Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 17–19 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.1% 37.8–40.5% 37.4–41.0% 37.0–41.3% 36.4–42.0%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.1% 37.8–40.5% 37.4–41.0% 37.0–41.3% 36.4–42.0%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.8% 7.1–8.6% 6.9–8.9% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.9% 5.3–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–4.0%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 296 274–317 270–326 267–330 260–338
Labour Party 262 286 259–308 252–315 247–318 241–327
Liberal Democrats 12 17 15–21 13–22 12–24 9–26
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 34 14–47 9–49 7–51 3–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.2% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.4%  
262 0.3% 99.2%  
263 0.2% 98.9%  
264 0.2% 98.8%  
265 0.4% 98.6%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.7% 97%  
269 0.8% 97%  
270 1.2% 96%  
271 0.8% 95%  
272 1.4% 94%  
273 0.9% 92%  
274 2% 92%  
275 1.3% 90%  
276 1.1% 88%  
277 2% 87%  
278 2% 85%  
279 2% 84%  
280 2% 82%  
281 2% 80%  
282 3% 78%  
283 1.4% 75%  
284 2% 74%  
285 4% 72%  
286 1.4% 68%  
287 2% 67%  
288 3% 65%  
289 2% 62%  
290 0.8% 60%  
291 1.2% 59%  
292 2% 58%  
293 2% 56%  
294 1.2% 54%  
295 2% 53%  
296 3% 51% Median
297 3% 49%  
298 4% 46%  
299 4% 42%  
300 3% 38%  
301 2% 35%  
302 1.5% 33%  
303 1.3% 32%  
304 2% 31%  
305 1.4% 29%  
306 1.1% 27%  
307 0.9% 26%  
308 0.9% 26%  
309 2% 25%  
310 3% 23%  
311 1.2% 20%  
312 1.0% 19%  
313 1.5% 18%  
314 3% 16%  
315 1.1% 13%  
316 0.9% 12%  
317 1.4% 11% Last Result
318 0.3% 10%  
319 0.4% 10%  
320 0.8% 9%  
321 0.6% 8%  
322 0.3% 8%  
323 0.6% 8%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 0.3% 6%  
326 0.8% 5% Majority
327 0.6% 5%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.3%  
243 0.2% 99.1%  
244 0.1% 98.9%  
245 0.3% 98.8%  
246 0.5% 98.5%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.6% 96%  
252 0.4% 95%  
253 0.3% 95%  
254 0.3% 94%  
255 0.2% 94%  
256 0.7% 94%  
257 0.5% 93%  
258 1.0% 93%  
259 3% 92%  
260 1.3% 89%  
261 1.5% 88%  
262 2% 86% Last Result
263 0.7% 85%  
264 2% 84%  
265 0.5% 83%  
266 1.0% 82%  
267 0.7% 81%  
268 1.1% 80%  
269 0.6% 79%  
270 2% 79%  
271 1.3% 77%  
272 1.1% 75%  
273 2% 74%  
274 3% 72%  
275 3% 69%  
276 5% 66%  
277 1.3% 61%  
278 0.6% 60%  
279 0.6% 59%  
280 3% 58%  
281 0.7% 56%  
282 1.3% 55%  
283 0.4% 54%  
284 0.9% 53%  
285 2% 52%  
286 5% 51% Median
287 3% 46%  
288 3% 43%  
289 3% 40%  
290 1.1% 36%  
291 1.4% 35%  
292 0.7% 34%  
293 0.5% 33%  
294 3% 33%  
295 2% 30%  
296 1.3% 28%  
297 1.4% 27%  
298 2% 26%  
299 1.4% 23%  
300 2% 22%  
301 3% 20%  
302 1.2% 17%  
303 2% 16%  
304 1.3% 14%  
305 0.7% 13%  
306 1.0% 12%  
307 1.4% 12%  
308 0.8% 10%  
309 0.9% 9%  
310 1.2% 8%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 0.5% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.5% 5%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.3%  
325 0.1% 0.9%  
326 0.2% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 0.1% 99.7%  
9 0.6% 99.6%  
10 0.6% 99.0%  
11 0.5% 98%  
12 1.2% 98% Last Result
13 2% 97%  
14 2% 94%  
15 13% 92%  
16 16% 80%  
17 20% 63% Median
18 15% 43%  
19 6% 28%  
20 7% 22%  
21 9% 15%  
22 1.3% 6%  
23 2% 5%  
24 1.2% 3%  
25 0.7% 2%  
26 0.8% 1.1%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.6%  
4 0.2% 99.4%  
5 0.5% 99.2%  
6 0.7% 98.7%  
7 1.2% 98%  
8 0.8% 97%  
9 3% 96%  
10 0.4% 93%  
11 0.3% 93%  
12 0.4% 93%  
13 1.0% 92%  
14 1.4% 91%  
15 0.9% 90%  
16 0.3% 89%  
17 0.8% 89%  
18 0.4% 88%  
19 2% 88%  
20 1.0% 85%  
21 2% 84%  
22 3% 83%  
23 1.2% 80%  
24 4% 79%  
25 3% 75%  
26 4% 72%  
27 5% 69%  
28 4% 64%  
29 4% 60%  
30 1.0% 56%  
31 1.1% 55%  
32 2% 54%  
33 2% 52%  
34 0.7% 50% Median
35 2% 50% Last Result
36 1.5% 47%  
37 0.8% 46%  
38 8% 45%  
39 6% 37%  
40 4% 31%  
41 2% 28%  
42 2% 25%  
43 4% 23%  
44 3% 19%  
45 3% 16%  
46 2% 13%  
47 2% 11%  
48 2% 9%  
49 2% 7%  
50 1.2% 4%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.5% 2%  
53 0.8% 1.2%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Median
1 16% 41%  
2 17% 24%  
3 3% 7%  
4 4% 4% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 327 55% 304–354 297–362 293–366 284–373
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 326 52% 303–353 297–362 292–365 283–373
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 334 71% 313–356 304–360 300–363 292–370
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 332 70% 311–355 304–359 300–362 292–369
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 314 24% 293–335 288–342 286–347 279–354
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 316 35% 295–337 288–342 283–344 276–351
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 316 33% 294–336 287–341 282–343 276–351
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 304 12% 277–327 268–333 265–338 257–347
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 303 12% 276–326 268–333 264–337 257–346
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 298 6% 275–319 271–326 268–330 261–338
Conservative Party 317 296 5% 274–317 270–326 267–330 260–338
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 286 0.9% 260–309 253–315 248–319 241–328
Labour Party 262 286 0.8% 259–308 252–315 247–318 241–327

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.4% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 98.8%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.3% 97%  
295 0.4% 97%  
296 1.0% 97%  
297 0.8% 96%  
298 0.7% 95%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 0.6% 93%  
301 1.0% 93%  
302 0.4% 92%  
303 1.4% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 0.5% 88%  
306 0.5% 88%  
307 0.6% 88%  
308 0.8% 87%  
309 1.0% 86%  
310 3% 85%  
311 2% 82%  
312 1.3% 79%  
313 2% 78%  
314 2% 77%  
315 2% 75%  
316 0.9% 72%  
317 0.8% 71%  
318 3% 71%  
319 0.9% 68%  
320 0.7% 67%  
321 0.9% 66%  
322 1.0% 65%  
323 3% 64%  
324 3% 61%  
325 3% 59%  
326 4% 55% Majority
327 2% 51%  
328 1.0% 49%  
329 1.4% 48%  
330 0.6% 47% Median
331 1.5% 46%  
332 0.9% 45%  
333 0.5% 44%  
334 1.2% 43%  
335 2% 42%  
336 5% 40%  
337 2% 35%  
338 1.4% 33%  
339 3% 32%  
340 3% 28%  
341 1.2% 26%  
342 2% 25%  
343 1.0% 23%  
344 2% 22%  
345 0.6% 21%  
346 1.1% 20%  
347 0.7% 19%  
348 0.6% 18%  
349 2% 18%  
350 0.9% 16%  
351 2% 15%  
352 2% 13%  
353 0.9% 11%  
354 0.6% 10%  
355 1.3% 10%  
356 1.2% 8% Last Result
357 0.3% 7%  
358 0.4% 7%  
359 0.6% 6%  
360 0.3% 6%  
361 0.3% 6%  
362 0.9% 5%  
363 0.4% 4%  
364 0.8% 4%  
365 0.3% 3%  
366 0.5% 3%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.2%  
371 0.2% 1.0%  
372 0.1% 0.8%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.2% 99.2%  
287 0.5% 98.9%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.3% 97%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 1.0% 96%  
297 1.0% 95%  
298 0.7% 94%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 0.8% 93%  
301 0.6% 92%  
302 0.5% 92%  
303 3% 91%  
304 0.5% 88%  
305 0.4% 88%  
306 0.6% 87%  
307 0.6% 87%  
308 0.9% 86%  
309 1.2% 85%  
310 4% 84%  
311 2% 80%  
312 0.5% 78%  
313 2% 77%  
314 2% 75%  
315 2% 74%  
316 1.4% 72%  
317 1.3% 70%  
318 2% 69%  
319 0.4% 67%  
320 0.8% 66%  
321 1.3% 65%  
322 1.1% 64%  
323 3% 63%  
324 4% 60%  
325 4% 56%  
326 3% 52% Majority
327 1.3% 49%  
328 1.0% 48%  
329 1.1% 47%  
330 0.8% 46% Median
331 1.2% 45%  
332 1.0% 44%  
333 1.0% 43%  
334 2% 42%  
335 4% 40%  
336 4% 37%  
337 2% 33%  
338 2% 31%  
339 3% 29%  
340 1.3% 26%  
341 1.4% 25%  
342 1.0% 23%  
343 0.9% 22%  
344 2% 22%  
345 0.8% 20%  
346 1.0% 19%  
347 0.6% 18%  
348 1.5% 18%  
349 1.4% 16%  
350 2% 15%  
351 2% 13%  
352 1.3% 12% Last Result
353 0.4% 10%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 1.2% 9%  
356 1.0% 8%  
357 0.2% 7%  
358 0.4% 7%  
359 0.6% 6%  
360 0.3% 6%  
361 0.3% 5%  
362 1.2% 5%  
363 0.6% 4%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 0.2% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.3% 1.4%  
370 0.2% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 0.9%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.2% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.2% 99.0%  
297 0.2% 98.9%  
298 0.6% 98.7%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.7% 97%  
302 0.6% 97%  
303 0.6% 96%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 0.3% 95%  
306 1.2% 94%  
307 0.6% 93%  
308 0.3% 92%  
309 0.6% 92%  
310 0.8% 92%  
311 0.4% 91%  
312 0.3% 90%  
313 1.4% 90% Last Result
314 0.9% 89%  
315 1.1% 88%  
316 3% 87%  
317 1.5% 84%  
318 1.0% 82%  
319 1.2% 81%  
320 3% 80%  
321 2% 77%  
322 0.9% 75%  
323 0.9% 74%  
324 1.1% 74%  
325 1.4% 73%  
326 2% 71% Majority
327 1.3% 69%  
328 1.5% 68%  
329 2% 67%  
330 3% 65%  
331 4% 62%  
332 4% 58%  
333 3% 54%  
334 3% 51%  
335 2% 49%  
336 1.2% 47%  
337 2% 46% Median
338 2% 44%  
339 1.2% 42%  
340 0.8% 41%  
341 2% 40%  
342 3% 38%  
343 2% 35%  
344 1.4% 33%  
345 4% 32%  
346 2% 28%  
347 1.4% 26%  
348 3% 25%  
349 2% 22%  
350 2% 20%  
351 2% 18%  
352 2% 16%  
353 2% 15%  
354 1.1% 13%  
355 1.3% 12%  
356 2% 10%  
357 0.9% 8%  
358 1.4% 8%  
359 0.8% 6%  
360 1.2% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.4%  
367 0.2% 1.2%  
368 0.3% 1.1%  
369 0.2% 0.8%  
370 0.2% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.3% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.1% 99.2%  
295 0.2% 99.1%  
296 0.2% 98.9%  
297 0.3% 98.7%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.7% 97%  
302 0.6% 96%  
303 0.6% 96%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 0.5% 94%  
306 1.0% 94%  
307 0.6% 93%  
308 0.4% 92%  
309 0.4% 92% Last Result
310 0.7% 91%  
311 0.6% 91%  
312 0.5% 90%  
313 1.4% 89%  
314 1.0% 88%  
315 3% 87%  
316 2% 85%  
317 2% 83%  
318 1.0% 81%  
319 2% 80%  
320 3% 78%  
321 0.9% 75%  
322 0.7% 74%  
323 1.0% 74%  
324 0.9% 72%  
325 1.4% 72%  
326 2% 70% Majority
327 1.4% 68%  
328 2% 67%  
329 2% 65%  
330 3% 63%  
331 5% 60%  
332 4% 54%  
333 1.2% 50%  
334 2% 49%  
335 2% 47%  
336 0.8% 45%  
337 1.0% 44% Median
338 2% 43%  
339 1.0% 41%  
340 1.2% 40%  
341 3% 39%  
342 2% 37%  
343 3% 34%  
344 2% 32%  
345 4% 30%  
346 2% 26%  
347 1.4% 25%  
348 3% 24%  
349 2% 20%  
350 2% 19%  
351 2% 17%  
352 2% 15%  
353 2% 14%  
354 1.2% 12%  
355 2% 11%  
356 0.8% 9%  
357 0.8% 8%  
358 2% 7%  
359 1.0% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 1.1% 4%  
362 0.3% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.1% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 1.1%  
368 0.3% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.2% 99.4%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.2% 98.9%  
283 0.3% 98.7%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 1.0% 98%  
287 1.1% 97%  
288 0.8% 96%  
289 1.1% 95%  
290 0.7% 94%  
291 2% 93%  
292 1.0% 92%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 88%  
295 2% 87%  
296 2% 85%  
297 2% 83%  
298 1.2% 81%  
299 2% 80%  
300 1.5% 78%  
301 2% 77%  
302 4% 75%  
303 2% 71%  
304 3% 69%  
305 3% 65%  
306 2% 62%  
307 1.3% 60%  
308 2% 59%  
309 1.3% 57%  
310 1.2% 56%  
311 1.2% 55%  
312 2% 54%  
313 1.5% 52% Median
314 5% 50%  
315 3% 45%  
316 4% 43%  
317 3% 39%  
318 2% 36%  
319 1.3% 35%  
320 3% 33%  
321 0.9% 30%  
322 2% 30%  
323 0.8% 28%  
324 1.4% 27%  
325 2% 25%  
326 2% 24% Majority
327 1.0% 22%  
328 1.3% 21%  
329 1.0% 20% Last Result
330 3% 19%  
331 2% 16%  
332 2% 14%  
333 0.7% 12%  
334 0.7% 11%  
335 0.7% 10%  
336 1.1% 10%  
337 0.5% 8%  
338 0.4% 8%  
339 0.3% 8%  
340 0.5% 7%  
341 0.4% 7%  
342 2% 6%  
343 0.3% 5%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 0.4% 4%  
346 0.6% 3%  
347 0.5% 3%  
348 0.8% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.5%  
350 0.2% 1.3%  
351 0.2% 1.1%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.3% 0.8%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0.3% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.2% 98.9%  
281 0.2% 98.7%  
282 0.8% 98.5%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.6% 97%  
285 0.4% 97%  
286 0.6% 96%  
287 0.3% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.4% 94%  
290 0.5% 93%  
291 0.3% 93%  
292 0.4% 92%  
293 0.5% 92%  
294 1.1% 92%  
295 0.7% 90%  
296 0.7% 90%  
297 0.7% 89%  
298 2% 88%  
299 2% 86%  
300 3% 84%  
301 1.0% 81% Last Result
302 1.3% 80%  
303 1.0% 79%  
304 2% 78%  
305 2% 76%  
306 1.4% 75%  
307 0.8% 73%  
308 2% 72%  
309 0.9% 70%  
310 3% 70%  
311 1.3% 67%  
312 2% 65%  
313 3% 64%  
314 4% 61%  
315 3% 57%  
316 5% 55%  
317 1.5% 50%  
318 2% 48%  
319 1.2% 46%  
320 1.2% 45% Median
321 1.3% 44%  
322 2% 43%  
323 1.3% 41%  
324 2% 40%  
325 3% 38%  
326 3% 35% Majority
327 2% 31%  
328 4% 29%  
329 2% 25%  
330 1.5% 23%  
331 2% 22%  
332 1.2% 20%  
333 2% 19%  
334 2% 17%  
335 2% 15%  
336 2% 13%  
337 2% 12%  
338 1.0% 9%  
339 2% 8%  
340 0.7% 7%  
341 1.1% 6%  
342 0.8% 5%  
343 1.1% 4%  
344 1.0% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.3%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.5%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.1% 99.1%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.3% 98.8%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.8% 98%  
283 0.4% 97%  
284 0.6% 97%  
285 0.4% 96%  
286 0.7% 96%  
287 0.4% 95%  
288 2% 95%  
289 0.3% 93%  
290 0.4% 93%  
291 0.4% 93%  
292 0.6% 92%  
293 0.6% 92%  
294 1.1% 91%  
295 0.5% 90%  
296 0.9% 89%  
297 2% 89% Last Result
298 2% 87%  
299 4% 85%  
300 0.9% 81%  
301 1.3% 80%  
302 1.3% 79%  
303 2% 78%  
304 0.6% 76%  
305 2% 75%  
306 1.0% 73%  
307 1.3% 72%  
308 1.5% 71%  
309 2% 70%  
310 3% 68%  
311 0.9% 65%  
312 3% 64%  
313 3% 62%  
314 6% 58%  
315 2% 53%  
316 2% 51%  
317 1.3% 49%  
318 2% 47%  
319 1.1% 45%  
320 0.9% 44% Median
321 1.4% 43%  
322 2% 41%  
323 1.3% 40%  
324 2% 38%  
325 3% 36%  
326 4% 33% Majority
327 3% 29%  
328 3% 26%  
329 1.0% 23%  
330 2% 22%  
331 2% 21%  
332 1.2% 19%  
333 2% 18%  
334 1.2% 15%  
335 2% 14%  
336 2% 12%  
337 1.2% 10%  
338 1.3% 9%  
339 0.8% 7%  
340 0.8% 7%  
341 1.1% 6%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 1.3% 4%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 0.9%  
350 0.2% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.5%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.3% 98.9%  
262 0.4% 98.6%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.4% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.7% 97%  
267 0.6% 97%  
268 1.2% 96%  
269 0.3% 95%  
270 0.3% 95%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 0.4% 94%  
273 0.2% 93%  
274 1.0% 93%  
275 1.2% 92%  
276 0.7% 91%  
277 0.4% 90%  
278 1.3% 90% Last Result
279 2% 88%  
280 2% 87%  
281 1.4% 85%  
282 1.5% 84%  
283 0.6% 82%  
284 1.0% 82%  
285 0.8% 81%  
286 2% 80%  
287 0.9% 78%  
288 1.0% 78%  
289 1.4% 77%  
290 1.3% 75%  
291 3% 74%  
292 2% 71%  
293 2% 69%  
294 4% 67%  
295 4% 63%  
296 2% 60%  
297 1.0% 58%  
298 1.0% 57%  
299 1.2% 56%  
300 0.8% 55%  
301 1.1% 54%  
302 1.0% 53%  
303 1.3% 52% Median
304 3% 51%  
305 4% 48%  
306 4% 44%  
307 3% 40%  
308 1.1% 37%  
309 1.3% 36%  
310 0.8% 35%  
311 0.4% 34%  
312 2% 33%  
313 1.3% 31%  
314 1.4% 30%  
315 2% 28%  
316 2% 26%  
317 2% 25%  
318 0.5% 23%  
319 2% 22%  
320 4% 20%  
321 1.2% 16%  
322 0.9% 15%  
323 0.6% 14%  
324 0.6% 13%  
325 0.4% 13%  
326 0.5% 12% Majority
327 3% 12%  
328 0.5% 9%  
329 0.6% 8%  
330 0.8% 8%  
331 0.7% 7%  
332 0.7% 6%  
333 1.0% 6%  
334 1.0% 5%  
335 0.5% 4%  
336 0.3% 3%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.1% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.1% 99.3%  
259 0.2% 99.2%  
260 0.2% 99.0%  
261 0.3% 98.8%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.5% 98%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.8% 97%  
267 0.4% 96%  
268 0.9% 96%  
269 0.3% 95%  
270 0.3% 94%  
271 0.6% 94%  
272 0.4% 94%  
273 0.3% 93%  
274 1.2% 93% Last Result
275 1.3% 92%  
276 0.6% 90%  
277 0.9% 90%  
278 2% 89%  
279 2% 87%  
280 0.9% 85%  
281 2% 84%  
282 0.6% 82%  
283 0.7% 82%  
284 1.1% 81%  
285 0.6% 80%  
286 2% 79%  
287 1.0% 78%  
288 2% 77%  
289 1.2% 75%  
290 3% 74%  
291 3% 72%  
292 1.4% 68%  
293 2% 67%  
294 5% 65%  
295 2% 60%  
296 1.2% 58%  
297 0.5% 57%  
298 0.9% 56%  
299 1.5% 55%  
300 0.6% 54%  
301 1.4% 53%  
302 1.0% 52%  
303 2% 51% Median
304 4% 49%  
305 3% 45%  
306 3% 41%  
307 3% 39%  
308 1.0% 36%  
309 0.9% 35%  
310 0.7% 34%  
311 0.9% 33%  
312 3% 32%  
313 0.8% 29%  
314 0.9% 29%  
315 2% 28%  
316 2% 25%  
317 2% 23%  
318 1.3% 22%  
319 2% 21%  
320 3% 18%  
321 1.0% 15%  
322 0.8% 14%  
323 0.6% 13%  
324 0.5% 12%  
325 0.5% 12%  
326 2% 12% Majority
327 1.4% 10%  
328 0.4% 8%  
329 1.0% 8%  
330 0.6% 7%  
331 0.7% 7%  
332 0.7% 6%  
333 0.8% 5%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.3% 3%  
337 0.3% 3%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.2%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.3% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.1%  
264 0.1% 98.9%  
265 0.3% 98.8%  
266 0.3% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 1.1% 97%  
270 0.6% 96%  
271 1.0% 96%  
272 2% 95%  
273 0.8% 93%  
274 0.8% 92%  
275 2% 91%  
276 1.2% 89%  
277 2% 88%  
278 2% 86%  
279 2% 85%  
280 2% 83%  
281 2% 81%  
282 3% 80%  
283 1.4% 76%  
284 2% 75%  
285 4% 74%  
286 2% 70%  
287 3% 68%  
288 2% 66%  
289 3% 63%  
290 1.2% 61%  
291 1.0% 60%  
292 2% 59%  
293 1.0% 57%  
294 0.8% 56%  
295 2% 55%  
296 2% 53% Median
297 1.2% 51%  
298 4% 50%  
299 5% 46%  
300 3% 40%  
301 2% 37%  
302 2% 35%  
303 1.4% 33%  
304 2% 32%  
305 1.4% 30%  
306 0.9% 28%  
307 1.0% 28%  
308 0.7% 26%  
309 0.9% 26%  
310 3% 25%  
311 2% 22%  
312 1.0% 20%  
313 2% 19%  
314 2% 17%  
315 3% 15%  
316 1.0% 13%  
317 1.4% 12%  
318 0.5% 11%  
319 0.6% 10%  
320 0.7% 9%  
321 0.4% 9% Last Result
322 0.4% 8%  
323 0.6% 8%  
324 1.0% 7%  
325 0.5% 6%  
326 0.8% 6% Majority
327 0.6% 5%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.7% 4%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.1%  
336 0.1% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.3% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.2% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.4%  
262 0.3% 99.2%  
263 0.2% 98.9%  
264 0.2% 98.8%  
265 0.4% 98.6%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 0.5% 98%  
268 0.7% 97%  
269 0.8% 97%  
270 1.2% 96%  
271 0.8% 95%  
272 1.4% 94%  
273 0.9% 92%  
274 2% 92%  
275 1.3% 90%  
276 1.1% 88%  
277 2% 87%  
278 2% 85%  
279 2% 84%  
280 2% 82%  
281 2% 80%  
282 3% 78%  
283 1.4% 75%  
284 2% 74%  
285 4% 72%  
286 1.4% 68%  
287 2% 67%  
288 3% 65%  
289 2% 62%  
290 0.8% 60%  
291 1.2% 59%  
292 2% 58%  
293 2% 56%  
294 1.2% 54%  
295 2% 53%  
296 3% 51% Median
297 3% 49%  
298 4% 46%  
299 4% 42%  
300 3% 38%  
301 2% 35%  
302 1.5% 33%  
303 1.3% 32%  
304 2% 31%  
305 1.4% 29%  
306 1.1% 27%  
307 0.9% 26%  
308 0.9% 26%  
309 2% 25%  
310 3% 23%  
311 1.2% 20%  
312 1.0% 19%  
313 1.5% 18%  
314 3% 16%  
315 1.1% 13%  
316 0.9% 12%  
317 1.4% 11% Last Result
318 0.3% 10%  
319 0.4% 10%  
320 0.8% 9%  
321 0.6% 8%  
322 0.3% 8%  
323 0.6% 8%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 0.3% 6%  
326 0.8% 5% Majority
327 0.6% 5%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.6% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.2% 99.8%  
241 0.2% 99.7%  
242 0.2% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.2%  
244 0.1% 99.0%  
245 0.2% 98.9%  
246 0.4% 98.7%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.7% 98%  
249 0.2% 97%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.4% 96%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.4% 95%  
254 0.2% 95%  
255 0.2% 94%  
256 0.7% 94%  
257 0.4% 93%  
258 0.8% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 2% 90%  
261 1.3% 89%  
262 1.1% 87%  
263 1.5% 86%  
264 0.6% 85%  
265 1.4% 84%  
266 1.0% 83% Last Result
267 0.6% 82%  
268 1.3% 81%  
269 0.9% 80%  
270 1.4% 79%  
271 2% 78%  
272 0.8% 76%  
273 0.9% 75%  
274 2% 74%  
275 4% 72%  
276 3% 68%  
277 3% 65%  
278 2% 62%  
279 0.7% 60%  
280 2% 59%  
281 1.1% 57%  
282 1.5% 56%  
283 0.7% 55%  
284 0.9% 54%  
285 0.7% 53%  
286 4% 52% Median
287 2% 48%  
288 3% 46%  
289 5% 43%  
290 2% 38%  
291 1.4% 37%  
292 1.2% 35%  
293 0.7% 34%  
294 2% 33%  
295 1.4% 31%  
296 2% 30%  
297 1.4% 28%  
298 2% 27%  
299 2% 25%  
300 2% 23%  
301 2% 21%  
302 1.1% 19%  
303 2% 17%  
304 2% 15%  
305 0.4% 14%  
306 1.1% 13%  
307 0.8% 12%  
308 1.0% 11%  
309 0.8% 10%  
310 1.4% 9%  
311 0.6% 8%  
312 0.8% 7%  
313 0.8% 7%  
314 0.3% 6%  
315 0.9% 5%  
316 0.6% 5%  
317 0.9% 4%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.2% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.2% 1.5%  
325 0.4% 1.3%  
326 0.1% 0.9% Majority
327 0.2% 0.8%  
328 0.2% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.3%  
243 0.2% 99.1%  
244 0.1% 98.9%  
245 0.3% 98.8%  
246 0.5% 98.5%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.3% 97%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.6% 96%  
252 0.4% 95%  
253 0.3% 95%  
254 0.3% 94%  
255 0.2% 94%  
256 0.7% 94%  
257 0.5% 93%  
258 1.0% 93%  
259 3% 92%  
260 1.3% 89%  
261 1.5% 88%  
262 2% 86% Last Result
263 0.7% 85%  
264 2% 84%  
265 0.5% 83%  
266 1.0% 82%  
267 0.7% 81%  
268 1.1% 80%  
269 0.6% 79%  
270 2% 79%  
271 1.3% 77%  
272 1.1% 75%  
273 2% 74%  
274 3% 72%  
275 3% 69%  
276 5% 66%  
277 1.3% 61%  
278 0.6% 60%  
279 0.6% 59%  
280 3% 58%  
281 0.7% 56%  
282 1.3% 55%  
283 0.4% 54%  
284 0.9% 53%  
285 2% 52%  
286 5% 51% Median
287 3% 46%  
288 3% 43%  
289 3% 40%  
290 1.1% 36%  
291 1.4% 35%  
292 0.7% 34%  
293 0.5% 33%  
294 3% 33%  
295 2% 30%  
296 1.3% 28%  
297 1.4% 27%  
298 2% 26%  
299 1.4% 23%  
300 2% 22%  
301 3% 20%  
302 1.2% 17%  
303 2% 16%  
304 1.3% 14%  
305 0.7% 13%  
306 1.0% 12%  
307 1.4% 12%  
308 0.8% 10%  
309 0.9% 9%  
310 1.2% 8%  
311 0.5% 7%  
312 0.5% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.5% 5%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.3%  
325 0.1% 0.9%  
326 0.2% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations