Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 8–9 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.0% 37.5–40.5% 37.0–41.0% 36.7–41.4% 36.0–42.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 35.0% 33.5–36.5% 33.1–36.9% 32.7–37.3% 32.0–38.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 7.0% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.2–5.7%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 311 287–324 281–329 274–332 263–341
Labour Party 262 237 225–259 223–267 219–272 209–283
Liberal Democrats 12 26 20–28 19–30 18–31 15–32
UK Independence Party 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 52 48–56 47–56 45–57 41–57
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 3–5 2–6 1–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.5%  
264 0.1% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.2%  
267 0.3% 99.1%  
268 0.1% 98.8%  
269 0.1% 98.7%  
270 0.2% 98.6%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.4% 97%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.9% 97%  
279 0.2% 96%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0.6% 95%  
282 0.7% 95%  
283 0.4% 94%  
284 0.6% 94%  
285 1.1% 93%  
286 0.4% 92%  
287 2% 92%  
288 0.8% 90%  
289 0.8% 89%  
290 2% 88%  
291 0.9% 86%  
292 0.8% 86%  
293 1.0% 85%  
294 1.4% 84%  
295 0.7% 82%  
296 1.1% 82%  
297 1.2% 81%  
298 0.9% 79%  
299 3% 79%  
300 1.1% 75%  
301 2% 74%  
302 0.8% 72%  
303 2% 71%  
304 3% 69%  
305 0.9% 66%  
306 2% 65%  
307 3% 63%  
308 2% 60%  
309 4% 58%  
310 4% 55%  
311 6% 51% Median
312 5% 45%  
313 5% 39%  
314 2% 35%  
315 3% 33%  
316 3% 30%  
317 3% 26% Last Result
318 2% 23%  
319 2% 21%  
320 3% 19%  
321 2% 16%  
322 2% 14%  
323 2% 12%  
324 1.2% 11%  
325 1.2% 10%  
326 1.1% 8% Majority
327 0.9% 7%  
328 0.9% 6%  
329 1.2% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0.1% 99.6%  
209 0.1% 99.5%  
210 0% 99.5%  
211 0.1% 99.4%  
212 0.1% 99.3%  
213 0.2% 99.2%  
214 0.3% 99.0%  
215 0.2% 98.8%  
216 0.3% 98.6%  
217 0.4% 98%  
218 0.4% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.3% 97%  
221 0.5% 97%  
222 0.8% 96%  
223 2% 96%  
224 2% 94%  
225 2% 91%  
226 1.2% 89%  
227 1.2% 88%  
228 2% 86%  
229 2% 84%  
230 1.3% 82%  
231 3% 81%  
232 3% 78%  
233 2% 75%  
234 3% 73%  
235 6% 70%  
236 7% 65%  
237 9% 57% Median
238 7% 48%  
239 1.0% 41%  
240 0.7% 40%  
241 1.4% 39%  
242 3% 38%  
243 1.3% 35%  
244 1.1% 34%  
245 2% 33%  
246 4% 30%  
247 3% 26%  
248 1.1% 24%  
249 2% 23%  
250 0.9% 21%  
251 0.3% 20%  
252 0.3% 20%  
253 1.1% 19%  
254 3% 18%  
255 0.8% 15%  
256 0.6% 15%  
257 1.4% 14%  
258 2% 13%  
259 1.0% 11%  
260 1.3% 10%  
261 1.2% 9%  
262 0.3% 7% Last Result
263 0.9% 7%  
264 0.9% 6%  
265 0.2% 5%  
266 0.2% 5%  
267 0.1% 5%  
268 0.2% 5%  
269 1.2% 5%  
270 0.7% 3%  
271 0.1% 3%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.1% 2%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.4%  
279 0.1% 1.1%  
280 0.1% 1.0%  
281 0.2% 1.0%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 0.3% 99.6%  
16 0.6% 99.3%  
17 1.2% 98.8%  
18 2% 98%  
19 2% 96%  
20 4% 93%  
21 3% 89%  
22 6% 86%  
23 4% 80%  
24 10% 76%  
25 14% 66%  
26 16% 52% Median
27 15% 36%  
28 11% 21%  
29 4% 9%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.0% 1.4%  
33 0.2% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 0.1% 98.7%  
44 0.1% 98.5%  
45 2% 98%  
46 0% 97%  
47 3% 97%  
48 4% 94%  
49 1.2% 90%  
50 15% 88%  
51 17% 73%  
52 21% 57% Median
53 2% 36%  
54 21% 33%  
55 1.4% 13%  
56 8% 11%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.3% 99.7%  
2 3% 99.5%  
3 30% 96%  
4 9% 67% Last Result
5 54% 57% Median
6 1.2% 3%  
7 0.4% 2%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 367 98.7% 344–380 337–384 332–387 320–397
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 363 98% 340–376 333–380 327–383 316–392
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 336 76% 313–349 307–352 300–356 289–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 319 33% 305–342 301–349 297–356 288–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 315 26% 301–338 296–344 293–352 284–363
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 315 15% 291–329 285–333 278–337 267–346
Conservative Party 317 311 8% 287–324 281–329 274–332 263–341
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 294 4% 281–316 277–323 273–330 264–341
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 289 2% 276–312 273–320 269–325 259–337
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 267 0% 254–290 250–297 247–303 237–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 263 0% 250–286 245–293 242–298 232–310
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 241 0% 229–264 227–270 223–276 213–287
Labour Party 262 237 0% 225–259 223–267 219–272 209–283

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.6%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.1% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.1% 99.2%  
324 0.2% 99.0%  
325 0.2% 98.9%  
326 0.2% 98.7% Majority
327 0.2% 98%  
328 0.2% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.1% 98%  
331 0.2% 98%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.6% 97%  
334 0.6% 97%  
335 0.2% 96%  
336 0.3% 96%  
337 0.5% 95%  
338 0.4% 95%  
339 0.4% 94%  
340 0.4% 94%  
341 1.0% 94%  
342 2% 93%  
343 0.4% 91%  
344 1.1% 91%  
345 0.8% 89%  
346 0.7% 89%  
347 0.9% 88%  
348 1.1% 87%  
349 1.4% 86%  
350 2% 85%  
351 0.9% 83%  
352 1.3% 82%  
353 0.9% 81%  
354 2% 80%  
355 0.9% 78%  
356 3% 77% Last Result
357 0.9% 74%  
358 3% 74%  
359 2% 71%  
360 2% 68%  
361 1.4% 66%  
362 1.0% 65%  
363 2% 64%  
364 3% 62%  
365 4% 59%  
366 3% 54%  
367 5% 51%  
368 6% 46% Median
369 5% 40%  
370 3% 35%  
371 2% 32%  
372 5% 31%  
373 3% 26%  
374 2% 23%  
375 2% 21%  
376 2% 18%  
377 3% 17%  
378 2% 14%  
379 2% 12%  
380 0.9% 10%  
381 2% 9%  
382 0.9% 7%  
383 0.6% 6%  
384 1.0% 6%  
385 1.1% 5%  
386 0.5% 4%  
387 0.8% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.2% 1.5%  
392 0.1% 1.3%  
393 0.3% 1.1%  
394 0.1% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0% 0.4%  
399 0.1% 0.4%  
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.2% 99.4%  
318 0.1% 99.2%  
319 0.1% 99.1%  
320 0.1% 99.0%  
321 0.2% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.7%  
323 0.3% 98%  
324 0.2% 98%  
325 0.1% 98%  
326 0.1% 98% Majority
327 0.3% 98%  
328 0.4% 97%  
329 0.6% 97%  
330 0.4% 96%  
331 0.3% 96%  
332 0.5% 96%  
333 0.3% 95%  
334 0.5% 95%  
335 0.5% 94%  
336 0.8% 94%  
337 0.3% 93%  
338 1.2% 93%  
339 1.4% 92%  
340 0.7% 90%  
341 1.2% 90%  
342 0.6% 88%  
343 1.0% 88%  
344 1.1% 87%  
345 2% 86%  
346 2% 84%  
347 0.7% 82%  
348 0.7% 82%  
349 2% 81%  
350 1.1% 79%  
351 2% 78%  
352 1.2% 77% Last Result
353 4% 75%  
354 0.6% 72%  
355 3% 71%  
356 2% 68%  
357 1.1% 66%  
358 2% 65%  
359 1.0% 63%  
360 3% 62%  
361 5% 59%  
362 3% 53%  
363 6% 50% Median
364 7% 45%  
365 4% 38%  
366 2% 34%  
367 4% 32%  
368 3% 28%  
369 3% 25%  
370 2% 22%  
371 2% 20%  
372 4% 19%  
373 1.5% 15%  
374 2% 13%  
375 1.3% 12%  
376 2% 10%  
377 1.0% 8%  
378 0.9% 7%  
379 0.8% 6%  
380 0.9% 5%  
381 0.6% 4%  
382 1.0% 4%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.3% 1.4%  
388 0.2% 1.1%  
389 0.1% 0.9%  
390 0.1% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.1% 99.1%  
294 0.2% 99.0%  
295 0.3% 98.8%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.2% 96%  
305 1.0% 96%  
306 0.3% 95%  
307 0.4% 95%  
308 0.6% 95%  
309 0.4% 94%  
310 0.8% 94%  
311 0.6% 93%  
312 2% 92%  
313 0.4% 90%  
314 1.1% 90%  
315 1.4% 89%  
316 0.6% 88%  
317 1.1% 87%  
318 1.4% 86%  
319 1.0% 84%  
320 2% 83%  
321 0.7% 81%  
322 2% 80%  
323 0.4% 79%  
324 0.8% 78%  
325 1.1% 78%  
326 2% 76% Majority
327 3% 74%  
328 3% 72%  
329 2% 69% Last Result
330 2% 67%  
331 2% 65%  
332 2% 63%  
333 2% 61%  
334 3% 59%  
335 4% 56%  
336 4% 51%  
337 6% 48% Median
338 7% 42%  
339 5% 35%  
340 2% 30%  
341 2% 28%  
342 3% 26%  
343 3% 23%  
344 3% 20%  
345 2% 17%  
346 1.3% 15%  
347 1.4% 14%  
348 2% 12%  
349 3% 11%  
350 0.9% 8%  
351 1.2% 7%  
352 1.4% 6%  
353 0.4% 5%  
354 0.9% 4%  
355 0.5% 3%  
356 0.7% 3%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.4%  
361 0.1% 1.1%  
362 0.1% 1.1%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.1% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.3% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 98.9%  
293 0.3% 98.8%  
294 0.3% 98.5%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.7% 97%  
299 0.6% 97%  
300 0.8% 96%  
301 1.5% 95%  
302 0.5% 94%  
303 1.3% 93%  
304 0.8% 92%  
305 1.4% 91%  
306 2% 90%  
307 0.9% 88%  
308 2% 87%  
309 3% 85%  
310 2% 83%  
311 3% 81%  
312 2% 78%  
313 3% 76% Last Result
314 4% 73%  
315 2% 69%  
316 2% 66%  
317 7% 65%  
318 5% 58%  
319 6% 53%  
320 4% 48% Median
321 3% 44%  
322 2% 41%  
323 2% 39%  
324 2% 37%  
325 2% 35%  
326 3% 33% Majority
327 1.2% 30%  
328 0.8% 29%  
329 3% 28%  
330 2% 26%  
331 3% 24%  
332 2% 21%  
333 0.4% 20%  
334 1.1% 19%  
335 0.8% 18%  
336 1.4% 17%  
337 0.7% 16%  
338 0.8% 15%  
339 1.1% 14%  
340 2% 13%  
341 0.8% 11%  
342 0.8% 11%  
343 1.4% 10%  
344 0.4% 8%  
345 1.2% 8%  
346 0.3% 7%  
347 0.4% 6%  
348 0.8% 6%  
349 0.5% 5%  
350 0.2% 5%  
351 0.3% 4%  
352 0.8% 4%  
353 0.3% 3%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.2% 3%  
356 0.2% 3%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.1% 1.4%  
362 0.1% 1.3%  
363 0.2% 1.2%  
364 0.1% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.3% 99.4%  
286 0.2% 99.2%  
287 0.2% 99.0%  
288 0.2% 98.8%  
289 0.2% 98.5%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 0.4% 97%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 1.4% 96%  
297 0.7% 94%  
298 0.8% 94%  
299 0.6% 93%  
300 2% 92%  
301 2% 91%  
302 0.9% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 3% 85%  
306 2% 82%  
307 2% 79%  
308 4% 78%  
309 3% 74% Last Result
310 3% 71%  
311 2% 68%  
312 3% 66%  
313 2% 63%  
314 7% 61%  
315 8% 54% Median
316 3% 46%  
317 2% 42%  
318 2% 40%  
319 2% 38%  
320 2% 37%  
321 2% 34%  
322 1.1% 32%  
323 2% 31%  
324 2% 29%  
325 1.1% 27%  
326 3% 26% Majority
327 1.4% 22%  
328 1.4% 21%  
329 1.1% 20%  
330 0.7% 19%  
331 1.5% 18%  
332 0.7% 16%  
333 0.6% 16%  
334 1.0% 15%  
335 2% 14%  
336 1.2% 13%  
337 1.0% 11%  
338 0.4% 10%  
339 1.2% 10%  
340 0.9% 9%  
341 0.3% 8%  
342 1.2% 8%  
343 0.8% 6%  
344 0.6% 6%  
345 0.3% 5%  
346 0.3% 5%  
347 0.7% 4%  
348 0.3% 4%  
349 0.2% 3%  
350 0.3% 3%  
351 0.3% 3%  
352 0.3% 3%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.1% 1.3%  
358 0.1% 1.3%  
359 0.1% 1.1%  
360 0.3% 1.0%  
361 0.1% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.4%  
270 0.3% 99.3%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 98.8%  
273 0.1% 98.7%  
274 0.2% 98.6%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.3% 97%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.7% 96%  
284 0.4% 96%  
285 0.2% 95%  
286 0.6% 95%  
287 0.9% 94%  
288 1.1% 93%  
289 0.4% 92%  
290 0.8% 92%  
291 1.2% 91%  
292 0.4% 90%  
293 1.0% 90%  
294 1.4% 89%  
295 2% 87%  
296 0.9% 86%  
297 0.6% 85%  
298 0.8% 84%  
299 1.2% 83%  
300 0.7% 82%  
301 1.3% 81%  
302 2% 80%  
303 0.8% 78%  
304 3% 77%  
305 0.8% 74%  
306 2% 73%  
307 2% 71%  
308 1.2% 68%  
309 2% 67%  
310 2% 65%  
311 2% 63%  
312 2% 61%  
313 2% 59%  
314 5% 57%  
315 8% 52%  
316 5% 44% Median
317 3% 39%  
318 3% 36%  
319 2% 34%  
320 3% 31%  
321 2% 28% Last Result
322 4% 26%  
323 2% 21%  
324 1.5% 19%  
325 2% 17%  
326 1.5% 15% Majority
327 2% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 1.4% 10%  
330 1.3% 9%  
331 0.8% 7%  
332 0.5% 7%  
333 1.1% 6%  
334 1.4% 5%  
335 0.5% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.5%  
342 0.3% 1.3%  
343 0.1% 1.0%  
344 0.1% 0.9%  
345 0.2% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.5%  
264 0.1% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.2%  
267 0.3% 99.1%  
268 0.1% 98.8%  
269 0.1% 98.7%  
270 0.2% 98.6%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.2% 97%  
276 0.4% 97%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.9% 97%  
279 0.2% 96%  
280 0.2% 96%  
281 0.6% 95%  
282 0.7% 95%  
283 0.4% 94%  
284 0.6% 94%  
285 1.1% 93%  
286 0.4% 92%  
287 2% 92%  
288 0.8% 90%  
289 0.8% 89%  
290 2% 88%  
291 0.9% 86%  
292 0.8% 86%  
293 1.0% 85%  
294 1.4% 84%  
295 0.7% 82%  
296 1.1% 82%  
297 1.2% 81%  
298 0.9% 79%  
299 3% 79%  
300 1.1% 75%  
301 2% 74%  
302 0.8% 72%  
303 2% 71%  
304 3% 69%  
305 0.9% 66%  
306 2% 65%  
307 3% 63%  
308 2% 60%  
309 4% 58%  
310 4% 55%  
311 6% 51% Median
312 5% 45%  
313 5% 39%  
314 2% 35%  
315 3% 33%  
316 3% 30%  
317 3% 26% Last Result
318 2% 23%  
319 2% 21%  
320 3% 19%  
321 2% 16%  
322 2% 14%  
323 2% 12%  
324 1.2% 11%  
325 1.2% 10%  
326 1.1% 8% Majority
327 0.9% 7%  
328 0.9% 6%  
329 1.2% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 1.3%  
338 0.1% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.2% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.0%  
269 0.2% 98.9%  
270 0.4% 98.7%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.6% 98%  
274 0.7% 97%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 0.6% 96%  
277 1.1% 96%  
278 1.4% 94%  
279 0.7% 93%  
280 2% 92%  
281 2% 91%  
282 1.5% 88%  
283 1.3% 87%  
284 1.5% 86%  
285 2% 84%  
286 3% 82%  
287 4% 80%  
288 3% 76%  
289 2% 73%  
290 2% 71%  
291 7% 69%  
292 7% 62%  
293 3% 55%  
294 4% 52% Median
295 4% 47%  
296 3% 44%  
297 2% 40%  
298 2% 39%  
299 2% 37%  
300 1.5% 35%  
301 3% 33% Last Result
302 2% 30%  
303 2% 28%  
304 2% 25%  
305 0.6% 23%  
306 0.7% 22%  
307 1.4% 22%  
308 0.8% 20%  
309 1.1% 19%  
310 2% 18%  
311 1.0% 17%  
312 2% 16%  
313 0.9% 14%  
314 0.7% 13%  
315 1.3% 12%  
316 1.0% 11%  
317 0.6% 10%  
318 2% 9%  
319 0.5% 8%  
320 0.8% 7%  
321 0.3% 6%  
322 0.6% 6%  
323 0.4% 5%  
324 0.4% 5%  
325 0.9% 5%  
326 0.2% 4% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.4% 3%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.5%  
336 0.2% 1.2%  
337 0.1% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.5%  
261 0.1% 99.4%  
262 0.2% 99.2%  
263 0.1% 99.0%  
264 0.1% 98.9%  
265 0.4% 98.9%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.5% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.7% 97%  
271 0.7% 96%  
272 0.6% 96%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 1.1% 94%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 91%  
277 2% 90%  
278 2% 88%  
279 1.2% 86%  
280 0.8% 85%  
281 2% 84%  
282 5% 82%  
283 2% 77%  
284 2% 75%  
285 3% 73%  
286 3% 70%  
287 6% 67%  
288 5% 61%  
289 7% 57% Median
290 4% 50%  
291 3% 46%  
292 3% 43%  
293 2% 40%  
294 3% 38%  
295 1.2% 36%  
296 2% 35%  
297 2% 32% Last Result
298 3% 30%  
299 3% 27%  
300 1.4% 24%  
301 0.8% 23%  
302 1.3% 22%  
303 0.6% 21%  
304 1.0% 20%  
305 2% 19%  
306 2% 17%  
307 1.0% 16%  
308 1.0% 15%  
309 1.0% 14%  
310 0.8% 13%  
311 2% 12%  
312 0.5% 11%  
313 0.7% 10%  
314 1.0% 9%  
315 2% 8%  
316 0.3% 7%  
317 0.8% 6%  
318 0.3% 5%  
319 0.2% 5%  
320 0.9% 5%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.2% 4%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.4% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.1% 1.4%  
332 0.3% 1.2%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.8%  
335 0% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.2% 99.4%  
240 0% 99.2%  
241 0.2% 99.2%  
242 0.3% 99.0%  
243 0.3% 98.7%  
244 0.1% 98%  
245 0.5% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.6% 98%  
248 0.8% 97%  
249 0.6% 96%  
250 1.1% 95%  
251 0.7% 94%  
252 1.3% 94%  
253 1.3% 92%  
254 2% 91%  
255 2% 89%  
256 1.4% 88%  
257 2% 86%  
258 4% 84%  
259 0.6% 80%  
260 3% 80%  
261 3% 77%  
262 4% 74%  
263 3% 71%  
264 3% 67%  
265 5% 64%  
266 5% 59%  
267 5% 54%  
268 4% 49% Median
269 4% 44%  
270 3% 41%  
271 1.0% 38%  
272 2% 37%  
273 1.2% 35%  
274 3% 34%  
275 1.3% 30%  
276 1.3% 29%  
277 3% 28%  
278 2% 24% Last Result
279 0.9% 22%  
280 1.0% 22%  
281 2% 21%  
282 0.6% 19%  
283 1.0% 18%  
284 2% 17%  
285 2% 16%  
286 0.6% 14%  
287 1.1% 13%  
288 0.6% 12%  
289 1.3% 12%  
290 0.5% 10%  
291 2% 10%  
292 1.1% 8%  
293 0.3% 7%  
294 0.7% 7%  
295 0.5% 6%  
296 0.4% 6%  
297 0.4% 5%  
298 0.5% 5%  
299 0.3% 4%  
300 0.3% 4%  
301 0.7% 4%  
302 0.4% 3%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0.1% 2%  
306 0.2% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.2% 1.5%  
309 0.2% 1.3%  
310 0.1% 1.1%  
311 0.1% 1.0%  
312 0% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.1% 99.5%  
234 0.1% 99.4%  
235 0% 99.3%  
236 0.2% 99.2%  
237 0.2% 99.0%  
238 0.3% 98.8%  
239 0.2% 98.6%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.8% 97%  
244 0.8% 97%  
245 1.0% 96%  
246 0.9% 95%  
247 1.0% 94%  
248 0.8% 93%  
249 2% 92%  
250 2% 90%  
251 2% 89%  
252 2% 87%  
253 3% 85%  
254 2% 82%  
255 2% 81%  
256 2% 78%  
257 3% 76%  
258 4% 73%  
259 2% 69%  
260 3% 66%  
261 5% 64%  
262 7% 58%  
263 4% 51% Median
264 3% 48%  
265 5% 45%  
266 2% 40%  
267 2% 38%  
268 1.2% 36%  
269 2% 35%  
270 1.2% 32%  
271 2% 31%  
272 3% 29%  
273 2% 26%  
274 2% 24% Last Result
275 1.0% 22%  
276 1.3% 21%  
277 0.8% 20%  
278 1.4% 19%  
279 1.0% 18%  
280 2% 17%  
281 0.9% 15%  
282 1.2% 14%  
283 0.8% 13%  
284 0.8% 12%  
285 0.7% 11%  
286 1.2% 10%  
287 0.4% 9%  
288 2% 9%  
289 1.0% 7%  
290 0.3% 6%  
291 0.4% 6%  
292 0.5% 6%  
293 0.5% 5%  
294 0.2% 4%  
295 0.2% 4%  
296 0.7% 4%  
297 0.5% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.2% 2%  
304 0.2% 2%  
305 0.2% 1.3%  
306 0.2% 1.1%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0.1% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0% 99.9%  
209 0% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.8%  
212 0.1% 99.7%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0% 99.5%  
215 0% 99.4%  
216 0% 99.4%  
217 0.3% 99.4%  
218 0.1% 99.1%  
219 0.3% 99.0%  
220 0.3% 98.7%  
221 0.3% 98%  
222 0.4% 98%  
223 0.3% 98%  
224 0.2% 97%  
225 0.3% 97%  
226 0.9% 97%  
227 2% 96%  
228 2% 94%  
229 2% 92%  
230 2% 90%  
231 1.2% 88%  
232 1.4% 87%  
233 2% 85%  
234 3% 83%  
235 2% 81%  
236 2% 78%  
237 2% 76%  
238 2% 74%  
239 6% 72%  
240 9% 66%  
241 9% 58%  
242 6% 49% Median
243 4% 43%  
244 0.3% 40%  
245 0.9% 39%  
246 2% 38%  
247 2% 36%  
248 1.0% 34%  
249 2% 33%  
250 4% 31%  
251 3% 27%  
252 0.8% 24%  
253 2% 23%  
254 2% 22%  
255 0.2% 20%  
256 0.2% 20%  
257 1.1% 20%  
258 2% 19%  
259 2% 17%  
260 0.1% 14%  
261 0.8% 14%  
262 2% 13%  
263 0.9% 11%  
264 2% 10%  
265 0.7% 8%  
266 0.2% 7% Last Result
267 0.5% 7%  
268 1.0% 7%  
269 0.6% 6%  
270 0.1% 5%  
271 0.1% 5%  
272 0.2% 5%  
273 0.7% 5%  
274 1.2% 4%  
275 0.2% 3%  
276 0.2% 3%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.2% 2%  
279 0.2% 2%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.2% 2%  
282 0.3% 1.4%  
283 0.1% 1.2%  
284 0% 1.1%  
285 0.1% 1.0%  
286 0.2% 0.9%  
287 0.2% 0.7%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.3%  
291 0% 0.3%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.1% 99.7%  
208 0.1% 99.6%  
209 0.1% 99.5%  
210 0% 99.5%  
211 0.1% 99.4%  
212 0.1% 99.3%  
213 0.2% 99.2%  
214 0.3% 99.0%  
215 0.2% 98.8%  
216 0.3% 98.6%  
217 0.4% 98%  
218 0.4% 98%  
219 0.3% 98%  
220 0.3% 97%  
221 0.5% 97%  
222 0.8% 96%  
223 2% 96%  
224 2% 94%  
225 2% 91%  
226 1.2% 89%  
227 1.2% 88%  
228 2% 86%  
229 2% 84%  
230 1.3% 82%  
231 3% 81%  
232 3% 78%  
233 2% 75%  
234 3% 73%  
235 6% 70%  
236 7% 65%  
237 9% 57% Median
238 7% 48%  
239 1.0% 41%  
240 0.7% 40%  
241 1.4% 39%  
242 3% 38%  
243 1.3% 35%  
244 1.1% 34%  
245 2% 33%  
246 4% 30%  
247 3% 26%  
248 1.1% 24%  
249 2% 23%  
250 0.9% 21%  
251 0.3% 20%  
252 0.3% 20%  
253 1.1% 19%  
254 3% 18%  
255 0.8% 15%  
256 0.6% 15%  
257 1.4% 14%  
258 2% 13%  
259 1.0% 11%  
260 1.3% 10%  
261 1.2% 9%  
262 0.3% 7% Last Result
263 0.9% 7%  
264 0.9% 6%  
265 0.2% 5%  
266 0.2% 5%  
267 0.1% 5%  
268 0.2% 5%  
269 1.2% 5%  
270 0.7% 3%  
271 0.1% 3%  
272 0.3% 3%  
273 0.2% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.1% 2%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.4%  
279 0.1% 1.1%  
280 0.1% 1.0%  
281 0.2% 1.0%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.1% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations