Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 7–9 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.9% 40.5–43.3% 40.1–43.7% 39.8–44.0% 39.1–44.7%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.9% 37.5–40.3% 37.1–40.7% 36.8–41.0% 36.2–41.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 325 298–338 293–340 285–345 278–354
Labour Party 262 258 242–286 241–295 235–298 227–308
Liberal Democrats 12 16 14–20 11–21 10–22 7–25
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 33 20–45 10–48 7–50 4–53
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–4 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.1%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.7% 98.8%  
285 2% 98%  
286 0.1% 96%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.1% 96%  
289 0% 96%  
290 0% 96%  
291 0.3% 96%  
292 0.1% 95%  
293 2% 95%  
294 0.3% 93%  
295 0.2% 93%  
296 1.4% 93%  
297 1.0% 91%  
298 0.5% 90%  
299 0.4% 90%  
300 0.2% 89%  
301 0.1% 89%  
302 0.8% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 0.4% 84%  
306 1.2% 84%  
307 0.7% 83%  
308 6% 82%  
309 0.6% 76%  
310 0.1% 76%  
311 3% 76%  
312 3% 73%  
313 0.1% 70%  
314 3% 70%  
315 3% 67%  
316 0.4% 64%  
317 1.0% 63% Last Result
318 2% 62%  
319 0.9% 60%  
320 1.1% 60%  
321 1.0% 58%  
322 1.1% 57%  
323 1.2% 56%  
324 1.4% 55%  
325 5% 54% Median
326 0.5% 49% Majority
327 10% 48%  
328 1.0% 38%  
329 8% 37%  
330 1.5% 29%  
331 3% 28%  
332 0.9% 24%  
333 0.5% 24%  
334 5% 23%  
335 2% 18%  
336 4% 16%  
337 1.4% 12%  
338 2% 10%  
339 0.4% 8%  
340 3% 8%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.4% 5%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 1.3% 4%  
345 0.6% 3%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.5% 1.5%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.6%  
355 0.2% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.3%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0% 99.2%  
233 1.1% 99.1%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 0.6% 97%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 0.4% 97%  
239 0.2% 96%  
240 0.4% 96%  
241 2% 96%  
242 11% 94%  
243 4% 83%  
244 2% 79%  
245 2% 77%  
246 0.2% 75%  
247 4% 75%  
248 4% 71%  
249 0.6% 66%  
250 1.1% 65%  
251 2% 64%  
252 1.1% 63%  
253 3% 62%  
254 3% 59%  
255 0.8% 56%  
256 1.3% 55%  
257 2% 54%  
258 3% 52% Median
259 4% 48%  
260 9% 45%  
261 3% 35%  
262 4% 32% Last Result
263 0.5% 28%  
264 0.8% 27%  
265 0.6% 27%  
266 0.3% 26%  
267 0.7% 26%  
268 0.3% 25%  
269 2% 25%  
270 3% 22%  
271 1.3% 20%  
272 0.3% 19%  
273 0.2% 18%  
274 0.2% 18%  
275 0.3% 18%  
276 0.6% 18%  
277 3% 17%  
278 0.8% 14%  
279 0% 13%  
280 0.3% 13%  
281 2% 13%  
282 0.1% 11%  
283 0.1% 11%  
284 0.1% 11%  
285 0.4% 11%  
286 0.8% 10%  
287 0.1% 9%  
288 0.2% 9%  
289 0.2% 9%  
290 0.2% 9%  
291 0.8% 9%  
292 0.2% 8%  
293 0.2% 8%  
294 0.9% 7%  
295 2% 7%  
296 0.1% 5%  
297 2% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.1% 2%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 1.0%  
308 0.5% 0.9%  
309 0% 0.4%  
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.8%  
8 0.5% 99.2%  
9 1.0% 98.6%  
10 2% 98%  
11 2% 96%  
12 0.7% 94% Last Result
13 2% 93%  
14 5% 91%  
15 9% 86%  
16 31% 77% Median
17 13% 46%  
18 15% 33%  
19 6% 18%  
20 4% 12%  
21 3% 8%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.3% 1.1%  
24 0.3% 0.8%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 81% 81% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.6%  
5 0.8% 99.3%  
6 0.7% 98.5%  
7 0.9% 98%  
8 1.2% 97%  
9 0.5% 96%  
10 0.3% 95%  
11 0.3% 95%  
12 0.1% 95%  
13 0.7% 95%  
14 0.9% 94%  
15 0.1% 93%  
16 0.3% 93%  
17 0.4% 93%  
18 0% 92%  
19 2% 92%  
20 1.0% 90%  
21 2% 89%  
22 0.4% 88%  
23 5% 87%  
24 5% 83%  
25 0.5% 78%  
26 11% 78%  
27 1.4% 67%  
28 3% 66%  
29 4% 63%  
30 0.2% 59%  
31 0.1% 58%  
32 8% 58%  
33 0.8% 50% Median
34 0.3% 50%  
35 0.3% 49% Last Result
36 1.4% 49%  
37 0.3% 48%  
38 5% 47%  
39 9% 43%  
40 4% 33%  
41 7% 30%  
42 4% 23%  
43 8% 19%  
44 1.2% 11%  
45 0.9% 10%  
46 3% 9%  
47 0.3% 6%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.2% 4%  
50 1.3% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.6%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 20% 46%  
2 20% 26%  
3 3% 6%  
4 2% 3% Last Result
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 357 91% 330–372 318–376 316–381 305–387
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 355 91% 330–372 317–375 315–379 304–386
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 343 79% 317–354 309–357 302–361 295–367
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 327 53% 299–338 293–341 286–346 278–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 305 16% 293–332 290–337 286–345 276–352
Conservative Party 317 325 49% 298–338 293–340 285–345 278–354
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 304 14% 292–331 289–337 284–344 276–352
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 288 4% 276–313 273–321 269–328 263–336
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 286 4% 276–312 273–321 267–327 263–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 275 0.7% 258–300 255–313 252–315 244–326
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 274 0.5% 258–300 254–312 250–314 243–325
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 259 0% 242–286 242–296 236–298 229–310
Labour Party 262 258 0% 242–286 241–295 235–298 227–308

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.7%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0% 99.6%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.4% 99.4%  
307 0.9% 99.0%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0.1% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.1% 98%  
317 2% 97%  
318 2% 95%  
319 0.1% 93%  
320 0.8% 93%  
321 1.1% 92%  
322 0.1% 91%  
323 0% 91%  
324 0.2% 91%  
325 0.2% 91%  
326 0.1% 91% Majority
327 0.2% 91%  
328 0.2% 91%  
329 0.1% 90%  
330 0.3% 90%  
331 0.7% 90%  
332 0.7% 89%  
333 0.7% 88%  
334 4% 88%  
335 0.2% 84%  
336 0.3% 83%  
337 0.2% 83%  
338 0.2% 83%  
339 0.6% 83%  
340 0.9% 82%  
341 0.5% 81%  
342 2% 81%  
343 0.6% 78%  
344 2% 78%  
345 0.7% 76%  
346 1.4% 75%  
347 0.6% 74%  
348 0.4% 73%  
349 0.5% 73%  
350 0.2% 73%  
351 0.8% 72%  
352 5% 72%  
353 4% 66%  
354 8% 63%  
355 4% 54%  
356 0.6% 51% Last Result
357 6% 50%  
358 1.3% 44% Median
359 0.4% 43%  
360 1.3% 43%  
361 3% 41%  
362 0.3% 38%  
363 3% 38%  
364 1.3% 35%  
365 3% 34%  
366 0.7% 31%  
367 3% 30%  
368 6% 27%  
369 1.4% 21%  
370 1.0% 20%  
371 0.4% 19%  
372 11% 18%  
373 0.8% 8%  
374 0.3% 7%  
375 1.4% 7%  
376 0.6% 5%  
377 0.4% 4%  
378 1.0% 4%  
379 0.2% 3%  
380 0.2% 3%  
381 1.2% 3%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.1% 1.1%  
384 0.2% 1.0%  
385 0.1% 0.8%  
386 0.1% 0.7%  
387 0.1% 0.6%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.4%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0.1% 100%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.7%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0% 99.6%  
301 0% 99.6%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0% 99.6%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.4% 99.3%  
306 0.4% 99.0%  
307 0.5% 98.5%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0% 98%  
311 0% 98%  
312 0% 98%  
313 0% 98%  
314 0.1% 98%  
315 0% 98%  
316 0.1% 97%  
317 4% 97%  
318 0.3% 93%  
319 0.8% 93%  
320 0.8% 92%  
321 0.3% 92%  
322 0.2% 91%  
323 0% 91%  
324 0.2% 91%  
325 0.4% 91%  
326 0.1% 91% Majority
327 0.1% 90%  
328 0.2% 90%  
329 0.1% 90%  
330 0.7% 90%  
331 0.7% 89%  
332 0.7% 89%  
333 1.2% 88%  
334 3% 87%  
335 0.3% 84%  
336 0.4% 83%  
337 0.2% 83%  
338 1.2% 83%  
339 0.4% 81%  
340 0.8% 81%  
341 0.6% 80%  
342 3% 80%  
343 1.1% 77%  
344 1.3% 76%  
345 0.2% 74%  
346 0.7% 74%  
347 0.7% 73%  
348 0.3% 73%  
349 0.3% 73%  
350 2% 72%  
351 3% 70%  
352 0.5% 66% Last Result
353 13% 66%  
354 2% 53%  
355 1.2% 51%  
356 2% 50%  
357 5% 48%  
358 0.6% 43% Median
359 0.8% 42%  
360 1.2% 41%  
361 3% 40%  
362 0.2% 38%  
363 3% 37%  
364 2% 35%  
365 3% 33%  
366 7% 30%  
367 2% 22%  
368 1.2% 20%  
369 0.5% 19%  
370 1.4% 19%  
371 0.4% 17%  
372 10% 17%  
373 0.7% 7%  
374 0.8% 7%  
375 2% 6%  
376 0.3% 4%  
377 0.1% 4%  
378 0.7% 4%  
379 0.7% 3%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 1.0%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.5%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.6%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.1% 99.3%  
298 0.1% 99.2%  
299 0% 99.1%  
300 0.1% 99.0%  
301 0.3% 99.0%  
302 2% 98.7%  
303 0.2% 97%  
304 0.1% 96%  
305 0.4% 96%  
306 0.1% 96%  
307 0.4% 96%  
308 0.2% 95%  
309 2% 95%  
310 0.3% 93%  
311 0.2% 93%  
312 0.8% 93%  
313 0.6% 92%  
314 0.5% 91%  
315 0.7% 91%  
316 0% 90%  
317 1.3% 90%  
318 1.2% 89%  
319 0.9% 88%  
320 1.2% 87%  
321 2% 85%  
322 0.3% 84%  
323 0.8% 83%  
324 3% 83%  
325 0.4% 80%  
326 3% 79% Majority
327 5% 77%  
328 0.1% 72%  
329 0.4% 72% Last Result
330 4% 72%  
331 3% 68%  
332 1.3% 65%  
333 0.7% 63%  
334 0.7% 63%  
335 1.3% 62%  
336 0.6% 61%  
337 1.1% 60%  
338 0.7% 59%  
339 2% 58%  
340 1.5% 57%  
341 3% 55% Median
342 1.3% 52%  
343 9% 51%  
344 0.6% 41%  
345 8% 41%  
346 1.2% 33%  
347 7% 32%  
348 0.3% 24%  
349 5% 24%  
350 0.7% 19%  
351 0.1% 18%  
352 2% 18%  
353 4% 16%  
354 4% 12%  
355 0.9% 8%  
356 2% 7%  
357 1.2% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.6% 4%  
360 0% 3%  
361 1.4% 3%  
362 0.1% 1.4%  
363 0.1% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 1.0%  
366 0.2% 0.8%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0.2% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.3% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 99.0%  
285 0.5% 98.7%  
286 2% 98%  
287 0.1% 96%  
288 0.2% 96%  
289 0% 96%  
290 0.1% 96%  
291 0.1% 96%  
292 0.1% 95%  
293 2% 95%  
294 0% 93%  
295 0.2% 93%  
296 1.0% 93%  
297 0.6% 92%  
298 0.6% 91%  
299 1.1% 91%  
300 0.4% 90%  
301 0.2% 89%  
302 0.8% 89%  
303 1.4% 88%  
304 0.6% 87%  
305 0.7% 86%  
306 1.2% 86%  
307 2% 84%  
308 3% 82%  
309 0.6% 79%  
310 2% 78%  
311 2% 76%  
312 0.9% 73%  
313 3% 73%  
314 0.6% 70%  
315 4% 69%  
316 1.1% 65%  
317 1.3% 64%  
318 2% 63%  
319 0.9% 61%  
320 0.9% 60%  
321 1.1% 59% Last Result
322 1.2% 58%  
323 0.7% 57%  
324 0.2% 56%  
325 3% 56% Median
326 0.5% 53% Majority
327 4% 52%  
328 10% 49%  
329 8% 39%  
330 3% 31%  
331 3% 28%  
332 0.8% 25%  
333 0.4% 24%  
334 2% 24%  
335 2% 22%  
336 8% 21%  
337 0.9% 13%  
338 3% 12%  
339 0.9% 9%  
340 3% 8%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.4% 5%  
343 0.5% 5%  
344 0.1% 4%  
345 0.6% 4%  
346 1.5% 3%  
347 0.5% 2%  
348 0.3% 1.4%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.2% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.4% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0% 99.2%  
282 0% 99.1%  
283 0.6% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 98.5%  
285 0.4% 98%  
286 2% 98%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.3% 96%  
289 0.4% 96%  
290 3% 95%  
291 0.3% 92%  
292 2% 92%  
293 1.4% 90%  
294 3% 89%  
295 3% 86%  
296 5% 82%  
297 0.4% 77%  
298 1.0% 77%  
299 3% 76%  
300 2% 73%  
301 7% 71%  
302 0.7% 64%  
303 11% 63%  
304 0.7% 52%  
305 2% 51%  
306 4% 49%  
307 0.4% 45% Median
308 2% 44%  
309 1.0% 43%  
310 1.1% 42%  
311 0.3% 40%  
312 2% 40%  
313 1.3% 38% Last Result
314 0.4% 37%  
315 3% 36%  
316 2% 33%  
317 1.0% 31%  
318 3% 30%  
319 0.2% 27%  
320 3% 27%  
321 0.5% 24%  
322 6% 24%  
323 0.8% 18%  
324 1.3% 17%  
325 0.2% 16%  
326 0.9% 16% Majority
327 3% 15%  
328 0.8% 12%  
329 0.1% 11%  
330 0.2% 11%  
331 0.4% 11%  
332 0.5% 10%  
333 1.0% 10%  
334 0.9% 9%  
335 0.7% 8%  
336 0.4% 7%  
337 2% 7%  
338 0.1% 5%  
339 0.3% 5%  
340 0.1% 4%  
341 0% 4%  
342 0.1% 4%  
343 0.2% 4%  
344 0.1% 4%  
345 2% 4%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.1% 1.3%  
348 0.1% 1.2%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.3% 0.9%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.2% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.1%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.7% 98.8%  
285 2% 98%  
286 0.1% 96%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.1% 96%  
289 0% 96%  
290 0% 96%  
291 0.3% 96%  
292 0.1% 95%  
293 2% 95%  
294 0.3% 93%  
295 0.2% 93%  
296 1.4% 93%  
297 1.0% 91%  
298 0.5% 90%  
299 0.4% 90%  
300 0.2% 89%  
301 0.1% 89%  
302 0.8% 89%  
303 2% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 0.4% 84%  
306 1.2% 84%  
307 0.7% 83%  
308 6% 82%  
309 0.6% 76%  
310 0.1% 76%  
311 3% 76%  
312 3% 73%  
313 0.1% 70%  
314 3% 70%  
315 3% 67%  
316 0.4% 64%  
317 1.0% 63% Last Result
318 2% 62%  
319 0.9% 60%  
320 1.1% 60%  
321 1.0% 58%  
322 1.1% 57%  
323 1.2% 56%  
324 1.4% 55%  
325 5% 54% Median
326 0.5% 49% Majority
327 10% 48%  
328 1.0% 38%  
329 8% 37%  
330 1.5% 29%  
331 3% 28%  
332 0.9% 24%  
333 0.5% 24%  
334 5% 23%  
335 2% 18%  
336 4% 16%  
337 1.4% 12%  
338 2% 10%  
339 0.4% 8%  
340 3% 8%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.4% 5%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 1.3% 4%  
345 0.6% 3%  
346 0.5% 2%  
347 0.5% 1.5%  
348 0.1% 0.9%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.8%  
352 0% 0.7%  
353 0% 0.7%  
354 0.2% 0.6%  
355 0.2% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.4% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.3%  
278 0% 99.3%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.3% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.7% 98.8%  
284 1.3% 98%  
285 0.2% 97%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 0.3% 96%  
288 0.3% 96%  
289 0.6% 95%  
290 3% 95%  
291 0.6% 92%  
292 3% 91%  
293 1.4% 89%  
294 7% 87%  
295 2% 80%  
296 1.2% 78%  
297 0.6% 77%  
298 1.0% 76%  
299 3% 75%  
300 2% 72%  
301 8% 70%  
302 10% 62%  
303 1.1% 52%  
304 3% 50%  
305 3% 47%  
306 0.4% 44%  
307 0.2% 44% Median
308 2% 44%  
309 1.0% 42% Last Result
310 1.0% 41%  
311 0.3% 40%  
312 2% 40%  
313 1.4% 37%  
314 1.0% 36%  
315 3% 35%  
316 1.4% 32%  
317 3% 30%  
318 0.6% 27%  
319 0.4% 27%  
320 5% 26%  
321 0.6% 22%  
322 3% 21%  
323 2% 18%  
324 0.3% 16%  
325 2% 16%  
326 0.6% 14% Majority
327 2% 13%  
328 0.8% 12%  
329 0.2% 11%  
330 0.4% 11%  
331 1.1% 10%  
332 0.6% 9%  
333 0.2% 9%  
334 2% 8%  
335 0.2% 7%  
336 0.1% 7%  
337 2% 7%  
338 0% 5%  
339 0.1% 5%  
340 0.1% 4%  
341 0.1% 4%  
342 0.2% 4%  
343 0.1% 4%  
344 2% 4%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.4%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.3% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0% 99.5%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.4% 99.2%  
267 0.1% 98.8%  
268 0.1% 98.7%  
269 1.4% 98.6%  
270 0% 97%  
271 0.1% 97%  
272 0.8% 97%  
273 1.3% 96%  
274 2% 95%  
275 0.7% 93%  
276 3% 93%  
277 5% 89%  
278 2% 84%  
279 0.4% 82%  
280 0.3% 82%  
281 5% 82%  
282 0.4% 76%  
283 7% 76%  
284 1.2% 69%  
285 9% 68%  
286 0.8% 59%  
287 7% 59%  
288 4% 52%  
289 3% 48%  
290 0.8% 45%  
291 2% 44% Median
292 0.2% 42%  
293 0.7% 42%  
294 1.5% 41%  
295 1.2% 39%  
296 0.8% 38%  
297 0.7% 37%  
298 1.3% 37%  
299 3% 35%  
300 3% 32%  
301 1.4% 29% Last Result
302 0% 28%  
303 4% 28%  
304 0.8% 24%  
305 3% 23%  
306 3% 20%  
307 1.0% 18%  
308 0.2% 17%  
309 1.4% 16%  
310 0.3% 15%  
311 2% 15%  
312 1.4% 13%  
313 1.3% 11%  
314 0% 10%  
315 0.7% 10%  
316 0.3% 9%  
317 0.3% 9%  
318 1.3% 9%  
319 0.3% 7%  
320 0.4% 7%  
321 2% 7%  
322 0.1% 5%  
323 0.4% 5%  
324 0.1% 4%  
325 0.3% 4%  
326 0.1% 4% Majority
327 0.1% 4%  
328 2% 4%  
329 0.3% 1.3%  
330 0.1% 1.0%  
331 0% 1.0%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.9%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 0.2% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.3% 99.0%  
267 1.2% 98.7%  
268 0.1% 97%  
269 0.5% 97%  
270 0.1% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 1.3% 96%  
273 1.2% 95%  
274 1.4% 94%  
275 0.7% 92%  
276 3% 92%  
277 5% 88%  
278 2% 84%  
279 5% 82%  
280 0.4% 77%  
281 1.0% 77%  
282 3% 76%  
283 5% 73%  
284 1.1% 67%  
285 8% 66%  
286 10% 58%  
287 0.4% 48%  
288 1.0% 48%  
289 2% 47%  
290 1.4% 45%  
291 2% 43% Median
292 0.4% 41%  
293 1.0% 41%  
294 1.0% 40%  
295 1.4% 39%  
296 2% 37%  
297 0.4% 36% Last Result
298 0.3% 35%  
299 6% 35%  
300 1.3% 29%  
301 0.4% 28%  
302 0% 28%  
303 4% 28%  
304 3% 23%  
305 3% 20%  
306 0.5% 17%  
307 0.6% 17%  
308 0.2% 16%  
309 2% 16%  
310 1.5% 14%  
311 1.0% 12%  
312 1.4% 11%  
313 0.1% 10%  
314 0.2% 10%  
315 0.5% 10%  
316 0.3% 9%  
317 0.9% 9%  
318 1.0% 8%  
319 0.1% 7%  
320 0.1% 7%  
321 2% 7%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.2% 4%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 0.1% 4%  
326 0.2% 4% Majority
327 2% 4%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.2% 1.1%  
330 0% 1.0%  
331 0.1% 0.9%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.2% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.4%  
247 0.3% 99.3%  
248 0.1% 99.0%  
249 0.3% 99.0%  
250 0.6% 98.6%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 1.4% 98%  
253 0.1% 96%  
254 0.1% 96%  
255 2% 96%  
256 0.7% 94%  
257 0.4% 94%  
258 10% 93%  
259 0.3% 83%  
260 0.6% 83%  
261 1.2% 82%  
262 0.6% 81%  
263 2% 80%  
264 7% 78%  
265 3% 70%  
266 2% 67%  
267 3% 65%  
268 0.2% 63%  
269 2% 62%  
270 0.7% 60%  
271 1.5% 59%  
272 0.6% 58%  
273 2% 57%  
274 5% 55% Median
275 1.3% 50%  
276 2% 49%  
277 10% 47%  
278 3% 37% Last Result
279 3% 34%  
280 3% 30%  
281 0.1% 28%  
282 0.3% 28%  
283 0.8% 27%  
284 0.2% 27%  
285 0.7% 26%  
286 0.8% 26%  
287 2% 25%  
288 2% 23%  
289 1.5% 21%  
290 0.6% 20%  
291 0.6% 19%  
292 0.9% 19%  
293 0.5% 18%  
294 0.5% 17%  
295 0.3% 17%  
296 3% 16%  
297 0.4% 13%  
298 2% 13%  
299 0.1% 11%  
300 1.3% 11%  
301 0.1% 10%  
302 0.3% 10%  
303 0.1% 10%  
304 0.1% 10%  
305 0.4% 9%  
306 0.1% 9%  
307 0.1% 9%  
308 0.2% 9%  
309 0.1% 9%  
310 1.0% 9%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 0.2% 7%  
313 4% 7%  
314 0.1% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0% 2%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.6% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.5%  
325 0.4% 1.1%  
326 0.2% 0.7% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0% 99.3%  
246 0.2% 99.3%  
247 0.2% 99.1%  
248 0% 98.9%  
249 0.3% 98.9%  
250 1.2% 98.6%  
251 0.3% 97%  
252 1.1% 97%  
253 0.1% 96%  
254 0.8% 96%  
255 1.5% 95%  
256 0.1% 94%  
257 0.6% 93%  
258 10% 93%  
259 1.2% 83%  
260 0.8% 82%  
261 2% 81%  
262 6% 79%  
263 4% 74%  
264 0.6% 70%  
265 3% 69%  
266 1.3% 66%  
267 3% 65%  
268 0.3% 62%  
269 3% 62%  
270 0.6% 59%  
271 1.0% 58%  
272 2% 57%  
273 3% 56%  
274 3% 53% Last Result, Median
275 0.9% 49%  
276 11% 49%  
277 4% 37%  
278 5% 34%  
279 0.7% 28%  
280 0.3% 28%  
281 0.3% 27%  
282 0.4% 27%  
283 0.8% 27%  
284 1.0% 26%  
285 0.7% 25%  
286 1.0% 24%  
287 2% 23%  
288 2% 22%  
289 0.3% 19%  
290 1.1% 19%  
291 0.2% 18%  
292 0.6% 18%  
293 0.2% 17%  
294 0.3% 17%  
295 0.3% 17%  
296 3% 16%  
297 2% 13%  
298 0.7% 12%  
299 0.1% 11%  
300 0.9% 11%  
301 0.1% 10%  
302 0.3% 10%  
303 0.2% 9%  
304 0.1% 9%  
305 0.2% 9%  
306 0.2% 9%  
307 0.1% 9%  
308 0.1% 9%  
309 0.9% 9%  
310 0.9% 8%  
311 0.2% 7%  
312 2% 7%  
313 2% 5%  
314 0.1% 3%  
315 0% 2%  
316 0.1% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0% 2%  
320 0% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 1.0% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.0%  
325 0.1% 0.6%  
326 0% 0.5% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.3%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0% 99.5%  
230 0.1% 99.5%  
231 0.2% 99.4%  
232 0.1% 99.2%  
233 0.7% 99.2%  
234 0% 98%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 1.1% 98%  
237 0% 97%  
238 0.3% 97%  
239 0.2% 97%  
240 0.5% 96%  
241 0.9% 96%  
242 11% 95%  
243 1.0% 84%  
244 4% 83%  
245 1.3% 79%  
246 2% 78%  
247 0.4% 76%  
248 4% 76%  
249 5% 71%  
250 2% 67%  
251 1.1% 65%  
252 1.0% 64%  
253 3% 63%  
254 2% 59%  
255 2% 57%  
256 0.7% 56%  
257 2% 55%  
258 1.1% 53% Median
259 4% 52%  
260 3% 48%  
261 11% 45%  
262 1.2% 33%  
263 2% 32%  
264 3% 30%  
265 0.4% 27%  
266 0.2% 27% Last Result
267 1.3% 27%  
268 0.6% 26%  
269 0.7% 25%  
270 2% 24%  
271 1.4% 22%  
272 0.8% 20%  
273 1.1% 20%  
274 0.2% 19%  
275 0.5% 18%  
276 0.2% 18%  
277 4% 18%  
278 0.7% 14%  
279 0.1% 13%  
280 0.3% 13%  
281 1.1% 13%  
282 1.1% 12%  
283 0.1% 11%  
284 0.1% 11%  
285 0.3% 11%  
286 0.8% 10%  
287 0.3% 10%  
288 0.2% 9%  
289 0.2% 9%  
290 0.2% 9%  
291 0.1% 9%  
292 0.1% 9%  
293 0.9% 8%  
294 1.0% 8%  
295 0% 7%  
296 2% 7%  
297 2% 5%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0.1% 2%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 1.0%  
308 0.1% 0.9%  
309 0.2% 0.8%  
310 0.2% 0.6%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0.1% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0% 99.4%  
230 0.1% 99.3%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0% 99.2%  
233 1.1% 99.1%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 0.6% 97%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 0.4% 97%  
239 0.2% 96%  
240 0.4% 96%  
241 2% 96%  
242 11% 94%  
243 4% 83%  
244 2% 79%  
245 2% 77%  
246 0.2% 75%  
247 4% 75%  
248 4% 71%  
249 0.6% 66%  
250 1.1% 65%  
251 2% 64%  
252 1.1% 63%  
253 3% 62%  
254 3% 59%  
255 0.8% 56%  
256 1.3% 55%  
257 2% 54%  
258 3% 52% Median
259 4% 48%  
260 9% 45%  
261 3% 35%  
262 4% 32% Last Result
263 0.5% 28%  
264 0.8% 27%  
265 0.6% 27%  
266 0.3% 26%  
267 0.7% 26%  
268 0.3% 25%  
269 2% 25%  
270 3% 22%  
271 1.3% 20%  
272 0.3% 19%  
273 0.2% 18%  
274 0.2% 18%  
275 0.3% 18%  
276 0.6% 18%  
277 3% 17%  
278 0.8% 14%  
279 0% 13%  
280 0.3% 13%  
281 2% 13%  
282 0.1% 11%  
283 0.1% 11%  
284 0.1% 11%  
285 0.4% 11%  
286 0.8% 10%  
287 0.1% 9%  
288 0.2% 9%  
289 0.2% 9%  
290 0.2% 9%  
291 0.8% 9%  
292 0.2% 8%  
293 0.2% 8%  
294 0.9% 7%  
295 2% 7%  
296 0.1% 5%  
297 2% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0% 2%  
300 0.1% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.1% 2%  
304 0.1% 2%  
305 0% 2%  
306 0.6% 2%  
307 0% 1.0%  
308 0.5% 0.9%  
309 0% 0.4%  
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.4%  
314 0% 0.4%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.3%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations