Opinion Poll by BMG Research, 4–7 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 38.0% 36.4–39.6% 36.0–40.1% 35.6–40.5% 34.8–41.3%
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.0% 35.4–38.6% 35.0–39.1% 34.6–39.5% 33.9–40.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.7–13.5% 10.5–13.7% 10.0–14.3%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Green Party 1.6% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 286 255–310 249–314 244–319 234–329
Conservative Party 317 271 250–300 245–306 241–312 235–323
Liberal Democrats 12 31 28–37 27–39 27–40 26–43
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 39 16–50 8–50 6–51 2–53
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–8 3–8 3–8 3–9

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.3%  
236 0.1% 99.2%  
237 0.2% 99.1%  
238 0.1% 98.9%  
239 0.1% 98.8%  
240 0.1% 98.7%  
241 0.1% 98.6%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.2% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.4% 97%  
246 0.4% 97%  
247 0.5% 97%  
248 0.7% 96%  
249 0.6% 95%  
250 0.2% 95%  
251 0.6% 95%  
252 0.9% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 0.9% 91%  
255 1.4% 90%  
256 1.3% 89%  
257 1.0% 88%  
258 1.2% 87%  
259 0.8% 85%  
260 0.7% 85%  
261 0.5% 84%  
262 0.7% 83% Last Result
263 0.8% 83%  
264 1.1% 82%  
265 1.0% 81%  
266 0.5% 80%  
267 0.6% 79%  
268 2% 79%  
269 1.1% 77%  
270 1.4% 76%  
271 0.9% 75%  
272 1.3% 74%  
273 1.2% 73%  
274 1.0% 71%  
275 1.2% 70%  
276 1.4% 69%  
277 2% 68%  
278 1.1% 66%  
279 2% 65%  
280 1.2% 64%  
281 3% 62%  
282 3% 60%  
283 2% 57%  
284 4% 55%  
285 1.3% 52%  
286 2% 50% Median
287 1.4% 48%  
288 3% 47%  
289 4% 44%  
290 2% 40%  
291 2% 39%  
292 2% 37%  
293 2% 35%  
294 2% 33%  
295 0.9% 31%  
296 1.3% 30%  
297 3% 28%  
298 3% 26%  
299 2% 22%  
300 0.9% 20%  
301 1.0% 19%  
302 1.3% 18%  
303 1.3% 17%  
304 0.9% 16%  
305 0.8% 15%  
306 1.1% 14%  
307 0.6% 13%  
308 1.2% 12%  
309 0.6% 11%  
310 2% 10%  
311 0.7% 8%  
312 1.1% 8%  
313 0.5% 6%  
314 1.3% 6%  
315 0.8% 5%  
316 0.6% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.5%  
326 0.4% 1.3% Majority
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 99.1%  
239 0.3% 98.8%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 0.4% 97%  
244 0.9% 96%  
245 0.6% 95%  
246 0.9% 95%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 0.4% 93%  
249 1.4% 92%  
250 1.2% 91%  
251 1.2% 90%  
252 1.3% 89%  
253 0.6% 87%  
254 2% 87%  
255 2% 85%  
256 1.4% 83%  
257 2% 82%  
258 2% 80%  
259 3% 78%  
260 2% 75%  
261 2% 74%  
262 1.5% 72%  
263 3% 70%  
264 3% 68%  
265 2% 64%  
266 2% 62%  
267 3% 60%  
268 2% 56%  
269 2% 54%  
270 1.1% 52%  
271 2% 51% Median
272 4% 48%  
273 2% 44%  
274 2% 42%  
275 2% 40%  
276 1.1% 38%  
277 3% 37%  
278 0.8% 34%  
279 2% 33%  
280 1.0% 31%  
281 0.8% 30%  
282 0.8% 30%  
283 0.7% 29%  
284 0.8% 28%  
285 1.4% 27%  
286 1.0% 26%  
287 1.0% 25%  
288 1.1% 24%  
289 1.3% 23%  
290 0.9% 21%  
291 1.0% 21%  
292 0.5% 20%  
293 1.2% 19%  
294 2% 18%  
295 1.3% 16%  
296 1.1% 15%  
297 2% 14%  
298 0.6% 12%  
299 0.9% 12%  
300 1.2% 11%  
301 0.7% 10%  
302 1.0% 9%  
303 0.6% 8%  
304 0.8% 7%  
305 1.0% 6%  
306 0.8% 5%  
307 0.3% 5%  
308 0.5% 4%  
309 0.5% 4%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.5% 3%  
312 0.2% 3%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
318 0.1% 1.3%  
319 0.2% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 7% 99.4%  
28 10% 92%  
29 15% 82%  
30 10% 67%  
31 7% 57% Median
32 9% 50%  
33 9% 40%  
34 6% 31%  
35 7% 25%  
36 6% 17%  
37 5% 12%  
38 1.1% 7%  
39 2% 6%  
40 1.0% 3%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.4% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 61% 100% Last Result, Median
2 39% 39%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 0.2% 99.7%  
3 0.2% 99.5%  
4 0.7% 99.2%  
5 0.2% 98.5%  
6 1.0% 98%  
7 0.7% 97%  
8 3% 97%  
9 0.5% 93%  
10 0.1% 93%  
11 0.1% 93%  
12 1.1% 93%  
13 0.3% 92%  
14 0.4% 91%  
15 0.6% 91%  
16 0.4% 90%  
17 0.3% 90%  
18 0.6% 90%  
19 0.8% 89%  
20 1.3% 88%  
21 1.0% 87%  
22 2% 86%  
23 0.9% 84%  
24 2% 83%  
25 2% 82%  
26 3% 80%  
27 2% 77%  
28 3% 76%  
29 4% 73%  
30 1.4% 69%  
31 0.6% 68%  
32 5% 67%  
33 2% 63%  
34 0.3% 61%  
35 1.2% 60% Last Result
36 0.7% 59%  
37 1.0% 58%  
38 4% 57%  
39 6% 53% Median
40 3% 48%  
41 3% 45%  
42 1.4% 42%  
43 5% 41%  
44 4% 37%  
45 2% 32%  
46 6% 30%  
47 6% 24%  
48 5% 18%  
49 1.4% 14%  
50 8% 12%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.1% 0.7%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 10% 99.6%  
4 8% 89% Last Result
5 65% 81% Median
6 4% 16%  
7 2% 12%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0.4% 0.7%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 359 93% 329–379 324–385 318–388 307–394
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 354 88% 324–375 319–380 313–383 302–389
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 322 46% 291–347 285–352 280–358 269–369
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 312 27% 288–344 282–349 277–355 265–366
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 328 55% 298–346 293–351 287–354 277–360
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 318 32% 286–342 280–347 275–353 263–364
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 323 42% 293–341 287–346 282–350 271–355
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 307 23% 283–339 277–344 272–350 261–360
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 302 16% 284–331 279–337 275–343 270–353
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 291 2% 260–315 254–319 249–324 239–334
Labour Party 262 286 1.3% 255–310 249–314 244–319 234–329
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 276 0.9% 255–305 250–311 246–317 240–328
Conservative Party 317 271 0.3% 250–300 245–306 241–312 235–323

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.1% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.1% 99.4%  
310 0.2% 99.2%  
311 0.1% 99.0%  
312 0.1% 98.9%  
313 0.2% 98.7% Last Result
314 0.2% 98.6%  
315 0.1% 98%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.2% 98%  
318 0.1% 98%  
319 0.4% 97%  
320 0.5% 97%  
321 0.5% 97%  
322 0.5% 96%  
323 0.3% 96%  
324 1.0% 95%  
325 0.8% 94%  
326 1.0% 93% Majority
327 0.4% 92%  
328 1.0% 92%  
329 1.2% 91%  
330 1.1% 90%  
331 0.5% 89%  
332 0.8% 88%  
333 2% 87%  
334 0.9% 86%  
335 1.5% 85%  
336 2% 83%  
337 0.6% 82%  
338 0.5% 81%  
339 1.1% 80%  
340 1.5% 79%  
341 0.8% 78%  
342 1.1% 77%  
343 0.9% 76%  
344 1.3% 75%  
345 0.5% 74%  
346 1.4% 73%  
347 0.6% 72%  
348 0.9% 71%  
349 0.5% 70%  
350 2% 70%  
351 0.9% 68%  
352 2% 67%  
353 2% 65%  
354 2% 63%  
355 3% 61%  
356 1.2% 59%  
357 3% 57%  
358 2% 54%  
359 2% 51%  
360 0.8% 49%  
361 3% 48% Median
362 2% 45%  
363 4% 43%  
364 2% 39%  
365 4% 37%  
366 1.5% 33%  
367 3% 32%  
368 2% 29%  
369 2% 27%  
370 2% 25%  
371 2% 23%  
372 3% 22%  
373 1.3% 19%  
374 1.3% 18%  
375 2% 16%  
376 0.9% 14%  
377 2% 13%  
378 1.2% 12%  
379 0.7% 11%  
380 1.2% 10%  
381 0.8% 9%  
382 1.1% 8%  
383 1.0% 7%  
384 0.7% 6%  
385 1.0% 5%  
386 0.6% 4%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 1.0% 3%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.3% 2%  
391 0.3% 1.3%  
392 0.3% 1.0%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.5%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.2%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.1% 98.9%  
307 0.2% 98.8%  
308 0.1% 98.7%  
309 0.2% 98.5% Last Result
310 0.2% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.2% 97%  
315 0.6% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.5% 96%  
318 0.6% 96%  
319 1.0% 95%  
320 0.6% 94%  
321 1.2% 93%  
322 0.5% 92%  
323 1.4% 92%  
324 0.6% 90%  
325 1.3% 90%  
326 0.8% 88% Majority
327 1.0% 88%  
328 2% 87%  
329 0.8% 85%  
330 1.2% 84%  
331 1.5% 83%  
332 1.1% 81%  
333 0.4% 80%  
334 1.0% 80%  
335 1.5% 79%  
336 0.9% 77%  
337 1.0% 76%  
338 0.8% 76%  
339 0.7% 75%  
340 0.7% 74%  
341 1.4% 73%  
342 1.0% 72%  
343 0.4% 71%  
344 0.7% 70%  
345 1.5% 70%  
346 1.3% 68%  
347 2% 67%  
348 0.8% 65%  
349 2% 65%  
350 3% 62%  
351 2% 59%  
352 3% 57%  
353 2% 54%  
354 3% 51%  
355 0.5% 48%  
356 3% 48% Median
357 2% 45%  
358 5% 43%  
359 2% 38%  
360 4% 37%  
361 2% 33%  
362 3% 31%  
363 1.4% 28%  
364 2% 27%  
365 2% 25%  
366 2% 23%  
367 2% 21%  
368 2% 19%  
369 1.4% 17%  
370 1.4% 16%  
371 1.3% 15%  
372 1.5% 13%  
373 0.9% 12%  
374 0.9% 11%  
375 1.4% 10%  
376 0.5% 9%  
377 1.1% 8%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 0.6% 6%  
380 0.9% 5%  
381 0.9% 4%  
382 0.6% 4%  
383 0.8% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.3%  
387 0.2% 1.0%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.2% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.5%  
271 0.2% 99.3%  
272 0.1% 99.0%  
273 0% 99.0%  
274 0.1% 98.9%  
275 0.2% 98.8%  
276 0.1% 98.7%  
277 0.1% 98.5%  
278 0.1% 98% Last Result
279 0.5% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.5% 97%  
282 0.4% 97%  
283 0.5% 96%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 0.5% 95%  
286 0.4% 95%  
287 1.1% 95%  
288 1.3% 93%  
289 0.8% 92%  
290 0.9% 91%  
291 0.8% 91%  
292 1.1% 90%  
293 0.9% 89%  
294 1.0% 88%  
295 1.1% 87%  
296 1.4% 86%  
297 1.4% 84%  
298 1.1% 83%  
299 0.6% 82%  
300 0.9% 81%  
301 0.9% 80%  
302 0.5% 79%  
303 0.6% 79%  
304 0.9% 78%  
305 1.0% 78%  
306 0.7% 76%  
307 0.6% 76%  
308 1.5% 75%  
309 0.5% 74%  
310 1.4% 73%  
311 1.5% 72%  
312 1.0% 70%  
313 1.2% 69%  
314 1.4% 68%  
315 3% 67%  
316 1.3% 64%  
317 3% 63%  
318 2% 60%  
319 2% 58%  
320 1.3% 56%  
321 2% 55%  
322 3% 53% Median
323 1.2% 50%  
324 2% 49%  
325 1.4% 47%  
326 3% 46% Majority
327 3% 42%  
328 2% 39%  
329 3% 37%  
330 2% 34%  
331 3% 32%  
332 2% 29%  
333 1.2% 27%  
334 1.3% 25%  
335 1.4% 24%  
336 1.1% 23%  
337 0.9% 22%  
338 1.3% 21%  
339 0.9% 20%  
340 1.3% 19%  
341 1.3% 17%  
342 0.5% 16%  
343 0.8% 16%  
344 1.0% 15%  
345 1.3% 14%  
346 0.7% 13%  
347 2% 12%  
348 1.4% 10%  
349 1.0% 8%  
350 0.7% 7%  
351 0.8% 7%  
352 1.3% 6%  
353 0.4% 4%  
354 0.4% 4%  
355 0.6% 4%  
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.1% 3%  
358 0.2% 3%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.1% 2%  
362 0.1% 2%  
363 0.1% 2%  
364 0.2% 2%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.5%  
367 0.2% 1.1%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.4% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.7%  
265 0.2% 99.7%  
266 0.5% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.0%  
268 0.1% 98.9%  
269 0.3% 98.7%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.1% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.3% 97%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.7% 97%  
281 0.5% 96%  
282 1.1% 96%  
283 0.7% 94%  
284 1.1% 94%  
285 0.4% 93%  
286 0.5% 92%  
287 1.3% 92%  
288 3% 91%  
289 1.1% 88%  
290 0.9% 87%  
291 0.8% 86%  
292 0.5% 85%  
293 0.5% 84%  
294 1.3% 84%  
295 2% 83%  
296 1.2% 81%  
297 1.2% 80%  
298 1.1% 79%  
299 0.7% 78%  
300 2% 77%  
301 1.3% 75%  
302 2% 74%  
303 1.0% 72%  
304 4% 71%  
305 2% 67%  
306 3% 65%  
307 3% 62%  
308 1.4% 59%  
309 4% 58%  
310 1.2% 54%  
311 2% 53%  
312 2% 51%  
313 2% 48%  
314 1.4% 46%  
315 2% 45% Median
316 2% 43%  
317 2% 41%  
318 2% 39%  
319 2% 37%  
320 2% 35%  
321 1.3% 33%  
322 1.0% 32%  
323 1.1% 31%  
324 1.5% 30%  
325 0.9% 28%  
326 1.0% 27% Majority
327 1.1% 26%  
328 1.1% 25%  
329 0.2% 24%  
330 1.3% 24%  
331 0.7% 22%  
332 0.5% 22%  
333 1.0% 21%  
334 0.9% 20%  
335 0.5% 19%  
336 0.3% 19%  
337 1.5% 19%  
338 2% 17%  
339 0.8% 16%  
340 1.3% 15%  
341 0.9% 13%  
342 0.9% 12%  
343 1.2% 12%  
344 0.8% 10%  
345 0.9% 10%  
346 1.0% 9%  
347 1.4% 8%  
348 0.8% 6%  
349 0.6% 6%  
350 0.7% 5%  
351 0.5% 4%  
352 0.4% 4%  
353 0.5% 3%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.4% 2% Last Result
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.1% 2%  
360 0.1% 1.4%  
361 0.1% 1.3%  
362 0.1% 1.2%  
363 0.1% 1.1%  
364 0.2% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.2% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.2% 98.8%  
283 0.1% 98.6%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.3% 97%  
289 0.7% 97%  
290 0.2% 96%  
291 0.6% 96%  
292 0.5% 96%  
293 0.8% 95%  
294 0.7% 94%  
295 0.8% 94%  
296 0.7% 93%  
297 0.9% 92%  
298 2% 91%  
299 1.0% 89%  
300 0.7% 88%  
301 0.6% 88% Last Result
302 0.7% 87%  
303 1.1% 86%  
304 2% 85%  
305 1.4% 84%  
306 1.4% 82%  
307 1.1% 81%  
308 0.9% 80%  
309 0.8% 79%  
310 0.9% 78%  
311 0.5% 77%  
312 2% 77%  
313 1.2% 74%  
314 0.7% 73%  
315 1.5% 72%  
316 0.7% 71%  
317 0.7% 70%  
318 2% 70%  
319 2% 68%  
320 0.9% 66%  
321 0.9% 65%  
322 2% 64%  
323 3% 62%  
324 0.5% 59%  
325 3% 58%  
326 3% 55% Majority
327 2% 53%  
328 3% 51%  
329 3% 48%  
330 3% 45% Median
331 2% 42%  
332 4% 41%  
333 1.3% 37%  
334 3% 36%  
335 3% 32%  
336 3% 30%  
337 3% 27%  
338 2% 24%  
339 2% 22%  
340 1.5% 20%  
341 2% 18%  
342 2% 17%  
343 2% 15%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 12%  
346 1.3% 10%  
347 0.6% 9%  
348 0.9% 8%  
349 0.9% 7%  
350 0.9% 6%  
351 0.5% 5%  
352 1.2% 5%  
353 0.9% 4%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.6% 2%  
357 0.3% 1.5%  
358 0.4% 1.2%  
359 0.3% 0.8%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.2% 99.6%  
264 0.2% 99.5%  
265 0.2% 99.3%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.1% 99.0%  
268 0.1% 98.9%  
269 0.1% 98.8%  
270 0.1% 98.7%  
271 0.1% 98.6%  
272 0.1% 98.5%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.5% 98% Last Result
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.4% 97%  
277 0.6% 97%  
278 0.4% 96%  
279 0.5% 96%  
280 1.0% 96%  
281 0.2% 95%  
282 1.0% 94%  
283 1.5% 93%  
284 1.2% 92%  
285 0.5% 91%  
286 1.1% 90%  
287 1.2% 89%  
288 1.0% 88%  
289 0.9% 87%  
290 1.1% 86%  
291 2% 85%  
292 1.2% 84%  
293 1.0% 82%  
294 0.3% 81%  
295 1.0% 81%  
296 1.0% 80%  
297 0.4% 79%  
298 0.5% 79%  
299 0.7% 78%  
300 0.7% 77%  
301 0.7% 77%  
302 0.4% 76%  
303 2% 76%  
304 0.7% 74%  
305 1.0% 73%  
306 2% 72%  
307 0.8% 70%  
308 0.9% 69%  
309 2% 68%  
310 2% 67%  
311 2% 64%  
312 2% 63%  
313 2% 60%  
314 2% 58%  
315 1.2% 56%  
316 2% 55%  
317 3% 53% Median
318 2% 50%  
319 2% 49%  
320 1.4% 47%  
321 4% 45%  
322 2% 42%  
323 3% 39%  
324 2% 36%  
325 2% 34%  
326 3% 32% Majority
327 1.5% 28%  
328 0.8% 27%  
329 1.1% 26%  
330 2% 25%  
331 2% 23%  
332 0.7% 22%  
333 2% 21%  
334 0.8% 19%  
335 1.4% 19%  
336 1.1% 17%  
337 0.4% 16%  
338 0.6% 16%  
339 1.0% 15%  
340 0.9% 14%  
341 0.9% 13%  
342 3% 12%  
343 0.9% 9%  
344 0.6% 8%  
345 0.8% 8%  
346 1.1% 7%  
347 1.1% 6%  
348 0.5% 5%  
349 0.6% 4%  
350 0.5% 4%  
351 0.3% 3%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.2% 3%  
354 0.1% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.1% 2%  
358 0% 2%  
359 0.1% 2%  
360 0.1% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.2% 1.3%  
363 0.3% 1.1%  
364 0.4% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.4%  
274 0.1% 99.3%  
275 0.2% 99.1%  
276 0.2% 98.9%  
277 0.3% 98.7%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.4% 97%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.8% 96%  
287 0.5% 95%  
288 0.6% 95%  
289 0.8% 94%  
290 0.7% 93%  
291 1.1% 93%  
292 1.4% 92%  
293 1.0% 90%  
294 0.9% 89%  
295 1.2% 88%  
296 0.8% 87%  
297 1.0% 86% Last Result
298 0.5% 85%  
299 2% 85%  
300 1.5% 83%  
301 0.9% 82%  
302 2% 81%  
303 0.8% 79%  
304 0.9% 78%  
305 0.6% 77%  
306 0.8% 77%  
307 2% 76%  
308 2% 75%  
309 1.0% 73%  
310 0.8% 72%  
311 0.8% 71%  
312 0.9% 70%  
313 2% 69%  
314 2% 68%  
315 1.3% 66%  
316 1.2% 65%  
317 2% 64%  
318 3% 62%  
319 1.2% 60%  
320 2% 58%  
321 3% 56%  
322 2% 53%  
323 3% 51%  
324 3% 47%  
325 2% 44% Median
326 1.4% 42% Majority
327 4% 41%  
328 1.4% 37%  
329 4% 36%  
330 3% 32%  
331 2% 29%  
332 3% 27%  
333 2% 24%  
334 2% 22%  
335 0.8% 19%  
336 2% 19%  
337 2% 17%  
338 2% 15%  
339 2% 13%  
340 0.8% 11%  
341 1.4% 11%  
342 1.0% 9%  
343 0.5% 8%  
344 1.0% 8%  
345 1.1% 7%  
346 0.6% 6%  
347 1.1% 5%  
348 1.0% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.5% 3%  
351 0.6% 2%  
352 0.3% 1.4%  
353 0.3% 1.1%  
354 0.3% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.5%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.4% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.1%  
263 0.1% 98.9%  
264 0.3% 98.9%  
265 0.2% 98.5%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.1% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.2% 97%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 0.5% 96%  
277 1.3% 96%  
278 0.5% 94%  
279 0.7% 94%  
280 0.8% 93%  
281 0.8% 92%  
282 1.4% 92%  
283 2% 90%  
284 1.1% 88%  
285 1.2% 87%  
286 0.8% 86%  
287 0.8% 85%  
288 0.6% 84%  
289 1.4% 84%  
290 1.2% 82%  
291 1.3% 81%  
292 0.8% 80%  
293 1.3% 79%  
294 0.7% 78%  
295 1.1% 77%  
296 2% 76%  
297 2% 74%  
298 2% 72%  
299 4% 71%  
300 2% 67%  
301 3% 65%  
302 3% 61%  
303 1.2% 58%  
304 4% 57%  
305 1.1% 53%  
306 2% 52%  
307 2% 51%  
308 2% 48%  
309 2% 46%  
310 2% 45% Median
311 2% 43%  
312 2% 41%  
313 2% 39%  
314 1.0% 37%  
315 3% 36%  
316 0.9% 33%  
317 1.3% 32%  
318 1.3% 31%  
319 1.2% 29%  
320 1.3% 28%  
321 0.8% 27%  
322 1.0% 26%  
323 0.8% 25%  
324 0.7% 24%  
325 1.1% 24%  
326 1.0% 23% Majority
327 0.6% 21%  
328 0.9% 21%  
329 1.0% 20%  
330 0.3% 19%  
331 0.7% 19%  
332 1.5% 18%  
333 2% 16%  
334 0.5% 15%  
335 2% 14%  
336 0.8% 13%  
337 0.7% 12%  
338 1.0% 11%  
339 1.1% 10%  
340 0.5% 9%  
341 0.9% 9%  
342 1.3% 8%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 0.7% 5%  
345 0.3% 5%  
346 0.5% 4%  
347 0.4% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.4% 3%  
350 0.5% 3%  
351 0.4% 2%  
352 0.2% 2% Last Result
353 0.1% 2%  
354 0.1% 1.5%  
355 0.2% 1.4%  
356 0.1% 1.2%  
357 0.1% 1.1%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.5%  
271 0.4% 99.4%  
272 0.2% 98.9%  
273 0.5% 98.7%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.4% 98%  
276 0.5% 97%  
277 1.2% 97%  
278 0.6% 96%  
279 0.8% 95%  
280 0.8% 94%  
281 0.7% 94%  
282 0.7% 93%  
283 1.4% 92%  
284 1.5% 91%  
285 2% 89%  
286 2% 88%  
287 2% 86%  
288 1.2% 84%  
289 2% 83%  
290 2% 81%  
291 2% 79%  
292 3% 77%  
293 1.4% 74%  
294 3% 73%  
295 2% 69%  
296 4% 67%  
297 4% 64%  
298 0.9% 60%  
299 2% 59%  
300 2% 57%  
301 4% 55%  
302 1.5% 50% Median
303 3% 49%  
304 4% 47%  
305 1.4% 43%  
306 1.2% 42%  
307 2% 40%  
308 2% 38%  
309 2% 36%  
310 0.5% 35%  
311 2% 34%  
312 2% 32%  
313 0.5% 30%  
314 0.9% 30%  
315 1.1% 29%  
316 1.0% 28%  
317 2% 27%  
318 1.4% 25%  
319 0.6% 23%  
320 0.8% 23%  
321 1.1% 22%  
322 0.7% 21%  
323 2% 20%  
324 1.2% 19%  
325 1.3% 17%  
326 2% 16% Majority
327 1.3% 14%  
328 0.4% 13%  
329 0.8% 13% Last Result
330 0.7% 12%  
331 1.4% 11%  
332 1.0% 10%  
333 1.0% 9%  
334 1.1% 8%  
335 0.3% 7%  
336 1.0% 6%  
337 0.7% 5%  
338 0.3% 5%  
339 0.6% 4%  
340 0.2% 4%  
341 0.7% 4%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.2% 1.2%  
350 0.2% 1.0%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.2% 99.7%  
240 0.2% 99.5%  
241 0.2% 99.3%  
242 0.1% 99.1%  
243 0.1% 99.0%  
244 0.1% 98.8%  
245 0.1% 98.7%  
246 0.1% 98.6%  
247 0.2% 98%  
248 0.5% 98%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 0.2% 97%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 0.5% 96%  
253 0.5% 96%  
254 0.6% 95%  
255 0.2% 95%  
256 0.6% 95%  
257 1.1% 94%  
258 1.3% 93%  
259 1.3% 92%  
260 1.0% 90%  
261 0.9% 89%  
262 0.5% 88%  
263 1.4% 88%  
264 1.0% 87%  
265 1.1% 86%  
266 0.8% 84% Last Result
267 0.7% 84%  
268 0.8% 83%  
269 0.9% 82%  
270 0.9% 81%  
271 0.5% 80%  
272 1.3% 80%  
273 1.0% 79%  
274 2% 78%  
275 0.7% 76%  
276 0.9% 75%  
277 2% 74%  
278 1.2% 73%  
279 0.9% 71%  
280 1.2% 70%  
281 2% 69%  
282 1.4% 67%  
283 1.0% 66%  
284 1.4% 65%  
285 2% 64%  
286 3% 62%  
287 2% 59%  
288 2% 57%  
289 4% 56%  
290 1.4% 52%  
291 2% 50% Median
292 1.5% 49%  
293 2% 47%  
294 3% 45%  
295 2% 42%  
296 2% 40%  
297 4% 38%  
298 2% 34%  
299 2% 33%  
300 1.2% 31%  
301 1.5% 29%  
302 3% 28%  
303 3% 25%  
304 2% 22%  
305 0.7% 20%  
306 1.0% 19%  
307 1.4% 18%  
308 1.3% 17%  
309 1.0% 16%  
310 0.9% 15%  
311 1.5% 14%  
312 0.5% 12%  
313 0.9% 12%  
314 0.7% 11%  
315 2% 10%  
316 0.6% 8%  
317 1.1% 7%  
318 0.6% 6%  
319 1.3% 6%  
320 0.7% 4%  
321 0.5% 4%  
322 0.2% 3%  
323 0.2% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.1% 1.3%  
331 0.3% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.2% 99.5%  
235 0.1% 99.3%  
236 0.1% 99.2%  
237 0.2% 99.1%  
238 0.1% 98.9%  
239 0.1% 98.8%  
240 0.1% 98.7%  
241 0.1% 98.6%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.2% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.4% 97%  
246 0.4% 97%  
247 0.5% 97%  
248 0.7% 96%  
249 0.6% 95%  
250 0.2% 95%  
251 0.6% 95%  
252 0.9% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 0.9% 91%  
255 1.4% 90%  
256 1.3% 89%  
257 1.0% 88%  
258 1.2% 87%  
259 0.8% 85%  
260 0.7% 85%  
261 0.5% 84%  
262 0.7% 83% Last Result
263 0.8% 83%  
264 1.1% 82%  
265 1.0% 81%  
266 0.5% 80%  
267 0.6% 79%  
268 2% 79%  
269 1.1% 77%  
270 1.4% 76%  
271 0.9% 75%  
272 1.3% 74%  
273 1.2% 73%  
274 1.0% 71%  
275 1.2% 70%  
276 1.4% 69%  
277 2% 68%  
278 1.1% 66%  
279 2% 65%  
280 1.2% 64%  
281 3% 62%  
282 3% 60%  
283 2% 57%  
284 4% 55%  
285 1.3% 52%  
286 2% 50% Median
287 1.4% 48%  
288 3% 47%  
289 4% 44%  
290 2% 40%  
291 2% 39%  
292 2% 37%  
293 2% 35%  
294 2% 33%  
295 0.9% 31%  
296 1.3% 30%  
297 3% 28%  
298 3% 26%  
299 2% 22%  
300 0.9% 20%  
301 1.0% 19%  
302 1.3% 18%  
303 1.3% 17%  
304 0.9% 16%  
305 0.8% 15%  
306 1.1% 14%  
307 0.6% 13%  
308 1.2% 12%  
309 0.6% 11%  
310 2% 10%  
311 0.7% 8%  
312 1.1% 8%  
313 0.5% 6%  
314 1.3% 6%  
315 0.8% 5%  
316 0.6% 4%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.3% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.2% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.2% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.1% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.5%  
326 0.4% 1.3% Majority
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.1% 99.5%  
241 0.2% 99.4%  
242 0.1% 99.3%  
243 0.4% 99.1%  
244 0.3% 98.8%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.6% 98%  
247 0.6% 97%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.9% 96%  
250 0.8% 95%  
251 0.7% 94%  
252 1.1% 94%  
253 0.7% 93%  
254 2% 92%  
255 0.9% 90%  
256 1.0% 89%  
257 1.3% 88%  
258 0.8% 87%  
259 1.4% 86%  
260 2% 85%  
261 1.5% 83%  
262 2% 82%  
263 1.5% 80%  
264 3% 79%  
265 2% 76%  
266 2% 74%  
267 1.1% 72%  
268 3% 71%  
269 4% 68%  
270 1.2% 64%  
271 3% 63%  
272 4% 60%  
273 2% 56%  
274 2% 54%  
275 0.9% 52%  
276 3% 51% Median
277 4% 48%  
278 3% 45%  
279 1.4% 42%  
280 3% 41%  
281 2% 37%  
282 1.3% 36%  
283 1.1% 34%  
284 2% 33%  
285 1.1% 31%  
286 0.9% 30%  
287 0.4% 29%  
288 0.7% 29%  
289 2% 28%  
290 1.0% 27%  
291 0.5% 26%  
292 0.8% 25%  
293 1.1% 24%  
294 2% 23%  
295 0.7% 22%  
296 0.9% 21%  
297 0.4% 20%  
298 2% 20%  
299 2% 18%  
300 0.9% 17%  
301 1.1% 16%  
302 2% 15%  
303 0.8% 13%  
304 1.3% 12%  
305 0.9% 11%  
306 0.9% 10%  
307 1.0% 9%  
308 0.7% 8%  
309 0.9% 7%  
310 1.0% 7%  
311 0.7% 6%  
312 0.6% 5%  
313 0.4% 4%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.3% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.2% 2% Last Result
322 0.1% 1.5%  
323 0.2% 1.3%  
324 0.1% 1.2%  
325 0.2% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 0.9% Majority
327 0.1% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7%  
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.5%  
237 0.1% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 99.1%  
239 0.3% 98.8%  
240 0.3% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 0.4% 97%  
244 0.9% 96%  
245 0.6% 95%  
246 0.9% 95%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 0.4% 93%  
249 1.4% 92%  
250 1.2% 91%  
251 1.2% 90%  
252 1.3% 89%  
253 0.6% 87%  
254 2% 87%  
255 2% 85%  
256 1.4% 83%  
257 2% 82%  
258 2% 80%  
259 3% 78%  
260 2% 75%  
261 2% 74%  
262 1.5% 72%  
263 3% 70%  
264 3% 68%  
265 2% 64%  
266 2% 62%  
267 3% 60%  
268 2% 56%  
269 2% 54%  
270 1.1% 52%  
271 2% 51% Median
272 4% 48%  
273 2% 44%  
274 2% 42%  
275 2% 40%  
276 1.1% 38%  
277 3% 37%  
278 0.8% 34%  
279 2% 33%  
280 1.0% 31%  
281 0.8% 30%  
282 0.8% 30%  
283 0.7% 29%  
284 0.8% 28%  
285 1.4% 27%  
286 1.0% 26%  
287 1.0% 25%  
288 1.1% 24%  
289 1.3% 23%  
290 0.9% 21%  
291 1.0% 21%  
292 0.5% 20%  
293 1.2% 19%  
294 2% 18%  
295 1.3% 16%  
296 1.1% 15%  
297 2% 14%  
298 0.6% 12%  
299 0.9% 12%  
300 1.2% 11%  
301 0.7% 10%  
302 1.0% 9%  
303 0.6% 8%  
304 0.8% 7%  
305 1.0% 6%  
306 0.8% 5%  
307 0.3% 5%  
308 0.5% 4%  
309 0.5% 4%  
310 0.3% 3%  
311 0.5% 3%  
312 0.2% 3%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
318 0.1% 1.3%  
319 0.2% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations