Opinion Poll by BMG Research for HuffPost UK, 21–22 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 38.2% 36.2–40.2% 35.7–40.7% 35.2–41.2% 34.3–42.2%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.2% 36.2–40.2% 35.7–40.7% 35.2–41.2% 34.3–42.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 278 253–310 248–317 243–322 235–331
Labour Party 262 273 244–296 238–303 236–306 227–315
Liberal Democrats 12 26 22–29 18–31 16–33 13–36
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 51 44–54 40–56 34–57 21–57
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Plaid Cymru 4 2 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.2% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.1%  
239 0.2% 99.0%  
240 0.3% 98.8%  
241 0.3% 98%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.3% 97%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.7% 96%  
249 0.5% 95%  
250 0.8% 94%  
251 2% 94%  
252 0.8% 92%  
253 1.3% 91%  
254 1.0% 90%  
255 2% 89%  
256 2% 86%  
257 0.8% 85%  
258 2% 84%  
259 2% 82%  
260 1.1% 81%  
261 0.9% 80%  
262 1.2% 79%  
263 2% 77%  
264 1.1% 76%  
265 3% 75%  
266 0.7% 72%  
267 2% 71%  
268 1.0% 69%  
269 2% 68%  
270 0.5% 66%  
271 1.0% 66%  
272 3% 65%  
273 3% 62%  
274 2% 59%  
275 2% 57%  
276 0.8% 55%  
277 0.8% 54%  
278 5% 53% Median
279 0.9% 48%  
280 2% 47%  
281 0.5% 45%  
282 0.9% 45%  
283 2% 44%  
284 1.3% 42%  
285 0.6% 41%  
286 0.9% 40%  
287 3% 40%  
288 0.7% 37%  
289 3% 36%  
290 1.0% 33%  
291 1.3% 32%  
292 0.7% 31%  
293 2% 30%  
294 2% 28%  
295 0.2% 25%  
296 0.2% 25%  
297 0.5% 25%  
298 2% 24%  
299 0.9% 23%  
300 0.7% 22%  
301 1.0% 21%  
302 0.7% 20%  
303 0.5% 19%  
304 2% 19%  
305 3% 17%  
306 0.5% 14%  
307 0.6% 14%  
308 0.4% 13%  
309 1.0% 13%  
310 2% 12%  
311 0.7% 10%  
312 0.7% 9%  
313 0.4% 8%  
314 0.8% 8%  
315 0.8% 7%  
316 1.0% 6%  
317 0.6% 5% Last Result
318 0.4% 5%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.2% 4%  
321 0.4% 4%  
322 0.8% 3%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.6% 1.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.1% 99.3%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0.6% 98.9%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 1.0% 98%  
237 1.2% 97%  
238 1.1% 95%  
239 1.0% 94%  
240 0.9% 93%  
241 1.4% 92%  
242 0.7% 91%  
243 0.3% 90%  
244 0.2% 90%  
245 0.7% 90%  
246 1.1% 89%  
247 0.4% 88%  
248 4% 88%  
249 1.2% 84%  
250 0.9% 83%  
251 1.0% 82%  
252 1.0% 81%  
253 0.2% 80%  
254 1.0% 80%  
255 2% 79%  
256 1.3% 77%  
257 1.4% 75%  
258 2% 74%  
259 0.9% 72%  
260 1.3% 71%  
261 2% 69%  
262 0.7% 67% Last Result
263 2% 66%  
264 1.0% 65%  
265 0.9% 64%  
266 1.0% 63%  
267 1.5% 62%  
268 0.3% 60%  
269 0.6% 60%  
270 2% 59%  
271 0.9% 58%  
272 6% 57%  
273 3% 51% Median
274 2% 48%  
275 0.3% 47%  
276 0.6% 46%  
277 2% 46%  
278 3% 44%  
279 1.4% 41%  
280 2% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 0.8% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 31%  
285 1.1% 29%  
286 2% 28%  
287 1.5% 26%  
288 1.5% 25%  
289 0.9% 24%  
290 1.2% 23%  
291 3% 22%  
292 1.0% 18%  
293 3% 17%  
294 0.8% 14%  
295 2% 13%  
296 2% 11%  
297 0.9% 10%  
298 1.4% 9%  
299 0.4% 7%  
300 0.6% 7%  
301 1.0% 6%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 1.0% 5%  
304 0.5% 4%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 1.0% 3%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 1.4%  
311 0.1% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.2%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.8%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.4% 99.8%  
14 0.5% 99.4%  
15 0.9% 98.9%  
16 0.8% 98%  
17 2% 97%  
18 0.9% 96%  
19 1.0% 95%  
20 1.3% 94%  
21 2% 92%  
22 3% 90%  
23 4% 87%  
24 6% 83%  
25 10% 77%  
26 19% 67% Median
27 15% 48%  
28 19% 33%  
29 5% 14%  
30 2% 9%  
31 2% 7%  
32 1.3% 5%  
33 1.1% 3%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.8%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.5% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0.1% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.1% 99.7%  
20 0% 99.6%  
21 0.1% 99.6%  
22 0% 99.5%  
23 0.1% 99.4%  
24 0.2% 99.3%  
25 0% 99.1%  
26 0.2% 99.1%  
27 0.1% 98.9%  
28 0.3% 98.8%  
29 0.4% 98%  
30 0.1% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0.2% 98%  
33 0.2% 98%  
34 0.1% 98%  
35 0.2% 97% Last Result
36 0.2% 97%  
37 0.4% 97%  
38 0.3% 97%  
39 1.2% 96%  
40 3% 95%  
41 1.4% 93%  
42 0.6% 91%  
43 0.3% 91%  
44 4% 90%  
45 2% 87%  
46 4% 85%  
47 5% 81%  
48 5% 77%  
49 2% 72%  
50 15% 70%  
51 15% 55% Median
52 14% 40%  
53 3% 26%  
54 15% 23%  
55 2% 8%  
56 3% 6%  
57 3% 3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 68% 100% Last Result, Median
2 31% 32%  
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 18% 69%  
2 20% 51% Median
3 21% 31%  
4 5% 10% Last Result
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 352 82% 319–376 313–381 308–386 299–394
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 351 80% 318–375 310–379 306–384 297–393
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 330 59% 306–362 300–367 296–371 285–380
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 329 55% 305–360 299–365 294–369 284–378
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 324 47% 294–349 288–354 282–358 275–366
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 323 46% 292–348 286–352 282–357 273–365
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 306 21% 281–336 275–342 271–347 263–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 301 10% 269–325 265–331 261–335 252–346
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 300 8% 268–324 263–329 259–334 249–344
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 279 2% 255–312 250–319 245–324 237–333
Conservative Party 317 278 1.5% 253–310 248–317 243–322 235–331
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 274 0.1% 246–298 240–304 238–308 229–317
Labour Party 262 273 0.1% 244–296 238–303 236–306 227–315

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.3%  
303 0.2% 99.2%  
304 0.5% 99.0%  
305 0.6% 98.5%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.9% 98%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.3% 96%  
311 0.3% 96%  
312 0.6% 96%  
313 0.7% 95% Last Result
314 0.8% 94%  
315 0.9% 94%  
316 0.7% 93%  
317 0.5% 92%  
318 0.7% 92%  
319 1.2% 91%  
320 2% 90%  
321 0.8% 88%  
322 0.7% 87%  
323 0.5% 87%  
324 0.2% 86%  
325 3% 86%  
326 1.5% 82% Majority
327 0.8% 81%  
328 0.4% 80%  
329 1.0% 80%  
330 0.7% 79%  
331 2% 78%  
332 0.9% 76%  
333 0.5% 75%  
334 0.2% 75%  
335 0.8% 75%  
336 2% 74%  
337 2% 72%  
338 0.6% 70%  
339 1.3% 69%  
340 2% 68%  
341 2% 66%  
342 1.2% 64%  
343 3% 63%  
344 0.8% 60%  
345 0.6% 59%  
346 1.0% 59%  
347 2% 58%  
348 0.9% 56%  
349 2% 55%  
350 0.7% 53%  
351 0.9% 53%  
352 5% 52% Median
353 0.8% 47%  
354 0.9% 46%  
355 3% 45%  
356 2% 42%  
357 5% 41%  
358 1.2% 36%  
359 0.7% 35%  
360 2% 34%  
361 0.7% 32%  
362 0.9% 32%  
363 2% 31%  
364 0.6% 29%  
365 3% 28%  
366 1.1% 25%  
367 2% 24%  
368 0.5% 22%  
369 0.9% 21%  
370 1.3% 20%  
371 2% 19%  
372 1.0% 16%  
373 1.2% 16%  
374 2% 14%  
375 1.3% 12%  
376 0.7% 11%  
377 2% 10%  
378 0.6% 8%  
379 2% 8%  
380 0.5% 6%  
381 0.7% 5%  
382 0.5% 5%  
383 0.4% 4%  
384 0.4% 4%  
385 0.5% 3%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.5% 2%  
389 0.2% 2%  
390 0.2% 1.3%  
391 0.2% 1.1%  
392 0.2% 0.9%  
393 0.2% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.5%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.1% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 99.3%  
301 0.3% 99.2%  
302 0.3% 98.9%  
303 0.7% 98.6%  
304 0.2% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.2% 97%  
308 0.9% 97%  
309 0.5% 96% Last Result
310 0.9% 96%  
311 0.8% 95%  
312 0.4% 94%  
313 0.6% 94%  
314 0.6% 93%  
315 0.6% 92%  
316 0.9% 92%  
317 0.7% 91%  
318 0.9% 90%  
319 2% 89%  
320 0.6% 87%  
321 0.4% 87%  
322 0.4% 86%  
323 1.3% 86%  
324 3% 85%  
325 1.0% 81%  
326 0.9% 80% Majority
327 0.7% 80%  
328 0.8% 79%  
329 2% 78%  
330 0.7% 76%  
331 0.4% 76%  
332 0.5% 75%  
333 2% 75%  
334 2% 73%  
335 0.4% 71%  
336 1.4% 70%  
337 2% 69%  
338 2% 67%  
339 1.2% 66%  
340 0.7% 64%  
341 1.4% 64%  
342 0.9% 62%  
343 3% 61%  
344 0.5% 58%  
345 1.4% 58%  
346 0.7% 56%  
347 0.9% 56%  
348 2% 55%  
349 2% 53%  
350 0.8% 52% Median
351 5% 51%  
352 0.8% 46%  
353 0.8% 45%  
354 3% 44%  
355 4% 41%  
356 2% 37%  
357 2% 36%  
358 1.4% 34%  
359 0.7% 33%  
360 3% 32%  
361 0.6% 29%  
362 3% 29%  
363 1.3% 26%  
364 0.6% 24%  
365 1.3% 24%  
366 0.9% 23%  
367 2% 22%  
368 1.1% 20%  
369 2% 19%  
370 0.6% 17%  
371 2% 16%  
372 1.5% 15%  
373 1.0% 13%  
374 2% 12%  
375 0.9% 10%  
376 0.3% 9%  
377 2% 9%  
378 1.1% 7%  
379 0.8% 6%  
380 0.8% 5%  
381 0.3% 4%  
382 0.3% 4%  
383 0.3% 3%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.5% 2%  
386 0.2% 2%  
387 0.2% 2%  
388 0.4% 2%  
389 0.2% 1.2%  
390 0.2% 1.0%  
391 0.2% 0.8%  
392 0.1% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.5%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.1% 99.3%  
288 0.1% 99.2%  
289 0.1% 99.1%  
290 0.2% 98.9%  
291 0.2% 98.7%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.8% 96%  
299 0.3% 96%  
300 0.4% 95%  
301 0.7% 95%  
302 0.7% 94%  
303 1.4% 93%  
304 0.4% 92%  
305 1.4% 92%  
306 0.6% 90%  
307 2% 90%  
308 1.4% 88%  
309 3% 86%  
310 1.0% 83%  
311 1.4% 82%  
312 1.2% 81%  
313 2% 80%  
314 1.0% 78%  
315 2% 77%  
316 0.8% 74%  
317 0.5% 74%  
318 1.4% 73%  
319 0.7% 72%  
320 4% 71%  
321 0.8% 67%  
322 4% 67%  
323 0.9% 63%  
324 2% 62%  
325 0.6% 59%  
326 1.3% 59% Majority
327 3% 57%  
328 0.9% 54%  
329 0.9% 53%  
330 5% 52%  
331 3% 47% Median
332 1.5% 45%  
333 0.4% 43%  
334 1.1% 43%  
335 0.7% 42%  
336 2% 41%  
337 0.7% 39%  
338 0.8% 38%  
339 2% 38%  
340 0.5% 36%  
341 2% 35%  
342 2% 34%  
343 0.9% 31%  
344 0.6% 31%  
345 1.3% 30%  
346 3% 29%  
347 0.9% 26%  
348 0.9% 25%  
349 1.0% 24%  
350 0.4% 23%  
351 2% 23%  
352 1.1% 20%  
353 0.4% 19%  
354 2% 19%  
355 0.4% 17%  
356 4% 17% Last Result
357 0.8% 13%  
358 0.4% 13%  
359 0.4% 12%  
360 1.0% 12%  
361 0.4% 11%  
362 1.3% 10%  
363 0.7% 9%  
364 0.8% 8%  
365 2% 8%  
366 1.0% 6%  
367 0.8% 5%  
368 0.3% 4%  
369 0.2% 4%  
370 0.8% 4%  
371 0.6% 3%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.4% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.4%  
376 0.2% 1.1%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0.1% 0.7%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.2% 0.5%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.1%  
288 0.2% 99.0%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.3% 98.6%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.4% 98%  
295 0.6% 97%  
296 0.6% 97%  
297 0.8% 96%  
298 0.2% 95%  
299 0.5% 95%  
300 0.8% 95%  
301 1.1% 94%  
302 0.7% 93%  
303 1.3% 92%  
304 0.4% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 0.9% 88%  
307 2% 87%  
308 0.6% 85%  
309 3% 84%  
310 2% 81%  
311 1.3% 80%  
312 0.9% 78%  
313 2% 78%  
314 0.9% 75%  
315 2% 74%  
316 1.2% 72%  
317 2% 71%  
318 2% 69%  
319 0.6% 67%  
320 0.8% 66%  
321 3% 66%  
322 3% 62%  
323 0.6% 60%  
324 1.3% 59%  
325 3% 58%  
326 2% 55% Majority
327 0.6% 53%  
328 0.8% 53%  
329 5% 52% Median
330 0.9% 47%  
331 3% 46%  
332 2% 43%  
333 0.5% 41%  
334 2% 41%  
335 0.6% 39%  
336 1.0% 39%  
337 0.7% 38%  
338 0.8% 37%  
339 3% 36%  
340 1.3% 33%  
341 1.1% 32%  
342 0.9% 31%  
343 2% 30%  
344 1.2% 28%  
345 2% 27%  
346 0.8% 25%  
347 0.9% 24%  
348 2% 23%  
349 0.6% 21%  
350 0.8% 21%  
351 1.0% 20%  
352 2% 19% Last Result
353 0.4% 18%  
354 2% 17%  
355 3% 16%  
356 0.6% 13%  
357 0.6% 12%  
358 0.3% 12%  
359 0.4% 11%  
360 1.3% 11%  
361 0.8% 10%  
362 1.4% 9%  
363 1.2% 8%  
364 1.2% 6%  
365 0.6% 5%  
366 0.7% 5%  
367 0.6% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.3% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.2%  
375 0.2% 1.0%  
376 0.1% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.7%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.3% 99.3%  
278 0.1% 99.0%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.3% 98.8%  
281 0.5% 98%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.1% 97%  
285 0.4% 97%  
286 1.0% 97%  
287 0.8% 96%  
288 0.5% 95%  
289 0.9% 95%  
290 0.4% 94%  
291 1.3% 93%  
292 0.9% 92%  
293 0.8% 91%  
294 0.9% 90%  
295 0.4% 89%  
296 0.7% 89%  
297 1.0% 88%  
298 0.8% 87%  
299 3% 86%  
300 1.1% 84%  
301 0.5% 82% Last Result
302 2% 82%  
303 0.6% 80%  
304 1.1% 80%  
305 1.5% 79%  
306 0.4% 77%  
307 0.8% 77%  
308 0.6% 76%  
309 0.9% 75%  
310 1.4% 74%  
311 3% 73%  
312 0.5% 70%  
313 1.4% 70%  
314 2% 68%  
315 2% 66%  
316 1.5% 64%  
317 2% 63%  
318 2% 61%  
319 1.3% 59%  
320 0.6% 58%  
321 0.5% 57%  
322 1.3% 57%  
323 0.7% 55%  
324 6% 55%  
325 2% 49%  
326 0.3% 47% Median, Majority
327 2% 47%  
328 1.2% 45%  
329 1.3% 44%  
330 2% 43%  
331 3% 41%  
332 3% 38%  
333 0.7% 35%  
334 1.3% 34%  
335 1.2% 33%  
336 2% 32%  
337 1.0% 29%  
338 3% 28%  
339 0.6% 26%  
340 0.7% 25%  
341 2% 24%  
342 2% 22%  
343 3% 20%  
344 0.9% 18%  
345 1.3% 17%  
346 1.4% 16%  
347 3% 14%  
348 0.5% 11%  
349 1.5% 11%  
350 0.6% 9%  
351 1.1% 9%  
352 2% 8%  
353 0.8% 6%  
354 0.4% 5%  
355 0.9% 5%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 0.7% 4%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.4%  
363 0.1% 1.1%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.3% 99.4%  
276 0.2% 99.1%  
277 0.4% 99.0%  
278 0.1% 98.6%  
279 0.6% 98.5%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.4% 97%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 1.5% 96%  
287 0.2% 94%  
288 0.8% 94%  
289 0.4% 93%  
290 0.7% 93%  
291 1.5% 92%  
292 1.2% 90%  
293 0.4% 89%  
294 0.5% 89%  
295 0.4% 88%  
296 1.4% 88%  
297 0.6% 86% Last Result
298 3% 86%  
299 1.1% 83%  
300 1.3% 82%  
301 0.7% 81%  
302 2% 80%  
303 0.6% 78%  
304 0.4% 77%  
305 1.2% 77%  
306 0.3% 76%  
307 1.2% 75%  
308 3% 74%  
309 0.3% 71%  
310 0.8% 71%  
311 3% 70%  
312 1.4% 67%  
313 2% 66%  
314 0.5% 64%  
315 1.4% 64%  
316 0.6% 63%  
317 3% 62%  
318 2% 59%  
319 0.8% 57%  
320 0.5% 56%  
321 0.9% 55%  
322 0.9% 55%  
323 5% 54%  
324 1.5% 48% Median
325 0.7% 47%  
326 2% 46% Majority
327 0.5% 44%  
328 2% 44%  
329 1.4% 41%  
330 3% 40%  
331 3% 37%  
332 2% 34%  
333 2% 33%  
334 1.2% 30%  
335 2% 29%  
336 0.7% 27%  
337 0.7% 26%  
338 1.4% 25%  
339 2% 24%  
340 1.1% 22%  
341 3% 21%  
342 0.6% 19%  
343 3% 18%  
344 1.2% 16%  
345 1.4% 14%  
346 0.9% 13%  
347 2% 12%  
348 0.5% 10%  
349 2% 10%  
350 1.4% 8%  
351 1.1% 7%  
352 0.6% 6%  
353 0.4% 5%  
354 1.1% 5%  
355 0.5% 4%  
356 0.2% 3%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.5% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.1% 1.2%  
362 0.3% 1.1%  
363 0.1% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.7%  
365 0.2% 0.6%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.2% 99.5%  
265 0.2% 99.2%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.5% 98.8%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 0.7% 97%  
274 0.4% 96%  
275 0.8% 96%  
276 0.7% 95%  
277 0.8% 94%  
278 2% 93%  
279 0.7% 92%  
280 0.8% 91%  
281 1.2% 90%  
282 2% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 1.3% 85%  
285 1.3% 84%  
286 1.2% 82%  
287 2% 81%  
288 1.3% 79%  
289 2% 77%  
290 0.5% 75%  
291 0.6% 75%  
292 3% 74%  
293 1.1% 71%  
294 3% 70%  
295 1.2% 68%  
296 0.7% 66%  
297 1.0% 66%  
298 5% 65%  
299 1.1% 60%  
300 3% 59%  
301 0.8% 56%  
302 0.9% 55%  
303 2% 54%  
304 0.4% 53% Median
305 2% 52%  
306 6% 50%  
307 0.5% 45%  
308 1.3% 44%  
309 0.4% 43%  
310 0.4% 42%  
311 1.3% 42%  
312 1.4% 41%  
313 3% 39%  
314 2% 37%  
315 2% 35%  
316 1.4% 33%  
317 2% 32%  
318 0.5% 30%  
319 3% 30%  
320 1.0% 27%  
321 0.8% 26%  
322 1.1% 25%  
323 0.3% 24%  
324 0.5% 23%  
325 2% 23%  
326 0.7% 21% Majority
327 0.3% 20%  
328 2% 20%  
329 0.7% 18% Last Result
330 1.1% 17%  
331 3% 16%  
332 0.8% 13%  
333 1.1% 13%  
334 0.5% 11%  
335 0.4% 11%  
336 0.8% 11%  
337 0.8% 10%  
338 1.5% 9%  
339 0.7% 7%  
340 0.6% 7%  
341 0.9% 6%  
342 0.5% 5%  
343 0.8% 5%  
344 0.8% 4%  
345 0.4% 3%  
346 0.1% 3%  
347 0.2% 3%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.5%  
351 0.2% 1.1%  
352 0% 1.0%  
353 0.4% 1.0%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.6%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.1% 99.4%  
254 0.1% 99.3%  
255 0.2% 99.2%  
256 0.3% 99.0%  
257 0.3% 98.7%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 0.5% 97%  
263 0.5% 97%  
264 0.7% 96%  
265 0.8% 95%  
266 2% 95%  
267 0.9% 93%  
268 1.4% 92%  
269 1.3% 91%  
270 0.7% 89%  
271 0.4% 89%  
272 0.5% 88%  
273 0.3% 88%  
274 0.6% 88%  
275 3% 87%  
276 1.3% 84%  
277 1.2% 83%  
278 0.8% 82% Last Result
279 0.9% 81%  
280 0.7% 80%  
281 0.7% 79%  
282 2% 78%  
283 0.6% 77%  
284 1.1% 76%  
285 3% 75%  
286 0.8% 72%  
287 1.4% 72%  
288 1.0% 70%  
289 1.4% 69%  
290 2% 68%  
291 2% 66%  
292 0.8% 64%  
293 0.8% 63%  
294 0.9% 62%  
295 0.8% 61%  
296 2% 60%  
297 1.3% 59%  
298 0.8% 58%  
299 3% 57%  
300 0.6% 54%  
301 5% 53% Median
302 0.5% 48%  
303 1.0% 47%  
304 1.3% 46%  
305 4% 45%  
306 0.6% 41%  
307 2% 41%  
308 1.2% 39%  
309 3% 37%  
310 0.7% 34%  
311 0.5% 33%  
312 2% 33%  
313 3% 31%  
314 0.9% 28%  
315 2% 27%  
316 2% 25%  
317 1.1% 23%  
318 0.9% 22%  
319 2% 21%  
320 3% 19%  
321 1.3% 17%  
322 0.9% 15%  
323 2% 14%  
324 1.4% 12%  
325 1.4% 11%  
326 0.8% 10% Majority
327 0.8% 9%  
328 0.8% 8%  
329 1.4% 7%  
330 0.6% 6%  
331 0.3% 5%  
332 0.5% 5%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 0.7% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.2% 99.7%  
250 0% 99.5%  
251 0.1% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.3%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.2% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98.8%  
256 0.5% 98.6%  
257 0.3% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.7% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 0.1% 96%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 1.0% 96%  
264 1.1% 95%  
265 2% 94%  
266 0.8% 92%  
267 0.4% 91%  
268 1.3% 91%  
269 1.0% 90%  
270 0.4% 89%  
271 0.5% 88%  
272 0.5% 88%  
273 0.4% 87%  
274 4% 87% Last Result
275 1.3% 83%  
276 0.9% 82%  
277 0.4% 81%  
278 1.0% 81%  
279 3% 80%  
280 0.4% 77%  
281 1.2% 77%  
282 1.1% 75%  
283 1.2% 74%  
284 2% 73%  
285 1.2% 71%  
286 0.8% 70%  
287 1.2% 69%  
288 2% 68%  
289 2% 66%  
290 0.8% 64%  
291 1.0% 63%  
292 1.0% 62%  
293 0.7% 61%  
294 2% 61%  
295 0.6% 59%  
296 1.1% 58%  
297 1.4% 57%  
298 1.1% 56%  
299 3% 55% Median
300 5% 52%  
301 0.5% 47%  
302 0.9% 47%  
303 4% 46%  
304 0.5% 41%  
305 0.7% 41%  
306 3% 40%  
307 2% 38%  
308 2% 35%  
309 0.7% 33%  
310 3% 32%  
311 2% 29%  
312 0.5% 27%  
313 0.5% 27%  
314 2% 26%  
315 1.3% 24%  
316 2% 23%  
317 1.2% 21%  
318 2% 20%  
319 1.3% 18%  
320 2% 17%  
321 2% 15%  
322 1.1% 13%  
323 2% 12%  
324 1.1% 10%  
325 0.8% 9%  
326 0.8% 8% Majority
327 1.2% 7%  
328 0.7% 6%  
329 0.6% 5%  
330 0.3% 5%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.9% 3%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.3% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.2%  
341 0.2% 1.0%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.2% 99.5%  
238 0.1% 99.3%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.1%  
241 0.2% 98.9%  
242 0.4% 98.7%  
243 0.2% 98%  
244 0.3% 98%  
245 0.7% 98%  
246 0.4% 97%  
247 0.3% 97%  
248 0.3% 96%  
249 0.8% 96%  
250 0.5% 95%  
251 1.2% 95%  
252 1.2% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 0.6% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 2% 88%  
257 0.5% 87%  
258 1.3% 86%  
259 1.5% 85%  
260 1.2% 83%  
261 2% 82%  
262 0.8% 80%  
263 2% 80%  
264 1.5% 78%  
265 0.5% 76%  
266 0.7% 76%  
267 1.3% 75%  
268 3% 74%  
269 1.0% 71%  
270 2% 70%  
271 1.2% 68%  
272 2% 66%  
273 1.0% 64%  
274 2% 63%  
275 3% 62%  
276 4% 59%  
277 0.2% 55%  
278 0.9% 55%  
279 5% 54%  
280 2% 49% Median
281 1.0% 47%  
282 0.9% 46%  
283 1.1% 45%  
284 0.8% 44%  
285 1.2% 43%  
286 0.5% 42%  
287 4% 42%  
288 0.7% 38%  
289 1.4% 37%  
290 0.5% 36%  
291 1.3% 35%  
292 2% 34%  
293 0.8% 32%  
294 2% 31%  
295 0.8% 29%  
296 2% 29%  
297 1.3% 26%  
298 0.5% 25%  
299 0.3% 25%  
300 1.5% 24%  
301 1.0% 23%  
302 0.9% 22%  
303 1.0% 21%  
304 0.5% 20%  
305 1.2% 20%  
306 3% 18%  
307 1.3% 15%  
308 0.2% 14%  
309 0.4% 13%  
310 1.1% 13%  
311 1.1% 12%  
312 1.2% 11%  
313 0.5% 10%  
314 0.9% 9%  
315 0.7% 8%  
316 0.6% 8%  
317 0.8% 7%  
318 0.6% 6%  
319 0.7% 6%  
320 0.7% 5%  
321 0.5% 4% Last Result
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.2% 3%  
325 0.2% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.6% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.4%  
329 0.3% 1.1%  
330 0.1% 0.8%  
331 0.1% 0.7%  
332 0% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.5%  
334 0% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.2% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.1%  
239 0.2% 99.0%  
240 0.3% 98.8%  
241 0.3% 98%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.3% 97%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.4% 96%  
248 0.7% 96%  
249 0.5% 95%  
250 0.8% 94%  
251 2% 94%  
252 0.8% 92%  
253 1.3% 91%  
254 1.0% 90%  
255 2% 89%  
256 2% 86%  
257 0.8% 85%  
258 2% 84%  
259 2% 82%  
260 1.1% 81%  
261 0.9% 80%  
262 1.2% 79%  
263 2% 77%  
264 1.1% 76%  
265 3% 75%  
266 0.7% 72%  
267 2% 71%  
268 1.0% 69%  
269 2% 68%  
270 0.5% 66%  
271 1.0% 66%  
272 3% 65%  
273 3% 62%  
274 2% 59%  
275 2% 57%  
276 0.8% 55%  
277 0.8% 54%  
278 5% 53% Median
279 0.9% 48%  
280 2% 47%  
281 0.5% 45%  
282 0.9% 45%  
283 2% 44%  
284 1.3% 42%  
285 0.6% 41%  
286 0.9% 40%  
287 3% 40%  
288 0.7% 37%  
289 3% 36%  
290 1.0% 33%  
291 1.3% 32%  
292 0.7% 31%  
293 2% 30%  
294 2% 28%  
295 0.2% 25%  
296 0.2% 25%  
297 0.5% 25%  
298 2% 24%  
299 0.9% 23%  
300 0.7% 22%  
301 1.0% 21%  
302 0.7% 20%  
303 0.5% 19%  
304 2% 19%  
305 3% 17%  
306 0.5% 14%  
307 0.6% 14%  
308 0.4% 13%  
309 1.0% 13%  
310 2% 12%  
311 0.7% 10%  
312 0.7% 9%  
313 0.4% 8%  
314 0.8% 8%  
315 0.8% 7%  
316 1.0% 6%  
317 0.6% 5% Last Result
318 0.4% 5%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.2% 4%  
321 0.4% 4%  
322 0.8% 3%  
323 0.2% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.6% 1.5% Majority
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.4%  
231 0.2% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0.4% 98.9%  
235 0.6% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.1% 98%  
238 0.5% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 1.0% 96%  
241 2% 95%  
242 2% 93%  
243 0.3% 91%  
244 0.2% 91%  
245 0.3% 90%  
246 1.1% 90%  
247 0.4% 89%  
248 0.4% 89%  
249 3% 88%  
250 2% 85%  
251 1.0% 83%  
252 1.0% 82%  
253 1.1% 81%  
254 0.6% 80%  
255 0.1% 80%  
256 0.2% 80%  
257 2% 80%  
258 3% 77%  
259 1.5% 75%  
260 0.4% 73%  
261 1.5% 73%  
262 1.4% 71%  
263 2% 70%  
264 3% 68%  
265 0.5% 65%  
266 1.3% 65% Last Result
267 2% 63%  
268 1.3% 62%  
269 0.2% 61%  
270 0.3% 60%  
271 0.2% 60%  
272 2% 60%  
273 8% 58%  
274 2% 50%  
275 0.9% 49% Median
276 0.9% 48%  
277 0.8% 47%  
278 1.0% 46%  
279 1.3% 45%  
280 3% 44%  
281 3% 41%  
282 2% 37%  
283 0.8% 35%  
284 0.4% 35%  
285 0.9% 34%  
286 5% 33%  
287 2% 29%  
288 1.1% 27%  
289 0.3% 26%  
290 1.5% 26%  
291 2% 24%  
292 2% 22%  
293 3% 20%  
294 2% 17%  
295 2% 15%  
296 0.8% 13%  
297 1.1% 12%  
298 2% 11%  
299 0.9% 9%  
300 1.2% 8%  
301 0.6% 7%  
302 0.5% 7%  
303 0.5% 6%  
304 1.3% 6%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 0.8% 4%  
307 0.5% 3%  
308 0.4% 3%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.2% 2%  
312 0.2% 1.4%  
313 0.2% 1.2%  
314 0.2% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.7%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.6%  
228 0.1% 99.5%  
229 0.1% 99.3%  
230 0.1% 99.2%  
231 0.2% 99.1%  
232 0.6% 98.9%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 1.0% 98%  
237 1.2% 97%  
238 1.1% 95%  
239 1.0% 94%  
240 0.9% 93%  
241 1.4% 92%  
242 0.7% 91%  
243 0.3% 90%  
244 0.2% 90%  
245 0.7% 90%  
246 1.1% 89%  
247 0.4% 88%  
248 4% 88%  
249 1.2% 84%  
250 0.9% 83%  
251 1.0% 82%  
252 1.0% 81%  
253 0.2% 80%  
254 1.0% 80%  
255 2% 79%  
256 1.3% 77%  
257 1.4% 75%  
258 2% 74%  
259 0.9% 72%  
260 1.3% 71%  
261 2% 69%  
262 0.7% 67% Last Result
263 2% 66%  
264 1.0% 65%  
265 0.9% 64%  
266 1.0% 63%  
267 1.5% 62%  
268 0.3% 60%  
269 0.6% 60%  
270 2% 59%  
271 0.9% 58%  
272 6% 57%  
273 3% 51% Median
274 2% 48%  
275 0.3% 47%  
276 0.6% 46%  
277 2% 46%  
278 3% 44%  
279 1.4% 41%  
280 2% 39%  
281 2% 37%  
282 0.8% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 31%  
285 1.1% 29%  
286 2% 28%  
287 1.5% 26%  
288 1.5% 25%  
289 0.9% 24%  
290 1.2% 23%  
291 3% 22%  
292 1.0% 18%  
293 3% 17%  
294 0.8% 14%  
295 2% 13%  
296 2% 11%  
297 0.9% 10%  
298 1.4% 9%  
299 0.4% 7%  
300 0.6% 7%  
301 1.0% 6%  
302 0.3% 5%  
303 1.0% 5%  
304 0.5% 4%  
305 0.2% 4%  
306 1.0% 3%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.2% 1.4%  
311 0.1% 1.3%  
312 0.2% 1.2%  
313 0.2% 0.9%  
314 0.1% 0.8%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0.1% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations