Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 16–17 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 41.3% 39.8–42.9% 39.4–43.3% 39.0–43.7% 38.3–44.5%
Conservative Party 42.4% 36.3% 34.8–37.8% 34.4–38.2% 34.0–38.6% 33.3–39.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.1% 8.2–10.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.8–10.5% 7.4–11.0%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 7.1% 6.3–7.9% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.4% 5.6–8.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.8%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 305 292–319 287–324 283–331 271–341
Conservative Party 317 251 239–268 234–274 231–278 224–292
Liberal Democrats 12 24 19–28 18–28 16–29 13–30
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 49 30–52 27–54 22–54 10–57
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9% Last Result
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.5%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.0%  
277 0.1% 99.0%  
278 0.2% 98.8%  
279 0.2% 98.6%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 1.1% 97%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 0.5% 96%  
287 0.8% 96%  
288 0.4% 95%  
289 0.4% 94%  
290 1.2% 94%  
291 1.0% 93%  
292 3% 92%  
293 1.1% 89%  
294 2% 88%  
295 2% 85%  
296 2% 84%  
297 6% 82%  
298 3% 76%  
299 2% 73%  
300 6% 72%  
301 2% 65%  
302 1.2% 63%  
303 7% 62%  
304 3% 55%  
305 2% 52% Median
306 4% 50%  
307 4% 46%  
308 6% 43%  
309 2% 37%  
310 3% 35%  
311 4% 32%  
312 3% 28%  
313 1.2% 25%  
314 4% 24%  
315 2% 19%  
316 3% 18%  
317 0.8% 15%  
318 3% 14%  
319 2% 12%  
320 2% 10%  
321 0.6% 8%  
322 1.4% 7%  
323 1.0% 6%  
324 0.5% 5%  
325 0.5% 5%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.3% 4%  
328 0.1% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.3%  
337 0.2% 1.1%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.2% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.2% 99.3%  
227 0.3% 99.1%  
228 0.3% 98.8%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.9% 97%  
233 0.7% 96%  
234 0.5% 95%  
235 0.3% 95%  
236 0.7% 95%  
237 0.8% 94%  
238 3% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 1.4% 89%  
241 5% 87%  
242 3% 82%  
243 2% 79%  
244 4% 77%  
245 4% 73%  
246 3% 69%  
247 2% 66%  
248 7% 64%  
249 0.9% 57%  
250 5% 56%  
251 4% 51% Median
252 3% 47%  
253 6% 44%  
254 2% 39%  
255 0.9% 36%  
256 4% 35%  
257 4% 32%  
258 2% 28%  
259 1.4% 26%  
260 5% 25%  
261 1.2% 20%  
262 2% 19%  
263 1.0% 17%  
264 3% 16%  
265 1.1% 14%  
266 1.0% 12%  
267 1.2% 11%  
268 1.5% 10%  
269 0.7% 9%  
270 0.9% 8%  
271 1.3% 7%  
272 0.4% 6%  
273 0.3% 6%  
274 0.9% 5%  
275 0.7% 4%  
276 0.5% 4%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.4% 3%  
279 0.1% 2%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 1.4%  
284 0.1% 1.2%  
285 0.1% 1.1%  
286 0.1% 1.0%  
287 0% 0.9%  
288 0.1% 0.9%  
289 0% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100% Last Result
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 0.4% 99.4%  
15 0.9% 98.9%  
16 2% 98%  
17 1.1% 96%  
18 3% 95%  
19 4% 92%  
20 4% 88%  
21 7% 84%  
22 5% 77%  
23 7% 72%  
24 19% 64% Median
25 11% 46%  
26 9% 35%  
27 15% 26%  
28 8% 12%  
29 3% 4%  
30 0.7% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.8%  
9 0.1% 99.7%  
10 0.1% 99.6%  
11 0.1% 99.5%  
12 0.2% 99.4%  
13 0% 99.2%  
14 0.2% 99.1%  
15 0.1% 99.0%  
16 0.2% 98.9%  
17 0% 98.6%  
18 0.3% 98.6%  
19 0.2% 98%  
20 0.2% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0.4% 98%  
23 0.1% 97%  
24 0.6% 97%  
25 0.4% 97%  
26 1.1% 96%  
27 0.3% 95%  
28 2% 95%  
29 2% 93%  
30 1.0% 91%  
31 0% 90%  
32 0.4% 90%  
33 2% 89%  
34 0.6% 87%  
35 0.7% 86% Last Result
36 0.8% 86%  
37 1.0% 85%  
38 0.2% 84%  
39 3% 84%  
40 0.6% 81%  
41 2% 80%  
42 4% 78%  
43 0.6% 73%  
44 2% 73%  
45 6% 70%  
46 5% 64%  
47 5% 60%  
48 3% 55%  
49 10% 52% Median
50 13% 42%  
51 9% 29%  
52 13% 20%  
53 1.0% 7%  
54 3% 6%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.7% 0.7%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 7% 99.2%  
2 20% 93%  
3 23% 73%  
4 30% 50% Last Result, Median
5 20% 20%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 379 99.9% 362–391 356–396 352–399 338–406
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 376 99.8% 359–388 353–392 348–396 334–402
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 356 98.5% 339–367 334–371 329–375 317–381
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 352 97% 336–363 330–368 325–372 313–378
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 332 77% 318–348 312–353 308–358 294–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 328 63% 314–345 309–350 305–354 290–366
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 309 6% 296–322 291–327 287–334 275–345
Labour Party 262 305 4% 292–319 287–324 283–331 271–341
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 302 2% 285–316 280–321 276–325 264–340
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 298 2% 282–312 277–318 272–322 261–336
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 274 0.1% 263–291 259–296 255–301 249–313
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 254 0% 242–271 238–277 234–281 228–296
Conservative Party 317 251 0% 239–268 234–274 231–278 224–292

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9% Majority
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0% 99.8%  
333 0% 99.8%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.6%  
338 0.1% 99.5%  
339 0.1% 99.4%  
340 0.1% 99.3%  
341 0% 99.2%  
342 0.1% 99.2%  
343 0% 99.1%  
344 0.1% 99.1%  
345 0.1% 99.0%  
346 0.1% 98.9%  
347 0.1% 98.8%  
348 0.2% 98.6%  
349 0.2% 98%  
350 0.4% 98%  
351 0.1% 98%  
352 0.4% 98%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.7% 96%  
356 0.9% 96%  
357 0.3% 95%  
358 0.4% 94%  
359 1.4% 94%  
360 0.9% 93%  
361 0.7% 92%  
362 1.4% 91%  
363 1.3% 90%  
364 0.9% 88%  
365 1.1% 88%  
366 3% 86%  
367 1.0% 84%  
368 2% 83%  
369 1.4% 81%  
370 5% 80%  
371 2% 75%  
372 2% 74%  
373 4% 72%  
374 3% 68%  
375 0.9% 65%  
376 2% 64%  
377 6% 61%  
378 3% 56%  
379 4% 53%  
380 5% 49%  
381 1.0% 44%  
382 7% 43% Median
383 2% 36%  
384 3% 34%  
385 4% 31%  
386 4% 27%  
387 2% 23%  
388 3% 21%  
389 5% 18%  
390 1.4% 13%  
391 2% 11%  
392 3% 9%  
393 0.8% 7%  
394 0.7% 6%  
395 0.3% 5%  
396 0.5% 5%  
397 0.7% 5%  
398 0.9% 4%  
399 0.5% 3%  
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.5% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.2%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.1% 0.7%  
406 0.2% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100% Last Result
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.8% Majority
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0% 99.8%  
329 0% 99.8%  
330 0% 99.8%  
331 0% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.3%  
336 0% 99.3%  
337 0% 99.2%  
338 0.1% 99.2%  
339 0% 99.1%  
340 0% 99.1%  
341 0% 99.0%  
342 0.2% 99.0%  
343 0.1% 98.8%  
344 0.1% 98.7%  
345 0.4% 98.6%  
346 0.2% 98%  
347 0.5% 98%  
348 0.1% 98%  
349 0.4% 97%  
350 0.3% 97%  
351 0.7% 97%  
352 0.6% 96%  
353 0.8% 95%  
354 0.3% 95%  
355 1.4% 94%  
356 0.7% 93%  
357 0.6% 92%  
358 1.2% 92%  
359 0.8% 90%  
360 2% 90%  
361 2% 88%  
362 1.2% 86%  
363 0.9% 85%  
364 3% 84%  
365 1.1% 81%  
366 3% 80%  
367 2% 77%  
368 3% 75%  
369 3% 71%  
370 3% 69%  
371 1.5% 66%  
372 2% 64%  
373 2% 62%  
374 6% 60%  
375 3% 54%  
376 6% 51%  
377 2% 45%  
378 3% 43% Median
379 2% 40%  
380 6% 38%  
381 3% 32%  
382 3% 29%  
383 4% 27%  
384 3% 23%  
385 2% 21%  
386 6% 19%  
387 2% 13%  
388 1.3% 11%  
389 2% 9%  
390 1.1% 7%  
391 0.7% 6%  
392 0.5% 5%  
393 0.4% 5%  
394 0.4% 4%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 1.0% 3%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.3% 2%  
400 0.4% 1.3%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100% Last Result
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.7%  
316 0.1% 99.6%  
317 0.1% 99.5%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0% 99.3%  
320 0.1% 99.3%  
321 0.1% 99.2%  
322 0.2% 99.1%  
323 0.1% 98.9%  
324 0.1% 98.8%  
325 0.2% 98.7%  
326 0.1% 98.5% Majority
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.3% 98%  
329 0.1% 98%  
330 0.6% 97%  
331 0.3% 97%  
332 0.3% 96%  
333 0.8% 96%  
334 0.5% 95%  
335 1.4% 95%  
336 0.5% 93%  
337 1.3% 93%  
338 0.9% 92%  
339 1.1% 91%  
340 0.8% 90%  
341 1.3% 89%  
342 2% 87%  
343 2% 86%  
344 1.3% 84%  
345 3% 82%  
346 2% 80%  
347 3% 78%  
348 3% 75%  
349 4% 71%  
350 4% 68%  
351 3% 64%  
352 3% 61%  
353 2% 58%  
354 1.1% 56%  
355 5% 55%  
356 5% 50%  
357 4% 45%  
358 4% 41% Median
359 3% 37%  
360 3% 33%  
361 4% 30%  
362 4% 26%  
363 3% 22%  
364 2% 18%  
365 4% 16%  
366 1.0% 12%  
367 2% 11%  
368 2% 10%  
369 2% 7%  
370 0.7% 6%  
371 0.7% 5%  
372 0.6% 4%  
373 0.7% 4%  
374 0.4% 3%  
375 0.6% 3%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.3% 1.4%  
379 0.1% 1.1%  
380 0.3% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100% Last Result
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.8%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0.1% 99.3%  
316 0.1% 99.3%  
317 0.1% 99.2%  
318 0% 99.1%  
319 0.2% 99.0%  
320 0.2% 98.9%  
321 0.1% 98.7%  
322 0.2% 98.6%  
323 0.2% 98%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.2% 98%  
326 0.5% 97% Majority
327 0.3% 97%  
328 0.3% 97%  
329 0.5% 96%  
330 1.1% 96%  
331 0.6% 95%  
332 0.7% 94%  
333 0.9% 94%  
334 1.0% 93%  
335 1.3% 92%  
336 2% 90%  
337 1.0% 89%  
338 0.8% 88%  
339 2% 87%  
340 0.8% 85%  
341 2% 84%  
342 5% 82%  
343 3% 77%  
344 3% 74%  
345 3% 72%  
346 2% 69%  
347 5% 67%  
348 2% 62%  
349 2% 60%  
350 1.1% 58%  
351 3% 57%  
352 6% 54%  
353 6% 48%  
354 1.4% 42% Median
355 3% 40%  
356 4% 37%  
357 5% 33%  
358 4% 28%  
359 3% 24%  
360 2% 22%  
361 3% 20%  
362 4% 16%  
363 2% 12%  
364 0.9% 10%  
365 1.1% 9%  
366 1.4% 8%  
367 1.4% 6%  
368 0.8% 5%  
369 0.6% 4%  
370 0.7% 4%  
371 0.3% 3%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.4% 2%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.3%  
376 0.3% 1.1%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100% Last Result
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0% 99.3%  
297 0% 99.3%  
298 0.1% 99.2%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.1%  
301 0.2% 99.0%  
302 0.2% 98.9%  
303 0.2% 98.7%  
304 0.1% 98.5%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 0.1% 97%  
310 1.0% 97%  
311 0.2% 96%  
312 1.1% 96%  
313 0.6% 95%  
314 1.1% 94%  
315 0.9% 93%  
316 0.8% 92%  
317 0.6% 91%  
318 2% 91%  
319 3% 89%  
320 1.0% 86%  
321 0.9% 85%  
322 1.1% 84%  
323 1.5% 83%  
324 3% 81%  
325 1.0% 78%  
326 3% 77% Majority
327 6% 75%  
328 5% 69%  
329 2% 64%  
330 4% 61%  
331 6% 57%  
332 4% 51%  
333 1.4% 47% Median
334 2% 46%  
335 2% 44%  
336 5% 42%  
337 2% 37%  
338 5% 35%  
339 3% 30%  
340 3% 27%  
341 0.5% 23%  
342 3% 23%  
343 3% 19%  
344 0.9% 16%  
345 0.7% 15%  
346 0.8% 15%  
347 3% 14%  
348 2% 11%  
349 0.7% 9%  
350 0.5% 8%  
351 2% 8%  
352 0.6% 6%  
353 1.1% 5%  
354 0.4% 4%  
355 0.6% 4%  
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.2% 3%  
358 0.3% 3%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 1.1%  
366 0.1% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100% Last Result
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0% 99.3%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0% 99.2%  
295 0.1% 99.2%  
296 0.1% 99.1%  
297 0% 99.0%  
298 0.1% 99.0%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.1% 98.6%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.6% 98%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.8% 97%  
307 0.7% 96%  
308 0.5% 96%  
309 1.1% 95%  
310 0.8% 94%  
311 1.0% 93%  
312 0.3% 92%  
313 1.3% 92%  
314 2% 91%  
315 2% 89%  
316 0.6% 86%  
317 0.7% 86%  
318 2% 85%  
319 2% 83%  
320 2% 82%  
321 2% 79%  
322 2% 77%  
323 2% 75%  
324 8% 73%  
325 2% 65%  
326 2% 63% Majority
327 6% 61%  
328 6% 55%  
329 1.4% 49% Median
330 2% 48%  
331 2% 45%  
332 3% 43%  
333 2% 40%  
334 4% 38%  
335 5% 34%  
336 2% 29%  
337 4% 27%  
338 2% 23%  
339 3% 21%  
340 0.5% 18%  
341 2% 17%  
342 0.6% 15%  
343 1.1% 15%  
344 3% 14%  
345 2% 10%  
346 0.4% 9%  
347 2% 8%  
348 0.8% 6%  
349 0.6% 6%  
350 0.3% 5%  
351 1.0% 5%  
352 0.6% 4%  
353 0.3% 3%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.2% 2%  
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.1% 1.5%  
360 0.2% 1.4%  
361 0.2% 1.2%  
362 0.1% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.1% 0.7%  
365 0% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9% Last Result
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.2% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.2%  
278 0% 99.1%  
279 0.1% 99.1%  
280 0.1% 99.0%  
281 0.1% 98.9%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.3% 98.6%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.7% 98%  
288 0.3% 97%  
289 0.9% 97%  
290 0.5% 96%  
291 0.6% 95%  
292 0.2% 95%  
293 0.9% 94%  
294 0.6% 93%  
295 2% 93%  
296 2% 91%  
297 2% 89%  
298 2% 87%  
299 2% 85%  
300 6% 83%  
301 2% 77%  
302 3% 75%  
303 5% 72%  
304 2% 67%  
305 3% 65%  
306 4% 62%  
307 6% 58%  
308 1.1% 52%  
309 3% 51% Median
310 5% 47%  
311 3% 42%  
312 5% 40%  
313 3% 35%  
314 4% 32%  
315 3% 28%  
316 2% 25%  
317 3% 23%  
318 3% 21%  
319 2% 18%  
320 1.2% 16%  
321 4% 15%  
322 1.0% 11%  
323 0.5% 10%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.0% 7%  
326 0.7% 6% Majority
327 0.8% 5%  
328 0.6% 5%  
329 0.4% 4%  
330 0.1% 4%  
331 0.3% 4%  
332 0.2% 3%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.3%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9% Last Result
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.5%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.0%  
277 0.1% 99.0%  
278 0.2% 98.8%  
279 0.2% 98.6%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.4% 98%  
284 1.1% 97%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 0.5% 96%  
287 0.8% 96%  
288 0.4% 95%  
289 0.4% 94%  
290 1.2% 94%  
291 1.0% 93%  
292 3% 92%  
293 1.1% 89%  
294 2% 88%  
295 2% 85%  
296 2% 84%  
297 6% 82%  
298 3% 76%  
299 2% 73%  
300 6% 72%  
301 2% 65%  
302 1.2% 63%  
303 7% 62%  
304 3% 55%  
305 2% 52% Median
306 4% 50%  
307 4% 46%  
308 6% 43%  
309 2% 37%  
310 3% 35%  
311 4% 32%  
312 3% 28%  
313 1.2% 25%  
314 4% 24%  
315 2% 19%  
316 3% 18%  
317 0.8% 15%  
318 3% 14%  
319 2% 12%  
320 2% 10%  
321 0.6% 8%  
322 1.4% 7%  
323 1.0% 6%  
324 0.5% 5%  
325 0.5% 5%  
326 0.5% 4% Majority
327 0.3% 4%  
328 0.1% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.3%  
337 0.2% 1.1%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.4%  
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0.1% 99.1%  
269 0.2% 99.0%  
270 0.2% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.6%  
272 0.4% 98.5%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 1.0% 96%  
280 0.3% 95%  
281 0.6% 95%  
282 0.8% 94%  
283 2% 94%  
284 0.3% 92%  
285 2% 91%  
286 3% 90%  
287 1.1% 86%  
288 0.6% 85%  
289 2% 85%  
290 0.5% 83%  
291 3% 82%  
292 2% 79%  
293 4% 77%  
294 2% 73%  
295 5% 71%  
296 4% 66%  
297 2% 62%  
298 3% 60%  
299 2% 57%  
300 2% 55%  
301 2% 52%  
302 6% 51%  
303 6% 45%  
304 2% 39% Median
305 2% 37%  
306 8% 35%  
307 2% 27%  
308 3% 25%  
309 2% 22%  
310 2% 21%  
311 2% 18%  
312 2% 17%  
313 0.8% 15%  
314 0.5% 14%  
315 2% 14%  
316 2% 11%  
317 1.3% 9%  
318 0.3% 8%  
319 1.0% 8%  
320 0.8% 7%  
321 1.1% 6%  
322 0.5% 5%  
323 0.6% 4%  
324 0.8% 4%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.4%  
332 0.1% 1.2%  
333 0% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 1.0%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0%  
356 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.3%  
264 0.1% 99.2%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0.3% 98.8%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.2% 97%  
274 0.3% 97%  
275 0.6% 97%  
276 0.4% 96%  
277 1.1% 96%  
278 0.6% 95%  
279 2% 94%  
280 0.5% 92%  
281 0.7% 92%  
282 2% 91%  
283 3% 89%  
284 0.8% 86%  
285 0.7% 85%  
286 0.9% 85%  
287 3% 84%  
288 3% 81%  
289 0.5% 77%  
290 3% 77%  
291 3% 73%  
292 5% 70%  
293 2% 65%  
294 5% 63%  
295 2% 58%  
296 2% 56%  
297 1.4% 54%  
298 4% 53%  
299 6% 49%  
300 4% 43% Median
301 2% 39%  
302 5% 36%  
303 6% 31%  
304 3% 25%  
305 1.0% 22%  
306 3% 21%  
307 1.3% 18%  
308 1.1% 17%  
309 0.9% 16%  
310 1.1% 15%  
311 3% 14%  
312 2% 11%  
313 0.5% 9%  
314 0.8% 9%  
315 0.9% 8%  
316 1.1% 7%  
317 0.6% 6%  
318 1.1% 5%  
319 0.2% 4%  
320 1.0% 4%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 0.6% 3%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0.2% 1.3%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.8%  
334 0% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0% 0.4%  
338 0% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.3% 99.3%  
251 0.1% 99.0%  
252 0.3% 98.9%  
253 0.5% 98.6%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.4% 97%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.6% 96%  
259 0.7% 96%  
260 0.7% 95%  
261 2% 94%  
262 2% 93%  
263 2% 90%  
264 1.0% 89%  
265 4% 88%  
266 2% 83%  
267 3% 82%  
268 4% 78%  
269 4% 74%  
270 3% 70%  
271 3% 67%  
272 4% 63%  
273 4% 59%  
274 5% 55%  
275 5% 50% Median
276 1.1% 45%  
277 2% 43%  
278 3% 42%  
279 3% 39%  
280 4% 36%  
281 4% 32%  
282 3% 28%  
283 3% 25%  
284 2% 22%  
285 3% 20%  
286 1.2% 17%  
287 2% 16%  
288 2% 14%  
289 1.3% 12%  
290 0.8% 11%  
291 1.2% 10%  
292 0.8% 9%  
293 1.3% 8%  
294 0.5% 7%  
295 1.4% 7%  
296 0.6% 5%  
297 0.8% 5%  
298 0.3% 4%  
299 0.3% 4%  
300 0.6% 3%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.6% 2%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.5%  
306 0.1% 1.3%  
307 0.1% 1.2%  
308 0.2% 1.1%  
309 0.1% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.8%  
311 0% 0.7%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.5%  
229 0.2% 99.3%  
230 0.4% 99.1%  
231 0.3% 98.7%  
232 0.4% 98%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 1.0% 98%  
235 0.8% 97%  
236 0.4% 96%  
237 0.4% 96%  
238 0.5% 95%  
239 0.7% 95%  
240 1.2% 94%  
241 2% 93%  
242 1.3% 91%  
243 2% 89%  
244 6% 87%  
245 2% 81%  
246 3% 79%  
247 4% 77%  
248 3% 73%  
249 3% 71%  
250 6% 67%  
251 2% 62%  
252 3% 60%  
253 2% 57%  
254 6% 55%  
255 3% 49% Median
256 6% 46%  
257 2% 40%  
258 2% 38%  
259 1.4% 35%  
260 3% 34%  
261 3% 31%  
262 3% 28%  
263 2% 25%  
264 3% 23%  
265 1.1% 20%  
266 3% 19%  
267 0.9% 16%  
268 1.2% 15%  
269 2% 14%  
270 2% 12%  
271 0.8% 10%  
272 1.2% 10%  
273 0.6% 8%  
274 0.7% 8%  
275 1.4% 7%  
276 0.3% 6%  
277 0.8% 5%  
278 0.6% 4%  
279 0.7% 4%  
280 0.4% 3%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.1% 2%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.1% 1.3%  
287 0.1% 1.3%  
288 0.2% 1.2%  
289 0% 1.0%  
290 0.1% 1.0%  
291 0.1% 0.9%  
292 0.1% 0.9%  
293 0% 0.8%  
294 0.1% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.7%  
296 0.2% 0.7%  
297 0% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.2% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0.2% 99.3%  
227 0.3% 99.1%  
228 0.3% 98.8%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.4% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.9% 97%  
233 0.7% 96%  
234 0.5% 95%  
235 0.3% 95%  
236 0.7% 95%  
237 0.8% 94%  
238 3% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 1.4% 89%  
241 5% 87%  
242 3% 82%  
243 2% 79%  
244 4% 77%  
245 4% 73%  
246 3% 69%  
247 2% 66%  
248 7% 64%  
249 0.9% 57%  
250 5% 56%  
251 4% 51% Median
252 3% 47%  
253 6% 44%  
254 2% 39%  
255 0.9% 36%  
256 4% 35%  
257 4% 32%  
258 2% 28%  
259 1.4% 26%  
260 5% 25%  
261 1.2% 20%  
262 2% 19%  
263 1.0% 17%  
264 3% 16%  
265 1.1% 14%  
266 1.0% 12%  
267 1.2% 11%  
268 1.5% 10%  
269 0.7% 9%  
270 0.9% 8%  
271 1.3% 7%  
272 0.4% 6%  
273 0.3% 6%  
274 0.9% 5%  
275 0.7% 4%  
276 0.5% 4%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.4% 3%  
279 0.1% 2%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.2% 2%  
283 0.1% 1.4%  
284 0.1% 1.2%  
285 0.1% 1.1%  
286 0.1% 1.0%  
287 0% 0.9%  
288 0.1% 0.9%  
289 0% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations