Opinion Poll by ICM Research for The Guardian, 21–24 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.8% 39.4–42.2% 39.0–42.6% 38.6–43.0% 38.0–43.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.8% 38.4–41.2% 38.0–41.6% 37.6–41.9% 37.0–42.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.2–9.8% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 302 278–327 272–331 269–333 262–339
Labour Party 262 274 249–299 244–308 241–312 237–322
Liberal Democrats 12 21 17–26 16–26 16–27 14–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 33 14–46 9–48 7–49 3–51
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0.4% 98.9%  
266 0.3% 98.5%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 1.3% 98%  
270 0.2% 97%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 1.0% 96%  
273 1.1% 95%  
274 0.9% 94%  
275 0.8% 93%  
276 0.3% 92%  
277 0.9% 92%  
278 1.1% 91%  
279 0.6% 90%  
280 2% 89%  
281 1.0% 87%  
282 2% 86%  
283 0.9% 84%  
284 2% 83%  
285 2% 82%  
286 1.5% 80%  
287 2% 78%  
288 1.3% 76%  
289 0.7% 75%  
290 1.1% 74%  
291 2% 73%  
292 1.0% 72%  
293 2% 71%  
294 1.0% 68%  
295 3% 67%  
296 1.1% 64%  
297 4% 63%  
298 2% 59%  
299 2% 57%  
300 2% 55%  
301 1.1% 53%  
302 4% 52% Median
303 2% 48%  
304 0.5% 47%  
305 1.1% 46%  
306 4% 45%  
307 1.1% 41%  
308 2% 40%  
309 2% 38%  
310 0.7% 36%  
311 1.0% 35%  
312 2% 34%  
313 0.9% 32%  
314 2% 31%  
315 3% 29%  
316 1.0% 26%  
317 5% 25% Last Result
318 0.8% 20%  
319 2% 19%  
320 0.7% 17%  
321 1.2% 17%  
322 0.5% 15%  
323 1.3% 15%  
324 0.6% 14%  
325 2% 13%  
326 0.6% 11% Majority
327 0.7% 10%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.5% 7%  
330 1.3% 7%  
331 2% 6%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.5% 1.5%  
337 0.4% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 99.5%  
239 0.4% 99.2%  
240 0.7% 98.8%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 1.4% 97%  
243 0.5% 96%  
244 0.9% 96%  
245 0.4% 95%  
246 0.7% 94%  
247 0.2% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 1.3% 88%  
251 0.8% 87%  
252 0.5% 86%  
253 1.3% 86%  
254 0.3% 84%  
255 2% 84%  
256 0.8% 82%  
257 2% 81%  
258 2% 79%  
259 1.3% 78%  
260 3% 76%  
261 1.1% 74%  
262 4% 73% Last Result
263 0.6% 69%  
264 2% 68%  
265 2% 66%  
266 1.2% 64%  
267 2% 63%  
268 3% 62%  
269 2% 59%  
270 2% 57%  
271 2% 56%  
272 1.2% 54%  
273 1.3% 53%  
274 4% 51% Median
275 2% 47%  
276 1.4% 45%  
277 1.3% 44%  
278 0.5% 42%  
279 2% 42%  
280 0.6% 40%  
281 4% 39%  
282 1.0% 35%  
283 2% 34%  
284 2% 33%  
285 0.8% 31%  
286 3% 30%  
287 2% 27%  
288 1.4% 25%  
289 1.0% 24%  
290 0.9% 23%  
291 0.7% 22%  
292 2% 21%  
293 2% 19%  
294 0.9% 17%  
295 2% 16%  
296 1.2% 14%  
297 0.8% 13%  
298 1.5% 12%  
299 1.1% 11%  
300 0.8% 10%  
301 0.5% 9%  
302 0.5% 8%  
303 0.2% 8%  
304 0.7% 8%  
305 1.1% 7%  
306 0.3% 6%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 1.0% 5%  
309 0.3% 4%  
310 0.2% 4%  
311 0.6% 4%  
312 0.9% 3%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 1.5%  
318 0.2% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 1.0%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.3% 0.7%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0.1% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 99.9% Last Result
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.2% 99.7%  
15 1.0% 99.5%  
16 4% 98%  
17 7% 94%  
18 11% 87%  
19 8% 76%  
20 8% 68%  
21 19% 60% Median
22 14% 41%  
23 4% 27%  
24 8% 23%  
25 2% 15%  
26 9% 13%  
27 3% 5%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0.3% 99.7%  
4 0.3% 99.4%  
5 0.5% 99.1%  
6 0.8% 98.5%  
7 0.8% 98%  
8 0.8% 97%  
9 2% 96%  
10 0.7% 94%  
11 0.1% 94%  
12 0.2% 94%  
13 1.0% 93%  
14 2% 92%  
15 1.3% 90%  
16 0.7% 89%  
17 1.3% 88%  
18 0.1% 87%  
19 1.3% 87%  
20 2% 85%  
21 3% 83%  
22 1.0% 81%  
23 2% 80%  
24 3% 78%  
25 0.8% 75%  
26 6% 74%  
27 1.3% 68%  
28 7% 67%  
29 1.5% 60%  
30 3% 59%  
31 0.7% 56%  
32 3% 55%  
33 5% 52% Median
34 0.3% 47%  
35 2% 47% Last Result
36 0.6% 45%  
37 0.3% 44%  
38 10% 44%  
39 4% 34%  
40 7% 30%  
41 4% 23%  
42 2% 19%  
43 0.8% 17%  
44 5% 16%  
45 1.1% 11%  
46 2% 10%  
47 2% 8%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.4% 2%  
51 1.3% 2%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 21% 42%  
2 15% 21%  
3 5% 7%  
4 2% 2% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 335 68% 309–360 301–366 295–370 285–374
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 335 66% 308–359 301–366 294–370 285–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 328 54% 304–352 299–358 297–361 291–368
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 327 53% 303–352 299–357 296–361 291–368
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 322 46% 300–347 295–350 291–352 285–358
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 308 18% 283–330 280–335 278–340 272–345
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 308 17% 283–329 280–334 277–339 272–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 295 8% 271–322 265–329 261–336 256–345
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 295 7% 270–321 264–329 260–335 256–345
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 303 12% 279–327 273–331 269–334 262–340
Conservative Party 317 302 11% 278–327 272–331 269–333 262–339
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 274 0.3% 250–300 244–308 242–313 239–322
Labour Party 262 274 0.2% 249–299 244–308 241–312 237–322

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0.3% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.1%  
290 0.2% 99.0%  
291 0.2% 98.8%  
292 0.4% 98.6%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 0.3% 96%  
299 0.3% 96%  
300 0.3% 96%  
301 0.6% 95%  
302 0.4% 95%  
303 0.3% 94%  
304 1.3% 94%  
305 0.6% 93%  
306 1.1% 92%  
307 0.3% 91%  
308 0.6% 91%  
309 0.3% 90%  
310 1.2% 90%  
311 2% 89%  
312 2% 87%  
313 0.9% 85%  
314 0.7% 85%  
315 2% 84%  
316 1.3% 82%  
317 2% 81%  
318 1.5% 79%  
319 0.9% 77%  
320 1.4% 76%  
321 1.4% 75%  
322 0.6% 74%  
323 2% 73%  
324 2% 71%  
325 0.8% 68%  
326 1.3% 68% Majority
327 0.9% 66%  
328 3% 65%  
329 2% 62%  
330 1.2% 61%  
331 1.5% 60%  
332 5% 58%  
333 1.1% 53%  
334 0.8% 52%  
335 3% 52% Median
336 0.6% 49%  
337 0.9% 48%  
338 3% 48%  
339 2% 45%  
340 3% 43%  
341 0.4% 40%  
342 2% 40%  
343 1.4% 38%  
344 0.9% 36%  
345 1.4% 36%  
346 5% 34%  
347 1.1% 29%  
348 2% 28%  
349 2% 26%  
350 1.3% 24%  
351 1.1% 23%  
352 1.2% 22%  
353 3% 20%  
354 1.0% 17%  
355 0.8% 16%  
356 0.8% 15% Last Result
357 0.9% 15%  
358 0.8% 14%  
359 1.0% 13%  
360 2% 12%  
361 0.3% 10%  
362 0.4% 9%  
363 2% 9%  
364 0.6% 7%  
365 0.4% 6%  
366 0.8% 6%  
367 0.9% 5%  
368 0.3% 4%  
369 0.7% 4%  
370 1.4% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.3% 1.2%  
373 0.2% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.3%  
287 0.1% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 99.2%  
289 0.2% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 98.8%  
291 0.2% 98.7%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.6% 98%  
295 0.2% 97%  
296 0.6% 97%  
297 0.3% 96%  
298 0.2% 96%  
299 0.3% 96%  
300 0.3% 96%  
301 0.8% 95%  
302 0.4% 94%  
303 0.8% 94%  
304 1.1% 93%  
305 0.3% 92%  
306 1.1% 92%  
307 0.2% 91%  
308 1.0% 90%  
309 1.1% 89%  
310 0.9% 88%  
311 0.9% 87%  
312 2% 87%  
313 1.2% 85%  
314 0.4% 84%  
315 3% 83%  
316 1.1% 81%  
317 1.3% 80%  
318 2% 78%  
319 1.0% 77%  
320 1.3% 76%  
321 1.5% 74%  
322 1.2% 73%  
323 4% 72%  
324 1.3% 68%  
325 0.6% 67%  
326 0.9% 66% Majority
327 1.0% 65%  
328 3% 64%  
329 1.3% 61%  
330 2% 60%  
331 2% 58%  
332 3% 56%  
333 1.5% 53%  
334 0.6% 51%  
335 2% 50% Median
336 1.2% 49%  
337 2% 47%  
338 2% 46%  
339 2% 43%  
340 2% 42%  
341 1.2% 40%  
342 2% 39%  
343 1.1% 37%  
344 1.3% 36%  
345 4% 34%  
346 2% 30%  
347 4% 28%  
348 0.7% 25%  
349 0.9% 24%  
350 1.1% 23%  
351 1.0% 22%  
352 0.8% 21% Last Result
353 3% 20%  
354 1.0% 17%  
355 0.9% 16%  
356 1.1% 15%  
357 0.5% 13%  
358 0.6% 13%  
359 3% 12%  
360 0.7% 10%  
361 0.4% 9%  
362 0.3% 9%  
363 2% 8%  
364 0.7% 6%  
365 0.7% 6%  
366 0.9% 5%  
367 0.4% 4%  
368 0.4% 4%  
369 0.7% 3%  
370 2% 3%  
371 0.2% 1.1%  
372 0.2% 0.9%  
373 0.1% 0.7%  
374 0.2% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.4% 99.1%  
295 0.5% 98.7%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.6% 97%  
299 2% 97%  
300 1.4% 95%  
301 0.5% 93%  
302 1.4% 93%  
303 1.3% 91%  
304 0.2% 90%  
305 2% 90%  
306 1.4% 88%  
307 1.3% 87%  
308 0.5% 85%  
309 1.1% 85%  
310 0.9% 84%  
311 2% 83%  
312 0.8% 81%  
313 5% 80% Last Result
314 1.0% 75%  
315 3% 74%  
316 2% 71%  
317 1.0% 69%  
318 2% 68%  
319 0.7% 66%  
320 1.0% 65%  
321 2% 64%  
322 2% 62%  
323 1.4% 60%  
324 3% 59%  
325 2% 56%  
326 0.5% 54% Majority
327 2% 53%  
328 4% 52% Median
329 1.2% 48%  
330 2% 47%  
331 0.9% 45%  
332 3% 44%  
333 4% 41%  
334 1.5% 37%  
335 3% 36%  
336 1.3% 33%  
337 1.3% 32%  
338 2% 30%  
339 1.5% 28%  
340 1.1% 27%  
341 0.8% 26%  
342 1.4% 25%  
343 2% 24%  
344 1.2% 22%  
345 2% 21%  
346 1.5% 19%  
347 0.7% 17%  
348 2% 17%  
349 0.8% 14%  
350 3% 13%  
351 0.4% 11%  
352 1.4% 11%  
353 0.8% 9%  
354 0.4% 8%  
355 0.6% 8%  
356 1.0% 7%  
357 1.2% 6%  
358 1.0% 5%  
359 0.4% 4%  
360 0.2% 4%  
361 1.0% 3%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.2% 0.9%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.3%  
294 0.5% 98.9%  
295 0.5% 98%  
296 0.4% 98%  
297 0.4% 97%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 2% 96%  
300 1.1% 94%  
301 0.7% 93%  
302 1.3% 92%  
303 1.4% 91%  
304 0.2% 89%  
305 3% 89%  
306 1.2% 87%  
307 1.2% 85%  
308 0.3% 84%  
309 0.9% 84% Last Result
310 2% 83%  
311 0.4% 81%  
312 5% 80%  
313 1.4% 76%  
314 0.9% 74%  
315 4% 73%  
316 1.3% 69%  
317 0.9% 68%  
318 3% 67%  
319 0.6% 64%  
320 1.3% 64%  
321 2% 62%  
322 2% 61%  
323 1.2% 58%  
324 2% 57%  
325 2% 55%  
326 1.4% 53% Majority
327 1.3% 51%  
328 3% 50% Median
329 1.0% 47%  
330 2% 46%  
331 1.0% 44%  
332 5% 43%  
333 2% 38%  
334 1.0% 36%  
335 3% 35%  
336 1.3% 32%  
337 2% 31%  
338 1.3% 29%  
339 1.1% 28%  
340 1.0% 26%  
341 1.3% 25%  
342 2% 24%  
343 1.3% 22%  
344 0.7% 21%  
345 2% 20%  
346 1.0% 18%  
347 2% 17%  
348 2% 15%  
349 0.7% 13%  
350 2% 12%  
351 0.4% 10%  
352 2% 10%  
353 0.6% 8%  
354 0.5% 8%  
355 0.7% 7%  
356 0.7% 7%  
357 1.4% 6%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.3% 4%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.4% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 1.3%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.3% 99.2%  
289 0.5% 98.8%  
290 0.8% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.9% 97%  
293 0.6% 96%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.4% 95%  
296 0.4% 95%  
297 1.1% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 0.9% 92%  
300 0.9% 91%  
301 2% 90%  
302 3% 88%  
303 2% 86%  
304 1.5% 83%  
305 0.8% 82%  
306 0.8% 81%  
307 2% 80%  
308 1.2% 78%  
309 0.8% 77%  
310 0.6% 76%  
311 0.8% 76%  
312 0.6% 75%  
313 1.0% 74%  
314 2% 73%  
315 2% 72%  
316 4% 70%  
317 4% 66%  
318 3% 62%  
319 2% 58%  
320 2% 56%  
321 5% 55%  
322 0.5% 50%  
323 2% 50% Median
324 0.4% 48%  
325 1.4% 48%  
326 2% 46% Majority
327 3% 44%  
328 2% 42%  
329 0.8% 40% Last Result
330 3% 39%  
331 2% 36%  
332 3% 34%  
333 1.2% 32%  
334 0.5% 31%  
335 1.0% 30%  
336 1.3% 29%  
337 3% 28%  
338 0.6% 25%  
339 5% 24%  
340 2% 19%  
341 1.1% 17%  
342 0.7% 16%  
343 1.3% 15%  
344 0.6% 14%  
345 0.4% 13%  
346 1.4% 13%  
347 1.4% 11%  
348 2% 10%  
349 2% 8%  
350 2% 6%  
351 0.6% 3%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.6% 2%  
355 0.3% 1.5%  
356 0.2% 1.2%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.4% 99.5%  
274 0.2% 99.1%  
275 0.3% 98.9%  
276 0.5% 98.6%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 2% 97%  
281 1.3% 94%  
282 2% 93%  
283 2% 91%  
284 1.5% 89%  
285 0.4% 87%  
286 0.5% 87%  
287 0.6% 87%  
288 1.4% 86%  
289 1.1% 85%  
290 2% 83%  
291 5% 81%  
292 0.6% 76%  
293 3% 75%  
294 1.4% 72%  
295 0.8% 71%  
296 0.7% 70%  
297 1.2% 69%  
298 3% 68%  
299 2% 66%  
300 3% 64%  
301 0.8% 61% Last Result
302 2% 61%  
303 2% 58%  
304 2% 56%  
305 1.2% 54%  
306 0.7% 53%  
307 1.2% 52% Median
308 1.0% 51%  
309 4% 50%  
310 1.1% 46%  
311 2% 45%  
312 4% 42%  
313 5% 39%  
314 3% 34%  
315 2% 31%  
316 2% 29%  
317 0.9% 27%  
318 0.6% 26%  
319 0.6% 25%  
320 0.7% 25%  
321 0.9% 24%  
322 1.1% 23%  
323 2% 22%  
324 1.0% 20%  
325 0.9% 19%  
326 1.5% 18% Majority
327 2% 17%  
328 3% 15%  
329 2% 12%  
330 0.6% 10%  
331 1.2% 10%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.0% 7%  
334 0.5% 6%  
335 0.4% 5%  
336 0.5% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.8% 4%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.6% 2%  
342 0.5% 1.4%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.5%  
273 0.5% 99.4%  
274 0.5% 98.9%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.5% 97%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 2% 96%  
281 1.2% 94%  
282 2% 93%  
283 2% 90%  
284 2% 88%  
285 0.7% 87%  
286 0.5% 86%  
287 2% 86%  
288 0.9% 84%  
289 2% 83%  
290 5% 82%  
291 2% 77%  
292 0.5% 75%  
293 3% 74%  
294 0.3% 71%  
295 0.9% 71%  
296 2% 70%  
297 2% 68% Last Result
298 3% 66%  
299 2% 64%  
300 2% 62%  
301 1.2% 60%  
302 2% 58%  
303 2% 56%  
304 2% 54%  
305 0.6% 53%  
306 0.9% 52%  
307 0.8% 51% Median
308 1.5% 50%  
309 4% 49%  
310 1.5% 45%  
311 2% 43%  
312 5% 41%  
313 3% 36%  
314 4% 33%  
315 2% 29%  
316 2% 28%  
317 1.2% 26%  
318 0.5% 25%  
319 0.7% 25%  
320 1.2% 24%  
321 2% 23%  
322 1.2% 21%  
323 1.0% 20%  
324 0.3% 19%  
325 2% 18%  
326 2% 17% Majority
327 1.2% 14%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 12%  
330 0.7% 10%  
331 1.2% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.0% 6%  
334 0.4% 5%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.4% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.3% 99.3%  
260 1.4% 98.9%  
261 0.8% 98%  
262 0.4% 97%  
263 0.5% 96%  
264 0.4% 96%  
265 1.2% 96%  
266 0.4% 94%  
267 2% 94%  
268 0.3% 92%  
269 0.3% 91%  
270 0.7% 91%  
271 3% 90%  
272 0.8% 88%  
273 0.5% 87%  
274 1.2% 87%  
275 0.8% 85%  
276 1.1% 85%  
277 3% 84%  
278 0.8% 80% Last Result
279 1.1% 79%  
280 1.1% 78%  
281 0.9% 77%  
282 0.7% 76%  
283 3% 76%  
284 2% 72%  
285 3% 70%  
286 2% 66%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 1.5% 63%  
289 1.4% 62%  
290 1.4% 60%  
291 2% 59%  
292 2% 57%  
293 1.3% 54%  
294 1.2% 53%  
295 2% 52% Median
296 0.5% 50%  
297 2% 49%  
298 2% 47%  
299 3% 45%  
300 3% 43%  
301 1.3% 40%  
302 3% 39%  
303 0.9% 36%  
304 1.0% 35%  
305 0.4% 34%  
306 1.5% 33%  
307 4% 32%  
308 1.1% 28%  
309 2% 27%  
310 1.2% 26%  
311 0.9% 24%  
312 1.4% 24%  
313 2% 22%  
314 0.4% 20%  
315 3% 20%  
316 0.4% 17%  
317 1.2% 16%  
318 1.3% 15%  
319 1.3% 14%  
320 0.8% 13%  
321 1.2% 12%  
322 0.7% 11%  
323 0.5% 10%  
324 1.1% 9%  
325 0.2% 8%  
326 1.2% 8% Majority
327 0.9% 7%  
328 0.2% 6%  
329 0.8% 6%  
330 0.5% 5%  
331 0.2% 4%  
332 0.2% 4%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.7% 3%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.1% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 1.1%  
343 0.3% 1.0%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.3% 99.4%  
258 0.2% 99.1%  
259 0.4% 98.9%  
260 1.3% 98.5%  
261 0.8% 97%  
262 0.2% 96%  
263 1.0% 96%  
264 0.2% 95%  
265 1.0% 95%  
266 0.3% 94%  
267 2% 94%  
268 0.5% 91%  
269 0.2% 91%  
270 2% 91%  
271 1.3% 89%  
272 0.8% 87%  
273 0.9% 86%  
274 0.9% 86% Last Result
275 0.8% 85%  
276 0.8% 84%  
277 3% 83%  
278 1.3% 80%  
279 1.0% 78%  
280 1.3% 77%  
281 2% 76%  
282 2% 74%  
283 0.7% 72%  
284 5% 71%  
285 2% 67%  
286 1.0% 65%  
287 1.4% 64%  
288 2% 62%  
289 0.7% 60%  
290 2% 60%  
291 2% 58%  
292 3% 56%  
293 1.3% 53%  
294 0.5% 52%  
295 3% 51% Median
296 0.9% 49%  
297 0.9% 48%  
298 4% 47%  
299 3% 43%  
300 1.4% 41%  
301 2% 39%  
302 3% 38%  
303 0.9% 35%  
304 1.3% 34%  
305 0.5% 33%  
306 3% 32%  
307 2% 29%  
308 0.6% 27%  
309 1.3% 26%  
310 1.4% 25%  
311 0.9% 24%  
312 1.2% 23%  
313 2% 22%  
314 2% 20%  
315 2% 18%  
316 0.6% 16%  
317 0.9% 16%  
318 1.1% 15%  
319 2% 14%  
320 0.8% 11%  
321 0.7% 11%  
322 0.4% 10%  
323 0.4% 9%  
324 1.1% 9%  
325 0.7% 8%  
326 1.3% 7% Majority
327 0.3% 6%  
328 0.2% 6%  
329 0.9% 6%  
330 0.3% 5%  
331 0.2% 4%  
332 0.3% 4%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.6% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.5%  
340 0.1% 1.3%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.3% 0.9%  
344 0% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.3% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.5% 98.9%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.6% 98%  
270 0.8% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.7% 96%  
273 1.2% 96%  
274 0.8% 94%  
275 0.6% 94%  
276 0.6% 93%  
277 0.5% 92%  
278 1.3% 92%  
279 0.9% 90%  
280 1.2% 90%  
281 1.1% 88%  
282 2% 87%  
283 1.1% 85%  
284 1.4% 84%  
285 2% 83%  
286 0.9% 80%  
287 1.3% 79%  
288 2% 78%  
289 1.3% 76%  
290 1.0% 75%  
291 1.2% 74%  
292 0.6% 73%  
293 2% 72%  
294 1.0% 69%  
295 3% 68%  
296 0.9% 65%  
297 2% 64%  
298 4% 62%  
299 2% 58%  
300 2% 56%  
301 1.4% 54%  
302 3% 53% Median
303 1.3% 50%  
304 1.4% 49%  
305 2% 48%  
306 3% 46%  
307 1.1% 43%  
308 2% 42%  
309 2% 40%  
310 1.2% 38%  
311 0.7% 37%  
312 3% 36%  
313 0.8% 33%  
314 1.4% 32%  
315 4% 31%  
316 0.9% 27%  
317 2% 26%  
318 5% 25%  
319 0.4% 20%  
320 2% 19%  
321 0.6% 17% Last Result
322 0.6% 16%  
323 1.3% 16%  
324 0.9% 15%  
325 2% 14%  
326 1.2% 12% Majority
327 0.9% 11%  
328 2% 10%  
329 0.6% 8%  
330 1.1% 7%  
331 2% 6%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 0.8%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.2% 99.5%  
263 0.2% 99.3%  
264 0.2% 99.1%  
265 0.4% 98.9%  
266 0.3% 98.5%  
267 0.2% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 1.3% 98%  
270 0.2% 97%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 1.0% 96%  
273 1.1% 95%  
274 0.9% 94%  
275 0.8% 93%  
276 0.3% 92%  
277 0.9% 92%  
278 1.1% 91%  
279 0.6% 90%  
280 2% 89%  
281 1.0% 87%  
282 2% 86%  
283 0.9% 84%  
284 2% 83%  
285 2% 82%  
286 1.5% 80%  
287 2% 78%  
288 1.3% 76%  
289 0.7% 75%  
290 1.1% 74%  
291 2% 73%  
292 1.0% 72%  
293 2% 71%  
294 1.0% 68%  
295 3% 67%  
296 1.1% 64%  
297 4% 63%  
298 2% 59%  
299 2% 57%  
300 2% 55%  
301 1.1% 53%  
302 4% 52% Median
303 2% 48%  
304 0.5% 47%  
305 1.1% 46%  
306 4% 45%  
307 1.1% 41%  
308 2% 40%  
309 2% 38%  
310 0.7% 36%  
311 1.0% 35%  
312 2% 34%  
313 0.9% 32%  
314 2% 31%  
315 3% 29%  
316 1.0% 26%  
317 5% 25% Last Result
318 0.8% 20%  
319 2% 19%  
320 0.7% 17%  
321 1.2% 17%  
322 0.5% 15%  
323 1.3% 15%  
324 0.6% 14%  
325 2% 13%  
326 0.6% 11% Majority
327 0.7% 10%  
328 2% 9%  
329 0.5% 7%  
330 1.3% 7%  
331 2% 6%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.5% 1.5%  
337 0.4% 1.0%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.6% 99.3%  
241 0.7% 98.6%  
242 1.2% 98%  
243 1.0% 97%  
244 1.0% 96%  
245 0.3% 95%  
246 0.1% 94%  
247 0.5% 94%  
248 2% 94%  
249 1.2% 91%  
250 3% 90%  
251 0.5% 88%  
252 0.5% 87%  
253 2% 87%  
254 0.6% 85%  
255 2% 84%  
256 0.3% 82%  
257 0.7% 82%  
258 1.2% 81%  
259 2% 80%  
260 1.1% 78%  
261 3% 77%  
262 2% 74%  
263 3% 72%  
264 2% 69%  
265 2% 67%  
266 1.4% 66% Last Result
267 1.1% 64%  
268 3% 63%  
269 1.2% 60%  
270 2% 58%  
271 3% 57%  
272 0.6% 54%  
273 1.4% 54%  
274 3% 52% Median
275 2% 50%  
276 3% 48%  
277 1.2% 45%  
278 0.6% 43%  
279 1.4% 43%  
280 2% 41%  
281 3% 40%  
282 1.1% 37%  
283 3% 36%  
284 1.0% 33%  
285 2% 32%  
286 1.5% 31%  
287 3% 29%  
288 2% 26%  
289 1.0% 24%  
290 1.0% 23%  
291 0.7% 22%  
292 2% 22%  
293 2% 20%  
294 0.9% 18%  
295 2% 17%  
296 2% 15%  
297 0.5% 14%  
298 0.7% 13%  
299 1.1% 12%  
300 2% 11%  
301 0.7% 10%  
302 0.6% 9%  
303 0.3% 8%  
304 0.4% 8%  
305 1.0% 8%  
306 0.6% 7%  
307 0.2% 6%  
308 0.7% 6%  
309 0.7% 5%  
310 0.3% 4%  
311 0.6% 4%  
312 0.5% 3%  
313 0.5% 3%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.5%  
319 0.1% 1.3%  
320 0.2% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 99.5%  
239 0.4% 99.2%  
240 0.7% 98.8%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 1.4% 97%  
243 0.5% 96%  
244 0.9% 96%  
245 0.4% 95%  
246 0.7% 94%  
247 0.2% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 1.3% 88%  
251 0.8% 87%  
252 0.5% 86%  
253 1.3% 86%  
254 0.3% 84%  
255 2% 84%  
256 0.8% 82%  
257 2% 81%  
258 2% 79%  
259 1.3% 78%  
260 3% 76%  
261 1.1% 74%  
262 4% 73% Last Result
263 0.6% 69%  
264 2% 68%  
265 2% 66%  
266 1.2% 64%  
267 2% 63%  
268 3% 62%  
269 2% 59%  
270 2% 57%  
271 2% 56%  
272 1.2% 54%  
273 1.3% 53%  
274 4% 51% Median
275 2% 47%  
276 1.4% 45%  
277 1.3% 44%  
278 0.5% 42%  
279 2% 42%  
280 0.6% 40%  
281 4% 39%  
282 1.0% 35%  
283 2% 34%  
284 2% 33%  
285 0.8% 31%  
286 3% 30%  
287 2% 27%  
288 1.4% 25%  
289 1.0% 24%  
290 0.9% 23%  
291 0.7% 22%  
292 2% 21%  
293 2% 19%  
294 0.9% 17%  
295 2% 16%  
296 1.2% 14%  
297 0.8% 13%  
298 1.5% 12%  
299 1.1% 11%  
300 0.8% 10%  
301 0.5% 9%  
302 0.5% 8%  
303 0.2% 8%  
304 0.7% 8%  
305 1.1% 7%  
306 0.3% 6%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 1.0% 5%  
309 0.3% 4%  
310 0.2% 4%  
311 0.6% 4%  
312 0.9% 3%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.1% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 1.5%  
318 0.2% 1.4%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.1% 1.0%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.3% 0.7%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0% 0.2% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0.1% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations