Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 20–21 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.6% 38.1–41.1% 37.7–41.6% 37.3–42.0% 36.6–42.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 36.7% 35.2–38.2% 34.8–38.6% 34.4–39.0% 33.7–39.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.8–10.1% 7.6–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.2% 3.7–4.9% 3.5–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 307 282–323 274–327 268–331 259–338
Labour Party 262 246 235–270 229–278 226–283 219–292
Liberal Democrats 12 20 14–25 13–26 12–27 11–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 52 48–57 46–57 43–57 40–57
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 2–5 2–5 1–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.3%  
261 0.1% 99.2%  
262 0.2% 99.1%  
263 0.2% 98.9%  
264 0.3% 98.7%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.5% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.7% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0.4% 95%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.6% 94%  
277 0.5% 94%  
278 1.1% 93%  
279 0.7% 92%  
280 0.5% 92%  
281 0.9% 91%  
282 1.4% 90%  
283 0.3% 89%  
284 0.9% 89%  
285 0.6% 88%  
286 0.7% 87%  
287 1.2% 86%  
288 0.9% 85%  
289 2% 84%  
290 0.5% 83%  
291 2% 82%  
292 3% 80%  
293 1.0% 77%  
294 0.7% 76%  
295 2% 75%  
296 2% 74%  
297 2% 72%  
298 1.4% 70%  
299 2% 68%  
300 3% 66%  
301 1.2% 63%  
302 2% 62%  
303 1.4% 60%  
304 0.8% 58%  
305 4% 57%  
306 1.4% 53%  
307 2% 52% Median
308 2% 50%  
309 2% 48%  
310 2% 46%  
311 2% 44%  
312 2% 42%  
313 3% 40%  
314 3% 37%  
315 3% 34%  
316 5% 31%  
317 3% 26% Last Result
318 3% 23%  
319 5% 20%  
320 2% 15%  
321 1.1% 14%  
322 2% 12%  
323 1.3% 10%  
324 0.6% 9%  
325 1.2% 8%  
326 1.2% 7% Majority
327 1.0% 6%  
328 0.9% 5%  
329 0.3% 4%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.4%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.2% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.3% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.4%  
221 0% 99.3%  
222 0% 99.3%  
223 0.1% 99.2%  
224 0.7% 99.1%  
225 0.8% 98%  
226 0.7% 98%  
227 0.8% 97%  
228 0.2% 96%  
229 1.3% 96%  
230 1.1% 95%  
231 1.4% 93%  
232 0.7% 92%  
233 0.6% 91%  
234 0.2% 91%  
235 6% 91%  
236 3% 85%  
237 6% 81%  
238 6% 75%  
239 7% 69%  
240 0.9% 62%  
241 1.1% 61%  
242 1.4% 60%  
243 2% 58%  
244 1.3% 56%  
245 1.0% 55%  
246 4% 54% Median
247 3% 50%  
248 2% 47%  
249 3% 44%  
250 2% 41%  
251 0.7% 39%  
252 0.2% 39%  
253 1.2% 38%  
254 2% 37%  
255 4% 35%  
256 3% 31%  
257 2% 29%  
258 1.4% 27%  
259 2% 26%  
260 3% 23%  
261 2% 21%  
262 1.3% 18% Last Result
263 0.8% 17%  
264 0.8% 16%  
265 1.4% 15%  
266 1.4% 14%  
267 0.2% 13%  
268 0.2% 12%  
269 1.2% 12%  
270 2% 11%  
271 1.0% 9%  
272 0.7% 8%  
273 0.6% 8%  
274 0.5% 7%  
275 0.7% 7%  
276 0.2% 6%  
277 0.5% 6%  
278 0.4% 5%  
279 0.2% 5%  
280 0.6% 4%  
281 0.3% 4%  
282 0.7% 4%  
283 0.4% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.6% 2%  
286 0.2% 1.5%  
287 0.1% 1.3%  
288 0.1% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 1.1%  
290 0.3% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0.2% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.7% 99.7%  
12 2% 99.0% Last Result
13 5% 97%  
14 5% 92%  
15 5% 87%  
16 6% 82%  
17 7% 76%  
18 9% 69%  
19 9% 60%  
20 11% 51% Median
21 5% 40%  
22 8% 35%  
23 6% 27%  
24 7% 21%  
25 6% 14%  
26 4% 8%  
27 2% 4%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 99.3% 100% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 98.9%  
42 0.7% 98%  
43 0.2% 98%  
44 0.3% 97%  
45 1.3% 97%  
46 1.3% 96%  
47 2% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 4% 88%  
50 5% 84%  
51 17% 79%  
52 16% 62% Median
53 9% 46%  
54 11% 37%  
55 6% 27%  
56 8% 20%  
57 12% 13%  
58 0.4% 0.4%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.7% 99.7%  
2 5% 99.0%  
3 19% 94%  
4 21% 75% Last Result
5 53% 54% Median
6 0.8% 2%  
7 0.2% 1.1%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 364 97% 338–379 331–383 325–387 315–394
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 359 96% 334–374 327–379 321–382 312–389
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 323 43% 307–348 303–356 299–362 292–371
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 318 35% 303–345 298–352 295–358 287–368
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 327 53% 303–342 296–346 288–350 281–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 303 11% 288–327 284–334 280–342 272–349
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 299 8% 284–323 280–330 276–337 269–345
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 312 13% 285–327 278–332 272–335 262–343
Conservative Party 317 307 7% 282–323 274–327 268–331 259–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 271 0.1% 256–296 251–303 248–309 241–318
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 266 0% 251–292 247–298 243–305 236–315
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 251 0% 239–274 234–282 230–288 224–295
Labour Party 262 246 0% 235–270 229–278 226–283 219–292

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.1% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.1% 99.4%  
318 0.1% 99.3%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.1% 99.0%  
321 0.3% 98.9%  
322 0.2% 98.6%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.2% 98%  
326 0.4% 97% Majority
327 0.5% 97%  
328 0.2% 97%  
329 0.6% 96%  
330 0.4% 96%  
331 0.4% 95%  
332 0.6% 95%  
333 0.7% 94%  
334 0.6% 94%  
335 0.8% 93%  
336 0.8% 92%  
337 0.7% 92%  
338 0.9% 91%  
339 0.8% 90%  
340 0.9% 89%  
341 0.7% 88%  
342 0.5% 87%  
343 1.2% 87%  
344 1.1% 86%  
345 0.9% 85%  
346 0.9% 84%  
347 2% 83%  
348 2% 81%  
349 2% 79%  
350 1.2% 77%  
351 2% 76%  
352 1.0% 74%  
353 2% 73%  
354 2% 71%  
355 2% 70%  
356 3% 68% Last Result
357 2% 65%  
358 2% 64%  
359 2% 62%  
360 1.4% 60%  
361 2% 58%  
362 3% 56%  
363 1.3% 53%  
364 3% 52% Median
365 1.1% 49%  
366 3% 47%  
367 2% 45%  
368 3% 43%  
369 3% 40%  
370 3% 37%  
371 2% 34%  
372 3% 31%  
373 4% 28%  
374 3% 24%  
375 5% 22%  
376 2% 17%  
377 2% 15%  
378 2% 13%  
379 2% 11%  
380 1.3% 9%  
381 0.9% 7%  
382 0.8% 6%  
383 0.7% 6%  
384 1.0% 5%  
385 0.5% 4%  
386 0.8% 3%  
387 0.5% 3%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.2% 1.2%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.8%  
393 0.1% 0.6%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0.1% 99.4%  
314 0.2% 99.3%  
315 0.1% 99.1%  
316 0.2% 99.0%  
317 0.2% 98.8%  
318 0.3% 98.6%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.2% 98%  
321 0.2% 98%  
322 0.6% 97%  
323 0.3% 97%  
324 0.6% 97%  
325 0.2% 96%  
326 0.4% 96% Majority
327 0.7% 95%  
328 0.4% 95%  
329 0.5% 94%  
330 1.0% 94%  
331 0.6% 93%  
332 0.9% 92%  
333 0.7% 91%  
334 0.7% 91%  
335 0.9% 90%  
336 0.6% 89%  
337 1.2% 89%  
338 1.0% 87%  
339 0.5% 86%  
340 0.6% 86%  
341 2% 85%  
342 2% 84%  
343 2% 82%  
344 1.0% 80%  
345 2% 79%  
346 1.5% 77%  
347 1.4% 76%  
348 1.4% 74%  
349 3% 73%  
350 1.4% 70%  
351 2% 69%  
352 2% 67% Last Result
353 3% 66%  
354 2% 63%  
355 1.0% 61%  
356 2% 60%  
357 2% 58%  
358 2% 55%  
359 4% 53% Median
360 1.4% 50%  
361 1.2% 49%  
362 3% 47%  
363 2% 45%  
364 2% 42%  
365 5% 40%  
366 2% 35%  
367 3% 34%  
368 2% 30%  
369 4% 28%  
370 5% 24%  
371 4% 20%  
372 2% 16%  
373 2% 14%  
374 3% 12%  
375 1.1% 9%  
376 1.4% 8%  
377 0.7% 7%  
378 0.9% 6%  
379 1.1% 5%  
380 0.3% 4%  
381 1.0% 4%  
382 0.6% 3%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.4% 1.5%  
386 0.3% 1.1%  
387 0.1% 0.8%  
388 0.1% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.3% 99.0%  
296 0.2% 98.7%  
297 0.3% 98.6%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.5% 98%  
300 0.9% 97%  
301 0.3% 96%  
302 0.9% 96%  
303 1.0% 95%  
304 1.2% 94%  
305 1.2% 93%  
306 0.6% 92%  
307 1.3% 91%  
308 2% 90%  
309 1.1% 88%  
310 2% 86%  
311 5% 85%  
312 3% 80%  
313 3% 77% Last Result
314 5% 74%  
315 3% 69%  
316 3% 66%  
317 3% 63%  
318 2% 60%  
319 2% 58%  
320 2% 56%  
321 2% 54%  
322 2% 52%  
323 2% 50% Median
324 1.4% 48%  
325 4% 47%  
326 0.8% 43% Majority
327 1.4% 42%  
328 2% 40%  
329 1.2% 38%  
330 3% 37%  
331 2% 34%  
332 1.4% 32%  
333 2% 30%  
334 2% 28%  
335 2% 26%  
336 0.7% 25%  
337 1.0% 24%  
338 3% 23%  
339 2% 20%  
340 0.5% 18%  
341 2% 17%  
342 0.9% 16%  
343 1.2% 15%  
344 0.7% 14%  
345 0.6% 13%  
346 0.9% 12%  
347 0.3% 11%  
348 1.4% 11%  
349 0.9% 10%  
350 0.5% 9%  
351 0.7% 8%  
352 1.1% 8%  
353 0.5% 7%  
354 0.6% 6%  
355 0.4% 6%  
356 0.4% 5%  
357 0.2% 5%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.4% 4%  
360 0.5% 3%  
361 0.3% 3%  
362 0.2% 3%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.2% 1.3%  
368 0.2% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 0.9%  
370 0.1% 0.8%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0.3% 99.2%  
291 0.3% 98.9%  
292 0.3% 98.6%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.8% 98%  
296 0.4% 97%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 1.1% 96%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 1.0% 94%  
301 0.8% 93%  
302 1.1% 92%  
303 2% 91%  
304 1.4% 88%  
305 2% 87%  
306 2% 85%  
307 4% 83%  
308 2% 79%  
309 5% 78% Last Result
310 6% 73%  
311 2% 67%  
312 2% 65%  
313 3% 63%  
314 2% 60%  
315 2% 58%  
316 3% 56%  
317 2% 53%  
318 2% 51% Median
319 1.4% 50%  
320 3% 48%  
321 2% 45%  
322 2% 43%  
323 1.1% 41%  
324 2% 40%  
325 4% 39%  
326 1.4% 35% Majority
327 2% 33%  
328 1.0% 31%  
329 2% 30%  
330 3% 28%  
331 0.9% 26%  
332 1.1% 25%  
333 2% 24%  
334 2% 21%  
335 1.0% 19%  
336 0.7% 18%  
337 1.4% 17%  
338 2% 16%  
339 0.6% 14%  
340 0.9% 14%  
341 0.7% 13%  
342 0.5% 12%  
343 0.5% 12%  
344 0.7% 11%  
345 1.4% 10%  
346 0.7% 9%  
347 0.6% 8%  
348 0.7% 8%  
349 0.9% 7%  
350 0.5% 6%  
351 0.2% 5%  
352 0.3% 5%  
353 0.8% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.4% 4%  
356 0.4% 3%  
357 0.2% 3%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.5%  
363 0.2% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.1% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.7%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.2% 99.2%  
285 0.3% 99.0%  
286 0.5% 98.7%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.3% 97%  
290 0.2% 97%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.5% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 0.5% 96%  
296 0.8% 95%  
297 0.4% 94%  
298 0.7% 94%  
299 0.7% 93%  
300 0.8% 92%  
301 0.6% 92%  
302 0.7% 91%  
303 1.0% 90%  
304 0.8% 89%  
305 0.8% 89%  
306 1.2% 88%  
307 1.1% 87%  
308 1.0% 86%  
309 2% 85%  
310 1.3% 83%  
311 0.9% 81%  
312 0.7% 81%  
313 1.1% 80%  
314 2% 79%  
315 3% 77%  
316 2% 74%  
317 3% 71%  
318 2% 68%  
319 3% 67%  
320 3% 64%  
321 2% 60%  
322 1.4% 59%  
323 3% 57%  
324 0.6% 55%  
325 1.3% 54%  
326 2% 53% Majority
327 1.3% 51% Median
328 2% 50%  
329 2% 48% Last Result
330 2% 46%  
331 2% 44%  
332 3% 41%  
333 3% 38%  
334 2% 35%  
335 5% 33%  
336 5% 27%  
337 4% 23%  
338 2% 19%  
339 3% 17%  
340 2% 14%  
341 2% 12%  
342 2% 10%  
343 0.9% 8%  
344 0.8% 7%  
345 1.0% 7%  
346 1.0% 6%  
347 0.8% 5%  
348 0.7% 4%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.5% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.6% 1.5%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0% 0.5%  
358 0.2% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.5%  
274 0.1% 99.4%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.3%  
277 0.6% 99.2%  
278 0.4% 98.5%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.5% 97%  
282 0.7% 97%  
283 0.8% 96%  
284 1.0% 95%  
285 1.0% 94%  
286 0.8% 93%  
287 0.9% 93%  
288 2% 92%  
289 2% 90%  
290 2% 88%  
291 3% 86%  
292 2% 83%  
293 4% 81%  
294 5% 77%  
295 5% 72%  
296 2% 67%  
297 3% 65%  
298 3% 62%  
299 2% 59%  
300 2% 56%  
301 2% 54% Last Result
302 2% 52%  
303 1.3% 50% Median
304 2% 49%  
305 1.3% 47%  
306 0.6% 46%  
307 3% 45%  
308 1.4% 43%  
309 2% 41%  
310 3% 40%  
311 3% 36%  
312 2% 33%  
313 3% 32%  
314 2% 29%  
315 3% 26%  
316 2% 23%  
317 1.1% 21%  
318 0.7% 20%  
319 0.9% 19%  
320 1.3% 19%  
321 2% 17%  
322 1.0% 15%  
323 1.1% 14%  
324 1.2% 13%  
325 0.8% 12%  
326 0.8% 11% Majority
327 1.0% 11%  
328 0.7% 10%  
329 0.6% 9%  
330 0.8% 8%  
331 0.7% 8%  
332 0.7% 7%  
333 0.4% 6%  
334 0.8% 6%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0.3% 4%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 0.3% 3%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.3% 3%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.5% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.3%  
272 0.5% 99.2%  
273 0.3% 98.8%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 0.6% 96%  
279 0.5% 96%  
280 0.9% 95%  
281 1.3% 95%  
282 1.3% 93%  
283 1.1% 92%  
284 2% 91%  
285 2% 89%  
286 2% 87%  
287 3% 85%  
288 3% 82%  
289 2% 80%  
290 4% 77%  
291 6% 74%  
292 3% 67%  
293 4% 65%  
294 2% 60%  
295 3% 58%  
296 3% 55%  
297 1.3% 53% Last Result
298 1.3% 51% Median
299 2% 50%  
300 2% 48%  
301 0.6% 47%  
302 3% 46%  
303 1.3% 43%  
304 1.3% 42%  
305 3% 40%  
306 2% 38%  
307 2% 35%  
308 3% 33%  
309 2% 30%  
310 2% 28%  
311 3% 26%  
312 2% 23%  
313 1.1% 21%  
314 0.7% 20%  
315 1.1% 19%  
316 1.1% 18%  
317 0.8% 17%  
318 1.3% 16%  
319 1.1% 15%  
320 0.7% 14%  
321 1.4% 13%  
322 1.0% 11%  
323 0.7% 10%  
324 0.8% 10%  
325 1.0% 9%  
326 0.6% 8% Majority
327 0.5% 7%  
328 0.8% 7%  
329 0.8% 6%  
330 0.3% 5%  
331 0.5% 5%  
332 0.2% 4%  
333 0.5% 4%  
334 0.2% 4%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.2% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.5%  
264 0.1% 99.3%  
265 0.1% 99.3%  
266 0.2% 99.2%  
267 0.2% 99.0%  
268 0.2% 98.7%  
269 0.2% 98.5%  
270 0.3% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.2% 97%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.4% 97%  
276 0.6% 96%  
277 0.8% 96%  
278 0.3% 95%  
279 0.2% 95%  
280 0.5% 95%  
281 0.9% 94%  
282 0.7% 93%  
283 0.6% 92%  
284 0.7% 92%  
285 1.4% 91%  
286 0.7% 90%  
287 0.5% 89%  
288 0.5% 88%  
289 0.7% 88%  
290 0.9% 87%  
291 0.6% 86%  
292 2% 86%  
293 1.4% 84%  
294 0.7% 83%  
295 1.0% 82%  
296 2% 81%  
297 2% 79%  
298 1.1% 76%  
299 0.9% 75%  
300 3% 74%  
301 2% 72%  
302 1.0% 70%  
303 2% 69%  
304 1.4% 67%  
305 4% 65%  
306 2% 61%  
307 1.1% 60%  
308 2% 59%  
309 2% 57%  
310 3% 55%  
311 1.4% 52%  
312 2% 50% Median
313 2% 49%  
314 3% 47%  
315 2% 44%  
316 2% 42%  
317 3% 40%  
318 2% 37%  
319 2% 35%  
320 6% 33%  
321 5% 27% Last Result
322 2% 22%  
323 4% 21%  
324 2% 17%  
325 2% 15%  
326 1.3% 13% Majority
327 2% 12%  
328 1.1% 9%  
329 0.9% 8%  
330 1.0% 7%  
331 0.7% 6%  
332 1.1% 6%  
333 1.0% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.4%  
340 0.3% 1.1%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.1% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0.1% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.2% 99.5%  
260 0.1% 99.3%  
261 0.1% 99.2%  
262 0.2% 99.1%  
263 0.2% 98.9%  
264 0.3% 98.7%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.5% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.7% 96%  
273 0.2% 96%  
274 0.4% 95%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.6% 94%  
277 0.5% 94%  
278 1.1% 93%  
279 0.7% 92%  
280 0.5% 92%  
281 0.9% 91%  
282 1.4% 90%  
283 0.3% 89%  
284 0.9% 89%  
285 0.6% 88%  
286 0.7% 87%  
287 1.2% 86%  
288 0.9% 85%  
289 2% 84%  
290 0.5% 83%  
291 2% 82%  
292 3% 80%  
293 1.0% 77%  
294 0.7% 76%  
295 2% 75%  
296 2% 74%  
297 2% 72%  
298 1.4% 70%  
299 2% 68%  
300 3% 66%  
301 1.2% 63%  
302 2% 62%  
303 1.4% 60%  
304 0.8% 58%  
305 4% 57%  
306 1.4% 53%  
307 2% 52% Median
308 2% 50%  
309 2% 48%  
310 2% 46%  
311 2% 44%  
312 2% 42%  
313 3% 40%  
314 3% 37%  
315 3% 34%  
316 5% 31%  
317 3% 26% Last Result
318 3% 23%  
319 5% 20%  
320 2% 15%  
321 1.1% 14%  
322 2% 12%  
323 1.3% 10%  
324 0.6% 9%  
325 1.2% 8%  
326 1.2% 7% Majority
327 1.0% 6%  
328 0.9% 5%  
329 0.3% 4%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.4%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.2% 1.0%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.5%  
242 0.1% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.3%  
244 0.3% 99.2%  
245 0.4% 98.9%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.4% 98%  
248 0.6% 98%  
249 1.0% 97%  
250 0.3% 96%  
251 1.1% 96%  
252 0.9% 95%  
253 0.7% 94%  
254 1.4% 93%  
255 1.1% 92%  
256 3% 91%  
257 2% 88%  
258 2% 86%  
259 4% 84%  
260 5% 80%  
261 4% 76%  
262 2% 72%  
263 3% 69%  
264 2% 66%  
265 5% 65%  
266 2% 60%  
267 2% 58%  
268 3% 55%  
269 1.2% 53%  
270 1.4% 51%  
271 4% 50% Median
272 2% 47%  
273 2% 45%  
274 2% 42%  
275 1.0% 40%  
276 2% 39%  
277 3% 37%  
278 2% 34% Last Result
279 2% 33%  
280 1.4% 31%  
281 3% 30%  
282 1.4% 27%  
283 1.4% 26%  
284 1.5% 24%  
285 2% 23%  
286 1.0% 21%  
287 2% 20%  
288 2% 18%  
289 2% 16%  
290 0.6% 15%  
291 0.5% 14%  
292 1.0% 14%  
293 1.2% 13%  
294 0.6% 11%  
295 0.9% 11%  
296 0.7% 10%  
297 0.7% 9%  
298 0.9% 9%  
299 0.6% 8%  
300 1.0% 7%  
301 0.5% 6%  
302 0.4% 6%  
303 0.7% 5%  
304 0.4% 5%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 0.6% 4%  
307 0.3% 3%  
308 0.6% 3%  
309 0.2% 3%  
310 0.2% 2%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.2% 1.4%  
314 0.2% 1.2%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.2% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.7%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.3%  
239 0.2% 99.2%  
240 0.3% 99.1%  
241 0.4% 98.8%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.8% 97%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 1.0% 96%  
247 0.7% 95%  
248 0.8% 94%  
249 0.9% 94%  
250 1.3% 93%  
251 2% 91%  
252 2% 89%  
253 2% 87%  
254 2% 85%  
255 5% 83%  
256 3% 78%  
257 4% 76%  
258 3% 72%  
259 2% 69%  
260 3% 66%  
261 3% 63%  
262 3% 60%  
263 2% 57%  
264 3% 55%  
265 1.1% 52%  
266 3% 51% Median
267 1.3% 48%  
268 3% 47%  
269 2% 44%  
270 1.4% 42%  
271 2% 40%  
272 2% 38%  
273 2% 36%  
274 3% 35% Last Result
275 2% 32%  
276 1.5% 30%  
277 2% 29%  
278 1.0% 27%  
279 2% 26%  
280 1.2% 24%  
281 2% 23%  
282 2% 21%  
283 2% 19%  
284 0.9% 17%  
285 0.9% 16%  
286 1.1% 15%  
287 1.2% 14%  
288 0.5% 13%  
289 0.7% 13%  
290 0.9% 12%  
291 0.8% 11%  
292 0.9% 10%  
293 0.8% 9%  
294 0.8% 8%  
295 0.8% 8%  
296 0.6% 7%  
297 0.7% 6%  
298 0.6% 6%  
299 0.4% 5%  
300 0.4% 5%  
301 0.6% 4%  
302 0.2% 4%  
303 0.5% 3%  
304 0.4% 3%  
305 0.2% 3%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.2% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.4%  
310 0.1% 1.1%  
311 0.2% 1.0%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.2% 99.6%  
225 0.1% 99.4%  
226 0% 99.3%  
227 0.1% 99.3%  
228 0.5% 99.2%  
229 1.1% 98.7%  
230 0.9% 98%  
231 0.4% 97%  
232 0.7% 96%  
233 0.5% 96%  
234 1.2% 95%  
235 1.3% 94%  
236 1.4% 93%  
237 0.4% 91%  
238 0.1% 91%  
239 0.9% 91%  
240 8% 90%  
241 6% 82%  
242 9% 77%  
243 5% 67%  
244 2% 62%  
245 0.5% 61%  
246 2% 60%  
247 2% 58%  
248 2% 57%  
249 1.2% 55%  
250 1.4% 54%  
251 4% 52% Median
252 3% 48%  
253 2% 46%  
254 3% 43%  
255 1.3% 40%  
256 0.2% 39%  
257 0.1% 39%  
258 2% 38%  
259 5% 37%  
260 2% 31%  
261 0.7% 29%  
262 2% 29%  
263 3% 27%  
264 2% 24%  
265 4% 22%  
266 0.8% 18% Last Result
267 0.7% 17%  
268 0.9% 16%  
269 2% 15%  
270 0.4% 13%  
271 0.2% 13%  
272 0.1% 12%  
273 1.0% 12%  
274 2% 11%  
275 2% 10%  
276 0.4% 8%  
277 0.5% 8%  
278 0.7% 7%  
279 0.2% 6%  
280 0.6% 6%  
281 0.3% 6%  
282 0.6% 5%  
283 0.4% 5%  
284 0.5% 4%  
285 0.3% 4%  
286 0.3% 4%  
287 0.8% 3%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.5% 2%  
290 0.2% 2%  
291 0.1% 1.3%  
292 0.2% 1.3%  
293 0.3% 1.1%  
294 0.2% 0.8%  
295 0.1% 0.6%  
296 0.1% 0.5%  
297 0.1% 0.3%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0.1% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
209 0% 100%  
210 0% 99.9%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.3% 99.7%  
220 0.1% 99.4%  
221 0% 99.3%  
222 0% 99.3%  
223 0.1% 99.2%  
224 0.7% 99.1%  
225 0.8% 98%  
226 0.7% 98%  
227 0.8% 97%  
228 0.2% 96%  
229 1.3% 96%  
230 1.1% 95%  
231 1.4% 93%  
232 0.7% 92%  
233 0.6% 91%  
234 0.2% 91%  
235 6% 91%  
236 3% 85%  
237 6% 81%  
238 6% 75%  
239 7% 69%  
240 0.9% 62%  
241 1.1% 61%  
242 1.4% 60%  
243 2% 58%  
244 1.3% 56%  
245 1.0% 55%  
246 4% 54% Median
247 3% 50%  
248 2% 47%  
249 3% 44%  
250 2% 41%  
251 0.7% 39%  
252 0.2% 39%  
253 1.2% 38%  
254 2% 37%  
255 4% 35%  
256 3% 31%  
257 2% 29%  
258 1.4% 27%  
259 2% 26%  
260 3% 23%  
261 2% 21%  
262 1.3% 18% Last Result
263 0.8% 17%  
264 0.8% 16%  
265 1.4% 15%  
266 1.4% 14%  
267 0.2% 13%  
268 0.2% 12%  
269 1.2% 12%  
270 2% 11%  
271 1.0% 9%  
272 0.7% 8%  
273 0.6% 8%  
274 0.5% 7%  
275 0.7% 7%  
276 0.2% 6%  
277 0.5% 6%  
278 0.4% 5%  
279 0.2% 5%  
280 0.6% 4%  
281 0.3% 4%  
282 0.7% 4%  
283 0.4% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.6% 2%  
286 0.2% 1.5%  
287 0.1% 1.3%  
288 0.1% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 1.1%  
290 0.3% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0.2% 0.5%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations