Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 6–9 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.9% 39.5–42.3% 39.1–42.7% 38.7–43.1% 38.1–43.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.9% 37.5–40.3% 37.1–40.7% 36.8–41.1% 36.1–41.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 310 286–332 279–335 274–337 266–344
Labour Party 262 265 242–290 240–298 238–305 231–316
Liberal Democrats 12 21 17–26 17–26 16–27 15–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 35 18–46 12–48 7–49 4–51
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.2% 99.3%  
269 0.2% 99.1%  
270 0.1% 99.0%  
271 0.2% 98.8%  
272 0.4% 98.6%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.6% 97%  
277 0.4% 97%  
278 0.3% 96%  
279 1.0% 96%  
280 1.0% 95%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.6% 93%  
283 0.9% 93%  
284 0.3% 92%  
285 0.6% 91%  
286 2% 91%  
287 1.0% 88%  
288 0.4% 87%  
289 1.2% 87%  
290 0.8% 86%  
291 1.0% 85%  
292 2% 84%  
293 1.3% 82%  
294 0.5% 80%  
295 1.2% 80%  
296 2% 79%  
297 2% 77%  
298 2% 75%  
299 1.4% 74%  
300 3% 72%  
301 2% 69%  
302 0.7% 67%  
303 2% 67%  
304 2% 65%  
305 2% 63%  
306 4% 61%  
307 3% 58%  
308 1.2% 54%  
309 2% 53%  
310 2% 52% Median
311 3% 50%  
312 2% 47%  
313 1.2% 45%  
314 3% 44%  
315 1.2% 41%  
316 2% 40%  
317 1.2% 38% Last Result
318 3% 37%  
319 2% 33%  
320 1.3% 32%  
321 2% 31%  
322 3% 29%  
323 1.2% 26%  
324 1.0% 25%  
325 2% 24%  
326 3% 22% Majority
327 2% 18%  
328 2% 16%  
329 2% 14%  
330 1.2% 13%  
331 1.3% 11%  
332 3% 10%  
333 0.9% 7%  
334 1.1% 6%  
335 1.4% 5%  
336 0.9% 4%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.2% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.5%  
233 0.3% 99.3%  
234 0.3% 99.0%  
235 0.3% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.8% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 1.1% 96%  
241 3% 95%  
242 4% 91%  
243 1.5% 88%  
244 0.9% 86%  
245 0.6% 85%  
246 0.8% 85%  
247 0.9% 84%  
248 1.1% 83%  
249 3% 82%  
250 2% 79%  
251 2% 77%  
252 2% 75%  
253 2% 73%  
254 1.3% 71%  
255 1.3% 70%  
256 0.7% 69%  
257 2% 68%  
258 2% 66%  
259 2% 65%  
260 1.4% 63%  
261 3% 61%  
262 3% 58% Last Result
263 2% 55%  
264 2% 53%  
265 2% 51% Median
266 2% 49%  
267 1.4% 48%  
268 3% 46%  
269 2% 43%  
270 1.2% 41%  
271 1.0% 40%  
272 3% 39%  
273 1.2% 36%  
274 4% 35%  
275 1.4% 31%  
276 1.4% 30%  
277 2% 28%  
278 3% 26%  
279 0.9% 23%  
280 2% 23%  
281 0.5% 21%  
282 0.8% 20%  
283 2% 19%  
284 0.4% 18%  
285 2% 17%  
286 1.2% 15%  
287 0.6% 14%  
288 1.3% 14%  
289 1.3% 12%  
290 1.3% 11%  
291 0.4% 10%  
292 0.4% 9%  
293 1.2% 9%  
294 1.0% 8%  
295 0.5% 7%  
296 0.4% 6%  
297 0.1% 6%  
298 1.0% 6%  
299 0.5% 5%  
300 0.3% 4%  
301 0.5% 4%  
302 0.3% 4%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.5%  
311 0.1% 1.4%  
312 0.2% 1.3%  
313 0.1% 1.1%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 1.1% 99.6%  
16 3% 98.5%  
17 7% 96%  
18 13% 89%  
19 10% 77%  
20 9% 66%  
21 11% 58% Median
22 16% 47%  
23 2% 31%  
24 12% 28%  
25 2% 16%  
26 10% 14%  
27 2% 4%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.7%  
4 0.2% 99.6%  
5 0.5% 99.3%  
6 0.8% 98.8%  
7 0.5% 98%  
8 0.8% 97%  
9 1.2% 97%  
10 0.2% 95%  
11 0.1% 95%  
12 0.5% 95%  
13 1.5% 95%  
14 1.0% 93%  
15 1.3% 92%  
16 0.1% 91%  
17 0.7% 91%  
18 0.4% 90%  
19 3% 90%  
20 0.8% 87%  
21 3% 86%  
22 1.3% 83%  
23 5% 81%  
24 2% 76%  
25 0.9% 74%  
26 5% 74%  
27 5% 69%  
28 2% 64%  
29 1.3% 62%  
30 1.2% 61%  
31 0.7% 60%  
32 2% 59%  
33 1.3% 57%  
34 0.6% 56%  
35 7% 55% Last Result, Median
36 1.4% 49%  
37 0.9% 47%  
38 8% 46%  
39 6% 39%  
40 11% 33%  
41 3% 22%  
42 2% 18%  
43 0.7% 17%  
44 3% 16%  
45 3% 14%  
46 2% 10%  
47 2% 8%  
48 3% 6%  
49 1.4% 3%  
50 0.5% 2%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 10% 34%  
2 16% 24%  
3 6% 8%  
4 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 344 81% 316–367 311–370 304–373 291–379
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 343 80% 316–367 310–370 303–372 291–379
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 332 64% 308–351 302–354 297–357 289–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 320 37% 299–344 296–351 293–356 286–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 319 36% 298–344 295–351 292–355 285–364
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 311 23% 286–332 280–335 275–338 266–345
Conservative Party 317 310 22% 286–332 279–335 274–337 266–344
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 299 7% 279–322 276–328 273–333 267–341
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 298 7% 278–321 275–328 273–333 266–340
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 288 3% 263–314 260–321 258–327 251–339
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 287 3% 263–314 260–320 257–327 251–339
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 266 0.1% 242–291 241–299 239–305 232–317
Labour Party 262 265 0.1% 242–290 240–298 238–305 231–316

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.2%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.2% 99.0%  
296 0.1% 98.9%  
297 0.2% 98.8%  
298 0.1% 98.6%  
299 0.1% 98.5%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.4% 97%  
306 0.4% 97%  
307 0.1% 97%  
308 0.6% 96%  
309 0.5% 96%  
310 0.3% 95%  
311 1.2% 95%  
312 0.7% 94%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.3% 92%  
315 0.6% 92%  
316 1.0% 91%  
317 0.8% 90%  
318 1.1% 89%  
319 1.1% 88%  
320 0.8% 87%  
321 1.1% 86%  
322 0.7% 85%  
323 1.0% 84%  
324 1.2% 83%  
325 1.0% 82%  
326 1.2% 81% Majority
327 1.2% 80%  
328 2% 79%  
329 0.4% 76%  
330 1.1% 76%  
331 0.9% 75%  
332 3% 74%  
333 1.0% 71%  
334 2% 70%  
335 2% 67%  
336 1.4% 66%  
337 3% 65%  
338 0.9% 62%  
339 4% 61%  
340 1.0% 57%  
341 2% 56%  
342 3% 55%  
343 1.4% 51%  
344 2% 50%  
345 1.4% 48% Median
346 3% 47%  
347 2% 43%  
348 3% 42%  
349 2% 39%  
350 0.6% 37%  
351 2% 37%  
352 2% 35%  
353 0.6% 33%  
354 2% 32%  
355 1.3% 30%  
356 2% 29% Last Result
357 1.5% 26%  
358 2% 25%  
359 2% 23%  
360 0.9% 21%  
361 1.2% 20%  
362 2% 19%  
363 0.9% 17%  
364 0.9% 16%  
365 2% 16%  
366 2% 14%  
367 2% 12%  
368 1.1% 9%  
369 1.4% 8%  
370 2% 7%  
371 1.0% 5%  
372 1.0% 4%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.3% 1.4%  
377 0.3% 1.1%  
378 0.2% 0.8%  
379 0.2% 0.7%  
380 0.1% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.1% 99.2%  
294 0.2% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 98.9%  
296 0.2% 98.8%  
297 0.1% 98.6%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.2% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 0.3% 97%  
306 0.4% 97%  
307 0.1% 96%  
308 0.6% 96%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.5% 95%  
311 1.0% 95%  
312 0.6% 94%  
313 1.4% 93%  
314 0.3% 91%  
315 0.5% 91%  
316 1.0% 91%  
317 0.9% 90%  
318 1.4% 89%  
319 1.1% 87%  
320 0.6% 86%  
321 1.2% 86%  
322 0.9% 84%  
323 1.0% 83%  
324 1.3% 82%  
325 1.1% 81%  
326 1.3% 80% Majority
327 0.8% 79%  
328 2% 78%  
329 0.6% 76%  
330 1.5% 75%  
331 1.0% 74%  
332 4% 73%  
333 2% 69%  
334 1.4% 68%  
335 1.0% 66%  
336 1.4% 65%  
337 3% 64%  
338 1.4% 61%  
339 3% 60%  
340 1.0% 56%  
341 2% 55%  
342 3% 53%  
343 2% 50%  
344 2% 49%  
345 1.4% 47% Median
346 3% 45%  
347 2% 42%  
348 3% 40%  
349 1.2% 37%  
350 2% 36%  
351 1.4% 34%  
352 1.4% 33% Last Result
353 0.6% 32%  
354 2% 31%  
355 2% 29%  
356 2% 27%  
357 1.1% 25%  
358 1.3% 24%  
359 2% 22%  
360 1.3% 20%  
361 2% 19%  
362 1.3% 18%  
363 0.7% 16%  
364 0.7% 16%  
365 1.5% 15%  
366 3% 14%  
367 3% 11%  
368 1.3% 8%  
369 1.3% 7%  
370 2% 6%  
371 0.8% 4%  
372 1.0% 3%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.3% 1.5%  
376 0.2% 1.2%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 99.1%  
293 0.3% 98.9%  
294 0.2% 98.6%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 0.4% 97%  
299 0.4% 97%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.3% 96%  
302 1.0% 96%  
303 1.4% 95%  
304 0.7% 93%  
305 0.3% 93%  
306 1.0% 92%  
307 0.6% 91%  
308 0.9% 91%  
309 1.0% 90%  
310 1.2% 89%  
311 1.5% 88%  
312 1.4% 86%  
313 1.3% 85%  
314 0.4% 83%  
315 0.8% 83%  
316 2% 82%  
317 2% 80%  
318 2% 78%  
319 0.5% 76%  
320 3% 76%  
321 1.4% 72%  
322 2% 71%  
323 0.9% 69%  
324 3% 68%  
325 1.2% 65%  
326 2% 64% Majority
327 4% 62%  
328 2% 58%  
329 2% 56% Last Result
330 2% 54%  
331 1.4% 52% Median
332 2% 50%  
333 3% 48%  
334 2% 45%  
335 1.2% 43%  
336 3% 42%  
337 2% 39%  
338 1.2% 37%  
339 2% 36%  
340 2% 33%  
341 2% 31%  
342 0.9% 29%  
343 2% 28%  
344 2% 26%  
345 2% 25%  
346 2% 23%  
347 2% 20%  
348 3% 18%  
349 2% 15%  
350 1.0% 13%  
351 2% 12%  
352 0.9% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 2% 7%  
355 0.9% 5%  
356 1.1% 4%  
357 0.8% 3%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.3% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0.1% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.3% 99.3%  
289 0.2% 99.0%  
290 0.3% 98.9%  
291 0.4% 98.6%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.7% 98%  
294 0.9% 97%  
295 1.2% 96%  
296 1.0% 95%  
297 1.3% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 1.5% 90%  
300 1.4% 89%  
301 2% 88%  
302 2% 86%  
303 2% 84%  
304 3% 82%  
305 2% 78%  
306 0.8% 76%  
307 1.2% 75%  
308 3% 74%  
309 1.2% 71%  
310 2% 70%  
311 2% 68%  
312 3% 67%  
313 1.4% 64% Last Result
314 2% 62%  
315 0.9% 61%  
316 3% 60%  
317 1.0% 57%  
318 2% 56%  
319 3% 53%  
320 2% 50%  
321 2% 48% Median
322 0.9% 47%  
323 4% 46%  
324 4% 42%  
325 2% 39%  
326 2% 37% Majority
327 1.1% 35%  
328 1.3% 34%  
329 2% 33%  
330 2% 31%  
331 2% 29%  
332 2% 27%  
333 2% 25%  
334 2% 23%  
335 1.0% 21%  
336 0.6% 20%  
337 1.1% 20%  
338 2% 19%  
339 1.1% 16%  
340 0.9% 15%  
341 1.0% 14%  
342 0.6% 13%  
343 0.9% 13%  
344 2% 12%  
345 1.0% 10%  
346 0.3% 9%  
347 0.8% 8%  
348 0.6% 8%  
349 0.6% 7%  
350 0.8% 6%  
351 1.2% 6%  
352 0.5% 4%  
353 0.4% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.7% 3%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.1% 1.2%  
361 0.2% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 0.9%  
363 0.1% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0.2% 99.4%  
288 0.3% 99.2%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.3% 98.7%  
291 0.6% 98%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.8% 97%  
294 1.0% 97%  
295 1.2% 96%  
296 1.3% 94%  
297 2% 93%  
298 2% 91%  
299 1.2% 89%  
300 2% 88%  
301 2% 86%  
302 2% 84%  
303 2% 82%  
304 3% 81%  
305 2% 77%  
306 1.4% 75%  
307 1.1% 74%  
308 3% 72%  
309 1.0% 70% Last Result
310 2% 69%  
311 1.5% 67%  
312 4% 66%  
313 1.0% 62%  
314 2% 61%  
315 0.9% 59%  
316 3% 58%  
317 0.9% 56%  
318 2% 55%  
319 4% 52%  
320 1.2% 48%  
321 1.0% 47% Median
322 2% 46%  
323 3% 44%  
324 3% 41%  
325 2% 38%  
326 2% 36% Majority
327 0.8% 34%  
328 2% 33%  
329 1.3% 31%  
330 3% 29%  
331 1.4% 27%  
332 1.2% 25%  
333 2% 24%  
334 2% 22%  
335 0.9% 21%  
336 1.2% 20%  
337 0.9% 19%  
338 2% 18%  
339 1.0% 15%  
340 0.7% 14%  
341 0.8% 14%  
342 0.9% 13%  
343 0.8% 12%  
344 2% 11%  
345 0.7% 9%  
346 0.5% 8%  
347 0.8% 8%  
348 0.8% 7%  
349 0.5% 6%  
350 0.4% 6%  
351 1.2% 5%  
352 0.6% 4%  
353 0.4% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.3% 1.3%  
360 0.1% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.6%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.2% 99.0%  
272 0.3% 98.8%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.5% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.5% 97%  
277 0.5% 97%  
278 0.4% 96%  
279 1.0% 96%  
280 0.7% 95%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.8% 94%  
283 0.7% 93%  
284 0.6% 92%  
285 0.4% 92%  
286 2% 91%  
287 1.0% 89%  
288 0.7% 88%  
289 1.1% 88%  
290 0.8% 87%  
291 0.9% 86%  
292 2% 85%  
293 1.1% 83%  
294 1.1% 81%  
295 1.0% 80%  
296 2% 79%  
297 1.4% 78%  
298 1.4% 76%  
299 0.8% 75%  
300 3% 74%  
301 1.5% 71%  
302 2% 69%  
303 1.3% 67%  
304 2% 66%  
305 1.4% 64%  
306 4% 63%  
307 3% 59%  
308 2% 56%  
309 1.0% 54%  
310 1.4% 53% Median
311 4% 52%  
312 2% 48%  
313 1.1% 46%  
314 2% 44%  
315 1.3% 42%  
316 2% 41%  
317 1.2% 39%  
318 3% 38%  
319 1.5% 35%  
320 2% 33%  
321 1.3% 31% Last Result
322 2% 30%  
323 0.9% 28%  
324 2% 27%  
325 2% 25%  
326 4% 23% Majority
327 2% 19%  
328 2% 18%  
329 2% 16%  
330 2% 14%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 1.2% 9%  
334 2% 8%  
335 1.1% 6%  
336 1.2% 5%  
337 0.8% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.4%  
342 0.2% 1.1%  
343 0.3% 1.0%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.2% 99.3%  
269 0.2% 99.1%  
270 0.1% 99.0%  
271 0.2% 98.8%  
272 0.4% 98.6%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.6% 97%  
277 0.4% 97%  
278 0.3% 96%  
279 1.0% 96%  
280 1.0% 95%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.6% 93%  
283 0.9% 93%  
284 0.3% 92%  
285 0.6% 91%  
286 2% 91%  
287 1.0% 88%  
288 0.4% 87%  
289 1.2% 87%  
290 0.8% 86%  
291 1.0% 85%  
292 2% 84%  
293 1.3% 82%  
294 0.5% 80%  
295 1.2% 80%  
296 2% 79%  
297 2% 77%  
298 2% 75%  
299 1.4% 74%  
300 3% 72%  
301 2% 69%  
302 0.7% 67%  
303 2% 67%  
304 2% 65%  
305 2% 63%  
306 4% 61%  
307 3% 58%  
308 1.2% 54%  
309 2% 53%  
310 2% 52% Median
311 3% 50%  
312 2% 47%  
313 1.2% 45%  
314 3% 44%  
315 1.2% 41%  
316 2% 40%  
317 1.2% 38% Last Result
318 3% 37%  
319 2% 33%  
320 1.3% 32%  
321 2% 31%  
322 3% 29%  
323 1.2% 26%  
324 1.0% 25%  
325 2% 24%  
326 3% 22% Majority
327 2% 18%  
328 2% 16%  
329 2% 14%  
330 1.2% 13%  
331 1.3% 11%  
332 3% 10%  
333 0.9% 7%  
334 1.1% 6%  
335 1.4% 5%  
336 0.9% 4%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.1% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.2% 99.2%  
270 0.2% 99.0%  
271 0.5% 98.8%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.8% 98%  
274 0.9% 97%  
275 1.1% 96%  
276 2% 95%  
277 2% 93%  
278 1.0% 92%  
279 2% 91%  
280 1.4% 89%  
281 2% 88%  
282 3% 85%  
283 2% 82%  
284 2% 80%  
285 1.4% 77%  
286 2% 76%  
287 2% 74%  
288 0.7% 72%  
289 2% 71%  
290 1.3% 69%  
291 3% 68%  
292 2% 65%  
293 2% 63%  
294 3% 61%  
295 1.3% 58%  
296 2% 57%  
297 3% 55%  
298 2% 52%  
299 1.5% 50%  
300 2% 49% Median
301 2% 46% Last Result
302 2% 44%  
303 5% 42%  
304 2% 38%  
305 1.3% 36%  
306 2% 35%  
307 1.4% 32%  
308 1.2% 31%  
309 2% 30%  
310 3% 28%  
311 0.8% 25%  
312 1.5% 24%  
313 2% 22%  
314 2% 20%  
315 0.9% 18%  
316 0.4% 17%  
317 1.2% 17%  
318 1.4% 16%  
319 2% 14%  
320 1.0% 12%  
321 1.3% 12%  
322 0.9% 10%  
323 0.6% 9%  
324 1.0% 9%  
325 0.3% 8%  
326 0.3% 7% Majority
327 2% 7%  
328 0.6% 5%  
329 0.8% 5%  
330 0.5% 4%  
331 0.4% 4%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.4%  
338 0.3% 1.2%  
339 0.3% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.2% 99.3%  
269 0.4% 99.1%  
270 0.3% 98.7%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 1.2% 98%  
274 1.1% 97%  
275 1.3% 95%  
276 2% 94%  
277 1.4% 92%  
278 1.1% 90%  
279 2% 89%  
280 1.3% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 3% 84%  
283 2% 81%  
284 3% 79%  
285 1.1% 76%  
286 2% 74%  
287 2% 72%  
288 1.0% 70%  
289 2% 69%  
290 2% 68%  
291 2% 66%  
292 2% 64%  
293 3% 63%  
294 3% 59%  
295 1.0% 57%  
296 2% 56%  
297 3% 54% Last Result
298 2% 51%  
299 0.9% 49%  
300 3% 48% Median
301 2% 45%  
302 2% 42%  
303 4% 41%  
304 2% 37%  
305 1.0% 35%  
306 2% 34%  
307 1.5% 32%  
308 1.1% 30%  
309 4% 29%  
310 1.3% 25%  
311 1.4% 24%  
312 2% 23%  
313 2% 21%  
314 2% 19%  
315 0.7% 17%  
316 1.0% 17%  
317 0.8% 16%  
318 1.3% 15%  
319 1.4% 14%  
320 1.2% 12%  
321 1.4% 11%  
322 0.8% 10%  
323 0.6% 9%  
324 0.7% 8%  
325 0.5% 7%  
326 0.5% 7% Majority
327 1.3% 6%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.8% 5%  
330 0.5% 4%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0.3% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.3% 99.4%  
254 0.3% 99.1%  
255 0.2% 98.8%  
256 0.4% 98.7%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 1.0% 98%  
259 0.9% 97%  
260 2% 96%  
261 1.1% 94%  
262 1.5% 93%  
263 3% 92%  
264 2% 89%  
265 2% 87%  
266 0.9% 85%  
267 0.5% 84%  
268 1.4% 84%  
269 1.0% 82%  
270 2% 81%  
271 2% 80%  
272 1.1% 78%  
273 1.2% 77%  
274 2% 75%  
275 2% 74%  
276 2% 71%  
277 0.7% 69%  
278 1.4% 69% Last Result
279 1.3% 67%  
280 2% 66%  
281 0.9% 64%  
282 2% 63%  
283 2% 61%  
284 3% 58%  
285 1.4% 55%  
286 2% 54% Median
287 1.4% 51%  
288 3% 50%  
289 1.5% 47%  
290 2% 45%  
291 3% 44%  
292 2% 41%  
293 3% 39%  
294 1.4% 36%  
295 0.9% 35%  
296 2% 34%  
297 2% 32%  
298 3% 31%  
299 1.4% 28%  
300 1.3% 26%  
301 1.0% 25%  
302 2% 24%  
303 0.9% 22%  
304 1.3% 21%  
305 0.7% 20%  
306 2% 19%  
307 1.0% 18%  
308 0.9% 17%  
309 1.2% 16%  
310 0.6% 15%  
311 1.2% 14%  
312 1.1% 13%  
313 1.2% 12%  
314 0.9% 10%  
315 0.5% 10%  
316 0.5% 9%  
317 1.2% 9%  
318 0.8% 7%  
319 0.8% 7%  
320 0.6% 6%  
321 0.7% 5%  
322 0.3% 5%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.2% 3% Majority
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.4%  
335 0.1% 1.2%  
336 0.2% 1.2%  
337 0.1% 0.9%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.3% 99.3%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.3% 98.7%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 1.1% 97%  
259 0.9% 96%  
260 2% 96%  
261 1.4% 93%  
262 1.2% 92%  
263 2% 91%  
264 2% 88%  
265 2% 86%  
266 0.7% 85%  
267 1.0% 84%  
268 2% 83%  
269 1.1% 81%  
270 1.1% 80%  
271 2% 79%  
272 1.3% 77%  
273 2% 76%  
274 2% 74% Last Result
275 1.5% 72%  
276 2% 70%  
277 0.7% 68%  
278 2% 68%  
279 2% 65%  
280 0.6% 64%  
281 2% 63%  
282 3% 61%  
283 2% 59%  
284 3% 57%  
285 1.3% 53%  
286 2% 52% Median
287 2% 50%  
288 3% 49%  
289 1.1% 46%  
290 2% 44%  
291 3% 43%  
292 2% 40%  
293 2% 38%  
294 1.3% 36%  
295 1.4% 34%  
296 2% 33%  
297 1.0% 30%  
298 3% 29%  
299 1.2% 26%  
300 1.0% 25%  
301 0.7% 24%  
302 2% 24%  
303 1.1% 21%  
304 1.2% 20%  
305 0.7% 19%  
306 2% 18%  
307 1.0% 17%  
308 0.6% 16%  
309 1.2% 15%  
310 0.5% 14%  
311 1.5% 13%  
312 1.0% 12%  
313 0.9% 11%  
314 0.9% 10%  
315 0.6% 9%  
316 0.4% 9%  
317 1.2% 8%  
318 0.6% 7%  
319 1.1% 6%  
320 0.5% 5%  
321 0.4% 5%  
322 0.3% 4%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.4% 3%  
326 0.3% 3% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.4%  
334 0.1% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.2%  
336 0.1% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.9%  
338 0.3% 0.8%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.1% 99.4%  
234 0.3% 99.3%  
235 0.4% 99.0%  
236 0.2% 98.6%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0.9% 98%  
240 1.0% 97%  
241 3% 96%  
242 4% 93%  
243 2% 89%  
244 1.1% 87%  
245 0.5% 86%  
246 0.6% 85%  
247 1.0% 85%  
248 1.1% 84%  
249 2% 83%  
250 1.1% 80%  
251 2% 79%  
252 2% 77%  
253 2% 75%  
254 2% 73%  
255 0.6% 71%  
256 1.1% 70%  
257 2% 69%  
258 2% 67%  
259 1.4% 65%  
260 1.1% 64%  
261 3% 63%  
262 3% 60%  
263 2% 57%  
264 2% 55%  
265 3% 54% Median
266 2% 51% Last Result
267 1.3% 49%  
268 3% 47%  
269 2% 44%  
270 0.6% 42%  
271 2% 41%  
272 2% 40%  
273 1.4% 37%  
274 3% 36%  
275 2% 33%  
276 2% 31%  
277 0.9% 29%  
278 4% 28%  
279 0.8% 24%  
280 2% 23%  
281 0.8% 21%  
282 0.7% 21%  
283 2% 20%  
284 0.6% 18%  
285 2% 18%  
286 0.6% 16%  
287 1.0% 15%  
288 1.4% 14%  
289 2% 13%  
290 1.1% 12%  
291 0.5% 10%  
292 0.6% 10%  
293 1.1% 9%  
294 1.0% 8%  
295 0.6% 7%  
296 0.4% 7%  
297 0.2% 6%  
298 0.8% 6%  
299 0.5% 5%  
300 0.3% 5%  
301 0.6% 4%  
302 0.3% 4%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0.4% 3%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.1% 1.5%  
312 0.2% 1.4%  
313 0.2% 1.2%  
314 0.1% 1.0%  
315 0.4% 0.9%  
316 0% 0.6%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.2% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.5%  
233 0.3% 99.3%  
234 0.3% 99.0%  
235 0.3% 98.8%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.8% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 1.1% 96%  
241 3% 95%  
242 4% 91%  
243 1.5% 88%  
244 0.9% 86%  
245 0.6% 85%  
246 0.8% 85%  
247 0.9% 84%  
248 1.1% 83%  
249 3% 82%  
250 2% 79%  
251 2% 77%  
252 2% 75%  
253 2% 73%  
254 1.3% 71%  
255 1.3% 70%  
256 0.7% 69%  
257 2% 68%  
258 2% 66%  
259 2% 65%  
260 1.4% 63%  
261 3% 61%  
262 3% 58% Last Result
263 2% 55%  
264 2% 53%  
265 2% 51% Median
266 2% 49%  
267 1.4% 48%  
268 3% 46%  
269 2% 43%  
270 1.2% 41%  
271 1.0% 40%  
272 3% 39%  
273 1.2% 36%  
274 4% 35%  
275 1.4% 31%  
276 1.4% 30%  
277 2% 28%  
278 3% 26%  
279 0.9% 23%  
280 2% 23%  
281 0.5% 21%  
282 0.8% 20%  
283 2% 19%  
284 0.4% 18%  
285 2% 17%  
286 1.2% 15%  
287 0.6% 14%  
288 1.3% 14%  
289 1.3% 12%  
290 1.3% 11%  
291 0.4% 10%  
292 0.4% 9%  
293 1.2% 9%  
294 1.0% 8%  
295 0.5% 7%  
296 0.4% 6%  
297 0.1% 6%  
298 1.0% 6%  
299 0.5% 5%  
300 0.3% 4%  
301 0.5% 4%  
302 0.3% 4%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.5% 3%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.1% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.5%  
311 0.1% 1.4%  
312 0.2% 1.3%  
313 0.1% 1.1%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations