Opinion Poll by ComRes for Sunday Express, 26–27 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 40.3% 38.9–41.7% 38.5–42.1% 38.2–42.5% 37.5–43.1%
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.3% 37.9–40.7% 37.5–41.1% 37.2–41.4% 36.5–42.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.9%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.1% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Green Party 1.6% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.2% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 292 266–312 260–318 254–322 245–330
Conservative Party 317 282 265–307 261–313 257–319 250–329
Liberal Democrats 12 21 18–27 17–28 17–28 15–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 33 18–47 9–49 7–51 6–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0.2% 99.2%  
250 0.2% 98.9%  
251 0.2% 98.7%  
252 0.4% 98.5%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.2% 97%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 0.3% 97%  
258 0.5% 97%  
259 0.2% 96%  
260 0.9% 96%  
261 0.4% 95%  
262 0.4% 95% Last Result
263 1.2% 94%  
264 0.7% 93%  
265 2% 92%  
266 0.9% 90%  
267 0.8% 89%  
268 1.2% 89%  
269 0.4% 87%  
270 0.8% 87%  
271 0.9% 86%  
272 1.1% 85%  
273 2% 84%  
274 1.4% 82%  
275 1.3% 80%  
276 1.3% 79%  
277 2% 78%  
278 0.8% 76%  
279 3% 75%  
280 0.7% 73%  
281 2% 72%  
282 0.8% 70%  
283 2% 69%  
284 1.2% 67%  
285 2% 66%  
286 2% 63%  
287 2% 61%  
288 3% 59%  
289 1.4% 57%  
290 0.8% 55%  
291 3% 54%  
292 2% 51% Median
293 3% 49%  
294 2% 46%  
295 1.3% 44%  
296 5% 43%  
297 2% 38%  
298 2% 36%  
299 3% 34%  
300 1.0% 31%  
301 2% 30%  
302 2% 28%  
303 2% 26%  
304 3% 24%  
305 2% 21%  
306 1.4% 19%  
307 2% 17%  
308 1.2% 15%  
309 1.2% 14%  
310 1.4% 13%  
311 1.0% 12%  
312 1.4% 11%  
313 0.8% 9%  
314 1.5% 8%  
315 0.7% 7%  
316 0.3% 6%  
317 0.7% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.4% 4%  
320 0.3% 4%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.5% 3%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.4% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.3%  
253 0.2% 99.1%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.4% 98.7%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.6% 97%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 0.7% 96%  
261 1.1% 95%  
262 1.3% 94%  
263 1.3% 93%  
264 1.5% 92%  
265 1.3% 90%  
266 0.9% 89%  
267 2% 88%  
268 1.2% 86%  
269 3% 85%  
270 2% 82%  
271 3% 80%  
272 3% 78%  
273 2% 75%  
274 3% 73%  
275 2% 71%  
276 4% 68%  
277 1.5% 64%  
278 2% 62%  
279 3% 60%  
280 3% 57%  
281 2% 54%  
282 3% 53% Median
283 2% 50%  
284 2% 48%  
285 0.5% 46%  
286 2% 45%  
287 2% 43%  
288 2% 41%  
289 2% 39%  
290 3% 37%  
291 1.2% 34%  
292 1.4% 33%  
293 2% 32%  
294 3% 30%  
295 3% 27%  
296 2% 24%  
297 0.6% 22%  
298 2% 21%  
299 2% 19%  
300 0.7% 18%  
301 2% 17%  
302 0.9% 15%  
303 1.0% 14%  
304 0.3% 13%  
305 0.8% 13%  
306 2% 12%  
307 0.5% 10%  
308 0.8% 10%  
309 0.8% 9%  
310 0.6% 8%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 1.4% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.6% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0.3% 3% Last Result
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.1% 1.1% Majority
327 0.3% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 1.5% 99.3%  
17 6% 98%  
18 7% 92%  
19 6% 85%  
20 10% 79%  
21 24% 69% Median
22 4% 45%  
23 8% 41%  
24 6% 33%  
25 6% 27%  
26 9% 21%  
27 5% 12%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.1% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0.7% 99.6%  
7 2% 98.9%  
8 2% 97%  
9 1.2% 95%  
10 0.1% 94%  
11 0.1% 94%  
12 0.1% 94%  
13 0.3% 94%  
14 0.2% 94%  
15 0.1% 93%  
16 0.4% 93%  
17 2% 93%  
18 1.0% 91%  
19 1.0% 90%  
20 1.1% 89%  
21 2% 87%  
22 6% 85%  
23 5% 79%  
24 4% 75%  
25 1.1% 71%  
26 2% 70%  
27 0.4% 67%  
28 4% 67%  
29 6% 63%  
30 2% 57%  
31 1.2% 55%  
32 2% 54%  
33 3% 52% Median
34 0.3% 49%  
35 7% 48% Last Result
36 2% 42%  
37 0.3% 40%  
38 6% 39%  
39 4% 33%  
40 3% 29%  
41 1.1% 26%  
42 2% 25%  
43 0.9% 24%  
44 5% 23%  
45 2% 18%  
46 3% 15%  
47 5% 12%  
48 1.4% 7%  
49 0.7% 6%  
50 1.3% 5%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.1%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 18% 36%  
2 13% 18%  
3 4% 5%  
4 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 348 87% 323–365 317–369 311–373 301–380
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 347 87% 322–364 316–368 311–372 301–380
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 316 31% 295–342 289–348 285–354 276–364
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 315 31% 295–341 289–347 284–353 275–364
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 326 50% 302–341 296–346 291–349 281–356
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 325 48% 301–340 296–345 290–348 280–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 315 24% 289–335 283–341 277–346 266–355
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 314 22% 288–335 282–341 276–345 266–354
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 304 13% 289–328 284–334 281–339 274–349
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 293 2% 267–312 261–318 254–323 246–331
Labour Party 262 292 1.4% 266–312 260–318 254–322 245–330
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 283 1.2% 266–308 262–314 258–319 250–329
Conservative Party 317 282 1.1% 265–307 261–313 257–319 250–329

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.3% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.1%  
305 0.2% 98.9%  
306 0.3% 98.7%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.1% 98%  
309 0.2% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 0.4% 97%  
313 0.3% 97% Last Result
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.6% 96%  
316 0.6% 96%  
317 0.7% 95%  
318 1.4% 94%  
319 0.8% 93%  
320 0.6% 92%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 0.8% 91%  
323 0.5% 90%  
324 2% 90%  
325 0.8% 88%  
326 0.3% 87% Majority
327 1.0% 87%  
328 0.9% 86%  
329 2% 85%  
330 0.7% 83%  
331 2% 82%  
332 2% 81%  
333 0.6% 79%  
334 2% 78%  
335 3% 76%  
336 3% 73%  
337 2% 70%  
338 1.4% 68%  
339 1.2% 67%  
340 3% 66%  
341 2% 63%  
342 2% 61%  
343 2% 59%  
344 2% 57%  
345 0.5% 55%  
346 2% 54% Median
347 2% 52%  
348 3% 50%  
349 2% 47%  
350 3% 46%  
351 3% 43%  
352 2% 40%  
353 1.5% 38%  
354 4% 36%  
355 2% 32%  
356 3% 29%  
357 2% 27%  
358 3% 25%  
359 3% 22%  
360 2% 20%  
361 3% 18%  
362 1.2% 15%  
363 2% 14%  
364 0.9% 12%  
365 1.3% 11%  
366 1.5% 10%  
367 1.3% 8%  
368 1.3% 7%  
369 1.1% 6%  
370 0.7% 5%  
371 0.8% 4%  
372 0.6% 3%  
373 0.4% 3%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.4% 2%  
376 0.3% 1.3%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.1% 0.9%  
379 0.2% 0.8%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.2% 99.5%  
302 0.1% 99.4%  
303 0.3% 99.3%  
304 0.1% 98.9%  
305 0.2% 98.8%  
306 0.3% 98.6%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.2% 98%  
309 0.2% 98% Last Result
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 0.5% 97%  
313 0.3% 97%  
314 0.2% 96%  
315 0.6% 96%  
316 0.7% 96%  
317 0.7% 95%  
318 1.5% 94%  
319 0.8% 93%  
320 0.9% 92%  
321 0.3% 91%  
322 0.9% 91%  
323 0.9% 90%  
324 1.4% 89%  
325 0.6% 87%  
326 0.8% 87% Majority
327 0.6% 86%  
328 0.9% 85%  
329 2% 85%  
330 0.7% 82%  
331 2% 82%  
332 2% 80%  
333 1.1% 78%  
334 2% 77%  
335 3% 75%  
336 3% 72%  
337 2% 69%  
338 1.0% 67%  
339 2% 66%  
340 4% 65%  
341 1.5% 61%  
342 1.3% 59%  
343 2% 58%  
344 2% 56%  
345 0.7% 54%  
346 3% 53% Median
347 2% 51%  
348 3% 48%  
349 1.2% 46%  
350 3% 44%  
351 3% 42%  
352 2% 38%  
353 2% 36%  
354 4% 34%  
355 2% 30%  
356 3% 28%  
357 2% 25%  
358 3% 23%  
359 2% 21%  
360 2% 19%  
361 2% 17%  
362 1.3% 14%  
363 2% 13%  
364 2% 11%  
365 1.4% 10%  
366 1.1% 8%  
367 1.1% 7%  
368 1.4% 6%  
369 0.7% 5%  
370 0.8% 4%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.5% 3%  
373 0.4% 2%  
374 0.6% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.3%  
376 0.1% 1.1%  
377 0.2% 0.9%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0.1% 0.6%  
380 0.2% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.2% 99.3%  
279 0.2% 99.1%  
280 0.2% 98.9%  
281 0.2% 98.7%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.4% 97%  
287 0.3% 97%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 1.0% 96%  
290 0.4% 95%  
291 0.5% 94%  
292 1.0% 94%  
293 0.9% 93%  
294 0.8% 92%  
295 1.3% 91%  
296 0.7% 90%  
297 1.2% 89%  
298 1.4% 88%  
299 2% 87%  
300 2% 85%  
301 0.9% 83%  
302 2% 82%  
303 2% 81%  
304 2% 79%  
305 3% 78%  
306 2% 74%  
307 3% 72%  
308 2% 69%  
309 2% 67%  
310 2% 65%  
311 3% 62%  
312 3% 60%  
313 3% 57%  
314 1.4% 54%  
315 2% 52% Median
316 2% 50%  
317 2% 48%  
318 2% 46%  
319 3% 44%  
320 1.4% 42%  
321 1.3% 40%  
322 2% 39%  
323 3% 37%  
324 1.0% 34%  
325 2% 33%  
326 0.7% 31% Majority
327 0.3% 31%  
328 3% 30%  
329 1.0% 27%  
330 3% 26%  
331 0.9% 23%  
332 0.8% 22%  
333 2% 21%  
334 1.1% 20%  
335 0.7% 19%  
336 2% 18%  
337 1.2% 16%  
338 2% 15%  
339 0.6% 13%  
340 1.0% 12%  
341 0.6% 12%  
342 1.1% 11%  
343 0.8% 10%  
344 2% 9%  
345 1.1% 7%  
346 0.6% 6%  
347 0.4% 6%  
348 0.6% 5%  
349 0.2% 5%  
350 0.7% 5%  
351 0.4% 4%  
352 0.8% 4%  
353 0.1% 3%  
354 0.1% 3%  
355 0.2% 2%  
356 0.4% 2% Last Result
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.4%  
360 0.3% 1.1%  
361 0.1% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.3%  
278 0.2% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.2% 98.8%  
281 0.2% 98.6%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.4% 97%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0.4% 97%  
288 0.6% 96%  
289 1.0% 96%  
290 0.5% 94%  
291 0.7% 94%  
292 0.9% 93%  
293 0.8% 92%  
294 0.6% 92%  
295 2% 91%  
296 0.6% 89%  
297 1.2% 89%  
298 2% 87%  
299 2% 86%  
300 1.4% 84%  
301 0.9% 83%  
302 2% 82%  
303 2% 80%  
304 2% 78%  
305 4% 76%  
306 2% 72%  
307 3% 71%  
308 2% 67%  
309 3% 65%  
310 2% 62%  
311 3% 61%  
312 2% 58%  
313 3% 56%  
314 2% 53%  
315 2% 51% Median
316 2% 49%  
317 1.4% 47%  
318 2% 46%  
319 3% 43%  
320 2% 40%  
321 0.8% 39%  
322 2% 38%  
323 2% 36%  
324 2% 34%  
325 1.2% 32%  
326 1.0% 31% Majority
327 0.3% 30%  
328 3% 29%  
329 1.2% 27%  
330 3% 25%  
331 0.6% 22%  
332 0.9% 22%  
333 2% 21%  
334 1.2% 19%  
335 0.5% 18%  
336 2% 17%  
337 1.2% 15%  
338 1.4% 14%  
339 0.6% 13%  
340 1.0% 12%  
341 1.0% 11%  
342 0.7% 10%  
343 0.7% 9%  
344 2% 9%  
345 0.7% 7%  
346 0.7% 6%  
347 0.5% 5%  
348 0.5% 5%  
349 0.3% 4%  
350 0.7% 4%  
351 0.3% 4%  
352 0.7% 3% Last Result
353 0.2% 3%  
354 0.1% 2%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.3% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.5%  
359 0.2% 1.1%  
360 0.1% 0.9%  
361 0.1% 0.8%  
362 0.1% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.2% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.4%  
283 0.2% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.2% 98.8%  
286 0.2% 98.6%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 0.5% 96%  
296 0.5% 95%  
297 0.6% 95%  
298 1.5% 94%  
299 0.8% 93%  
300 0.8% 92%  
301 0.8% 91% Last Result
302 0.9% 90%  
303 2% 89%  
304 0.7% 88%  
305 1.2% 87%  
306 0.5% 86%  
307 0.6% 85%  
308 2% 85%  
309 0.8% 82%  
310 1.5% 82%  
311 1.4% 80%  
312 3% 79%  
313 0.9% 76%  
314 2% 75%  
315 3% 73%  
316 2% 70%  
317 2% 68%  
318 2% 66%  
319 2% 64%  
320 1.4% 62%  
321 2% 60%  
322 2% 58%  
323 3% 57%  
324 0.9% 53%  
325 2% 53% Median
326 2% 50% Majority
327 3% 48%  
328 3% 45%  
329 5% 43%  
330 2% 38%  
331 2% 36%  
332 2% 35%  
333 5% 33%  
334 2% 28%  
335 3% 26%  
336 2% 23%  
337 3% 21%  
338 2% 18%  
339 2% 16%  
340 3% 14%  
341 2% 12%  
342 1.4% 10%  
343 1.4% 8%  
344 1.1% 7%  
345 0.8% 6%  
346 1.1% 5%  
347 0.7% 4%  
348 0.6% 3%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.3%  
353 0.2% 1.1%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 99.3%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.2% 98.6%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.1% 98%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.2% 96%  
295 0.5% 96%  
296 0.8% 95%  
297 0.5% 94% Last Result
298 2% 94%  
299 0.6% 92%  
300 0.7% 91%  
301 0.9% 91%  
302 0.9% 90%  
303 2% 89%  
304 1.0% 87%  
305 0.7% 86%  
306 0.5% 86%  
307 0.8% 85%  
308 2% 84%  
309 0.9% 82%  
310 2% 81%  
311 2% 79%  
312 3% 78%  
313 0.8% 75%  
314 3% 74%  
315 3% 71%  
316 2% 69%  
317 2% 67%  
318 2% 65%  
319 2% 63%  
320 2% 61%  
321 2% 59%  
322 2% 56%  
323 2% 55%  
324 0.9% 53%  
325 4% 52% Median
326 2% 48% Majority
327 3% 47%  
328 4% 44%  
329 2% 40%  
330 2% 37%  
331 2% 35%  
332 3% 33%  
333 4% 30%  
334 2% 26%  
335 3% 24%  
336 2% 22%  
337 3% 20%  
338 2% 17%  
339 2% 15%  
340 3% 13%  
341 1.4% 10%  
342 0.8% 8%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.9% 6%  
345 0.7% 5%  
346 1.0% 4%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.6% 3%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.5% 2%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 0.9%  
354 0.2% 0.8%  
355 0.2% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.1% 99.5%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0.1% 99.3%  
270 0.1% 99.2%  
271 0.2% 99.1%  
272 0.4% 98.9%  
273 0.3% 98.5%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.7% 97% Last Result
279 0.3% 97%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 0.3% 96%  
282 0.5% 96%  
283 0.5% 95%  
284 0.7% 95%  
285 0.7% 94%  
286 2% 93%  
287 0.7% 91%  
288 0.7% 91%  
289 1.0% 90%  
290 1.0% 89%  
291 0.6% 88%  
292 1.4% 87%  
293 1.2% 86%  
294 2% 85%  
295 0.5% 83%  
296 1.2% 82%  
297 2% 81%  
298 0.9% 79%  
299 0.6% 78%  
300 3% 78%  
301 1.2% 75%  
302 3% 73%  
303 0.3% 71%  
304 1.0% 70%  
305 1.2% 69%  
306 2% 68%  
307 2% 66%  
308 2% 64%  
309 0.8% 62%  
310 2% 61%  
311 3% 60%  
312 2% 57%  
313 1.4% 54% Median
314 2% 53%  
315 2% 51%  
316 2% 49%  
317 3% 47%  
318 2% 44%  
319 3% 42%  
320 2% 39%  
321 3% 38%  
322 2% 35%  
323 3% 33%  
324 2% 29%  
325 4% 28%  
326 2% 24% Majority
327 2% 22%  
328 2% 20%  
329 0.9% 18%  
330 1.4% 17%  
331 2% 16%  
332 2% 14%  
333 1.2% 13%  
334 0.6% 11%  
335 2% 11%  
336 0.6% 9%  
337 0.8% 8%  
338 0.9% 8%  
339 0.7% 7%  
340 0.5% 6%  
341 1.0% 6%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.4% 4%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.4% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 1.2%  
352 0.2% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.2%  
270 0.3% 99.1%  
271 0.2% 98.9%  
272 0.2% 98.6%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.4% 98% Last Result
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.1% 97%  
278 0.8% 97%  
279 0.4% 96%  
280 0.7% 96%  
281 0.2% 95%  
282 0.6% 95%  
283 0.4% 95%  
284 0.6% 94%  
285 1.1% 94%  
286 2% 93%  
287 0.8% 91%  
288 1.1% 90%  
289 0.6% 89%  
290 1.0% 88%  
291 0.6% 88%  
292 2% 87%  
293 1.2% 85%  
294 2% 84%  
295 0.7% 82%  
296 1.1% 81%  
297 2% 80%  
298 0.8% 79%  
299 0.9% 78%  
300 3% 77%  
301 1.0% 74%  
302 3% 73%  
303 0.3% 70%  
304 0.7% 69%  
305 2% 69%  
306 1.0% 67%  
307 3% 66%  
308 2% 63%  
309 1.3% 61%  
310 1.4% 60%  
311 3% 58%  
312 2% 56%  
313 2% 54% Median
314 2% 52%  
315 2% 50%  
316 1.4% 48%  
317 3% 46%  
318 3% 43%  
319 3% 40%  
320 2% 38%  
321 2% 35%  
322 2% 33%  
323 3% 31%  
324 2% 28%  
325 3% 26%  
326 2% 22% Majority
327 2% 21%  
328 2% 19%  
329 0.9% 18%  
330 2% 17%  
331 2% 15%  
332 1.4% 13%  
333 1.2% 12%  
334 0.7% 11%  
335 1.3% 10%  
336 0.8% 9%  
337 0.9% 8%  
338 1.0% 7%  
339 0.5% 6%  
340 0.4% 6%  
341 1.0% 5%  
342 0.7% 4%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.4% 3%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.3%  
351 0.2% 1.1%  
352 0.2% 0.9%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0.1% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.5%  
276 0.2% 99.3%  
277 0.2% 99.1%  
278 0.2% 98.9%  
279 0.5% 98.7%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.5% 98%  
282 0.6% 97%  
283 0.7% 97%  
284 1.1% 96%  
285 0.8% 95%  
286 1.1% 94%  
287 1.4% 93%  
288 1.4% 92%  
289 2% 90%  
290 3% 88%  
291 2% 86%  
292 2% 84%  
293 3% 82%  
294 2% 79%  
295 3% 77%  
296 2% 74%  
297 5% 72%  
298 2% 67%  
299 2% 65%  
300 2% 64%  
301 5% 62%  
302 3% 57%  
303 3% 55% Median
304 2% 52%  
305 2% 50%  
306 0.9% 47%  
307 3% 47%  
308 2% 43%  
309 2% 42%  
310 1.4% 40%  
311 2% 38%  
312 2% 36%  
313 2% 34%  
314 2% 32%  
315 3% 30%  
316 2% 27%  
317 0.9% 25%  
318 3% 24%  
319 1.4% 21%  
320 1.5% 20%  
321 0.8% 18%  
322 2% 18%  
323 0.6% 15%  
324 0.5% 15%  
325 1.2% 14%  
326 0.7% 13% Majority
327 2% 12%  
328 0.9% 11%  
329 0.8% 10% Last Result
330 0.8% 9%  
331 0.8% 8%  
332 1.5% 7%  
333 0.6% 6%  
334 0.5% 5%  
335 0.5% 5%  
336 0.2% 4%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.2% 1.4%  
346 0.2% 1.2%  
347 0.2% 1.0%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.5%  
248 0.1% 99.4%  
249 0.2% 99.3%  
250 0.3% 99.1%  
251 0.1% 98.8%  
252 0.3% 98.7%  
253 0.5% 98%  
254 0.6% 98%  
255 0.1% 97%  
256 0.1% 97%  
257 0.3% 97%  
258 0.5% 97%  
259 0.3% 96%  
260 0.8% 96%  
261 0.4% 95%  
262 0.3% 95%  
263 0.9% 95%  
264 1.0% 94%  
265 2% 93%  
266 0.7% 91% Last Result
267 1.2% 90%  
268 1.1% 89%  
269 0.4% 88%  
270 0.9% 88%  
271 0.8% 87%  
272 1.0% 86%  
273 2% 85%  
274 1.0% 83%  
275 1.4% 82%  
276 1.2% 80%  
277 2% 79%  
278 1.1% 77%  
279 2% 76%  
280 0.7% 73%  
281 2% 73%  
282 0.8% 71%  
283 2% 70%  
284 1.3% 68%  
285 1.2% 67%  
286 3% 66%  
287 2% 63%  
288 3% 61%  
289 2% 58%  
290 0.8% 56%  
291 3% 55%  
292 1.4% 52% Median
293 2% 51%  
294 2% 48%  
295 2% 46%  
296 4% 44%  
297 2% 40%  
298 2% 37%  
299 3% 36%  
300 2% 33%  
301 1.4% 31%  
302 3% 30%  
303 2% 27%  
304 3% 25%  
305 2% 22%  
306 0.6% 20%  
307 3% 19%  
308 1.2% 16%  
309 0.9% 15%  
310 2% 14%  
311 0.8% 12%  
312 2% 12%  
313 1.0% 10%  
314 1.5% 9%  
315 0.7% 7%  
316 0.4% 7%  
317 0.7% 6%  
318 0.9% 6%  
319 0.6% 5%  
320 0.5% 4%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.6% 3%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 1.2%  
328 0.2% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.3%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
239 0% 100%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.5%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.3%  
249 0.2% 99.2%  
250 0.2% 98.9%  
251 0.2% 98.7%  
252 0.4% 98.5%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.4% 98%  
255 0.2% 97%  
256 0.3% 97%  
257 0.3% 97%  
258 0.5% 97%  
259 0.2% 96%  
260 0.9% 96%  
261 0.4% 95%  
262 0.4% 95% Last Result
263 1.2% 94%  
264 0.7% 93%  
265 2% 92%  
266 0.9% 90%  
267 0.8% 89%  
268 1.2% 89%  
269 0.4% 87%  
270 0.8% 87%  
271 0.9% 86%  
272 1.1% 85%  
273 2% 84%  
274 1.4% 82%  
275 1.3% 80%  
276 1.3% 79%  
277 2% 78%  
278 0.8% 76%  
279 3% 75%  
280 0.7% 73%  
281 2% 72%  
282 0.8% 70%  
283 2% 69%  
284 1.2% 67%  
285 2% 66%  
286 2% 63%  
287 2% 61%  
288 3% 59%  
289 1.4% 57%  
290 0.8% 55%  
291 3% 54%  
292 2% 51% Median
293 3% 49%  
294 2% 46%  
295 1.3% 44%  
296 5% 43%  
297 2% 38%  
298 2% 36%  
299 3% 34%  
300 1.0% 31%  
301 2% 30%  
302 2% 28%  
303 2% 26%  
304 3% 24%  
305 2% 21%  
306 1.4% 19%  
307 2% 17%  
308 1.2% 15%  
309 1.2% 14%  
310 1.4% 13%  
311 1.0% 12%  
312 1.4% 11%  
313 0.8% 9%  
314 1.5% 8%  
315 0.7% 7%  
316 0.3% 6%  
317 0.7% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.4% 4%  
320 0.3% 4%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.5% 3%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.4% Majority
327 0.1% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.2% 99.6%  
251 0.1% 99.5%  
252 0.1% 99.4%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.1% 99.1%  
255 0.2% 98.9%  
256 0.6% 98.7%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.5% 97%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 0.8% 96%  
262 1.4% 95%  
263 1.1% 94%  
264 1.1% 93%  
265 1.4% 92%  
266 2% 90%  
267 2% 89%  
268 1.3% 87%  
269 2% 86%  
270 2% 83%  
271 2% 81%  
272 3% 79%  
273 2% 77%  
274 3% 75%  
275 2% 72%  
276 4% 70%  
277 2% 66%  
278 2% 64%  
279 3% 62%  
280 3% 58%  
281 1.2% 56%  
282 3% 54% Median
283 2% 52%  
284 3% 49%  
285 0.7% 47%  
286 2% 46%  
287 2% 44%  
288 1.3% 42%  
289 1.5% 41%  
290 4% 39%  
291 2% 35%  
292 1.0% 34%  
293 2% 33%  
294 3% 31%  
295 3% 28%  
296 2% 25%  
297 1.1% 23%  
298 2% 22%  
299 2% 20%  
300 0.7% 18%  
301 2% 18%  
302 0.9% 15%  
303 0.6% 15%  
304 0.8% 14%  
305 0.6% 13%  
306 1.4% 13%  
307 0.9% 11%  
308 0.9% 10%  
309 0.3% 9%  
310 0.9% 9%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 1.5% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.7% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0.3% 4%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.2% 2% Last Result
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.4%  
326 0.1% 1.2% Majority
327 0.3% 1.1%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.1% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.4%  
252 0.1% 99.3%  
253 0.2% 99.1%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.4% 98.7%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.6% 97%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 0.7% 96%  
261 1.1% 95%  
262 1.3% 94%  
263 1.3% 93%  
264 1.5% 92%  
265 1.3% 90%  
266 0.9% 89%  
267 2% 88%  
268 1.2% 86%  
269 3% 85%  
270 2% 82%  
271 3% 80%  
272 3% 78%  
273 2% 75%  
274 3% 73%  
275 2% 71%  
276 4% 68%  
277 1.5% 64%  
278 2% 62%  
279 3% 60%  
280 3% 57%  
281 2% 54%  
282 3% 53% Median
283 2% 50%  
284 2% 48%  
285 0.5% 46%  
286 2% 45%  
287 2% 43%  
288 2% 41%  
289 2% 39%  
290 3% 37%  
291 1.2% 34%  
292 1.4% 33%  
293 2% 32%  
294 3% 30%  
295 3% 27%  
296 2% 24%  
297 0.6% 22%  
298 2% 21%  
299 2% 19%  
300 0.7% 18%  
301 2% 17%  
302 0.9% 15%  
303 1.0% 14%  
304 0.3% 13%  
305 0.8% 13%  
306 2% 12%  
307 0.5% 10%  
308 0.8% 10%  
309 0.8% 9%  
310 0.6% 8%  
311 0.8% 8%  
312 1.4% 7%  
313 0.7% 6%  
314 0.6% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0.3% 3% Last Result
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 2%  
322 0.1% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.1% 1.1% Majority
327 0.3% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations