Opinion Poll by Deltapoll for The Sun on Sunday, 14–16 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 39.6% 38.2–41.1% 37.8–41.5% 37.4–41.8% 36.7–42.5%
Conservative Party 42.4% 36.7% 35.3–38.1% 34.9–38.5% 34.5–38.9% 33.9–39.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.9% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.2% 6.4–9.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.9% 5.3–6.7% 5.1–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Green Party 1.6% 4.9% 4.3–5.6% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 296 281–322 276–329 271–332 257–338
Conservative Party 317 271 253–288 247–294 244–299 239–310
Liberal Democrats 12 18 15–24 14–25 13–25 10–27
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 2 2–3 1–3 1–4 1–4
Scottish National Party 35 38 18–50 12–51 7–53 4–55
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–7 4–8 3–8

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.4%  
260 0% 99.3%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0% 99.2% Last Result
263 0.1% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.3% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.5%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 0.7% 97%  
274 0.5% 96%  
275 0.2% 96%  
276 0.8% 95%  
277 0.8% 95%  
278 0.8% 94%  
279 1.0% 93%  
280 1.3% 92%  
281 1.3% 91%  
282 1.3% 89%  
283 3% 88%  
284 2% 85%  
285 3% 84%  
286 4% 81%  
287 3% 77%  
288 2% 74%  
289 2% 71%  
290 2% 69%  
291 3% 67%  
292 3% 64%  
293 1.4% 61%  
294 3% 59%  
295 3% 56%  
296 7% 53% Median
297 2% 47%  
298 1.2% 45%  
299 1.0% 44%  
300 1.2% 43%  
301 2% 42%  
302 1.3% 40%  
303 2% 38%  
304 1.2% 36%  
305 2% 35%  
306 2% 33%  
307 2% 32%  
308 2% 30%  
309 2% 28%  
310 2% 26%  
311 0.9% 24%  
312 0.7% 23%  
313 2% 22%  
314 0.9% 21%  
315 1.3% 20%  
316 1.0% 18%  
317 0.9% 17%  
318 1.0% 16%  
319 2% 15%  
320 1.3% 14%  
321 1.1% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 1.2% 9%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 0.6% 7%  
326 0.4% 7% Majority
327 0.9% 6%  
328 0.4% 5%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.2% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.4%  
241 0.2% 99.1%  
242 0.6% 98.8%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 1.2% 96%  
248 0.7% 95%  
249 0.9% 94%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 0.9% 92%  
252 0.9% 91%  
253 2% 90%  
254 2% 88%  
255 2% 86%  
256 2% 84%  
257 2% 83%  
258 1.5% 81%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 2% 75%  
262 1.5% 73%  
263 1.2% 72%  
264 3% 70%  
265 2% 68%  
266 2% 65%  
267 3% 63%  
268 4% 59%  
269 3% 56%  
270 2% 53%  
271 3% 51% Median
272 2% 48%  
273 2% 46%  
274 1.2% 44%  
275 4% 43%  
276 2% 39%  
277 5% 37%  
278 2% 32%  
279 3% 30%  
280 0.8% 27%  
281 3% 26%  
282 3% 23%  
283 3% 20%  
284 1.5% 17%  
285 2% 16%  
286 2% 14%  
287 2% 13%  
288 1.4% 11%  
289 0.6% 10%  
290 0.4% 9%  
291 0.4% 9%  
292 1.2% 8%  
293 1.4% 7%  
294 0.8% 6%  
295 0.5% 5%  
296 0.9% 4%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.3% 3%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.1% 1.4%  
304 0.1% 1.3%  
305 0.2% 1.1%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3% Last Result
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.3% 99.8%  
11 0.4% 99.5%  
12 1.4% 99.1% Last Result
13 1.0% 98%  
14 5% 97%  
15 12% 92%  
16 16% 80%  
17 6% 64%  
18 12% 58% Median
19 16% 46%  
20 9% 31%  
21 2% 22%  
22 7% 19%  
23 2% 13%  
24 6% 11%  
25 3% 5%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 83% 95% Median
3 9% 12%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.3% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.6%  
5 0.1% 99.3%  
6 0.5% 99.2%  
7 2% 98.7%  
8 0.4% 97%  
9 0.9% 97%  
10 0.3% 96%  
11 0.3% 96%  
12 1.3% 95%  
13 0.7% 94%  
14 0.6% 93%  
15 0.3% 93%  
16 0.4% 92%  
17 0.6% 92%  
18 1.3% 91%  
19 1.0% 90%  
20 2% 89%  
21 0.4% 87%  
22 2% 86%  
23 0.8% 84%  
24 2% 83%  
25 1.3% 81%  
26 4% 80%  
27 2% 76%  
28 5% 74%  
29 7% 70%  
30 1.3% 63%  
31 0.4% 61%  
32 1.2% 61%  
33 2% 60%  
34 0.6% 58%  
35 2% 57% Last Result
36 1.3% 55%  
37 1.5% 54%  
38 3% 52% Median
39 2% 49%  
40 3% 47%  
41 2% 43%  
42 4% 42%  
43 4% 38%  
44 3% 34%  
45 2% 31%  
46 6% 29%  
47 3% 23%  
48 5% 20%  
49 3% 15%  
50 3% 12%  
51 5% 9%  
52 1.3% 4%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.8%  
4 11% 99.3% Last Result
5 80% 89% Median
6 3% 9%  
7 0.8% 5%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 358 98.7% 341–376 335–381 330–385 319–390
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 353 97% 336–371 329–376 324–380 313–385
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 340 86% 322–357 317–361 312–364 301–369
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 335 74% 317–352 312–356 307–359 296–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 319 38% 303–346 299–353 295–356 278–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 314 31% 298–341 294–348 289–351 273–359
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 315 20% 288–331 281–335 278–340 270–356
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 301 13% 286–327 281–334 277–336 262–343
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 310 10% 283–326 276–330 273–335 265–351
Labour Party 262 296 7% 281–322 276–329 271–332 257–338
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 289 0.7% 271–307 267–312 265–317 259–328
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 276 0.2% 258–293 252–300 249–304 244–316
Conservative Party 317 271 0.1% 253–288 247–294 244–299 239–310

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0% 99.7%  
313 0% 99.7% Last Result
314 0% 99.7%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 99.5%  
320 0% 99.4%  
321 0.1% 99.4%  
322 0.1% 99.3%  
323 0.1% 99.2%  
324 0.2% 99.1%  
325 0.1% 98.9%  
326 0.1% 98.7% Majority
327 0.2% 98.6%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.2% 98%  
330 0.2% 98%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 0.4% 97%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 0.4% 96%  
335 0.8% 95%  
336 1.5% 95%  
337 1.2% 93%  
338 0.4% 92%  
339 0.4% 91%  
340 0.5% 91%  
341 2% 90%  
342 1.3% 89%  
343 1.4% 87%  
344 2% 86%  
345 1.4% 84%  
346 3% 82%  
347 3% 79%  
348 3% 76%  
349 0.9% 74%  
350 3% 73%  
351 2% 70%  
352 5% 67%  
353 2% 63%  
354 4% 61%  
355 1.2% 57%  
356 2% 55%  
357 2% 54% Median
358 3% 52%  
359 2% 49%  
360 3% 47%  
361 4% 44%  
362 3% 41%  
363 2% 37%  
364 3% 35%  
365 3% 32%  
366 1.3% 30%  
367 1.3% 28%  
368 2% 27%  
369 2% 25%  
370 2% 23%  
371 2% 21%  
372 2% 19%  
373 2% 17%  
374 2% 15%  
375 2% 13%  
376 2% 12%  
377 1.0% 10%  
378 1.1% 9%  
379 1.3% 8%  
380 0.7% 6%  
381 0.9% 6%  
382 1.0% 5%  
383 0.5% 4%  
384 0.5% 3%  
385 0.8% 3%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.4% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.2% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0.1% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0% 99.8%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0% 99.7%  
308 0% 99.7%  
309 0% 99.7% Last Result
310 0% 99.7%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.6%  
313 0.1% 99.5%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0.1% 99.3%  
317 0.1% 99.2%  
318 0.2% 99.1%  
319 0.2% 99.0%  
320 0.3% 98.8%  
321 0.1% 98.5%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.2% 97%  
326 0.5% 97% Majority
327 0.5% 97%  
328 1.0% 96%  
329 0.4% 95%  
330 0.6% 95%  
331 1.3% 94%  
332 1.3% 93%  
333 0.3% 92%  
334 0.5% 91%  
335 0.6% 91%  
336 2% 90%  
337 1.4% 89%  
338 1.3% 87%  
339 2% 86%  
340 1.3% 84%  
341 3% 82%  
342 3% 79%  
343 2% 76%  
344 1.2% 74%  
345 3% 73%  
346 2% 70%  
347 5% 68%  
348 1.3% 63%  
349 4% 61%  
350 1.4% 57%  
351 2% 55%  
352 2% 54% Median
353 2% 51%  
354 2% 49%  
355 3% 47%  
356 3% 44%  
357 4% 41%  
358 2% 37%  
359 3% 35%  
360 2% 32%  
361 2% 30%  
362 1.5% 28%  
363 2% 27%  
364 2% 24%  
365 2% 23%  
366 2% 21%  
367 2% 19%  
368 2% 17%  
369 2% 15%  
370 1.4% 13%  
371 2% 12%  
372 0.9% 10%  
373 1.1% 9%  
374 1.3% 8%  
375 0.7% 6%  
376 1.0% 6%  
377 0.9% 5%  
378 0.5% 4%  
379 0.5% 3%  
380 0.7% 3%  
381 0.5% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.2%  
384 0.3% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.3%  
305 0.1% 99.3%  
306 0.2% 99.1%  
307 0.2% 99.0%  
308 0.2% 98.8%  
309 0.1% 98.6%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 1.0% 97%  
316 0.7% 96%  
317 0.8% 95%  
318 0.1% 94%  
319 1.2% 94%  
320 2% 93%  
321 0.3% 91%  
322 1.5% 91%  
323 1.2% 90%  
324 2% 89%  
325 0.9% 87%  
326 1.2% 86% Majority
327 1.5% 85%  
328 2% 83%  
329 3% 81%  
330 4% 78%  
331 4% 74%  
332 2% 71%  
333 1.3% 69%  
334 2% 67%  
335 5% 66%  
336 3% 61%  
337 2% 57%  
338 2% 55%  
339 3% 53% Median
340 2% 50%  
341 2% 49%  
342 3% 47%  
343 5% 44%  
344 2% 39%  
345 2% 37%  
346 3% 35%  
347 3% 33%  
348 3% 30%  
349 2% 27%  
350 2% 25%  
351 2% 23%  
352 3% 21%  
353 2% 18%  
354 2% 15%  
355 1.4% 13%  
356 0.9% 12%  
357 1.2% 11%  
358 1.5% 10%  
359 2% 8%  
360 0.9% 7%  
361 1.0% 6%  
362 0.9% 5%  
363 0.9% 4%  
364 0.9% 3%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.6% 2%  
367 0.2% 1.3%  
368 0.4% 1.2%  
369 0.3% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.7%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
298 0.1% 99.4%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.2%  
301 0.2% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 98.9%  
303 0.3% 98.7%  
304 0.1% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.2% 97%  
309 0.6% 97%  
310 0.9% 97%  
311 0.5% 96%  
312 0.6% 95%  
313 0.3% 94%  
314 1.1% 94%  
315 2% 93%  
316 0.3% 91%  
317 1.5% 91%  
318 1.2% 89%  
319 2% 88%  
320 1.0% 87%  
321 1.2% 86%  
322 1.4% 85%  
323 2% 83%  
324 3% 81%  
325 4% 78%  
326 3% 74% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 1.2% 68%  
329 1.3% 67%  
330 5% 66%  
331 3% 61%  
332 2% 57%  
333 2% 55%  
334 2% 53% Median
335 2% 51%  
336 2% 49%  
337 3% 47%  
338 5% 44%  
339 2% 39%  
340 2% 37%  
341 2% 35%  
342 3% 33%  
343 2% 29%  
344 2% 27%  
345 2% 25%  
346 2% 23%  
347 3% 21%  
348 3% 18%  
349 2% 15%  
350 1.2% 13%  
351 1.0% 12%  
352 1.3% 11%  
353 1.5% 10%  
354 2% 8%  
355 1.0% 7%  
356 0.9% 6%  
357 0.9% 5%  
358 0.9% 4%  
359 0.8% 3%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.4%  
363 0.3% 1.2%  
364 0.3% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0% 99.5% Last Result
279 0% 99.5%  
280 0% 99.5%  
281 0% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0% 99.3%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0% 99.1%  
288 0% 99.1%  
289 0.3% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 98.8%  
291 0.4% 98.7%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0% 98%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.7% 97%  
297 0.6% 96%  
298 0.5% 96%  
299 0.9% 95%  
300 1.1% 94%  
301 1.0% 93%  
302 0.7% 92%  
303 2% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 1.3% 88%  
306 2% 87%  
307 2% 85%  
308 2% 83%  
309 2% 81%  
310 3% 79%  
311 5% 76%  
312 3% 71%  
313 2% 68%  
314 3% 66%  
315 4% 63%  
316 2% 59%  
317 4% 57%  
318 2% 53%  
319 4% 51% Median
320 2% 48%  
321 1.1% 46%  
322 1.5% 44%  
323 2% 43%  
324 2% 41%  
325 0.8% 39%  
326 2% 38% Majority
327 1.3% 37%  
328 0.8% 35%  
329 1.2% 34%  
330 2% 33%  
331 2% 31%  
332 1.1% 29%  
333 1.3% 28%  
334 1.3% 27%  
335 0.8% 25%  
336 2% 25%  
337 2% 23%  
338 0.8% 21%  
339 0.8% 21%  
340 1.1% 20%  
341 1.3% 19%  
342 1.3% 17%  
343 0.9% 16%  
344 2% 15%  
345 2% 13%  
346 1.3% 11%  
347 0.7% 10%  
348 0.5% 9%  
349 1.0% 9%  
350 0.5% 8%  
351 1.0% 7%  
352 1.1% 6%  
353 0.9% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.4% 4%  
356 0.7% 3%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.5% 1.4%  
362 0.2% 0.9%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.2% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.6%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0% 99.5%  
273 0% 99.5%  
274 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0% 99.2%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.1% 98.6%  
286 0.4% 98.5%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.7% 98%  
290 0.4% 97%  
291 0.8% 97%  
292 0.4% 96%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.9% 95%  
295 1.1% 94%  
296 1.0% 93%  
297 0.7% 92%  
298 2% 91%  
299 2% 89%  
300 1.2% 88%  
301 1.4% 86%  
302 2% 85%  
303 2% 82%  
304 2% 80%  
305 3% 79%  
306 5% 76%  
307 3% 71%  
308 2% 68%  
309 3% 66%  
310 3% 63%  
311 3% 60%  
312 3% 57%  
313 3% 54%  
314 3% 51% Median
315 2% 48%  
316 1.3% 46%  
317 1.4% 44%  
318 2% 43%  
319 2% 41%  
320 0.8% 39%  
321 2% 39%  
322 2% 37%  
323 1.2% 35%  
324 1.1% 34%  
325 2% 33%  
326 2% 31% Majority
327 1.1% 29%  
328 2% 28%  
329 0.9% 26%  
330 1.0% 25%  
331 1.2% 24%  
332 2% 23%  
333 0.8% 21%  
334 0.8% 21%  
335 1.3% 20%  
336 1.4% 18%  
337 1.3% 17%  
338 0.8% 16%  
339 2% 15%  
340 2% 13%  
341 1.4% 11%  
342 0.6% 10%  
343 0.5% 9%  
344 1.0% 9%  
345 0.5% 8%  
346 1.1% 7%  
347 1.1% 6%  
348 0.9% 5%  
349 0.6% 4%  
350 0.3% 4%  
351 0.8% 3%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.5% 1.4%  
357 0.2% 0.9%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.2% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.5%  
271 0.2% 99.4%  
272 0.4% 99.2%  
273 0.4% 98.9%  
274 0.1% 98.5%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.8% 98%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 1.0% 96%  
282 1.1% 95%  
283 0.9% 94%  
284 0.6% 93%  
285 1.0% 92%  
286 0.4% 91%  
287 0.6% 91%  
288 1.5% 90%  
289 2% 89%  
290 2% 87%  
291 0.9% 85%  
292 1.3% 84%  
293 1.3% 83%  
294 1.3% 81%  
295 0.6% 80%  
296 1.1% 79%  
297 1.4% 78%  
298 1.0% 77%  
299 1.2% 76%  
300 1.0% 75%  
301 2% 74%  
302 1.4% 72%  
303 2% 71%  
304 2% 69%  
305 1.3% 67%  
306 1.3% 66%  
307 2% 64%  
308 2% 63%  
309 0.8% 61%  
310 2% 60%  
311 2% 59%  
312 1.4% 57%  
313 1.4% 56%  
314 3% 54% Median
315 3% 52%  
316 3% 48%  
317 3% 45%  
318 3% 42%  
319 3% 39%  
320 2% 37%  
321 3% 34%  
322 2% 32%  
323 5% 29%  
324 2% 24%  
325 2% 22%  
326 2% 20% Majority
327 2% 18%  
328 2% 15%  
329 1.0% 13%  
330 2% 12%  
331 2% 11%  
332 0.8% 9%  
333 0.9% 8%  
334 1.2% 7%  
335 0.8% 6%  
336 0.4% 5%  
337 0.3% 5%  
338 0.8% 4%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.1% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.4%  
346 0.1% 1.1%  
347 0.1% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.8%  
350 0% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.6%  
354 0% 0.6%  
355 0% 0.6%  
356 0% 0.5% Last Result
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0% 0.5%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.7%  
258 0% 99.7%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0% 99.5%  
263 0% 99.5%  
264 0% 99.4%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.4% Last Result
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.1% 99.2%  
269 0% 99.1%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.3% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 98.7%  
273 0% 98.7%  
274 0.1% 98.6%  
275 0.3% 98.6%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 0.8% 98%  
278 0.6% 97%  
279 0.5% 96%  
280 0.4% 96%  
281 0.8% 96%  
282 1.0% 95%  
283 0.7% 94%  
284 1.0% 93%  
285 1.3% 92%  
286 1.4% 91%  
287 1.3% 90%  
288 3% 88%  
289 2% 86%  
290 3% 84%  
291 4% 81%  
292 3% 77%  
293 2% 74%  
294 2% 72%  
295 2% 69%  
296 3% 67%  
297 3% 64%  
298 2% 60%  
299 3% 59%  
300 3% 55%  
301 6% 53% Median
302 2% 47%  
303 2% 45%  
304 1.1% 44%  
305 0.8% 42%  
306 2% 42%  
307 1.0% 39%  
308 2% 38%  
309 0.9% 37%  
310 2% 36%  
311 2% 34%  
312 2% 32%  
313 1.5% 30%  
314 3% 29%  
315 2% 26%  
316 0.7% 24%  
317 0.5% 23%  
318 2% 23%  
319 0.9% 21%  
320 1.4% 20%  
321 1.0% 18%  
322 0.8% 17%  
323 1.1% 17%  
324 2% 16%  
325 1.3% 14%  
326 1.1% 13% Majority
327 2% 11%  
328 1.2% 9%  
329 0.9% 8%  
330 0.5% 7%  
331 0.3% 7%  
332 1.0% 6%  
333 0.4% 6%  
334 1.5% 5%  
335 0.7% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.3% 1.5%  
341 0.3% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0.2% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.2% 0.3%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.2% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.3% 99.3%  
268 0.4% 99.0%  
269 0.1% 98.6%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.7% 98%  
274 0.5% 97%  
275 0.7% 96%  
276 1.0% 96%  
277 1.1% 95%  
278 0.9% 94%  
279 0.6% 93%  
280 1.1% 92%  
281 0.4% 91%  
282 0.6% 91%  
283 1.4% 90%  
284 2% 89%  
285 2% 87%  
286 0.9% 85%  
287 1.4% 84%  
288 1.1% 82%  
289 1.0% 81%  
290 0.7% 80%  
291 1.2% 79%  
292 1.4% 78%  
293 1.4% 77%  
294 0.9% 75%  
295 1.3% 74%  
296 1.2% 73%  
297 1.4% 72%  
298 2% 71%  
299 2% 69%  
300 1.3% 67%  
301 1.1% 65%  
302 1.2% 64%  
303 2% 63%  
304 1.0% 61%  
305 2% 60%  
306 2% 59%  
307 1.4% 57%  
308 1.3% 56%  
309 2% 54% Median
310 4% 52%  
311 2% 48%  
312 4% 46%  
313 2% 43%  
314 3% 40%  
315 3% 37%  
316 2% 34%  
317 3% 32%  
318 5% 29%  
319 3% 24%  
320 2% 21%  
321 2% 19%  
322 2% 17%  
323 2% 15%  
324 1.3% 13%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10% Majority
327 0.8% 8%  
328 0.9% 8%  
329 1.2% 7%  
330 0.8% 5%  
331 0.6% 5%  
332 0.5% 4%  
333 0.9% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.1% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.2%  
341 0.1% 1.0%  
342 0% 0.9%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0% 0.7%  
346 0% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.6%  
350 0% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.5% Last Result
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.7%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.4%  
260 0% 99.3%  
261 0.1% 99.3%  
262 0% 99.2% Last Result
263 0.1% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.3% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 98.5%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 0.7% 97%  
274 0.5% 96%  
275 0.2% 96%  
276 0.8% 95%  
277 0.8% 95%  
278 0.8% 94%  
279 1.0% 93%  
280 1.3% 92%  
281 1.3% 91%  
282 1.3% 89%  
283 3% 88%  
284 2% 85%  
285 3% 84%  
286 4% 81%  
287 3% 77%  
288 2% 74%  
289 2% 71%  
290 2% 69%  
291 3% 67%  
292 3% 64%  
293 1.4% 61%  
294 3% 59%  
295 3% 56%  
296 7% 53% Median
297 2% 47%  
298 1.2% 45%  
299 1.0% 44%  
300 1.2% 43%  
301 2% 42%  
302 1.3% 40%  
303 2% 38%  
304 1.2% 36%  
305 2% 35%  
306 2% 33%  
307 2% 32%  
308 2% 30%  
309 2% 28%  
310 2% 26%  
311 0.9% 24%  
312 0.7% 23%  
313 2% 22%  
314 0.9% 21%  
315 1.3% 20%  
316 1.0% 18%  
317 0.9% 17%  
318 1.0% 16%  
319 2% 15%  
320 1.3% 14%  
321 1.1% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 1.2% 9%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 0.6% 7%  
326 0.4% 7% Majority
327 0.9% 6%  
328 0.4% 5%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.9%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.2% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.4% 99.5%  
261 0.3% 99.1%  
262 0.2% 98.8%  
263 0.6% 98.5%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 1.2% 98%  
266 0.7% 96%  
267 1.0% 96%  
268 0.9% 95%  
269 0.9% 94%  
270 2% 93%  
271 2% 91%  
272 1.2% 90%  
273 0.9% 89%  
274 1.3% 88%  
275 2% 86%  
276 3% 84%  
277 3% 82%  
278 2% 79%  
279 2% 77%  
280 2% 75%  
281 3% 73%  
282 3% 70%  
283 3% 67%  
284 2% 65%  
285 2% 63%  
286 5% 61%  
287 3% 56%  
288 2% 53%  
289 2% 51% Median
290 3% 49%  
291 2% 47%  
292 3% 45%  
293 3% 42%  
294 5% 39%  
295 2% 34%  
296 1.3% 32%  
297 2% 31%  
298 4% 29%  
299 4% 25%  
300 3% 21%  
301 2% 19%  
302 2% 17%  
303 1.4% 15%  
304 1.1% 14%  
305 1.2% 13%  
306 1.2% 11%  
307 1.4% 10%  
308 0.4% 9%  
309 2% 8%  
310 1.2% 7%  
311 0.2% 6%  
312 0.8% 5%  
313 0.8% 5%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.2% 3%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 1.4%  
322 0.2% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.9%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.7% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0% 0.4% Last Result
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.8%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0.4% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 99.0%  
247 0.6% 98.8%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 0.5% 97%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 1.1% 96%  
253 0.8% 95%  
254 0.9% 94%  
255 1.2% 93%  
256 1.0% 92%  
257 0.9% 91%  
258 2% 90%  
259 1.2% 88%  
260 2% 87%  
261 2% 85%  
262 2% 83%  
263 2% 81%  
264 2% 79%  
265 2% 77%  
266 2% 75%  
267 1.3% 73%  
268 2% 72%  
269 2% 70%  
270 3% 68%  
271 2% 65%  
272 4% 63%  
273 4% 59%  
274 3% 56%  
275 2% 53%  
276 2% 51% Median
277 2% 49%  
278 2% 46%  
279 1.4% 44%  
280 4% 43%  
281 2% 39%  
282 5% 37%  
283 2% 32%  
284 3% 30%  
285 0.9% 27%  
286 3% 26%  
287 3% 24%  
288 4% 21%  
289 1.3% 17%  
290 1.4% 16%  
291 1.5% 14%  
292 2% 13%  
293 1.5% 11%  
294 0.6% 10%  
295 0.5% 9%  
296 0.3% 9%  
297 1.3% 8%  
298 1.3% 7%  
299 0.5% 6%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 1.1% 5%  
302 0.2% 3%  
303 0.6% 3%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.5% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.2% 1.4%  
310 0.2% 1.2%  
311 0.2% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.9%  
313 0.1% 0.8%  
314 0.1% 0.7%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3% Last Result
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.4%  
241 0.2% 99.1%  
242 0.6% 98.8%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 1.2% 96%  
248 0.7% 95%  
249 0.9% 94%  
250 1.2% 93%  
251 0.9% 92%  
252 0.9% 91%  
253 2% 90%  
254 2% 88%  
255 2% 86%  
256 2% 84%  
257 2% 83%  
258 1.5% 81%  
259 2% 79%  
260 2% 77%  
261 2% 75%  
262 1.5% 73%  
263 1.2% 72%  
264 3% 70%  
265 2% 68%  
266 2% 65%  
267 3% 63%  
268 4% 59%  
269 3% 56%  
270 2% 53%  
271 3% 51% Median
272 2% 48%  
273 2% 46%  
274 1.2% 44%  
275 4% 43%  
276 2% 39%  
277 5% 37%  
278 2% 32%  
279 3% 30%  
280 0.8% 27%  
281 3% 26%  
282 3% 23%  
283 3% 20%  
284 1.5% 17%  
285 2% 16%  
286 2% 14%  
287 2% 13%  
288 1.4% 11%  
289 0.6% 10%  
290 0.4% 9%  
291 0.4% 9%  
292 1.2% 8%  
293 1.4% 7%  
294 0.8% 6%  
295 0.5% 5%  
296 0.9% 4%  
297 0.2% 3%  
298 0.5% 3%  
299 0.3% 3%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.1% 1.4%  
304 0.1% 1.3%  
305 0.2% 1.1%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3% Last Result
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations