Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 30–31 July 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.0% 36.5–39.5% 36.1–40.0% 35.7–40.3% 35.0–41.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.0% 36.5–39.5% 36.1–40.0% 35.7–40.3% 35.0–41.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–12.0%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.6–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.4% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.4% 2.4–4.7%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 282 259–306 255–312 252–318 245–326
Labour Party 262 275 253–296 246–301 238–306 236–317
Liberal Democrats 12 27 23–28 21–29 20–30 17–32
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 46 32–51 26–52 23–54 12–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 1–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.2% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.2% 99.3%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.7%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 1.1% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 2% 95%  
256 1.2% 93%  
257 0.8% 92%  
258 1.3% 92%  
259 1.3% 90%  
260 0.7% 89%  
261 1.5% 88%  
262 1.4% 87%  
263 1.2% 85%  
264 2% 84%  
265 2% 83%  
266 1.3% 81%  
267 2% 79%  
268 1.4% 77%  
269 2% 76%  
270 3% 74%  
271 1.4% 71%  
272 2% 70%  
273 3% 68%  
274 2% 65%  
275 2% 63%  
276 2% 61%  
277 1.1% 59%  
278 1.3% 58%  
279 2% 57%  
280 1.2% 54%  
281 2% 53%  
282 2% 51% Median
283 1.4% 50%  
284 3% 48%  
285 2% 45%  
286 2% 44%  
287 2% 42%  
288 3% 40%  
289 1.2% 37%  
290 3% 36%  
291 3% 33%  
292 1.2% 30%  
293 3% 28%  
294 2% 25%  
295 1.0% 24%  
296 0.6% 23%  
297 2% 22%  
298 0.6% 20%  
299 2% 19%  
300 0.8% 18%  
301 0.9% 17%  
302 1.3% 16%  
303 1.4% 15%  
304 2% 13%  
305 1.4% 12%  
306 0.8% 10%  
307 1.2% 9%  
308 0.7% 8%  
309 1.0% 7%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 0.5% 6%  
312 0.7% 5%  
313 0.4% 5%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.4% 3% Last Result
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0.2% 1.1%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.8% 99.5%  
237 1.0% 98.8%  
238 0.7% 98%  
239 0.7% 97%  
240 0.1% 96%  
241 0% 96%  
242 0.4% 96%  
243 0.2% 96%  
244 0.1% 96%  
245 0.6% 96%  
246 0.2% 95%  
247 0.4% 95%  
248 1.2% 94%  
249 0.4% 93%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 1.2% 92%  
252 0.3% 90%  
253 0.6% 90%  
254 1.3% 89%  
255 3% 88%  
256 1.5% 86%  
257 0.6% 84%  
258 5% 84%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 4% 75%  
262 1.1% 71% Last Result
263 2% 70%  
264 1.2% 68%  
265 0.1% 67%  
266 0.8% 67%  
267 0.7% 66%  
268 0.6% 65%  
269 2% 65%  
270 1.4% 63%  
271 2% 62%  
272 4% 60%  
273 2% 56%  
274 4% 54%  
275 2% 51% Median
276 2% 49%  
277 1.0% 47%  
278 2% 46%  
279 3% 44%  
280 4% 41%  
281 2% 37%  
282 3% 35%  
283 2% 32%  
284 3% 30%  
285 2% 27%  
286 0.6% 25%  
287 0.8% 24%  
288 2% 24%  
289 1.0% 21%  
290 0.9% 20%  
291 1.1% 20%  
292 1.3% 18%  
293 1.3% 17%  
294 1.2% 16%  
295 2% 15%  
296 3% 12%  
297 2% 10%  
298 1.0% 8%  
299 2% 7%  
300 0.3% 5%  
301 0.5% 5%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 0.2% 4%  
304 0.2% 4%  
305 0.5% 4%  
306 1.3% 4%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.3%  
311 0.3% 1.1%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.8%  
314 0% 0.8%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.3% 99.7%  
18 0.6% 99.4%  
19 0.9% 98.8%  
20 2% 98%  
21 3% 96%  
22 2% 93%  
23 6% 91%  
24 4% 85%  
25 9% 81%  
26 14% 73%  
27 26% 59% Median
28 24% 33%  
29 5% 9%  
30 2% 4%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 100% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.3% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.5%  
11 0% 99.5%  
12 0% 99.5%  
13 0.2% 99.5%  
14 0.1% 99.3%  
15 0.1% 99.3%  
16 0.1% 99.2%  
17 0.1% 99.1%  
18 0.1% 99.0%  
19 0.4% 98.9%  
20 0.1% 98%  
21 0.3% 98%  
22 0.3% 98%  
23 0.4% 98%  
24 0.5% 97%  
25 0.2% 97%  
26 2% 97%  
27 1.0% 95%  
28 1.1% 94%  
29 2% 92%  
30 0.1% 91%  
31 0.1% 90%  
32 1.0% 90%  
33 0.9% 89%  
34 2% 88%  
35 2% 87% Last Result
36 0.3% 85%  
37 0.3% 85%  
38 4% 85%  
39 5% 80%  
40 3% 75%  
41 3% 72%  
42 2% 69%  
43 0.6% 67%  
44 8% 66%  
45 3% 58%  
46 6% 55% Median
47 10% 49%  
48 7% 40%  
49 2% 33%  
50 15% 31%  
51 8% 15%  
52 4% 8%  
53 0.4% 3%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.1% 0.5%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 5% 98.6%  
2 15% 94%  
3 32% 79% Median
4 14% 47% Last Result
5 33% 33%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 348 88% 324–371 318–375 312–378 304–385
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 344 84% 320–368 314–372 308–375 299–382
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 329 56% 306–353 301–360 296–365 285–372
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 326 51% 303–349 298–356 293–362 283–368
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 322 43% 300–344 292–348 287–352 280–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 319 38% 296–341 288–345 284–348 276–355
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 308 17% 286–330 282–338 278–343 272–350
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 304 13% 281–327 273–332 268–337 262–347
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 7% 277–324 270–329 265–334 258–345
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 286 1.4% 262–310 258–316 255–322 248–331
Conservative Party 317 282 0.6% 259–306 255–312 252–318 245–326
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 278 0.1% 256–300 249–304 242–310 239–319
Labour Party 262 275 0.1% 253–296 246–301 238–306 236–317

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.7%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.2% 99.0%  
308 0.2% 98.9%  
309 0.3% 98.6%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.4% 97% Last Result
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.4% 97%  
316 0.4% 96%  
317 0.4% 96%  
318 0.7% 95%  
319 0.5% 95%  
320 0.6% 94%  
321 1.0% 94%  
322 0.7% 93%  
323 1.2% 92%  
324 0.7% 91%  
325 1.4% 90%  
326 2% 88% Majority
327 1.4% 87%  
328 1.3% 85%  
329 0.9% 84%  
330 0.8% 83%  
331 2% 82%  
332 0.6% 81%  
333 2% 80%  
334 0.6% 78%  
335 1.0% 77%  
336 2% 76%  
337 3% 75%  
338 1.2% 71%  
339 3% 70%  
340 3% 67%  
341 1.2% 64%  
342 3% 63%  
343 2% 60%  
344 2% 58%  
345 2% 56%  
346 3% 55%  
347 1.4% 52%  
348 2% 50%  
349 2% 49%  
350 1.1% 47%  
351 3% 46% Median
352 1.3% 43%  
353 1.0% 42%  
354 2% 41%  
355 2% 39%  
356 2% 37%  
357 3% 35%  
358 2% 32%  
359 1.4% 30%  
360 3% 29%  
361 2% 26%  
362 1.4% 24%  
363 2% 23%  
364 1.3% 21%  
365 2% 19%  
366 2% 17%  
367 1.2% 16%  
368 1.4% 15%  
369 1.5% 13%  
370 0.7% 12%  
371 1.3% 11%  
372 1.3% 10%  
373 0.8% 8%  
374 1.2% 8%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 1.1% 4%  
378 0.5% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 1.0%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.2% 99.4%  
302 0.2% 99.2%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0.3% 98.9%  
305 0.2% 98.6%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 0.4% 97% Last Result
310 0.5% 97%  
311 0.3% 97%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 0.5% 96%  
314 0.5% 95%  
315 0.7% 95%  
316 0.7% 94%  
317 0.7% 94%  
318 0.6% 93%  
319 2% 92%  
320 1.2% 91%  
321 0.8% 90%  
322 1.1% 89%  
323 0.9% 88%  
324 2% 87%  
325 0.8% 85%  
326 1.2% 84% Majority
327 1.1% 83%  
328 2% 81%  
329 0.7% 79%  
330 1.1% 79%  
331 2% 78%  
332 3% 76%  
333 1.2% 73%  
334 2% 72%  
335 0.7% 70%  
336 3% 69%  
337 2% 66%  
338 2% 64%  
339 1.3% 62%  
340 4% 61%  
341 1.5% 57%  
342 2% 55%  
343 1.2% 54%  
344 3% 52%  
345 2% 50%  
346 1.3% 48%  
347 2% 47%  
348 2% 45% Median
349 2% 43%  
350 2% 41%  
351 2% 40%  
352 1.1% 37%  
353 3% 36%  
354 2% 33%  
355 2% 31%  
356 2% 29%  
357 2% 27%  
358 2% 25%  
359 1.4% 23%  
360 2% 22%  
361 2% 20%  
362 1.2% 18%  
363 2% 17%  
364 1.3% 15%  
365 2% 14%  
366 1.1% 12%  
367 0.9% 11%  
368 1.1% 10%  
369 1.5% 9%  
370 1.1% 8%  
371 1.1% 7%  
372 1.1% 5%  
373 0.8% 4%  
374 0.9% 4%  
375 0.4% 3%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.4% 2%  
378 0.3% 1.4%  
379 0.2% 1.1%  
380 0.2% 0.9%  
381 0.1% 0.7%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0% 99.3%  
288 0% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.2% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 98.9%  
293 0.1% 98.8%  
294 0.2% 98.6%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.9% 97%  
298 0.3% 97%  
299 0.4% 96%  
300 0.5% 96%  
301 0.4% 95%  
302 0.5% 95%  
303 1.2% 94%  
304 0.7% 93%  
305 1.4% 93%  
306 1.2% 91%  
307 2% 90%  
308 2% 88%  
309 1.5% 87%  
310 1.3% 85%  
311 2% 84%  
312 1.4% 82%  
313 0.9% 81%  
314 0.9% 80%  
315 2% 79%  
316 1.4% 77%  
317 2% 76%  
318 1.4% 74%  
319 2% 72%  
320 3% 70%  
321 2% 68%  
322 2% 65%  
323 2% 63%  
324 3% 61%  
325 1.3% 57%  
326 2% 56% Majority
327 2% 54%  
328 2% 52%  
329 3% 51%  
330 2% 48%  
331 1.4% 46% Median
332 2% 45%  
333 2% 43%  
334 2% 41%  
335 2% 38%  
336 1.1% 37%  
337 1.4% 36%  
338 0.7% 34%  
339 1.2% 34%  
340 2% 32%  
341 2% 30%  
342 2% 28%  
343 2% 26%  
344 3% 23%  
345 2% 21%  
346 1.0% 19%  
347 2% 18%  
348 1.2% 16%  
349 2% 15%  
350 0.6% 14%  
351 1.1% 13%  
352 1.2% 12%  
353 1.3% 11%  
354 0.9% 9%  
355 0.6% 8%  
356 1.2% 8% Last Result
357 0.6% 7%  
358 0.3% 6%  
359 0.6% 6%  
360 0.4% 5%  
361 0.4% 5%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.7% 4%  
364 0.5% 4%  
365 0.6% 3%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.3%  
287 0.1% 99.2%  
288 0.2% 99.1%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.1% 98.7%  
291 0.2% 98.6%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.8% 98%  
294 0.5% 97%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.3% 96%  
297 0.6% 96%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 0.7% 95%  
300 1.3% 94%  
301 0.6% 93%  
302 2% 92%  
303 1.5% 90%  
304 2% 89%  
305 1.4% 87%  
306 1.2% 86%  
307 1.5% 84%  
308 1.3% 83%  
309 1.1% 82%  
310 2% 80%  
311 1.3% 79%  
312 1.3% 77%  
313 1.2% 76%  
314 2% 75%  
315 2% 73%  
316 2% 71%  
317 3% 69%  
318 1.5% 67%  
319 3% 65%  
320 4% 62%  
321 0.8% 58%  
322 2% 57%  
323 1.4% 55%  
324 2% 54%  
325 1.5% 52%  
326 3% 51% Majority
327 0.8% 48%  
328 3% 47% Median
329 4% 45%  
330 1.3% 41%  
331 3% 40%  
332 1.4% 37%  
333 1.2% 36%  
334 0.8% 34%  
335 1.2% 34%  
336 1.2% 32%  
337 3% 31%  
338 3% 29%  
339 1.4% 26%  
340 2% 24%  
341 4% 23%  
342 1.1% 19%  
343 1.2% 18%  
344 2% 17%  
345 1.1% 15%  
346 0.9% 14%  
347 0.2% 13%  
348 1.4% 13%  
349 2% 11%  
350 0.4% 9%  
351 1.0% 9%  
352 0.5% 8% Last Result
353 0.7% 8%  
354 0.9% 7%  
355 0.4% 6%  
356 0.5% 5%  
357 0.3% 5%  
358 0.4% 5%  
359 0.4% 4%  
360 0.7% 4%  
361 0.5% 3%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.4%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.3% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.3% 98.9%  
284 0.3% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.4% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.5% 97%  
291 0.6% 96%  
292 0.7% 95%  
293 0.5% 95%  
294 0.7% 94%  
295 0.4% 94%  
296 0.1% 93%  
297 0.5% 93%  
298 1.1% 93%  
299 1.3% 91%  
300 3% 90%  
301 0.7% 87% Last Result
302 0.6% 86%  
303 2% 85%  
304 1.0% 84%  
305 2% 83%  
306 2% 81%  
307 0.9% 79%  
308 0.8% 79%  
309 2% 78%  
310 3% 76%  
311 3% 73%  
312 1.3% 69%  
313 2% 68%  
314 2% 67%  
315 1.4% 64%  
316 3% 63%  
317 1.3% 60%  
318 2% 58%  
319 0.6% 56%  
320 3% 56%  
321 3% 53%  
322 1.4% 50%  
323 3% 49%  
324 2% 46% Median
325 1.2% 45%  
326 2% 43% Majority
327 1.4% 42%  
328 2% 40%  
329 2% 38%  
330 2% 36%  
331 2% 33%  
332 2% 31%  
333 2% 28%  
334 1.2% 26%  
335 1.0% 25%  
336 2% 24%  
337 2% 21%  
338 2% 19%  
339 2% 18%  
340 1.1% 16%  
341 1.1% 15%  
342 1.3% 14%  
343 2% 12%  
344 1.4% 11%  
345 0.7% 9%  
346 0.9% 9%  
347 1.0% 8%  
348 2% 7%  
349 1.0% 5%  
350 0.8% 4%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.6% 2%  
354 0.4% 1.5%  
355 0.2% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.9%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.6%  
277 0.2% 99.4%  
278 0.4% 99.2%  
279 0.3% 98.8%  
280 0.2% 98.6%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.4% 97%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.7% 96%  
288 0.7% 96%  
289 0.5% 95%  
290 0.5% 95%  
291 0.4% 94%  
292 0.4% 94%  
293 0.8% 93%  
294 0.8% 92%  
295 1.5% 92%  
296 2% 90%  
297 0.8% 88% Last Result
298 2% 87%  
299 0.8% 85%  
300 1.0% 85%  
301 3% 84%  
302 1.4% 81%  
303 0.6% 80%  
304 1.5% 79%  
305 3% 78%  
306 2% 75%  
307 0.8% 73%  
308 3% 72%  
309 2% 69%  
310 2% 67%  
311 2% 65%  
312 0.5% 63%  
313 3% 63%  
314 2% 60%  
315 2% 58%  
316 2% 56%  
317 2% 54%  
318 2% 53%  
319 2% 50%  
320 3% 48%  
321 0.8% 46% Median
322 2% 45%  
323 3% 43%  
324 1.1% 40%  
325 1.3% 39%  
326 5% 38% Majority
327 2% 33%  
328 1.4% 31%  
329 2% 30%  
330 1.4% 27%  
331 3% 26%  
332 0.8% 23%  
333 2% 22%  
334 2% 21%  
335 2% 18%  
336 1.1% 16%  
337 1.2% 15%  
338 1.5% 14%  
339 1.3% 13%  
340 1.1% 11%  
341 2% 10%  
342 1.0% 9%  
343 0.8% 8%  
344 1.3% 7%  
345 1.4% 6%  
346 1.2% 4%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.6% 2%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0.3% 1.2%  
352 0.1% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.2% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.2%  
275 0.2% 99.1%  
276 0.4% 98.9%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.8% 97%  
281 1.0% 96%  
282 2% 95%  
283 1.0% 93%  
284 0.9% 92%  
285 0.7% 91%  
286 1.4% 91%  
287 2% 89%  
288 1.4% 88%  
289 1.0% 86%  
290 1.1% 85%  
291 2% 84%  
292 2% 82%  
293 2% 81%  
294 2% 79%  
295 1.0% 76%  
296 1.2% 75%  
297 2% 74%  
298 2% 72%  
299 3% 69%  
300 2% 67%  
301 2% 64%  
302 2% 62%  
303 1.4% 60%  
304 2% 58%  
305 1.2% 57%  
306 2% 55%  
307 3% 54%  
308 1.4% 51%  
309 3% 50% Median
310 3% 47%  
311 0.6% 44%  
312 2% 44%  
313 1.3% 41%  
314 3% 40%  
315 1.4% 37%  
316 2% 36%  
317 2% 33%  
318 1.4% 32%  
319 3% 30%  
320 3% 27%  
321 2% 24%  
322 0.8% 22%  
323 0.9% 21%  
324 2% 21%  
325 2% 19%  
326 0.9% 17% Majority
327 2% 16%  
328 0.6% 15%  
329 0.7% 14% Last Result
330 3% 13%  
331 1.3% 10%  
332 1.1% 9%  
333 0.5% 7%  
334 0.1% 7%  
335 0.3% 7%  
336 0.7% 6%  
337 0.5% 6%  
338 0.7% 5%  
339 0.6% 5%  
340 0.5% 4%  
341 0.4% 3%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.4%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.3% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.6%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.5%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.4% 99.0%  
266 0.4% 98.6%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.5% 97%  
270 0.7% 97%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.4% 96%  
273 0.3% 95%  
274 0.5% 95%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.9% 94%  
277 0.7% 93%  
278 0.5% 92% Last Result
279 1.0% 92%  
280 0.4% 91%  
281 2% 91%  
282 1.4% 89%  
283 0.2% 87%  
284 0.9% 87%  
285 1.2% 86%  
286 2% 85%  
287 1.2% 83%  
288 1.2% 82%  
289 4% 81%  
290 2% 77%  
291 1.5% 76%  
292 3% 74%  
293 3% 71%  
294 1.2% 69%  
295 1.2% 67%  
296 0.8% 66%  
297 1.2% 66%  
298 1.4% 64%  
299 3% 63%  
300 1.3% 60%  
301 4% 59%  
302 2% 55%  
303 0.8% 53%  
304 3% 52%  
305 1.5% 49% Median
306 2% 48%  
307 1.4% 46%  
308 2% 45%  
309 0.8% 43%  
310 4% 42%  
311 3% 38%  
312 1.5% 35%  
313 3% 33%  
314 2% 31%  
315 2% 29%  
316 2% 27%  
317 1.2% 25%  
318 1.3% 24%  
319 1.3% 23%  
320 2% 21%  
321 1.1% 19%  
322 1.2% 18%  
323 1.5% 17%  
324 1.2% 16%  
325 1.4% 14%  
326 2% 13% Majority
327 1.5% 11%  
328 2% 10%  
329 0.6% 8%  
330 1.3% 7%  
331 0.7% 6%  
332 0.5% 5%  
333 0.6% 5%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.5% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.8% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.1% 1.4%  
341 0.2% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.1%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.2% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0.2% 99.4%  
260 0.2% 99.3%  
261 0.2% 99.1%  
262 0.5% 98.8%  
263 0.4% 98%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.6% 98%  
266 0.5% 97%  
267 0.7% 96%  
268 0.2% 96%  
269 0.4% 96%  
270 0.4% 95%  
271 0.6% 95%  
272 0.2% 94%  
273 0.6% 94%  
274 1.2% 93% Last Result
275 0.6% 92%  
276 0.9% 92%  
277 1.3% 91%  
278 1.1% 89%  
279 1.1% 88%  
280 0.6% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 1.2% 85%  
283 2% 84%  
284 1.0% 82%  
285 2% 81%  
286 3% 79%  
287 2% 76%  
288 2% 74%  
289 2% 72%  
290 2% 70%  
291 1.2% 68%  
292 0.6% 66%  
293 1.4% 66%  
294 1.1% 64%  
295 2% 63%  
296 2% 62%  
297 2% 59%  
298 2% 57%  
299 1.4% 55%  
300 2% 54%  
301 3% 52%  
302 2% 49% Median
303 2% 48%  
304 2% 46%  
305 1.3% 44%  
306 3% 43%  
307 2% 39%  
308 2% 37%  
309 2% 35%  
310 3% 32%  
311 2% 30%  
312 1.4% 28%  
313 2% 26%  
314 1.4% 24%  
315 2% 23%  
316 1.0% 21%  
317 1.0% 20%  
318 1.4% 19%  
319 2% 18%  
320 1.3% 16%  
321 1.5% 15%  
322 2% 13%  
323 2% 12%  
324 1.2% 10%  
325 1.4% 9%  
326 0.7% 7% Majority
327 1.2% 7%  
328 0.5% 6%  
329 0.4% 5%  
330 0.5% 5%  
331 0.4% 4%  
332 0.3% 4%  
333 0.9% 3%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.1% 1.4%  
338 0.1% 1.2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.8%  
342 0% 0.7%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.5%  
249 0.1% 99.4%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.2% 99.1%  
252 0.3% 98.9%  
253 0.4% 98.6%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.9% 97%  
257 0.8% 96%  
258 1.1% 96%  
259 1.1% 95%  
260 1.2% 93%  
261 1.5% 92%  
262 1.2% 91%  
263 0.8% 90%  
264 1.1% 89%  
265 2% 88%  
266 1.3% 86%  
267 2% 85%  
268 1.2% 83%  
269 2% 82%  
270 2% 80%  
271 1.4% 78%  
272 2% 77%  
273 2% 75%  
274 2% 73%  
275 2% 71%  
276 2% 69%  
277 3% 67%  
278 1.1% 64%  
279 2% 63%  
280 2% 60%  
281 2% 59%  
282 2% 57%  
283 2% 55%  
284 1.3% 53%  
285 2% 52% Median
286 3% 50%  
287 1.2% 48%  
288 2% 46%  
289 1.5% 45%  
290 4% 43%  
291 1.3% 39%  
292 2% 38%  
293 2% 36%  
294 3% 34%  
295 0.7% 31%  
296 2% 30%  
297 1.2% 28%  
298 3% 27%  
299 2% 24%  
300 1.1% 22%  
301 0.7% 21%  
302 2% 21%  
303 1.1% 19%  
304 1.2% 17%  
305 0.8% 16%  
306 2% 15%  
307 0.9% 13%  
308 1.1% 12%  
309 0.8% 11%  
310 1.2% 10%  
311 2% 9%  
312 0.6% 8%  
313 0.7% 7%  
314 0.7% 6%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.5% 5%  
317 0.6% 5%  
318 0.4% 4%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.5% 3%  
321 0.4% 3% Last Result
322 0.4% 3%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.4% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.2% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.2% 99.3%  
248 0.3% 99.0%  
249 0.5% 98.7%  
250 0.3% 98%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 1.1% 97%  
254 0.6% 96%  
255 2% 95%  
256 1.2% 93%  
257 0.8% 92%  
258 1.3% 92%  
259 1.3% 90%  
260 0.7% 89%  
261 1.5% 88%  
262 1.4% 87%  
263 1.2% 85%  
264 2% 84%  
265 2% 83%  
266 1.3% 81%  
267 2% 79%  
268 1.4% 77%  
269 2% 76%  
270 3% 74%  
271 1.4% 71%  
272 2% 70%  
273 3% 68%  
274 2% 65%  
275 2% 63%  
276 2% 61%  
277 1.1% 59%  
278 1.3% 58%  
279 2% 57%  
280 1.2% 54%  
281 2% 53%  
282 2% 51% Median
283 1.4% 50%  
284 3% 48%  
285 2% 45%  
286 2% 44%  
287 2% 42%  
288 3% 40%  
289 1.2% 37%  
290 3% 36%  
291 3% 33%  
292 1.2% 30%  
293 3% 28%  
294 2% 25%  
295 1.0% 24%  
296 0.6% 23%  
297 2% 22%  
298 0.6% 20%  
299 2% 19%  
300 0.8% 18%  
301 0.9% 17%  
302 1.3% 16%  
303 1.4% 15%  
304 2% 13%  
305 1.4% 12%  
306 0.8% 10%  
307 1.2% 9%  
308 0.7% 8%  
309 1.0% 7%  
310 0.6% 6%  
311 0.5% 6%  
312 0.7% 5%  
313 0.4% 5%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.4% 3% Last Result
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0.2% 1.1%  
324 0.2% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.7%  
237 0% 99.7%  
238 0% 99.7%  
239 0.8% 99.7%  
240 0.7% 98.9%  
241 0.5% 98%  
242 0.8% 98%  
243 0.5% 97%  
244 0.2% 96%  
245 0.1% 96%  
246 0.3% 96%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.4% 96%  
249 0.3% 95%  
250 1.1% 95%  
251 0.5% 94%  
252 0.3% 93%  
253 2% 93%  
254 0.6% 91%  
255 0.2% 90%  
256 0.1% 90%  
257 0.2% 90%  
258 2% 90%  
259 2% 87%  
260 0.7% 85%  
261 5% 85%  
262 0.4% 80%  
263 2% 80%  
264 3% 77%  
265 3% 74%  
266 2% 72% Last Result
267 0.8% 70%  
268 2% 69%  
269 0.6% 67%  
270 0.2% 66%  
271 0.8% 66%  
272 1.0% 65%  
273 1.5% 64%  
274 4% 63%  
275 1.4% 59%  
276 3% 57%  
277 3% 54%  
278 3% 52% Median
279 1.2% 48%  
280 1.1% 47%  
281 0.4% 46%  
282 3% 46%  
283 4% 42%  
284 3% 39%  
285 2% 36%  
286 2% 33%  
287 2% 32%  
288 3% 29%  
289 2% 27%  
290 0.2% 25%  
291 2% 25%  
292 2% 23%  
293 2% 22%  
294 1.1% 20%  
295 1.0% 19%  
296 1.3% 18%  
297 1.0% 17%  
298 2% 16%  
299 1.5% 13%  
300 3% 12%  
301 2% 9%  
302 0.9% 7%  
303 0.8% 6%  
304 0.7% 6%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 0.2% 4%  
307 0.1% 4%  
308 0.8% 4%  
309 0.8% 3%  
310 0.6% 3%  
311 0.4% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.4%  
314 0.3% 1.2%  
315 0% 0.9%  
316 0% 0.8%  
317 0% 0.8%  
318 0% 0.7%  
319 0.3% 0.7%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0.1% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.8% 99.5%  
237 1.0% 98.8%  
238 0.7% 98%  
239 0.7% 97%  
240 0.1% 96%  
241 0% 96%  
242 0.4% 96%  
243 0.2% 96%  
244 0.1% 96%  
245 0.6% 96%  
246 0.2% 95%  
247 0.4% 95%  
248 1.2% 94%  
249 0.4% 93%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 1.2% 92%  
252 0.3% 90%  
253 0.6% 90%  
254 1.3% 89%  
255 3% 88%  
256 1.5% 86%  
257 0.6% 84%  
258 5% 84%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 4% 75%  
262 1.1% 71% Last Result
263 2% 70%  
264 1.2% 68%  
265 0.1% 67%  
266 0.8% 67%  
267 0.7% 66%  
268 0.6% 65%  
269 2% 65%  
270 1.4% 63%  
271 2% 62%  
272 4% 60%  
273 2% 56%  
274 4% 54%  
275 2% 51% Median
276 2% 49%  
277 1.0% 47%  
278 2% 46%  
279 3% 44%  
280 4% 41%  
281 2% 37%  
282 3% 35%  
283 2% 32%  
284 3% 30%  
285 2% 27%  
286 0.6% 25%  
287 0.8% 24%  
288 2% 24%  
289 1.0% 21%  
290 0.9% 20%  
291 1.1% 20%  
292 1.3% 18%  
293 1.3% 17%  
294 1.2% 16%  
295 2% 15%  
296 3% 12%  
297 2% 10%  
298 1.0% 8%  
299 2% 7%  
300 0.3% 5%  
301 0.5% 5%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 0.2% 4%  
304 0.2% 4%  
305 0.5% 4%  
306 1.3% 4%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.1% 1.3%  
311 0.3% 1.1%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0% 0.8%  
314 0% 0.8%  
315 0% 0.7%  
316 0.1% 0.7%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations