Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 28–29 August 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.4% 37.9–41.0% 37.5–41.4% 37.1–41.8% 36.4–42.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.4% 35.9–38.9% 35.5–39.4% 35.1–39.7% 34.4–40.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 297 273–322 268–327 263–330 255–337
Labour Party 262 260 237–279 232–284 230–292 225–301
Liberal Democrats 12 26 21–28 21–29 20–30 16–32
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 47 38–51 32–52 27–52 16–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 2–5 1–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.3% 99.2%  
259 0.3% 98.9%  
260 0.3% 98.6%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.3% 97%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.4% 97%  
267 1.2% 96%  
268 0.5% 95%  
269 0.7% 95%  
270 0.7% 94%  
271 0.5% 93%  
272 2% 93%  
273 0.7% 91%  
274 1.1% 90%  
275 0.3% 89%  
276 0.3% 88%  
277 2% 88%  
278 1.1% 86%  
279 0.7% 85%  
280 0.2% 84%  
281 2% 84%  
282 1.2% 83%  
283 2% 81%  
284 1.4% 79%  
285 2% 78%  
286 0.3% 76%  
287 4% 76%  
288 0.5% 72%  
289 4% 71%  
290 0.8% 67%  
291 3% 66%  
292 3% 63%  
293 0.4% 61%  
294 6% 60%  
295 0.7% 54%  
296 3% 54%  
297 1.4% 51% Median
298 2% 49%  
299 2% 48%  
300 0.7% 46%  
301 0.7% 45%  
302 3% 44%  
303 2% 41%  
304 0.7% 39%  
305 2% 38%  
306 1.2% 37%  
307 0.8% 35%  
308 0.5% 35%  
309 3% 34%  
310 2% 31%  
311 1.2% 29%  
312 1.4% 28%  
313 2% 27%  
314 2% 24%  
315 2% 23%  
316 0.6% 21%  
317 2% 20% Last Result
318 0.3% 18%  
319 2% 18%  
320 2% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 2% 11%  
323 0.3% 9%  
324 0.7% 9%  
325 0.8% 8%  
326 2% 7% Majority
327 2% 5%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.7% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.7% 1.4%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.2% 99.8%  
225 0.6% 99.5%  
226 0.2% 99.0%  
227 0.1% 98.8%  
228 0.1% 98.7%  
229 0.2% 98.7%  
230 2% 98%  
231 2% 97%  
232 1.2% 95%  
233 0.6% 94%  
234 0.6% 93%  
235 1.2% 93%  
236 1.1% 92%  
237 2% 90%  
238 6% 88%  
239 4% 82%  
240 2% 78%  
241 0.6% 76%  
242 1.1% 75%  
243 0.2% 74%  
244 0.4% 74%  
245 2% 73%  
246 0.7% 72%  
247 3% 71%  
248 1.5% 68%  
249 2% 66%  
250 2% 64%  
251 2% 62%  
252 0.3% 61%  
253 0.9% 60%  
254 3% 59%  
255 1.4% 56%  
256 0.9% 55%  
257 1.4% 54%  
258 0.6% 53%  
259 1.3% 52%  
260 2% 51% Median
261 7% 49%  
262 0.5% 42% Last Result
263 1.5% 42%  
264 5% 40%  
265 4% 35%  
266 3% 32%  
267 5% 29%  
268 0.3% 24%  
269 2% 23%  
270 1.3% 21%  
271 0.6% 20%  
272 0.4% 19%  
273 0.9% 19%  
274 0.5% 18%  
275 0.9% 18%  
276 1.1% 17%  
277 2% 15%  
278 3% 14%  
279 2% 10%  
280 0.3% 8%  
281 1.3% 8%  
282 0.8% 7%  
283 0.7% 6%  
284 0.5% 5%  
285 0.2% 5%  
286 0.1% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.5% 4%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.5% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.1% 2%  
296 0.5% 2%  
297 0.2% 1.3%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.8%  
301 0.1% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.5%  
303 0% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 0.4% 99.4%  
18 0.5% 99.0%  
19 0.8% 98%  
20 2% 98%  
21 6% 96%  
22 4% 90%  
23 3% 85%  
24 4% 82%  
25 9% 78%  
26 20% 69% Median
27 22% 49%  
28 20% 28%  
29 5% 8%  
30 1.4% 3%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.9% 99.9% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0.1% 99.8%  
14 0.2% 99.8%  
15 0.1% 99.6%  
16 0% 99.5%  
17 0.1% 99.5%  
18 0% 99.4%  
19 0.2% 99.4%  
20 0% 99.2%  
21 0.2% 99.2%  
22 0.1% 99.0%  
23 0.3% 98.9%  
24 0.3% 98.6%  
25 0.1% 98%  
26 0.6% 98%  
27 0.9% 98%  
28 0.4% 97%  
29 0.6% 96%  
30 0.2% 96%  
31 0.1% 96%  
32 0.9% 95%  
33 0.3% 95%  
34 0.5% 94%  
35 0.8% 94% Last Result
36 0.3% 93%  
37 0.4% 93%  
38 7% 92%  
39 2% 85%  
40 9% 83%  
41 5% 74%  
42 3% 70%  
43 1.4% 67%  
44 3% 66%  
45 7% 63%  
46 3% 56%  
47 9% 53% Median
48 11% 44%  
49 1.0% 34%  
50 17% 33%  
51 7% 15%  
52 6% 8%  
53 0.4% 2%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 3% 98.6%  
2 13% 95%  
3 44% 82% Median
4 9% 38% Last Result
5 29% 30%  
6 0.2% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 345 88% 325–370 318–374 311–377 302–382
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 342 84% 320–366 315–369 308–373 299–378
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 333 62% 308–357 303–362 300–367 293–375
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 330 57% 303–353 299–358 296–363 290–371
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 323 46% 299–347 295–351 290–354 282–361
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 307 14% 283–331 279–335 276–340 269–348
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 303 11% 278–326 275–331 273–337 266–344
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 300 12% 277–327 272–331 267–334 259–340
Conservative Party 317 297 7% 273–322 268–327 263–330 255–337
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 288 2% 264–310 261–315 257–322 252–331
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 285 0.9% 260–305 256–312 253–319 248–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 263 0% 241–283 236–287 233–296 228–304
Labour Party 262 260 0% 237–279 232–284 230–292 225–301

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.3% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.3%  
304 0.1% 99.2%  
305 0.1% 99.1%  
306 0.3% 98.9%  
307 0.3% 98.6%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 0.3% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.2% 97%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.2% 96%  
316 0.4% 96%  
317 0.6% 96%  
318 0.3% 95%  
319 0.7% 95%  
320 0.4% 94%  
321 0.3% 94%  
322 2% 93%  
323 0.2% 92%  
324 0.7% 92%  
325 3% 91%  
326 2% 88% Majority
327 0.7% 86%  
328 0.5% 85%  
329 0.9% 85%  
330 2% 84%  
331 0.9% 82%  
332 1.3% 81%  
333 0.7% 80%  
334 2% 79%  
335 5% 77%  
336 2% 72%  
337 0.7% 71%  
338 4% 70%  
339 2% 65%  
340 3% 63%  
341 0.9% 60%  
342 5% 59%  
343 2% 54%  
344 1.4% 52%  
345 1.4% 51%  
346 1.5% 49%  
347 2% 48% Median
348 2% 46%  
349 2% 45%  
350 0.5% 43%  
351 3% 42%  
352 0.6% 39%  
353 2% 38%  
354 0.9% 37%  
355 2% 36%  
356 1.1% 34% Last Result
357 2% 33%  
358 1.1% 31%  
359 1.1% 30%  
360 1.4% 29%  
361 0.8% 28%  
362 2% 27%  
363 2% 25%  
364 3% 23%  
365 2% 20%  
366 3% 19%  
367 3% 16%  
368 0.9% 13%  
369 0.7% 12%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 10%  
372 0.6% 8%  
373 2% 7%  
374 2% 5%  
375 0.2% 4%  
376 0.8% 3%  
377 0.4% 3%  
378 0.8% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.2% 0.9%  
381 0.2% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.2%  
302 0.3% 99.1%  
303 0.4% 98.7%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.3% 97%  
310 0.2% 97%  
311 0.3% 97%  
312 0.2% 96%  
313 0.4% 96%  
314 0.3% 96%  
315 0.6% 95%  
316 0.9% 95%  
317 1.3% 94%  
318 0.2% 93%  
319 0.7% 92%  
320 2% 92%  
321 2% 90%  
322 0.7% 88%  
323 2% 87%  
324 0.4% 85%  
325 0.7% 85%  
326 0.6% 84% Majority
327 2% 84%  
328 1.0% 82%  
329 3% 81%  
330 0.8% 79%  
331 0.6% 78%  
332 5% 77%  
333 1.4% 72%  
334 2% 71%  
335 2% 68%  
336 2% 66%  
337 4% 64%  
338 1.2% 60%  
339 5% 59%  
340 2% 54%  
341 1.1% 52%  
342 2% 51%  
343 2% 49%  
344 2% 47% Median
345 1.1% 44%  
346 1.2% 43%  
347 1.1% 42%  
348 0.3% 41%  
349 2% 41%  
350 1.2% 38%  
351 0.8% 37%  
352 3% 36% Last Result
353 1.0% 34%  
354 2% 33%  
355 0.8% 30%  
356 2% 30%  
357 0.7% 28%  
358 0.7% 27%  
359 2% 27%  
360 2% 25%  
361 4% 23%  
362 3% 18%  
363 2% 15%  
364 0.6% 13%  
365 1.2% 13%  
366 1.5% 11%  
367 2% 10%  
368 2% 8%  
369 1.2% 6%  
370 0.3% 5%  
371 1.0% 4%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.8% 3%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.7% 2%  
376 0.7% 1.4%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0.2% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.5%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.7% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 98.6%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.2% 97%  
302 0.5% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 2% 95%  
305 0.8% 93%  
306 0.7% 92%  
307 0.3% 91%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 89%  
310 2% 86%  
311 2% 84%  
312 0.3% 82%  
313 2% 82% Last Result
314 0.6% 80%  
315 2% 79%  
316 2% 77%  
317 2% 76%  
318 1.4% 73%  
319 1.2% 72%  
320 2% 71%  
321 3% 69%  
322 0.5% 66%  
323 0.8% 65%  
324 1.2% 65%  
325 2% 63%  
326 0.7% 62% Majority
327 2% 61%  
328 3% 59%  
329 0.7% 56%  
330 0.7% 55%  
331 2% 54%  
332 2% 52%  
333 1.4% 51%  
334 3% 49%  
335 0.7% 46%  
336 6% 46% Median
337 0.4% 40%  
338 3% 39%  
339 3% 37%  
340 0.8% 34%  
341 4% 33%  
342 0.5% 29%  
343 4% 28%  
344 0.3% 24%  
345 2% 24%  
346 1.4% 22%  
347 2% 21%  
348 1.2% 19%  
349 2% 17%  
350 0.2% 16%  
351 0.7% 16%  
352 1.1% 15%  
353 2% 14%  
354 0.3% 12%  
355 0.3% 12%  
356 1.1% 11%  
357 0.7% 10%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.5% 7%  
360 0.7% 7%  
361 0.7% 6%  
362 0.5% 5%  
363 1.2% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.3% 3%  
366 0.3% 3%  
367 0.3% 3%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.2% 2%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.4%  
372 0.3% 1.1%  
373 0.1% 0.8%  
374 0.2% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.5%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.6% 99.2%  
294 0.2% 98.6%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.6% 97%  
298 0.4% 97%  
299 2% 96%  
300 0.6% 94%  
301 1.0% 94%  
302 1.1% 93%  
303 2% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 1.4% 88%  
306 1.2% 86%  
307 1.5% 85%  
308 3% 84%  
309 0.4% 81% Last Result
310 2% 81%  
311 0.5% 79%  
312 2% 79%  
313 2% 77%  
314 2% 75%  
315 1.4% 73%  
316 1.2% 71%  
317 2% 70%  
318 1.1% 68%  
319 0.7% 67%  
320 3% 66%  
321 0.8% 63%  
322 2% 63%  
323 0.7% 60%  
324 1.4% 60%  
325 1.1% 58%  
326 3% 57% Majority
327 1.0% 55%  
328 0.7% 54%  
329 3% 53%  
330 2% 50%  
331 2% 48%  
332 2% 46%  
333 4% 44% Median
334 0.9% 40%  
335 3% 39%  
336 3% 36%  
337 0.6% 33%  
338 4% 33%  
339 0.6% 29%  
340 4% 28%  
341 0.8% 24%  
342 1.4% 23%  
343 1.3% 22%  
344 3% 21%  
345 0.3% 18%  
346 2% 17%  
347 0.8% 16%  
348 1.0% 15%  
349 2% 14%  
350 0.3% 12%  
351 0.8% 12%  
352 0.9% 11%  
353 2% 10%  
354 0.8% 8%  
355 0.2% 7%  
356 0.6% 7%  
357 0.7% 6%  
358 1.1% 6%  
359 0.7% 5%  
360 0.4% 4%  
361 0.5% 3%  
362 0.2% 3%  
363 0.3% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.2% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.4%  
369 0.2% 1.2%  
370 0.3% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.2% 98.9%  
287 0.3% 98.7%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 0.2% 97%  
293 0.6% 97%  
294 1.0% 96%  
295 0.6% 95%  
296 1.2% 95%  
297 0.6% 94%  
298 0.6% 93%  
299 3% 92%  
300 0.9% 89%  
301 0.5% 89%  
302 0.2% 88%  
303 2% 88%  
304 0.5% 86%  
305 2% 86%  
306 0.4% 84%  
307 0.9% 84%  
308 1.2% 83%  
309 0.5% 82%  
310 2% 81%  
311 1.1% 79%  
312 2% 78%  
313 4% 76%  
314 0.6% 72%  
315 2% 71%  
316 4% 70%  
317 1.5% 66%  
318 3% 64%  
319 2% 61%  
320 0.4% 59%  
321 3% 58%  
322 5% 56%  
323 0.5% 50% Median
324 1.3% 50%  
325 3% 49%  
326 2% 46% Majority
327 0.4% 44%  
328 2% 44%  
329 1.1% 42% Last Result
330 4% 41%  
331 1.3% 37%  
332 0.5% 35%  
333 1.3% 35%  
334 0.9% 34%  
335 1.5% 33%  
336 2% 31%  
337 3% 29%  
338 1.3% 26%  
339 1.4% 25%  
340 0.9% 23%  
341 2% 22%  
342 2% 21%  
343 2% 19%  
344 1.1% 17%  
345 2% 16%  
346 1.4% 14%  
347 4% 13%  
348 2% 8%  
349 0.9% 6%  
350 0.4% 6%  
351 0.2% 5%  
352 2% 5%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.4% 2%  
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.1% 1.1%  
359 0.1% 1.0%  
360 0.2% 0.9%  
361 0.4% 0.8%  
362 0.2% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.2% 99.8%  
269 0.4% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.2%  
271 0.1% 99.1%  
272 0.1% 99.0%  
273 0.4% 98.9%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 0.7% 97%  
278 2% 97%  
279 0.2% 95%  
280 0.4% 95%  
281 0.9% 94%  
282 2% 94%  
283 4% 92%  
284 1.4% 87%  
285 2% 86%  
286 1.1% 84%  
287 2% 83%  
288 2% 81%  
289 2% 79%  
290 0.9% 78%  
291 1.4% 77%  
292 1.3% 75%  
293 3% 74%  
294 2% 71%  
295 1.5% 69%  
296 0.9% 67%  
297 1.3% 66%  
298 0.5% 65%  
299 1.3% 65%  
300 4% 63%  
301 1.1% 59% Last Result
302 2% 58%  
303 0.5% 56%  
304 2% 56%  
305 3% 54%  
306 1.3% 51%  
307 0.5% 50%  
308 5% 50%  
309 3% 44%  
310 0.4% 42% Median
311 2% 41%  
312 3% 39%  
313 1.5% 36%  
314 4% 34%  
315 2% 30%  
316 0.6% 29%  
317 4% 28%  
318 2% 24%  
319 1.1% 22%  
320 2% 21%  
321 0.5% 19%  
322 1.2% 18%  
323 0.9% 17%  
324 0.4% 16%  
325 2% 16%  
326 0.5% 14% Majority
327 2% 14%  
328 0.2% 12%  
329 0.5% 12%  
330 0.9% 11%  
331 3% 11%  
332 0.6% 8%  
333 0.6% 7%  
334 1.2% 6%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 1.0% 5%  
337 0.6% 4%  
338 0.2% 3%  
339 0.2% 3%  
340 0.3% 3%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.2% 99.8%  
266 0.3% 99.5%  
267 0.3% 99.2%  
268 0.1% 99.0%  
269 0% 98.9%  
270 0.6% 98.8%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.4% 98%  
273 0.5% 98%  
274 0.6% 97%  
275 1.5% 96%  
276 0.7% 95%  
277 0.4% 94%  
278 4% 94%  
279 0.9% 89%  
280 2% 89%  
281 2% 86%  
282 0.8% 84%  
283 2% 84%  
284 1.1% 82%  
285 3% 81%  
286 1.2% 78%  
287 0.7% 77%  
288 2% 76%  
289 2% 74%  
290 3% 72%  
291 0.6% 70%  
292 0.9% 69%  
293 2% 68%  
294 1.4% 66%  
295 2% 65%  
296 1.4% 62%  
297 1.2% 61% Last Result
298 2% 60%  
299 2% 58%  
300 1.0% 56%  
301 1.3% 55%  
302 2% 54%  
303 2% 52%  
304 3% 50%  
305 4% 47%  
306 2% 44%  
307 1.0% 42% Median
308 2% 41%  
309 3% 38%  
310 0.9% 35%  
311 4% 34%  
312 1.2% 30%  
313 1.0% 29%  
314 5% 28%  
315 2% 23%  
316 1.1% 21%  
317 2% 20%  
318 0.8% 18%  
319 0.6% 18%  
320 2% 17%  
321 0.4% 15%  
322 1.2% 15%  
323 2% 14%  
324 0.3% 12%  
325 0.7% 12%  
326 2% 11% Majority
327 1.0% 9%  
328 0.5% 8%  
329 0.9% 7%  
330 0.9% 7%  
331 1.2% 6%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.5% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.2% 3%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.2% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0.1% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.3% 99.4%  
261 0.2% 99.1%  
262 0.3% 98.8%  
263 0.2% 98.6%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.4% 98%  
267 0.3% 98%  
268 0.2% 97%  
269 0.5% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.7% 96%  
272 1.1% 95%  
273 0.7% 94%  
274 0.7% 94%  
275 0.2% 93%  
276 0.8% 93%  
277 2% 92%  
278 0.9% 90%  
279 0.8% 89%  
280 0.3% 88%  
281 2% 88%  
282 1.0% 86%  
283 0.8% 85%  
284 2% 84%  
285 0.3% 83%  
286 3% 82%  
287 1.3% 79%  
288 1.4% 78%  
289 0.8% 77%  
290 4% 76%  
291 0.6% 72%  
292 4% 71%  
293 0.6% 67%  
294 3% 67%  
295 3% 64%  
296 0.9% 61%  
297 4% 60%  
298 2% 56%  
299 2% 54%  
300 2% 52% Median
301 3% 50%  
302 0.7% 47%  
303 1.0% 46%  
304 3% 45%  
305 1.1% 43%  
306 1.4% 42%  
307 0.7% 40%  
308 2% 40%  
309 0.8% 37%  
310 3% 37%  
311 0.7% 34%  
312 1.2% 33%  
313 2% 32%  
314 1.2% 30%  
315 1.4% 29%  
316 2% 27%  
317 2% 25%  
318 2% 23%  
319 0.5% 21%  
320 2% 21%  
321 0.4% 19% Last Result
322 3% 19%  
323 1.5% 16%  
324 1.2% 15%  
325 1.4% 14%  
326 2% 12% Majority
327 2% 10%  
328 1.1% 8%  
329 1.0% 7%  
330 0.6% 6%  
331 2% 6%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.6% 3%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.6% 1.4%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.2% 0.5%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0.1% 99.7%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.5%  
256 0.2% 99.5%  
257 0.1% 99.3%  
258 0.3% 99.2%  
259 0.3% 98.9%  
260 0.3% 98.6%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.3% 97%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.4% 97%  
267 1.2% 96%  
268 0.5% 95%  
269 0.7% 95%  
270 0.7% 94%  
271 0.5% 93%  
272 2% 93%  
273 0.7% 91%  
274 1.1% 90%  
275 0.3% 89%  
276 0.3% 88%  
277 2% 88%  
278 1.1% 86%  
279 0.7% 85%  
280 0.2% 84%  
281 2% 84%  
282 1.2% 83%  
283 2% 81%  
284 1.4% 79%  
285 2% 78%  
286 0.3% 76%  
287 4% 76%  
288 0.5% 72%  
289 4% 71%  
290 0.8% 67%  
291 3% 66%  
292 3% 63%  
293 0.4% 61%  
294 6% 60%  
295 0.7% 54%  
296 3% 54%  
297 1.4% 51% Median
298 2% 49%  
299 2% 48%  
300 0.7% 46%  
301 0.7% 45%  
302 3% 44%  
303 2% 41%  
304 0.7% 39%  
305 2% 38%  
306 1.2% 37%  
307 0.8% 35%  
308 0.5% 35%  
309 3% 34%  
310 2% 31%  
311 1.2% 29%  
312 1.4% 28%  
313 2% 27%  
314 2% 24%  
315 2% 23%  
316 0.6% 21%  
317 2% 20% Last Result
318 0.3% 18%  
319 2% 18%  
320 2% 16%  
321 2% 14%  
322 2% 11%  
323 0.3% 9%  
324 0.7% 9%  
325 0.8% 8%  
326 2% 7% Majority
327 2% 5%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 0.2% 3%  
330 0.6% 3%  
331 0.7% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0.7% 1.4%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.7% 99.3%  
255 0.7% 98.6%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.8% 98%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 1.0% 97%  
260 0.3% 96%  
261 1.2% 95%  
262 2% 94%  
263 2% 92%  
264 1.5% 90%  
265 1.2% 89%  
266 0.7% 87%  
267 2% 87%  
268 3% 85%  
269 4% 82%  
270 2% 77%  
271 2% 75%  
272 0.7% 73%  
273 0.7% 73%  
274 2% 72%  
275 0.8% 70%  
276 2% 69%  
277 1.0% 67%  
278 3% 66% Last Result
279 0.8% 64%  
280 1.2% 63%  
281 2% 62%  
282 0.3% 59%  
283 1.1% 59%  
284 1.2% 58%  
285 1.1% 57%  
286 2% 56%  
287 2% 53%  
288 2% 51%  
289 1.1% 49% Median
290 2% 48%  
291 5% 46%  
292 1.2% 41%  
293 4% 40%  
294 2% 36%  
295 2% 34%  
296 2% 32%  
297 1.4% 29%  
298 5% 28%  
299 0.6% 23%  
300 0.8% 22%  
301 3% 21%  
302 1.0% 19%  
303 2% 18%  
304 0.6% 16%  
305 0.7% 16%  
306 0.4% 15%  
307 2% 15%  
308 0.7% 13%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 0.7% 8%  
312 0.2% 8%  
313 1.3% 7%  
314 0.9% 6%  
315 0.6% 5%  
316 0.3% 5%  
317 0.4% 4%  
318 0.2% 4%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.3% 3%  
322 0.3% 3%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.3%  
329 0.1% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.2% 99.5%  
250 0.2% 99.3%  
251 0.7% 99.1%  
252 0.8% 98%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 0.2% 97%  
256 2% 96%  
257 2% 95%  
258 0.6% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 2% 90%  
261 0.7% 89%  
262 0.9% 88%  
263 3% 87%  
264 3% 84%  
265 2% 81%  
266 3% 80%  
267 2% 77%  
268 2% 75%  
269 0.8% 73%  
270 1.4% 72%  
271 1.1% 71%  
272 1.1% 70%  
273 2% 69%  
274 1.1% 67% Last Result
275 2% 66%  
276 0.9% 64%  
277 2% 63%  
278 0.6% 62%  
279 3% 61%  
280 0.5% 58%  
281 2% 57%  
282 2% 55%  
283 2% 54%  
284 1.5% 52%  
285 1.4% 51%  
286 1.4% 49% Median
287 2% 48%  
288 5% 46%  
289 0.9% 41%  
290 3% 40%  
291 2% 37%  
292 4% 35%  
293 0.7% 30%  
294 2% 29%  
295 5% 28%  
296 2% 23%  
297 0.7% 21%  
298 1.3% 20%  
299 0.9% 19%  
300 2% 18%  
301 0.9% 16%  
302 0.5% 15%  
303 0.7% 15%  
304 2% 14%  
305 3% 12%  
306 0.7% 9%  
307 0.2% 8%  
308 2% 8%  
309 0.3% 7%  
310 0.4% 6%  
311 0.7% 6%  
312 0.3% 5%  
313 0.6% 5%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 0.1% 4%  
316 0.3% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.3% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.4%  
325 0.1% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 0.9% Majority
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0.3% 0.7%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.6% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.1%  
230 0.1% 98.9%  
231 0.1% 98.8%  
232 0.1% 98.7%  
233 2% 98.7%  
234 0.4% 97%  
235 0.8% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 1.0% 94%  
238 0.8% 93%  
239 0.9% 92%  
240 1.0% 91%  
241 2% 90%  
242 6% 88%  
243 7% 83%  
244 0.7% 76%  
245 0.5% 75%  
246 1.0% 75%  
247 1.5% 74%  
248 0.8% 72%  
249 0.4% 72%  
250 3% 71%  
251 2% 68%  
252 0.9% 65%  
253 2% 65%  
254 2% 62%  
255 0.1% 60%  
256 0.1% 60%  
257 1.1% 60%  
258 1.4% 59%  
259 3% 58%  
260 1.3% 55%  
261 0.5% 54%  
262 3% 53%  
263 0.8% 50% Median
264 7% 50%  
265 1.3% 43%  
266 0.8% 41% Last Result
267 6% 41%  
268 3% 34%  
269 1.0% 31%  
270 6% 30%  
271 0.6% 24%  
272 0.8% 24%  
273 1.3% 23%  
274 2% 21%  
275 0.9% 19%  
276 0.4% 19%  
277 0.6% 18%  
278 0.5% 18%  
279 1.4% 17%  
280 1.3% 16%  
281 0.8% 14%  
282 2% 14%  
283 4% 12%  
284 0.3% 8%  
285 0.7% 8%  
286 2% 7%  
287 0.4% 5%  
288 0.4% 5%  
289 0.3% 5%  
290 0.1% 4%  
291 0.3% 4%  
292 0.4% 4%  
293 0.3% 3%  
294 0.2% 3%  
295 0.2% 3%  
296 0.4% 3%  
297 0.2% 2%  
298 0.2% 2%  
299 0.3% 2%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.4% 1.3%  
302 0.2% 0.9%  
303 0.2% 0.7%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.2% 99.8%  
225 0.6% 99.5%  
226 0.2% 99.0%  
227 0.1% 98.8%  
228 0.1% 98.7%  
229 0.2% 98.7%  
230 2% 98%  
231 2% 97%  
232 1.2% 95%  
233 0.6% 94%  
234 0.6% 93%  
235 1.2% 93%  
236 1.1% 92%  
237 2% 90%  
238 6% 88%  
239 4% 82%  
240 2% 78%  
241 0.6% 76%  
242 1.1% 75%  
243 0.2% 74%  
244 0.4% 74%  
245 2% 73%  
246 0.7% 72%  
247 3% 71%  
248 1.5% 68%  
249 2% 66%  
250 2% 64%  
251 2% 62%  
252 0.3% 61%  
253 0.9% 60%  
254 3% 59%  
255 1.4% 56%  
256 0.9% 55%  
257 1.4% 54%  
258 0.6% 53%  
259 1.3% 52%  
260 2% 51% Median
261 7% 49%  
262 0.5% 42% Last Result
263 1.5% 42%  
264 5% 40%  
265 4% 35%  
266 3% 32%  
267 5% 29%  
268 0.3% 24%  
269 2% 23%  
270 1.3% 21%  
271 0.6% 20%  
272 0.4% 19%  
273 0.9% 19%  
274 0.5% 18%  
275 0.9% 18%  
276 1.1% 17%  
277 2% 15%  
278 3% 14%  
279 2% 10%  
280 0.3% 8%  
281 1.3% 8%  
282 0.8% 7%  
283 0.7% 6%  
284 0.5% 5%  
285 0.2% 5%  
286 0.1% 5%  
287 0.3% 4%  
288 0.5% 4%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.4% 3%  
291 0.5% 3%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.1% 2%  
296 0.5% 2%  
297 0.2% 1.3%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.8%  
301 0.1% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.5%  
303 0% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations