Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 18–19 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.6% 40.0–43.2% 39.6–43.6% 39.2–44.0% 38.5–44.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.6% 38.0–41.2% 37.6–41.6% 37.2–42.0% 36.5–42.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.3%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 309 279–325 273–332 266–336 261–344
Labour Party 262 260 238–285 237–293 235–298 226–313
Liberal Democrats 12 20 14–24 14–25 14–26 11–28
Scottish National Party 35 41 27–51 22–52 17–52 7–55
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 1.3% 99.6%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 0% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 1.1% 98%  
267 0.1% 97%  
268 0.1% 97%  
269 0.1% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 1.2% 96%  
272 0.1% 95%  
273 0.3% 95%  
274 0.4% 95%  
275 0.5% 94%  
276 3% 94%  
277 0.5% 91%  
278 0.2% 90%  
279 0.3% 90%  
280 2% 90%  
281 0.7% 88%  
282 0.6% 87%  
283 0.5% 86%  
284 0.1% 86%  
285 0.2% 86%  
286 0.6% 86%  
287 0.6% 85%  
288 0.9% 84%  
289 0.3% 83%  
290 2% 83%  
291 1.4% 82%  
292 0.1% 80%  
293 0.6% 80%  
294 1.5% 79%  
295 2% 78%  
296 0.6% 76%  
297 0.9% 75%  
298 0.2% 74%  
299 13% 74%  
300 0.4% 61%  
301 0.2% 60%  
302 0.4% 60%  
303 0.2% 60%  
304 0.2% 59%  
305 2% 59%  
306 5% 58%  
307 0.3% 52%  
308 0.6% 52%  
309 2% 52% Median
310 0.5% 50%  
311 0.9% 49%  
312 1.2% 48%  
313 7% 47%  
314 6% 40%  
315 0.5% 34%  
316 0.3% 34%  
317 1.4% 33% Last Result
318 0.5% 32%  
319 4% 32%  
320 5% 28%  
321 4% 23%  
322 5% 19%  
323 0.6% 14%  
324 0.8% 14%  
325 3% 13%  
326 1.0% 9% Majority
327 0.6% 9%  
328 1.0% 8%  
329 0.2% 7%  
330 1.1% 7%  
331 0.4% 6%  
332 0.7% 5%  
333 0.4% 5%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.9% 3%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0% 0.8%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0.1% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.3% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.4%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.4% 99.1%  
230 0.4% 98.8%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0% 98%  
233 0.1% 98%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.8% 98%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 3% 96%  
238 5% 94%  
239 3% 89%  
240 1.2% 87%  
241 0.3% 85%  
242 1.3% 85%  
243 2% 84%  
244 0.5% 82%  
245 0.3% 82%  
246 2% 81%  
247 2% 80%  
248 1.0% 77%  
249 0.5% 76%  
250 5% 76%  
251 5% 70%  
252 3% 66%  
253 0.7% 63%  
254 0.4% 62%  
255 2% 62%  
256 0.8% 59%  
257 2% 58%  
258 4% 56%  
259 0.8% 52%  
260 2% 51% Median
261 0.6% 50%  
262 0.2% 49% Last Result
263 0.6% 49%  
264 0.2% 48%  
265 0.3% 48%  
266 0.4% 48%  
267 5% 47%  
268 5% 42%  
269 0.9% 37%  
270 1.2% 37%  
271 0.5% 35%  
272 0.2% 35%  
273 14% 35%  
274 0.4% 20%  
275 1.1% 20%  
276 0.2% 19%  
277 0.7% 19%  
278 0.2% 18%  
279 0.6% 18%  
280 2% 17%  
281 3% 15%  
282 0.7% 12%  
283 0.6% 12%  
284 0.2% 11%  
285 1.1% 11%  
286 0.5% 10%  
287 0.5% 9%  
288 0.8% 9%  
289 0.3% 8%  
290 0.6% 8%  
291 0% 7%  
292 1.1% 7%  
293 0.8% 6%  
294 0.2% 5%  
295 0.3% 5%  
296 1.3% 4%  
297 0.3% 3%  
298 0.4% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0% 2%  
301 0% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0% 2%  
304 0.9% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.2%  
306 0% 1.0%  
307 0.1% 1.0%  
308 0.1% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.2% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.8%  
11 0.3% 99.7%  
12 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
13 0.7% 98.6%  
14 13% 98%  
15 4% 85%  
16 6% 80%  
17 6% 74%  
18 2% 68%  
19 10% 66%  
20 17% 56% Median
21 10% 39%  
22 6% 29%  
23 7% 23%  
24 9% 16%  
25 3% 8%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.4% 2%  
28 1.0% 1.1%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.3% 99.8%  
8 0.1% 99.5%  
9 0.3% 99.3%  
10 0% 99.0%  
11 0% 99.0%  
12 0% 99.0%  
13 1.0% 99.0%  
14 0.3% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0.1% 98%  
17 0.9% 98%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0.6% 97%  
20 0.5% 96%  
21 0.3% 96%  
22 0.5% 95%  
23 2% 95%  
24 0.2% 93%  
25 0.1% 93%  
26 0.9% 93%  
27 4% 92%  
28 0.5% 88%  
29 0.3% 87%  
30 2% 87%  
31 0% 85%  
32 0.3% 85%  
33 0.2% 85%  
34 0.1% 84%  
35 20% 84% Last Result
36 0.7% 64%  
37 0.4% 64%  
38 2% 63%  
39 7% 62%  
40 3% 55%  
41 9% 51% Median
42 5% 43%  
43 1.0% 38%  
44 0.9% 37%  
45 6% 36%  
46 3% 30%  
47 8% 27%  
48 5% 19%  
49 3% 14%  
50 0.9% 11%  
51 5% 11%  
52 4% 6%  
53 0.7% 2%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 2% 93%  
2 3% 91%  
3 18% 89%  
4 57% 71% Last Result, Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 349 90% 326–371 315–378 311–378 299–386
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 345 87% 322–368 311–373 308–375 295–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 322 42% 306–352 299–358 295–365 287–370
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 319 40% 301–349 296–355 291–361 283–367
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 328 54% 300–344 293–351 288–354 284–362
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 303 15% 287–331 280–338 277–343 269–347
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 312 19% 282–330 276–335 270–340 264–348
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 300 12% 283–327 277–337 273–339 266–345
Conservative Party 317 309 9% 279–325 273–332 266–336 261–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 286 2% 263–309 257–320 256–323 249–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 282 1.1% 260–305 253–316 252–320 245–332
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 264 0% 242–289 241–296 239–302 230–317
Labour Party 262 260 0% 238–285 237–293 235–298 226–313

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.3%  
301 0% 99.3%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.1% 99.1%  
304 0.1% 99.0%  
305 0.1% 98.9%  
306 1.0% 98.9%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.7% 98%  
312 2% 97%  
313 0.2% 95%  
314 0.2% 95%  
315 0.1% 95%  
316 0.1% 95%  
317 1.2% 95%  
318 0.4% 94%  
319 0.1% 93%  
320 0.1% 93%  
321 2% 93%  
322 0.1% 91%  
323 0.2% 91%  
324 0.8% 91%  
325 0.3% 90%  
326 2% 90% Majority
327 0.5% 88%  
328 0.3% 88%  
329 1.5% 87%  
330 0.3% 86%  
331 0.4% 86%  
332 1.1% 85%  
333 0.5% 84%  
334 0.7% 84%  
335 3% 83%  
336 0.3% 80%  
337 1.0% 80%  
338 14% 79%  
339 0.7% 65%  
340 0.2% 64%  
341 0.3% 64%  
342 2% 64%  
343 0.6% 62%  
344 4% 61%  
345 6% 58%  
346 0.5% 52%  
347 1.4% 52%  
348 0.2% 50%  
349 0.3% 50%  
350 2% 50%  
351 0.9% 48%  
352 0.2% 47%  
353 0.7% 47%  
354 2% 46% Median
355 1.3% 44%  
356 4% 43% Last Result
357 3% 38%  
358 0.5% 36%  
359 2% 35%  
360 0.9% 33%  
361 1.3% 32%  
362 0.1% 31%  
363 0.4% 31%  
364 2% 30%  
365 3% 28%  
366 0.6% 25%  
367 6% 24%  
368 2% 18%  
369 0.3% 17%  
370 6% 16%  
371 0.8% 10%  
372 0.4% 9%  
373 0.7% 9%  
374 0.5% 8%  
375 2% 8%  
376 0.3% 6%  
377 0.3% 6%  
378 3% 6%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.1% 2%  
383 0.1% 1.5%  
384 0.2% 1.3%  
385 0.5% 1.2%  
386 0.3% 0.6%  
387 0% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0.1% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0.3% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.3%  
297 0% 99.3%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 0.1% 99.0%  
302 0.1% 98.9%  
303 1.0% 98.8%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0% 98%  
308 2% 98%  
309 0.2% 96%  
310 0.1% 95%  
311 0.4% 95%  
312 0.2% 95%  
313 1.1% 95%  
314 0.3% 94%  
315 0.1% 93%  
316 0.2% 93%  
317 0.8% 93%  
318 0.8% 92%  
319 0.6% 91%  
320 0.1% 91%  
321 0.4% 91%  
322 2% 90%  
323 0.4% 88%  
324 0.6% 88%  
325 0.3% 87%  
326 1.4% 87% Majority
327 0.1% 86%  
328 2% 86%  
329 0.1% 84%  
330 0.1% 84%  
331 2% 84%  
332 1.3% 82%  
333 1.0% 81%  
334 15% 80%  
335 0.3% 65%  
336 0.3% 64%  
337 0.2% 64%  
338 0.1% 64%  
339 0.9% 64%  
340 4% 63%  
341 5% 59%  
342 2% 54%  
343 0.1% 52%  
344 1.4% 52%  
345 0.7% 50%  
346 0.3% 50%  
347 0.7% 49%  
348 0.7% 49%  
349 0.1% 48%  
350 4% 48% Median
351 0.8% 44%  
352 0.3% 43% Last Result
353 7% 43%  
354 0.3% 36%  
355 2% 36%  
356 1.0% 34%  
357 1.1% 33%  
358 0.2% 32%  
359 0.5% 32%  
360 0.1% 31%  
361 6% 31%  
362 1.4% 25%  
363 5% 24%  
364 0.8% 19%  
365 0.7% 18%  
366 5% 17%  
367 2% 13%  
368 1.5% 11%  
369 0.7% 9%  
370 1.3% 9%  
371 0.8% 7%  
372 0.7% 7%  
373 0.9% 6%  
374 2% 5%  
375 0.5% 3%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.1% 2%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0% 1.4%  
380 0.4% 1.4%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.4% 0.8%  
383 0% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0.1% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.3% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.5%  
287 0.3% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.2%  
289 0.2% 99.1%  
290 0.1% 99.0%  
291 0.4% 98.9%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.9% 98%  
296 0.7% 97%  
297 0.3% 96%  
298 0.4% 96%  
299 0.7% 95%  
300 0.5% 95%  
301 1.1% 94%  
302 0.1% 93%  
303 1.3% 93%  
304 0.4% 92%  
305 0.9% 91%  
306 3% 90%  
307 0.8% 87%  
308 0.6% 86%  
309 5% 86%  
310 7% 81%  
311 2% 74%  
312 3% 72%  
313 2% 68% Last Result
314 0.2% 67%  
315 0.2% 66%  
316 0.7% 66%  
317 6% 66%  
318 7% 60%  
319 1.1% 53%  
320 0.9% 52%  
321 0.7% 51%  
322 2% 50%  
323 0.5% 48%  
324 0.4% 48%  
325 5% 48% Median
326 1.3% 42% Majority
327 0.2% 41%  
328 0.3% 41%  
329 0.5% 40%  
330 0.1% 40%  
331 0.4% 40%  
332 13% 39%  
333 0.5% 26%  
334 0.7% 25%  
335 0.8% 25%  
336 2% 24%  
337 1.5% 22%  
338 0.7% 21%  
339 0.1% 20%  
340 1.4% 20%  
341 2% 18%  
342 0.3% 17%  
343 0.8% 16%  
344 0.6% 16%  
345 0.7% 15%  
346 0.2% 14%  
347 0.2% 14%  
348 0.4% 14%  
349 0.6% 14%  
350 1.0% 13%  
351 2% 12%  
352 0.3% 10%  
353 0.2% 10%  
354 0.8% 10%  
355 3% 9%  
356 0.3% 6%  
357 0.4% 6%  
358 0.3% 5%  
359 0.2% 5%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.4% 4%  
362 0.1% 3%  
363 0.1% 3%  
364 0.1% 3%  
365 1.0% 3%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0% 2%  
368 0% 2%  
369 0% 2%  
370 1.3% 2%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.2% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.3% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.3%  
285 0.1% 99.2%  
286 0.1% 99.1%  
287 0.3% 99.0%  
288 0.6% 98.7%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.9% 98%  
292 0.1% 97%  
293 0.7% 97%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.5% 96%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 0.9% 94%  
298 0.8% 94%  
299 0.2% 93%  
300 1.1% 93%  
301 2% 91%  
302 3% 90%  
303 0.4% 87%  
304 0.5% 87%  
305 5% 86%  
306 6% 81%  
307 0.3% 74%  
308 6% 74%  
309 0.4% 69% Last Result
310 0.8% 68%  
311 1.1% 67%  
312 0.1% 66%  
313 0.3% 66%  
314 12% 66%  
315 1.2% 54%  
316 1.2% 53%  
317 0.4% 51%  
318 0.6% 51%  
319 0.9% 50%  
320 0.4% 49%  
321 6% 49% Median
322 0.2% 43%  
323 2% 42%  
324 0.7% 41%  
325 0.1% 40%  
326 0.1% 40% Majority
327 0.4% 40%  
328 14% 40%  
329 0.4% 26%  
330 0.7% 25%  
331 0.4% 25%  
332 0.9% 24%  
333 0.8% 23%  
334 0.9% 23%  
335 0.4% 22%  
336 2% 21%  
337 2% 19%  
338 1.1% 18%  
339 0.3% 16%  
340 0.6% 16%  
341 0.2% 16%  
342 0.8% 15%  
343 0.4% 15%  
344 0.4% 14%  
345 0.7% 14%  
346 1.0% 13%  
347 2% 12%  
348 0.4% 10%  
349 0.8% 10%  
350 0% 9%  
351 3% 9%  
352 0.2% 6%  
353 0.5% 6%  
354 0.4% 6%  
355 0.1% 5%  
356 1.0% 5%  
357 0.2% 4%  
358 0.6% 4%  
359 0.1% 3%  
360 0% 3%  
361 1.1% 3%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0% 2%  
364 0% 2%  
365 0% 2%  
366 1.2% 2%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 1.3% 99.6%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 1.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 1.2% 96%  
291 0.1% 95%  
292 0% 95%  
293 0.9% 95%  
294 0.2% 94%  
295 2% 94%  
296 0.5% 92%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 0.4% 91%  
299 0.2% 90%  
300 0.8% 90%  
301 2% 89%  
302 0.3% 87%  
303 0.1% 87%  
304 0.3% 87%  
305 2% 87%  
306 0.2% 85%  
307 0.1% 85%  
308 0.6% 85%  
309 0.4% 84%  
310 0.2% 84%  
311 2% 84%  
312 1.0% 82%  
313 1.4% 81%  
314 0.2% 79%  
315 2% 79%  
316 2% 77%  
317 0.8% 75%  
318 0.4% 74%  
319 13% 74%  
320 0.4% 61%  
321 0.1% 60%  
322 0.8% 60%  
323 0.4% 59%  
324 0.1% 59%  
325 5% 59%  
326 0.6% 54% Majority
327 3% 53%  
328 1.1% 50%  
329 0.3% 49% Last Result, Median
330 2% 49%  
331 2% 46%  
332 3% 44%  
333 4% 41%  
334 1.3% 37%  
335 0.6% 35%  
336 6% 35%  
337 0.1% 29%  
338 6% 29%  
339 1.3% 23%  
340 0.2% 21%  
341 4% 21%  
342 2% 17%  
343 0.4% 15%  
344 5% 14%  
345 0.2% 9%  
346 0.7% 9%  
347 1.4% 8%  
348 0.3% 7%  
349 1.1% 7%  
350 0.3% 6%  
351 0.6% 5%  
352 0.1% 5%  
353 0.9% 5%  
354 1.3% 4%  
355 0.4% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.1% 1.4%  
359 0.2% 1.3%  
360 0.2% 1.1%  
361 0.2% 1.0%  
362 0.3% 0.7%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.2% 0.4%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.2% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0.3% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.3%  
271 0.2% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.4% 98.6%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 1.3% 98%  
278 0.9% 96%  
279 0% 95%  
280 0.6% 95%  
281 0.4% 95%  
282 1.1% 94%  
283 0.5% 93%  
284 1.3% 93%  
285 0.7% 92%  
286 0.2% 91%  
287 5% 91%  
288 0.9% 86%  
289 4% 85%  
290 2% 81%  
291 0.2% 79%  
292 1.3% 79%  
293 6% 77%  
294 0.3% 71%  
295 6% 71%  
296 1.3% 65%  
297 0.4% 64%  
298 4% 63%  
299 4% 59%  
300 2% 56%  
301 2% 53% Last Result
302 0.5% 51%  
303 0.9% 51%  
304 3% 50%  
305 0.7% 47% Median
306 5% 46%  
307 0.3% 41%  
308 0.4% 41%  
309 0.5% 40%  
310 0.2% 40%  
311 0.3% 40%  
312 13% 39%  
313 0.6% 26%  
314 0.5% 25%  
315 2% 25%  
316 2% 23%  
317 0.2% 21%  
318 1.4% 21%  
319 1.2% 19%  
320 2% 18%  
321 0.2% 16%  
322 0.4% 16%  
323 0.5% 16%  
324 0.2% 15%  
325 0.2% 15%  
326 2% 15% Majority
327 0.3% 13%  
328 0.1% 13%  
329 0.4% 13%  
330 2% 13%  
331 0.4% 10%  
332 0.2% 10%  
333 0.4% 10%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 0.9% 8%  
336 1.5% 8%  
337 0.2% 6%  
338 0.9% 6%  
339 0.1% 5%  
340 0.1% 5%  
341 1.2% 5%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 1.1% 3%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 1.3% 2%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0.2% 99.7%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 1.2% 99.5%  
266 0% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0% 98%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 1.1% 98%  
271 0% 97%  
272 0.1% 97%  
273 0.6% 97%  
274 0.2% 96%  
275 1.0% 96%  
276 0.2% 95%  
277 0.4% 95%  
278 0.4% 94%  
279 0.2% 94%  
280 3% 94%  
281 0.3% 91%  
282 0.5% 90%  
283 0.4% 90%  
284 2% 90%  
285 1.2% 88%  
286 0.5% 87%  
287 0.5% 86%  
288 0.4% 86%  
289 0.8% 85%  
290 0.2% 85%  
291 0.5% 84%  
292 0.3% 84%  
293 1.2% 83%  
294 2% 82%  
295 2% 80%  
296 0.2% 78%  
297 0.9% 78%  
298 0.8% 77%  
299 0.9% 76%  
300 0.5% 76%  
301 0.7% 75%  
302 0.6% 74%  
303 14% 74%  
304 0.4% 60%  
305 0.2% 60%  
306 0.2% 60%  
307 0.8% 60%  
308 1.3% 59%  
309 0.3% 58%  
310 6% 57%  
311 0.2% 51%  
312 1.0% 51%  
313 0.6% 50% Median
314 0.4% 49%  
315 1.1% 49%  
316 1.2% 47%  
317 12% 46%  
318 0.2% 34%  
319 0.4% 34%  
320 1.4% 33%  
321 0.2% 32% Last Result
322 1.4% 32%  
323 5% 30%  
324 3% 26%  
325 4% 23%  
326 5% 19% Majority
327 0.5% 14%  
328 0.5% 13%  
329 3% 13%  
330 2% 10%  
331 1.1% 8%  
332 0.4% 7%  
333 0.5% 7%  
334 0.9% 6%  
335 0.9% 6%  
336 0.4% 5%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.1% 3%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.6% 2%  
344 0.3% 1.3%  
345 0.1% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.9%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.3% 0.7%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.2% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0.5% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.1%  
268 0.1% 98.9%  
269 0% 98.8%  
270 0.3% 98.7%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.5% 98%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 1.0% 97%  
275 0.1% 96%  
276 0.3% 96%  
277 1.2% 96%  
278 0.6% 94%  
279 1.1% 94%  
280 1.3% 93%  
281 0.2% 91%  
282 0.6% 91%  
283 5% 91%  
284 0.4% 86%  
285 3% 85%  
286 3% 83%  
287 1.1% 79%  
288 0.8% 78%  
289 0.4% 78%  
290 6% 77%  
291 6% 71%  
292 0.5% 65%  
293 0.4% 64%  
294 4% 64%  
295 5% 61%  
296 0.1% 56%  
297 2% 55% Last Result
298 0.4% 53%  
299 0.9% 53%  
300 4% 52%  
301 1.2% 48% Median
302 5% 47%  
303 0.6% 41%  
304 0.2% 41%  
305 0.3% 41%  
306 0.1% 40%  
307 0.2% 40%  
308 14% 40%  
309 0.5% 26%  
310 0.8% 25%  
311 0.5% 25%  
312 0.5% 24%  
313 1.2% 24%  
314 1.2% 22%  
315 2% 21%  
316 1.1% 19%  
317 1.4% 18%  
318 0.4% 17%  
319 0.5% 16%  
320 0.6% 16%  
321 0.3% 15%  
322 1.2% 15%  
323 0.5% 14%  
324 0.2% 13%  
325 0.4% 13%  
326 2% 12% Majority
327 0.3% 10%  
328 0.1% 10%  
329 0.6% 10%  
330 0.7% 9%  
331 0.7% 8%  
332 1.3% 8%  
333 0.3% 6%  
334 0.8% 6%  
335 0.1% 5%  
336 0.1% 5%  
337 1.4% 5%  
338 0.2% 4%  
339 1.2% 3%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 1.2% 2%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 1.3% 99.6%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0% 98%  
264 0% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 1.1% 98%  
267 0.1% 97%  
268 0.1% 97%  
269 0.1% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 1.2% 96%  
272 0.1% 95%  
273 0.3% 95%  
274 0.4% 95%  
275 0.5% 94%  
276 3% 94%  
277 0.5% 91%  
278 0.2% 90%  
279 0.3% 90%  
280 2% 90%  
281 0.7% 88%  
282 0.6% 87%  
283 0.5% 86%  
284 0.1% 86%  
285 0.2% 86%  
286 0.6% 86%  
287 0.6% 85%  
288 0.9% 84%  
289 0.3% 83%  
290 2% 83%  
291 1.4% 82%  
292 0.1% 80%  
293 0.6% 80%  
294 1.5% 79%  
295 2% 78%  
296 0.6% 76%  
297 0.9% 75%  
298 0.2% 74%  
299 13% 74%  
300 0.4% 61%  
301 0.2% 60%  
302 0.4% 60%  
303 0.2% 60%  
304 0.2% 59%  
305 2% 59%  
306 5% 58%  
307 0.3% 52%  
308 0.6% 52%  
309 2% 52% Median
310 0.5% 50%  
311 0.9% 49%  
312 1.2% 48%  
313 7% 47%  
314 6% 40%  
315 0.5% 34%  
316 0.3% 34%  
317 1.4% 33% Last Result
318 0.5% 32%  
319 4% 32%  
320 5% 28%  
321 4% 23%  
322 5% 19%  
323 0.6% 14%  
324 0.8% 14%  
325 3% 13%  
326 1.0% 9% Majority
327 0.6% 9%  
328 1.0% 8%  
329 0.2% 7%  
330 1.1% 7%  
331 0.4% 6%  
332 0.7% 5%  
333 0.4% 5%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.9% 3%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0% 0.8%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.5%  
346 0% 0.5%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0.1% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0.3% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.2%  
251 0.4% 99.0%  
252 0.1% 98.6%  
253 0.5% 98.6%  
254 0.1% 98%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 2% 97%  
258 0.9% 95%  
259 0.8% 94%  
260 0.7% 93%  
261 1.4% 93%  
262 0.8% 91%  
263 1.3% 90%  
264 2% 89%  
265 5% 87%  
266 0.7% 83%  
267 0.8% 82%  
268 6% 81%  
269 0.7% 75%  
270 5% 74%  
271 0.1% 69%  
272 0.5% 69%  
273 0.2% 68%  
274 1.3% 68%  
275 0.8% 67%  
276 2% 66%  
277 0.4% 64%  
278 7% 64% Last Result
279 0.2% 57%  
280 3% 57%  
281 2% 54%  
282 0.4% 52%  
283 0.5% 52%  
284 0.8% 51% Median
285 0.2% 51%  
286 0.5% 50%  
287 1.3% 50%  
288 0.1% 48%  
289 2% 48%  
290 6% 46%  
291 4% 41%  
292 0.8% 37%  
293 0.1% 36%  
294 0.3% 36%  
295 0.2% 36%  
296 0.5% 36%  
297 15% 35%  
298 1.0% 20%  
299 1.3% 19%  
300 2% 18%  
301 0.1% 16%  
302 0.3% 16%  
303 2% 16%  
304 0.5% 14%  
305 1.1% 14%  
306 0.3% 13%  
307 0.5% 13%  
308 0.4% 12%  
309 2% 12%  
310 0.3% 9%  
311 0.7% 9%  
312 0.1% 9%  
313 0.8% 8%  
314 0.8% 8%  
315 0.2% 7%  
316 0.1% 7%  
317 0.3% 7%  
318 1.2% 6%  
319 0.1% 5%  
320 0.4% 5%  
321 0.1% 5%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 2% 4%  
324 0% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 1.0% 2%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 1.1%  
331 0.1% 1.0%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.7%  
336 0.3% 0.7%  
337 0% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0.1% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0% 99.7%  
245 0.3% 99.6%  
246 0.5% 99.4%  
247 0.2% 98.8%  
248 0.1% 98.6%  
249 0.1% 98.5%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 3% 97%  
254 0.3% 94%  
255 0.3% 94%  
256 2% 94%  
257 0.7% 92%  
258 0.5% 92%  
259 0.5% 91%  
260 0.7% 90%  
261 6% 90%  
262 0.3% 84%  
263 3% 83%  
264 5% 80%  
265 0.6% 76%  
266 3% 75%  
267 2% 72%  
268 0.4% 70%  
269 0.6% 69%  
270 0.9% 69%  
271 1.1% 68%  
272 2% 67%  
273 0.6% 65%  
274 3% 64% Last Result
275 5% 62%  
276 3% 57%  
277 0.4% 54%  
278 0.4% 53%  
279 0.2% 53%  
280 1.1% 53% Median
281 2% 52%  
282 0.5% 50%  
283 0.1% 50%  
284 1.4% 50%  
285 1.0% 48%  
286 5% 47%  
287 3% 42%  
288 0.5% 39%  
289 2% 38%  
290 0.3% 36%  
291 0.2% 36%  
292 0.8% 36%  
293 14% 35%  
294 1.1% 21%  
295 0.3% 20%  
296 3% 20%  
297 0.7% 17%  
298 0.5% 16%  
299 1.3% 16%  
300 0.2% 15%  
301 0.5% 14%  
302 1.3% 14%  
303 0.4% 13%  
304 0.4% 12%  
305 2% 12%  
306 0.8% 10%  
307 0.3% 9%  
308 0.2% 9%  
309 0.2% 9%  
310 1.4% 8%  
311 0.2% 7%  
312 0.1% 7%  
313 0.4% 7%  
314 1.2% 6%  
315 0% 5%  
316 0.1% 5%  
317 0.2% 5%  
318 0.2% 5%  
319 2% 5%  
320 0.7% 3%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 1.0% 2%  
326 0.1% 1.1% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.1% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0% 0.7%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.3% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0.1% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0.1% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.3% 99.7%  
231 0.3% 99.4%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0.6% 98.8%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0% 98%  
238 0.1% 98%  
239 0.3% 98%  
240 1.3% 97%  
241 2% 96%  
242 7% 94%  
243 0.5% 87%  
244 2% 87%  
245 0.7% 85%  
246 3% 84%  
247 1.5% 82%  
248 0.1% 80%  
249 0.2% 80%  
250 1.3% 80%  
251 1.4% 79%  
252 1.3% 77%  
253 1.0% 76%  
254 10% 75%  
255 0.3% 65%  
256 3% 65%  
257 0.1% 62%  
258 0.5% 62%  
259 4% 61%  
260 0.6% 58%  
261 3% 57%  
262 2% 54%  
263 0.8% 52%  
264 1.1% 51% Median
265 0.9% 50%  
266 0.6% 49% Last Result
267 0.3% 48%  
268 2% 48%  
269 0.4% 47%  
270 0.1% 46%  
271 5% 46%  
272 3% 41%  
273 0.5% 37%  
274 2% 37%  
275 0.6% 35%  
276 0.6% 34%  
277 14% 34%  
278 1.1% 20%  
279 0.3% 19%  
280 0.1% 19%  
281 0.9% 18%  
282 0.5% 18%  
283 0.6% 17%  
284 3% 17%  
285 1.4% 13%  
286 0.8% 12%  
287 0.2% 11%  
288 0.2% 11%  
289 1.5% 11%  
290 0.3% 9%  
291 0.6% 9%  
292 1.1% 9%  
293 0.1% 7%  
294 0.4% 7%  
295 0.1% 7%  
296 2% 7%  
297 0% 5%  
298 0.4% 5%  
299 0.3% 5%  
300 1.2% 4%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0% 2%  
307 1.0% 2%  
308 0.1% 1.2%  
309 0.1% 1.0%  
310 0% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 1.0%  
312 0% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0% 0.7%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0.2% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0.1% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0.1% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.3% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.4%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.4% 99.1%  
230 0.4% 98.8%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0% 98%  
233 0.1% 98%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.8% 98%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 3% 96%  
238 5% 94%  
239 3% 89%  
240 1.2% 87%  
241 0.3% 85%  
242 1.3% 85%  
243 2% 84%  
244 0.5% 82%  
245 0.3% 82%  
246 2% 81%  
247 2% 80%  
248 1.0% 77%  
249 0.5% 76%  
250 5% 76%  
251 5% 70%  
252 3% 66%  
253 0.7% 63%  
254 0.4% 62%  
255 2% 62%  
256 0.8% 59%  
257 2% 58%  
258 4% 56%  
259 0.8% 52%  
260 2% 51% Median
261 0.6% 50%  
262 0.2% 49% Last Result
263 0.6% 49%  
264 0.2% 48%  
265 0.3% 48%  
266 0.4% 48%  
267 5% 47%  
268 5% 42%  
269 0.9% 37%  
270 1.2% 37%  
271 0.5% 35%  
272 0.2% 35%  
273 14% 35%  
274 0.4% 20%  
275 1.1% 20%  
276 0.2% 19%  
277 0.7% 19%  
278 0.2% 18%  
279 0.6% 18%  
280 2% 17%  
281 3% 15%  
282 0.7% 12%  
283 0.6% 12%  
284 0.2% 11%  
285 1.1% 11%  
286 0.5% 10%  
287 0.5% 9%  
288 0.8% 9%  
289 0.3% 8%  
290 0.6% 8%  
291 0% 7%  
292 1.1% 7%  
293 0.8% 6%  
294 0.2% 5%  
295 0.3% 5%  
296 1.3% 4%  
297 0.3% 3%  
298 0.4% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0% 2%  
301 0% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0% 2%  
304 0.9% 2%  
305 0.1% 1.2%  
306 0% 1.0%  
307 0.1% 1.0%  
308 0.1% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.2% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.5%  
314 0% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations