Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 22–24 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.9% 39.5–42.3% 39.1–42.7% 38.7–43.1% 38.1–43.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.9% 38.5–41.3% 38.1–41.7% 37.8–42.1% 37.1–42.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 301 280–328 272–330 270–335 261–339
Labour Party 262 280 250–308 249–315 243–315 238–324
Liberal Democrats 12 21 17–26 16–26 16–27 15–28
Scottish National Party 35 26 13–47 9–48 8–49 6–51
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.2% 99.9%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.0%  
265 0.3% 98.9%  
266 0% 98.7%  
267 0.5% 98.7%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 2% 98%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.8% 95%  
273 0% 95%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 0.3% 94%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 1.2% 93%  
278 1.0% 92%  
279 0.2% 91%  
280 1.3% 91%  
281 0.9% 90%  
282 0.7% 89%  
283 1.0% 88%  
284 4% 87%  
285 4% 83%  
286 0.1% 80%  
287 3% 80%  
288 0.8% 77%  
289 0.4% 76%  
290 0.6% 76%  
291 0.9% 75%  
292 0.3% 74%  
293 0.2% 74%  
294 0.9% 74%  
295 0.7% 73%  
296 4% 72%  
297 4% 68%  
298 0% 64%  
299 0.4% 64%  
300 0.8% 64%  
301 14% 63% Median
302 3% 49%  
303 0.8% 47%  
304 1.0% 46%  
305 1.0% 45%  
306 1.3% 44%  
307 1.1% 42%  
308 4% 41%  
309 9% 37%  
310 0.6% 28%  
311 0.1% 27%  
312 0.6% 27%  
313 3% 26%  
314 0.9% 23%  
315 0.5% 22%  
316 0.2% 22%  
317 0.6% 22% Last Result
318 0.5% 21%  
319 0.2% 20%  
320 6% 20%  
321 0.4% 14%  
322 0.8% 14%  
323 0.5% 13%  
324 0.4% 13%  
325 0.3% 12%  
326 0.8% 12% Majority
327 1.0% 11%  
328 5% 10%  
329 0.1% 5%  
330 0.8% 5%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 1.1% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0% 1.4%  
338 0.5% 1.4%  
339 0.5% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.8%  
238 0.3% 99.6%  
239 0.7% 99.3%  
240 0.4% 98.6%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 0% 98%  
244 0.2% 97%  
245 0.2% 97%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 0.3% 96%  
249 1.0% 96%  
250 7% 95%  
251 0.4% 88%  
252 0.7% 88%  
253 0.4% 87%  
254 3% 87%  
255 1.1% 83%  
256 0.9% 82%  
257 0.5% 81%  
258 0.8% 81%  
259 0.5% 80%  
260 0.3% 79%  
261 0.3% 79%  
262 0.1% 79% Last Result
263 5% 79%  
264 0.3% 74%  
265 0.1% 73%  
266 1.0% 73%  
267 2% 72%  
268 0.8% 71%  
269 0.2% 70%  
270 1.2% 70%  
271 0.8% 68%  
272 3% 68%  
273 0.8% 65%  
274 2% 64%  
275 3% 62%  
276 4% 59%  
277 2% 55%  
278 2% 53%  
279 0.8% 51%  
280 6% 51% Median
281 1.0% 44%  
282 1.3% 43%  
283 0% 42%  
284 0.5% 42%  
285 1.3% 41%  
286 4% 40%  
287 0.1% 36%  
288 8% 36%  
289 2% 28%  
290 3% 26%  
291 4% 23%  
292 2% 19%  
293 0.7% 16%  
294 0.5% 16%  
295 0.9% 15%  
296 0.6% 14%  
297 1.1% 14%  
298 0.7% 13%  
299 0.9% 12%  
300 0.2% 11%  
301 0.1% 11%  
302 0% 11%  
303 0.3% 11%  
304 0.1% 10%  
305 0% 10%  
306 0.1% 10%  
307 0% 10%  
308 0.1% 10%  
309 0.1% 10%  
310 0.4% 10%  
311 0.5% 9%  
312 2% 9%  
313 0.9% 7%  
314 0.3% 6%  
315 4% 6%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0% 1.0%  
324 0.6% 1.0%  
325 0.2% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 1.2% 99.6%  
16 5% 98%  
17 4% 93%  
18 14% 89%  
19 10% 75%  
20 12% 65%  
21 14% 54% Median
22 8% 39%  
23 6% 31%  
24 12% 26%  
25 0.4% 14%  
26 10% 14%  
27 0.9% 3%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.7%  
5 0.1% 99.7%  
6 0.4% 99.6%  
7 1.4% 99.2%  
8 1.0% 98%  
9 6% 97%  
10 0.2% 91%  
11 0.1% 91%  
12 0.2% 91%  
13 13% 91%  
14 3% 78%  
15 0.2% 75%  
16 0.3% 75%  
17 2% 75%  
18 0.5% 73%  
19 2% 72%  
20 1.1% 70%  
21 2% 69%  
22 0.1% 66%  
23 0.8% 66%  
24 6% 65%  
25 3% 60%  
26 15% 57% Median
27 0.8% 41%  
28 0.8% 41%  
29 0.6% 40%  
30 0.2% 39%  
31 0% 39%  
32 0.5% 39%  
33 0.9% 39%  
34 0% 38%  
35 0.3% 38% Last Result
36 0.1% 37%  
37 0.2% 37%  
38 1.0% 37%  
39 0.9% 36%  
40 11% 35%  
41 3% 24%  
42 2% 21%  
43 0.5% 19%  
44 3% 18%  
45 2% 15%  
46 1.3% 14%  
47 3% 13%  
48 7% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.2% 0.9%  
51 0.5% 0.6%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 27% 48%  
2 16% 21%  
3 4% 5%  
4 1.4% 2% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 327 61% 305–360 293–360 292–367 285–374
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 327 58% 304–360 293–360 290–367 285–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 330 56% 303–350 301–359 296–361 292–370
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 328 55% 303–349 300–358 296–360 291–370
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 325 45% 301–346 295–350 293–356 286–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 304 11% 271–327 271–338 264–341 257–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 304 11% 271–326 271–338 264–339 257–345
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 306 15% 285–329 281–336 275–338 273–345
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 306 14% 285–329 280–336 274–338 272–345
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 303 12% 281–328 273–330 271–335 261–340
Conservative Party 317 301 12% 280–328 272–330 270–335 261–339
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 280 0.4% 250–308 250–315 244–315 239–325
Labour Party 262 280 0.2% 250–308 249–315 243–315 238–324

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.2% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.4%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.2%  
290 0.5% 99.0%  
291 0.7% 98.6%  
292 0.6% 98%  
293 4% 97%  
294 0.2% 94%  
295 0.3% 94%  
296 2% 93%  
297 0.4% 91%  
298 0.1% 91%  
299 0.4% 91%  
300 0.1% 91%  
301 0% 90%  
302 0.1% 90%  
303 0% 90%  
304 0.2% 90%  
305 0.7% 90%  
306 0.4% 89%  
307 0.9% 89%  
308 0.3% 88%  
309 1.0% 88%  
310 0.9% 87%  
311 0.1% 86%  
312 0.1% 86%  
313 0.3% 86%  
314 0.1% 86%  
315 0.1% 86%  
316 1.1% 85%  
317 0.2% 84%  
318 0.1% 84%  
319 3% 84%  
320 0.5% 81%  
321 4% 81%  
322 5% 77%  
323 8% 72%  
324 0.9% 64%  
325 2% 63%  
326 3% 61% Majority
327 9% 58% Median
328 0.8% 49%  
329 4% 48%  
330 2% 45%  
331 3% 43%  
332 2% 40%  
333 0.5% 38%  
334 0.5% 38%  
335 0.5% 37%  
336 0.2% 37%  
337 0.1% 37%  
338 0.2% 36%  
339 0.1% 36%  
340 2% 36%  
341 2% 34%  
342 0.4% 32%  
343 1.3% 31%  
344 0.2% 30%  
345 0.6% 30%  
346 1.0% 29%  
347 0.6% 28%  
348 1.3% 27%  
349 0.4% 26%  
350 4% 26%  
351 1.3% 21%  
352 0.1% 20%  
353 0.4% 20%  
354 2% 19%  
355 4% 17%  
356 0.4% 14% Last Result
357 0.4% 13%  
358 0.7% 13%  
359 1.0% 12%  
360 7% 11%  
361 0.2% 5%  
362 0.3% 4%  
363 0.2% 4%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.2% 4%  
366 0.8% 3%  
367 0.2% 3%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0% 2%  
370 0.1% 2%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.3%  
374 0.8% 1.1%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0% 99.4%  
288 0.3% 99.3%  
289 0.4% 99.1%  
290 1.2% 98.7%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 0.4% 97%  
293 3% 97%  
294 0.1% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 0% 91%  
297 0.7% 91%  
298 0.1% 91%  
299 0% 91%  
300 0.1% 90%  
301 0.1% 90%  
302 0% 90%  
303 0.1% 90%  
304 0.6% 90%  
305 0.4% 90%  
306 0.4% 89%  
307 1.0% 89%  
308 0.3% 88%  
309 0.9% 87%  
310 0.7% 87%  
311 0.2% 86%  
312 0.1% 86%  
313 0% 86%  
314 0.3% 85%  
315 0.5% 85%  
316 0.7% 85%  
317 0.2% 84%  
318 0.1% 84%  
319 3% 84%  
320 3% 81%  
321 5% 78%  
322 9% 73%  
323 1.2% 63%  
324 0.3% 62%  
325 4% 62%  
326 1.3% 58% Majority
327 11% 57% Median
328 0.7% 46%  
329 2% 45%  
330 2% 43%  
331 3% 41%  
332 0.5% 38%  
333 0.2% 38%  
334 0.5% 38%  
335 0.7% 37%  
336 0.1% 36%  
337 0% 36%  
338 0.2% 36%  
339 2% 36%  
340 0.6% 34%  
341 3% 34%  
342 0.5% 30%  
343 0.2% 30%  
344 0.3% 30%  
345 1.3% 29%  
346 0.8% 28%  
347 0.2% 27%  
348 1.3% 27%  
349 5% 26%  
350 0.2% 21%  
351 1.3% 21%  
352 0.8% 20% Last Result
353 0.4% 19%  
354 4% 19%  
355 1.2% 14%  
356 1.4% 13%  
357 0.3% 12%  
358 1.1% 12%  
359 0.2% 10%  
360 6% 10%  
361 0.1% 4%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.2% 4%  
364 0.8% 4%  
365 0.1% 3%  
366 0.4% 3%  
367 0.2% 3%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.3% 1.0%  
374 0.5% 0.7%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0.1% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.5% 99.5%  
293 0.5% 99.1%  
294 0% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98.6%  
296 1.1% 98%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 0.6% 96%  
300 0.1% 96%  
301 0.8% 96%  
302 0.1% 95%  
303 5% 95%  
304 1.0% 90%  
305 0.8% 89%  
306 0.3% 88%  
307 0.4% 88%  
308 0.8% 87%  
309 0.4% 87%  
310 0.4% 86%  
311 6% 86%  
312 0% 80%  
313 0.5% 80% Last Result
314 0.7% 79%  
315 0.3% 78%  
316 0.5% 78%  
317 1.1% 78%  
318 3% 76%  
319 0.7% 74%  
320 0.2% 73%  
321 0.9% 73%  
322 9% 72%  
323 5% 63%  
324 0.9% 58%  
325 1.2% 58%  
326 1.0% 56% Majority
327 1.0% 55% Median
328 0.8% 54%  
329 3% 53%  
330 14% 51%  
331 0.2% 36%  
332 0.4% 36%  
333 0% 36%  
334 4% 36%  
335 4% 32%  
336 0.5% 27%  
337 1.0% 27%  
338 0.1% 26%  
339 0.3% 26%  
340 1.0% 25%  
341 0.6% 24%  
342 0.4% 24%  
343 1.0% 23%  
344 2% 22%  
345 0.1% 20%  
346 4% 20%  
347 4% 17%  
348 1.0% 13%  
349 0.7% 12%  
350 2% 11%  
351 0.6% 10%  
352 0.2% 9%  
353 1.0% 9%  
354 1.2% 8%  
355 0.4% 7%  
356 0.2% 6%  
357 0.6% 6%  
358 0.1% 5%  
359 0.7% 5%  
360 0.4% 5%  
361 2% 4%  
362 0.2% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0% 1.3%  
366 0.3% 1.3%  
367 0.1% 1.1%  
368 0.2% 1.0%  
369 0.2% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0.2% 0.5%  
372 0.2% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0.1% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.5% 99.5%  
292 0.4% 99.0%  
293 0.1% 98.6%  
294 0.3% 98.5%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.9% 98%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 1.2% 97%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.1% 95%  
301 0.2% 95%  
302 3% 95%  
303 3% 91%  
304 0.1% 89%  
305 0.8% 88%  
306 0.2% 88%  
307 0.6% 87%  
308 0.5% 87%  
309 0.4% 86% Last Result
310 0.3% 86%  
311 7% 86%  
312 0.5% 79%  
313 0.1% 78%  
314 0.2% 78%  
315 0.2% 78%  
316 0.5% 78%  
317 3% 77%  
318 1.2% 75%  
319 0.7% 74%  
320 1.2% 73%  
321 9% 72%  
322 3% 63%  
323 3% 60%  
324 0.9% 58%  
325 2% 57%  
326 0.5% 55% Majority
327 0.3% 54% Median
328 4% 54%  
329 7% 50%  
330 8% 43%  
331 0.3% 35%  
332 0.2% 35%  
333 3% 35%  
334 3% 32%  
335 1.4% 28%  
336 0.7% 27%  
337 0.6% 26%  
338 0.2% 26%  
339 0.1% 25%  
340 1.0% 25%  
341 1.1% 24%  
342 0.4% 23%  
343 0.8% 23%  
344 2% 22%  
345 3% 20%  
346 2% 17%  
347 3% 15%  
348 0.6% 12%  
349 2% 11%  
350 0.5% 10%  
351 0.2% 9%  
352 0.6% 9%  
353 2% 8%  
354 0.5% 7%  
355 0.2% 6%  
356 0.6% 6%  
357 0.2% 5%  
358 0.3% 5%  
359 0.8% 5%  
360 2% 4%  
361 0% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.3%  
366 0.3% 1.3%  
367 0% 1.0%  
368 0.4% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.2% 0.5%  
371 0.2% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.6% 99.6%  
287 0.4% 99.0%  
288 0.4% 98.6%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.1% 98%  
293 2% 98%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 0.6% 95%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.3% 95%  
298 2% 94%  
299 0.5% 92%  
300 0.7% 92%  
301 1.4% 91%  
302 0.9% 90%  
303 0.4% 89%  
304 2% 88%  
305 0.7% 86%  
306 0.3% 85%  
307 6% 85%  
308 0.8% 79%  
309 0.4% 79%  
310 0.2% 78%  
311 0.4% 78%  
312 0.4% 78%  
313 2% 77%  
314 0.1% 75%  
315 6% 75%  
316 3% 69%  
317 0.1% 65%  
318 0.1% 65%  
319 4% 65%  
320 2% 61%  
321 0.3% 59%  
322 3% 58% Median
323 2% 56%  
324 0.2% 53%  
325 8% 53%  
326 0.7% 45% Majority
327 5% 45%  
328 0.1% 39%  
329 10% 39% Last Result
330 0.1% 29%  
331 0.5% 29%  
332 2% 28%  
333 0.7% 26%  
334 0.5% 25%  
335 0.2% 25%  
336 1.2% 24%  
337 0.7% 23%  
338 0.6% 22%  
339 1.3% 22%  
340 0.9% 20%  
341 6% 20%  
342 0.1% 13%  
343 0.3% 13%  
344 0.8% 13%  
345 1.3% 12%  
346 2% 11%  
347 0.2% 9%  
348 0.3% 8%  
349 0.6% 8%  
350 3% 7%  
351 0.8% 5%  
352 0.6% 4%  
353 0.1% 3%  
354 0.3% 3%  
355 0.4% 3%  
356 0.7% 3%  
357 1.3% 2%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0.1% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.5% 99.8%  
258 0.3% 99.3%  
259 0.6% 99.0%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.4% 97%  
266 0.1% 97%  
267 0.9% 97%  
268 0.2% 96%  
269 0.2% 96%  
270 0.1% 96%  
271 6% 96%  
272 0.5% 90%  
273 0.8% 89%  
274 0.3% 88%  
275 1.4% 88%  
276 2% 87%  
277 4% 85%  
278 0.7% 81% Last Result
279 0.5% 81%  
280 1.4% 80%  
281 0.2% 79%  
282 5% 79%  
283 1.4% 74%  
284 0.1% 73%  
285 1.1% 73%  
286 1.0% 72%  
287 0.3% 71%  
288 0.3% 70%  
289 0.4% 70%  
290 3% 70%  
291 0.5% 66%  
292 2% 66%  
293 0.2% 64%  
294 0% 64%  
295 0.1% 64%  
296 1.0% 64%  
297 0.2% 63%  
298 0.3% 62%  
299 0.3% 62%  
300 3% 62%  
301 2% 59% Median
302 2% 57%  
303 0.5% 55%  
304 12% 54%  
305 0.7% 42%  
306 4% 42%  
307 0.3% 38%  
308 1.2% 38%  
309 9% 37%  
310 5% 27%  
311 3% 22%  
312 3% 19%  
313 0.1% 16%  
314 0.2% 16%  
315 0.7% 16%  
316 0.5% 15%  
317 0.2% 15%  
318 0.1% 15%  
319 0.3% 14%  
320 0.2% 14%  
321 1.2% 14%  
322 0.2% 13%  
323 0.3% 13%  
324 1.0% 12%  
325 0.4% 11%  
326 0.4% 11% Majority
327 0.7% 10%  
328 0.1% 10%  
329 0% 10%  
330 0.1% 10%  
331 0.1% 10%  
332 0.1% 10%  
333 0.1% 9%  
334 0.7% 9%  
335 0% 9%  
336 2% 9%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 3% 6%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 1.2% 3%  
342 0.4% 1.3%  
343 0.3% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.8% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 98.9%  
259 0.5% 98.7%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.1% 98%  
262 0% 98%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.8% 97%  
266 0.2% 97%  
267 0.4% 96%  
268 0.2% 96%  
269 0.3% 96%  
270 0.3% 96%  
271 6% 95%  
272 1.2% 89%  
273 0.5% 88%  
274 0.4% 87% Last Result
275 0.4% 87%  
276 4% 86%  
277 1.3% 82%  
278 0.4% 81%  
279 0.1% 80%  
280 1.4% 80%  
281 4% 79%  
282 0.4% 74%  
283 1.5% 74%  
284 0.6% 72%  
285 0.9% 72%  
286 0.6% 71%  
287 0.2% 70%  
288 1.4% 70%  
289 0.3% 69%  
290 2% 68%  
291 2% 66%  
292 0% 64%  
293 0.2% 64%  
294 0.1% 64%  
295 0.3% 63%  
296 0.8% 63%  
297 0.3% 62%  
298 0.3% 62%  
299 2% 62%  
300 3% 60%  
301 2% 57% Median
302 4% 55%  
303 1.1% 51%  
304 9% 50%  
305 3% 42%  
306 2% 39%  
307 0.9% 37%  
308 8% 36%  
309 5% 27%  
310 4% 23%  
311 0.5% 19%  
312 2% 18%  
313 0.2% 16%  
314 0.2% 16%  
315 1.1% 16%  
316 0.1% 15%  
317 0.3% 14%  
318 0.1% 14%  
319 0% 14%  
320 0.2% 14%  
321 1.4% 14%  
322 0.4% 13%  
323 0.3% 12%  
324 0.9% 12%  
325 0.4% 11%  
326 0.7% 11% Majority
327 0.2% 10%  
328 0% 10%  
329 0.1% 10%  
330 0% 10%  
331 0.1% 10%  
332 0.5% 9%  
333 0% 9%  
334 0.4% 9%  
335 2% 9%  
336 0.3% 7%  
337 0.2% 6%  
338 4% 6%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.7% 2%  
341 0.5% 1.4%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.2% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0.1% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 1.3% 99.4%  
275 0.7% 98%  
276 0.5% 97%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 0.8% 96%  
281 3% 95%  
282 0.6% 93%  
283 0.3% 92%  
284 0.2% 92%  
285 2% 91%  
286 2% 89%  
287 0.6% 88%  
288 0.3% 87%  
289 0.3% 87%  
290 6% 86%  
291 1.0% 80%  
292 1.3% 79%  
293 1.1% 78%  
294 0.3% 77%  
295 1.2% 77%  
296 0.2% 76%  
297 0.5% 75%  
298 0.7% 75%  
299 2% 74%  
300 0.4% 72%  
301 0.1% 71% Last Result
302 10% 71%  
303 0.2% 61%  
304 6% 61%  
305 0.2% 55%  
306 8% 55% Median
307 0.1% 47%  
308 3% 47%  
309 2% 44%  
310 0.6% 42%  
311 2% 41%  
312 4% 39%  
313 0.1% 35%  
314 0.2% 35%  
315 3% 34%  
316 6% 31%  
317 0.1% 25%  
318 2% 25%  
319 0.4% 23%  
320 0.4% 22%  
321 0.2% 22%  
322 0.7% 22%  
323 0.8% 21%  
324 5% 20%  
325 0.3% 15%  
326 0.7% 15% Majority
327 2% 14%  
328 0.3% 12%  
329 2% 11%  
330 0.7% 10%  
331 0.7% 9%  
332 0.6% 8%  
333 2% 8%  
334 0.2% 6%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.6% 5%  
337 0.1% 5%  
338 2% 4%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.4% 1.4%  
345 0.6% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0.1% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.3% 99.6%  
273 0.6% 99.3%  
274 1.3% 98.7%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 1.1% 97%  
277 0.1% 96%  
278 0.2% 96%  
279 0% 96%  
280 3% 96%  
281 0.4% 93%  
282 0.7% 92%  
283 0.4% 92%  
284 1.2% 91%  
285 2% 90%  
286 0.6% 88%  
287 0.7% 87%  
288 0.3% 87%  
289 0.8% 86%  
290 6% 86%  
291 0% 79%  
292 1.4% 79%  
293 1.4% 78%  
294 0.5% 76%  
295 0.9% 76%  
296 0.2% 75%  
297 0.2% 75% Last Result
298 2% 75%  
299 2% 73%  
300 0.3% 71%  
301 10% 71%  
302 4% 61%  
303 0.7% 57%  
304 3% 57%  
305 0.4% 54%  
306 7% 53% Median
307 0.1% 46%  
308 3% 46%  
309 2% 43%  
310 1.0% 41%  
311 6% 40%  
312 0.1% 34%  
313 0.5% 34%  
314 4% 34%  
315 2% 30%  
316 3% 27%  
317 0.1% 24%  
318 2% 24%  
319 0.6% 22%  
320 0.6% 22%  
321 0.4% 21%  
322 2% 21%  
323 0.7% 19%  
324 4% 18%  
325 0.7% 15%  
326 2% 14% Majority
327 0.2% 11%  
328 0.8% 11%  
329 1.0% 10%  
330 1.1% 9%  
331 0.9% 8%  
332 0.6% 7%  
333 1.4% 7%  
334 0.4% 6%  
335 0.2% 5%  
336 0.7% 5%  
337 2% 4%  
338 0.5% 3%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.4%  
344 0.5% 1.1%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.2% 99.9%  
261 0.2% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0.4% 99.4%  
264 0% 99.1%  
265 0.3% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 98.7%  
267 0.5% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 2% 98%  
272 0.9% 96%  
273 0.3% 95%  
274 0.2% 95%  
275 0.6% 95%  
276 0.2% 94%  
277 0.6% 94%  
278 1.5% 93%  
279 0.6% 92%  
280 0.2% 91%  
281 1.0% 91%  
282 1.0% 90%  
283 0.7% 89%  
284 3% 88%  
285 2% 85%  
286 3% 83%  
287 2% 80%  
288 0.7% 78%  
289 0.5% 77%  
290 1.0% 77%  
291 1.0% 76%  
292 0.2% 75%  
293 0.1% 75%  
294 0.6% 74%  
295 0.8% 74%  
296 2% 73%  
297 3% 71%  
298 3% 68%  
299 0.3% 65%  
300 0.9% 65%  
301 7% 64% Median
302 6% 57%  
303 4% 50%  
304 0.2% 46%  
305 0.5% 46%  
306 2% 45%  
307 0.9% 43%  
308 2% 42%  
309 3% 40%  
310 9% 37%  
311 1.1% 28%  
312 0.6% 27%  
313 1.4% 26%  
314 2% 25%  
315 0.6% 23%  
316 0.2% 22%  
317 0.1% 22%  
318 0.2% 22%  
319 0.7% 22%  
320 6% 21%  
321 0.3% 14% Last Result
322 0.5% 14%  
323 0.6% 14%  
324 0.4% 13%  
325 0.2% 13%  
326 0.8% 12% Majority
327 0.1% 12%  
328 3% 11%  
329 3% 9%  
330 0.2% 5%  
331 0.1% 5%  
332 0.5% 5%  
333 1.2% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.1% 1.4%  
339 0.4% 1.4%  
340 0.5% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.2% 99.9%  
260 0.2% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.0%  
265 0.3% 98.9%  
266 0% 98.7%  
267 0.5% 98.7%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 2% 98%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.8% 95%  
273 0% 95%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 0.3% 94%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 1.2% 93%  
278 1.0% 92%  
279 0.2% 91%  
280 1.3% 91%  
281 0.9% 90%  
282 0.7% 89%  
283 1.0% 88%  
284 4% 87%  
285 4% 83%  
286 0.1% 80%  
287 3% 80%  
288 0.8% 77%  
289 0.4% 76%  
290 0.6% 76%  
291 0.9% 75%  
292 0.3% 74%  
293 0.2% 74%  
294 0.9% 74%  
295 0.7% 73%  
296 4% 72%  
297 4% 68%  
298 0% 64%  
299 0.4% 64%  
300 0.8% 64%  
301 14% 63% Median
302 3% 49%  
303 0.8% 47%  
304 1.0% 46%  
305 1.0% 45%  
306 1.3% 44%  
307 1.1% 42%  
308 4% 41%  
309 9% 37%  
310 0.6% 28%  
311 0.1% 27%  
312 0.6% 27%  
313 3% 26%  
314 0.9% 23%  
315 0.5% 22%  
316 0.2% 22%  
317 0.6% 22% Last Result
318 0.5% 21%  
319 0.2% 20%  
320 6% 20%  
321 0.4% 14%  
322 0.8% 14%  
323 0.5% 13%  
324 0.4% 13%  
325 0.3% 12%  
326 0.8% 12% Majority
327 1.0% 11%  
328 5% 10%  
329 0.1% 5%  
330 0.8% 5%  
331 0.1% 4%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 1.1% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0% 1.4%  
338 0.5% 1.4%  
339 0.5% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0.1% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.3% 99.8%  
239 0.8% 99.6%  
240 0.1% 98.8%  
241 0.3% 98.7%  
242 0.7% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.2% 97%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0.5% 97%  
248 0.3% 96%  
249 0.9% 96%  
250 6% 95%  
251 0.6% 89%  
252 0.4% 89%  
253 1.0% 88%  
254 1.3% 87%  
255 4% 86%  
256 0.7% 83%  
257 0.1% 82%  
258 0.9% 82%  
259 1.3% 81%  
260 0.2% 80%  
261 0.3% 79%  
262 0.1% 79%  
263 0.8% 79%  
264 4% 78%  
265 0.1% 74%  
266 1.1% 74% Last Result
267 2% 73%  
268 0.4% 71%  
269 0.2% 70%  
270 0.5% 70%  
271 0.6% 70%  
272 4% 69%  
273 0.4% 65%  
274 3% 65%  
275 0.2% 62%  
276 3% 62%  
277 2% 59%  
278 6% 58%  
279 0.9% 52%  
280 7% 51% Median
281 0.4% 44%  
282 0.5% 44%  
283 1.4% 43%  
284 0.5% 42%  
285 0.3% 41%  
286 0.7% 41%  
287 3% 41%  
288 0% 38%  
289 11% 38%  
290 0.1% 26%  
291 4% 26%  
292 6% 22%  
293 0.6% 17%  
294 0.2% 16%  
295 0.5% 16%  
296 1.2% 15%  
297 1.0% 14%  
298 0.8% 13%  
299 1.1% 12%  
300 0.3% 11%  
301 0.1% 11%  
302 0.1% 11%  
303 0.2% 11%  
304 0.2% 10%  
305 0.1% 10%  
306 0.1% 10%  
307 0.1% 10%  
308 0.1% 10%  
309 0.1% 10%  
310 0.4% 10%  
311 0.2% 10%  
312 0% 9%  
313 2% 9%  
314 0.1% 7%  
315 4% 7%  
316 0.6% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.1% 1.4%  
324 0.8% 1.4%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.3% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.8%  
238 0.3% 99.6%  
239 0.7% 99.3%  
240 0.4% 98.6%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 0% 98%  
244 0.2% 97%  
245 0.2% 97%  
246 0.2% 97%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 0.3% 96%  
249 1.0% 96%  
250 7% 95%  
251 0.4% 88%  
252 0.7% 88%  
253 0.4% 87%  
254 3% 87%  
255 1.1% 83%  
256 0.9% 82%  
257 0.5% 81%  
258 0.8% 81%  
259 0.5% 80%  
260 0.3% 79%  
261 0.3% 79%  
262 0.1% 79% Last Result
263 5% 79%  
264 0.3% 74%  
265 0.1% 73%  
266 1.0% 73%  
267 2% 72%  
268 0.8% 71%  
269 0.2% 70%  
270 1.2% 70%  
271 0.8% 68%  
272 3% 68%  
273 0.8% 65%  
274 2% 64%  
275 3% 62%  
276 4% 59%  
277 2% 55%  
278 2% 53%  
279 0.8% 51%  
280 6% 51% Median
281 1.0% 44%  
282 1.3% 43%  
283 0% 42%  
284 0.5% 42%  
285 1.3% 41%  
286 4% 40%  
287 0.1% 36%  
288 8% 36%  
289 2% 28%  
290 3% 26%  
291 4% 23%  
292 2% 19%  
293 0.7% 16%  
294 0.5% 16%  
295 0.9% 15%  
296 0.6% 14%  
297 1.1% 14%  
298 0.7% 13%  
299 0.9% 12%  
300 0.2% 11%  
301 0.1% 11%  
302 0% 11%  
303 0.3% 11%  
304 0.1% 10%  
305 0% 10%  
306 0.1% 10%  
307 0% 10%  
308 0.1% 10%  
309 0.1% 10%  
310 0.4% 10%  
311 0.5% 9%  
312 2% 9%  
313 0.9% 7%  
314 0.3% 6%  
315 4% 6%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0% 2%  
321 0% 2%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0% 1.0%  
324 0.6% 1.0%  
325 0.2% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations