Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 3–5 July 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
40.1% |
38.5–41.7% |
38.0–42.2% |
37.7–42.6% |
36.9–43.4% |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
38.1% |
36.5–39.7% |
36.0–40.1% |
35.6–40.5% |
34.9–41.3% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
10.3% |
9.3–11.3% |
9.1–11.6% |
8.8–11.9% |
8.4–12.4% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
4.1% |
3.5–4.8% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.2% |
2.9–5.6% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
3.1% |
2.6–3.8% |
2.5–3.9% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.5% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
3.1% |
2.6–3.8% |
2.5–3.9% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.5% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.5% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
259 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
262 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
263 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
269 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
271 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
274 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
275 |
3% |
94% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
277 |
3% |
90% |
|
278 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
279 |
0% |
87% |
|
280 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
281 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
285 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
84% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
84% |
|
290 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
82% |
|
292 |
0.7% |
82% |
|
293 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
294 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
79% |
|
296 |
3% |
79% |
|
297 |
5% |
76% |
|
298 |
3% |
71% |
|
299 |
2% |
68% |
|
300 |
1.2% |
65% |
|
301 |
0.6% |
64% |
|
302 |
0.4% |
64% |
|
303 |
2% |
63% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
61% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
61% |
|
306 |
3% |
59% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
308 |
1.1% |
56% |
|
309 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
53% |
|
315 |
1.1% |
52% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
51% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
318 |
0.2% |
50% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
50% |
|
320 |
10% |
49% |
|
321 |
7% |
39% |
|
322 |
14% |
32% |
|
323 |
3% |
18% |
|
324 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
325 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
13% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
329 |
2% |
12% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
331 |
2% |
10% |
|
332 |
2% |
7% |
|
333 |
3% |
6% |
|
334 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
219 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
224 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
229 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
230 |
2% |
97% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
232 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
233 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
236 |
2% |
92% |
|
237 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
238 |
6% |
90% |
|
239 |
9% |
83% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
74% |
|
241 |
3% |
74% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
71% |
|
243 |
3% |
71% |
|
244 |
5% |
68% |
|
245 |
2% |
63% |
|
246 |
0.2% |
61% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
249 |
0.6% |
59% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
251 |
1.1% |
58% |
|
252 |
1.4% |
57% |
|
253 |
2% |
56% |
|
254 |
4% |
54% |
Median |
255 |
4% |
49% |
|
256 |
0.3% |
46% |
|
257 |
2% |
45% |
|
258 |
0.7% |
43% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
260 |
4% |
42% |
|
261 |
1.1% |
38% |
|
262 |
0.5% |
37% |
Last Result |
263 |
5% |
36% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
266 |
3% |
31% |
|
267 |
2% |
28% |
|
268 |
2% |
25% |
|
269 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
270 |
0.6% |
23% |
|
271 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
272 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
274 |
2% |
21% |
|
275 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
277 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
279 |
2% |
16% |
|
280 |
2% |
14% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
282 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
283 |
3% |
11% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
290 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
295 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
296 |
2% |
5% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
298 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
302 |
0% |
2% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
304 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
305 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
306 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
99.2% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
20 |
2% |
98% |
|
21 |
9% |
96% |
|
22 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
23 |
9% |
86% |
|
24 |
3% |
77% |
|
25 |
34% |
74% |
Median |
26 |
11% |
40% |
|
27 |
19% |
29% |
|
28 |
8% |
10% |
|
29 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
5% |
6% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
9 |
1.0% |
98.8% |
|
10 |
0% |
98% |
|
11 |
0% |
98% |
|
12 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
13 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
14 |
2% |
96% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
94% |
|
18 |
0% |
94% |
|
19 |
5% |
94% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
21 |
2% |
88% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
23 |
2% |
85% |
|
24 |
2% |
83% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
81% |
|
26 |
6% |
81% |
|
27 |
2% |
76% |
|
28 |
0.9% |
74% |
|
29 |
0.7% |
73% |
|
30 |
0.6% |
72% |
|
31 |
1.1% |
72% |
|
32 |
2% |
70% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
68% |
|
34 |
0% |
68% |
|
35 |
2% |
68% |
Last Result |
36 |
1.2% |
66% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
65% |
|
38 |
7% |
64% |
|
39 |
9% |
57% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
47% |
|
41 |
7% |
30% |
|
42 |
4% |
24% |
|
43 |
0.2% |
19% |
|
44 |
2% |
19% |
|
45 |
5% |
17% |
|
46 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
47 |
3% |
11% |
|
48 |
3% |
8% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
50 |
3% |
5% |
|
51 |
2% |
2% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
16% |
16% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
3 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
5% |
97% |
Last Result |
5 |
71% |
92% |
Median |
6 |
5% |
21% |
|
7 |
2% |
16% |
|
8 |
13% |
14% |
|
9 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
10 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
352 |
84% |
322–369 |
309–377 |
306–380 |
292–385 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
347 |
80% |
317–364 |
304–372 |
300–374 |
287–377 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
313 |
41% |
301–354 |
298–357 |
297–362 |
290–372 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
342 |
65% |
302–353 |
300–356 |
294–357 |
284–364 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
308 |
32% |
295–347 |
292–352 |
291–357 |
284–367 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
323 |
39% |
284–335 |
279–339 |
273–340 |
264–346 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
288 |
14% |
277–328 |
275–331 |
274–336 |
267–347 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
317 |
13% |
277–330 |
274–333 |
267–333 |
259–340 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
283 |
6% |
272–322 |
270–326 |
267–331 |
261–342 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
284 |
5% |
266–314 |
259–326 |
257–331 |
253–344 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
279 |
2% |
261–309 |
254–322 |
251–325 |
246–338 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
259 |
0.1% |
242–288 |
236–300 |
234–303 |
231–317 |
Labour Party |
262 |
254 |
0% |
237–283 |
230–295 |
229–298 |
224–311 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
290 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
291 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
299 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
300 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
305 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
308 |
2% |
97% |
|
309 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
310 |
0% |
95% |
|
311 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
312 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
93% |
|
316 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
317 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
92% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
320 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
91% |
|
322 |
1.4% |
91% |
|
323 |
2% |
90% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
88% |
|
325 |
4% |
88% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
84% |
Majority |
327 |
1.4% |
84% |
|
328 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
82% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
81% |
|
331 |
1.5% |
81% |
|
332 |
0.7% |
80% |
|
333 |
0.2% |
79% |
|
334 |
0.7% |
79% |
|
335 |
0.2% |
78% |
|
336 |
2% |
78% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
76% |
|
338 |
2% |
76% |
|
339 |
5% |
74% |
|
340 |
4% |
69% |
|
341 |
0.2% |
65% |
|
342 |
0.9% |
65% |
|
343 |
1.5% |
64% |
|
344 |
4% |
63% |
|
345 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
346 |
0.7% |
58% |
|
347 |
0.5% |
58% |
|
348 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
349 |
3% |
57% |
|
350 |
0% |
53% |
|
351 |
2% |
53% |
|
352 |
6% |
52% |
|
353 |
2% |
46% |
|
354 |
2% |
44% |
|
355 |
1.0% |
42% |
|
356 |
0.3% |
41% |
Last Result |
357 |
0% |
41% |
|
358 |
0.4% |
41% |
|
359 |
2% |
40% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
38% |
|
361 |
0.4% |
38% |
Median |
362 |
1.0% |
38% |
|
363 |
2% |
37% |
|
364 |
5% |
35% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
30% |
|
367 |
13% |
30% |
|
368 |
4% |
17% |
|
369 |
3% |
13% |
|
370 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
371 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
372 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
373 |
2% |
9% |
|
374 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
375 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
376 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
377 |
2% |
6% |
|
378 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
379 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
380 |
2% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
385 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
390 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
391 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
393 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
394 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
277 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
278 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
288 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
289 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
292 |
0% |
99.1% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
294 |
0% |
98.6% |
|
295 |
0% |
98.6% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
98.5% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
301 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
303 |
2% |
97% |
|
304 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
305 |
0% |
95% |
|
306 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
309 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
93% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
93% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
92% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
315 |
0.9% |
91% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
317 |
3% |
90% |
|
318 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
320 |
2% |
86% |
|
321 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
322 |
2% |
84% |
|
323 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
324 |
0.8% |
82% |
|
325 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
326 |
0.2% |
80% |
Majority |
327 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
328 |
1.1% |
79% |
|
329 |
0.7% |
78% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
77% |
|
331 |
0.9% |
77% |
|
332 |
1.0% |
76% |
|
333 |
2% |
75% |
|
334 |
6% |
73% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
67% |
|
336 |
2% |
67% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
64% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
64% |
|
339 |
6% |
64% |
|
340 |
0.7% |
59% |
|
341 |
1.1% |
58% |
|
342 |
0.5% |
57% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
56% |
|
344 |
3% |
56% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
346 |
2% |
53% |
|
347 |
5% |
51% |
|
348 |
2% |
45% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
43% |
|
350 |
2% |
43% |
|
351 |
0.2% |
41% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
41% |
Last Result |
353 |
0.4% |
40% |
|
354 |
2% |
40% |
|
355 |
2% |
38% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
36% |
Median |
357 |
0.9% |
36% |
|
358 |
1.1% |
36% |
|
359 |
4% |
34% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
30% |
|
361 |
0.3% |
30% |
|
362 |
13% |
30% |
|
363 |
4% |
17% |
|
364 |
3% |
13% |
|
365 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
366 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
367 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
368 |
2% |
8% |
|
369 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
370 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
371 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
372 |
2% |
5% |
|
373 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
374 |
2% |
3% |
|
375 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
376 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
377 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
379 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
380 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
381 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
382 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
383 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
384 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
385 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
386 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
387 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
388 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
286 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
288 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
293 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
294 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
295 |
0.2% |
99.1% |
|
296 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
297 |
1.1% |
98.5% |
|
298 |
3% |
97% |
|
299 |
2% |
94% |
|
300 |
2% |
92% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
302 |
2% |
90% |
|
303 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
87% |
|
306 |
2% |
86% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
308 |
3% |
85% |
|
309 |
13% |
82% |
|
310 |
8% |
68% |
|
311 |
9% |
60% |
|
312 |
0.6% |
51% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
50% |
Last Result |
314 |
1.1% |
50% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
49% |
|
316 |
2% |
49% |
|
317 |
0.4% |
47% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
47% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
46% |
|
321 |
1.0% |
46% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
45% |
|
323 |
1.1% |
45% |
Median |
324 |
0.1% |
44% |
|
325 |
3% |
43% |
|
326 |
1.4% |
41% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
39% |
|
328 |
2% |
39% |
|
329 |
0.5% |
37% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
36% |
|
331 |
2% |
36% |
|
332 |
2% |
33% |
|
333 |
3% |
32% |
|
334 |
5% |
29% |
|
335 |
3% |
24% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
337 |
2% |
21% |
|
338 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
18% |
|
340 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
341 |
0.6% |
16% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
346 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
349 |
0.4% |
15% |
|
350 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
351 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
352 |
0.2% |
13% |
|
353 |
0.4% |
13% |
|
354 |
3% |
13% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
356 |
4% |
9% |
|
357 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
358 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
359 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
362 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
363 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
368 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
369 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
370 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
371 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
372 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
373 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
374 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
375 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
379 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
380 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
281 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
285 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
288 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
290 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
291 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
294 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
295 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
296 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
297 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
298 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
299 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
300 |
2% |
95% |
|
301 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
302 |
2% |
92% |
|
303 |
0.7% |
90% |
|
304 |
3% |
89% |
|
305 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
307 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
308 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
84% |
|
313 |
0% |
84% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
315 |
1.0% |
84% |
|
316 |
0.4% |
83% |
|
317 |
0.5% |
83% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
82% |
|
319 |
0.5% |
82% |
|
320 |
3% |
81% |
|
321 |
1.4% |
79% |
|
322 |
3% |
77% |
|
323 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
324 |
3% |
73% |
|
325 |
6% |
70% |
|
326 |
0.9% |
65% |
Majority |
327 |
2% |
64% |
|
328 |
3% |
62% |
|
329 |
0.3% |
59% |
Last Result |
330 |
0.1% |
59% |
|
331 |
3% |
59% |
|
332 |
0.6% |
56% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
55% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
55% |
|
335 |
0.9% |
55% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
337 |
0.3% |
54% |
|
338 |
0.6% |
54% |
|
339 |
0.8% |
53% |
|
340 |
1.3% |
52% |
|
341 |
0.6% |
51% |
|
342 |
0.5% |
50% |
Median |
343 |
8% |
50% |
|
344 |
0.8% |
42% |
|
345 |
2% |
41% |
|
346 |
7% |
39% |
|
347 |
13% |
32% |
|
348 |
1.2% |
19% |
|
349 |
3% |
18% |
|
350 |
3% |
15% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
11% |
|
353 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
354 |
4% |
10% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
356 |
3% |
6% |
|
357 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
358 |
0% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
360 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
369 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
370 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
373 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
276 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
277 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
278 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
279 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
280 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
283 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
284 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
285 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
287 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
290 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
291 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
292 |
2% |
97% |
|
293 |
2% |
95% |
|
294 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
295 |
2% |
92% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
90% |
|
297 |
2% |
89% |
|
298 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
300 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
301 |
2% |
86% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
303 |
3% |
85% |
|
304 |
13% |
81% |
|
305 |
8% |
68% |
|
306 |
9% |
60% |
|
307 |
0.9% |
51% |
|
308 |
0.5% |
50% |
|
309 |
1.4% |
49% |
Last Result |
310 |
0.1% |
48% |
|
311 |
1.3% |
48% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
47% |
|
313 |
0.2% |
47% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
46% |
|
315 |
0.6% |
46% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
46% |
|
317 |
0.2% |
45% |
|
318 |
1.1% |
45% |
Median |
319 |
0.3% |
44% |
|
320 |
3% |
43% |
|
321 |
1.2% |
40% |
|
322 |
0.8% |
39% |
|
323 |
5% |
38% |
|
324 |
0.6% |
34% |
|
325 |
0.5% |
33% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
32% |
Majority |
327 |
1.0% |
32% |
|
328 |
2% |
31% |
|
329 |
3% |
30% |
|
330 |
5% |
26% |
|
331 |
2% |
21% |
|
332 |
2% |
19% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
17% |
|
334 |
0.6% |
17% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
16% |
|
336 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
338 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
339 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
345 |
0.6% |
14% |
|
346 |
3% |
14% |
|
347 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
349 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
350 |
2% |
9% |
|
351 |
2% |
8% |
|
352 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
353 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
354 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
355 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
357 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
358 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
360 |
0% |
2% |
|
361 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
362 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
363 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
364 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
365 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
367 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
373 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
258 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
259 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
264 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
267 |
0.4% |
98.9% |
|
268 |
0.3% |
98.5% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
274 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
276 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
277 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
278 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
279 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
280 |
2% |
94% |
|
281 |
2% |
92% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
90% |
|
283 |
0.2% |
90% |
|
284 |
0.8% |
90% |
|
285 |
3% |
89% |
|
286 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
287 |
0.1% |
86% |
|
288 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
290 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
292 |
0.2% |
85% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
84% |
|
296 |
0.6% |
84% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
83% |
|
298 |
1.0% |
83% |
|
299 |
1.4% |
82% |
|
300 |
2% |
80% |
|
301 |
7% |
79% |
|
302 |
2% |
72% |
|
303 |
2% |
70% |
|
304 |
0.8% |
68% |
|
305 |
0.5% |
68% |
|
306 |
0.3% |
67% |
|
307 |
1.4% |
67% |
|
308 |
4% |
65% |
|
309 |
0.9% |
62% |
|
310 |
1.0% |
61% |
|
311 |
3% |
60% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
57% |
|
313 |
1.1% |
56% |
|
314 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
315 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
54% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
53% |
|
318 |
0% |
53% |
|
319 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
320 |
1.0% |
53% |
|
321 |
0.4% |
52% |
Last Result |
322 |
1.4% |
52% |
Median |
323 |
0.4% |
50% |
|
324 |
0.7% |
50% |
|
325 |
10% |
49% |
|
326 |
7% |
39% |
Majority |
327 |
14% |
32% |
|
328 |
3% |
18% |
|
329 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
330 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
332 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
333 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
334 |
2% |
12% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
336 |
2% |
10% |
|
337 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
338 |
2% |
7% |
|
339 |
2% |
5% |
|
340 |
2% |
3% |
|
341 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
345 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
346 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
355 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
356 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
262 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
267 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
271 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
274 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
275 |
3% |
97% |
|
276 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
277 |
3% |
93% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
90% |
|
279 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
280 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
281 |
5% |
89% |
|
282 |
2% |
84% |
|
283 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
284 |
13% |
81% |
|
285 |
7% |
68% |
|
286 |
2% |
61% |
|
287 |
1.2% |
59% |
|
288 |
8% |
57% |
|
289 |
0.7% |
50% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
49% |
|
291 |
2% |
49% |
|
292 |
0.7% |
47% |
|
293 |
0.3% |
46% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
46% |
|
295 |
1.0% |
46% |
|
296 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
297 |
0% |
45% |
|
298 |
0.2% |
45% |
Median |
299 |
0.5% |
45% |
|
300 |
3% |
44% |
|
301 |
0.1% |
41% |
Last Result |
302 |
0.2% |
41% |
|
303 |
3% |
41% |
|
304 |
2% |
38% |
|
305 |
0.7% |
36% |
|
306 |
6% |
35% |
|
307 |
2% |
29% |
|
308 |
1.4% |
27% |
|
309 |
3% |
26% |
|
310 |
3% |
22% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
19% |
|
312 |
0.5% |
18% |
|
313 |
0.5% |
18% |
|
314 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
315 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
317 |
0% |
16% |
|
318 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
321 |
0.4% |
15% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
324 |
0.4% |
14% |
|
325 |
0.3% |
14% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
14% |
Majority |
327 |
3% |
13% |
|
328 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
329 |
2% |
10% |
|
330 |
1.4% |
8% |
|
331 |
2% |
6% |
|
332 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
333 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
335 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
336 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
341 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
343 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
345 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
347 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
349 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
259 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
260 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
261 |
0% |
99.0% |
|
262 |
0.4% |
99.0% |
|
263 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
267 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
269 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
271 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
272 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
273 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
274 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
275 |
3% |
94% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
277 |
3% |
90% |
|
278 |
0.5% |
87% |
|
279 |
0% |
87% |
|
280 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
281 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
282 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
283 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
285 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
287 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
84% |
|
289 |
0.4% |
84% |
|
290 |
1.2% |
84% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
82% |
|
292 |
0.7% |
82% |
|
293 |
1.2% |
82% |
|
294 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
295 |
0.4% |
79% |
|
296 |
3% |
79% |
|
297 |
5% |
76% |
|
298 |
3% |
71% |
|
299 |
2% |
68% |
|
300 |
1.2% |
65% |
|
301 |
0.6% |
64% |
|
302 |
0.4% |
64% |
|
303 |
2% |
63% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
61% |
|
305 |
1.4% |
61% |
|
306 |
3% |
59% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
308 |
1.1% |
56% |
|
309 |
1.1% |
55% |
|
310 |
0.2% |
54% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
54% |
|
312 |
0.2% |
53% |
|
313 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
314 |
0.6% |
53% |
|
315 |
1.1% |
52% |
|
316 |
0.1% |
51% |
|
317 |
1.1% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
318 |
0.2% |
50% |
|
319 |
0.7% |
50% |
|
320 |
10% |
49% |
|
321 |
7% |
39% |
|
322 |
14% |
32% |
|
323 |
3% |
18% |
|
324 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
325 |
0.8% |
14% |
|
326 |
0.1% |
13% |
Majority |
327 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
328 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
329 |
2% |
12% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
331 |
2% |
10% |
|
332 |
2% |
7% |
|
333 |
3% |
6% |
|
334 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
255 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
259 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
260 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
262 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
264 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
265 |
1.1% |
99.1% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
267 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
269 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
270 |
2% |
95% |
|
271 |
2% |
94% |
|
272 |
2% |
91% |
|
273 |
0.8% |
89% |
|
274 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
276 |
5% |
88% |
|
277 |
2% |
84% |
|
278 |
1.1% |
82% |
|
279 |
13% |
81% |
|
280 |
8% |
68% |
|
281 |
2% |
60% |
|
282 |
1.2% |
58% |
|
283 |
8% |
57% |
|
284 |
0.5% |
49% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
49% |
|
286 |
1.3% |
49% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
47% |
|
288 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
289 |
0.2% |
46% |
|
290 |
0.9% |
46% |
|
291 |
0.1% |
45% |
|
292 |
0% |
45% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
45% |
Median |
294 |
0.3% |
45% |
|
295 |
3% |
44% |
|
296 |
1.0% |
41% |
|
297 |
0.9% |
40% |
Last Result |
298 |
5% |
40% |
|
299 |
2% |
35% |
|
300 |
0.3% |
33% |
|
301 |
0.8% |
33% |
|
302 |
6% |
32% |
|
303 |
2% |
26% |
|
304 |
4% |
24% |
|
305 |
1.1% |
20% |
|
306 |
0.6% |
19% |
|
307 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
308 |
1.1% |
17% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
16% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
312 |
0% |
16% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
316 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
15% |
|
318 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
319 |
2% |
14% |
|
320 |
0.9% |
12% |
|
321 |
0.9% |
11% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
10% |
|
323 |
0.7% |
10% |
|
324 |
2% |
9% |
|
325 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
326 |
2% |
6% |
Majority |
327 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
328 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
330 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
331 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
332 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
336 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
340 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
343 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
245 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
246 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
249 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
251 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
252 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
253 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
254 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
255 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
256 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
257 |
2% |
98% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
259 |
2% |
96% |
|
260 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
262 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
263 |
2% |
93% |
|
264 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
265 |
0% |
91% |
|
266 |
2% |
91% |
|
267 |
2% |
89% |
|
268 |
4% |
87% |
|
269 |
13% |
83% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
70% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
70% |
|
272 |
4% |
70% |
|
273 |
2% |
65% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
64% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
64% |
|
276 |
1.3% |
63% |
|
277 |
2% |
62% |
|
278 |
0.2% |
60% |
Last Result |
279 |
0.5% |
60% |
|
280 |
0.6% |
59% |
|
281 |
2% |
59% |
|
282 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
283 |
3% |
57% |
|
284 |
6% |
54% |
Median |
285 |
0.7% |
48% |
|
286 |
0.8% |
47% |
|
287 |
3% |
47% |
|
288 |
0% |
44% |
|
289 |
0.5% |
44% |
|
290 |
1.3% |
43% |
|
291 |
0.8% |
42% |
|
292 |
5% |
41% |
|
293 |
0.1% |
36% |
|
294 |
0% |
36% |
|
295 |
3% |
35% |
|
296 |
0.8% |
33% |
|
297 |
5% |
32% |
|
298 |
3% |
27% |
|
299 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
300 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
302 |
1.3% |
23% |
|
303 |
0.6% |
21% |
|
304 |
0.4% |
21% |
|
305 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
306 |
1.5% |
20% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
19% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
309 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
310 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
311 |
2% |
16% |
|
312 |
0.7% |
14% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
314 |
4% |
13% |
|
315 |
0.5% |
10% |
|
316 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
317 |
0% |
8% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
320 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
322 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
323 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
324 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
325 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
326 |
0.3% |
5% |
Majority |
327 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
328 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
329 |
0% |
3% |
|
330 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
331 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
333 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
335 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
336 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
338 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
343 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
346 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
348 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
352 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
353 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
354 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
355 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
356 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
357 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
358 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
238 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
239 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
240 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
241 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
242 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
243 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
244 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
246 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
247 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
248 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
249 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
251 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
252 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
253 |
0.2% |
96% |
|
254 |
2% |
96% |
|
255 |
0.3% |
94% |
|
256 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
258 |
2% |
93% |
|
259 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
260 |
0.2% |
91% |
|
261 |
2% |
91% |
|
262 |
2% |
89% |
|
263 |
4% |
87% |
|
264 |
13% |
82% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
70% |
|
266 |
0.2% |
70% |
|
267 |
5% |
70% |
|
268 |
2% |
64% |
|
269 |
0.6% |
62% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
62% |
|
271 |
0.2% |
62% |
|
272 |
2% |
61% |
|
273 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
59% |
Last Result |
275 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
276 |
2% |
59% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
56% |
|
278 |
4% |
56% |
|
279 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
280 |
0.9% |
47% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
47% |
|
282 |
3% |
46% |
|
283 |
0.4% |
43% |
|
284 |
0.8% |
43% |
|
285 |
0.6% |
42% |
|
286 |
0.4% |
41% |
|
287 |
4% |
41% |
|
288 |
2% |
37% |
|
289 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
290 |
2% |
35% |
|
291 |
3% |
33% |
|
292 |
5% |
30% |
|
293 |
2% |
25% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
24% |
|
295 |
1.1% |
23% |
|
296 |
0.2% |
22% |
|
297 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
299 |
0.4% |
20% |
|
300 |
1.4% |
20% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
19% |
|
302 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
303 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
304 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
306 |
4% |
16% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
308 |
2% |
12% |
|
309 |
2% |
10% |
|
310 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
315 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
317 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
321 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
322 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
323 |
2% |
5% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
325 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
326 |
0.4% |
2% |
Majority |
327 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
328 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
330 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
331 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
332 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
333 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
334 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
337 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
339 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
341 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
342 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
343 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
344 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
345 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
347 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
348 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
349 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
350 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
351 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
352 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
226 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
232 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
233 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
234 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
235 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
236 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
237 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
238 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
239 |
0% |
93% |
|
240 |
0.5% |
93% |
|
241 |
2% |
93% |
|
242 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
243 |
6% |
90% |
|
244 |
9% |
84% |
|
245 |
0.1% |
74% |
|
246 |
2% |
74% |
|
247 |
1.1% |
72% |
|
248 |
3% |
71% |
|
249 |
4% |
68% |
|
250 |
2% |
64% |
|
251 |
0.2% |
62% |
|
252 |
2% |
62% |
|
253 |
0.3% |
60% |
|
254 |
0.7% |
60% |
|
255 |
0.6% |
59% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
59% |
|
257 |
1.4% |
58% |
|
258 |
3% |
57% |
|
259 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
260 |
3% |
49% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
46% |
|
262 |
0.9% |
45% |
|
263 |
0.9% |
45% |
|
264 |
0.7% |
44% |
|
265 |
5% |
43% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
38% |
Last Result |
267 |
4% |
38% |
|
268 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
269 |
1.0% |
33% |
|
270 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
271 |
4% |
32% |
|
272 |
2% |
28% |
|
273 |
2% |
26% |
|
274 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
24% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
277 |
1.5% |
23% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
279 |
1.0% |
21% |
|
280 |
2% |
20% |
|
281 |
0.4% |
19% |
|
282 |
1.3% |
18% |
|
283 |
1.2% |
17% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
16% |
|
285 |
1.5% |
16% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
287 |
2% |
14% |
|
288 |
2% |
12% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
290 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
291 |
0.9% |
9% |
|
292 |
0.9% |
8% |
|
293 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
294 |
0.1% |
7% |
|
295 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
296 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
297 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
298 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
300 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
301 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
303 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
304 |
0% |
2% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
306 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
307 |
0% |
2% |
|
308 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
309 |
0% |
1.4% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
311 |
0.5% |
1.4% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
320 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
324 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
325 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
327 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
215 |
0% |
100% |
|
216 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
219 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
224 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
229 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
230 |
2% |
97% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
232 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
233 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
93% |
|
235 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
236 |
2% |
92% |
|
237 |
1.0% |
91% |
|
238 |
6% |
90% |
|
239 |
9% |
83% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
74% |
|
241 |
3% |
74% |
|
242 |
0.1% |
71% |
|
243 |
3% |
71% |
|
244 |
5% |
68% |
|
245 |
2% |
63% |
|
246 |
0.2% |
61% |
|
247 |
0.3% |
61% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
249 |
0.6% |
59% |
|
250 |
0.2% |
59% |
|
251 |
1.1% |
58% |
|
252 |
1.4% |
57% |
|
253 |
2% |
56% |
|
254 |
4% |
54% |
Median |
255 |
4% |
49% |
|
256 |
0.3% |
46% |
|
257 |
2% |
45% |
|
258 |
0.7% |
43% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
42% |
|
260 |
4% |
42% |
|
261 |
1.1% |
38% |
|
262 |
0.5% |
37% |
Last Result |
263 |
5% |
36% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
265 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
266 |
3% |
31% |
|
267 |
2% |
28% |
|
268 |
2% |
25% |
|
269 |
0.7% |
24% |
|
270 |
0.6% |
23% |
|
271 |
0.4% |
22% |
|
272 |
0.8% |
22% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
274 |
2% |
21% |
|
275 |
0.9% |
19% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
277 |
1.0% |
18% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
279 |
2% |
16% |
|
280 |
2% |
14% |
|
281 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
282 |
0.7% |
12% |
|
283 |
3% |
11% |
|
284 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
287 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
288 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
289 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
290 |
0.4% |
7% |
|
291 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
292 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
293 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
294 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
295 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
296 |
2% |
5% |
|
297 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
298 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
299 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
301 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
302 |
0% |
2% |
|
303 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
304 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
305 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
306 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
307 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
309 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
310 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
311 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
315 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
319 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BMG Research
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–5 July 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1511
- Simulations done: 262,144
- Error estimate: 0.26%