Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 19–20 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.5–40.6% 37.1–41.0% 36.7–41.4% 36.0–42.1%
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.0% 36.5–39.6% 36.1–40.0% 35.7–40.4% 35.0–41.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–10.9%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.6–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 281 258–297 250–301 246–304 238–309
Conservative Party 317 272 252–296 249–305 247–309 241–318
Liberal Democrats 12 21 15–26 13–27 12–27 11–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 53 49–57 47–57 46–57 39–58
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 2–5 2–5 1–7

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.4% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.2%  
240 0.1% 98.9%  
241 0.1% 98.8%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98.5%  
244 0.5% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.7% 98%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 0.3% 96%  
250 1.0% 96%  
251 0.7% 95%  
252 0.2% 94%  
253 0.4% 94%  
254 1.1% 93%  
255 1.4% 92%  
256 0.2% 91%  
257 0.6% 91%  
258 2% 90%  
259 0.7% 88%  
260 3% 87%  
261 1.2% 84%  
262 2% 83% Last Result
263 1.2% 81%  
264 1.1% 80%  
265 0.2% 79%  
266 0.3% 79%  
267 0.7% 79%  
268 2% 78%  
269 3% 76%  
270 7% 74%  
271 3% 67%  
272 1.2% 64%  
273 1.0% 63%  
274 1.5% 62%  
275 0.8% 61%  
276 0.3% 60%  
277 0.8% 60%  
278 3% 59%  
279 4% 56%  
280 0.9% 52%  
281 1.2% 51% Median
282 1.5% 50%  
283 1.4% 48%  
284 3% 47%  
285 2% 44%  
286 0.9% 42%  
287 3% 41%  
288 3% 38%  
289 3% 36%  
290 2% 33%  
291 1.1% 31%  
292 5% 30%  
293 5% 25%  
294 1.3% 20%  
295 2% 19%  
296 4% 17%  
297 3% 13%  
298 3% 9%  
299 0.6% 7%  
300 0.4% 6%  
301 1.2% 6%  
302 2% 5%  
303 0.5% 3%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.4% 99.4%  
243 0.3% 99.0%  
244 0.1% 98.8%  
245 0.2% 98.6%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 1.4% 98%  
248 0.7% 97%  
249 2% 96%  
250 2% 94%  
251 0.9% 93%  
252 3% 92%  
253 3% 89%  
254 2% 86%  
255 4% 84%  
256 2% 80%  
257 0.8% 77%  
258 2% 76%  
259 7% 75%  
260 2% 68%  
261 2% 66%  
262 2% 64%  
263 1.4% 62%  
264 1.1% 61%  
265 1.4% 59%  
266 1.2% 58%  
267 1.1% 57%  
268 0.9% 56%  
269 1.1% 55%  
270 0.9% 54%  
271 1.2% 53%  
272 3% 52% Median
273 2% 49%  
274 2% 47%  
275 2% 45%  
276 4% 44%  
277 0.3% 40%  
278 0.7% 39%  
279 0.5% 39%  
280 2% 38%  
281 2% 36%  
282 4% 34%  
283 1.3% 29%  
284 4% 28%  
285 1.2% 24%  
286 2% 23%  
287 1.1% 21%  
288 0.7% 20%  
289 0.6% 19%  
290 0.2% 19%  
291 1.2% 18%  
292 0.8% 17%  
293 1.3% 16%  
294 2% 15%  
295 2% 13%  
296 1.2% 11%  
297 0.5% 10%  
298 0.6% 9%  
299 1.1% 9%  
300 0.7% 8%  
301 0.2% 7%  
302 0.4% 7%  
303 0.4% 6%  
304 0.5% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 0.4% 5%  
307 0.3% 4%  
308 1.1% 4%  
309 0.8% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.5%  
314 0.1% 1.2%  
315 0.2% 1.1%  
316 0.2% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 2% 99.2% Last Result
13 3% 97%  
14 2% 94%  
15 3% 91%  
16 6% 88%  
17 7% 83%  
18 6% 75%  
19 7% 70%  
20 7% 63%  
21 7% 56% Median
22 6% 49%  
23 10% 43%  
24 7% 33%  
25 4% 26%  
26 12% 21%  
27 7% 9%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 100% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0.1% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8% Last Result
36 0% 99.7%  
37 0% 99.7%  
38 0.1% 99.7%  
39 0.2% 99.6%  
40 0.2% 99.4%  
41 0.3% 99.2%  
42 0.3% 98.9%  
43 0.5% 98.6%  
44 0.2% 98%  
45 0.3% 98%  
46 1.2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 3% 95%  
49 2% 92%  
50 5% 90%  
51 11% 85%  
52 22% 74%  
53 4% 51% Median
54 17% 47%  
55 4% 31%  
56 14% 27%  
57 13% 13%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 1.3% 99.8%  
2 6% 98.5%  
3 16% 93%  
4 25% 77% Last Result
5 50% 51% Median
6 0.5% 1.1%  
7 0.1% 0.6%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 358 95% 334–378 325–381 321–383 312–389
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 353 93% 329–374 321–376 317–379 307–385
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 330 53% 310–353 307–360 306–363 297–375
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 339 77% 314–355 305–358 299–362 292–368
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 326 50% 306–349 303–356 301–360 294–370
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 334 67% 309–351 301–354 295–358 288–364
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 291 5% 275–316 272–325 268–331 262–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 304 8% 281–324 274–327 270–329 260–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 300 2% 277–320 270–323 267–324 255–333
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 277 0.3% 256–301 254–309 251–313 245–323
Conservative Party 317 272 0.1% 252–296 249–305 247–309 241–318
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 285 0% 262–301 254–306 250–308 241–313
Labour Party 262 281 0% 258–297 250–301 246–304 238–309

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.7%  
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.7%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
314 0.2% 99.3%  
315 0.2% 99.0%  
316 0.1% 98.9%  
317 0.3% 98.8%  
318 0.1% 98.5%  
319 0.2% 98%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 0.8% 98%  
322 1.1% 97%  
323 0.3% 96%  
324 0.4% 96%  
325 0.5% 95%  
326 0.5% 95% Majority
327 0.4% 94%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.2% 93%  
330 0.7% 93%  
331 1.1% 92%  
332 0.6% 91%  
333 0.5% 91%  
334 1.2% 90%  
335 2% 89%  
336 2% 87%  
337 1.3% 85%  
338 0.8% 84%  
339 1.2% 83%  
340 0.2% 82%  
341 0.6% 81%  
342 0.7% 81%  
343 1.1% 80%  
344 2% 79%  
345 1.2% 77%  
346 4% 76%  
347 1.3% 72%  
348 4% 71%  
349 2% 66%  
350 2% 64%  
351 0.5% 62%  
352 0.7% 61%  
353 0.3% 61%  
354 4% 60%  
355 2% 56%  
356 2% 55%  
357 2% 53%  
358 3% 51%  
359 1.2% 48%  
360 0.9% 47% Median
361 1.1% 46%  
362 0.9% 45%  
363 1.0% 44%  
364 1.2% 43%  
365 1.4% 42%  
366 1.2% 41%  
367 1.4% 39%  
368 2% 38%  
369 2% 36%  
370 2% 34%  
371 7% 32%  
372 2% 25%  
373 0.8% 24%  
374 2% 23%  
375 4% 20%  
376 2% 16%  
377 3% 14%  
378 3% 11%  
379 0.9% 8%  
380 2% 7%  
381 2% 6%  
382 0.7% 4%  
383 1.4% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 2%  
386 0.1% 1.4%  
387 0.3% 1.2%  
388 0.4% 1.0%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.3% Last Result
310 0.1% 99.3%  
311 0.2% 99.2%  
312 0.3% 99.0%  
313 0.2% 98.7%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.2% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.9% 98%  
318 0.8% 97%  
319 0.8% 96%  
320 0.1% 96%  
321 0.4% 95%  
322 0.7% 95%  
323 0.5% 94%  
324 0.2% 94%  
325 0.5% 94%  
326 0.8% 93% Majority
327 1.1% 92%  
328 0.5% 91%  
329 1.1% 91%  
330 2% 90%  
331 0.7% 88%  
332 2% 87%  
333 2% 85%  
334 1.3% 83%  
335 0.2% 82%  
336 0.7% 82%  
337 0.4% 81%  
338 1.2% 81%  
339 2% 79%  
340 1.4% 78%  
341 4% 76%  
342 0.9% 73%  
343 4% 72%  
344 3% 68%  
345 2% 65%  
346 0.6% 62%  
347 0.6% 62%  
348 0.4% 61%  
349 4% 61%  
350 1.2% 57%  
351 2% 56%  
352 2% 53%  
353 2% 51%  
354 1.1% 50%  
355 2% 49% Median
356 0.8% 47%  
357 0.6% 46%  
358 0.4% 45%  
359 1.4% 45%  
360 2% 44%  
361 1.2% 42%  
362 1.5% 40%  
363 1.0% 39%  
364 1.4% 38%  
365 1.3% 37%  
366 3% 35%  
367 6% 32%  
368 2% 27%  
369 1.1% 24%  
370 3% 23%  
371 5% 20%  
372 0.6% 15%  
373 3% 14%  
374 2% 12%  
375 2% 9%  
376 3% 7%  
377 0.6% 5%  
378 0.8% 4%  
379 1.1% 3%  
380 0.6% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.3%  
383 0.4% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.2%  
302 0.2% 98.9%  
303 0.3% 98.7%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.6% 98%  
306 1.4% 98%  
307 2% 96%  
308 2% 94%  
309 1.5% 93%  
310 4% 91%  
311 7% 88%  
312 3% 80%  
313 0.8% 77%  
314 2% 76%  
315 5% 74%  
316 3% 69%  
317 3% 66%  
318 1.5% 63%  
319 0.9% 62%  
320 1.1% 61%  
321 1.0% 59%  
322 1.1% 58%  
323 2% 57%  
324 1.2% 56%  
325 2% 54%  
326 1.0% 53% Majority
327 0.6% 52%  
328 0.3% 51%  
329 0.8% 51%  
330 0.4% 50% Median
331 0.8% 50%  
332 2% 49%  
333 2% 47%  
334 3% 45%  
335 3% 42%  
336 0.8% 39%  
337 1.2% 38%  
338 0.5% 37%  
339 0.6% 36%  
340 0.5% 36%  
341 5% 35%  
342 3% 31%  
343 6% 28%  
344 1.4% 22%  
345 1.5% 21%  
346 0.4% 19%  
347 0.4% 19%  
348 1.3% 18%  
349 0.7% 17%  
350 1.4% 16%  
351 1.0% 15%  
352 3% 14%  
353 1.2% 11%  
354 1.4% 9%  
355 1.3% 8%  
356 0.4% 7% Last Result
357 0.1% 6%  
358 0.1% 6%  
359 0.7% 6%  
360 0.9% 5%  
361 0.5% 5%  
362 1.2% 4%  
363 0.8% 3%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.1% 2%  
366 0.1% 2%  
367 0.1% 2%  
368 0.1% 1.4%  
369 0.2% 1.3%  
370 0.3% 1.1%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.6%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.3% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.3%  
294 0% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.0%  
296 0.2% 99.0%  
297 0.3% 98.7%  
298 0.8% 98%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.2% 97%  
301 0.5% 97% Last Result
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.6% 96%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 0.5% 95%  
306 0.7% 95%  
307 0.2% 94%  
308 0.5% 94%  
309 0.8% 93%  
310 0.5% 93%  
311 0.8% 92%  
312 0.5% 91%  
313 0.3% 91%  
314 2% 91%  
315 2% 89%  
316 0.7% 87%  
317 2% 86%  
318 1.2% 85%  
319 2% 84%  
320 1.1% 82%  
321 1.4% 81%  
322 0.8% 79%  
323 0.8% 79%  
324 0.3% 78%  
325 0.3% 77%  
326 3% 77% Majority
327 2% 74%  
328 0.8% 72%  
329 2% 71%  
330 2% 69%  
331 4% 67%  
332 3% 63%  
333 1.2% 60%  
334 0.9% 59%  
335 2% 58%  
336 2% 56%  
337 0.9% 53%  
338 2% 53%  
339 2% 50% Median
340 1.4% 48%  
341 1.5% 47%  
342 3% 45%  
343 2% 42%  
344 2% 40%  
345 3% 39%  
346 2% 36%  
347 2% 33%  
348 5% 31%  
349 2% 26%  
350 2% 24%  
351 4% 22%  
352 2% 18%  
353 3% 16%  
354 2% 13%  
355 2% 11%  
356 2% 9%  
357 1.1% 8%  
358 2% 6%  
359 0.5% 5%  
360 0.2% 4%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 1.0% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.6% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.3% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.4%  
296 0.3% 99.3%  
297 0.3% 99.0%  
298 0.2% 98.7%  
299 0.4% 98.6%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.9% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 2% 94%  
305 2% 92%  
306 3% 90%  
307 5% 88%  
308 5% 82%  
309 1.2% 77%  
310 1.1% 76%  
311 5% 75%  
312 2% 70%  
313 4% 68%  
314 2% 64%  
315 1.2% 62%  
316 1.2% 61%  
317 0.7% 60%  
318 1.3% 59%  
319 1.2% 58%  
320 2% 57%  
321 1.4% 54%  
322 1.3% 53%  
323 0.4% 52%  
324 0.9% 51%  
325 0.4% 50% Median
326 0.8% 50% Majority
327 1.3% 49%  
328 2% 48%  
329 4% 46%  
330 3% 43%  
331 0.8% 40%  
332 2% 39%  
333 0.5% 37%  
334 0.7% 37%  
335 0.7% 36%  
336 4% 35%  
337 3% 31%  
338 4% 28%  
339 2% 24%  
340 2% 21%  
341 0.8% 20%  
342 0.4% 19%  
343 1.3% 18%  
344 0.7% 17%  
345 0.5% 16%  
346 2% 16%  
347 3% 14%  
348 1.0% 12%  
349 0.9% 11%  
350 1.3% 10%  
351 2% 8%  
352 0.3% 7% Last Result
353 0.3% 7%  
354 0.4% 6%  
355 0.2% 6%  
356 0.7% 6%  
357 0.8% 5%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.8% 3%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.1% 1.4%  
365 0.2% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.3% 0.9%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0% 0.4%  
372 0% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.4%  
290 0.2% 99.2%  
291 0.2% 99.0%  
292 0.2% 98.8%  
293 0.1% 98.6%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.8% 98%  
296 0.2% 97%  
297 0.3% 97% Last Result
298 0.5% 97%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.8% 96%  
301 0.6% 95%  
302 0.2% 95%  
303 0.6% 94%  
304 0.2% 94%  
305 0.2% 94%  
306 2% 93%  
307 0.4% 91%  
308 0.2% 91%  
309 1.5% 91%  
310 1.4% 89%  
311 1.3% 88%  
312 1.4% 87%  
313 0.6% 85%  
314 2% 85%  
315 1.3% 83%  
316 1.2% 82%  
317 1.5% 81%  
318 0.9% 79%  
319 0.4% 78%  
320 0.3% 78%  
321 3% 78%  
322 3% 75%  
323 0.6% 72%  
324 2% 71%  
325 2% 69%  
326 3% 67% Majority
327 1.2% 64%  
328 2% 62%  
329 2% 60%  
330 1.3% 59%  
331 3% 57%  
332 2% 55%  
333 2% 53%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 1.1% 49%  
336 3% 48%  
337 2% 46%  
338 1.5% 44%  
339 2% 43%  
340 4% 41%  
341 2% 37%  
342 1.5% 35%  
343 3% 33%  
344 4% 30%  
345 3% 27%  
346 2% 23%  
347 3% 22%  
348 3% 18%  
349 3% 15%  
350 1.2% 12%  
351 1.1% 11%  
352 1.2% 9%  
353 2% 8%  
354 2% 6%  
355 0.3% 5%  
356 0.3% 4%  
357 0.4% 4%  
358 1.3% 4%  
359 0.5% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.6% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.2% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.3% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.6% 98.9%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 1.0% 98%  
269 0.8% 97%  
270 0.2% 96%  
271 0.5% 96%  
272 2% 95%  
273 1.1% 94%  
274 2% 92%  
275 2% 91%  
276 2% 89%  
277 3% 87%  
278 2% 84%  
279 4% 82%  
280 2% 78%  
281 2% 76%  
282 5% 74%  
283 2% 69%  
284 2% 67%  
285 3% 64%  
286 2% 61%  
287 2% 60%  
288 3% 58%  
289 1.5% 55%  
290 1.4% 53%  
291 2% 52%  
292 2% 50%  
293 0.9% 47% Median
294 2% 47%  
295 2% 44%  
296 0.9% 42%  
297 1.2% 41%  
298 3% 40%  
299 4% 37%  
300 2% 33%  
301 2% 31%  
302 0.8% 29%  
303 2% 28%  
304 3% 26%  
305 0.3% 23%  
306 0.3% 23%  
307 0.8% 22%  
308 0.8% 21%  
309 1.3% 21%  
310 1.1% 19%  
311 2% 18%  
312 1.2% 16%  
313 2% 15%  
314 0.7% 14%  
315 2% 13%  
316 2% 11%  
317 0.3% 9%  
318 0.5% 9%  
319 0.8% 9%  
320 0.5% 8%  
321 0.8% 7%  
322 0.5% 7%  
323 0.2% 6%  
324 0.7% 6%  
325 0.5% 5%  
326 0.4% 5% Majority
327 0.6% 4%  
328 0.3% 4%  
329 0.5% 3% Last Result
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.8% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.3%  
335 0.1% 1.0%  
336 0% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.3% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.3% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0.2% 98.9%  
266 0.1% 98.7%  
267 0.2% 98.6%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.8% 98%  
271 0.8% 97%  
272 0.7% 97%  
273 0.8% 96%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 0.2% 94%  
276 0.4% 94%  
277 0.3% 94%  
278 0.3% 93% Last Result
279 2% 93%  
280 1.3% 91%  
281 0.9% 90%  
282 1.0% 89%  
283 3% 88%  
284 2% 86%  
285 0.5% 84%  
286 0.7% 84%  
287 1.3% 83%  
288 0.4% 82%  
289 0.8% 81%  
290 2% 80%  
291 2% 79%  
292 4% 76%  
293 3% 72%  
294 4% 69%  
295 0.6% 65%  
296 0.7% 64%  
297 0.5% 63%  
298 2% 63%  
299 0.8% 61%  
300 3% 60%  
301 4% 57%  
302 2% 54%  
303 1.3% 52%  
304 0.8% 51%  
305 0.4% 50%  
306 0.9% 50%  
307 0.4% 49% Median
308 1.3% 48%  
309 1.4% 47%  
310 2% 46%  
311 1.2% 43%  
312 1.3% 42%  
313 0.7% 41%  
314 1.2% 40%  
315 1.2% 39%  
316 2% 38%  
317 4% 36%  
318 2% 32%  
319 5% 30%  
320 1.1% 25%  
321 1.2% 24%  
322 5% 23%  
323 5% 18%  
324 3% 12%  
325 2% 10%  
326 2% 8% Majority
327 2% 6%  
328 0.7% 4%  
329 0.9% 3%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.2% 1.4%  
333 0.3% 1.3%  
334 0.3% 1.0%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.6%  
254 0% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.5%  
257 0% 99.4%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.2%  
261 0.2% 98.9%  
262 0.2% 98.7%  
263 0.1% 98.6%  
264 0.1% 98%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.8% 98%  
268 1.2% 97%  
269 0.5% 96%  
270 0.9% 95%  
271 0.7% 95%  
272 0.1% 94%  
273 0.1% 94%  
274 0.4% 94% Last Result
275 1.3% 93%  
276 1.4% 92%  
277 1.2% 91%  
278 3% 89%  
279 1.0% 86%  
280 1.4% 85%  
281 0.7% 84%  
282 1.3% 83%  
283 0.4% 82%  
284 0.4% 81%  
285 2% 81%  
286 1.4% 79%  
287 6% 78%  
288 3% 72%  
289 5% 69%  
290 0.5% 65%  
291 0.7% 64%  
292 0.5% 64%  
293 1.2% 63%  
294 0.8% 62%  
295 3% 61%  
296 3% 58%  
297 2% 55%  
298 2% 53%  
299 0.8% 51%  
300 0.4% 50%  
301 0.8% 50%  
302 0.3% 49% Median
303 0.6% 49%  
304 1.0% 48%  
305 2% 47%  
306 1.1% 45%  
307 2% 44%  
308 1.1% 43%  
309 1.0% 42%  
310 1.1% 41%  
311 0.9% 39%  
312 1.5% 38%  
313 3% 37%  
314 3% 34%  
315 5% 31%  
316 2% 26%  
317 0.8% 24%  
318 3% 23%  
319 7% 20%  
320 4% 12%  
321 1.5% 9%  
322 2% 7%  
323 2% 6%  
324 1.4% 4%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.3%  
329 0.3% 1.1%  
330 0.2% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.4% 99.2%  
248 0.2% 98.9%  
249 0.2% 98.7%  
250 0.6% 98%  
251 1.1% 98%  
252 0.8% 97%  
253 0.6% 96%  
254 3% 95%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 91%  
257 3% 88%  
258 0.6% 86%  
259 5% 85%  
260 3% 80%  
261 1.1% 77%  
262 2% 76%  
263 6% 73%  
264 3% 68%  
265 1.3% 65%  
266 1.4% 63%  
267 1.0% 62%  
268 1.5% 61%  
269 1.2% 60%  
270 2% 58%  
271 1.4% 56%  
272 0.4% 55%  
273 0.6% 55%  
274 0.8% 54%  
275 2% 53%  
276 1.1% 51%  
277 2% 50% Median
278 2% 49%  
279 2% 47%  
280 1.2% 44%  
281 4% 43%  
282 0.4% 39%  
283 0.6% 39%  
284 0.6% 38%  
285 2% 38%  
286 3% 35%  
287 4% 32%  
288 0.9% 28%  
289 4% 27%  
290 1.4% 24%  
291 2% 22%  
292 1.2% 21%  
293 0.4% 19%  
294 0.7% 19%  
295 0.2% 18%  
296 1.3% 18%  
297 2% 17%  
298 2% 15%  
299 0.7% 13%  
300 2% 12%  
301 1.1% 10%  
302 0.5% 9%  
303 1.1% 9%  
304 0.8% 8%  
305 0.4% 7%  
306 0.2% 6%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 0.7% 6%  
309 0.4% 5%  
310 0.1% 5%  
311 0.8% 4%  
312 0.8% 4%  
313 0.9% 3%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.2% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.3%  
319 0.2% 1.0%  
320 0.1% 0.8%  
321 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.4% 99.4%  
243 0.3% 99.0%  
244 0.1% 98.8%  
245 0.2% 98.6%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 1.4% 98%  
248 0.7% 97%  
249 2% 96%  
250 2% 94%  
251 0.9% 93%  
252 3% 92%  
253 3% 89%  
254 2% 86%  
255 4% 84%  
256 2% 80%  
257 0.8% 77%  
258 2% 76%  
259 7% 75%  
260 2% 68%  
261 2% 66%  
262 2% 64%  
263 1.4% 62%  
264 1.1% 61%  
265 1.4% 59%  
266 1.2% 58%  
267 1.1% 57%  
268 0.9% 56%  
269 1.1% 55%  
270 0.9% 54%  
271 1.2% 53%  
272 3% 52% Median
273 2% 49%  
274 2% 47%  
275 2% 45%  
276 4% 44%  
277 0.3% 40%  
278 0.7% 39%  
279 0.5% 39%  
280 2% 38%  
281 2% 36%  
282 4% 34%  
283 1.3% 29%  
284 4% 28%  
285 1.2% 24%  
286 2% 23%  
287 1.1% 21%  
288 0.7% 20%  
289 0.6% 19%  
290 0.2% 19%  
291 1.2% 18%  
292 0.8% 17%  
293 1.3% 16%  
294 2% 15%  
295 2% 13%  
296 1.2% 11%  
297 0.5% 10%  
298 0.6% 9%  
299 1.1% 9%  
300 0.7% 8%  
301 0.2% 7%  
302 0.4% 7%  
303 0.4% 6%  
304 0.5% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 0.4% 5%  
307 0.3% 4%  
308 1.1% 4%  
309 0.8% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.5%  
314 0.1% 1.2%  
315 0.2% 1.1%  
316 0.2% 1.0%  
317 0.1% 0.7% Last Result
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.3% 99.8%  
242 0.4% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.1%  
244 0.1% 98.9%  
245 0% 98.8%  
246 0.2% 98.8%  
247 0.6% 98.6%  
248 0.2% 98%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.7% 98%  
251 0.7% 97%  
252 0.2% 96%  
253 0.4% 96%  
254 1.2% 96%  
255 0.4% 94%  
256 0% 94%  
257 0.1% 94%  
258 1.3% 94%  
259 2% 93%  
260 0.3% 91%  
261 0.1% 91%  
262 1.3% 91%  
263 2% 89%  
264 1.2% 88%  
265 3% 86%  
266 3% 84% Last Result
267 0.2% 81%  
268 1.1% 81%  
269 0.8% 80%  
270 0.3% 79%  
271 0.5% 79%  
272 0.2% 78%  
273 2% 78%  
274 3% 76%  
275 8% 73%  
276 1.0% 65%  
277 1.1% 64%  
278 2% 63%  
279 0.9% 61%  
280 0.7% 60%  
281 0.5% 60%  
282 2% 59%  
283 3% 58%  
284 4% 54%  
285 1.0% 50%  
286 0.8% 49% Median
287 1.5% 48%  
288 2% 47%  
289 2% 45%  
290 2% 43%  
291 2% 40%  
292 2% 38%  
293 3% 36%  
294 2% 33%  
295 2% 31%  
296 5% 29%  
297 4% 24%  
298 1.2% 20%  
299 1.2% 19%  
300 4% 17%  
301 5% 14%  
302 1.3% 9%  
303 1.0% 7%  
304 0.5% 6%  
305 0.8% 6%  
306 2% 5%  
307 0.6% 3%  
308 0.4% 3%  
309 0.2% 2%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.8% 2%  
312 0.3% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.4% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.2%  
240 0.1% 98.9%  
241 0.1% 98.8%  
242 0.2% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98.5%  
244 0.5% 98%  
245 0.1% 98%  
246 0.7% 98%  
247 0.8% 97%  
248 0.2% 96%  
249 0.3% 96%  
250 1.0% 96%  
251 0.7% 95%  
252 0.2% 94%  
253 0.4% 94%  
254 1.1% 93%  
255 1.4% 92%  
256 0.2% 91%  
257 0.6% 91%  
258 2% 90%  
259 0.7% 88%  
260 3% 87%  
261 1.2% 84%  
262 2% 83% Last Result
263 1.2% 81%  
264 1.1% 80%  
265 0.2% 79%  
266 0.3% 79%  
267 0.7% 79%  
268 2% 78%  
269 3% 76%  
270 7% 74%  
271 3% 67%  
272 1.2% 64%  
273 1.0% 63%  
274 1.5% 62%  
275 0.8% 61%  
276 0.3% 60%  
277 0.8% 60%  
278 3% 59%  
279 4% 56%  
280 0.9% 52%  
281 1.2% 51% Median
282 1.5% 50%  
283 1.4% 48%  
284 3% 47%  
285 2% 44%  
286 0.9% 42%  
287 3% 41%  
288 3% 38%  
289 3% 36%  
290 2% 33%  
291 1.1% 31%  
292 5% 30%  
293 5% 25%  
294 1.3% 20%  
295 2% 19%  
296 4% 17%  
297 3% 13%  
298 3% 9%  
299 0.6% 7%  
300 0.4% 6%  
301 1.2% 6%  
302 2% 5%  
303 0.5% 3%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.7% 2%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations