Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 8–9 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.0% 37.5–40.6% 37.1–41.0% 36.7–41.4% 36.0–42.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.5–40.6% 37.1–41.0% 36.7–41.4% 36.0–42.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–10.9%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.3–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.1% 3.7–6.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 284 263–315 259–320 256–324 248–331
Labour Party 262 276 249–296 242–303 239–309 236–317
Liberal Democrats 12 22 17–27 15–28 14–28 12–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 46 29–51 26–52 21–54 9–56
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.2% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 98.9%  
253 0.2% 98.7%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.7% 96%  
259 0.7% 96%  
260 2% 95%  
261 0.8% 93%  
262 2% 92%  
263 0.9% 90%  
264 2% 89%  
265 2% 87%  
266 2% 85%  
267 2% 84%  
268 4% 82%  
269 2% 78%  
270 0.9% 76%  
271 2% 75%  
272 3% 73%  
273 3% 70%  
274 1.3% 68%  
275 2% 66%  
276 0.7% 64%  
277 2% 63%  
278 1.5% 61%  
279 3% 60%  
280 0.7% 57%  
281 2% 56%  
282 3% 54%  
283 1.2% 52%  
284 0.9% 51% Median
285 1.3% 50%  
286 1.2% 48%  
287 1.3% 47%  
288 1.5% 46%  
289 2% 44%  
290 1.4% 42%  
291 0.7% 41%  
292 2% 40%  
293 1.4% 38%  
294 1.2% 37%  
295 1.0% 35%  
296 2% 34%  
297 0.9% 33%  
298 1.1% 32%  
299 1.5% 31%  
300 0.9% 29%  
301 1.2% 28%  
302 2% 27%  
303 3% 26%  
304 0.9% 23%  
305 1.3% 22%  
306 2% 21%  
307 0.8% 18%  
308 1.2% 18%  
309 1.4% 16%  
310 0.6% 15%  
311 2% 14%  
312 1.2% 13%  
313 0.6% 12%  
314 0.5% 11%  
315 0.8% 11%  
316 0.8% 10%  
317 2% 9% Last Result
318 0.4% 7%  
319 2% 7%  
320 0.6% 5%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.5% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.7% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0.5% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.4% 99.6%  
237 0.4% 99.1%  
238 1.1% 98.7%  
239 1.2% 98%  
240 0.5% 97%  
241 0.5% 96%  
242 0.8% 96%  
243 0.4% 95%  
244 0.4% 94%  
245 0.7% 94%  
246 1.4% 93%  
247 1.2% 92%  
248 0.5% 91%  
249 2% 90%  
250 1.0% 88%  
251 0.9% 87%  
252 0.4% 86%  
253 0.3% 86%  
254 1.4% 85%  
255 1.1% 84%  
256 4% 83%  
257 2% 79%  
258 0.8% 77%  
259 0.5% 77%  
260 2% 76%  
261 2% 75%  
262 2% 72% Last Result
263 1.2% 71%  
264 0.4% 69%  
265 2% 69%  
266 2% 67%  
267 0.8% 65%  
268 0.2% 64%  
269 1.1% 64%  
270 3% 63%  
271 2% 60%  
272 1.3% 58%  
273 2% 57%  
274 1.4% 55%  
275 1.4% 53%  
276 2% 52% Median
277 1.5% 50%  
278 2% 48%  
279 1.0% 46%  
280 1.0% 45%  
281 1.3% 44%  
282 2% 43%  
283 2% 41%  
284 3% 39%  
285 1.2% 36%  
286 4% 35%  
287 2% 31%  
288 2% 28%  
289 2% 26%  
290 1.3% 25%  
291 2% 23%  
292 4% 21%  
293 2% 17%  
294 3% 15%  
295 2% 12%  
296 1.1% 10%  
297 0.9% 9%  
298 1.1% 9%  
299 0.4% 8%  
300 0.5% 7%  
301 0.6% 7%  
302 0.9% 6%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 0.7% 5%  
305 0.6% 4%  
306 0.4% 4%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.4% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.4% 1.4%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.1% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
13 0.9% 99.4%  
14 1.2% 98%  
15 3% 97%  
16 4% 94%  
17 6% 90%  
18 6% 84%  
19 7% 78%  
20 10% 71%  
21 11% 61%  
22 7% 50% Median
23 6% 43%  
24 6% 37%  
25 11% 31%  
26 9% 21%  
27 7% 12%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.8%  
9 0.3% 99.7%  
10 0% 99.4%  
11 0% 99.4%  
12 0% 99.3%  
13 0.1% 99.3%  
14 0.1% 99.2%  
15 0.1% 99.0%  
16 0.3% 98.9%  
17 0.1% 98.6%  
18 0.1% 98.5%  
19 0.2% 98%  
20 0.2% 98%  
21 0.5% 98%  
22 0.4% 97%  
23 0.4% 97%  
24 0.7% 97%  
25 0.5% 96%  
26 1.3% 96%  
27 1.0% 94%  
28 2% 93%  
29 2% 92%  
30 0.2% 89%  
31 0.4% 89%  
32 1.1% 89%  
33 0.5% 88%  
34 0.3% 87%  
35 2% 87% Last Result
36 0.4% 85%  
37 1.4% 84%  
38 4% 83%  
39 4% 79%  
40 5% 74%  
41 5% 70%  
42 2% 65%  
43 3% 62%  
44 5% 60%  
45 2% 55%  
46 5% 53% Median
47 8% 48%  
48 10% 40%  
49 4% 31%  
50 6% 27%  
51 11% 21%  
52 5% 10%  
53 1.4% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.4% 0.4%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 4% 98%  
2 17% 94%  
3 24% 78%  
4 25% 54% Last Result, Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 346 78% 315–367 310–371 306–374 299–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 343 72% 311–364 306–367 302–371 295–379
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 332 60% 310–361 304–367 298–371 289–376
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 329 54% 307–358 301–364 296–367 286–372
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 323 46% 294–345 290–348 285–352 279–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 320 41% 291–341 286–344 281–348 276–355
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 307 20% 285–336 282–340 278–345 272–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 301 8% 272–323 266–329 263–334 258–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 298 5% 269–320 263–326 259–332 254–341
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 287 4% 266–319 263–324 259–328 251–335
Conservative Party 317 284 2% 263–315 259–320 256–324 248–331
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 279 0.2% 251–300 245–306 243–312 240–321
Labour Party 262 276 0.1% 249–296 242–303 239–309 236–317

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.2% 99.3%  
302 0.5% 99.1%  
303 0.1% 98.6%  
304 0.2% 98.5%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.5% 98%  
307 0.4% 97%  
308 0.5% 97%  
309 0.9% 96%  
310 0.6% 95%  
311 2% 95%  
312 0.4% 93%  
313 2% 93% Last Result
314 0.8% 91%  
315 0.8% 90%  
316 0.5% 89%  
317 0.6% 89%  
318 1.2% 88%  
319 2% 87%  
320 0.6% 86%  
321 1.4% 85%  
322 1.2% 84%  
323 0.8% 82%  
324 2% 82%  
325 1.3% 79%  
326 0.9% 78% Majority
327 3% 77%  
328 2% 74%  
329 1.2% 73%  
330 0.9% 72%  
331 1.5% 71%  
332 1.1% 69%  
333 0.9% 68%  
334 2% 67%  
335 1.0% 66%  
336 1.2% 65%  
337 1.4% 63%  
338 2% 62%  
339 0.7% 60%  
340 1.4% 59%  
341 2% 58%  
342 1.5% 56%  
343 1.3% 54%  
344 1.2% 53%  
345 1.3% 52%  
346 0.9% 50%  
347 1.2% 49%  
348 3% 48% Median
349 2% 46%  
350 0.7% 44%  
351 3% 43%  
352 1.5% 40%  
353 2% 39%  
354 0.7% 37%  
355 2% 36%  
356 1.3% 34%  
357 3% 32%  
358 3% 30%  
359 2% 27%  
360 0.9% 25%  
361 2% 24%  
362 4% 22%  
363 2% 18%  
364 2% 16%  
365 2% 15%  
366 2% 13%  
367 0.9% 11%  
368 2% 10%  
369 0.8% 8%  
370 2% 7%  
371 0.7% 5%  
372 0.7% 4%  
373 0.8% 4%  
374 0.5% 3%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.2% 2%  
378 0.3% 1.3%  
379 0.2% 1.1%  
380 0.2% 0.9%  
381 0.2% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.2% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.3%  
298 0.2% 99.1%  
299 0.4% 99.0%  
300 0.5% 98.6%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 0.7% 96%  
306 0.8% 96%  
307 1.0% 95%  
308 1.0% 94%  
309 0.6% 93% Last Result
310 0.8% 92%  
311 2% 91%  
312 0.8% 90%  
313 1.1% 89%  
314 1.3% 88%  
315 0.6% 87%  
316 1.4% 86%  
317 0.9% 85%  
318 1.4% 84%  
319 0.9% 82%  
320 2% 82%  
321 2% 80%  
322 1.2% 78%  
323 2% 77%  
324 3% 76%  
325 0.9% 73%  
326 1.3% 72% Majority
327 0.9% 71%  
328 1.0% 70%  
329 1.3% 69%  
330 1.5% 67%  
331 0.9% 66%  
332 1.4% 65%  
333 1.1% 64%  
334 1.0% 62%  
335 2% 62%  
336 1.2% 59%  
337 1.0% 58%  
338 2% 57%  
339 2% 55%  
340 1.3% 54%  
341 0.9% 52%  
342 1.0% 51%  
343 1.2% 50%  
344 2% 49% Median
345 2% 47%  
346 0.5% 45%  
347 2% 44%  
348 3% 43%  
349 1.1% 39%  
350 0.9% 38%  
351 1.4% 37%  
352 2% 36%  
353 3% 34%  
354 2% 31%  
355 2% 29%  
356 3% 27%  
357 2% 24%  
358 2% 22%  
359 2% 20%  
360 2% 18%  
361 2% 16%  
362 2% 14%  
363 2% 12%  
364 2% 10%  
365 0.8% 8%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.1% 6%  
368 0.8% 5%  
369 0.4% 4%  
370 0.9% 4%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 1.0%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0.2% 99.4%  
292 0.2% 99.2%  
293 0.2% 99.0%  
294 0.1% 98.7%  
295 0.1% 98.6%  
296 0.4% 98.5%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 0.3% 97%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 0.4% 96%  
303 0.7% 96%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.6% 95%  
306 0.5% 94%  
307 1.3% 94%  
308 0.7% 92%  
309 1.1% 92%  
310 1.0% 91%  
311 2% 90%  
312 2% 88%  
313 2% 86%  
314 3% 84%  
315 0.8% 81%  
316 2% 80%  
317 1.3% 78%  
318 2% 77%  
319 3% 75%  
320 2% 72%  
321 2% 70%  
322 3% 68%  
323 3% 65%  
324 1.1% 62%  
325 2% 61%  
326 2% 60% Majority
327 2% 58%  
328 2% 56%  
329 1.3% 55%  
330 2% 53%  
331 1.3% 52%  
332 1.4% 50%  
333 2% 49%  
334 2% 47% Median
335 1.0% 45%  
336 2% 44%  
337 0.8% 42%  
338 2% 41%  
339 1.3% 39%  
340 1.0% 38%  
341 2% 37%  
342 1.2% 35%  
343 1.5% 34%  
344 1.5% 33%  
345 1.0% 31%  
346 1.0% 30%  
347 2% 29%  
348 2% 27%  
349 0.7% 26%  
350 1.3% 25%  
351 1.4% 24%  
352 1.2% 22%  
353 2% 21%  
354 1.2% 19%  
355 0.9% 18%  
356 0.9% 17% Last Result
357 2% 16%  
358 0.8% 14%  
359 1.1% 13%  
360 1.3% 12%  
361 1.1% 11%  
362 0.8% 10%  
363 0.5% 9%  
364 1.3% 8%  
365 0.9% 7%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.4% 5%  
368 0.5% 5%  
369 0.8% 4%  
370 0.8% 3%  
371 0.3% 3%  
372 0.7% 2%  
373 0.7% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.0%  
375 0.2% 0.8%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0.2% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.5%  
287 0.2% 99.4%  
288 0.1% 99.2%  
289 0.2% 99.1%  
290 0.2% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.7%  
292 0.2% 98.6%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.5% 97%  
298 0.7% 97%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.7% 95%  
302 0.6% 95%  
303 0.7% 94%  
304 1.1% 93%  
305 1.1% 92%  
306 0.9% 91%  
307 2% 90%  
308 2% 88%  
309 2% 87%  
310 2% 84%  
311 1.4% 82%  
312 1.4% 81%  
313 1.1% 79%  
314 2% 78%  
315 3% 77%  
316 3% 74%  
317 2% 72%  
318 4% 70%  
319 2% 66%  
320 1.3% 64%  
321 1.1% 62%  
322 3% 61%  
323 2% 59%  
324 2% 57%  
325 1.2% 56%  
326 1.4% 54% Majority
327 2% 53%  
328 0.7% 51%  
329 1.1% 50%  
330 3% 49% Median
331 1.1% 46%  
332 2% 45%  
333 0.7% 42%  
334 2% 42%  
335 0.8% 40%  
336 2% 39%  
337 0.9% 37%  
338 2% 36%  
339 0.8% 34%  
340 0.8% 33%  
341 2% 32%  
342 1.5% 30%  
343 2% 29%  
344 1.1% 27%  
345 1.2% 26%  
346 2% 25%  
347 0.8% 23%  
348 0.9% 22%  
349 1.3% 21%  
350 2% 20%  
351 1.1% 18%  
352 0.9% 17% Last Result
353 0.9% 16%  
354 2% 15%  
355 0.6% 13%  
356 1.3% 13%  
357 1.0% 12%  
358 1.2% 10%  
359 1.2% 9%  
360 1.0% 8%  
361 0.6% 7%  
362 0.6% 6%  
363 0.7% 6%  
364 1.1% 5%  
365 0.3% 4%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.9% 3%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.5% 2%  
370 0.5% 1.4%  
371 0.2% 0.9%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.4% 99.4%  
282 0.2% 99.0%  
283 0.5% 98.8%  
284 0.6% 98%  
285 1.0% 98%  
286 0.1% 97%  
287 0.4% 97%  
288 0.3% 96%  
289 0.6% 96%  
290 1.1% 95%  
291 1.1% 94%  
292 1.3% 93%  
293 1.0% 92%  
294 1.2% 91%  
295 0.4% 90%  
296 0.4% 89%  
297 1.2% 89%  
298 1.2% 88%  
299 0.9% 86%  
300 2% 85%  
301 0.9% 83% Last Result
302 0.9% 83%  
303 1.2% 82%  
304 0.7% 80%  
305 0.7% 80%  
306 3% 79%  
307 3% 76%  
308 1.1% 73%  
309 1.1% 72%  
310 1.4% 71%  
311 2% 69%  
312 1.4% 68%  
313 0.8% 66%  
314 1.0% 66%  
315 1.1% 65%  
316 2% 63%  
317 2% 61%  
318 2% 60%  
319 1.2% 58%  
320 1.4% 57%  
321 2% 55%  
322 2% 53%  
323 2% 51%  
324 1.5% 50%  
325 2% 48%  
326 0.6% 46% Median, Majority
327 2% 46%  
328 2% 43%  
329 0.7% 41%  
330 2% 41%  
331 1.2% 39%  
332 2% 37%  
333 2% 35%  
334 3% 33%  
335 2% 30%  
336 2% 28%  
337 3% 26%  
338 3% 24%  
339 2% 21%  
340 1.4% 19%  
341 2% 17%  
342 2% 16%  
343 1.3% 14%  
344 2% 12%  
345 2% 10%  
346 1.5% 8%  
347 1.2% 7%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 0.6% 4%  
350 0.6% 4%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.7% 3%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.3%  
356 0.3% 1.1%  
357 0.3% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.4% 99.2%  
279 0.1% 98.8%  
280 0.9% 98.6%  
281 0.8% 98%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.2% 97%  
284 0.4% 96%  
285 0.5% 96%  
286 0.9% 96%  
287 0.7% 95%  
288 0.6% 94%  
289 1.5% 93%  
290 1.3% 92%  
291 0.9% 90%  
292 1.4% 90%  
293 0.9% 88%  
294 0.6% 87%  
295 1.3% 87%  
296 1.4% 85%  
297 1.4% 84% Last Result
298 0.7% 82%  
299 0.8% 82%  
300 0.7% 81%  
301 2% 80%  
302 2% 78%  
303 2% 77%  
304 2% 74%  
305 1.3% 72%  
306 2% 71%  
307 0.8% 69%  
308 1.0% 68%  
309 1.3% 67%  
310 1.1% 66%  
311 1.1% 65%  
312 1.4% 64%  
313 1.2% 62%  
314 3% 61%  
315 0.8% 58%  
316 0.9% 58%  
317 2% 57%  
318 2% 55%  
319 2% 52%  
320 0.9% 51%  
321 3% 50%  
322 0.9% 47% Median
323 1.0% 46%  
324 3% 45%  
325 0.8% 42%  
326 1.5% 41% Majority
327 1.5% 40%  
328 2% 38%  
329 2% 37%  
330 2% 35%  
331 2% 33%  
332 4% 31%  
333 3% 27%  
334 1.0% 24%  
335 3% 23%  
336 2% 20%  
337 2% 18%  
338 1.3% 16%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 2% 11%  
342 2% 9%  
343 1.0% 7%  
344 1.1% 6%  
345 0.9% 5%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.4% 3%  
348 0.7% 3%  
349 0.6% 2%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.2% 1.4%  
352 0.2% 1.2%  
353 0.3% 1.0%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.3% 99.4%  
274 0.3% 99.2%  
275 0.2% 98.9%  
276 0.3% 98.7%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.7% 98%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.6% 97%  
281 0.6% 96%  
282 1.1% 96%  
283 1.2% 95%  
284 1.5% 93%  
285 2% 92%  
286 2% 90%  
287 1.3% 88%  
288 2% 86%  
289 2% 84%  
290 1.4% 83%  
291 2% 81%  
292 3% 79%  
293 3% 76%  
294 2% 74%  
295 2% 72%  
296 3% 70%  
297 2% 67%  
298 2% 65%  
299 1.2% 63%  
300 2% 61%  
301 0.7% 59%  
302 2% 59%  
303 2% 57%  
304 0.6% 54%  
305 2% 54%  
306 1.5% 52% Median
307 2% 50%  
308 2% 49%  
309 2% 47%  
310 1.4% 45%  
311 1.2% 43%  
312 2% 42%  
313 2% 40%  
314 2% 39%  
315 1.1% 37%  
316 1.0% 35%  
317 0.8% 34%  
318 1.4% 34%  
319 2% 32%  
320 1.4% 31%  
321 1.1% 29%  
322 1.1% 28%  
323 3% 27%  
324 3% 24%  
325 0.7% 21%  
326 0.7% 20% Majority
327 1.2% 20%  
328 0.9% 18%  
329 0.9% 17% Last Result
330 2% 17%  
331 0.9% 15%  
332 1.2% 14%  
333 1.2% 12%  
334 0.4% 11%  
335 0.4% 11%  
336 1.2% 10%  
337 1.0% 9%  
338 1.3% 8%  
339 1.2% 7%  
340 1.1% 6%  
341 0.6% 5%  
342 0.3% 4%  
343 0.4% 4%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 1.0% 3%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.2%  
349 0.4% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.4%  
260 0.5% 99.1%  
261 0.5% 98.6%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.9% 98%  
264 0.5% 97%  
265 0.3% 96%  
266 1.1% 96%  
267 0.7% 95%  
268 0.6% 94%  
269 0.6% 94%  
270 1.0% 93%  
271 1.2% 92%  
272 1.2% 91%  
273 1.0% 90%  
274 1.3% 88%  
275 0.6% 87%  
276 2% 87%  
277 0.9% 85%  
278 0.9% 84% Last Result
279 1.1% 83%  
280 2% 82%  
281 1.3% 80%  
282 0.9% 79%  
283 0.8% 78%  
284 2% 77%  
285 1.2% 75%  
286 1.1% 74%  
287 2% 73%  
288 1.5% 71%  
289 2% 70%  
290 0.8% 68%  
291 0.8% 67%  
292 2% 66%  
293 0.9% 64%  
294 2% 63%  
295 0.8% 61%  
296 2% 60%  
297 0.7% 58%  
298 2% 58%  
299 1.1% 55%  
300 3% 54%  
301 1.1% 51%  
302 0.7% 50% Median
303 2% 49%  
304 1.4% 47%  
305 1.2% 46%  
306 2% 44%  
307 2% 43%  
308 3% 41%  
309 1.1% 39%  
310 1.3% 38%  
311 2% 36%  
312 4% 34%  
313 2% 30%  
314 3% 28%  
315 3% 26%  
316 2% 23%  
317 1.1% 22%  
318 1.4% 21%  
319 1.4% 19%  
320 2% 18%  
321 2% 16%  
322 2% 13%  
323 2% 12%  
324 0.9% 10%  
325 1.0% 9%  
326 1.1% 8% Majority
327 0.7% 7%  
328 0.6% 6%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.4% 4%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 1.1%  
342 0.1% 0.9%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.2% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.4%  
256 0.2% 99.2%  
257 0.7% 99.0%  
258 0.7% 98%  
259 0.3% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 0.8% 97%  
262 0.5% 96%  
263 0.4% 95%  
264 1.0% 95%  
265 0.9% 94%  
266 1.3% 93%  
267 0.5% 92%  
268 0.8% 91%  
269 1.1% 90%  
270 1.3% 89%  
271 1.1% 88%  
272 0.8% 87%  
273 2% 86%  
274 0.9% 84% Last Result
275 0.9% 83%  
276 1.2% 82%  
277 2% 81%  
278 1.2% 79%  
279 1.4% 78%  
280 1.2% 76%  
281 0.7% 75%  
282 2% 74%  
283 2% 73%  
284 1.0% 71%  
285 1.0% 70%  
286 1.5% 69%  
287 1.5% 67%  
288 1.2% 66%  
289 2% 65%  
290 1.0% 63%  
291 1.3% 62%  
292 2% 61%  
293 0.8% 59%  
294 2% 58%  
295 1.0% 56%  
296 2% 55%  
297 2% 53%  
298 1.4% 51% Median
299 1.3% 50%  
300 2% 48%  
301 1.3% 47%  
302 2% 45%  
303 2% 44%  
304 2% 42%  
305 2% 40%  
306 1.1% 39%  
307 3% 38%  
308 3% 35%  
309 2% 32%  
310 2% 30%  
311 3% 28%  
312 2% 25%  
313 1.3% 23%  
314 2% 22%  
315 0.8% 20%  
316 3% 19%  
317 2% 16%  
318 2% 14%  
319 2% 12%  
320 1.0% 10%  
321 1.1% 9%  
322 0.7% 8%  
323 1.3% 8%  
324 0.5% 6%  
325 0.6% 6%  
326 0.5% 5% Majority
327 0.7% 5%  
328 0.4% 4%  
329 0.3% 4%  
330 0.3% 3%  
331 0.5% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.1% 1.5%  
336 0.1% 1.4%  
337 0.2% 1.3%  
338 0.2% 1.0%  
339 0.2% 0.8%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.3%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.2% 99.0%  
256 0.4% 98.8%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.9% 97%  
261 0.4% 96%  
262 0.8% 96%  
263 1.1% 95%  
264 2% 94%  
265 0.8% 92%  
266 2% 92%  
267 2% 90%  
268 2% 88%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 84%  
271 2% 82%  
272 2% 80%  
273 2% 78%  
274 3% 76%  
275 2% 73%  
276 2% 71%  
277 3% 69%  
278 2% 66%  
279 1.4% 64%  
280 0.9% 63%  
281 1.1% 62%  
282 3% 61%  
283 2% 57%  
284 0.5% 56%  
285 2% 55%  
286 2% 53%  
287 1.2% 51%  
288 1.0% 50% Median
289 0.9% 49%  
290 1.3% 48%  
291 2% 46%  
292 2% 45%  
293 1.0% 43%  
294 1.2% 42%  
295 2% 41%  
296 0.9% 38%  
297 1.1% 38%  
298 1.4% 36%  
299 0.9% 35%  
300 1.5% 34%  
301 1.3% 33%  
302 1.0% 31%  
303 0.9% 30%  
304 1.3% 29%  
305 0.9% 28%  
306 3% 27%  
307 2% 24%  
308 1.2% 23%  
309 2% 22%  
310 2% 20%  
311 0.9% 18%  
312 1.4% 18%  
313 0.9% 16%  
314 1.4% 15%  
315 0.6% 14%  
316 1.3% 13%  
317 1.1% 12%  
318 0.8% 11%  
319 2% 10%  
320 0.8% 9%  
321 0.6% 8% Last Result
322 1.0% 7%  
323 1.0% 6%  
324 0.8% 5%  
325 0.7% 4%  
326 0.3% 4% Majority
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.4% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.4%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.7%  
335 0.2% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.2% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 98.9%  
253 0.2% 98.7%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.7% 96%  
259 0.7% 96%  
260 2% 95%  
261 0.8% 93%  
262 2% 92%  
263 0.9% 90%  
264 2% 89%  
265 2% 87%  
266 2% 85%  
267 2% 84%  
268 4% 82%  
269 2% 78%  
270 0.9% 76%  
271 2% 75%  
272 3% 73%  
273 3% 70%  
274 1.3% 68%  
275 2% 66%  
276 0.7% 64%  
277 2% 63%  
278 1.5% 61%  
279 3% 60%  
280 0.7% 57%  
281 2% 56%  
282 3% 54%  
283 1.2% 52%  
284 0.9% 51% Median
285 1.3% 50%  
286 1.2% 48%  
287 1.3% 47%  
288 1.5% 46%  
289 2% 44%  
290 1.4% 42%  
291 0.7% 41%  
292 2% 40%  
293 1.4% 38%  
294 1.2% 37%  
295 1.0% 35%  
296 2% 34%  
297 0.9% 33%  
298 1.1% 32%  
299 1.5% 31%  
300 0.9% 29%  
301 1.2% 28%  
302 2% 27%  
303 3% 26%  
304 0.9% 23%  
305 1.3% 22%  
306 2% 21%  
307 0.8% 18%  
308 1.2% 18%  
309 1.4% 16%  
310 0.6% 15%  
311 2% 14%  
312 1.2% 13%  
313 0.6% 12%  
314 0.5% 11%  
315 0.8% 11%  
316 0.8% 10%  
317 2% 9% Last Result
318 0.4% 7%  
319 2% 7%  
320 0.6% 5%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.5% 4%  
323 0.4% 3%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.7% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0.5% 1.4%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.7%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.7%  
240 0.5% 99.5%  
241 0.4% 99.0%  
242 0.8% 98.5%  
243 2% 98%  
244 0.8% 96%  
245 0.5% 95%  
246 0.2% 95%  
247 0.1% 95%  
248 0.2% 94%  
249 0.5% 94%  
250 1.3% 94%  
251 3% 92%  
252 1.4% 90%  
253 1.2% 88%  
254 0.5% 87%  
255 0.6% 86%  
256 0.2% 86%  
257 0.2% 86%  
258 0.4% 85%  
259 5% 85%  
260 1.3% 81%  
261 2% 79%  
262 2% 78%  
263 1.0% 76%  
264 0.5% 75%  
265 2% 75%  
266 2% 73% Last Result
267 1.1% 71%  
268 2% 70%  
269 1.1% 68%  
270 2% 67%  
271 1.0% 64%  
272 1.5% 63%  
273 1.1% 62%  
274 1.4% 61%  
275 2% 60%  
276 2% 58%  
277 2% 56%  
278 1.3% 54%  
279 3% 53%  
280 2% 50% Median
281 2% 48%  
282 2% 46%  
283 0.8% 45%  
284 0.7% 44%  
285 0.3% 43%  
286 2% 43%  
287 3% 41%  
288 5% 38%  
289 2% 33%  
290 2% 31%  
291 2% 29%  
292 0.4% 27%  
293 3% 27%  
294 2% 24%  
295 2% 22%  
296 3% 20%  
297 2% 16%  
298 2% 14%  
299 2% 12%  
300 1.2% 10%  
301 1.2% 9%  
302 0.5% 8%  
303 0.6% 7%  
304 0.5% 7%  
305 0.8% 6%  
306 1.2% 6%  
307 0.6% 4%  
308 0.3% 4%  
309 0.4% 4%  
310 0.4% 3%  
311 0.3% 3%  
312 0.3% 3%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.1% 1.4%  
317 0.2% 1.3%  
318 0.2% 1.1%  
319 0.2% 0.8%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.4% 99.6%  
237 0.4% 99.1%  
238 1.1% 98.7%  
239 1.2% 98%  
240 0.5% 97%  
241 0.5% 96%  
242 0.8% 96%  
243 0.4% 95%  
244 0.4% 94%  
245 0.7% 94%  
246 1.4% 93%  
247 1.2% 92%  
248 0.5% 91%  
249 2% 90%  
250 1.0% 88%  
251 0.9% 87%  
252 0.4% 86%  
253 0.3% 86%  
254 1.4% 85%  
255 1.1% 84%  
256 4% 83%  
257 2% 79%  
258 0.8% 77%  
259 0.5% 77%  
260 2% 76%  
261 2% 75%  
262 2% 72% Last Result
263 1.2% 71%  
264 0.4% 69%  
265 2% 69%  
266 2% 67%  
267 0.8% 65%  
268 0.2% 64%  
269 1.1% 64%  
270 3% 63%  
271 2% 60%  
272 1.3% 58%  
273 2% 57%  
274 1.4% 55%  
275 1.4% 53%  
276 2% 52% Median
277 1.5% 50%  
278 2% 48%  
279 1.0% 46%  
280 1.0% 45%  
281 1.3% 44%  
282 2% 43%  
283 2% 41%  
284 3% 39%  
285 1.2% 36%  
286 4% 35%  
287 2% 31%  
288 2% 28%  
289 2% 26%  
290 1.3% 25%  
291 2% 23%  
292 4% 21%  
293 2% 17%  
294 3% 15%  
295 2% 12%  
296 1.1% 10%  
297 0.9% 9%  
298 1.1% 9%  
299 0.4% 8%  
300 0.5% 7%  
301 0.6% 7%  
302 0.9% 6%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 0.7% 5%  
305 0.6% 4%  
306 0.4% 4%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.4% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.4% 1.4%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.1% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations