Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 6–10 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.2% 37.6–40.8% 37.1–41.3% 36.7–41.7% 35.9–42.5%
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.2% 35.6–38.8% 35.2–39.3% 34.8–39.7% 34.0–40.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.1–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.2–12.2%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Green Party 1.6% 5.0% 4.3–5.8% 4.1–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.7–6.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 295 270–318 262–322 255–327 243–337
Conservative Party 317 267 251–293 248–301 242–308 236–321
Liberal Democrats 12 28 25–30 23–30 21–31 19–34
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 2 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Scottish National Party 35 39 18–50 9–51 7–51 2–54
Plaid Cymru 4 1 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0% 99.1%  
248 0.1% 99.1%  
249 0.3% 99.0%  
250 0.3% 98.7%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.5% 97%  
258 0.2% 97%  
259 0.5% 96%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.4% 96%  
262 0.5% 95% Last Result
263 0.5% 95%  
264 1.3% 94%  
265 0.4% 93%  
266 0.3% 92%  
267 0.6% 92%  
268 0.8% 91%  
269 0.1% 91%  
270 0.7% 91%  
271 0.5% 90%  
272 1.1% 89%  
273 0.8% 88%  
274 1.1% 87%  
275 2% 86%  
276 0.7% 84%  
277 2% 83%  
278 0.7% 82%  
279 0.3% 81%  
280 0.8% 81%  
281 3% 80%  
282 0.7% 77%  
283 0.5% 77%  
284 2% 76%  
285 2% 74%  
286 2% 72%  
287 2% 71%  
288 1.3% 68%  
289 1.1% 67%  
290 3% 66%  
291 3% 63%  
292 2% 60%  
293 3% 58%  
294 2% 55%  
295 3% 53% Median
296 3% 50%  
297 3% 46%  
298 2% 43%  
299 2% 41%  
300 1.4% 39%  
301 5% 38%  
302 2% 33%  
303 1.0% 31%  
304 3% 30%  
305 2% 26%  
306 1.2% 24%  
307 2% 23%  
308 0.7% 21%  
309 0.7% 20%  
310 2% 20%  
311 2% 18%  
312 2% 16%  
313 0.3% 14%  
314 0.6% 14%  
315 0.9% 13%  
316 2% 12%  
317 0.4% 10%  
318 0.2% 10%  
319 3% 10%  
320 1.0% 7%  
321 0.8% 6%  
322 1.1% 6%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.4% 4%  
326 0.5% 3% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.1% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0.3% 0.8%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.7% 99.0%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 0.8% 97%  
244 0.3% 96%  
245 0.4% 96%  
246 0.2% 96%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 1.5% 95%  
249 1.0% 94%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 3% 92%  
252 3% 89%  
253 1.1% 86%  
254 2% 85%  
255 1.3% 83%  
256 1.0% 82%  
257 2% 81%  
258 2% 79%  
259 5% 77%  
260 3% 71%  
261 2% 69%  
262 2% 67%  
263 2% 65%  
264 6% 63%  
265 3% 57%  
266 3% 54%  
267 3% 51% Median
268 3% 48%  
269 2% 45%  
270 1.4% 44%  
271 2% 42%  
272 2% 41%  
273 1.2% 38%  
274 1.2% 37%  
275 0.8% 36%  
276 3% 35%  
277 2% 32%  
278 3% 31%  
279 1.1% 27%  
280 1.4% 26%  
281 1.4% 25%  
282 0.8% 24%  
283 2% 23%  
284 1.4% 21%  
285 0.8% 20%  
286 0.6% 19%  
287 2% 18%  
288 2% 16%  
289 0.7% 14%  
290 0.7% 13%  
291 0.4% 12%  
292 1.4% 12%  
293 1.0% 11%  
294 0.4% 9%  
295 0.7% 9%  
296 0.7% 8%  
297 0.2% 8%  
298 0.4% 8%  
299 0.9% 7%  
300 0.8% 6%  
301 0.7% 6%  
302 0.2% 5%  
303 0.9% 5%  
304 0.5% 4%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.3% 3%  
307 0.1% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.1% 1.3%  
315 0.1% 1.3%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
318 0% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.9%  
18 0.2% 99.7%  
19 0.4% 99.5%  
20 0.9% 99.2%  
21 2% 98%  
22 0.8% 96%  
23 2% 96%  
24 4% 94%  
25 6% 90%  
26 11% 85%  
27 10% 74%  
28 39% 64% Median
29 15% 25%  
30 5% 10%  
31 3% 5%  
32 0.3% 2%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.9%  
35 0.2% 0.4%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100% Last Result
1 99.7% 99.7% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100% Last Result
2 77% 92% Median
3 12% 15%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.7%  
3 0.3% 99.4%  
4 0.3% 99.2%  
5 0.1% 98.9%  
6 0.7% 98.8%  
7 1.1% 98%  
8 0.6% 97%  
9 2% 96%  
10 0.8% 95%  
11 0.2% 94%  
12 0.5% 94%  
13 0.8% 93%  
14 0.3% 92%  
15 0.3% 92%  
16 0.7% 92%  
17 0.4% 91%  
18 2% 91%  
19 0.5% 89%  
20 0.3% 88%  
21 0.7% 88%  
22 2% 87%  
23 0.9% 86%  
24 3% 85%  
25 0.7% 82%  
26 3% 81%  
27 0.8% 78%  
28 7% 77%  
29 3% 70%  
30 0.8% 67%  
31 0.6% 66%  
32 1.3% 65%  
33 2% 64%  
34 2% 62%  
35 1.3% 61% Last Result
36 4% 59%  
37 0.6% 55%  
38 4% 55%  
39 4% 51% Median
40 2% 47%  
41 2% 46%  
42 0.8% 44%  
43 2% 43%  
44 7% 41%  
45 3% 34%  
46 3% 31%  
47 9% 28%  
48 4% 19%  
49 2% 15%  
50 8% 14%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 1.0%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100%  
1 20% 54% Median
2 20% 34%  
3 11% 14%  
4 2% 3% Last Result
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 362 96% 336–378 327–381 322–387 308–393
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 361 96% 334–376 326–381 321–386 306–392
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 335 69% 309–349 300–353 294–358 282–365
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 333 65% 309–348 300–353 293–357 280–363
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 324 46% 297–347 290–352 281–356 270–366
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 323 42% 296–345 287–350 281–355 269–365
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 306 18% 283–333 279–342 274–348 264–360
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 305 17% 282–332 277–340 273–348 263–360
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 294 6% 279–320 276–328 270–334 264–347
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 297 4% 272–319 263–323 255–328 245–338
Labour Party 262 295 3% 270–318 262–322 255–327 243–337
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 268 0.3% 252–295 248–303 243–309 236–323
Conservative Party 317 267 0.2% 251–293 248–301 242–308 236–321

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.4%  
310 0.1% 99.2%  
311 0.1% 99.1%  
312 0.1% 99.1%  
313 0.1% 98.9% Last Result
314 0.1% 98.9%  
315 0.1% 98.7%  
316 0.2% 98.7%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 0.1% 98%  
319 0.4% 98%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.2% 97%  
324 0.4% 97%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 0.9% 96% Majority
327 0.5% 95%  
328 0.4% 95%  
329 0.9% 94%  
330 0.7% 93%  
331 0.3% 93%  
332 0.2% 92%  
333 0.6% 92%  
334 0.7% 92%  
335 0.7% 91%  
336 1.4% 90%  
337 0.9% 89%  
338 0.4% 88%  
339 0.6% 88%  
340 0.8% 87%  
341 2% 86%  
342 2% 84%  
343 1.3% 82%  
344 0.5% 81%  
345 1.4% 80%  
346 2% 79%  
347 0.9% 77%  
348 1.4% 76%  
349 2% 75%  
350 0.6% 73%  
351 3% 72%  
352 2% 69%  
353 3% 68%  
354 0.8% 65%  
355 2% 64%  
356 1.2% 62%  
357 2% 61%  
358 0.9% 59%  
359 2% 58%  
360 2% 57%  
361 4% 55%  
362 3% 51%  
363 3% 49% Median
364 3% 45%  
365 5% 42%  
366 2% 37%  
367 2% 35%  
368 2% 33%  
369 3% 31%  
370 5% 28%  
371 2% 23%  
372 2% 21%  
373 1.2% 19%  
374 2% 18%  
375 2% 16%  
376 1.3% 15%  
377 3% 13%  
378 3% 11%  
379 1.1% 8%  
380 0.7% 7%  
381 2% 6%  
382 0.3% 5%  
383 0.3% 4%  
384 0.3% 4%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.6% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.8% 2%  
391 0.1% 0.8%  
392 0.1% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.5%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.1% 99.2% Last Result
310 0% 99.1%  
311 0.1% 99.0%  
312 0.1% 99.0%  
313 0.1% 98.8%  
314 0.1% 98.7%  
315 0.2% 98.6%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 0.3% 97%  
323 0.3% 97%  
324 0.4% 97%  
325 0.3% 96%  
326 1.1% 96% Majority
327 0.9% 95%  
328 0.4% 94%  
329 0.6% 94%  
330 0.6% 93%  
331 0.5% 92%  
332 0.8% 92%  
333 0.3% 91%  
334 1.2% 91%  
335 0.5% 90%  
336 1.1% 89%  
337 0.5% 88%  
338 0.6% 88%  
339 0.6% 87%  
340 0.8% 86%  
341 3% 86%  
342 3% 83%  
343 0.5% 80%  
344 2% 79%  
345 0.7% 78%  
346 1.5% 77%  
347 0.5% 76%  
348 1.0% 75%  
349 2% 74%  
350 1.0% 72%  
351 3% 71%  
352 4% 68%  
353 1.0% 64%  
354 2% 63%  
355 1.3% 62%  
356 0.8% 60%  
357 1.4% 60%  
358 0.8% 58%  
359 3% 57%  
360 3% 55%  
361 4% 52%  
362 3% 48% Median
363 2% 45%  
364 2% 42%  
365 5% 40%  
366 2% 35%  
367 3% 33%  
368 4% 30%  
369 2% 26%  
370 3% 25%  
371 3% 21%  
372 2% 19%  
373 0.7% 17%  
374 1.3% 16%  
375 3% 15%  
376 2% 12%  
377 2% 9%  
378 0.9% 8%  
379 0.9% 7%  
380 0.3% 6%  
381 2% 6%  
382 0.2% 4%  
383 0.4% 4%  
384 0.4% 4%  
385 0.6% 3%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.5% 2%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.7% 2%  
390 0.2% 0.9%  
391 0.1% 0.7%  
392 0.1% 0.6%  
393 0.1% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0.1% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0% 99.2%  
285 0% 99.2%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.0%  
288 0.2% 99.0%  
289 0.1% 98.8%  
290 0.1% 98.7%  
291 0.3% 98.7%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.1% 97%  
296 0.1% 97%  
297 0.2% 97%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 0.6% 96%  
300 0.7% 96%  
301 0.5% 95% Last Result
302 0.3% 94%  
303 0.1% 94%  
304 0.2% 94%  
305 1.0% 94%  
306 0.4% 93%  
307 0.8% 92%  
308 0.7% 92%  
309 2% 91%  
310 0.3% 89%  
311 1.0% 89%  
312 0.9% 88%  
313 2% 87%  
314 2% 85%  
315 1.2% 83%  
316 0.2% 81%  
317 2% 81%  
318 2% 79%  
319 0.9% 78%  
320 1.2% 77%  
321 0.5% 76%  
322 0.5% 75%  
323 0.8% 75%  
324 0.9% 74%  
325 4% 73%  
326 5% 69% Majority
327 1.2% 64%  
328 1.1% 63%  
329 2% 62%  
330 1.0% 60%  
331 1.2% 59%  
332 4% 58%  
333 2% 54%  
334 2% 52%  
335 3% 50% Median
336 3% 47%  
337 6% 44%  
338 1.1% 38%  
339 2% 37%  
340 2% 35%  
341 6% 33%  
342 3% 27%  
343 1.5% 24%  
344 2% 22%  
345 2% 20%  
346 2% 18%  
347 2% 16%  
348 2% 14%  
349 3% 13%  
350 2% 10%  
351 0.6% 7%  
352 1.1% 7%  
353 1.1% 6%  
354 0.4% 5%  
355 0.3% 4%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 0.4% 4%  
358 0.8% 3%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.7% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.2%  
284 0% 99.2%  
285 0.1% 99.1%  
286 0.2% 99.1%  
287 0.1% 98.8%  
288 0.1% 98.7%  
289 0.2% 98.6%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 0.1% 97%  
295 0.2% 97%  
296 0.2% 97%  
297 0.3% 97% Last Result
298 1.2% 97%  
299 0.3% 95%  
300 0.5% 95%  
301 0.4% 95%  
302 0.3% 94%  
303 1.1% 94%  
304 0.4% 93%  
305 0.6% 92%  
306 0.6% 92%  
307 0.2% 91%  
308 0.9% 91%  
309 1.2% 90%  
310 0.9% 89%  
311 0.8% 88%  
312 0.3% 87%  
313 3% 87%  
314 3% 84%  
315 0.9% 81%  
316 0.9% 80%  
317 0.6% 79%  
318 2% 79%  
319 1.0% 77%  
320 1.4% 76%  
321 0.6% 75%  
322 0.6% 74%  
323 0.7% 73%  
324 1.0% 73%  
325 7% 72%  
326 2% 65% Majority
327 0.6% 62%  
328 0.3% 62%  
329 2% 61%  
330 2% 59%  
331 3% 58%  
332 5% 55%  
333 2% 50%  
334 3% 48% Median
335 1.3% 45%  
336 2% 44%  
337 6% 42%  
338 2% 36%  
339 4% 34%  
340 2% 30%  
341 3% 28%  
342 4% 25%  
343 3% 21%  
344 0.9% 19%  
345 2% 18%  
346 2% 16%  
347 3% 14%  
348 2% 11%  
349 2% 9%  
350 0.6% 8%  
351 0.8% 7%  
352 0.8% 6%  
353 1.2% 5%  
354 0.3% 4%  
355 0.3% 4%  
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.8% 3%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.9% 2%  
361 0.2% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.2% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.2%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.2% 99.0%  
277 0.2% 98.8%  
278 0.1% 98.6% Last Result
279 0.5% 98.6%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.5% 98%  
282 0.1% 97%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.1% 97%  
285 0.7% 97%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.3% 96%  
288 0.3% 95%  
289 0.2% 95%  
290 0.9% 95%  
291 0.5% 94%  
292 0.6% 94%  
293 0.5% 93%  
294 0.5% 93%  
295 1.3% 92%  
296 0.4% 91%  
297 0.4% 90%  
298 0.4% 90%  
299 0.8% 90%  
300 0.3% 89%  
301 0.8% 88%  
302 1.5% 88%  
303 3% 86%  
304 0.5% 83%  
305 0.6% 83%  
306 0.9% 82%  
307 3% 81%  
308 0.9% 79%  
309 0.8% 78%  
310 0.5% 77%  
311 0.8% 77%  
312 1.2% 76%  
313 1.0% 75%  
314 2% 74%  
315 1.1% 72%  
316 4% 71%  
317 2% 67%  
318 3% 65%  
319 2% 63%  
320 1.1% 60%  
321 3% 59%  
322 1.1% 56%  
323 4% 55%  
324 4% 51% Median
325 1.2% 47%  
326 2% 46% Majority
327 2% 43%  
328 2% 41%  
329 5% 39%  
330 0.5% 35%  
331 2% 34%  
332 3% 33%  
333 3% 30%  
334 2% 27%  
335 2% 25%  
336 3% 23%  
337 0.7% 21%  
338 1.2% 20%  
339 1.0% 19%  
340 2% 18%  
341 1.0% 16%  
342 1.2% 15%  
343 0.7% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 0.7% 11%  
346 0.5% 11%  
347 3% 10%  
348 0.6% 8%  
349 0.5% 7%  
350 0.3% 6%  
351 0.7% 6%  
352 0.8% 5%  
353 0.4% 5%  
354 1.1% 4%  
355 0.4% 3%  
356 0.7% 3%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.1% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.3%  
363 0.1% 1.1%  
364 0.1% 1.0%  
365 0.3% 0.9%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.4%  
272 0.1% 99.3%  
273 0.2% 99.2%  
274 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0.3% 98.9%  
277 0.3% 98.6%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.6% 97%  
284 0.1% 97%  
285 0.7% 96%  
286 0.2% 96%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.8% 95%  
289 0.1% 94%  
290 0.2% 94%  
291 0.7% 94%  
292 0.8% 93%  
293 0.6% 92%  
294 0.4% 92%  
295 1.0% 91%  
296 0.7% 90%  
297 0.3% 90%  
298 0.5% 89%  
299 0.6% 89%  
300 0.8% 88%  
301 0.8% 87%  
302 1.4% 87%  
303 3% 85%  
304 0.6% 82%  
305 0.4% 82%  
306 0.6% 81%  
307 3% 81%  
308 0.9% 78%  
309 0.6% 77%  
310 1.0% 76%  
311 1.0% 75%  
312 0.8% 74%  
313 2% 73%  
314 1.2% 71%  
315 2% 70%  
316 3% 68%  
317 2% 65%  
318 2% 63%  
319 3% 61%  
320 2% 58%  
321 3% 56%  
322 2% 54%  
323 5% 52% Median
324 3% 47%  
325 2% 44%  
326 0.9% 42% Majority
327 2% 41%  
328 1.3% 39%  
329 5% 38%  
330 2% 33%  
331 1.2% 31%  
332 2% 30%  
333 3% 28%  
334 3% 25%  
335 1.4% 22%  
336 0.9% 21%  
337 1.3% 20%  
338 1.2% 18%  
339 0.7% 17%  
340 1.1% 16%  
341 1.4% 15%  
342 0.8% 14%  
343 2% 13%  
344 0.6% 11%  
345 0.9% 11%  
346 0.3% 10%  
347 2% 9%  
348 0.3% 7%  
349 1.1% 7%  
350 0.6% 6%  
351 0.3% 5%  
352 0.6% 5%  
353 0.4% 4%  
354 1.0% 4%  
355 0.4% 3%  
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0% 1.3%  
361 0.2% 1.3%  
362 0.1% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.1% 0.8%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0.3% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.1% 99.1%  
268 0.2% 98.9%  
269 0.1% 98.7%  
270 0.2% 98.6%  
271 0.1% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.6% 98%  
275 0.7% 97%  
276 0.4% 96%  
277 0.6% 96%  
278 0.2% 95%  
279 0.6% 95%  
280 1.1% 94%  
281 0.3% 93%  
282 3% 93%  
283 0.5% 90%  
284 0.4% 90%  
285 0.4% 89%  
286 2% 89%  
287 0.9% 87%  
288 1.5% 86%  
289 1.2% 85%  
290 0.7% 83%  
291 2% 83%  
292 0.9% 81%  
293 2% 80%  
294 0.8% 79%  
295 3% 78%  
296 4% 75%  
297 1.3% 71%  
298 1.1% 70%  
299 2% 69%  
300 5% 67%  
301 0.9% 62%  
302 2% 61%  
303 2% 59%  
304 3% 57%  
305 2% 55%  
306 5% 53%  
307 2% 47% Median
308 3% 46%  
309 1.2% 43%  
310 3% 42%  
311 2% 39%  
312 2% 37%  
313 2% 35%  
314 2% 32%  
315 2% 30%  
316 2% 28%  
317 1.1% 27%  
318 0.9% 26%  
319 1.1% 25%  
320 0.6% 24%  
321 1.2% 23%  
322 2% 22%  
323 0.7% 19%  
324 0.5% 19%  
325 0.3% 18%  
326 3% 18% Majority
327 2% 15%  
328 0.6% 13%  
329 1.1% 13%  
330 0.3% 12%  
331 0.8% 11%  
332 0.4% 11%  
333 1.0% 10%  
334 0.3% 9%  
335 0.8% 9%  
336 0.8% 8%  
337 0.7% 7%  
338 0.4% 7%  
339 0.3% 6%  
340 0.1% 6%  
341 0.8% 6%  
342 0.5% 5%  
343 0.2% 5%  
344 0.8% 4%  
345 0.1% 4%  
346 0.6% 3%  
347 0.1% 3%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.4% 2%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.1% 1.2%  
355 0.2% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.5%  
264 0.2% 99.3%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.2% 98.9%  
268 0.2% 98.7%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.3% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.8% 98%  
274 0.1% 97%  
275 1.2% 97%  
276 0.3% 96%  
277 0.8% 95%  
278 0.7% 95%  
279 0.4% 94%  
280 0.5% 93%  
281 1.0% 93%  
282 3% 92%  
283 0.3% 89%  
284 0.5% 89%  
285 2% 89%  
286 0.7% 87%  
287 1.2% 86%  
288 1.2% 85%  
289 2% 84%  
290 1.5% 82%  
291 0.6% 81%  
292 0.9% 80%  
293 3% 79%  
294 1.5% 76%  
295 2% 75%  
296 3% 73%  
297 3% 70%  
298 1.5% 67%  
299 0.6% 66%  
300 5% 65%  
301 2% 60%  
302 2% 58%  
303 2% 56%  
304 1.0% 53%  
305 3% 52%  
306 5% 49% Median
307 0.9% 44%  
308 3% 44%  
309 0.7% 41%  
310 3% 40%  
311 3% 37%  
312 2% 34%  
313 3% 33%  
314 1.0% 30%  
315 3% 29%  
316 0.9% 26%  
317 1.2% 25%  
318 0.7% 24%  
319 0.7% 23%  
320 0.5% 23%  
321 1.0% 22%  
322 3% 21%  
323 0.4% 18%  
324 0.7% 18%  
325 0.6% 17%  
326 3% 17% Majority
327 2% 14%  
328 0.6% 12%  
329 0.4% 12%  
330 0.5% 11%  
331 0.7% 11%  
332 0.5% 10%  
333 0.8% 10%  
334 0.6% 9%  
335 0.9% 8%  
336 0.7% 7%  
337 0.5% 7%  
338 0.2% 6%  
339 0.9% 6%  
340 0.2% 5%  
341 0.2% 5%  
342 0.4% 5%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 0.7% 4%  
345 0.1% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.2% 3%  
348 0.4% 3%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.5% 2%  
351 0.1% 1.4%  
352 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
353 0.2% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 1.0%  
355 0.1% 0.9%  
356 0.1% 0.8%  
357 0.1% 0.7%  
358 0% 0.6%  
359 0% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.2% 99.1%  
268 0.7% 98.9%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.6% 97%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 0.3% 96%  
275 0.3% 96%  
276 1.2% 95%  
277 1.3% 94%  
278 0.8% 93%  
279 2% 92%  
280 3% 90%  
281 2% 87%  
282 2% 86%  
283 2% 83%  
284 1.3% 81%  
285 2% 80%  
286 1.3% 78%  
287 4% 76%  
288 5% 72%  
289 2% 67%  
290 3% 65%  
291 0.8% 63%  
292 6% 62%  
293 2% 56%  
294 3% 53%  
295 2% 50% Median
296 1.1% 47%  
297 4% 46%  
298 0.5% 42%  
299 2% 42%  
300 2% 40%  
301 0.9% 37%  
302 1.2% 37%  
303 4% 35%  
304 4% 31%  
305 1.1% 27%  
306 0.8% 26%  
307 1.0% 25%  
308 0.6% 24%  
309 1.0% 24%  
310 0.6% 23%  
311 2% 22%  
312 1.2% 20%  
313 1.3% 19%  
314 0.7% 18%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 15%  
317 1.0% 13%  
318 0.9% 12%  
319 0.8% 11%  
320 1.0% 10%  
321 0.7% 9%  
322 0.4% 8%  
323 0.8% 8%  
324 1.0% 7%  
325 0.1% 6%  
326 0.3% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 6%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.5% 5% Last Result
330 0.5% 4%  
331 0.8% 4%  
332 0.3% 3%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.2% 3%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.4%  
340 0.1% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.2% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.6%  
244 0% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.3%  
248 0% 99.2%  
249 0.2% 99.1%  
250 0.1% 98.9%  
251 0.2% 98.8%  
252 0.1% 98.6%  
253 0.8% 98%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0% 97%  
257 0.4% 97%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.3% 96%  
262 0.6% 96%  
263 0.4% 95%  
264 0.5% 95%  
265 0.4% 94%  
266 1.0% 94% Last Result
267 1.0% 93%  
268 0.7% 92%  
269 0.2% 91%  
270 0.4% 91%  
271 0.4% 90%  
272 0.6% 90%  
273 0.7% 89%  
274 2% 89%  
275 3% 87%  
276 0.3% 84%  
277 0.8% 84%  
278 0.6% 83%  
279 1.3% 83%  
280 0.3% 81%  
281 3% 81%  
282 1.3% 78%  
283 0.2% 77%  
284 1.0% 77%  
285 2% 76%  
286 0.8% 74%  
287 2% 73%  
288 3% 72%  
289 2% 68%  
290 3% 67%  
291 1.4% 64%  
292 0.5% 62%  
293 3% 62%  
294 3% 59%  
295 3% 55%  
296 0.9% 52% Median
297 3% 51%  
298 4% 48%  
299 1.2% 44%  
300 2% 42%  
301 5% 40%  
302 2% 35%  
303 0.8% 34%  
304 5% 33%  
305 1.4% 28%  
306 1.3% 27%  
307 3% 26%  
308 1.2% 22%  
309 0.8% 21%  
310 0.5% 20%  
311 2% 20%  
312 1.2% 18%  
313 2% 17%  
314 0.3% 14%  
315 0.9% 14%  
316 0.6% 13%  
317 1.5% 12%  
318 0.4% 11%  
319 3% 11%  
320 0.8% 8%  
321 0.2% 7%  
322 1.3% 7%  
323 1.2% 5%  
324 0.2% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.6% 4% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.7% 3%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.1% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.1% 1.4%  
334 0.2% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.1%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0% 99.5%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0% 99.1%  
248 0.1% 99.1%  
249 0.3% 99.0%  
250 0.3% 98.7%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.1% 98%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0% 98%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.2% 97%  
257 0.5% 97%  
258 0.2% 97%  
259 0.5% 96%  
260 0.2% 96%  
261 0.4% 96%  
262 0.5% 95% Last Result
263 0.5% 95%  
264 1.3% 94%  
265 0.4% 93%  
266 0.3% 92%  
267 0.6% 92%  
268 0.8% 91%  
269 0.1% 91%  
270 0.7% 91%  
271 0.5% 90%  
272 1.1% 89%  
273 0.8% 88%  
274 1.1% 87%  
275 2% 86%  
276 0.7% 84%  
277 2% 83%  
278 0.7% 82%  
279 0.3% 81%  
280 0.8% 81%  
281 3% 80%  
282 0.7% 77%  
283 0.5% 77%  
284 2% 76%  
285 2% 74%  
286 2% 72%  
287 2% 71%  
288 1.3% 68%  
289 1.1% 67%  
290 3% 66%  
291 3% 63%  
292 2% 60%  
293 3% 58%  
294 2% 55%  
295 3% 53% Median
296 3% 50%  
297 3% 46%  
298 2% 43%  
299 2% 41%  
300 1.4% 39%  
301 5% 38%  
302 2% 33%  
303 1.0% 31%  
304 3% 30%  
305 2% 26%  
306 1.2% 24%  
307 2% 23%  
308 0.7% 21%  
309 0.7% 20%  
310 2% 20%  
311 2% 18%  
312 2% 16%  
313 0.3% 14%  
314 0.6% 14%  
315 0.9% 13%  
316 2% 12%  
317 0.4% 10%  
318 0.2% 10%  
319 3% 10%  
320 1.0% 7%  
321 0.8% 6%  
322 1.1% 6%  
323 0.5% 4%  
324 0.3% 4%  
325 0.4% 4%  
326 0.5% 3% Majority
327 0.4% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.1% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0.3% 0.8%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.2% 99.6%  
237 0% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.4%  
239 0.1% 99.1%  
240 0.8% 99.0%  
241 0.2% 98%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 0.5% 97%  
245 0.4% 97%  
246 0.4% 96%  
247 0.3% 96%  
248 2% 96%  
249 0.6% 94%  
250 0.6% 93%  
251 1.0% 93%  
252 2% 92%  
253 2% 90%  
254 3% 88%  
255 0.9% 85%  
256 1.3% 84%  
257 2% 83%  
258 2% 81%  
259 3% 79%  
260 2% 75%  
261 4% 73%  
262 2% 69%  
263 3% 68%  
264 5% 65%  
265 2% 59%  
266 2% 57%  
267 4% 55%  
268 4% 52% Median
269 3% 48%  
270 2% 46%  
271 2% 43%  
272 2% 42%  
273 0.8% 40%  
274 1.2% 39%  
275 2% 38%  
276 0.7% 36%  
277 4% 36%  
278 4% 32%  
279 1.5% 28%  
280 1.2% 27%  
281 0.8% 26%  
282 0.6% 25%  
283 2% 24%  
284 0.6% 23%  
285 2% 22%  
286 0.9% 20%  
287 2% 20%  
288 3% 17%  
289 1.1% 15%  
290 0.7% 14%  
291 0.5% 13%  
292 1.1% 13%  
293 0.8% 11%  
294 0.4% 11%  
295 1.1% 10%  
296 0.3% 9%  
297 0.5% 9%  
298 0.9% 8%  
299 0.7% 7%  
300 0.4% 7%  
301 0.4% 6%  
302 0.9% 6%  
303 0.9% 5%  
304 0.3% 4%  
305 0.5% 4%  
306 0.3% 3%  
307 0.2% 3%  
308 0.3% 3%  
309 0.3% 3%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.1% 1.4%  
316 0.2% 1.3%  
317 0.1% 1.2%  
318 0.1% 1.0%  
319 0% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.8% Last Result
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.7% 99.0%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.4% 98%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 0.8% 97%  
244 0.3% 96%  
245 0.4% 96%  
246 0.2% 96%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 1.5% 95%  
249 1.0% 94%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 3% 92%  
252 3% 89%  
253 1.1% 86%  
254 2% 85%  
255 1.3% 83%  
256 1.0% 82%  
257 2% 81%  
258 2% 79%  
259 5% 77%  
260 3% 71%  
261 2% 69%  
262 2% 67%  
263 2% 65%  
264 6% 63%  
265 3% 57%  
266 3% 54%  
267 3% 51% Median
268 3% 48%  
269 2% 45%  
270 1.4% 44%  
271 2% 42%  
272 2% 41%  
273 1.2% 38%  
274 1.2% 37%  
275 0.8% 36%  
276 3% 35%  
277 2% 32%  
278 3% 31%  
279 1.1% 27%  
280 1.4% 26%  
281 1.4% 25%  
282 0.8% 24%  
283 2% 23%  
284 1.4% 21%  
285 0.8% 20%  
286 0.6% 19%  
287 2% 18%  
288 2% 16%  
289 0.7% 14%  
290 0.7% 13%  
291 0.4% 12%  
292 1.4% 12%  
293 1.0% 11%  
294 0.4% 9%  
295 0.7% 9%  
296 0.7% 8%  
297 0.2% 8%  
298 0.4% 8%  
299 0.9% 7%  
300 0.8% 6%  
301 0.7% 6%  
302 0.2% 5%  
303 0.9% 5%  
304 0.5% 4%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.3% 3%  
307 0.1% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.1% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.1% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.1% 1.3%  
315 0.1% 1.3%  
316 0.1% 1.1%  
317 0.1% 1.1% Last Result
318 0% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations