Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 20–22 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 40.5% 39.1–41.9% 38.7–42.3% 38.4–42.7% 37.7–43.3%
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.5% 38.1–40.9% 37.7–41.3% 37.4–41.7% 36.7–42.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.9% 7.2–8.7% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.9% 4.4–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 294 268–315 262–320 254–324 245–333
Conservative Party 317 286 269–310 264–317 261–323 255–333
Liberal Democrats 12 17 15–21 13–22 12–23 9–26
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 32 13–47 9–50 7–51 3–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.1% 99.3%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 99.1%  
250 0.3% 99.0%  
251 0.3% 98.8%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.1% 97%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 0.4% 97%  
260 0.5% 96%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 1.4% 95% Last Result
263 0.7% 94%  
264 0.6% 93%  
265 1.1% 93%  
266 0.5% 91%  
267 0.5% 91%  
268 0.6% 90%  
269 1.4% 90%  
270 0.5% 88%  
271 1.1% 88%  
272 0.5% 87%  
273 2% 86%  
274 2% 84%  
275 1.2% 82%  
276 2% 81%  
277 1.2% 80%  
278 2% 78%  
279 0.7% 77%  
280 0.7% 76%  
281 0.8% 75%  
282 2% 74%  
283 2% 73%  
284 3% 71%  
285 2% 68%  
286 3% 65%  
287 3% 62%  
288 3% 59%  
289 0.9% 57%  
290 0.8% 56%  
291 1.3% 55%  
292 1.1% 54%  
293 2% 53%  
294 2% 51% Median
295 3% 49%  
296 2% 46%  
297 6% 44%  
298 3% 38%  
299 2% 34%  
300 1.4% 33%  
301 2% 31%  
302 0.9% 29%  
303 1.4% 28%  
304 1.1% 27%  
305 2% 26%  
306 2% 24%  
307 2% 22%  
308 2% 20%  
309 2% 18%  
310 2% 17%  
311 1.2% 15%  
312 1.2% 13%  
313 1.1% 12%  
314 0.6% 11%  
315 1.2% 11%  
316 1.2% 9%  
317 1.2% 8%  
318 0.4% 7%  
319 0.6% 7%  
320 1.0% 6%  
321 0.3% 5%  
322 0.5% 5%  
323 1.2% 4%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.5%  
330 0.2% 1.1%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.2% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.2%  
258 0.3% 98.9%  
259 0.3% 98.6%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.8% 98%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 0.5% 96%  
264 1.3% 96%  
265 0.6% 95%  
266 0.6% 94%  
267 0.6% 93%  
268 0.9% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 1.5% 90%  
271 2% 88%  
272 2% 87%  
273 3% 84%  
274 2% 82%  
275 3% 80%  
276 3% 77%  
277 3% 74%  
278 2% 71%  
279 2% 69%  
280 2% 68%  
281 2% 66%  
282 2% 63%  
283 2% 61%  
284 3% 59%  
285 3% 56%  
286 4% 53% Median
287 1.4% 49%  
288 3% 48%  
289 2% 45%  
290 2% 43%  
291 4% 41%  
292 2% 38%  
293 2% 35%  
294 1.2% 33%  
295 2% 32%  
296 2% 30%  
297 2% 28%  
298 2% 26%  
299 2% 25%  
300 0.7% 23%  
301 1.3% 22%  
302 2% 21%  
303 0.9% 19%  
304 2% 18%  
305 1.4% 16%  
306 0.8% 15%  
307 0.8% 14%  
308 2% 13%  
309 1.3% 12%  
310 0.7% 10%  
311 0.8% 10%  
312 1.1% 9%  
313 0.8% 8%  
314 0.8% 7%  
315 0.1% 6%  
316 0.5% 6%  
317 0.3% 5% Last Result
318 0.8% 5%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 0.4% 4%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.2% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 0.5% 99.6%  
10 0.4% 99.1%  
11 0.8% 98.7%  
12 1.1% 98% Last Result
13 2% 97%  
14 4% 95%  
15 11% 91%  
16 23% 80%  
17 21% 57% Median
18 9% 36%  
19 5% 27%  
20 8% 22%  
21 8% 14%  
22 0.9% 6%  
23 2% 5%  
24 0.7% 2%  
25 0.7% 2%  
26 0.8% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.8% 99.8% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.6%  
4 0.5% 99.1%  
5 0.5% 98.7%  
6 0.5% 98%  
7 1.1% 98%  
8 0.8% 97%  
9 4% 96%  
10 0.5% 92%  
11 0.2% 91%  
12 0.2% 91%  
13 2% 91%  
14 2% 88%  
15 1.2% 86%  
16 0.3% 85%  
17 1.0% 85%  
18 0.6% 84%  
19 2% 83%  
20 0.8% 82%  
21 2% 81%  
22 0.5% 79%  
23 1.0% 78%  
24 2% 77%  
25 1.1% 75%  
26 3% 74%  
27 1.4% 71%  
28 9% 69%  
29 6% 60%  
30 2% 54%  
31 0.3% 52%  
32 2% 52% Median
33 3% 50%  
34 0.7% 46%  
35 3% 45% Last Result
36 3% 42%  
37 0.1% 39%  
38 4% 39%  
39 3% 36%  
40 1.1% 32%  
41 2% 31%  
42 2% 30%  
43 3% 27%  
44 4% 24%  
45 5% 20%  
46 2% 15%  
47 5% 13%  
48 1.0% 8%  
49 2% 7%  
50 0.9% 5%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.5% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.4%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Median
1 19% 40%  
2 15% 20%  
3 2% 6%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 344 84% 320–361 313–366 307–369 297–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 343 83% 319–360 312–366 306–368 296–374
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 319 39% 297–346 291–352 287–359 277–369
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 319 38% 297–345 291–352 287–358 277–368
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 326 52% 303–342 296–347 290–350 281–357
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 325 50% 302–341 296–347 289–350 280–357
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 311 22% 285–333 278–339 272–343 262–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 311 20% 284–333 278–339 271–343 261–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 304 11% 288–327 283–334 280–340 273–349
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 295 2% 269–316 262–321 255–325 246–334
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 287 2% 270–311 264–318 262–324 256–334
Labour Party 262 294 2% 268–315 262–320 254–324 245–333
Conservative Party 317 286 2% 269–310 264–317 261–323 255–333

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 99.3%  
301 0.2% 99.1%  
302 0.2% 99.0%  
303 0.2% 98.7%  
304 0.2% 98.6%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.2% 97%  
309 0.5% 97%  
310 0.4% 97%  
311 0.5% 96%  
312 0.8% 96%  
313 0.3% 95% Last Result
314 0.5% 95%  
315 0.1% 94%  
316 0.8% 94%  
317 0.8% 93%  
318 1.1% 92%  
319 0.8% 91%  
320 0.7% 90%  
321 1.3% 90%  
322 2% 88%  
323 0.8% 87%  
324 0.8% 86%  
325 1.4% 85%  
326 2% 84% Majority
327 0.9% 82%  
328 2% 81%  
329 1.3% 79%  
330 0.7% 78%  
331 2% 77%  
332 2% 75%  
333 2% 74%  
334 2% 72%  
335 2% 70%  
336 1.2% 68%  
337 2% 67%  
338 2% 65%  
339 4% 62%  
340 2% 59%  
341 2% 57%  
342 3% 55%  
343 1.4% 52% Median
344 4% 51%  
345 3% 47%  
346 3% 44%  
347 2% 41%  
348 2% 39%  
349 2% 37%  
350 2% 34%  
351 2% 32%  
352 2% 31%  
353 3% 29%  
354 3% 26%  
355 3% 23%  
356 2% 20%  
357 3% 18%  
358 2% 16%  
359 2% 13%  
360 2% 12%  
361 2% 10%  
362 0.9% 8%  
363 0.6% 7%  
364 0.6% 7%  
365 0.6% 6%  
366 1.4% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.7% 4%  
369 0.8% 3%  
370 0.4% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.4%  
373 0.3% 1.1%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.5%  
298 0.1% 99.4%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.2%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 98.7%  
303 0.2% 98.6%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 0.4% 97%  
309 0.8% 97% Last Result
310 0.3% 96%  
311 0.3% 96%  
312 0.8% 96%  
313 0.3% 95%  
314 0.6% 94%  
315 0.4% 94%  
316 1.0% 93%  
317 0.7% 92%  
318 1.1% 92%  
319 1.2% 91%  
320 1.0% 89%  
321 0.7% 88%  
322 1.4% 88%  
323 0.9% 86%  
324 0.8% 85%  
325 2% 85%  
326 2% 83% Majority
327 0.8% 81%  
328 2% 80%  
329 1.1% 78%  
330 0.9% 77%  
331 2% 76%  
332 2% 74%  
333 0.4% 72%  
334 2% 71%  
335 3% 69%  
336 1.3% 66%  
337 2% 65%  
338 3% 63%  
339 4% 60%  
340 1.3% 56%  
341 2% 55%  
342 3% 53%  
343 2% 51% Median
344 3% 49%  
345 3% 46%  
346 3% 42%  
347 2% 39%  
348 2% 37%  
349 2% 35%  
350 2% 33%  
351 2% 31%  
352 2% 29%  
353 3% 27%  
354 3% 24%  
355 2% 21%  
356 2% 19%  
357 3% 17%  
358 3% 14%  
359 1.3% 11%  
360 1.0% 10%  
361 2% 9%  
362 0.7% 7%  
363 0.4% 7%  
364 0.7% 6%  
365 0.3% 5%  
366 1.5% 5%  
367 0.8% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.6% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.2% 1.4%  
372 0.3% 1.2%  
373 0.2% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.4% 99.0%  
283 0.2% 98.7%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.5% 97%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.7% 96%  
291 1.1% 96%  
292 0.4% 95%  
293 1.3% 94%  
294 0.8% 93%  
295 0.7% 92%  
296 0.5% 91%  
297 1.0% 91%  
298 2% 90%  
299 0.8% 88%  
300 1.5% 87%  
301 1.0% 86%  
302 1.1% 85%  
303 2% 84%  
304 2% 82%  
305 2% 80%  
306 1.1% 78%  
307 1.4% 77%  
308 1.1% 75%  
309 1.1% 74%  
310 2% 73%  
311 2% 71%  
312 3% 69%  
313 2% 66%  
314 1.1% 64%  
315 3% 63%  
316 3% 60%  
317 2% 57%  
318 3% 55% Median
319 3% 52%  
320 1.1% 50%  
321 3% 49%  
322 2% 46%  
323 1.1% 44%  
324 2% 43%  
325 2% 41%  
326 2% 39% Majority
327 1.0% 37%  
328 2% 36%  
329 2% 33%  
330 2% 31%  
331 3% 29%  
332 1.4% 26%  
333 0.5% 25%  
334 0.7% 24%  
335 0.8% 24%  
336 3% 23%  
337 2% 20%  
338 0.8% 18%  
339 1.1% 17%  
340 1.1% 16%  
341 1.4% 15%  
342 0.5% 13%  
343 0.8% 13%  
344 0.7% 12%  
345 1.5% 12%  
346 0.8% 10%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 0.7% 9%  
349 0.8% 8%  
350 0.7% 7%  
351 0.8% 6%  
352 0.9% 6%  
353 0.6% 5%  
354 0.3% 4%  
355 0.3% 4%  
356 0.4% 3% Last Result
357 0.3% 3%  
358 0.2% 3%  
359 0.4% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.3% 1.5%  
364 0.1% 1.2%  
365 0.1% 1.1%  
366 0.1% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.8%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.3% 98.5%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.6% 97%  
289 0.7% 97%  
290 0.8% 96%  
291 0.7% 95%  
292 1.0% 94%  
293 1.1% 93%  
294 0.6% 92%  
295 0.5% 92%  
296 0.9% 91%  
297 2% 90%  
298 0.9% 88%  
299 1.1% 88%  
300 1.4% 86%  
301 0.9% 85%  
302 1.0% 84%  
303 2% 83%  
304 4% 81%  
305 1.1% 78%  
306 1.0% 77%  
307 2% 76%  
308 1.1% 74%  
309 1.0% 73%  
310 3% 72%  
311 2% 70%  
312 3% 67%  
313 2% 65%  
314 2% 63%  
315 2% 61%  
316 2% 59%  
317 2% 56%  
318 3% 54% Median
319 2% 51%  
320 0.8% 49%  
321 3% 48%  
322 1.4% 45%  
323 2% 43%  
324 2% 41%  
325 1.2% 39%  
326 2% 38% Majority
327 0.6% 35%  
328 3% 35%  
329 3% 32%  
330 2% 29%  
331 2% 28%  
332 1.2% 25%  
333 0.4% 24%  
334 0.7% 24%  
335 2% 23%  
336 3% 21%  
337 0.9% 18%  
338 0.7% 17%  
339 1.2% 16%  
340 0.7% 15%  
341 1.3% 14%  
342 0.8% 13%  
343 0.7% 12%  
344 0.7% 12%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.6% 9%  
347 0.8% 9%  
348 0.8% 8%  
349 0.5% 7%  
350 0.6% 7%  
351 0.9% 6%  
352 1.1% 5% Last Result
353 0.2% 4%  
354 0.4% 4%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.2% 3%  
357 0.3% 3%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.2% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.3%  
364 0.1% 1.1%  
365 0.2% 1.0%  
366 0.1% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.4%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.3% 99.0%  
287 0.1% 98.7%  
288 0.2% 98.6%  
289 0.7% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.5% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.8% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.2% 95%  
298 0.3% 95%  
299 0.6% 94%  
300 1.3% 94%  
301 1.2% 92% Last Result
302 0.6% 91%  
303 0.9% 91%  
304 0.8% 90%  
305 2% 89%  
306 0.8% 87%  
307 0.9% 86%  
308 1.1% 85%  
309 2% 84%  
310 2% 83%  
311 0.9% 80%  
312 2% 79%  
313 0.9% 78%  
314 1.4% 77%  
315 2% 75%  
316 2% 73%  
317 0.9% 71%  
318 2% 70%  
319 3% 69%  
320 3% 66%  
321 0.9% 64%  
322 3% 63%  
323 3% 60%  
324 2% 57%  
325 3% 55%  
326 2% 52% Median, Majority
327 4% 50%  
328 2% 46%  
329 4% 44%  
330 3% 41%  
331 2% 37%  
332 2% 35%  
333 3% 33%  
334 2% 30%  
335 2% 28%  
336 2% 26%  
337 3% 24%  
338 2% 21%  
339 2% 19%  
340 2% 17%  
341 3% 15%  
342 2% 12%  
343 1.2% 10%  
344 0.8% 8%  
345 1.2% 8%  
346 0.9% 6%  
347 0.5% 6%  
348 1.0% 5%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.7% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.2% 1.2%  
355 0.1% 1.0%  
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.2% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0.3% 99.1%  
286 0.2% 98.7%  
287 0.2% 98.6%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.4% 97%  
291 0.4% 97%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.8% 96%  
295 0.3% 95%  
296 0.2% 95%  
297 0.3% 95% Last Result
298 0.6% 95%  
299 1.0% 94%  
300 1.1% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 0.5% 90%  
303 0.7% 90%  
304 1.1% 89%  
305 1.4% 88%  
306 0.7% 86%  
307 0.8% 86%  
308 2% 85%  
309 2% 83%  
310 2% 81%  
311 0.5% 79%  
312 2% 79%  
313 1.4% 77%  
314 2% 76%  
315 1.3% 74%  
316 2% 72%  
317 1.1% 70%  
318 2% 69%  
319 3% 67%  
320 3% 65%  
321 0.9% 62%  
322 3% 61%  
323 3% 58%  
324 2% 55%  
325 4% 54%  
326 2% 50% Median, Majority
327 3% 48%  
328 2% 45%  
329 4% 43%  
330 2% 39%  
331 3% 37%  
332 3% 34%  
333 3% 31%  
334 2% 28%  
335 2% 27%  
336 3% 24%  
337 2% 22%  
338 2% 20%  
339 2% 18%  
340 2% 16%  
341 3% 13%  
342 1.2% 10%  
343 1.1% 9%  
344 0.9% 8%  
345 1.0% 7%  
346 0.8% 6%  
347 0.6% 5%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.8% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.5% 2%  
353 0.2% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 1.0%  
355 0.2% 0.8%  
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.2% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.1% 99.3%  
265 0.2% 99.2%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.2% 98.9%  
268 0.2% 98.7%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.2% 97%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.4% 97%  
277 0.2% 96%  
278 1.1% 96% Last Result
279 0.9% 95%  
280 0.6% 94%  
281 0.5% 93%  
282 0.8% 93%  
283 0.8% 92%  
284 0.6% 91%  
285 2% 91%  
286 0.7% 89%  
287 0.7% 88%  
288 0.8% 88%  
289 1.3% 87%  
290 0.7% 86%  
291 1.2% 85%  
292 0.7% 84%  
293 1.0% 83%  
294 3% 82%  
295 2% 79%  
296 0.7% 77%  
297 0.4% 76%  
298 1.2% 76%  
299 2% 75%  
300 2% 72%  
301 3% 71%  
302 3% 68%  
303 0.6% 65%  
304 2% 65%  
305 1.2% 62%  
306 2% 61%  
307 2% 59%  
308 1.4% 57%  
309 3% 55%  
310 0.8% 52%  
311 2% 51% Median
312 3% 49%  
313 2% 46%  
314 2% 44%  
315 2% 41%  
316 2% 39%  
317 2% 37%  
318 3% 35%  
319 2% 33%  
320 3% 30%  
321 1.0% 28%  
322 1.1% 27%  
323 2% 26%  
324 1.0% 24%  
325 1.1% 23%  
326 4% 22% Majority
327 2% 19%  
328 1.0% 17%  
329 0.9% 16%  
330 1.4% 15%  
331 1.1% 14%  
332 0.9% 12%  
333 2% 12%  
334 0.9% 10%  
335 0.5% 9%  
336 0.6% 8%  
337 1.1% 8%  
338 1.0% 7%  
339 0.7% 6%  
340 0.8% 5%  
341 0.7% 4%  
342 0.6% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.5%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.5%  
263 0.1% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.2%  
265 0.1% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0.3% 98.8%  
268 0.3% 98.5%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.2% 97%  
273 0.3% 97%  
274 0.4% 97% Last Result
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.3% 96%  
277 0.6% 96%  
278 0.9% 95%  
279 0.8% 94%  
280 0.7% 94%  
281 0.8% 93%  
282 0.7% 92%  
283 0.7% 91%  
284 0.8% 91%  
285 1.5% 90%  
286 0.7% 88%  
287 0.8% 88%  
288 0.5% 87%  
289 1.4% 87%  
290 1.1% 85%  
291 1.1% 84%  
292 0.8% 83%  
293 2% 82%  
294 3% 80%  
295 0.8% 77%  
296 0.7% 76%  
297 0.5% 76%  
298 1.4% 75%  
299 3% 74%  
300 2% 71%  
301 2% 69%  
302 2% 67%  
303 1.0% 64%  
304 2% 63%  
305 2% 61%  
306 2% 59%  
307 1.1% 57%  
308 2% 56%  
309 3% 54%  
310 1.1% 51%  
311 3% 50% Median
312 3% 48%  
313 2% 45%  
314 3% 43%  
315 3% 40%  
316 1.2% 37%  
317 2% 36%  
318 3% 34%  
319 2% 31%  
320 2% 29%  
321 1.1% 27%  
322 1.2% 26%  
323 1.4% 25%  
324 1.1% 23%  
325 2% 22%  
326 2% 20% Majority
327 2% 18%  
328 1.1% 16%  
329 1.0% 15%  
330 1.5% 14%  
331 0.8% 13%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.0% 10%  
334 0.5% 9%  
335 0.7% 9%  
336 0.7% 8%  
337 1.3% 7%  
338 0.4% 6%  
339 1.1% 5%  
340 0.7% 4%  
341 0.4% 4%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.4% 1.3%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.2% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.2% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.1% 99.2%  
276 0.2% 99.0%  
277 0.5% 98.8%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.7% 98%  
281 0.7% 97%  
282 1.1% 96%  
283 0.5% 95%  
284 0.9% 94%  
285 1.2% 94%  
286 0.8% 92%  
287 1.2% 92%  
288 2% 90%  
289 3% 88%  
290 2% 85%  
291 2% 83%  
292 2% 81%  
293 3% 79%  
294 2% 76%  
295 2% 74%  
296 2% 72%  
297 3% 70%  
298 2% 67%  
299 2% 65%  
300 3% 63%  
301 4% 59%  
302 2% 56%  
303 4% 54% Median
304 2% 50%  
305 3% 48%  
306 2% 45%  
307 3% 43%  
308 3% 40%  
309 0.9% 37%  
310 3% 36%  
311 3% 34%  
312 2% 31%  
313 0.9% 30%  
314 2% 29%  
315 2% 27%  
316 1.4% 25%  
317 0.9% 23%  
318 2% 22%  
319 0.9% 21%  
320 2% 20%  
321 2% 17%  
322 1.1% 16%  
323 0.9% 15%  
324 0.8% 14%  
325 2% 13%  
326 0.8% 11% Majority
327 0.9% 10%  
328 0.6% 9%  
329 1.2% 9% Last Result
330 1.3% 8%  
331 0.6% 6%  
332 0.3% 6%  
333 0.2% 5%  
334 0.3% 5%  
335 0.4% 5%  
336 0.8% 4%  
337 0.3% 4%  
338 0.5% 3%  
339 0.1% 3%  
340 0.3% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.1% 1.4%  
344 0.3% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.0%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.2% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0% 99.2%  
250 0.2% 99.1%  
251 0.2% 98.9%  
252 0.2% 98.7%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.5% 98%  
255 0.1% 98%  
256 0.1% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.1% 97%  
259 0.3% 97%  
260 0.5% 97%  
261 0.5% 96%  
262 1.1% 96%  
263 0.9% 95%  
264 0.5% 94%  
265 1.1% 93%  
266 0.5% 92% Last Result
267 0.6% 92%  
268 0.6% 91%  
269 2% 90%  
270 0.5% 89%  
271 0.9% 88%  
272 0.8% 87%  
273 1.4% 87%  
274 2% 85%  
275 1.1% 84%  
276 1.2% 83%  
277 1.3% 81%  
278 3% 80%  
279 1.1% 77%  
280 0.6% 76%  
281 0.7% 76%  
282 1.2% 75%  
283 2% 74%  
284 2% 72%  
285 1.5% 69%  
286 4% 68%  
287 4% 64%  
288 2% 60%  
289 1.5% 59%  
290 1.5% 57%  
291 1.3% 56%  
292 0.9% 54%  
293 2% 53%  
294 1.0% 52% Median
295 3% 51%  
296 3% 48%  
297 5% 45%  
298 3% 40%  
299 3% 37%  
300 1.2% 34%  
301 3% 33%  
302 0.9% 30%  
303 2% 29%  
304 1.0% 27%  
305 1.2% 26%  
306 2% 25%  
307 1.2% 23%  
308 2% 22%  
309 2% 20%  
310 2% 18%  
311 1.1% 16%  
312 1.1% 15%  
313 1.4% 13%  
314 1.1% 12%  
315 0.9% 11%  
316 0.8% 10%  
317 2% 9%  
318 0.6% 8%  
319 0.4% 7%  
320 0.8% 6%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 0.3% 5%  
323 0.8% 4%  
324 0.9% 4%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.3%  
331 0.2% 1.1%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.3% 99.1%  
259 0.2% 98.8%  
260 0.3% 98.6%  
261 0.6% 98%  
262 0.5% 98%  
263 0.8% 97%  
264 1.5% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.7% 95%  
267 0.5% 94%  
268 0.7% 93%  
269 2% 93%  
270 1.0% 91%  
271 1.3% 90%  
272 3% 89%  
273 3% 86%  
274 2% 83%  
275 2% 81%  
276 3% 79%  
277 3% 76%  
278 2% 73%  
279 2% 71%  
280 2% 69%  
281 2% 67%  
282 2% 65%  
283 2% 63%  
284 3% 61%  
285 3% 58%  
286 3% 54% Median
287 2% 51%  
288 3% 49%  
289 2% 47%  
290 1.3% 45%  
291 4% 44%  
292 3% 40%  
293 2% 37%  
294 1.3% 35%  
295 3% 34%  
296 2% 31%  
297 0.4% 29%  
298 2% 28%  
299 2% 26%  
300 0.9% 24%  
301 1.1% 23%  
302 2% 22%  
303 0.8% 20%  
304 2% 19%  
305 2% 17%  
306 0.8% 15%  
307 0.9% 15%  
308 1.4% 14%  
309 0.7% 12%  
310 1.0% 12%  
311 1.2% 11%  
312 1.1% 9%  
313 0.7% 8%  
314 1.0% 8%  
315 0.4% 7%  
316 0.6% 6%  
317 0.3% 6%  
318 0.8% 5%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.3% 4%  
321 0.8% 4% Last Result
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.3% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.1% 1.4%  
329 0.3% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.2% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.1% 99.3%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.1% 99.1%  
250 0.3% 99.0%  
251 0.3% 98.8%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.1% 97%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.2% 97%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 0.4% 97%  
260 0.5% 96%  
261 0.6% 96%  
262 1.4% 95% Last Result
263 0.7% 94%  
264 0.6% 93%  
265 1.1% 93%  
266 0.5% 91%  
267 0.5% 91%  
268 0.6% 90%  
269 1.4% 90%  
270 0.5% 88%  
271 1.1% 88%  
272 0.5% 87%  
273 2% 86%  
274 2% 84%  
275 1.2% 82%  
276 2% 81%  
277 1.2% 80%  
278 2% 78%  
279 0.7% 77%  
280 0.7% 76%  
281 0.8% 75%  
282 2% 74%  
283 2% 73%  
284 3% 71%  
285 2% 68%  
286 3% 65%  
287 3% 62%  
288 3% 59%  
289 0.9% 57%  
290 0.8% 56%  
291 1.3% 55%  
292 1.1% 54%  
293 2% 53%  
294 2% 51% Median
295 3% 49%  
296 2% 46%  
297 6% 44%  
298 3% 38%  
299 2% 34%  
300 1.4% 33%  
301 2% 31%  
302 0.9% 29%  
303 1.4% 28%  
304 1.1% 27%  
305 2% 26%  
306 2% 24%  
307 2% 22%  
308 2% 20%  
309 2% 18%  
310 2% 17%  
311 1.2% 15%  
312 1.2% 13%  
313 1.1% 12%  
314 0.6% 11%  
315 1.2% 11%  
316 1.2% 9%  
317 1.2% 8%  
318 0.4% 7%  
319 0.6% 7%  
320 1.0% 6%  
321 0.3% 5%  
322 0.5% 5%  
323 1.2% 4%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.4% 1.5%  
330 0.2% 1.1%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.2% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.6%  
255 0.2% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.2%  
258 0.3% 98.9%  
259 0.3% 98.6%  
260 0.4% 98%  
261 0.8% 98%  
262 0.7% 97%  
263 0.5% 96%  
264 1.3% 96%  
265 0.6% 95%  
266 0.6% 94%  
267 0.6% 93%  
268 0.9% 93%  
269 2% 92%  
270 1.5% 90%  
271 2% 88%  
272 2% 87%  
273 3% 84%  
274 2% 82%  
275 3% 80%  
276 3% 77%  
277 3% 74%  
278 2% 71%  
279 2% 69%  
280 2% 68%  
281 2% 66%  
282 2% 63%  
283 2% 61%  
284 3% 59%  
285 3% 56%  
286 4% 53% Median
287 1.4% 49%  
288 3% 48%  
289 2% 45%  
290 2% 43%  
291 4% 41%  
292 2% 38%  
293 2% 35%  
294 1.2% 33%  
295 2% 32%  
296 2% 30%  
297 2% 28%  
298 2% 26%  
299 2% 25%  
300 0.7% 23%  
301 1.3% 22%  
302 2% 21%  
303 0.9% 19%  
304 2% 18%  
305 1.4% 16%  
306 0.8% 15%  
307 0.8% 14%  
308 2% 13%  
309 1.3% 12%  
310 0.7% 10%  
311 0.8% 10%  
312 1.1% 9%  
313 0.8% 8%  
314 0.8% 7%  
315 0.1% 6%  
316 0.5% 6%  
317 0.3% 5% Last Result
318 0.8% 5%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 0.4% 4%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.2% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.4%  
328 0.2% 1.3%  
329 0.2% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations