.0% 2%  
387 0% 1.1%  
388 0.5% 1.1%  
389 0% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.6%  
391 0% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.4% 99.9%  
281 0.3% 99.5%  
282 0% 99.2%  
283 0% 99.2%  
284 0% 99.2%  
285 0% 99.2%  
286 0% 99.1%  
287 0% 99.1%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 0.1% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 98.8%  
291 0.1% 98.7%  
292 0.9% 98.6%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0% 98%  
295 1.0% 98%  
296 0.3% 97%  
297 0.5% 96%  
298 0.1% 96%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 0.2% 95%  
301 0% 95%  
302 0.8% 95%  
303 0% 94%  
304 1.5% 94%  
305 1.4% 92%  
306 0.3% 91%  
307 0% 91%  
308 0.1% 91%  
309 0.5% 90%  
310 0.1% 90%  
311 1.0% 90%  
312 0.7% 89%  
313 0.3% 88%  
314 0.1% 88%  
315 2% 88%  
316 0.1% 85%  
317 2% 85%  
318 0.4% 83%  
319 2% 83%  
320 0.3% 81%  
321 0.2% 81%  
322 0.5% 81%  
323 0.1% 80%  
324 1.0% 80%  
325 0.4% 79%  
326 0.8% 79% Majority
327 0.2% 78%  
328 2% 78%  
329 4% 76% Last Result
330 0.9% 72%  
331 2% 72%  
332 0.3% 70%  
333 0.6% 69%  
334 0.1% 69%  
335 2% 69%  
336 0.4% 67% Median
337 0.7% 67%  
338 20% 66%  
339 2% 46%  
340 0.1% 43%  
341 0.7% 43%  
342 4% 42%  
343 2% 39%  
344 0.4% 37%  
345 0.2% 36%  
346 18% 36%  
347 0.3% 19%  
348 0.7% 18%  
349 0.1% 18%  
350 0.2% 17%  
351 2% 17%  
352 0.1% 16%  
353 0.2% 16%  
354 4% 15%  
355 0.3% 12%  
356 0.7% 12%  
357 0.3% 11%  
358 0.3% 10%  
359 4% 10%  
360 3% 7%  
361 2% 4%  
362 0.1% 1.5%  
363 1.1% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 1.0% 99.9%  
278 0% 98.9%  
279 0.1% 98.9%  
280 0.1% 98.8%  
281 0% 98.7%  
282 0.1% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.5%  
284 0% 98%  
285 0% 98%  
286 5% 98%  
287 1.1% 93%  
288 0.2% 92%  
289 3% 92%  
290 0.1% 89%  
291 0.1% 89%  
292 1.0% 89%  
293 3% 88%  
294 0.2% 85%  
295 4% 85%  
296 0.5% 81%  
297 0.5% 81%  
298 13% 80%  
299 2% 67%  
300 0.2% 65%  
301 2% 65%  
302 0.4% 63%  
303 0.4% 63%  
304 5% 62%  
305 0.2% 57%  
306 3% 57%  
307 2% 55% Median
308 0.5% 52%  
309 1.5% 52%  
310 13% 50%  
311 0.1% 37%  
312 0.2% 37%  
313 0.3% 37% Last Result
314 8% 37%  
315 0.8% 29%  
316 1.1% 28%  
317 3% 27%  
318 0.8% 24%  
319 0.6% 23%  
320 1.1% 22%  
321 0.6% 21%  
322 0.6% 21%  
323 0% 20%  
324 0.2% 20%  
325 0.6% 20%  
326 0.6% 19% Majority
327 0.7% 19%  
328 2% 18%  
329 1.3% 16%  
330 0.3% 15%  
331 0.4% 15%  
332 1.4% 15%  
333 0.9% 13%  
334 2% 12%  
335 0% 10%  
336 1.0% 10%  
337 0.3% 9%  
338 2% 9%  
339 0.5% 7%  
340 0% 7%  
341 1.2% 7%  
342 0.2% 6%  
343 0.1% 6%  
344 0% 6%  
345 0% 5%  
346 0.5% 5%  
347 0.1% 5%  
348 0.6% 5%  
349 0% 4%  
350 0.3% 4%  
351 0.7% 4%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0% 3%  
354 0.1% 3%  
355 1.3% 3%  
356 0.1% 1.4%  
357 0.1% 1.3%  
358 0% 1.2%  
359 0.2% 1.2%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0% 0.9%  
362 0% 0.9%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0% 0.8%  
365 0% 0.8%  
366 0% 0.7%  
367 0.4% 0.7%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0.3% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 1.0% 99.8%  
274 0% 98.9%  
275 0.1% 98.9%  
276 0% 98.8%  
277 0.1% 98.7%  
278 0.1% 98.7%  
279 0.1% 98.6%  
280 0% 98%  
281 2% 98%  
282 4% 97%  
283 0% 93%  
284 4% 93%  
285 0.1% 89%  
286 0.2% 89%  
287 0.1% 89%  
288 0.1% 89%  
289 3% 89%  
290 0.8% 86%  
291 0.7% 85%  
292 0.4% 84%  
293 4% 84%  
294 14% 80%  
295 0.3% 66%  
296 0.6% 65%  
297 0.2% 65%  
298 0.2% 65%  
299 2% 64%  
300 4% 63%  
301 0.3% 59%  
302 3% 58%  
303 0% 55% Median
304 2% 55%  
305 2% 53%  
306 0.4% 51%  
307 14% 51%  
308 0.3% 37%  
309 2% 37% Last Result
310 1.2% 35%  
311 6% 34%  
312 3% 28%  
313 0.4% 25%  
314 0.6% 24%  
315 2% 24%  
316 0.4% 22%  
317 0.9% 22%  
318 0.2% 21%  
319 0.1% 20%  
320 0.3% 20%  
321 0.4% 20%  
322 0.2% 20%  
323 0.5% 19%  
324 0.4% 19%  
325 2% 19%  
326 2% 17% Majority
327 0.4% 15%  
328 1.1% 15%  
329 1.4% 13%  
330 0.1% 12%  
331 0.2% 12%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.0% 10%  
334 0.5% 9%  
335 0.4% 9%  
336 2% 8%  
337 0.6% 6%  
338 0% 6%  
339 0.1% 6%  
340 0% 6%  
341 0.5% 6%  
342 0% 5%  
343 0.1% 5%  
344 0.1% 5%  
345 0.8% 5%  
346 0% 4%  
347 0.7% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.3% 3%  
350 0.1% 3%  
351 0% 3%  
352 1.4% 3%  
353 0.1% 1.3%  
354 0.1% 1.2%  
355 0% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 1.1%  
357 0% 1.0%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.1% 0.9%  
360 0% 0.8%  
361 0% 0.8%  
362 0% 0.8%  
363 0.4% 0.8%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.3% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.3% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0.4% 99.6%  
269 0% 99.2%  
270 0% 99.2%  
271 0% 99.2%  
272 0.1% 99.2%  
273 0.1% 99.1%  
274 0% 99.0%  
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0% 98.9%  
277 0.1% 98.9%  
278 0.1% 98.8%  
279 1.4% 98.7%  
280 0% 97%  
281 0.1% 97%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.8% 96%  
287 0% 95%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 0% 95%  
290 0.5% 95%  
291 0% 94%  
292 0.1% 94%  
293 0% 94%  
294 0.5% 94%  
295 2% 94%  
296 0.1% 91%  
297 0.5% 91%  
298 1.0% 91%  
299 2% 90%  
300 0.1% 88%  
301 1.0% 88%  
302 0.5% 87%  
303 1.4% 87%  
304 0.2% 85%  
305 2% 85%  
306 2% 83%  
307 0.9% 81%  
308 0.1% 81%  
309 0.5% 80%  
310 0.1% 80%  
311 0.2% 80%  
312 0.1% 80%  
313 0.5% 80%  
314 0.6% 79%  
315 0.4% 78%  
316 2% 78%  
317 0.6% 76%  
318 0.1% 75%  
319 3% 75%  
320 6% 72%  
321 0.4% 66% Last Result
322 2% 65%  
323 13% 63%  
324 1.2% 50%  
325 0.5% 49% Median
326 2% 48% Majority
327 2% 47%  
328 3% 45%  
329 0.8% 42%  
330 0.3% 42%  
331 4% 41%  
332 2% 37%  
333 0.2% 36%  
334 0.6% 35%  
335 0.2% 35%  
336 3% 35%  
337 12% 32%  
338 4% 20%  
339 0.6% 16%  
340 0.6% 16%  
341 0.9% 15%  
342 3% 14%  
343 0.1% 11%  
344 0.2% 11%  
345 0.1% 11%  
346 0.1% 11%  
347 4% 11%  
348 0% 7%  
349 4% 7%  
350 2% 3%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0.1% 2%  
353 0.1% 1.4%  
354 0.1% 1.3%  
355 0% 1.3%  
356 0.1% 1.2%  
357 0% 1.1%  
358 1.0% 1.1%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0.1% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.3% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.4% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.3%  
266 0% 99.3%  
267 0% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.2%  
269 0% 99.1%  
270 0% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0.2% 99.0%  
273 0% 98.8%  
274 0.1% 98.8%  
275 0.1% 98.7%  
276 1.3% 98.6%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0% 97%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.8% 97%  
281 0.2% 96%  
282 0% 96%  
283 0.6% 96%  
284 0.1% 95%  
285 0.5% 95%  
286 0% 95%  
287 0% 95%  
288 0.1% 94%  
289 0.1% 94%  
290 1.2% 94%  
291 0% 93%  
292 0.9% 93%  
293 1.3% 92%  
294 0.5% 91%  
295 0.9% 90%  
296 0% 90%  
297 2% 89%  
298 0.4% 87%  
299 1.2% 87%  
300 0.5% 85%  
301 0% 85%  
302 1.4% 85%  
303 2% 83%  
304 0.5% 82%  
305 0.9% 81%  
306 0.3% 80%  
307 0.2% 80%  
308 0.6% 80%  
309 0.1% 79%  
310 0.6% 79%  
311 1.4% 79%  
312 0.6% 77%  
313 0.4% 77%  
314 3% 76%  
315 2% 73%  
316 0.1% 71%  
317 8% 71% Last Result
318 0.2% 63%  
319 0.2% 63%  
320 13% 63%  
321 0.6% 50% Median
322 1.4% 49%  
323 0.5% 48%  
324 5% 48%  
325 0.2% 43%  
326 0.2% 43% Majority
327 5% 42%  
328 0.5% 38%  
329 0.3% 37%  
330 2% 37%  
331 2% 35%  
332 0.5% 33%  
333 12% 32%  
334 0.6% 20%  
335 0.5% 19%  
336 4% 19%  
337 0% 15%  
338 3% 15%  
339 0.8% 12%  
340 0.1% 11%  
341 0.1% 11%  
342 3% 11%  
343 0.1% 8%  
344 1.1% 8%  
345 5% 7%  
346 0% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.1% 1.5%  
350 0% 1.4%  
351 0.1% 1.3%  
352 0.1% 1.2%  
353 0% 1.1%  
354 1.0% 1.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 1.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 98.7%  
270 2% 98.5%  
271 3% 96%  
272 3% 93%  
273 0.5% 90%  
274 0.1% 89%  
275 0.7% 89%  
276 0.3% 88%  
277 4% 88%  
278 0.2% 85%  
279 0.1% 84%  
280 2% 84%  
281 0.1% 83%  
282 0.2% 83%  
283 0.7% 82%  
284 3% 82%  
285 15% 79%  
286 0.2% 64%  
287 0.3% 64%  
288 2% 63%  
289 4% 61%  
290 0.7% 58%  
291 3% 57%  
292 13% 54% Median
293 7% 41%  
294 0.6% 34%  
295 0.5% 33%  
296 2% 33%  
297 0.3% 31%  
298 0.5% 31%  
299 0.3% 30%  
300 2% 30%  
301 1.4% 28% Last Result
302 3% 27%  
303 2% 24%  
304 0.8% 22%  
305 0.3% 21%  
306 0.3% 21%  
307 0.9% 21%  
308 0.1% 20%  
309 0.5% 20%  
310 0.2% 19%  
311 0.3% 19%  
312 2% 19%  
313 0.3% 17%  
314 2% 17%  
315 0.3% 15%  
316 2% 14%  
317 0.1% 12%  
318 1.0% 12%  
319 0.7% 11%  
320 0.4% 11%  
321 0.2% 10%  
322 0.4% 10%  
323 0.1% 10%  
324 0% 9%  
325 0.2% 9%  
326 1.4% 9% Majority
327 1.4% 8%  
328 0% 6%  
329 0.8% 6%  
330 0% 5%  
331 0.2% 5%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 0.1% 4%  
334 0.5% 4%  
335 0.3% 4%  
336 1.0% 3%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.9% 2%  
340 0.1% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 1.3%  
342 0.1% 1.2%  
343 0.1% 1.0%  
344 0% 0.9%  
345 0% 0.9%  
346 0.1% 0.9%  
347 0% 0.8%  
348 0% 0.8%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0.3% 0.8%  
351 0.4% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 1.2% 99.7%  
265 2% 98.6%  
266 2% 97%  
267 0.2% 94%  
268 4% 94%  
269 0.1% 90%  
270 0.1% 90%  
271 0.2% 90%  
272 0.4% 89%  
273 1.0% 89%  
274 0.4% 88%  
275 3% 88%  
276 0.2% 84%  
277 0.1% 84%  
278 2% 84%  
279 3% 82%  
280 0.2% 79%  
281 15% 79%  
282 0.4% 64%  
283 0.8% 64%  
284 0.4% 63%  
285 4% 62%  
286 0.1% 58%  
287 3% 58%  
288 1.3% 55% Median
289 12% 54%  
290 6% 42%  
291 4% 35%  
292 0.5% 32%  
293 0.5% 31%  
294 0.3% 31%  
295 0.1% 30%  
296 0.9% 30%  
297 3% 29% Last Result
298 3% 26%  
299 0.8% 23%  
300 0.6% 23%  
301 0.1% 22%  
302 1.2% 22%  
303 0.7% 21%  
304 0.1% 20%  
305 0.6% 20%  
306 0% 19%  
307 0.5% 19%  
308 0% 19%  
309 0.2% 19%  
310 4% 19%  
311 0.3% 15%  
312 0.7% 15%  
313 0.2% 14%  
314 3% 14%  
315 0.4% 11%  
316 0.8% 11%  
317 0.4% 10%  
318 0% 10%  
319 0.1% 10%  
320 0.1% 9%  
321 0% 9%  
322 0.8% 9%  
323 0% 8%  
324 2% 8%  
325 0% 6%  
326 0.9% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 5%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0% 4%  
330 0.2% 4%  
331 0.6% 4%  
332 1.0% 3%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0% 2%  
335 0% 2%  
336 1.0% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0.1% 1.0%  
340 0% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.8%  
346 0.3% 0.8%  
347 0.4% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.5%  
242 0% 99.4%  
243 0.5% 99.4%  
244 0% 98.9%  
245 1.1% 98.9%  
246 4% 98%  
247 0.4% 94%  
248 3% 93%  
249 0.3% 90%  
250 2% 90%  
251 0.1% 88%  
252 3% 88%  
253 0.1% 85%  
254 2% 85%  
255 12% 83%  
256 4% 70%  
257 3% 66%  
258 0.2% 64%  
259 0.2% 64%  
260 0.1% 63%  
261 4% 63%  
262 0.4% 59%  
263 1.2% 58%  
264 4% 57%  
265 1.2% 53% Median
266 0.3% 52%  
267 0.2% 51%  
268 0.3% 51%  
269 6% 51%  
270 13% 45%  
271 0.4% 32%  
272 1.4% 32%  
273 0% 30%  
274 0.3% 30%  
275 0.8% 30%  
276 0% 29%  
277 3% 29%  
278 1.1% 26% Last Result
279 3% 25%  
280 0.2% 22%  
281 3% 22%  
282 0.8% 19%  
283 2% 18%  
284 0.2% 17%  
285 0.9% 16%  
286 0.3% 15%  
287 0.8% 15%  
288 1.2% 14%  
289 0.5% 13%  
290 0.5% 13%  
291 0.3% 12%  
292 0.6% 12%  
293 0% 11%  
294 0% 11%  
295 0.1% 11%  
296 0.6% 11%  
297 0.3% 10%  
298 0.1% 10%  
299 0.2% 10%  
300 0.7% 10%  
301 0.2% 9%  
302 0% 9%  
303 0% 9%  
304 2% 9%  
305 0.5% 7%  
306 0% 6%  
307 0% 6%  
308 0.1% 6%  
309 2% 6%  
310 0.1% 4%  
311 0.9% 4%  
312 0% 3%  
313 0.1% 3%  
314 0% 3%  
315 0% 3%  
316 0% 3%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.7% 2%  
323 0.5% 0.9%  
324 0% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0.1% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0% 99.7%  
236 0.2% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.2% 99.4%  
239 0% 99.2%  
240 0.3% 99.2%  
241 0.4% 98.9%  
242 4% 98.6%  
243 3% 94%  
244 1.1% 91%  
245 2% 90%  
246 0.2% 88%  
247 0.1% 88%  
248 3% 87%  
249 0.3% 85%  
250 0.3% 84%  
251 12% 84%  
252 8% 72%  
253 0.1% 64%  
254 0.2% 64%  
255 0.3% 64%  
256 2% 63%  
257 0.2% 62%  
258 0.2% 61%  
259 4% 61%  
260 0.1% 57%  
261 0.3% 57% Median
262 4% 57%  
263 1.2% 53%  
264 1.5% 52%  
265 0.3% 51%  
266 6% 51%  
267 13% 45%  
268 0.3% 32%  
269 0.1% 31%  
270 1.3% 31%  
271 0.7% 30%  
272 0.4% 29%  
273 3% 29%  
274 3% 26% Last Result
275 0.3% 22%  
276 0.4% 22%  
277 2% 22%  
278 0.1% 19%  
279 1.0% 19%  
280 0.2% 18%  
281 3% 18%  
282 0% 15%  
283 2% 15%  
284 0.4% 14%  
285 0.5% 13%  
286 0.3% 13%  
287 1.2% 12%  
288 0% 11%  
289 0.1% 11%  
290 0% 11%  
291 0.6% 11%  
292 0.1% 11%  
293 0.3% 10%  
294 0.2% 10%  
295 0.2% 10%  
296 0.2% 10%  
297 0.2% 9%  
298 0.4% 9%  
299 0% 9%  
300 0.5% 9%  
301 0.9% 8%  
302 1.5% 7%  
303 0.1% 6%  
304 0.1% 6%  
305 0% 6%  
306 0.7% 6%  
307 2% 5%  
308 0.8% 4%  
309 0.1% 3%  
310 0.1% 3%  
311 0% 3%  
312 0.1% 3%  
313 0% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0.7% 2%  
319 0.6% 0.9%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.3% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 1.0% 99.4%  
230 2% 98%  
231 0.1% 96%  
232 4% 96%  
233 0.1% 92%  
234 2% 92%  
235 0.3% 90%  
236 0.4% 90%  
237 0.4% 89%  
238 0.3% 89%  
239 1.2% 89%  
240 3% 87%  
241 4% 84%  
242 15% 80%  
243 2% 65%  
244 3% 63%  
245 0.4% 60%  
246 4% 60%  
247 1.2% 56%  
248 6% 55%  
249 0% 49%  
250 0.5% 49% Median
251 0.4% 48%  
252 15% 48%  
253 0.9% 33%  
254 0.2% 32%  
255 0.9% 32%  
256 0.6% 31%  
257 0.2% 30%  
258 0% 30%  
259 0.3% 30%  
260 0.3% 30%  
261 2% 30%  
262 2% 28%  
263 1.0% 26%  
264 4% 25%  
265 0.2% 21%  
266 2% 21% Last Result
267 0.1% 19%  
268 0.4% 19%  
269 0.4% 19%  
270 1.3% 18%  
271 2% 17%  
272 0% 14%  
273 0.6% 14%  
274 0.1% 14%  
275 1.4% 14%  
276 0.1% 12%  
277 0.1% 12%  
278 0.6% 12%  
279 0.4% 11%  
280 0.2% 11%  
281 0.3% 11%  
282 0.6% 11%  
283 1.1% 10%  
284 0.2% 9%  
285 0.1% 9%  
286 2% 9%  
287 0% 7%  
288 0.6% 7%  
289 0% 6%  
290 0.1% 6%  
291 0.6% 6%  
292 0.2% 5%  
293 1.4% 5%  
294 0% 4%  
295 0.9% 4%  
296 0.1% 3%  
297 0% 3%  
298 0.1% 3%  
299 0.3% 3%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 1.3% 2%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 2% 99.8%  
226 1.0% 97%  
227 0.4% 96%  
228 4% 96%  
229 2% 92%  
230 0.2% 90%  
231 0.3% 90%  
232 0.3% 90%  
233 0.4% 89%  
234 0.2% 89%  
235 1.1% 89%  
236 0.6% 88%  
237 6% 87%  
238 17% 81%  
239 0.9% 64%  
240 3% 63%  
241 0.2% 60%  
242 0.2% 60%  
243 0.2% 60%  
244 4% 59%  
245 6% 56%  
246 0.5% 50% Median
247 1.3% 49%  
248 0.8% 48%  
249 13% 47%  
250 1.4% 34%  
251 1.3% 33%  
252 0.5% 32%  
253 0.7% 31%  
254 0.2% 30%  
255 0.3% 30%  
256 0.9% 30%  
257 0.9% 29%  
258 3% 28%  
259 4% 26%  
260 0.1% 21%  
261 0.3% 21%  
262 2% 21% Last Result
263 0.2% 19%  
264 0.1% 19%  
265 0.6% 19%  
266 2% 18%  
267 0.4% 17%  
268 0.7% 16%  
269 1.5% 16%  
270 0.6% 14%  
271 0.3% 13%  
272 0.9% 13%  
273 0.4% 12%  
274 0.4% 12%  
275 0% 11%  
276 0.4% 11%  
277 0.8% 11%  
278 0.2% 10%  
279 0.3% 10%  
280 0.6% 10%  
281 0.8% 9%  
282 0.4% 8%  
283 0.1% 8%  
284 1.5% 8%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 0.4% 6%  
287 0.3% 6%  
288 0% 5%  
289 0.2% 5%  
290 0% 5%  
291 1.5% 5%  
292 0.9% 4%  
293 0.1% 3%  
294 0% 3%  
295 0.3% 3%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0% 2%  
301 0% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 1.2% 2%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.3%  
306 0% 0.3%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0.1% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations