Opinion Poll by Opinium for The Observer, 3–5 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.4% 38.0–40.8% 37.6–41.2% 37.3–41.6% 36.6–42.2%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.4% 38.0–40.8% 37.6–41.2% 37.3–41.6% 36.6–42.2%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.1% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.1% 5.4–6.8% 5.3–7.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.8–7.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 293 271–318 269–326 266–331 263–338
Labour Party 262 287 258–301 249–307 246–315 239–322
Liberal Democrats 12 14 9–16 8–16 5–17 3–20
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 39 21–49 14–51 8–52 4–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5 4–6 4–8 4–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 1.3% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.7% 98%  
267 0.6% 97%  
268 1.1% 97%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 0.3% 95%  
271 5% 95%  
272 0.4% 90%  
273 4% 89%  
274 0.5% 85%  
275 0.5% 85%  
276 0.3% 84%  
277 2% 84%  
278 0.4% 82%  
279 0.5% 82%  
280 1.2% 81%  
281 0.3% 80%  
282 2% 80%  
283 1.0% 78%  
284 0.3% 77%  
285 10% 77%  
286 1.3% 66%  
287 0.3% 65%  
288 0.6% 65%  
289 2% 64%  
290 3% 63%  
291 0.9% 60%  
292 0.9% 59%  
293 15% 58% Median
294 6% 43%  
295 0.3% 37%  
296 0.7% 37%  
297 0.9% 36%  
298 1.1% 35%  
299 1.1% 34%  
300 4% 33%  
301 0.1% 29%  
302 2% 28%  
303 3% 27%  
304 0.2% 24%  
305 0.8% 24%  
306 1.4% 23%  
307 0.6% 22%  
308 0.6% 21%  
309 1.1% 20%  
310 0.6% 19%  
311 3% 19%  
312 1.0% 15%  
313 2% 14%  
314 0.5% 12%  
315 0.1% 12%  
316 0% 12%  
317 1.4% 12% Last Result
318 1.1% 10%  
319 0.4% 9%  
320 0.1% 9%  
321 2% 9%  
322 0.2% 7%  
323 0.2% 7%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 0.4% 6%  
326 0.5% 5% Majority
327 0.3% 5%  
328 0% 4%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 1.2% 2%  
335 0% 0.9%  
336 0.2% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.2% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.9% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 98%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 2% 96%  
250 0.2% 95%  
251 0.1% 94%  
252 0% 94%  
253 0.8% 94%  
254 0.3% 94%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 3% 93%  
257 0.1% 90%  
258 2% 90%  
259 2% 88%  
260 3% 86%  
261 1.2% 83%  
262 1.3% 82% Last Result
263 0.5% 81%  
264 0.2% 80%  
265 0.3% 80%  
266 0.7% 80%  
267 0.2% 79%  
268 2% 79%  
269 0.7% 77%  
270 1.1% 76%  
271 0.7% 75%  
272 6% 75%  
273 1.4% 68%  
274 0.8% 67%  
275 1.1% 66%  
276 1.1% 65%  
277 0.1% 64%  
278 6% 64%  
279 0.3% 58%  
280 1.2% 57%  
281 0.2% 56%  
282 1.2% 56%  
283 0.9% 55%  
284 0.4% 54%  
285 2% 53%  
286 1.1% 52%  
287 1.5% 50% Median
288 7% 49%  
289 0.5% 42%  
290 6% 41%  
291 0.3% 35%  
292 1.0% 35%  
293 1.0% 34%  
294 1.5% 33%  
295 0.5% 32%  
296 7% 31%  
297 12% 24%  
298 1.0% 12%  
299 0.2% 11%  
300 0.4% 11%  
301 1.3% 10%  
302 0.5% 9%  
303 1.3% 9%  
304 0.4% 7%  
305 0.1% 7%  
306 0.7% 7%  
307 1.4% 6%  
308 0.3% 5%  
309 0.8% 4%  
310 0.1% 4%  
311 0.4% 4%  
312 0% 3%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.2% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 1.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.4%  
5 0.9% 98%  
6 1.3% 97%  
7 0.5% 96%  
8 3% 95%  
9 3% 92%  
10 1.5% 89%  
11 2% 88%  
12 6% 86% Last Result
13 12% 80%  
14 23% 68% Median
15 32% 46%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 4%  
18 0.3% 1.5%  
19 0.6% 1.2%  
20 0.3% 0.6%  
21 0% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 0.1% 99.4%  
6 0.4% 99.4%  
7 0.9% 99.0%  
8 0.6% 98%  
9 0.9% 97%  
10 1.2% 96%  
11 0% 95%  
12 0% 95%  
13 0.2% 95%  
14 0.2% 95%  
15 0.1% 95%  
16 0.1% 95%  
17 2% 95%  
18 0.2% 93%  
19 0.4% 93%  
20 1.0% 92%  
21 1.4% 91%  
22 8% 90%  
23 1.0% 82%  
24 3% 81%  
25 0.4% 78%  
26 2% 77%  
27 2% 75%  
28 9% 73%  
29 4% 64%  
30 2% 60%  
31 0.4% 58%  
32 0.3% 58%  
33 3% 57%  
34 0.2% 55%  
35 1.2% 55% Last Result
36 0.3% 53%  
37 0.1% 53%  
38 2% 53%  
39 9% 51% Median
40 2% 42%  
41 4% 40%  
42 2% 36%  
43 4% 34%  
44 0.4% 30%  
45 8% 30%  
46 1.0% 22%  
47 0.8% 21%  
48 6% 20%  
49 5% 14%  
50 0.7% 9%  
51 5% 8%  
52 0.8% 3%  
53 0.5% 2%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 9% 99.8% Last Result
5 84% 90% Median
6 2% 7%  
7 0.6% 5%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 329 64% 314–363 309–366 299–375 293–381
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 324 49% 310–359 304–361 295–369 288–376
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 337 76% 312–359 304–361 299–364 292–367
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 332 67% 307–354 299–355 294–359 287–362
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 322 39% 300–344 291–347 287–350 283–352
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 317 24% 294–339 286–342 282–345 276–347
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 308 14% 286–330 283–339 280–343 278–347
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 298 9% 276–323 275–331 271–336 268–343
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 306 5% 271–320 269–326 261–335 254–342
Conservative Party 317 293 5% 271–318 269–326 266–331 263–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 301 3% 267–316 264–321 255–331 249–337
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 292 0.8% 262–305 254–312 252–320 244–326
Labour Party 262 287 0.4% 258–301 249–307 246–315 239–322

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0% 99.5%  
293 0% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 1.2% 99.3%  
296 0% 98%  
297 0.1% 98%  
298 0.3% 98%  
299 0.1% 98%  
300 0.1% 97%  
301 0% 97%  
302 0.1% 97%  
303 0.1% 97%  
304 0.3% 97%  
305 0% 97%  
306 1.1% 97%  
307 0.1% 96%  
308 0.6% 96%  
309 0.3% 95%  
310 1.4% 95%  
311 0.3% 93%  
312 1.1% 93%  
313 0.9% 92%  
314 1.1% 91%  
315 0.3% 90%  
316 0.3% 90%  
317 0.7% 89%  
318 9% 89%  
319 4% 80%  
320 7% 76%  
321 1.3% 69%  
322 1.0% 68%  
323 0.9% 67%  
324 1.1% 66%  
325 0.8% 65%  
326 0.3% 64% Majority
327 8% 64%  
328 2% 56%  
329 4% 53%  
330 0.2% 49%  
331 0.6% 49%  
332 0.6% 48%  
333 2% 48%  
334 0.2% 45%  
335 0.8% 45%  
336 2% 44%  
337 5% 42% Median
338 0.1% 37%  
339 0.8% 37%  
340 0.6% 36%  
341 0.8% 35%  
342 0.9% 34%  
343 0.7% 33%  
344 7% 33%  
345 1.5% 26%  
346 1.2% 24%  
347 0.2% 23%  
348 0.4% 23%  
349 0.5% 22%  
350 0.7% 22%  
351 0.1% 21%  
352 0.1% 21%  
353 0.5% 21%  
354 1.0% 20%  
355 1.2% 19%  
356 4% 18% Last Result
357 0.1% 14%  
358 0.1% 14%  
359 0.6% 14%  
360 0.6% 13%  
361 0.4% 13%  
362 2% 12%  
363 2% 11%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.5% 7%  
366 0.8% 5%  
367 0.1% 5%  
368 0.6% 5%  
369 0.2% 4%  
370 0.2% 4%  
371 0.2% 3%  
372 0.2% 3%  
373 0% 3%  
374 0.4% 3%  
375 0.2% 3%  
376 1.4% 2%  
377 0.1% 1.0%  
378 0.2% 1.0%  
379 0.1% 0.8%  
380 0.2% 0.7%  
381 0.1% 0.6%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.3%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 1.1% 99.2%  
291 0% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0% 97%  
297 0.3% 97%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0.1% 97%  
300 0% 97%  
301 1.1% 97%  
302 0.2% 96%  
303 0.2% 95%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.1% 95%  
306 1.5% 95%  
307 0.2% 93%  
308 2% 93%  
309 0.5% 91%  
310 0.8% 90%  
311 0.3% 90%  
312 0.7% 89%  
313 9% 89%  
314 4% 80%  
315 7% 76%  
316 1.4% 69%  
317 0.6% 68%  
318 1.4% 67%  
319 1.1% 65%  
320 0.7% 64%  
321 0.1% 64%  
322 8% 64%  
323 2% 56%  
324 4% 53%  
325 0.4% 49%  
326 0.7% 49% Majority
327 0.5% 48%  
328 2% 48%  
329 0.2% 45%  
330 0.7% 45%  
331 2% 45%  
332 6% 42% Median
333 0.6% 37%  
334 1.2% 36%  
335 0.7% 35%  
336 0.3% 34%  
337 0.4% 34%  
338 0.8% 33%  
339 7% 32%  
340 0.8% 25%  
341 2% 25%  
342 0.1% 23%  
343 0.4% 23%  
344 0.7% 22%  
345 0.7% 22%  
346 0% 21%  
347 0.9% 21%  
348 0.6% 20%  
349 1.1% 19%  
350 0.4% 18%  
351 4% 18%  
352 0.1% 14% Last Result
353 0.1% 14%  
354 0.8% 14%  
355 0.7% 13%  
356 0.3% 12%  
357 1.4% 12%  
358 0.2% 11%  
359 4% 11%  
360 2% 7%  
361 0.7% 5%  
362 0.2% 5%  
363 0.6% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.3% 4%  
366 0.2% 3%  
367 0% 3%  
368 0% 3%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.2% 2%  
371 1.3% 2%  
372 0% 0.9%  
373 0.2% 0.9%  
374 0% 0.7%  
375 0.1% 0.7%  
376 0.2% 0.6%  
377 0% 0.4%  
378 0% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 0% 99.2%  
296 1.2% 99.1%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.9% 97%  
301 0.8% 97%  
302 0% 96%  
303 0.3% 96%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.4% 95%  
306 1.2% 94%  
307 0.2% 93%  
308 0.2% 93%  
309 2% 93%  
310 0.1% 91%  
311 0.4% 91%  
312 1.1% 91%  
313 1.4% 90% Last Result
314 0% 88%  
315 0.1% 88%  
316 0.5% 88%  
317 2% 88%  
318 1.0% 86%  
319 3% 85%  
320 0.6% 81%  
321 1.1% 81%  
322 0.6% 80%  
323 0.6% 79%  
324 1.4% 78%  
325 0.8% 77%  
326 0.2% 76% Majority
327 3% 76%  
328 2% 73%  
329 0.1% 72%  
330 4% 71%  
331 1.1% 67%  
332 1.1% 66%  
333 0.9% 65%  
334 0.7% 64%  
335 0.3% 63%  
336 6% 63%  
337 15% 57%  
338 0.9% 42%  
339 0.9% 41%  
340 3% 40%  
341 2% 37%  
342 0.6% 36%  
343 0.3% 35%  
344 1.3% 35%  
345 10% 34% Median
346 0.3% 23%  
347 1.0% 23%  
348 2% 22%  
349 0.3% 20%  
350 1.2% 20%  
351 0.5% 19%  
352 0.4% 18%  
353 2% 18%  
354 0.3% 16%  
355 0.5% 16%  
356 0.5% 15%  
357 4% 15%  
358 0.4% 11%  
359 5% 10%  
360 0.3% 5%  
361 0.6% 5%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.6% 3%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 1.3% 2%  
367 0.2% 0.6%  
368 0% 0.4%  
369 0.2% 0.4%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 1.2% 99.1%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 0.8% 97%  
297 0.1% 96%  
298 0.4% 96%  
299 0.4% 95%  
300 0.3% 95%  
301 1.3% 94%  
302 0.2% 93%  
303 0.1% 93%  
304 2% 93%  
305 0.2% 91%  
306 0.3% 91%  
307 1.1% 91%  
308 1.5% 90%  
309 0.3% 88% Last Result
310 0.1% 88%  
311 0.4% 88%  
312 2% 87%  
313 1.1% 86%  
314 1.4% 84%  
315 3% 83%  
316 0.8% 80%  
317 0.9% 79%  
318 0.5% 78%  
319 2% 78%  
320 0% 76%  
321 0.1% 76%  
322 3% 76%  
323 1.3% 73%  
324 1.2% 72%  
325 4% 71%  
326 1.2% 67% Majority
327 0.2% 66%  
328 1.3% 65%  
329 0.6% 64%  
330 0.4% 63%  
331 6% 63%  
332 15% 57%  
333 1.1% 42%  
334 0.8% 41%  
335 3% 40%  
336 0.2% 37%  
337 2% 37%  
338 0.8% 35%  
339 1.0% 34%  
340 10% 33% Median
341 0.7% 23%  
342 0.4% 22%  
343 0.8% 22%  
344 2% 21%  
345 1.0% 20%  
346 0.3% 19%  
347 0.6% 18%  
348 2% 18%  
349 0.3% 16%  
350 0.5% 16%  
351 0.7% 15%  
352 4% 14%  
353 0.2% 10%  
354 5% 10%  
355 0.3% 5%  
356 0.2% 5%  
357 1.4% 5%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.8% 2%  
362 0.7% 1.1%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.3% 99.4%  
285 0.3% 99.1%  
286 1.0% 98.8%  
287 0.6% 98%  
288 2% 97%  
289 0.1% 96%  
290 0.1% 95%  
291 2% 95%  
292 0.1% 94%  
293 2% 94%  
294 0.1% 92%  
295 0.7% 92%  
296 0.3% 91%  
297 0.4% 91%  
298 0.1% 91%  
299 0.4% 91%  
300 0.6% 90%  
301 0.2% 90% Last Result
302 1.4% 89%  
303 1.0% 88%  
304 0.7% 87%  
305 0.3% 86%  
306 0.3% 86%  
307 0.9% 86%  
308 0.7% 85%  
309 2% 84%  
310 3% 82%  
311 0.3% 79%  
312 3% 79%  
313 3% 76%  
314 0.3% 73%  
315 0.7% 73%  
316 1.1% 72%  
317 4% 71%  
318 2% 67%  
319 0.6% 65%  
320 0.2% 64%  
321 0.2% 64%  
322 14% 64%  
323 7% 50%  
324 2% 42%  
325 2% 41%  
326 1.2% 39% Majority
327 0.5% 38%  
328 2% 37%  
329 2% 35%  
330 10% 34%  
331 0.3% 24% Median
332 0.6% 24%  
333 1.5% 23%  
334 0.4% 21%  
335 2% 21%  
336 0.2% 19%  
337 0.3% 19%  
338 0.6% 19%  
339 0.3% 18%  
340 0.3% 18%  
341 2% 18%  
342 0.3% 16%  
343 0.6% 15%  
344 6% 15%  
345 4% 9%  
346 0.1% 5%  
347 1.2% 5%  
348 1.1% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.8% 3%  
351 1.1% 2%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.0%  
281 1.0% 98.8%  
282 0.7% 98%  
283 2% 97%  
284 0.1% 95%  
285 0.1% 95%  
286 1.3% 95%  
287 0.2% 94%  
288 2% 94%  
289 0.2% 92%  
290 0.7% 92%  
291 0.3% 91%  
292 0.6% 91%  
293 0% 91%  
294 0.6% 90%  
295 0.6% 90%  
296 0.3% 89%  
297 1.4% 89% Last Result
298 0.8% 88%  
299 0.8% 87%  
300 0.5% 86%  
301 0.6% 86%  
302 2% 85%  
303 0.8% 83%  
304 1.1% 83%  
305 0.3% 81%  
306 2% 81%  
307 3% 79%  
308 3% 76%  
309 0.8% 73%  
310 0.6% 72%  
311 1.1% 72%  
312 3% 70%  
313 2% 67%  
314 1.1% 65%  
315 0.2% 64%  
316 0.1% 64%  
317 14% 64%  
318 7% 50%  
319 2% 42%  
320 2% 40%  
321 1.2% 39%  
322 0.5% 38%  
323 1.1% 37%  
324 2% 36%  
325 10% 34%  
326 0.1% 24% Median, Majority
327 1.3% 24%  
328 0.2% 22%  
329 2% 22%  
330 1.0% 20%  
331 0.5% 19%  
332 0.2% 19%  
333 0.3% 19%  
334 0.5% 18%  
335 0.3% 18%  
336 2% 18%  
337 0.4% 16%  
338 0.3% 15%  
339 6% 15%  
340 4% 9%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 1.2% 5%  
343 0.7% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.7% 2%  
347 0.7% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 1.1% 99.4%  
280 0.8% 98%  
281 0.4% 97%  
282 1.1% 97%  
283 1.3% 96%  
284 0.1% 95%  
285 4% 95%  
286 6% 91%  
287 0.6% 85%  
288 0.3% 85%  
289 2% 84%  
290 0.3% 82%  
291 0.3% 82%  
292 0.6% 82%  
293 0.3% 81%  
294 0.2% 81%  
295 2% 81%  
296 0.4% 79%  
297 1.5% 79%  
298 0.6% 77%  
299 0.3% 76%  
300 10% 76%  
301 2% 66%  
302 2% 65%  
303 0.5% 63%  
304 1.2% 62%  
305 2% 61%  
306 2% 59%  
307 7% 58% Median
308 14% 50%  
309 0.2% 36%  
310 0.2% 36%  
311 0.6% 36%  
312 2% 35%  
313 4% 33%  
314 1.1% 29%  
315 0.7% 28%  
316 0.3% 27%  
317 3% 27%  
318 3% 24%  
319 0.3% 21%  
320 3% 21%  
321 2% 18%  
322 0.7% 16%  
323 0.9% 15%  
324 0.3% 14%  
325 0.3% 14%  
326 0.7% 14% Majority
327 1.0% 13%  
328 1.4% 12%  
329 0.2% 11% Last Result
330 0.6% 10%  
331 0.4% 10%  
332 0.1% 9%  
333 0.4% 9%  
334 0.3% 9%  
335 0.7% 9%  
336 0.1% 8%  
337 2% 8%  
338 0.1% 6%  
339 2% 6%  
340 0.1% 5%  
341 0.1% 5%  
342 2% 4%  
343 0.6% 3%  
344 1.0% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.2%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0% 0.4%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.7% 99.6%  
269 0.8% 98.9%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 1.4% 97%  
274 0.2% 95%  
275 0.3% 95%  
276 5% 95%  
277 0.2% 90%  
278 4% 90%  
279 0.7% 86%  
280 0.5% 85%  
281 0.3% 84%  
282 2% 84%  
283 0.6% 82%  
284 0.3% 82%  
285 1.0% 81%  
286 2% 80%  
287 0.8% 79%  
288 0.4% 78%  
289 0.7% 78%  
290 10% 77%  
291 1.0% 67%  
292 0.8% 66%  
293 2% 65%  
294 0.2% 63%  
295 3% 63%  
296 0.8% 60%  
297 1.1% 59%  
298 15% 58% Median
299 6% 43%  
300 0.4% 37%  
301 0.6% 37%  
302 1.3% 36%  
303 0.2% 35%  
304 1.2% 34%  
305 4% 33%  
306 1.2% 29%  
307 1.3% 28%  
308 3% 27%  
309 0.1% 24%  
310 0% 24%  
311 2% 24%  
312 0.5% 22%  
313 0.9% 22%  
314 0.8% 21%  
315 3% 20%  
316 1.4% 17%  
317 1.1% 16%  
318 2% 14%  
319 0.4% 13%  
320 0.1% 12%  
321 0.3% 12% Last Result
322 1.5% 12%  
323 1.1% 10%  
324 0.3% 9%  
325 0.2% 9%  
326 2% 9% Majority
327 0.1% 7%  
328 0.2% 7%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.3% 6%  
331 0.4% 5%  
332 0.4% 5%  
333 0.1% 4%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 1.2% 2%  
340 0.1% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.8%  
342 0.1% 0.7%  
343 0.2% 0.6%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0.1% 100%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0% 99.7%  
253 0% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.6%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0% 99.3%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0% 99.1%  
259 1.3% 99.1%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0% 97%  
263 0% 97%  
264 0.2% 97%  
265 0.3% 97%  
266 0.4% 96%  
267 0.6% 96%  
268 0.2% 95%  
269 0.7% 95%  
270 2% 95%  
271 4% 93%  
272 0.2% 89%  
273 1.4% 89%  
274 0.3% 88%  
275 0.7% 88%  
276 0.8% 87%  
277 0.1% 86%  
278 0.1% 86% Last Result
279 4% 86%  
280 0.4% 82%  
281 1.1% 82%  
282 0.6% 81%  
283 0.9% 80%  
284 0% 79%  
285 0.7% 79%  
286 0.7% 78%  
287 0.4% 78%  
288 0.1% 77%  
289 2% 77%  
290 0.8% 75%  
291 7% 75%  
292 0.8% 68%  
293 0.4% 67%  
294 0.3% 66%  
295 0.7% 66%  
296 1.2% 65%  
297 0.6% 64%  
298 6% 63%  
299 2% 58%  
300 0.7% 55%  
301 0.2% 55%  
302 2% 55%  
303 0.5% 52%  
304 0.7% 52%  
305 0.4% 51%  
306 4% 51% Median
307 2% 47%  
308 8% 44%  
309 0.1% 36%  
310 0.7% 36%  
311 1.1% 36%  
312 1.4% 35%  
313 0.6% 33%  
314 1.4% 32%  
315 7% 31%  
316 4% 24%  
317 9% 20%  
318 0.7% 11%  
319 0.3% 11%  
320 0.8% 10%  
321 0.5% 10%  
322 2% 9%  
323 0.2% 7%  
324 1.5% 7%  
325 0.1% 5%  
326 0.5% 5% Majority
327 0.2% 5%  
328 0.2% 5%  
329 1.1% 4%  
330 0% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.1% 3%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0% 3%  
335 0.2% 3%  
336 0% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0% 2%  
340 1.1% 2%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0.1% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 1.3% 99.4%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.7% 98%  
267 0.6% 97%  
268 1.1% 97%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 0.3% 95%  
271 5% 95%  
272 0.4% 90%  
273 4% 89%  
274 0.5% 85%  
275 0.5% 85%  
276 0.3% 84%  
277 2% 84%  
278 0.4% 82%  
279 0.5% 82%  
280 1.2% 81%  
281 0.3% 80%  
282 2% 80%  
283 1.0% 78%  
284 0.3% 77%  
285 10% 77%  
286 1.3% 66%  
287 0.3% 65%  
288 0.6% 65%  
289 2% 64%  
290 3% 63%  
291 0.9% 60%  
292 0.9% 59%  
293 15% 58% Median
294 6% 43%  
295 0.3% 37%  
296 0.7% 37%  
297 0.9% 36%  
298 1.1% 35%  
299 1.1% 34%  
300 4% 33%  
301 0.1% 29%  
302 2% 28%  
303 3% 27%  
304 0.2% 24%  
305 0.8% 24%  
306 1.4% 23%  
307 0.6% 22%  
308 0.6% 21%  
309 1.1% 20%  
310 0.6% 19%  
311 3% 19%  
312 1.0% 15%  
313 2% 14%  
314 0.5% 12%  
315 0.1% 12%  
316 0% 12%  
317 1.4% 12% Last Result
318 1.1% 10%  
319 0.4% 9%  
320 0.1% 9%  
321 2% 9%  
322 0.2% 7%  
323 0.2% 7%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 0.4% 6%  
326 0.5% 5% Majority
327 0.3% 5%  
328 0% 4%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.2% 3%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 1.2% 2%  
335 0% 0.9%  
336 0.2% 0.8%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.8%  
244 0% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.6%  
248 0% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.4%  
251 0.1% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 99.2%  
253 0.1% 99.0%  
254 1.4% 99.0%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.4% 97%  
257 0% 97%  
258 0.2% 97%  
259 0.2% 97%  
260 0.2% 97%  
261 0.2% 96%  
262 0.6% 96%  
263 0.1% 95%  
264 0.8% 95%  
265 1.5% 95%  
266 2% 93%  
267 2% 91%  
268 2% 89%  
269 0.4% 88%  
270 0.6% 87%  
271 0.6% 87%  
272 0.1% 86%  
273 0.1% 86%  
274 4% 86% Last Result
275 1.2% 82%  
276 1.0% 81%  
277 0.5% 80%  
278 0.1% 79%  
279 0.1% 79%  
280 0.7% 79%  
281 0.5% 78%  
282 0.4% 78%  
283 0.2% 77%  
284 1.2% 77%  
285 1.5% 76%  
286 7% 74%  
287 0.7% 67%  
288 0.9% 67%  
289 0.8% 66%  
290 0.6% 65%  
291 0.8% 64%  
292 0.1% 63%  
293 5% 63%  
294 2% 58%  
295 0.8% 56%  
296 0.2% 55%  
297 2% 55%  
298 0.6% 52%  
299 0.6% 52%  
300 0.3% 51%  
301 4% 51% Median
302 2% 47%  
303 8% 44%  
304 0.3% 36%  
305 0.8% 36%  
306 1.1% 35%  
307 0.9% 34%  
308 1.0% 33%  
309 1.3% 32%  
310 7% 31%  
311 4% 24%  
312 9% 20%  
313 0.7% 11%  
314 0.3% 11%  
315 0.3% 10%  
316 1.1% 10%  
317 0.9% 9%  
318 1.1% 8%  
319 0.3% 7%  
320 1.4% 7%  
321 0.3% 5%  
322 0.6% 5%  
323 0.1% 4%  
324 1.1% 4%  
325 0% 3%  
326 0.3% 3% Majority
327 0.1% 3%  
328 0.1% 3%  
329 0% 3%  
330 0.1% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 0% 2%  
335 1.2% 2%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0.1% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.2% 99.8%  
244 0.2% 99.6%  
245 1.0% 99.4%  
246 0.2% 98%  
247 0.1% 98%  
248 0.1% 98%  
249 0.1% 98%  
250 0.2% 98%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.6% 98%  
253 0.5% 97%  
254 2% 96%  
255 0.2% 95%  
256 0.1% 94%  
257 0% 94%  
258 0.9% 94%  
259 0.1% 94%  
260 0.2% 93%  
261 3% 93%  
262 2% 91%  
263 0.3% 88%  
264 2% 88%  
265 2% 86%  
266 1.1% 84% Last Result
267 1.4% 83%  
268 1.1% 82%  
269 0.4% 81%  
270 0.2% 80%  
271 0.9% 80%  
272 0.1% 79%  
273 2% 79%  
274 0.9% 77%  
275 0.8% 76%  
276 0.8% 76%  
277 6% 75%  
278 1.2% 69%  
279 1.0% 67%  
280 0.3% 66%  
281 0.6% 66%  
282 0.5% 65%  
283 7% 65%  
284 0.8% 58%  
285 1.4% 57%  
286 0.3% 56%  
287 1.0% 56%  
288 0.9% 55%  
289 0.4% 54%  
290 2% 53%  
291 1.1% 52%  
292 2% 51% Median
293 7% 49%  
294 0.5% 42%  
295 6% 41%  
296 0.4% 36%  
297 0.9% 35%  
298 1.2% 34%  
299 2% 33%  
300 0.4% 31%  
301 7% 31%  
302 12% 24%  
303 0.9% 12%  
304 0.2% 11%  
305 0.9% 11%  
306 0.3% 10%  
307 2% 10%  
308 0.3% 7%  
309 0.2% 7%  
310 0.5% 7%  
311 1.5% 6%  
312 0.4% 5%  
313 0% 5%  
314 0.9% 5%  
315 0.1% 4%  
316 0.2% 4%  
317 0.1% 3%  
318 0.7% 3%  
319 0.2% 3%  
320 0% 3%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 1.1% 2%  
326 0.3% 0.8% Majority
327 0% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.2% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.9% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 98%  
242 0.1% 98%  
243 0.1% 98%  
244 0% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.4% 97%  
248 0.4% 97%  
249 2% 96%  
250 0.2% 95%  
251 0.1% 94%  
252 0% 94%  
253 0.8% 94%  
254 0.3% 94%  
255 0.2% 93%  
256 3% 93%  
257 0.1% 90%  
258 2% 90%  
259 2% 88%  
260 3% 86%  
261 1.2% 83%  
262 1.3% 82% Last Result
263 0.5% 81%  
264 0.2% 80%  
265 0.3% 80%  
266 0.7% 80%  
267 0.2% 79%  
268 2% 79%  
269 0.7% 77%  
270 1.1% 76%  
271 0.7% 75%  
272 6% 75%  
273 1.4% 68%  
274 0.8% 67%  
275 1.1% 66%  
276 1.1% 65%  
277 0.1% 64%  
278 6% 64%  
279 0.3% 58%  
280 1.2% 57%  
281 0.2% 56%  
282 1.2% 56%  
283 0.9% 55%  
284 0.4% 54%  
285 2% 53%  
286 1.1% 52%  
287 1.5% 50% Median
288 7% 49%  
289 0.5% 42%  
290 6% 41%  
291 0.3% 35%  
292 1.0% 35%  
293 1.0% 34%  
294 1.5% 33%  
295 0.5% 32%  
296 7% 31%  
297 12% 24%  
298 1.0% 12%  
299 0.2% 11%  
300 0.4% 11%  
301 1.3% 10%  
302 0.5% 9%  
303 1.3% 9%  
304 0.4% 7%  
305 0.1% 7%  
306 0.7% 7%  
307 1.4% 6%  
308 0.3% 5%  
309 0.8% 4%  
310 0.1% 4%  
311 0.4% 4%  
312 0% 3%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.2% 3%  
315 0.1% 3%  
316 0.3% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 1.1% 2%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Technical Information

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Calculations