Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 25–26 June 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 42.0% 40.5–43.6% 40.0–44.0% 39.6–44.4% 38.9–45.2%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.0% 35.5–38.6% 35.1–39.0% 34.7–39.4% 34.0–40.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 320 298–334 292–340 290–344 272–351
Labour Party 262 236 225–261 224–264 218–266 209–283
Liberal Democrats 12 17 14–23 12–25 12–26 9–28
Scottish National Party 35 52 45–56 42–57 41–57 36–58
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 2–5 2–5 0–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.5%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.4% 99.1%  
279 0% 98.7%  
280 0% 98.7%  
281 0% 98.7%  
282 0.1% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.5%  
284 0% 98.5%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 4% 97%  
293 1.0% 93%  
294 0.7% 92%  
295 0.5% 91%  
296 0.2% 91%  
297 0.1% 90%  
298 1.4% 90%  
299 0.4% 89%  
300 0.7% 89%  
301 1.2% 88%  
302 0.7% 87%  
303 0.1% 86%  
304 0.2% 86%  
305 2% 86%  
306 0.4% 83%  
307 0% 83%  
308 0.5% 83%  
309 0.2% 82%  
310 1.2% 82%  
311 0.4% 81%  
312 1.0% 81%  
313 4% 79%  
314 1.3% 76%  
315 9% 74%  
316 1.0% 65%  
317 6% 64% Last Result
318 2% 58%  
319 3% 57%  
320 4% 54% Median
321 0.7% 50%  
322 8% 49%  
323 5% 41%  
324 2% 36%  
325 1.0% 34%  
326 3% 33% Majority
327 4% 30%  
328 2% 26%  
329 2% 23%  
330 0.7% 21%  
331 2% 20%  
332 1.3% 19%  
333 5% 17%  
334 3% 13%  
335 0.4% 10%  
336 0.4% 9%  
337 0.7% 9%  
338 2% 8%  
339 0.6% 6%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.4% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.8% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0% 99.6%  
209 0.5% 99.6%  
210 0.1% 99.0%  
211 0% 98.9%  
212 0% 98.9%  
213 0.5% 98.9%  
214 0.3% 98%  
215 0.2% 98%  
216 0.2% 98%  
217 0.1% 98%  
218 1.3% 98%  
219 0.4% 96%  
220 0.1% 96%  
221 0.3% 96%  
222 0.1% 95%  
223 0.2% 95%  
224 4% 95%  
225 6% 91%  
226 3% 84%  
227 3% 81%  
228 2% 78%  
229 2% 76%  
230 0.4% 74%  
231 4% 74%  
232 0.8% 70%  
233 2% 70%  
234 0.2% 68%  
235 3% 68%  
236 17% 64% Median
237 6% 47%  
238 4% 41%  
239 3% 37%  
240 3% 34%  
241 0.8% 31%  
242 1.1% 30%  
243 6% 29%  
244 1.3% 23%  
245 0.4% 22%  
246 2% 21%  
247 1.2% 19%  
248 2% 18%  
249 0.3% 16%  
250 0.3% 15%  
251 0.2% 15%  
252 0% 15%  
253 1.2% 15%  
254 0.6% 14%  
255 0.5% 13%  
256 0.9% 12%  
257 0.7% 12%  
258 0.1% 11%  
259 0.3% 11%  
260 0.2% 10%  
261 2% 10%  
262 3% 8% Last Result
263 0.4% 6%  
264 0.7% 5%  
265 0.2% 5%  
266 3% 5%  
267 0% 2%  
268 0% 2%  
269 0% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.3%  
272 0.1% 1.2%  
273 0.1% 1.2%  
274 0% 1.0%  
275 0% 1.0%  
276 0% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 1.0%  
278 0% 0.9%  
279 0.1% 0.9%  
280 0% 0.8%  
281 0.2% 0.8%  
282 0% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.3% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.2% 99.7%  
9 0.2% 99.6%  
10 0.5% 99.4%  
11 1.0% 98.9%  
12 4% 98% Last Result
13 3% 93%  
14 8% 90%  
15 15% 83%  
16 8% 68%  
17 10% 59% Median
18 4% 49%  
19 3% 45%  
20 11% 42%  
21 10% 32%  
22 8% 22%  
23 5% 14%  
24 2% 9%  
25 3% 6%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.4%  
38 0% 99.4%  
39 0.5% 99.4%  
40 0.6% 98.9%  
41 3% 98%  
42 1.2% 95%  
43 2% 94%  
44 0.1% 92%  
45 2% 92%  
46 2% 90%  
47 7% 88%  
48 5% 81%  
49 8% 76%  
50 2% 68%  
51 12% 66%  
52 8% 54% Median
53 9% 45%  
54 18% 36%  
55 8% 18%  
56 2% 10%  
57 7% 8%  
58 0.7% 0.7%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 9%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0.1% 99.3%  
2 4% 99.2%  
3 15% 95%  
4 29% 80% Last Result
5 48% 51% Median
6 0.4% 2%  
7 0.3% 2%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 377 99.8% 352–390 348–392 344–396 330–408
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 372 99.6% 347–386 345–388 341–392 326–403
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 337 84% 317–354 310–358 307–361 292–370
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 325 49% 303–339 296–344 295–349 276–356
Conservative Party 317 320 33% 298–334 292–340 290–344 272–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 311 17% 296–333 291–339 287–340 280–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 306 14% 292–328 287–335 282–335 275–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 294 2% 277–314 273–321 270–324 261–339
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 289 1.1% 273–310 269–317 265–320 256–335
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 259 0% 245–284 243–286 239–290 228–305
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 254 0% 241–279 239–283 235–286 223–301
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 241 0% 229–264 228–268 222–270 214–288
Labour Party 262 236 0% 225–261 224–264 218–266 209–283

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.3% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.4%  
332 0% 99.2%  
333 0% 99.1%  
334 0% 99.1%  
335 0.1% 99.1%  
336 0% 99.0%  
337 0.3% 99.0%  
338 0% 98.7%  
339 0.2% 98.7%  
340 0.1% 98%  
341 0% 98%  
342 0.1% 98%  
343 0.1% 98%  
344 0.6% 98%  
345 0.3% 97%  
346 0.2% 97%  
347 2% 97%  
348 0.3% 95%  
349 0.3% 95%  
350 4% 95%  
351 0.1% 91%  
352 1.5% 90%  
353 1.2% 89%  
354 0% 88%  
355 0.5% 88%  
356 0.6% 87% Last Result
357 0.3% 87%  
358 0.1% 86%  
359 0.3% 86%  
360 0.3% 86%  
361 2% 86%  
362 0.4% 84%  
363 1.1% 83%  
364 0.2% 82%  
365 0.7% 82%  
366 0.7% 81%  
367 4% 81%  
368 3% 76%  
369 3% 73%  
370 1.3% 71%  
371 4% 70%  
372 0.3% 66%  
373 6% 66%  
374 3% 59%  
375 2% 56%  
376 4% 54%  
377 0.7% 50% Median
378 3% 49%  
379 5% 46%  
380 12% 42%  
381 1.1% 30%  
382 2% 29%  
383 1.1% 27%  
384 3% 26%  
385 6% 24%  
386 2% 18%  
387 0.6% 16%  
388 2% 15%  
389 1.0% 13%  
390 3% 12%  
391 2% 9%  
392 3% 8%  
393 0.7% 5%  
394 0% 4%  
395 2% 4%  
396 0.1% 3%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.2% 2%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.1% 1.5%  
402 0.2% 1.4%  
403 0% 1.2%  
404 0.1% 1.2%  
405 0.2% 1.0%  
406 0.1% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.8%  
408 0.4% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.4% 99.6% Majority
327 0% 99.2%  
328 0% 99.2%  
329 0% 99.2%  
330 0.1% 99.1%  
331 0% 99.0%  
332 0.3% 99.0%  
333 0% 98.7%  
334 0% 98.7%  
335 0.2% 98.6%  
336 0% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0% 98%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 0.1% 98%  
341 0.8% 98%  
342 0.3% 97%  
343 2% 97%  
344 0.1% 95%  
345 0.2% 95%  
346 4% 95%  
347 1.1% 91%  
348 1.4% 90%  
349 0.4% 88%  
350 0.4% 88%  
351 0.2% 87%  
352 0.4% 87% Last Result
353 0.3% 87%  
354 0.3% 86%  
355 0.3% 86%  
356 0.7% 86%  
357 1.4% 85%  
358 1.3% 84%  
359 0.3% 82%  
360 0.1% 82%  
361 0.7% 82%  
362 0.7% 81%  
363 0.5% 81%  
364 7% 80%  
365 0.3% 74%  
366 3% 73%  
367 4% 70%  
368 5% 66%  
369 3% 61%  
370 4% 58%  
371 4% 55%  
372 0.5% 50% Median
373 0.2% 50%  
374 6% 50%  
375 7% 43%  
376 7% 36%  
377 1.3% 29%  
378 2% 28%  
379 0.8% 26%  
380 3% 25%  
381 6% 22%  
382 0.6% 16%  
383 0.7% 15%  
384 1.2% 15%  
385 1.4% 13%  
386 2% 12%  
387 5% 10%  
388 0.7% 5%  
389 0.2% 4%  
390 0.4% 4%  
391 1.1% 4%  
392 0.3% 3%  
393 0.3% 2%  
394 0.3% 2%  
395 0.1% 2%  
396 0% 2%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0% 1.4%  
399 0.3% 1.4%  
400 0.2% 1.1%  
401 0.1% 0.9%  
402 0.1% 0.8%  
403 0.4% 0.7%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.2% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.5%  
291 0% 99.5%  
292 0% 99.5%  
293 0% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0% 99.4%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.1%  
298 0% 99.1%  
299 0.1% 99.1%  
300 0% 99.0%  
301 0% 98.9%  
302 0.3% 98.9%  
303 0% 98.6%  
304 0.2% 98.6%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 3% 98%  
308 0.1% 95%  
309 0% 95%  
310 0.9% 95%  
311 0.3% 94%  
312 0.2% 94%  
313 0.3% 94%  
314 2% 93%  
315 0.2% 91%  
316 0.9% 91%  
317 1.1% 90%  
318 0.2% 89%  
319 0.2% 89%  
320 0.4% 89%  
321 1.4% 88%  
322 0.1% 87%  
323 1.0% 87%  
324 0.3% 86%  
325 1.2% 86%  
326 1.2% 84% Majority
327 2% 83%  
328 0.4% 81%  
329 3% 81% Last Result
330 0.5% 78%  
331 2% 78%  
332 4% 76%  
333 4% 72%  
334 2% 68%  
335 4% 66%  
336 6% 62%  
337 7% 56% Median
338 3% 49%  
339 4% 46%  
340 1.1% 42%  
341 1.3% 41%  
342 1.0% 40%  
343 6% 39%  
344 3% 33%  
345 2% 30%  
346 4% 28%  
347 2% 24%  
348 4% 22%  
349 2% 18%  
350 3% 16%  
351 0.5% 13%  
352 0.4% 12%  
353 2% 12%  
354 3% 10%  
355 0.2% 7%  
356 0.5% 7%  
357 0.3% 7%  
358 1.5% 6%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 0.3% 4%  
361 2% 4%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.2%  
366 0.1% 1.1%  
367 0.1% 1.0%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0.2% 0.6%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.3% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.4%  
281 0% 99.3%  
282 0.2% 99.3%  
283 0.4% 99.1%  
284 0% 98.7%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0% 98.6%  
287 0.1% 98.6%  
288 0% 98.5%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.1% 98%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 5% 97%  
297 0.3% 92%  
298 1.1% 92%  
299 0.4% 91%  
300 0.3% 91%  
301 0% 90%  
302 0.1% 90%  
303 2% 90%  
304 0.4% 88%  
305 2% 88%  
306 0.2% 86%  
307 0.3% 86%  
308 0.1% 86%  
309 2% 86%  
310 0.6% 84%  
311 0.8% 83%  
312 0.1% 82%  
313 0.2% 82%  
314 0.1% 82%  
315 1.3% 82%  
316 0.5% 81%  
317 4% 80%  
318 7% 76%  
319 2% 70%  
320 4% 68%  
321 1.1% 63% Last Result
322 5% 62%  
323 4% 57%  
324 4% 54%  
325 1.0% 50% Median
326 6% 49% Majority
327 3% 43%  
328 6% 40%  
329 0.4% 34%  
330 2% 34%  
331 3% 32%  
332 5% 29%  
333 2% 24%  
334 0.7% 22%  
335 3% 21%  
336 1.0% 19%  
337 2% 18%  
338 6% 16%  
339 1.0% 10%  
340 1.0% 9%  
341 0.4% 8%  
342 1.3% 8%  
343 0.7% 7%  
344 1.2% 6%  
345 0.4% 5%  
346 0.4% 4%  
347 1.2% 4%  
348 0.1% 3%  
349 0.6% 3%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.1% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.2% 1.5%  
354 0.2% 1.3%  
355 0.6% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.2% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.5%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.4% 99.1%  
279 0% 98.7%  
280 0% 98.7%  
281 0% 98.7%  
282 0.1% 98.6%  
283 0% 98.5%  
284 0% 98.5%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0% 98%  
288 0% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 4% 97%  
293 1.0% 93%  
294 0.7% 92%  
295 0.5% 91%  
296 0.2% 91%  
297 0.1% 90%  
298 1.4% 90%  
299 0.4% 89%  
300 0.7% 89%  
301 1.2% 88%  
302 0.7% 87%  
303 0.1% 86%  
304 0.2% 86%  
305 2% 86%  
306 0.4% 83%  
307 0% 83%  
308 0.5% 83%  
309 0.2% 82%  
310 1.2% 82%  
311 0.4% 81%  
312 1.0% 81%  
313 4% 79%  
314 1.3% 76%  
315 9% 74%  
316 1.0% 65%  
317 6% 64% Last Result
318 2% 58%  
319 3% 57%  
320 4% 54% Median
321 0.7% 50%  
322 8% 49%  
323 5% 41%  
324 2% 36%  
325 1.0% 34%  
326 3% 33% Majority
327 4% 30%  
328 2% 26%  
329 2% 23%  
330 0.7% 21%  
331 2% 20%  
332 1.3% 19%  
333 5% 17%  
334 3% 13%  
335 0.4% 10%  
336 0.4% 9%  
337 0.7% 9%  
338 2% 8%  
339 0.6% 6%  
340 2% 6%  
341 0.4% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.8% 1.3%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.6%  
278 0% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.9% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 98.6%  
283 0% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.7% 98%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 0.4% 96%  
291 2% 96%  
292 0.6% 94%  
293 2% 94%  
294 0.7% 92%  
295 0.4% 91%  
296 0.9% 91%  
297 3% 90%  
298 5% 87%  
299 1.4% 82%  
300 1.4% 81%  
301 0.9% 80%  
302 2% 79%  
303 2% 76%  
304 4% 74%  
305 3% 70%  
306 0.9% 67%  
307 2% 66%  
308 6% 64%  
309 7% 58%  
310 0.5% 51% Median
311 6% 50%  
312 1.4% 45%  
313 2% 43% Last Result
314 6% 42%  
315 0.7% 35%  
316 9% 35%  
317 2% 26%  
318 4% 24%  
319 0.8% 20%  
320 0.5% 19%  
321 1.0% 19%  
322 0.3% 18%  
323 0.4% 18%  
324 0% 17%  
325 0.5% 17%  
326 2% 17% Majority
327 0.2% 14%  
328 0.2% 14%  
329 0.6% 14%  
330 1.4% 13%  
331 0.5% 12%  
332 0.5% 11%  
333 1.3% 11%  
334 0.1% 10%  
335 0.2% 10%  
336 0.5% 9%  
337 1.0% 9%  
338 0.7% 8%  
339 5% 7%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0% 2%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0% 2%  
348 0% 1.5%  
349 0.1% 1.5%  
350 0% 1.4%  
351 0% 1.3%  
352 0% 1.3%  
353 0.4% 1.3%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.7% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 98.8%  
278 0.2% 98.7%  
279 0.2% 98.5%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 1.2% 97%  
285 0.4% 96%  
286 0.4% 96%  
287 1.2% 95%  
288 0.8% 94%  
289 1.3% 93%  
290 0.4% 92%  
291 1.3% 92%  
292 0.9% 90%  
293 5% 89%  
294 2% 84%  
295 0.8% 82%  
296 3% 81%  
297 0.7% 79%  
298 2% 78%  
299 4% 76%  
300 4% 71%  
301 2% 68%  
302 0.5% 66%  
303 7% 65%  
304 2% 59%  
305 6% 57% Median
306 1.1% 51%  
307 5% 50%  
308 2% 45%  
309 5% 43% Last Result
310 1.1% 38%  
311 5% 36%  
312 2% 32%  
313 7% 30%  
314 3% 23%  
315 0.7% 20%  
316 1.0% 19%  
317 0.1% 18%  
318 0.2% 18%  
319 0.3% 18%  
320 0.6% 17%  
321 0.8% 17%  
322 2% 16%  
323 0.1% 14%  
324 0.5% 14%  
325 0.2% 14%  
326 2% 14% Majority
327 0.5% 12%  
328 2% 11%  
329 0.1% 10%  
330 0% 10%  
331 0.3% 10%  
332 0.5% 9%  
333 1.2% 9%  
334 0% 8%  
335 5% 8%  
336 0.1% 2%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0% 2%  
343 0% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.5%  
345 0% 1.4%  
346 0.1% 1.4%  
347 0% 1.3%  
348 0.3% 1.3%  
349 0.2% 0.9%  
350 0% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.5%  
355 0.2% 0.5%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0% 98.9%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0.5% 98.8%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 2% 98%  
271 0.2% 96%  
272 0.5% 96%  
273 1.5% 95%  
274 0.3% 94%  
275 0.6% 93%  
276 0.2% 93%  
277 3% 93%  
278 2% 90%  
279 0.7% 88%  
280 0.2% 87%  
281 3% 87%  
282 2% 84%  
283 4% 82%  
284 2% 78%  
285 4% 76%  
286 3% 72%  
287 3% 70%  
288 5% 67%  
289 0.9% 61%  
290 1.5% 60%  
291 1.0% 59%  
292 4% 58%  
293 3% 54% Median
294 8% 51%  
295 5% 43%  
296 4% 38%  
297 2% 34%  
298 4% 32%  
299 5% 28%  
300 0.3% 22%  
301 0.5% 22% Last Result
302 3% 22%  
303 0.4% 19%  
304 2% 18%  
305 1.5% 17%  
306 1.2% 15%  
307 0.1% 14%  
308 1.0% 14%  
309 0% 13%  
310 1.4% 13%  
311 0.5% 12%  
312 0% 11%  
313 0.2% 11%  
314 1.3% 11%  
315 0.6% 10%  
316 0.2% 9%  
317 2% 9%  
318 0.3% 7%  
319 0.4% 6%  
320 0.2% 6%  
321 0.8% 6%  
322 0% 5%  
323 0.4% 5%  
324 3% 5%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0% 1.4%  
329 0.3% 1.4%  
330 0% 1.1%  
331 0% 1.1%  
332 0.1% 1.0%  
333 0% 0.9%  
334 0% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.9%  
336 0% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0% 0.5%  
339 0% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.5%  
342 0.2% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0.1% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0% 99.4%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0.3% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.1% 98.9%  
262 0.5% 98.8%  
263 0.1% 98%  
264 0% 98%  
265 1.3% 98%  
266 1.0% 97%  
267 0.6% 96%  
268 0.2% 95%  
269 2% 95%  
270 0.4% 93%  
271 0.2% 93%  
272 3% 93%  
273 0.9% 90%  
274 1.5% 89%  
275 0.6% 88%  
276 0.3% 87%  
277 2% 87%  
278 6% 85%  
279 1.0% 80%  
280 6% 79%  
281 2% 73%  
282 4% 71%  
283 2% 67%  
284 4% 66%  
285 2% 62%  
286 2% 60%  
287 4% 58%  
288 3% 54% Median
289 2% 51%  
290 6% 49%  
291 5% 43%  
292 6% 38%  
293 4% 32%  
294 1.4% 28%  
295 2% 27%  
296 0.4% 25%  
297 5% 24% Last Result
298 0.4% 19%  
299 0.4% 19%  
300 2% 18%  
301 2% 17%  
302 0.8% 15%  
303 1.0% 14%  
304 0.1% 13%  
305 0.1% 13%  
306 1.4% 13%  
307 0.1% 12%  
308 0.5% 11%  
309 0.7% 11%  
310 1.1% 10%  
311 0.1% 9%  
312 0.2% 9%  
313 2% 9%  
314 0.3% 7%  
315 0.2% 6%  
316 1.0% 6%  
317 0.2% 5%  
318 0.1% 5%  
319 0% 5%  
320 3% 5%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.5%  
325 0% 1.1%  
326 0% 1.1% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0% 1.0%  
329 0% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.9%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.5%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0.2% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.7%  
228 0.4% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.3%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0.3% 98.9%  
233 0% 98.6%  
234 0.2% 98.6%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.3% 98%  
238 0.3% 98%  
239 0.3% 98%  
240 1.2% 97%  
241 0.4% 96%  
242 0.2% 96%  
243 0.9% 96%  
244 5% 95%  
245 2% 90%  
246 1.3% 88%  
247 2% 87%  
248 0.6% 85%  
249 0.5% 85%  
250 6% 84%  
251 3% 78%  
252 0.8% 75%  
253 2% 74%  
254 2% 72%  
255 8% 71%  
256 8% 63%  
257 5% 55%  
258 0.1% 50% Median
259 0.6% 50%  
260 4% 50%  
261 3% 45%  
262 3% 42%  
263 5% 39%  
264 4% 34%  
265 3% 29%  
266 0.9% 27%  
267 6% 26%  
268 0.9% 20%  
269 0.2% 19%  
270 0.7% 19%  
271 0.1% 18%  
272 0.3% 18%  
273 1.3% 18%  
274 2% 16%  
275 0.6% 15%  
276 0.3% 14%  
277 0.3% 14%  
278 0.4% 13% Last Result
279 0.3% 13%  
280 0.2% 13%  
281 0.4% 13%  
282 0.7% 12%  
283 1.1% 12%  
284 1.1% 10%  
285 4% 9%  
286 0.2% 5%  
287 0% 5%  
288 2% 5%  
289 0.2% 3%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0% 2%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0% 1.4%  
298 0% 1.3%  
299 0.3% 1.3%  
300 0% 1.0%  
301 0.1% 1.0%  
302 0% 0.9%  
303 0% 0.8%  
304 0% 0.8%  
305 0.4% 0.8%  
306 0.1% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.2%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.4% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.3%  
225 0.1% 99.2%  
226 0.2% 99.1%  
227 0.1% 99.0%  
228 0% 98.8%  
229 0.2% 98.8%  
230 0.2% 98.6%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.2% 98%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 2% 97%  
237 0.1% 96%  
238 0.8% 96%  
239 3% 95%  
240 2% 92%  
241 3% 91%  
242 1.3% 88%  
243 1.3% 86%  
244 0.7% 85%  
245 2% 84%  
246 6% 82%  
247 3% 76%  
248 1.1% 74%  
249 2% 72%  
250 2% 71%  
251 11% 69%  
252 6% 58%  
253 1.3% 52% Median
254 0.8% 51%  
255 4% 50%  
256 2% 46%  
257 3% 44%  
258 6% 41%  
259 0.4% 34%  
260 4% 34%  
261 2% 30%  
262 2% 29%  
263 3% 26%  
264 4% 23%  
265 0.8% 19%  
266 0.4% 18%  
267 0.3% 18%  
268 1.0% 18%  
269 0.4% 17%  
270 2% 16%  
271 0.2% 14%  
272 0.3% 14%  
273 0.1% 14%  
274 0.4% 14% Last Result
275 0.5% 13%  
276 0.5% 13%  
277 0.1% 12%  
278 1.4% 12%  
279 1.2% 11%  
280 0.3% 10%  
281 4% 9%  
282 0.2% 5%  
283 0.3% 5%  
284 2% 5%  
285 0.3% 3%  
286 0.1% 3%  
287 0.6% 2%  
288 0.1% 2%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0% 2%  
291 0.2% 2%  
292 0.2% 2%  
293 0% 1.3%  
294 0.3% 1.3%  
295 0% 1.0%  
296 0.1% 1.0%  
297 0% 0.9%  
298 0% 0.9%  
299 0% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.8%  
301 0.3% 0.6%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
205 0% 100%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.9%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.5% 99.5%  
215 0.1% 99.0%  
216 0.2% 98.9%  
217 0.2% 98.7%  
218 0.5% 98.6%  
219 0.2% 98%  
220 0.1% 98%  
221 0.2% 98%  
222 1.2% 98%  
223 0.3% 96%  
224 0.4% 96%  
225 0% 96%  
226 0% 96%  
227 0.1% 96%  
228 2% 96%  
229 7% 94%  
230 5% 86%  
231 2% 81%  
232 1.3% 79%  
233 3% 78%  
234 0.7% 75%  
235 2% 74%  
236 2% 72%  
237 2% 70%  
238 0.5% 68%  
239 0.5% 68%  
240 10% 67%  
241 17% 58% Median
242 2% 41%  
243 3% 38%  
244 4% 36%  
245 0.7% 31%  
246 4% 31%  
247 1.0% 27%  
248 5% 26%  
249 1.1% 20%  
250 0.4% 19%  
251 0.4% 19%  
252 2% 18%  
253 0.7% 16%  
254 0.2% 15%  
255 0% 15%  
256 0.2% 15%  
257 0.3% 15%  
258 1.4% 14%  
259 0.6% 13%  
260 0.2% 12%  
261 1.0% 12%  
262 0.4% 11%  
263 0.2% 11%  
264 0.8% 11%  
265 1.3% 10%  
266 2% 9% Last Result
267 1.2% 6%  
268 0.4% 5%  
269 0% 5%  
270 3% 5%  
271 0% 2%  
272 0% 2%  
273 0% 2%  
274 0.1% 2%  
275 0.5% 2%  
276 0.1% 1.1%  
277 0% 1.1%  
278 0% 1.0%  
279 0% 1.0%  
280 0% 1.0%  
281 0% 1.0%  
282 0.1% 1.0%  
283 0% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.8%  
285 0% 0.8%  
286 0.2% 0.7%  
287 0% 0.5%  
288 0.3% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0% 99.6%  
209 0.5% 99.6%  
210 0.1% 99.0%  
211 0% 98.9%  
212 0% 98.9%  
213 0.5% 98.9%  
214 0.3% 98%  
215 0.2% 98%  
216 0.2% 98%  
217 0.1% 98%  
218 1.3% 98%  
219 0.4% 96%  
220 0.1% 96%  
221 0.3% 96%  
222 0.1% 95%  
223 0.2% 95%  
224 4% 95%  
225 6% 91%  
226 3% 84%  
227 3% 81%  
228 2% 78%  
229 2% 76%  
230 0.4% 74%  
231 4% 74%  
232 0.8% 70%  
233 2% 70%  
234 0.2% 68%  
235 3% 68%  
236 17% 64% Median
237 6% 47%  
238 4% 41%  
239 3% 37%  
240 3% 34%  
241 0.8% 31%  
242 1.1% 30%  
243 6% 29%  
244 1.3% 23%  
245 0.4% 22%  
246 2% 21%  
247 1.2% 19%  
248 2% 18%  
249 0.3% 16%  
250 0.3% 15%  
251 0.2% 15%  
252 0% 15%  
253 1.2% 15%  
254 0.6% 14%  
255 0.5% 13%  
256 0.9% 12%  
257 0.7% 12%  
258 0.1% 11%  
259 0.3% 11%  
260 0.2% 10%  
261 2% 10%  
262 3% 8% Last Result
263 0.4% 6%  
264 0.7% 5%  
265 0.2% 5%  
266 3% 5%  
267 0% 2%  
268 0% 2%  
269 0% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.3%  
272 0.1% 1.2%  
273 0.1% 1.2%  
274 0% 1.0%  
275 0% 1.0%  
276 0% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 1.0%  
278 0% 0.9%  
279 0.1% 0.9%  
280 0% 0.8%  
281 0.2% 0.8%  
282 0% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.6%  
284 0.3% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations