Opinion Poll by BMG Research for The Independent, 3–5 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 40.0% | 38.9% | 37.3–40.6% | 36.9–41.0% | 36.5–41.4% | 35.7–42.2% |
| Conservative Party | 42.4% | 37.9% | 36.3–39.6% | 35.9–40.0% | 35.5–40.4% | 34.8–41.2% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.1–12.1% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Green Party | 1.6% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 262 | 281 | 254–296 | 248–300 | 240–303 | 235–311 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 267 | 252–294 | 246–302 | 243–313 | 237–319 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 26 | 21–28 | 19–29 | 18–30 | 15–32 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 51 | 46–54 | 44–55 | 41–56 | 29–57 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 237 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 238 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 246 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 254 | 4% | 93% | |
| 255 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 256 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 257 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 258 | 2% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 260 | 3% | 84% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 262 | 0.8% | 81% | Last Result |
| 263 | 2% | 80% | |
| 264 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 265 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 268 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 269 | 4% | 76% | |
| 270 | 4% | 72% | |
| 271 | 2% | 68% | |
| 272 | 1.4% | 66% | |
| 273 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 275 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 276 | 2% | 62% | |
| 277 | 3% | 61% | |
| 278 | 3% | 58% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 54% | |
| 280 | 3% | 54% | |
| 281 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 282 | 2% | 49% | |
| 283 | 4% | 47% | |
| 284 | 0.7% | 42% | |
| 285 | 2% | 42% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 39% | |
| 287 | 2% | 39% | |
| 288 | 8% | 37% | |
| 289 | 3% | 29% | |
| 290 | 4% | 26% | |
| 291 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 292 | 3% | 20% | |
| 293 | 4% | 17% | |
| 294 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 295 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 296 | 2% | 11% | |
| 297 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 298 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 299 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 300 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 306 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 246 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 247 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 248 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 249 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 250 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 251 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 252 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 254 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 255 | 2% | 87% | |
| 256 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 257 | 4% | 84% | |
| 258 | 4% | 81% | |
| 259 | 8% | 77% | |
| 260 | 3% | 69% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 66% | |
| 262 | 3% | 65% | |
| 263 | 3% | 62% | |
| 264 | 2% | 59% | |
| 265 | 4% | 56% | |
| 266 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 268 | 2% | 49% | |
| 269 | 4% | 48% | |
| 270 | 1.4% | 43% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 42% | |
| 272 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 41% | |
| 274 | 2% | 40% | |
| 275 | 2% | 39% | |
| 276 | 2% | 37% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 279 | 1.5% | 34% | |
| 280 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 281 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 282 | 3% | 31% | |
| 283 | 2% | 27% | |
| 284 | 2% | 26% | |
| 285 | 2% | 24% | |
| 286 | 2% | 22% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 20% | |
| 289 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 290 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 291 | 3% | 17% | |
| 292 | 2% | 14% | |
| 293 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 294 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 295 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 296 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 299 | 2% | 8% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 19 | 2% | 96% | |
| 20 | 2% | 94% | |
| 21 | 3% | 92% | |
| 22 | 5% | 89% | |
| 23 | 6% | 85% | |
| 24 | 7% | 79% | |
| 25 | 12% | 72% | |
| 26 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 27 | 28% | 43% | |
| 28 | 9% | 15% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 44 | 3% | 96% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 46 | 3% | 92% | |
| 47 | 7% | 88% | |
| 48 | 3% | 81% | |
| 49 | 2% | 78% | |
| 50 | 20% | 76% | |
| 51 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 52 | 17% | 37% | |
| 53 | 2% | 20% | |
| 54 | 12% | 17% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 56 | 3% | 4% | |
| 57 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 30% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 5% | 93% | Last Result |
| 5 | 73% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 14% | |
| 7 | 2% | 10% | |
| 8 | 7% | 8% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 363 | 96% | 336–378 | 328–383 | 317–386 | 311–392 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 357 | 94% | 331–373 | 322–378 | 312–381 | 306–387 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 323 | 43% | 307–350 | 303–357 | 299–366 | 291–373 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 317 | 37% | 302–345 | 298–352 | 295–361 | 286–368 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 337 | 70% | 309–352 | 303–356 | 295–359 | 288–367 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 331 | 63% | 304–347 | 298–351 | 290–355 | 283–362 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 293 | 7% | 278–321 | 273–327 | 270–335 | 262–342 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 313 | 13% | 285–327 | 278–332 | 269–335 | 262–343 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 307 | 6% | 280–322 | 272–327 | 263–330 | 257–338 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 273 | 0.4% | 257–299 | 251–308 | 248–318 | 242–324 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 267 | 0.1% | 252–294 | 246–302 | 243–313 | 237–319 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 287 | 0% | 259–301 | 253–305 | 246–308 | 240–316 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 281 | 0% | 254–296 | 248–300 | 240–303 | 235–311 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 302 | 0% | 100% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 304 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 305 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 306 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 307 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 308 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 314 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 315 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 320 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 326 | 0.3% | 96% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 329 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 330 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 331 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 334 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 335 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 336 | 2% | 90% | |
| 337 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 338 | 2% | 88% | |
| 339 | 4% | 86% | |
| 340 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 341 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 342 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 343 | 1.0% | 80% | |
| 344 | 2% | 79% | |
| 345 | 2% | 78% | |
| 346 | 2% | 76% | |
| 347 | 3% | 74% | |
| 348 | 3% | 72% | |
| 349 | 0.4% | 69% | |
| 350 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 351 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 352 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 353 | 2% | 66% | |
| 354 | 2% | 64% | |
| 355 | 2% | 62% | |
| 356 | 1.3% | 61% | |
| 357 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 59% | |
| 359 | 0.4% | 58% | |
| 360 | 4% | 58% | |
| 361 | 3% | 54% | |
| 362 | 0.9% | 51% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 364 | 2% | 50% | |
| 365 | 4% | 47% | |
| 366 | 3% | 43% | |
| 367 | 4% | 41% | |
| 368 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 369 | 2% | 35% | |
| 370 | 3% | 34% | |
| 371 | 8% | 31% | |
| 372 | 4% | 22% | |
| 373 | 3% | 19% | |
| 374 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 375 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 376 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 377 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 378 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 379 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 380 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 381 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 382 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 383 | 1.4% | 6% | |
| 384 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 385 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 386 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 387 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 388 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 389 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 390 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 391 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 392 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 395 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 402 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 295 | 0% | 100% | |
| 296 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 297 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 299 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 300 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 301 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 302 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 303 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 309 | 0.3% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 310 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 313 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 314 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 319 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 320 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 322 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 324 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 325 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 326 | 1.2% | 94% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 329 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 330 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 331 | 2% | 90% | |
| 332 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 333 | 2% | 88% | |
| 334 | 3% | 86% | |
| 335 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 336 | 1.2% | 81% | |
| 337 | 0.6% | 80% | |
| 338 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 339 | 2% | 78% | |
| 340 | 1.2% | 76% | |
| 341 | 2% | 75% | |
| 342 | 2% | 73% | |
| 343 | 3% | 71% | |
| 344 | 0.6% | 69% | |
| 345 | 0.4% | 68% | |
| 346 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 347 | 0.6% | 66% | |
| 348 | 2% | 66% | |
| 349 | 1.5% | 64% | |
| 350 | 0.4% | 62% | |
| 351 | 2% | 62% | |
| 352 | 2% | 60% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 58% | |
| 354 | 0.4% | 58% | |
| 355 | 4% | 58% | |
| 356 | 3% | 54% | |
| 357 | 0.9% | 50% | |
| 358 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 359 | 1.3% | 47% | |
| 360 | 3% | 45% | |
| 361 | 2% | 42% | |
| 362 | 3% | 41% | |
| 363 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 364 | 3% | 37% | |
| 365 | 3% | 34% | |
| 366 | 9% | 31% | |
| 367 | 4% | 22% | |
| 368 | 3% | 19% | |
| 369 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 370 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 371 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 372 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 373 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 374 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 375 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 376 | 2% | 9% | |
| 377 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 378 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 379 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 380 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 381 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 383 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 385 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 386 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 387 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 391 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 392 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 283 | 0% | 100% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 298 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 299 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 300 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 302 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 303 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 304 | 2% | 94% | |
| 305 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 306 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 307 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 308 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 309 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 310 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 311 | 2% | 86% | |
| 312 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 313 | 2% | 83% | |
| 314 | 6% | 80% | |
| 315 | 7% | 75% | |
| 316 | 2% | 68% | |
| 317 | 5% | 66% | |
| 318 | 2% | 61% | |
| 319 | 0.9% | 60% | |
| 320 | 4% | 59% | |
| 321 | 2% | 55% | |
| 322 | 2% | 53% | |
| 323 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 324 | 2% | 47% | |
| 325 | 2% | 46% | |
| 326 | 2% | 43% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.6% | 42% | |
| 328 | 1.3% | 41% | |
| 329 | 2% | 40% | |
| 330 | 1.0% | 38% | |
| 331 | 0.9% | 37% | |
| 332 | 2% | 36% | |
| 333 | 1.0% | 34% | |
| 334 | 1.4% | 33% | |
| 335 | 2% | 32% | |
| 336 | 2% | 29% | |
| 337 | 1.0% | 28% | |
| 338 | 1.3% | 27% | |
| 339 | 3% | 26% | |
| 340 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 341 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 342 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 343 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 344 | 2% | 20% | |
| 345 | 1.5% | 18% | |
| 346 | 2% | 16% | |
| 347 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 348 | 1.5% | 14% | |
| 349 | 2% | 12% | |
| 350 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 351 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 352 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 353 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 354 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 355 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 6% | Last Result |
| 357 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 358 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 359 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 360 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 362 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 363 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 364 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 365 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 366 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 368 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 369 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 370 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 371 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 373 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 374 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 375 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 379 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 380 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 292 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 295 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 296 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 298 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 299 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 300 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 301 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 302 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 303 | 2% | 90% | |
| 304 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 305 | 0.9% | 87% | |
| 306 | 2% | 86% | |
| 307 | 2% | 84% | |
| 308 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 309 | 6% | 81% | |
| 310 | 7% | 75% | |
| 311 | 2% | 68% | |
| 312 | 3% | 66% | |
| 313 | 2% | 62% | |
| 314 | 2% | 60% | |
| 315 | 5% | 59% | |
| 316 | 2% | 54% | |
| 317 | 3% | 51% | |
| 318 | 2% | 49% | Median |
| 319 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 320 | 2% | 46% | |
| 321 | 2% | 44% | |
| 322 | 1.4% | 42% | |
| 323 | 0.9% | 40% | |
| 324 | 1.3% | 40% | |
| 325 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 326 | 2% | 37% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 36% | |
| 328 | 0.6% | 34% | |
| 329 | 1.3% | 33% | |
| 330 | 3% | 32% | |
| 331 | 2% | 29% | |
| 332 | 2% | 28% | |
| 333 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 334 | 2% | 25% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 336 | 0.4% | 22% | |
| 337 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 338 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 339 | 2% | 19% | |
| 340 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 341 | 2% | 16% | |
| 342 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 343 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 344 | 2% | 12% | |
| 345 | 2% | 10% | |
| 346 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 347 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 348 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 349 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 350 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 352 | 0.5% | 5% | Last Result |
| 353 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 354 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 355 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 357 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 359 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 360 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 361 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 362 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 363 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 364 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 366 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 368 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 370 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 279 | 0% | 100% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 292 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 299 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 300 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 302 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 303 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 304 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 306 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 309 | 3% | 92% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 312 | 2% | 89% | |
| 313 | 2% | 86% | |
| 314 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 315 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 317 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 319 | 2% | 81% | |
| 320 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 321 | 2% | 78% | |
| 322 | 2% | 76% | |
| 323 | 2% | 73% | |
| 324 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 325 | 0.7% | 70% | |
| 326 | 3% | 70% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.8% | 66% | |
| 328 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 329 | 0.8% | 64% | |
| 330 | 0.8% | 64% | |
| 331 | 1.1% | 63% | |
| 332 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 333 | 5% | 61% | |
| 334 | 4% | 57% | |
| 335 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 336 | 0.4% | 52% | |
| 337 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 338 | 3% | 48% | |
| 339 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 340 | 5% | 44% | |
| 341 | 3% | 39% | |
| 342 | 1.3% | 36% | |
| 343 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 344 | 6% | 34% | |
| 345 | 4% | 29% | |
| 346 | 2% | 25% | |
| 347 | 4% | 22% | |
| 348 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 349 | 2% | 17% | |
| 350 | 4% | 16% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 352 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 353 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 354 | 2% | 9% | |
| 355 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 356 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 357 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 358 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 359 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 360 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 361 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 362 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 363 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 364 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 367 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 368 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 369 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 274 | 0% | 100% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 283 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 286 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 288 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 291 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 292 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 294 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 296 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 297 | 0.4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 298 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 299 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 301 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 303 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 304 | 3% | 92% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 307 | 2% | 88% | |
| 308 | 2% | 86% | |
| 309 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 310 | 2% | 83% | |
| 311 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 313 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 314 | 3% | 80% | |
| 315 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 316 | 1.0% | 76% | |
| 317 | 2% | 75% | |
| 318 | 2% | 73% | |
| 319 | 1.1% | 71% | |
| 320 | 0.5% | 70% | |
| 321 | 3% | 70% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 67% | |
| 323 | 2% | 66% | |
| 324 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 325 | 0.7% | 63% | |
| 326 | 1.2% | 63% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.3% | 61% | |
| 328 | 5% | 61% | |
| 329 | 4% | 56% | |
| 330 | 2% | 53% | |
| 331 | 3% | 51% | |
| 332 | 1.3% | 48% | Median |
| 333 | 3% | 47% | |
| 334 | 0.8% | 44% | |
| 335 | 3% | 43% | |
| 336 | 1.4% | 39% | |
| 337 | 2% | 38% | |
| 338 | 2% | 36% | |
| 339 | 6% | 35% | |
| 340 | 4% | 28% | |
| 341 | 3% | 24% | |
| 342 | 3% | 22% | |
| 343 | 2% | 19% | |
| 344 | 2% | 17% | |
| 345 | 4% | 16% | |
| 346 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 347 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 348 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 349 | 2% | 9% | |
| 350 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 351 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 352 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 353 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 354 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 355 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 356 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 357 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 359 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 360 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 362 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 363 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 255 | 0% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 265 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 267 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 268 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 271 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 273 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 275 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 276 | 2% | 93% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 278 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 279 | 2% | 89% | |
| 280 | 3% | 87% | |
| 281 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 282 | 2% | 83% | |
| 283 | 3% | 81% | |
| 284 | 2% | 78% | |
| 285 | 5% | 75% | |
| 286 | 4% | 70% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 288 | 3% | 65% | |
| 289 | 3% | 62% | |
| 290 | 3% | 59% | |
| 291 | 1.3% | 56% | |
| 292 | 4% | 55% | |
| 293 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 294 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 295 | 3% | 48% | |
| 296 | 5% | 46% | |
| 297 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 298 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 299 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 37% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 302 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 303 | 1.2% | 34% | |
| 304 | 3% | 33% | |
| 305 | 0.8% | 30% | |
| 306 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 307 | 2% | 28% | |
| 308 | 2% | 26% | |
| 309 | 1.5% | 24% | |
| 310 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 311 | 2% | 21% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 313 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 314 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 315 | 1.5% | 18% | |
| 316 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 317 | 2% | 15% | |
| 318 | 2% | 13% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 321 | 3% | 10% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 325 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 326 | 2% | 7% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 328 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 333 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 334 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 342 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 256 | 0% | 100% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 264 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 275 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 279 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 280 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 281 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 285 | 2% | 91% | |
| 286 | 2% | 90% | |
| 287 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 289 | 2% | 86% | |
| 290 | 1.0% | 83% | |
| 291 | 2% | 82% | |
| 292 | 1.5% | 81% | |
| 293 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 78% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 78% | |
| 296 | 2% | 78% | |
| 297 | 2% | 75% | |
| 298 | 1.1% | 73% | |
| 299 | 2% | 72% | |
| 300 | 3% | 71% | |
| 301 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 302 | 2% | 67% | |
| 303 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 304 | 2% | 64% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 62% | |
| 306 | 1.2% | 62% | |
| 307 | 1.1% | 60% | |
| 308 | 2% | 59% | |
| 309 | 2% | 57% | |
| 310 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 311 | 2% | 54% | |
| 312 | 1.5% | 52% | Median |
| 313 | 3% | 51% | |
| 314 | 2% | 48% | |
| 315 | 6% | 46% | |
| 316 | 0.7% | 40% | |
| 317 | 2% | 39% | |
| 318 | 3% | 37% | |
| 319 | 3% | 34% | |
| 320 | 7% | 31% | |
| 321 | 6% | 25% | |
| 322 | 2% | 19% | |
| 323 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 324 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 325 | 1.2% | 14% | |
| 326 | 1.4% | 13% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 12% | |
| 328 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 330 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 331 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 332 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 333 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 334 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 335 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 339 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 342 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 345 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 258 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 265 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 271 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 273 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 95% | Last Result |
| 275 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 276 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 279 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 280 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 281 | 2% | 90% | |
| 282 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 284 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 285 | 2% | 84% | |
| 286 | 2% | 82% | |
| 287 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 289 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 291 | 3% | 77% | |
| 292 | 0.8% | 74% | |
| 293 | 1.0% | 73% | |
| 294 | 2% | 72% | |
| 295 | 2% | 70% | |
| 296 | 1.5% | 68% | |
| 297 | 2% | 67% | |
| 298 | 0.8% | 64% | |
| 299 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 301 | 2% | 62% | |
| 302 | 1.1% | 60% | |
| 303 | 2% | 59% | |
| 304 | 3% | 57% | |
| 305 | 1.1% | 55% | |
| 306 | 2% | 54% | |
| 307 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 308 | 2% | 48% | |
| 309 | 1.0% | 46% | |
| 310 | 4% | 45% | |
| 311 | 0.9% | 41% | |
| 312 | 3% | 40% | |
| 313 | 3% | 37% | |
| 314 | 2% | 34% | |
| 315 | 7% | 32% | |
| 316 | 6% | 25% | |
| 317 | 2% | 19% | |
| 318 | 2% | 17% | |
| 319 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 320 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 321 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 322 | 2% | 12% | |
| 323 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 324 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 325 | 2% | 8% | |
| 326 | 1.2% | 6% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 328 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 329 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 330 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 331 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 334 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 336 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 337 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 233 | 0% | 100% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 242 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 245 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 247 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 249 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 250 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 251 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 253 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 254 | 2% | 93% | |
| 255 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 257 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 258 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 259 | 1.2% | 88% | |
| 260 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 261 | 2% | 86% | |
| 262 | 3% | 84% | |
| 263 | 5% | 81% | |
| 264 | 8% | 76% | |
| 265 | 4% | 68% | |
| 266 | 1.2% | 65% | |
| 267 | 2% | 63% | |
| 268 | 3% | 62% | |
| 269 | 0.8% | 58% | |
| 270 | 4% | 58% | |
| 271 | 0.7% | 54% | |
| 272 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 273 | 2% | 50% | |
| 274 | 5% | 48% | |
| 275 | 1.3% | 44% | |
| 276 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 42% | |
| 278 | 2% | 41% | |
| 279 | 2% | 39% | |
| 280 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 281 | 2% | 37% | |
| 282 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 283 | 0.5% | 34% | |
| 284 | 1.5% | 34% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 286 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 287 | 2% | 31% | |
| 288 | 2% | 28% | |
| 289 | 2% | 26% | |
| 290 | 1.3% | 25% | |
| 291 | 2% | 23% | |
| 292 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 293 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 294 | 2% | 20% | |
| 295 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 296 | 3% | 17% | |
| 297 | 2% | 14% | |
| 298 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 299 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 300 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 301 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 304 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 306 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 320 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 322 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 325 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 326 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 330 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 332 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 333 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 335 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 241 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 246 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 247 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 248 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 249 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 250 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 251 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 252 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 89% | |
| 254 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 255 | 2% | 87% | |
| 256 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 257 | 4% | 84% | |
| 258 | 4% | 81% | |
| 259 | 8% | 77% | |
| 260 | 3% | 69% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 66% | |
| 262 | 3% | 65% | |
| 263 | 3% | 62% | |
| 264 | 2% | 59% | |
| 265 | 4% | 56% | |
| 266 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 268 | 2% | 49% | |
| 269 | 4% | 48% | |
| 270 | 1.4% | 43% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 42% | |
| 272 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 41% | |
| 274 | 2% | 40% | |
| 275 | 2% | 39% | |
| 276 | 2% | 37% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 35% | |
| 278 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 279 | 1.5% | 34% | |
| 280 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 281 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 282 | 3% | 31% | |
| 283 | 2% | 27% | |
| 284 | 2% | 26% | |
| 285 | 2% | 24% | |
| 286 | 2% | 22% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 288 | 0.4% | 20% | |
| 289 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 290 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 291 | 3% | 17% | |
| 292 | 2% | 14% | |
| 293 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 294 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 295 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 296 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 298 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 299 | 2% | 8% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 308 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 317 | 0.3% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 318 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 321 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 328 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 329 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 234 | 0% | 100% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 241 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 251 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 253 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 254 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 256 | 0% | 93% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 258 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 259 | 4% | 93% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 262 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 263 | 2% | 87% | |
| 264 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 265 | 3% | 84% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 81% | Last Result |
| 267 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 268 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 269 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 77% | |
| 274 | 4% | 76% | |
| 275 | 4% | 72% | |
| 276 | 2% | 68% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 66% | |
| 278 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 280 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 281 | 2% | 63% | |
| 282 | 3% | 61% | |
| 283 | 3% | 58% | |
| 284 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 54% | |
| 286 | 3% | 54% | Median |
| 287 | 2% | 51% | |
| 288 | 7% | 48% | |
| 289 | 1.1% | 41% | |
| 290 | 0.7% | 40% | |
| 291 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 292 | 2% | 39% | |
| 293 | 7% | 37% | |
| 294 | 3% | 29% | |
| 295 | 5% | 26% | |
| 296 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 297 | 4% | 20% | |
| 298 | 4% | 17% | |
| 299 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 300 | 2% | 12% | |
| 301 | 2% | 10% | |
| 302 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 303 | 2% | 8% | |
| 304 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 305 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 308 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 310 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 314 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 316 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 318 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 319 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 324 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 326 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 228 | 0% | 100% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 237 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 238 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 246 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 254 | 4% | 93% | |
| 255 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 256 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 257 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 258 | 2% | 87% | |
| 259 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 260 | 3% | 84% | |
| 261 | 0.3% | 81% | |
| 262 | 0.8% | 81% | Last Result |
| 263 | 2% | 80% | |
| 264 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 265 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 266 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 268 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 269 | 4% | 76% | |
| 270 | 4% | 72% | |
| 271 | 2% | 68% | |
| 272 | 1.4% | 66% | |
| 273 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 275 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 276 | 2% | 62% | |
| 277 | 3% | 61% | |
| 278 | 3% | 58% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 54% | |
| 280 | 3% | 54% | |
| 281 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 282 | 2% | 49% | |
| 283 | 4% | 47% | |
| 284 | 0.7% | 42% | |
| 285 | 2% | 42% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 39% | |
| 287 | 2% | 39% | |
| 288 | 8% | 37% | |
| 289 | 3% | 29% | |
| 290 | 4% | 26% | |
| 291 | 1.3% | 22% | |
| 292 | 3% | 20% | |
| 293 | 4% | 17% | |
| 294 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 295 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 296 | 2% | 11% | |
| 297 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 298 | 1.5% | 8% | |
| 299 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 300 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 301 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 303 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 306 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 310 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 311 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 322 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: BMG Research
- Commissioner(s): The Independent
- Fieldwork period: 3–5 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1503
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%