Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 10–11 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.5–40.5% 37.1–40.9% 36.7–41.3% 36.0–42.0%
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.0% 35.5–38.5% 35.1–38.9% 34.8–39.3% 34.1–40.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.0% 2.8–4.2% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 290 266–305 260–310 255–316 242–325
Conservative Party 317 264 251–290 246–297 242–303 237–314
Liberal Democrats 12 27 24–29 22–30 21–30 18–33
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 47 32–51 28–52 24–54 12–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.3% 99.2%  
248 0.1% 98.9%  
249 0.1% 98.8%  
250 0.4% 98.7%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.5% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 0.3% 96%  
260 0.8% 96%  
261 1.4% 95%  
262 0.7% 93% Last Result
263 0.4% 93%  
264 0.9% 92%  
265 0.7% 91%  
266 0.8% 91%  
267 0.7% 90%  
268 0.3% 89%  
269 1.1% 89%  
270 1.2% 88%  
271 1.1% 87%  
272 1.0% 85%  
273 1.4% 84%  
274 2% 83%  
275 0.8% 82%  
276 0.8% 81%  
277 1.1% 80%  
278 3% 79%  
279 1.4% 76%  
280 1.2% 75%  
281 1.4% 74%  
282 3% 72%  
283 2% 69%  
284 3% 67%  
285 3% 64%  
286 2% 61%  
287 1.3% 59%  
288 2% 57%  
289 3% 55%  
290 6% 52% Median
291 2% 46%  
292 3% 44%  
293 2% 41%  
294 4% 38%  
295 3% 35%  
296 5% 32%  
297 2% 27%  
298 2% 25%  
299 3% 22%  
300 1.3% 20%  
301 3% 18%  
302 2% 16%  
303 1.3% 14%  
304 2% 12%  
305 1.2% 11%  
306 1.5% 10%  
307 1.0% 8%  
308 1.0% 7%  
309 0.6% 6%  
310 0.8% 5%  
311 0.9% 5%  
312 0.3% 4%  
313 0.3% 3%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.4%  
320 0.2% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.2% 99.0%  
240 0.4% 98.8%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.9% 98%  
243 0.6% 97%  
244 0.4% 96%  
245 0.7% 96%  
246 0.6% 95%  
247 0.7% 95%  
248 2% 94%  
249 1.1% 92%  
250 1.1% 91%  
251 2% 90%  
252 3% 88%  
253 4% 85%  
254 3% 82%  
255 3% 79%  
256 2% 76%  
257 2% 74%  
258 3% 72%  
259 2% 70%  
260 3% 68%  
261 4% 65%  
262 5% 60%  
263 5% 56%  
264 2% 51% Median
265 2% 48%  
266 2% 46%  
267 3% 44%  
268 3% 41%  
269 3% 38%  
270 1.3% 35%  
271 2% 34%  
272 1.2% 32%  
273 2% 31%  
274 2% 29%  
275 1.3% 27%  
276 2% 26%  
277 1.5% 25%  
278 2% 23%  
279 0.7% 21%  
280 1.4% 21%  
281 0.6% 19%  
282 1.3% 19%  
283 1.0% 17%  
284 1.4% 16%  
285 0.9% 15%  
286 0.8% 14%  
287 0.9% 13%  
288 0.9% 12%  
289 1.0% 11%  
290 1.3% 10%  
291 0.3% 9%  
292 0.8% 9%  
293 0.4% 8%  
294 0.6% 7%  
295 1.0% 7%  
296 0.4% 6%  
297 0.9% 5%  
298 0.2% 5%  
299 0.8% 4%  
300 0.3% 4%  
301 0.4% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.3%  
310 0.1% 1.2%  
311 0.3% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.3% Last Result
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.3% 99.7%  
19 0.6% 99.4%  
20 1.0% 98.8%  
21 2% 98%  
22 2% 96%  
23 2% 94%  
24 4% 92%  
25 8% 88%  
26 10% 80%  
27 24% 70% Median
28 28% 47%  
29 12% 19%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.5% 2%  
32 0.3% 1.0%  
33 0.3% 0.7%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.8%  
9 0.2% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.6%  
11 0.1% 99.6%  
12 0.1% 99.5%  
13 0.2% 99.5%  
14 0% 99.3%  
15 0.1% 99.2%  
16 0.1% 99.1%  
17 0.2% 99.0%  
18 0.1% 98.8%  
19 0.1% 98.7%  
20 0.1% 98.6%  
21 0.1% 98.5%  
22 0.3% 98%  
23 0.2% 98%  
24 0.7% 98%  
25 0.5% 97%  
26 1.2% 97%  
27 0.1% 95%  
28 3% 95%  
29 2% 92%  
30 0.5% 91%  
31 0.2% 90%  
32 0.4% 90%  
33 1.0% 90%  
34 0.6% 89%  
35 2% 88% Last Result
36 0.5% 86%  
37 0.8% 85%  
38 2% 84%  
39 3% 83%  
40 3% 80%  
41 1.2% 78%  
42 3% 76%  
43 1.3% 74%  
44 5% 72%  
45 3% 67%  
46 8% 64%  
47 9% 56% Median
48 5% 48%  
49 5% 43%  
50 18% 38%  
51 11% 20%  
52 4% 8%  
53 0.8% 4%  
54 3% 3%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 6% 98.7%  
2 19% 93%  
3 38% 74% Median
4 12% 36% Last Result
5 24% 24%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 366 98% 340–379 333–384 327–388 316–393
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 363 97% 337–377 330–381 323–385 312–391
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 339 78% 314–352 307–355 302–361 290–365
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 336 72% 311–350 303–353 298–357 287–362
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 313 23% 297–337 292–344 287–350 277–362
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 310 18% 294–334 289–340 284–346 274–358
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 320 34% 296–336 290–341 284–346 272–356
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 317 24% 293–333 286–338 280–343 268–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 291 3% 278–316 274–323 269–328 265–340
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 293 0.7% 269–308 264–313 258–319 247–328
Labour Party 262 290 0.5% 266–305 260–310 255–316 242–325
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 267 0.1% 253–293 249–300 245–307 239–318
Conservative Party 317 264 0% 251–290 246–297 242–303 237–314

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.7% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.5%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0.3% 99.2%  
320 0.1% 99.0%  
321 0.1% 98.8%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0.2% 98%  
325 0.4% 98%  
326 0.2% 98% Majority
327 0.2% 98%  
328 0.3% 97%  
329 0.4% 97%  
330 0.3% 97%  
331 0.8% 96%  
332 0.2% 96%  
333 0.9% 95%  
334 0.4% 94%  
335 1.0% 94%  
336 0.6% 93%  
337 0.4% 93%  
338 0.8% 92%  
339 0.3% 91%  
340 1.3% 91%  
341 1.0% 90%  
342 0.9% 89%  
343 0.9% 88%  
344 0.8% 87%  
345 0.9% 86%  
346 1.4% 85%  
347 1.1% 84%  
348 1.3% 83%  
349 0.6% 81%  
350 1.4% 81%  
351 0.7% 79%  
352 2% 79%  
353 1.4% 77%  
354 2% 75%  
355 1.3% 74%  
356 2% 73%  
357 2% 71%  
358 1.2% 69%  
359 2% 68%  
360 1.3% 66%  
361 3% 64%  
362 3% 62%  
363 3% 59%  
364 2% 56%  
365 2% 54%  
366 2% 52%  
367 5% 49% Median
368 5% 44%  
369 5% 40%  
370 3% 35%  
371 2% 32%  
372 2% 30%  
373 2% 28%  
374 2% 25%  
375 3% 24%  
376 3% 21%  
377 4% 18%  
378 3% 15%  
379 2% 12%  
380 1.1% 10%  
381 1.1% 9%  
382 2% 8%  
383 0.8% 6%  
384 0.5% 5%  
385 0.7% 5%  
386 0.4% 4%  
387 0.6% 4%  
388 0.9% 3%  
389 0.5% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.3% 0.9%  
393 0.2% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7% Last Result
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0.1% 99.4%  
315 0.2% 99.3%  
316 0.2% 99.1%  
317 0.2% 98.9%  
318 0.2% 98.8%  
319 0.1% 98.6%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.2% 97%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0.3% 97% Majority
327 0.5% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.2% 96%  
330 1.2% 95%  
331 0.4% 94%  
332 0.3% 94%  
333 1.2% 93%  
334 0.3% 92%  
335 0.7% 92%  
336 0.8% 91%  
337 1.0% 90%  
338 0.5% 89%  
339 1.2% 89%  
340 1.2% 88%  
341 0.7% 87%  
342 1.2% 86%  
343 2% 85%  
344 0.5% 83%  
345 1.2% 82%  
346 1.2% 81%  
347 1.0% 80%  
348 0.8% 79%  
349 2% 78%  
350 0.7% 76%  
351 2% 76%  
352 1.2% 73%  
353 2% 72%  
354 2% 70%  
355 1.4% 68%  
356 1.3% 67%  
357 1.3% 65%  
358 3% 64%  
359 2% 61%  
360 3% 59%  
361 4% 56%  
362 2% 52%  
363 0.8% 50%  
364 7% 49% Median
365 4% 43%  
366 2% 38%  
367 5% 36%  
368 2% 32%  
369 2% 29%  
370 2% 27%  
371 2% 25%  
372 3% 23%  
373 4% 20%  
374 2% 17%  
375 2% 14%  
376 3% 13%  
377 1.1% 10%  
378 1.5% 9%  
379 1.5% 7%  
380 0.6% 6%  
381 0.8% 5%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.5% 4%  
384 0.7% 3%  
385 0.5% 3%  
386 0.6% 2%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0.3% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 99.2%  
294 0.1% 99.0%  
295 0.2% 98.9%  
296 0.1% 98.7%  
297 0.2% 98.6%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.4% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 98% Last Result
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 0.8% 97%  
306 0.6% 96%  
307 0.1% 95%  
308 1.5% 95%  
309 0.4% 93%  
310 0.5% 93%  
311 0.4% 93%  
312 1.0% 92%  
313 0.6% 91%  
314 1.2% 91%  
315 1.4% 89%  
316 0.8% 88%  
317 0.3% 87%  
318 2% 87%  
319 0.4% 85%  
320 0.7% 85%  
321 1.2% 84%  
322 0.9% 83%  
323 1.2% 82%  
324 1.3% 81%  
325 2% 80%  
326 1.2% 78% Majority
327 2% 77%  
328 1.4% 75%  
329 2% 73%  
330 0.9% 71%  
331 3% 70%  
332 1.0% 67%  
333 2% 66%  
334 1.2% 64%  
335 5% 63%  
336 2% 58%  
337 2% 56%  
338 3% 54%  
339 6% 52%  
340 4% 46% Median
341 4% 42%  
342 3% 38%  
343 2% 35%  
344 2% 33%  
345 3% 31%  
346 3% 28%  
347 3% 25%  
348 2% 23%  
349 3% 20%  
350 3% 17%  
351 2% 13%  
352 1.2% 11%  
353 3% 10%  
354 1.2% 7%  
355 1.0% 6%  
356 0.2% 5%  
357 0.5% 5%  
358 0.9% 4%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.4% 3%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.6% 2%  
363 0.4% 1.4%  
364 0.5% 1.0%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.2% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.2% 99.1%  
291 0.1% 98.9%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.2% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.2% 98% Last Result
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.2% 97%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 1.1% 96%  
303 0.4% 95%  
304 0.2% 95%  
305 1.1% 95%  
306 1.0% 94%  
307 0.4% 93%  
308 0.4% 92%  
309 0.9% 92%  
310 0.6% 91%  
311 0.9% 90%  
312 1.2% 89%  
313 1.3% 88%  
314 0.5% 87%  
315 1.4% 86%  
316 0.9% 85%  
317 0.8% 84%  
318 1.1% 83%  
319 0.8% 82%  
320 0.8% 81%  
321 2% 81%  
322 1.2% 79%  
323 0.8% 78%  
324 3% 77%  
325 2% 74%  
326 1.3% 72% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 3% 69%  
329 0.9% 67%  
330 2% 66%  
331 1.4% 63%  
332 3% 62%  
333 4% 59%  
334 1.3% 55%  
335 3% 53%  
336 7% 51%  
337 2% 44% Median
338 4% 42%  
339 3% 38%  
340 4% 35%  
341 2% 31%  
342 2% 30%  
343 3% 28%  
344 2% 25%  
345 3% 22%  
346 4% 19%  
347 2% 15%  
348 2% 13%  
349 0.9% 11%  
350 3% 10%  
351 1.1% 7%  
352 0.8% 6%  
353 0.6% 5%  
354 0.3% 5%  
355 0.7% 4%  
356 0.6% 3%  
357 0.6% 3%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.6% 2%  
360 0.4% 1.3%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.2% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.4% 98.8%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.4% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 0.5% 97%  
291 0.5% 96%  
292 0.7% 96%  
293 1.1% 95%  
294 0.7% 94%  
295 1.0% 93%  
296 1.2% 92%  
297 1.1% 91%  
298 1.3% 90%  
299 1.3% 89%  
300 2% 87%  
301 2% 85%  
302 2% 83%  
303 2% 81%  
304 3% 79%  
305 3% 76%  
306 2% 74%  
307 4% 71%  
308 3% 68%  
309 2% 65%  
310 3% 63%  
311 4% 60%  
312 5% 57%  
313 3% 51%  
314 2% 48% Median
315 2% 46%  
316 4% 44%  
317 2% 40%  
318 3% 39%  
319 2% 36%  
320 1.2% 33%  
321 3% 32%  
322 3% 29%  
323 0.6% 26%  
324 2% 26%  
325 1.0% 24%  
326 2% 23% Majority
327 2% 21%  
328 1.0% 20%  
329 0.9% 19%  
330 0.7% 18%  
331 2% 17%  
332 1.2% 15%  
333 1.3% 14%  
334 0.7% 13%  
335 0.7% 12%  
336 0.9% 12%  
337 0.7% 11%  
338 0.5% 10%  
339 0.9% 9%  
340 0.7% 8%  
341 1.3% 8%  
342 0.5% 6%  
343 1.0% 6%  
344 0.2% 5%  
345 0.7% 5%  
346 0.3% 4%  
347 0.4% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.6% 3%  
350 0.2% 3%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.1% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.1% 1.4%  
356 0.2% 1.3% Last Result
357 0.2% 1.1%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.1% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.8%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.3%  
278 0.2% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.3% 98.8%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.4% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0.5% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 0.5% 95%  
290 1.0% 95%  
291 0.9% 94%  
292 0.8% 93%  
293 2% 92%  
294 1.0% 91%  
295 0.7% 89%  
296 2% 89%  
297 2% 87%  
298 2% 85%  
299 3% 83%  
300 2% 80%  
301 1.4% 79%  
302 4% 77%  
303 3% 73%  
304 4% 71%  
305 2% 66%  
306 2% 64%  
307 3% 62%  
308 3% 59%  
309 5% 56%  
310 4% 51%  
311 1.5% 47% Median
312 3% 46%  
313 3% 43%  
314 2% 40%  
315 3% 38%  
316 2% 35%  
317 2% 33%  
318 2% 31%  
319 2% 29%  
320 1.3% 26%  
321 2% 25%  
322 1.3% 23%  
323 1.4% 22%  
324 2% 21%  
325 0.7% 19%  
326 1.2% 18% Majority
327 1.1% 17%  
328 1.1% 16%  
329 1.4% 15%  
330 1.1% 14%  
331 0.6% 12%  
332 0.4% 12%  
333 0.2% 11%  
334 2% 11%  
335 0.7% 10%  
336 0.6% 9%  
337 0.9% 8%  
338 1.0% 7%  
339 0.3% 6%  
340 1.5% 6%  
341 0.2% 5%  
342 0.4% 4%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 0.4% 4%  
345 0.4% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
353 0.2% 1.2%  
354 0.1% 1.0%  
355 0.1% 0.9%  
356 0.2% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.1% 99.4%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.1% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.1%  
277 0.2% 99.0%  
278 0.2% 98.8% Last Result
279 0.2% 98.6%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.3% 96%  
288 0.4% 96%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 1.5% 95%  
291 0.3% 94%  
292 1.0% 94%  
293 0.9% 93%  
294 0.6% 92%  
295 0.7% 91%  
296 2% 90%  
297 0.2% 89%  
298 0.4% 89%  
299 0.6% 88%  
300 1.1% 88%  
301 1.4% 86%  
302 1.1% 85%  
303 1.1% 84%  
304 1.2% 83%  
305 0.7% 82%  
306 2% 81%  
307 1.4% 79%  
308 1.3% 78%  
309 2% 77%  
310 1.3% 75%  
311 2% 74%  
312 2% 71%  
313 2% 69%  
314 2% 67%  
315 3% 65%  
316 2% 62%  
317 3% 60%  
318 3% 57%  
319 1.5% 54%  
320 4% 53% Median
321 5% 49%  
322 3% 44%  
323 3% 41%  
324 2% 38%  
325 2% 36%  
326 4% 34% Majority
327 3% 29%  
328 4% 27%  
329 1.3% 23%  
330 2% 21%  
331 3% 20%  
332 2% 17%  
333 2% 15%  
334 2% 13%  
335 0.7% 11%  
336 1.1% 11%  
337 2% 9%  
338 0.8% 8%  
339 0.9% 7%  
340 1.0% 6%  
341 0.5% 5%  
342 0.8% 5%  
343 0.4% 4%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.4% 3%  
346 0.3% 3%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.2% 1.2%  
352 0.2% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.2%  
272 0.1% 99.1%  
273 0.2% 99.0%  
274 0.2% 98.9% Last Result
275 0.1% 98.7%  
276 0.3% 98.6%  
277 0.1% 98%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 0.4% 97%  
283 0.4% 96%  
284 0.3% 96%  
285 0.7% 96%  
286 0.2% 95%  
287 1.0% 95%  
288 0.5% 94%  
289 1.3% 94%  
290 0.7% 92%  
291 0.9% 92%  
292 0.5% 91%  
293 0.7% 90%  
294 0.9% 89%  
295 0.7% 88%  
296 0.7% 88%  
297 1.3% 87%  
298 1.2% 86%  
299 2% 85%  
300 0.7% 83%  
301 0.8% 82%  
302 1.0% 81%  
303 2% 80%  
304 2% 79%  
305 1.0% 77%  
306 2% 76%  
307 0.6% 74%  
308 3% 74%  
309 3% 71%  
310 1.2% 68%  
311 2% 67%  
312 3% 64%  
313 2% 61%  
314 4% 60%  
315 2% 56%  
316 2% 54%  
317 3% 52% Median
318 5% 49%  
319 4% 43%  
320 2% 40%  
321 2% 37%  
322 3% 35%  
323 4% 32%  
324 2% 29%  
325 3% 26%  
326 3% 24% Majority
327 2% 21%  
328 2% 19%  
329 2% 17%  
330 2% 15%  
331 1.3% 13%  
332 1.3% 11%  
333 1.1% 10%  
334 1.2% 9%  
335 1.0% 8%  
336 0.7% 7%  
337 1.1% 6%  
338 0.7% 5%  
339 0.5% 4%  
340 0.5% 4%  
341 0.2% 3%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.2% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.5% 99.5%  
267 0.4% 99.0%  
268 0.6% 98.6%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.9% 97%  
273 0.5% 96%  
274 0.2% 95%  
275 1.0% 95%  
276 1.2% 94%  
277 3% 93%  
278 1.2% 90%  
279 2% 89%  
280 3% 87%  
281 3% 83%  
282 3% 80%  
283 3% 77%  
284 3% 75%  
285 3% 72%  
286 2% 69%  
287 2% 67%  
288 3% 65%  
289 4% 62%  
290 4% 58%  
291 6% 54% Median
292 3% 48%  
293 2% 46%  
294 2% 44%  
295 5% 42%  
296 1.3% 37%  
297 2% 36%  
298 1.0% 34%  
299 3% 33%  
300 0.9% 30%  
301 2% 29%  
302 1.4% 27%  
303 2% 25%  
304 1.2% 23%  
305 2% 22%  
306 1.3% 20%  
307 1.2% 19%  
308 0.8% 18%  
309 1.2% 17%  
310 0.7% 16%  
311 0.4% 15%  
312 2% 15%  
313 0.3% 13%  
314 0.7% 13%  
315 1.4% 12%  
316 1.2% 11%  
317 0.6% 9%  
318 1.0% 9%  
319 0.4% 8%  
320 0.5% 7%  
321 0.4% 7%  
322 1.5% 7%  
323 0.1% 5%  
324 0.6% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.3% 3% Majority
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.3% 3%  
329 0.2% 2% Last Result
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.1% 1.4%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0.1% 1.1%  
337 0.1% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0% 99.4%  
249 0% 99.3%  
250 0.3% 99.3%  
251 0.2% 99.0%  
252 0.2% 98.9%  
253 0.2% 98.7%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.1% 98%  
256 0% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.1% 97%  
261 0.2% 97%  
262 0.5% 96%  
263 0.6% 96%  
264 2% 95%  
265 1.0% 94%  
266 0.2% 93% Last Result
267 0.7% 93%  
268 1.3% 92%  
269 1.2% 91%  
270 0.2% 89%  
271 0.2% 89%  
272 0.4% 89%  
273 1.2% 89%  
274 2% 87%  
275 0.8% 86%  
276 0.9% 85%  
277 1.2% 84%  
278 1.1% 83%  
279 2% 82%  
280 0.4% 80%  
281 3% 79%  
282 1.3% 77%  
283 2% 76%  
284 0.8% 74%  
285 3% 73%  
286 2% 70%  
287 4% 68%  
288 2% 64%  
289 3% 62%  
290 1.4% 59%  
291 0.4% 57%  
292 6% 57%  
293 4% 51% Median
294 2% 47%  
295 3% 45%  
296 3% 41%  
297 3% 39%  
298 3% 35%  
299 4% 33%  
300 4% 29%  
301 4% 25%  
302 2% 22%  
303 2% 20%  
304 2% 18%  
305 2% 16%  
306 0.5% 13%  
307 2% 13%  
308 2% 11%  
309 1.3% 10%  
310 1.1% 8%  
311 0.9% 7%  
312 0.7% 6%  
313 0.9% 6%  
314 0.9% 5%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.4% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0.1% 1.2%  
324 0.2% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 0.9%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.4%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.3% 99.2%  
248 0.1% 98.9%  
249 0.1% 98.8%  
250 0.4% 98.7%  
251 0.1% 98%  
252 0% 98%  
253 0.1% 98%  
254 0.3% 98%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.5% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 0.3% 96%  
260 0.8% 96%  
261 1.4% 95%  
262 0.7% 93% Last Result
263 0.4% 93%  
264 0.9% 92%  
265 0.7% 91%  
266 0.8% 91%  
267 0.7% 90%  
268 0.3% 89%  
269 1.1% 89%  
270 1.2% 88%  
271 1.1% 87%  
272 1.0% 85%  
273 1.4% 84%  
274 2% 83%  
275 0.8% 82%  
276 0.8% 81%  
277 1.1% 80%  
278 3% 79%  
279 1.4% 76%  
280 1.2% 75%  
281 1.4% 74%  
282 3% 72%  
283 2% 69%  
284 3% 67%  
285 3% 64%  
286 2% 61%  
287 1.3% 59%  
288 2% 57%  
289 3% 55%  
290 6% 52% Median
291 2% 46%  
292 3% 44%  
293 2% 41%  
294 4% 38%  
295 3% 35%  
296 5% 32%  
297 2% 27%  
298 2% 25%  
299 3% 22%  
300 1.3% 20%  
301 3% 18%  
302 2% 16%  
303 1.3% 14%  
304 2% 12%  
305 1.2% 11%  
306 1.5% 10%  
307 1.0% 8%  
308 1.0% 7%  
309 0.6% 6%  
310 0.8% 5%  
311 0.9% 5%  
312 0.3% 4%  
313 0.3% 3%  
314 0.3% 3%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0.5% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.4%  
320 0.2% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.1% 0.8%  
323 0.1% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.6%  
325 0% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.6%  
240 0.1% 99.5%  
241 0.3% 99.3%  
242 0.2% 99.0%  
243 0.4% 98.9%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.6% 98%  
246 0.7% 97%  
247 0.5% 97%  
248 0.6% 96%  
249 0.9% 95%  
250 0.6% 95%  
251 1.5% 94%  
252 1.5% 93%  
253 1.1% 91%  
254 3% 90%  
255 2% 87%  
256 2% 86%  
257 4% 83%  
258 3% 80%  
259 2% 77%  
260 2% 75%  
261 2% 73%  
262 2% 71%  
263 5% 68%  
264 2% 64%  
265 4% 61%  
266 7% 57%  
267 0.8% 51% Median
268 2% 50%  
269 4% 48%  
270 3% 44%  
271 2% 41%  
272 3% 39%  
273 1.3% 36%  
274 1.3% 35%  
275 1.3% 33%  
276 2% 32%  
277 2% 30%  
278 1.2% 28%  
279 2% 27%  
280 0.7% 24%  
281 2% 24%  
282 0.8% 22%  
283 1.0% 21%  
284 1.2% 20%  
285 1.2% 19%  
286 0.5% 18%  
287 2% 17%  
288 1.2% 15%  
289 0.7% 14%  
290 1.2% 13%  
291 1.2% 12%  
292 0.5% 11%  
293 1.0% 11%  
294 0.8% 10%  
295 0.7% 9%  
296 0.3% 8%  
297 1.2% 8%  
298 0.3% 7%  
299 0.4% 6%  
300 1.2% 6%  
301 0.2% 5%  
302 0.6% 4%  
303 0.5% 4%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.2% 3%  
306 0.2% 3%  
307 0.4% 3%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.2% 1.4%  
313 0.2% 1.2%  
314 0.2% 1.1%  
315 0.2% 0.9%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.3% Last Result
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.2% 99.0%  
240 0.4% 98.8%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.9% 98%  
243 0.6% 97%  
244 0.4% 96%  
245 0.7% 96%  
246 0.6% 95%  
247 0.7% 95%  
248 2% 94%  
249 1.1% 92%  
250 1.1% 91%  
251 2% 90%  
252 3% 88%  
253 4% 85%  
254 3% 82%  
255 3% 79%  
256 2% 76%  
257 2% 74%  
258 3% 72%  
259 2% 70%  
260 3% 68%  
261 4% 65%  
262 5% 60%  
263 5% 56%  
264 2% 51% Median
265 2% 48%  
266 2% 46%  
267 3% 44%  
268 3% 41%  
269 3% 38%  
270 1.3% 35%  
271 2% 34%  
272 1.2% 32%  
273 2% 31%  
274 2% 29%  
275 1.3% 27%  
276 2% 26%  
277 1.5% 25%  
278 2% 23%  
279 0.7% 21%  
280 1.4% 21%  
281 0.6% 19%  
282 1.3% 19%  
283 1.0% 17%  
284 1.4% 16%  
285 0.9% 15%  
286 0.8% 14%  
287 0.9% 13%  
288 0.9% 12%  
289 1.0% 11%  
290 1.3% 10%  
291 0.3% 9%  
292 0.8% 9%  
293 0.4% 8%  
294 0.6% 7%  
295 1.0% 7%  
296 0.4% 6%  
297 0.9% 5%  
298 0.2% 5%  
299 0.8% 4%  
300 0.3% 4%  
301 0.4% 3%  
302 0.3% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.3%  
310 0.1% 1.2%  
311 0.3% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.3% Last Result
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations