Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 22–23 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.3% 36.8–39.9% 36.4–40.3% 36.0–40.7% 35.3–41.4%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.3% 36.8–39.9% 36.4–40.3% 36.0–40.7% 35.3–41.4%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.1% 5.4–6.9% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.4–4.8%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 282 258–307 255–316 250–321 244–326
Labour Party 262 274 249–295 242–301 238–304 235–315
Liberal Democrats 12 27 22–28 21–29 19–30 18–32
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 47 35–51 27–52 24–52 15–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 2–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.2% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.4% 99.2%  
248 0.4% 98.7%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.8% 98%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 0.3% 97%  
253 0.6% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 0.5% 95%  
256 1.3% 95%  
257 3% 93%  
258 1.2% 91%  
259 2% 90%  
260 2% 87%  
261 0.3% 85%  
262 3% 85%  
263 0.9% 82%  
264 2% 81%  
265 1.2% 80%  
266 0.5% 78%  
267 3% 78%  
268 0.7% 75%  
269 0.6% 75%  
270 7% 74%  
271 1.2% 67%  
272 0.4% 66%  
273 1.1% 65%  
274 0.9% 64%  
275 1.1% 63%  
276 4% 62%  
277 2% 58%  
278 1.1% 56%  
279 2% 55%  
280 1.4% 53%  
281 1.0% 52%  
282 2% 51% Median
283 3% 49%  
284 2% 46%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.0% 43%  
287 4% 42%  
288 0.6% 38%  
289 3% 37%  
290 0.7% 34%  
291 0.9% 33%  
292 1.1% 32%  
293 0.9% 31%  
294 0.8% 30%  
295 1.4% 29%  
296 3% 28%  
297 0.6% 25%  
298 2% 25%  
299 2% 23%  
300 0.6% 21%  
301 0.6% 20%  
302 1.3% 20%  
303 1.3% 18%  
304 0.7% 17%  
305 5% 16%  
306 0.1% 11%  
307 1.1% 11%  
308 0.5% 10%  
309 0.7% 9%  
310 0.2% 9%  
311 0.5% 8%  
312 0.5% 8%  
313 0.4% 7%  
314 1.1% 7%  
315 0.2% 6%  
316 1.2% 6%  
317 1.4% 4% Last Result
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 0.1% 3%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 1.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.2% 99.6%  
236 0.7% 99.4%  
237 0.5% 98.7%  
238 1.1% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 0.3% 95%  
241 0.1% 95%  
242 0.8% 95%  
243 0.7% 94%  
244 1.0% 94%  
245 0% 93%  
246 0.9% 92%  
247 0.8% 92%  
248 0.7% 91%  
249 0.4% 90%  
250 0.9% 90%  
251 0.3% 89%  
252 0.3% 89%  
253 0.2% 88%  
254 0.6% 88%  
255 4% 87%  
256 1.0% 83%  
257 3% 82%  
258 0.6% 80%  
259 2% 79%  
260 1.0% 77%  
261 5% 76%  
262 2% 71% Last Result
263 2% 69%  
264 0.4% 66%  
265 0.5% 66%  
266 0.5% 66%  
267 0.3% 65%  
268 2% 65%  
269 2% 63%  
270 2% 62%  
271 2% 59%  
272 5% 58%  
273 1.2% 53%  
274 4% 52% Median
275 1.1% 48%  
276 0.7% 47%  
277 0.7% 46%  
278 4% 45%  
279 2% 41%  
280 1.2% 39%  
281 1.4% 38%  
282 2% 37%  
283 0.7% 34%  
284 2% 34%  
285 5% 32%  
286 1.1% 27%  
287 2% 26%  
288 0.8% 23%  
289 1.5% 23%  
290 1.2% 21%  
291 5% 20%  
292 1.2% 15%  
293 3% 14%  
294 0.9% 11%  
295 0.8% 10%  
296 1.0% 9%  
297 1.4% 8%  
298 0.8% 7%  
299 0.6% 6%  
300 0.3% 5%  
301 2% 5%  
302 0.4% 4%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.4% 3%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.1% 1.4%  
309 0.1% 1.3%  
310 0.5% 1.3%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 0.2% 99.7%  
18 0.5% 99.5%  
19 2% 99.0%  
20 2% 97%  
21 3% 95%  
22 3% 92%  
23 3% 89%  
24 4% 86%  
25 13% 82%  
26 15% 69%  
27 20% 54% Median
28 24% 34%  
29 6% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 100% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.7%  
15 0.2% 99.7%  
16 0.1% 99.5%  
17 0.1% 99.4%  
18 0% 99.3%  
19 0.1% 99.3%  
20 0.1% 99.2%  
21 0.1% 99.2%  
22 0.9% 99.1%  
23 0.5% 98%  
24 1.1% 98%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0.5% 97%  
27 2% 96%  
28 0.7% 94%  
29 1.4% 93%  
30 0.1% 92%  
31 0.1% 92%  
32 0.1% 92%  
33 1.0% 92%  
34 0.3% 91%  
35 0.4% 90% Last Result
36 0.5% 90%  
37 0.3% 89%  
38 7% 89%  
39 3% 82%  
40 5% 80%  
41 10% 75%  
42 2% 65%  
43 0.6% 63%  
44 0.9% 62%  
45 2% 61%  
46 8% 59%  
47 4% 51% Median
48 6% 46%  
49 2% 41%  
50 19% 39%  
51 12% 19%  
52 5% 7%  
53 0.3% 2%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.1% 0.5%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 2% 98.8%  
2 13% 96%  
3 34% 83% Median
4 16% 49% Last Result
5 33% 34%  
6 0.2% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 348 84% 323–372 314–375 309–380 304–386
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 345 80% 318–368 311–371 306–376 299–383
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 330 57% 308–356 302–363 298–367 288–372
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 326 52% 305–352 299–360 295–364 285–368
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 323 46% 298–344 289–348 285–352 280–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 319 38% 294–341 285–344 281–349 276–355
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 307 20% 286–332 282–341 278–345 272–349
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 304 9% 278–325 270–331 266–335 262–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 300 6% 274–322 267–328 263–332 258–342
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 285 1.3% 262–312 259–319 254–324 247–331
Conservative Party 317 282 0.6% 258–307 255–316 250–321 244–326
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 277 0.1% 253–298 246–303 242–307 239–318
Labour Party 262 274 0% 249–295 242–301 238–304 235–315

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0% 99.2%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 1.3% 99.0%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 0.2% 97%  
313 1.4% 97% Last Result
314 1.2% 96%  
315 0.2% 94%  
316 1.1% 94%  
317 0.4% 93%  
318 0.5% 93%  
319 0.5% 92%  
320 0.2% 92%  
321 0.7% 91%  
322 0.5% 91%  
323 1.1% 90%  
324 0.1% 89%  
325 5% 89%  
326 0.7% 84% Majority
327 1.3% 83%  
328 1.3% 82%  
329 0.6% 80%  
330 0.6% 80%  
331 2% 79%  
332 2% 77%  
333 0.7% 75%  
334 3% 75%  
335 1.4% 72%  
336 0.8% 71%  
337 0.9% 70%  
338 1.2% 69%  
339 0.9% 68%  
340 0.7% 67%  
341 3% 66%  
342 0.6% 63%  
343 4% 62%  
344 1.0% 58%  
345 2% 57%  
346 2% 55%  
347 3% 54%  
348 2% 51%  
349 1.0% 49%  
350 1.4% 48%  
351 2% 47% Median
352 1.1% 45%  
353 2% 44%  
354 4% 42%  
355 1.1% 38%  
356 0.9% 37%  
357 1.1% 36%  
358 0.5% 35%  
359 1.1% 34%  
360 7% 33%  
361 0.6% 26%  
362 0.7% 25%  
363 3% 25%  
364 0.5% 22%  
365 1.2% 22%  
366 2% 20%  
367 0.9% 19%  
368 3% 18%  
369 0.3% 15%  
370 2% 15%  
371 2% 13%  
372 1.2% 10%  
373 3% 9%  
374 1.3% 6%  
375 0.5% 5%  
376 0.7% 5%  
377 0.6% 4%  
378 0.3% 3%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.8% 3%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.4% 1.3%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.3% 0.7%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0.2% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.2% 99.3%  
303 0.2% 99.1%  
304 0.2% 98.9%  
305 1.1% 98.7%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 1.0% 97%  
309 0.2% 96% Last Result
310 0.5% 96%  
311 2% 96%  
312 0.4% 93%  
313 0.2% 93%  
314 0.4% 93%  
315 0.3% 92%  
316 0.9% 92%  
317 0.4% 91%  
318 1.1% 91%  
319 0.4% 90%  
320 0.4% 89%  
321 3% 89%  
322 0.9% 86%  
323 3% 85%  
324 0.4% 82%  
325 1.1% 81%  
326 2% 80% Majority
327 2% 79%  
328 0.6% 76%  
329 1.1% 76%  
330 0.5% 74%  
331 0.4% 74%  
332 3% 73%  
333 2% 70%  
334 0.4% 68%  
335 0.4% 68%  
336 2% 68%  
337 0.4% 65%  
338 2% 65%  
339 1.4% 63%  
340 5% 61%  
341 2% 56%  
342 0.4% 54%  
343 0.5% 54%  
344 3% 54%  
345 2% 51%  
346 2% 49%  
347 0.4% 47%  
348 0.6% 47% Median
349 6% 46%  
350 1.4% 40%  
351 1.4% 39%  
352 1.3% 37%  
353 0.4% 36%  
354 1.0% 35%  
355 0.8% 34%  
356 6% 34%  
357 1.3% 28%  
358 3% 26%  
359 0.7% 23%  
360 0.7% 22%  
361 0.6% 22%  
362 0.6% 21%  
363 2% 21%  
364 0.6% 18%  
365 3% 17%  
366 2% 15%  
367 2% 13%  
368 2% 11%  
369 1.0% 9%  
370 2% 8%  
371 0.8% 6%  
372 0.2% 5%  
373 0.7% 5%  
374 0.9% 4%  
375 0.6% 3%  
376 0.2% 3%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.9% 2%  
380 0.1% 0.9%  
381 0.3% 0.8%  
382 0% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.4% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 98.8%  
294 0.1% 98.7%  
295 0.4% 98.6%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.2% 97%  
300 0.8% 97%  
301 1.4% 96%  
302 0.2% 95%  
303 0.2% 95%  
304 0.7% 95%  
305 0.8% 94%  
306 1.0% 93%  
307 0.9% 92%  
308 1.4% 91%  
309 1.2% 90%  
310 3% 89%  
311 0.8% 85%  
312 3% 85%  
313 2% 82%  
314 1.0% 79%  
315 3% 78%  
316 0.9% 76%  
317 1.4% 75%  
318 1.5% 73%  
319 0.8% 72%  
320 5% 71%  
321 0.5% 66%  
322 3% 66%  
323 1.3% 63%  
324 4% 62%  
325 1.0% 58%  
326 0.3% 57% Majority
327 1.0% 57%  
328 3% 56%  
329 2% 53%  
330 2% 51%  
331 5% 49%  
332 3% 45% Median
333 2% 42%  
334 0.2% 40%  
335 3% 40%  
336 0.2% 37%  
337 0.5% 37%  
338 0.7% 37%  
339 2% 36%  
340 2% 34%  
341 2% 32%  
342 3% 29%  
343 0.4% 27%  
344 3% 26%  
345 0.8% 24%  
346 2% 23%  
347 3% 21%  
348 1.1% 18%  
349 0.8% 17%  
350 3% 16%  
351 0.3% 13%  
352 0.4% 13%  
353 0.5% 12%  
354 1.0% 12%  
355 0.8% 11%  
356 0.7% 10% Last Result
357 0.8% 9%  
358 0.2% 9%  
359 0.3% 8%  
360 1.0% 8%  
361 1.2% 7%  
362 0.7% 6%  
363 0.4% 5%  
364 0.4% 5%  
365 0.1% 4%  
366 0.3% 4%  
367 2% 4%  
368 0.7% 2%  
369 0.1% 1.3%  
370 0.2% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 0.9%  
372 0.3% 0.7%  
373 0% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.4%  
288 0.5% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 98.9%  
290 0.1% 98.8%  
291 0.1% 98.7%  
292 0.1% 98.6%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.4% 97%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 2% 96%  
300 0.7% 95%  
301 0.8% 94%  
302 0.5% 93%  
303 1.0% 93%  
304 0.8% 92%  
305 2% 91%  
306 1.1% 88%  
307 4% 87%  
308 0.4% 84%  
309 2% 83%  
310 3% 82%  
311 0.7% 79%  
312 3% 78%  
313 0.5% 75%  
314 1.2% 74%  
315 2% 73%  
316 5% 71%  
317 2% 66%  
318 0.7% 64%  
319 0.5% 63%  
320 1.4% 63%  
321 4% 61%  
322 0.7% 57%  
323 0.4% 57%  
324 1.2% 56%  
325 3% 55%  
326 6% 52% Majority
327 1.2% 46%  
328 1.3% 45%  
329 2% 44% Median
330 2% 42%  
331 2% 41%  
332 1.5% 38%  
333 0.5% 37%  
334 0.7% 36%  
335 1.5% 36%  
336 0.4% 34%  
337 3% 34%  
338 2% 31%  
339 4% 28%  
340 0.5% 24%  
341 1.0% 24%  
342 0.9% 23%  
343 2% 22%  
344 0.7% 20%  
345 3% 19%  
346 3% 17%  
347 0.5% 13%  
348 0.7% 13%  
349 0.2% 12%  
350 0.3% 12%  
351 1.0% 12%  
352 1.3% 11% Last Result
353 0.2% 9%  
354 0.7% 9%  
355 0.7% 8%  
356 0.8% 8%  
357 0.7% 7%  
358 0.6% 6%  
359 0.4% 5%  
360 0.5% 5%  
361 0.3% 5%  
362 0.7% 4%  
363 0.2% 4%  
364 2% 3%  
365 0.7% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.3%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 1.4% 99.1%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.1% 97%  
287 0.6% 97%  
288 1.4% 97%  
289 0.5% 95%  
290 1.2% 95%  
291 0.6% 94%  
292 0.4% 93%  
293 0.2% 92%  
294 0.5% 92%  
295 0.9% 92%  
296 0.7% 91%  
297 0.1% 90%  
298 1.0% 90%  
299 3% 89%  
300 3% 86%  
301 0.1% 83% Last Result
302 0.1% 83%  
303 0.8% 83%  
304 2% 82%  
305 3% 80%  
306 3% 77%  
307 0.8% 74%  
308 1.3% 73%  
309 0.9% 72%  
310 1.5% 71%  
311 1.4% 70%  
312 0.1% 68%  
313 0.7% 68%  
314 2% 68%  
315 6% 66%  
316 2% 60%  
317 0.6% 58%  
318 1.4% 58%  
319 3% 56%  
320 3% 54%  
321 0.6% 51%  
322 0.2% 50%  
323 0.2% 50%  
324 3% 50% Median
325 2% 47%  
326 2% 46% Majority
327 4% 44%  
328 0.9% 39%  
329 1.3% 39%  
330 1.1% 37%  
331 2% 36%  
332 2% 35%  
333 1.2% 33%  
334 1.0% 32%  
335 5% 31%  
336 1.5% 26%  
337 3% 24%  
338 2% 21%  
339 0.3% 20%  
340 2% 19%  
341 0.9% 17%  
342 0.6% 16%  
343 1.3% 15%  
344 5% 14%  
345 0.4% 9%  
346 2% 9%  
347 0.8% 6%  
348 0.8% 5%  
349 0.7% 5%  
350 0.4% 4%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.6% 3%  
353 0.1% 2%  
354 0.4% 2%  
355 0.4% 1.4%  
356 0.1% 1.0%  
357 0.2% 0.9%  
358 0.3% 0.7%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.1% 99.2%  
280 0.2% 99.0%  
281 1.4% 98.8%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.9% 97%  
284 0.4% 96%  
285 1.4% 96%  
286 0.6% 94%  
287 0.7% 94%  
288 0.2% 93%  
289 0.9% 93%  
290 1.0% 92%  
291 0.8% 91%  
292 0.2% 90%  
293 0.1% 90%  
294 0.5% 90%  
295 1.2% 90%  
296 3% 88%  
297 2% 85% Last Result
298 0.4% 83%  
299 1.0% 83%  
300 3% 82%  
301 1.0% 79%  
302 3% 78%  
303 0.6% 76%  
304 2% 75%  
305 1.3% 73%  
306 1.3% 71%  
307 0.3% 70%  
308 1.3% 70%  
309 0.5% 69%  
310 2% 68%  
311 2% 66%  
312 4% 64%  
313 2% 59%  
314 0.3% 57%  
315 0.9% 57%  
316 3% 56%  
317 2% 53%  
318 0.5% 51%  
319 2% 51%  
320 0.5% 49%  
321 1.0% 48% Median
322 4% 47%  
323 2% 43%  
324 2% 41%  
325 0.9% 39%  
326 2% 38% Majority
327 0.8% 36%  
328 1.0% 35%  
329 1.3% 34%  
330 2% 33%  
331 5% 31%  
332 3% 26%  
333 0.7% 23%  
334 0.4% 22%  
335 2% 21%  
336 1.1% 19%  
337 2% 18%  
338 0.5% 16%  
339 2% 16%  
340 1.4% 14%  
341 5% 12%  
342 0.2% 8%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.3% 5%  
345 0.3% 5%  
346 1.2% 5%  
347 0.3% 3%  
348 0.3% 3%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.7% 2%  
352 0.1% 1.1%  
353 0.3% 1.0%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.2% 0.6%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.2% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.3% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0.4% 99.0%  
276 0.4% 98.5%  
277 0.1% 98%  
278 0.6% 98%  
279 1.0% 97%  
280 0.4% 96%  
281 0.7% 96%  
282 0.8% 95%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 2% 94%  
285 0.5% 91%  
286 5% 91%  
287 1.4% 86%  
288 0.6% 85%  
289 0.9% 84%  
290 2% 83%  
291 0.3% 81%  
292 2% 80%  
293 3% 79%  
294 1.4% 76%  
295 5% 74%  
296 1.0% 69%  
297 1.1% 68%  
298 2% 67%  
299 2% 65%  
300 1.0% 64%  
301 1.3% 63%  
302 0.9% 61%  
303 4% 61%  
304 2% 56%  
305 2% 54%  
306 3% 53%  
307 0.2% 50%  
308 0.2% 50%  
309 0.6% 50% Median
310 3% 49%  
311 3% 46%  
312 1.4% 44%  
313 0.6% 42%  
314 2% 42%  
315 6% 40%  
316 2% 34%  
317 0.7% 32%  
318 0.1% 32%  
319 1.3% 32%  
320 1.5% 30%  
321 0.9% 29%  
322 1.3% 28%  
323 0.7% 27%  
324 3% 26%  
325 3% 23%  
326 2% 20% Majority
327 0.8% 18%  
328 0.1% 17%  
329 0.1% 17% Last Result
330 3% 17%  
331 3% 14%  
332 0.9% 11%  
333 0.1% 10%  
334 0.7% 10%  
335 0.9% 9%  
336 0.6% 8%  
337 0.2% 8%  
338 0.4% 7%  
339 0.6% 7%  
340 1.2% 6%  
341 0.5% 5%  
342 1.4% 5%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 1.4% 2%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0.3% 99.5%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.8% 99.0%  
266 2% 98%  
267 0.2% 97%  
268 0.7% 96%  
269 0.3% 96%  
270 0.5% 95%  
271 0.4% 95%  
272 0.6% 95%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 0.8% 93%  
275 0.7% 92%  
276 0.7% 92%  
277 0.2% 91%  
278 1.3% 91% Last Result
279 1.0% 89%  
280 0.3% 88%  
281 0.2% 88%  
282 0.7% 88%  
283 0.5% 87%  
284 3% 87%  
285 3% 83%  
286 0.7% 81%  
287 2% 80%  
288 0.9% 78%  
289 1.0% 77%  
290 0.5% 76%  
291 4% 75%  
292 2% 72%  
293 3% 69%  
294 0.4% 66%  
295 1.5% 66%  
296 0.7% 64%  
297 0.5% 64%  
298 1.5% 63%  
299 2% 62%  
300 2% 59%  
301 1.5% 58%  
302 1.4% 56%  
303 1.2% 55%  
304 6% 54% Median
305 3% 48%  
306 1.2% 45%  
307 0.4% 44%  
308 0.7% 43%  
309 4% 43%  
310 1.4% 39%  
311 0.5% 37%  
312 0.7% 37%  
313 2% 36%  
314 5% 34%  
315 2% 29%  
316 1.3% 27%  
317 0.5% 26%  
318 3% 25%  
319 0.7% 22%  
320 3% 21%  
321 2% 18%  
322 0.4% 17%  
323 4% 16%  
324 1.2% 13%  
325 2% 12%  
326 0.8% 9% Majority
327 1.0% 8%  
328 0.5% 7%  
329 0.8% 7%  
330 0.7% 6%  
331 2% 5%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.6% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.4%  
340 0.1% 1.3%  
341 0.1% 1.2%  
342 0.5% 1.1%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.4%  
347 0.2% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0.3% 99.6%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0.3% 99.1%  
261 0.1% 98.9%  
262 0.7% 98.7%  
263 2% 98%  
264 0.3% 96%  
265 0.1% 96%  
266 0.4% 96%  
267 0.4% 95%  
268 0.7% 95%  
269 1.2% 94%  
270 1.0% 93%  
271 0.3% 92%  
272 0.2% 92%  
273 0.8% 91%  
274 0.7% 91% Last Result
275 0.8% 90%  
276 1.0% 89%  
277 0.5% 88%  
278 0.4% 88%  
279 0.3% 87%  
280 3% 87%  
281 0.9% 84%  
282 1.1% 83%  
283 3% 82%  
284 2% 79%  
285 0.8% 77%  
286 3% 76%  
287 0.4% 74%  
288 3% 73%  
289 2% 71%  
290 2% 68%  
291 2% 66%  
292 0.7% 64%  
293 0.5% 63%  
294 0.2% 63%  
295 3% 63%  
296 0.2% 60%  
297 2% 60%  
298 3% 58%  
299 5% 55%  
300 2% 51%  
301 2% 49% Median
302 3% 47%  
303 1.0% 44%  
304 0.3% 43%  
305 1.0% 43%  
306 4% 42%  
307 1.3% 38%  
308 3% 37%  
309 0.6% 34%  
310 5% 34%  
311 0.8% 29%  
312 2% 28%  
313 1.4% 27%  
314 0.8% 25%  
315 3% 24%  
316 0.9% 22%  
317 2% 21%  
318 3% 18%  
319 0.8% 15%  
320 3% 15%  
321 1.2% 11%  
322 1.4% 10%  
323 0.8% 9%  
324 1.0% 8%  
325 0.8% 7%  
326 0.7% 6% Majority
327 0.2% 5%  
328 0.3% 5%  
329 1.4% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.1% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.3%  
337 0.1% 1.3%  
338 0.4% 1.2%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0% 99.5%  
249 0.3% 99.5%  
250 0.1% 99.2%  
251 0.9% 99.1%  
252 0.2% 98%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.2% 98%  
255 0.6% 97%  
256 0.9% 97%  
257 0.6% 96%  
258 0.2% 95%  
259 0.8% 95%  
260 2% 94%  
261 1.0% 92%  
262 2% 91%  
263 2% 89%  
264 2% 87%  
265 3% 85%  
266 0.7% 83%  
267 2% 82%  
268 0.6% 79%  
269 0.6% 79%  
270 0.7% 78%  
271 0.7% 78%  
272 3% 77%  
273 1.3% 74%  
274 6% 72%  
275 0.8% 66%  
276 1.0% 66%  
277 0.4% 65%  
278 1.3% 64%  
279 1.4% 63%  
280 1.4% 61%  
281 6% 60%  
282 0.6% 54%  
283 0.4% 53%  
284 2% 53%  
285 2% 51% Median
286 3% 49%  
287 0.5% 46%  
288 0.4% 46%  
289 2% 46%  
290 5% 44%  
291 1.4% 39%  
292 2% 37%  
293 0.4% 35%  
294 2% 35%  
295 0.3% 32%  
296 0.5% 32%  
297 2% 31%  
298 3% 30%  
299 0.4% 27%  
300 0.5% 26%  
301 1.1% 26%  
302 0.6% 24%  
303 2% 24%  
304 2% 21%  
305 1.1% 20%  
306 0.4% 19%  
307 3% 18%  
308 0.9% 15%  
309 3% 14%  
310 0.5% 11%  
311 0.4% 11%  
312 1.0% 10%  
313 0.4% 9%  
314 0.9% 9%  
315 0.3% 8%  
316 0.4% 8%  
317 0.2% 7%  
318 0.4% 7%  
319 2% 7%  
320 0.5% 4%  
321 0.2% 4% Last Result
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 1.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 1.3% Majority
327 0.2% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.2% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.2% 99.8%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.3%  
246 0.1% 99.3%  
247 0.4% 99.2%  
248 0.4% 98.7%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.8% 98%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 0.3% 97%  
253 0.6% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 0.5% 95%  
256 1.3% 95%  
257 3% 93%  
258 1.2% 91%  
259 2% 90%  
260 2% 87%  
261 0.3% 85%  
262 3% 85%  
263 0.9% 82%  
264 2% 81%  
265 1.2% 80%  
266 0.5% 78%  
267 3% 78%  
268 0.7% 75%  
269 0.6% 75%  
270 7% 74%  
271 1.2% 67%  
272 0.4% 66%  
273 1.1% 65%  
274 0.9% 64%  
275 1.1% 63%  
276 4% 62%  
277 2% 58%  
278 1.1% 56%  
279 2% 55%  
280 1.4% 53%  
281 1.0% 52%  
282 2% 51% Median
283 3% 49%  
284 2% 46%  
285 2% 45%  
286 1.0% 43%  
287 4% 42%  
288 0.6% 38%  
289 3% 37%  
290 0.7% 34%  
291 0.9% 33%  
292 1.1% 32%  
293 0.9% 31%  
294 0.8% 30%  
295 1.4% 29%  
296 3% 28%  
297 0.6% 25%  
298 2% 25%  
299 2% 23%  
300 0.6% 21%  
301 0.6% 20%  
302 1.3% 20%  
303 1.3% 18%  
304 0.7% 17%  
305 5% 16%  
306 0.1% 11%  
307 1.1% 11%  
308 0.5% 10%  
309 0.7% 9%  
310 0.2% 9%  
311 0.5% 8%  
312 0.5% 8%  
313 0.4% 7%  
314 1.1% 7%  
315 0.2% 6%  
316 1.2% 6%  
317 1.4% 4% Last Result
318 0.2% 3%  
319 0.1% 3%  
320 0.1% 3%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 1.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0% 99.6%  
238 0% 99.6%  
239 0.6% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.0%  
241 0.6% 98.7%  
242 2% 98%  
243 0.7% 96%  
244 0.1% 95%  
245 0.1% 95%  
246 0.9% 95%  
247 0.7% 94%  
248 0.1% 93%  
249 1.0% 93%  
250 0.9% 92%  
251 1.1% 91%  
252 0.2% 90%  
253 0.9% 90%  
254 0% 89%  
255 0.4% 89%  
256 0.3% 89%  
257 0.9% 88%  
258 2% 88%  
259 5% 86%  
260 0.3% 80%  
261 0.5% 80%  
262 0.8% 80%  
263 0.5% 79%  
264 6% 78%  
265 3% 72%  
266 2% 69% Last Result
267 0.3% 67%  
268 0.6% 67%  
269 0.4% 66%  
270 0.4% 66%  
271 0.7% 65%  
272 0.4% 64%  
273 5% 64%  
274 2% 59%  
275 0.6% 58%  
276 1.2% 57%  
277 7% 56% Median
278 0.8% 48%  
279 0.7% 48%  
280 1.1% 47%  
281 4% 46%  
282 2% 42%  
283 1.3% 40%  
284 1.1% 39%  
285 0.4% 37%  
286 0.9% 37%  
287 4% 36%  
288 0.6% 32%  
289 5% 31%  
290 3% 26%  
291 1.4% 24%  
292 0.6% 22%  
293 0.7% 22%  
294 5% 21%  
295 0.8% 16%  
296 3% 16%  
297 1.0% 13%  
298 2% 12%  
299 2% 10%  
300 0.4% 8%  
301 0.8% 8%  
302 0.7% 7%  
303 2% 6%  
304 0.8% 4%  
305 0.3% 4%  
306 0.1% 3%  
307 0.7% 3%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.1% 1.5%  
312 0.1% 1.4%  
313 0.1% 1.3%  
314 0.4% 1.2%  
315 0.1% 0.8%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.2% 99.6%  
236 0.7% 99.4%  
237 0.5% 98.7%  
238 1.1% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 0.3% 95%  
241 0.1% 95%  
242 0.8% 95%  
243 0.7% 94%  
244 1.0% 94%  
245 0% 93%  
246 0.9% 92%  
247 0.8% 92%  
248 0.7% 91%  
249 0.4% 90%  
250 0.9% 90%  
251 0.3% 89%  
252 0.3% 89%  
253 0.2% 88%  
254 0.6% 88%  
255 4% 87%  
256 1.0% 83%  
257 3% 82%  
258 0.6% 80%  
259 2% 79%  
260 1.0% 77%  
261 5% 76%  
262 2% 71% Last Result
263 2% 69%  
264 0.4% 66%  
265 0.5% 66%  
266 0.5% 66%  
267 0.3% 65%  
268 2% 65%  
269 2% 63%  
270 2% 62%  
271 2% 59%  
272 5% 58%  
273 1.2% 53%  
274 4% 52% Median
275 1.1% 48%  
276 0.7% 47%  
277 0.7% 46%  
278 4% 45%  
279 2% 41%  
280 1.2% 39%  
281 1.4% 38%  
282 2% 37%  
283 0.7% 34%  
284 2% 34%  
285 5% 32%  
286 1.1% 27%  
287 2% 26%  
288 0.8% 23%  
289 1.5% 23%  
290 1.2% 21%  
291 5% 20%  
292 1.2% 15%  
293 3% 14%  
294 0.9% 11%  
295 0.8% 10%  
296 1.0% 9%  
297 1.4% 8%  
298 0.8% 7%  
299 0.6% 6%  
300 0.3% 5%  
301 2% 5%  
302 0.4% 4%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.4% 3%  
305 0.5% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.1% 1.4%  
309 0.1% 1.3%  
310 0.5% 1.3%  
311 0.1% 0.8%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.2% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations