Opinion Poll by YouGov for Times, 8–9 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.0% 39.4–42.6% 39.0–43.0% 38.6–43.4% 37.9–44.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.0% 35.5–38.5% 35.0–39.0% 34.7–39.3% 34.0–40.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.0–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 315 292–330 287–334 280–338 268–348
Labour Party 262 239 228–258 225–266 221–272 215–282
Liberal Democrats 12 20 15–24 13–25 13–26 11–27
Scottish National Party 35 51 48–56 45–57 41–57 40–57
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 3–5 2–5 1–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.4%  
272 0.1% 99.3%  
273 0% 99.3%  
274 0% 99.3%  
275 1.0% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0% 98%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.1% 96%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 0% 95%  
287 0.8% 95%  
288 0.4% 94%  
289 0.8% 94%  
290 0.3% 93%  
291 0.5% 93%  
292 3% 93%  
293 0.8% 90%  
294 0.5% 89%  
295 1.4% 89%  
296 0.1% 87%  
297 0.4% 87%  
298 0.4% 87%  
299 1.1% 86%  
300 0.1% 85%  
301 2% 85%  
302 0.4% 83%  
303 4% 83%  
304 2% 79%  
305 0.1% 76%  
306 8% 76%  
307 2% 68%  
308 1.0% 66%  
309 0.3% 65%  
310 0.9% 65%  
311 0.4% 64%  
312 2% 63%  
313 7% 61%  
314 2% 55%  
315 3% 53% Median
316 0.8% 50%  
317 5% 49% Last Result
318 3% 44%  
319 16% 42%  
320 0.7% 26%  
321 1.4% 25%  
322 2% 23%  
323 0.3% 21%  
324 0.4% 21%  
325 2% 20%  
326 0.1% 18% Majority
327 5% 18%  
328 2% 13%  
329 0.4% 10%  
330 1.0% 10%  
331 0.6% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 0.7% 6%  
334 1.0% 5%  
335 0.1% 4%  
336 1.0% 4%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.8% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 1.4%  
342 0.1% 1.3%  
343 0.1% 1.3%  
344 0.4% 1.2%  
345 0% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.3% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.7%  
211 0% 99.6%  
212 0% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.2% 99.5%  
216 0% 99.3%  
217 0% 99.3%  
218 0.9% 99.3%  
219 0.6% 98%  
220 0.2% 98%  
221 0.1% 98%  
222 0.1% 97%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 2% 97%  
225 2% 95%  
226 1.3% 93%  
227 1.5% 92%  
228 5% 90%  
229 0.8% 86%  
230 0.3% 85%  
231 3% 84%  
232 2% 81%  
233 0.1% 80%  
234 0.1% 80%  
235 13% 80%  
236 5% 66%  
237 8% 62%  
238 3% 53%  
239 5% 50% Median
240 1.4% 45%  
241 0.3% 44%  
242 7% 44%  
243 0.5% 37%  
244 0.7% 37%  
245 2% 36%  
246 0.9% 34%  
247 7% 33%  
248 0.4% 26%  
249 0.3% 26%  
250 8% 26%  
251 0.2% 17%  
252 0% 17%  
253 0.5% 17%  
254 2% 17%  
255 2% 15%  
256 0.2% 13%  
257 2% 13%  
258 1.4% 11%  
259 0.1% 10%  
260 2% 10%  
261 2% 8%  
262 0.2% 6% Last Result
263 0.1% 6%  
264 0.1% 6%  
265 0.1% 5%  
266 0.7% 5%  
267 0.1% 5%  
268 0.1% 5%  
269 0.8% 4%  
270 0.8% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.5% 3%  
273 0% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.8% 2%  
276 0% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0% 0.8%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0.1% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.4% 99.8%  
12 2% 99.5% Last Result
13 3% 98%  
14 3% 95%  
15 5% 92%  
16 5% 87%  
17 9% 82%  
18 5% 73%  
19 15% 68%  
20 15% 53% Median
21 14% 38%  
22 3% 24%  
23 1.4% 21%  
24 11% 20%  
25 5% 9%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100% Last Result
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.1% 99.7%  
39 0.1% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 1.5% 98%  
42 0.6% 96%  
43 0.1% 96%  
44 0.1% 95%  
45 0.8% 95%  
46 1.4% 95%  
47 2% 93%  
48 2% 92%  
49 4% 90%  
50 5% 85%  
51 38% 80% Median
52 13% 42%  
53 4% 29%  
54 11% 25%  
55 3% 14%  
56 4% 11%  
57 7% 7%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.7%  
2 2% 99.3%  
3 19% 97%  
4 24% 78% Last Result
5 52% 54% Median
6 0.8% 2%  
7 0.2% 1.3%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 371 99.5% 349–384 342–388 337–392 327–399
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 368 99.2% 345–379 339–384 332–388 322–395
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 334 73% 316–348 309–353 302–357 291–364
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 315 24% 300–338 296–343 292–350 282–362
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 311 15% 296–333 292–339 288–345 278–358
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 320 24% 297–334 291–338 285–342 272–352
Conservative Party 317 315 18% 292–330 287–334 280–338 268–348
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 296 4% 282–314 278–321 274–328 266–340
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 291 2% 279–310 274–318 269–324 261–336
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 262 0% 251–285 246–291 242–298 235–308
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 259 0% 246–281 242–288 238–293 231–303
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 243 0% 231–263 229–270 226–276 219–287
Labour Party 262 239 0% 228–258 225–266 221–272 215–282

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0% 99.3%  
330 0.9% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0% 98%  
333 0% 98%  
334 0.3% 98%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.1% 98%  
337 0.7% 98%  
338 0.1% 97%  
339 0.9% 97%  
340 0.4% 96%  
341 0.3% 96%  
342 0.5% 95%  
343 0.1% 95%  
344 0.3% 95%  
345 0.1% 94%  
346 0.7% 94%  
347 2% 94%  
348 0.4% 91%  
349 1.0% 91%  
350 0.4% 90%  
351 0.3% 89%  
352 0.4% 89%  
353 0.9% 89%  
354 1.3% 88%  
355 0.1% 86%  
356 0.1% 86% Last Result
357 1.4% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 4% 82%  
360 0.5% 78%  
361 10% 78%  
362 0.2% 68%  
363 0.9% 68%  
364 0.3% 67%  
365 2% 67%  
366 0.7% 65%  
367 6% 64%  
368 2% 58%  
369 3% 56%  
370 1.4% 54%  
371 3% 52% Median
372 0.8% 49%  
373 0.4% 49%  
374 3% 48%  
375 14% 45%  
376 9% 32%  
377 0.2% 23%  
378 0.5% 23%  
379 2% 22%  
380 0.8% 20%  
381 5% 19%  
382 2% 14%  
383 2% 13%  
384 3% 11%  
385 0.2% 8%  
386 0.5% 8%  
387 0.6% 7%  
388 2% 7%  
389 0.3% 5%  
390 0.6% 5%  
391 0.5% 4%  
392 1.4% 4%  
393 0.7% 2%  
394 0.2% 1.5%  
395 0.5% 1.3%  
396 0.1% 0.8%  
397 0% 0.8%  
398 0% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.7%  
400 0% 0.5%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0% 0.4%  
403 0% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.7%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0% 99.6%  
322 0.1% 99.5%  
323 0% 99.4%  
324 0.1% 99.4%  
325 0.1% 99.3%  
326 0% 99.2% Majority
327 0.9% 99.1%  
328 0% 98%  
329 0% 98%  
330 0.4% 98%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.7% 98%  
333 0% 97%  
334 0% 97%  
335 0.5% 97%  
336 0.4% 96%  
337 0.4% 96%  
338 0.1% 96%  
339 0.9% 95%  
340 0.2% 94%  
341 0.8% 94%  
342 1.4% 94%  
343 0.8% 92%  
344 1.0% 91%  
345 0.6% 90%  
346 0.1% 90%  
347 1.1% 90%  
348 0.6% 88%  
349 0.6% 88%  
350 0.7% 87%  
351 0.3% 87%  
352 1.3% 86% Last Result
353 0.6% 85%  
354 2% 84%  
355 5% 83%  
356 2% 78%  
357 8% 76%  
358 0.9% 68%  
359 0.1% 67%  
360 0.6% 67%  
361 1.0% 66%  
362 2% 65%  
363 1.3% 63%  
364 7% 62%  
365 2% 54%  
366 1.3% 52% Median
367 0.4% 51%  
368 2% 51%  
369 3% 49%  
370 14% 46%  
371 4% 32%  
372 2% 28%  
373 4% 26%  
374 1.4% 22%  
375 0.5% 20%  
376 1.5% 20%  
377 2% 18%  
378 4% 17%  
379 3% 12%  
380 0.9% 9%  
381 0.7% 8%  
382 0.5% 8%  
383 2% 7%  
384 0.5% 5%  
385 0.5% 5%  
386 0.5% 4%  
387 0.9% 4%  
388 1.4% 3%  
389 0% 1.5%  
390 0.6% 1.4%  
391 0.1% 0.9%  
392 0% 0.8%  
393 0% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.7%  
395 0.2% 0.6%  
396 0% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.4%  
399 0% 0.3%  
400 0% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0% 99.6%  
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0% 99.3%  
294 0.1% 99.3%  
295 0.1% 99.2%  
296 0.1% 99.1%  
297 0.1% 99.0%  
298 0.2% 99.0%  
299 0% 98.7%  
300 1.0% 98.7%  
301 0.1% 98%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 0.3% 97%  
304 1.2% 97%  
305 0.1% 96%  
306 0% 96%  
307 0.4% 96%  
308 0.2% 95%  
309 1.5% 95%  
310 0.9% 94%  
311 0.1% 93%  
312 0.5% 93%  
313 0.9% 92%  
314 0.3% 91%  
315 0.8% 91%  
316 1.2% 90%  
317 1.4% 89%  
318 3% 88%  
319 0.5% 84%  
320 0.3% 84%  
321 2% 84%  
322 0.2% 82%  
323 0.3% 82%  
324 0.2% 82%  
325 8% 81%  
326 0.9% 73% Majority
327 4% 72%  
328 2% 68%  
329 1.4% 66% Last Result
330 2% 64%  
331 0.6% 62%  
332 3% 61%  
333 2% 59%  
334 9% 57%  
335 0.7% 48% Median
336 0.5% 47%  
337 8% 47%  
338 3% 39%  
339 14% 36%  
340 0.8% 22%  
341 0.2% 22%  
342 1.2% 21%  
343 0.7% 20%  
344 2% 19%  
345 2% 18%  
346 2% 16%  
347 0.7% 14%  
348 5% 14%  
349 1.1% 9%  
350 2% 8%  
351 0.2% 6%  
352 0.2% 6%  
353 1.4% 5%  
354 0.2% 4%  
355 0.1% 4%  
356 1.0% 4%  
357 0.3% 3%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.8% 2%  
360 0.5% 1.3%  
361 0% 0.8%  
362 0.1% 0.7%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.3% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.3%  
287 0.1% 98.8%  
288 0.1% 98.8%  
289 0.1% 98.7%  
290 0% 98.6%  
291 0.2% 98.6%  
292 0.9% 98%  
293 0.5% 97%  
294 1.2% 97%  
295 0.1% 96%  
296 1.1% 96%  
297 0.5% 95%  
298 1.0% 94%  
299 2% 93%  
300 1.0% 91%  
301 0.3% 90%  
302 2% 90%  
303 5% 87%  
304 0.2% 82%  
305 2% 82%  
306 0.8% 80%  
307 0.2% 79%  
308 2% 79%  
309 2% 77%  
310 0.6% 75%  
311 16% 75%  
312 3% 58%  
313 5% 56% Last Result
314 0.7% 51%  
315 3% 50% Median
316 1.3% 48%  
317 8% 46%  
318 1.1% 39%  
319 1.3% 38%  
320 0.9% 36%  
321 0.3% 35%  
322 1.0% 35%  
323 2% 34%  
324 8% 32%  
325 0.1% 24%  
326 2% 24% Majority
327 4% 22%  
328 0.1% 17%  
329 2% 17%  
330 0.1% 15%  
331 1.1% 15%  
332 0.4% 14%  
333 0.4% 13%  
334 0.1% 13%  
335 1.2% 13%  
336 0.7% 12%  
337 0.8% 11%  
338 3% 10%  
339 0.5% 7%  
340 0.3% 7%  
341 0.7% 7%  
342 0.4% 6%  
343 0.8% 6%  
344 0% 5%  
345 0.8% 5%  
346 0.1% 4%  
347 0.5% 4%  
348 0.3% 3%  
349 0.1% 3%  
350 0.7% 3%  
351 0% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0% 2%  
354 0% 2%  
355 1.1% 2%  
356 0% 0.8%  
357 0% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0% 0.7%  
360 0% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0% 99.4%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.5% 99.3%  
282 0% 98.8%  
283 0% 98.8%  
284 0.1% 98.8%  
285 0% 98.7%  
286 0.2% 98.6%  
287 0.9% 98%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 1.3% 97%  
290 0.1% 96%  
291 0% 96%  
292 1.5% 96%  
293 0.8% 94%  
294 0.3% 93%  
295 3% 93%  
296 0.7% 90%  
297 2% 90%  
298 1.3% 88%  
299 0.6% 87%  
300 5% 86%  
301 1.5% 81%  
302 0.6% 80%  
303 1.2% 79%  
304 2% 78%  
305 0.7% 76%  
306 13% 75%  
307 3% 62%  
308 7% 59%  
309 0.4% 52% Last Result
310 1.3% 51% Median
311 3% 50%  
312 3% 47%  
313 1.5% 44%  
314 5% 43%  
315 0.9% 37%  
316 1.1% 36%  
317 0.9% 35%  
318 2% 34%  
319 0.5% 33%  
320 8% 32%  
321 2% 24%  
322 0.4% 22%  
323 4% 21%  
324 0.6% 17%  
325 2% 17%  
326 1.0% 15% Majority
327 0.4% 14%  
328 0.4% 13%  
329 0.6% 13%  
330 0.5% 13%  
331 0.1% 12%  
332 0.4% 12%  
333 4% 11%  
334 0.1% 8%  
335 0.1% 8%  
336 1.4% 7%  
337 0.1% 6%  
338 0.1% 6%  
339 0.8% 6%  
340 0.3% 5%  
341 0.3% 5%  
342 0.1% 4%  
343 1.1% 4%  
344 0.1% 3%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.1% 2%  
347 0.1% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.1% 2%  
352 0.8% 2%  
353 0.1% 0.7%  
354 0% 0.7%  
355 0% 0.7%  
356 0% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.7%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.1% 99.5%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0% 99.4%  
276 0% 99.3%  
277 0.1% 99.3%  
278 0.8% 99.3%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.1% 98%  
284 0.1% 98%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.2% 97%  
287 1.0% 97%  
288 0% 96%  
289 0.3% 96%  
290 0.3% 95%  
291 0.8% 95%  
292 0% 94%  
293 0.2% 94%  
294 1.4% 94%  
295 0.1% 93%  
296 0.1% 92%  
297 4% 92%  
298 0.5% 89%  
299 0.2% 88%  
300 0.5% 88%  
301 0.5% 87%  
302 0.4% 87%  
303 0.4% 87%  
304 1.0% 86%  
305 2% 85%  
306 0.3% 83%  
307 4% 83%  
308 0.1% 79%  
309 2% 79%  
310 8% 76%  
311 0.6% 68%  
312 2% 68%  
313 0.9% 66%  
314 0.2% 65%  
315 2% 65%  
316 5% 63%  
317 2% 58%  
318 2% 56%  
319 3% 54%  
320 2% 51% Median
321 0.3% 49% Last Result
322 7% 48%  
323 3% 41%  
324 13% 38%  
325 0.9% 25%  
326 1.4% 24% Majority
327 2% 23%  
328 0.7% 21%  
329 1.4% 20%  
330 5% 19%  
331 0.6% 14%  
332 1.4% 14%  
333 2% 12%  
334 0.7% 10%  
335 1.3% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 0.8% 7%  
338 1.4% 6%  
339 0.2% 4%  
340 0% 4%  
341 1.0% 4%  
342 0.8% 3%  
343 0.9% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0% 1.4%  
346 0.1% 1.3%  
347 0% 1.3%  
348 0% 1.2%  
349 0.5% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.7%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.2% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.3%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0% 99.4%  
271 0% 99.4%  
272 0.1% 99.3%  
273 0% 99.3%  
274 0% 99.3%  
275 1.0% 99.2%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0% 98%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0% 98%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.2% 97%  
282 0.3% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.1% 96%  
285 0.8% 96%  
286 0% 95%  
287 0.8% 95%  
288 0.4% 94%  
289 0.8% 94%  
290 0.3% 93%  
291 0.5% 93%  
292 3% 93%  
293 0.8% 90%  
294 0.5% 89%  
295 1.4% 89%  
296 0.1% 87%  
297 0.4% 87%  
298 0.4% 87%  
299 1.1% 86%  
300 0.1% 85%  
301 2% 85%  
302 0.4% 83%  
303 4% 83%  
304 2% 79%  
305 0.1% 76%  
306 8% 76%  
307 2% 68%  
308 1.0% 66%  
309 0.3% 65%  
310 0.9% 65%  
311 0.4% 64%  
312 2% 63%  
313 7% 61%  
314 2% 55%  
315 3% 53% Median
316 0.8% 50%  
317 5% 49% Last Result
318 3% 44%  
319 16% 42%  
320 0.7% 26%  
321 1.4% 25%  
322 2% 23%  
323 0.3% 21%  
324 0.4% 21%  
325 2% 20%  
326 0.1% 18% Majority
327 5% 18%  
328 2% 13%  
329 0.4% 10%  
330 1.0% 10%  
331 0.6% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 0.7% 6%  
334 1.0% 5%  
335 0.1% 4%  
336 1.0% 4%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.8% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 1.4%  
342 0.1% 1.3%  
343 0.1% 1.3%  
344 0.4% 1.2%  
345 0% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.3% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.2% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.5% 99.2%  
271 0.8% 98.7%  
272 0% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 1.2% 98%  
275 0.2% 96%  
276 0.2% 96%  
277 0.1% 96%  
278 1.5% 96%  
279 0.2% 94%  
280 2% 94%  
281 1.0% 92%  
282 5% 91%  
283 0.5% 87%  
284 2% 86%  
285 2% 84%  
286 2% 82%  
287 0.8% 81%  
288 1.1% 80%  
289 0.3% 79%  
290 0.8% 78%  
291 12% 78%  
292 3% 65%  
293 8% 62%  
294 0.7% 53%  
295 0.8% 53% Median
296 9% 52%  
297 2% 43%  
298 3% 41%  
299 0.4% 39%  
300 3% 38%  
301 1.3% 36% Last Result
302 2% 34%  
303 4% 32%  
304 0.6% 28%  
305 9% 27%  
306 0.1% 19%  
307 0.4% 19%  
308 0.3% 18%  
309 1.5% 18%  
310 0.3% 17%  
311 0.5% 16%  
312 3% 16%  
313 2% 13%  
314 1.2% 11%  
315 0.7% 10%  
316 0.3% 9%  
317 0.8% 9%  
318 0.5% 8%  
319 0.1% 7%  
320 0.9% 7%  
321 1.5% 6%  
322 0.2% 5%  
323 0.4% 5%  
324 0.1% 4%  
325 0% 4%  
326 1.2% 4% Majority
327 0.3% 3%  
328 0.4% 3%  
329 0.1% 2%  
330 1.1% 2%  
331 0% 1.3%  
332 0.2% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.1%  
334 0.1% 1.0%  
335 0.1% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.7%  
339 0% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.4%  
343 0% 0.4%  
344 0% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.2% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.5%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0% 99.3%  
265 0.5% 99.3%  
266 0.9% 98.7%  
267 0% 98%  
268 0% 98%  
269 1.2% 98%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.2% 96%  
272 0.1% 96%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 2% 96%  
275 2% 94%  
276 0.2% 93%  
277 2% 93%  
278 0.6% 91%  
279 4% 90%  
280 3% 86%  
281 1.4% 83%  
282 1.1% 81%  
283 2% 80%  
284 0.3% 79%  
285 0.6% 78%  
286 12% 78%  
287 2% 66%  
288 6% 64%  
289 2% 58%  
290 4% 56% Median
291 4% 52%  
292 2% 49%  
293 8% 47%  
294 0.9% 39%  
295 0.4% 38%  
296 3% 38%  
297 2% 35% Last Result
298 0.4% 32%  
299 4% 32%  
300 0.7% 28%  
301 8% 27%  
302 0.4% 19%  
303 0.2% 18%  
304 2% 18%  
305 0.5% 17%  
306 0.1% 16%  
307 1.3% 16%  
308 3% 15%  
309 1.5% 12%  
310 0.6% 10%  
311 0.3% 10%  
312 1.3% 9%  
313 0.5% 8%  
314 0.2% 8%  
315 0.5% 7%  
316 0.1% 7%  
317 2% 7%  
318 0.5% 5%  
319 0.1% 5%  
320 0% 5%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.6% 4%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.1% 2%  
326 0.1% 2% Majority
327 1.0% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.2%  
329 0.1% 1.0%  
330 0.1% 0.9%  
331 0% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.8%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.6%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0% 0.5%  
338 0% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0.1% 100%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.8%  
230 0% 99.7%  
231 0% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.7%  
233 0% 99.6%  
234 0% 99.6%  
235 0.2% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0% 99.3%  
238 0.1% 99.3%  
239 0.1% 99.2%  
240 0.5% 99.1%  
241 0.1% 98.7%  
242 1.2% 98.5%  
243 1.1% 97%  
244 0.3% 96%  
245 0.7% 96%  
246 0.4% 95%  
247 2% 95%  
248 0.3% 93%  
249 0.8% 93%  
250 0.9% 92%  
251 2% 91%  
252 6% 89%  
253 2% 83%  
254 1.1% 82%  
255 0.9% 81%  
256 1.4% 80%  
257 4% 78%  
258 2% 74%  
259 4% 72%  
260 14% 68%  
261 4% 55%  
262 2% 51%  
263 0.5% 49%  
264 1.3% 49% Median
265 2% 48%  
266 7% 46%  
267 2% 39%  
268 1.4% 37%  
269 2% 36%  
270 0.4% 34%  
271 0.2% 33%  
272 0.9% 33%  
273 8% 32%  
274 2% 24%  
275 5% 22%  
276 2% 17%  
277 0.6% 16%  
278 1.1% 15% Last Result
279 0.3% 14%  
280 0.9% 14%  
281 0.6% 13%  
282 0.5% 12%  
283 1.2% 12%  
284 0% 10%  
285 0.6% 10%  
286 1.0% 10%  
287 0.8% 9%  
288 1.4% 8%  
289 0.8% 7%  
290 0.3% 6%  
291 0.9% 6%  
292 0.1% 5%  
293 0.4% 4%  
294 0.4% 4%  
295 0.5% 4%  
296 0.1% 3%  
297 0% 3%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.4% 2%  
301 0% 2%  
302 0% 2%  
303 0.9% 2%  
304 0% 0.9%  
305 0.1% 0.8%  
306 0% 0.7%  
307 0.1% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.6%  
309 0% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.3%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0% 99.6%  
229 0% 99.6%  
230 0.1% 99.6%  
231 0.3% 99.5%  
232 0% 99.3%  
233 0% 99.3%  
234 0% 99.2%  
235 0.5% 99.2%  
236 0.1% 98.7%  
237 0.7% 98.6%  
238 1.5% 98%  
239 0.4% 96%  
240 0.7% 96%  
241 0.1% 95%  
242 2% 95%  
243 0.4% 93%  
244 0.7% 93%  
245 0.1% 92%  
246 3% 92%  
247 0.6% 89%  
248 3% 89%  
249 5% 86%  
250 1.0% 81%  
251 2% 80%  
252 0.5% 78%  
253 0.3% 78%  
254 9% 77%  
255 13% 69%  
256 3% 55%  
257 0.4% 52%  
258 0.5% 51%  
259 3% 51% Median
260 0.9% 48%  
261 3% 47%  
262 2% 44%  
263 7% 42%  
264 0.7% 36%  
265 0.6% 35%  
266 1.3% 35%  
267 0.9% 33%  
268 0.1% 32%  
269 10% 32%  
270 0.8% 22%  
271 4% 22%  
272 2% 18%  
273 1.2% 15%  
274 0.3% 14% Last Result
275 0.1% 14%  
276 1.1% 14%  
277 1.1% 12%  
278 0.3% 11%  
279 0.4% 11%  
280 0.4% 11%  
281 1.1% 10%  
282 0.4% 9%  
283 2% 9%  
284 0.8% 7%  
285 0% 6%  
286 0.4% 6%  
287 0.1% 5%  
288 0.5% 5%  
289 0.3% 5%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 0.9% 4%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.1% 2%  
296 0.3% 2%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0% 2%  
299 0.1% 2%  
300 0.9% 2%  
301 0% 0.8%  
302 0% 0.7%  
303 0.2% 0.7%  
304 0% 0.5%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0% 0.4%  
307 0% 0.3%  
308 0% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
210 0% 100%  
211 0% 99.9%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.7%  
216 0% 99.6%  
217 0% 99.6%  
218 0.1% 99.6%  
219 0.2% 99.5%  
220 0% 99.3%  
221 0% 99.3%  
222 0.1% 99.3%  
223 0.9% 99.2%  
224 0.6% 98%  
225 0.1% 98%  
226 0.1% 98%  
227 0.2% 97%  
228 0.3% 97%  
229 2% 97%  
230 3% 95%  
231 6% 92%  
232 0.3% 86%  
233 0.8% 86%  
234 0.8% 85%  
235 1.1% 84%  
236 2% 83%  
237 0.6% 81%  
238 0% 80%  
239 4% 80%  
240 14% 76%  
241 3% 62%  
242 9% 60%  
243 5% 51%  
244 2% 46% Median
245 5% 44%  
246 0.3% 39%  
247 2% 39%  
248 0.4% 37%  
249 0.6% 36%  
250 2% 36%  
251 5% 34%  
252 3% 29%  
253 0.1% 26%  
254 8% 26%  
255 0.6% 18%  
256 0% 17%  
257 0.3% 17%  
258 0.4% 17%  
259 4% 16%  
260 0.2% 13%  
261 0.2% 13%  
262 1.5% 12%  
263 1.3% 11%  
264 2% 10%  
265 2% 8%  
266 0.5% 6% Last Result
267 0.3% 6%  
268 0.4% 6%  
269 0.1% 5%  
270 0.4% 5%  
271 0% 5%  
272 0.3% 5%  
273 0.1% 4%  
274 1.1% 4%  
275 0.5% 3%  
276 0.5% 3%  
277 0.1% 2%  
278 0.8% 2%  
279 0.1% 1.2%  
280 0% 1.1%  
281 0% 1.0%  
282 0.2% 1.0%  
283 0.1% 0.8%  
284 0.1% 0.7%  
285 0% 0.7%  
286 0.1% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.5%  
288 0% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
206 0% 100%  
207 0% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.9%  
209 0.1% 99.9%  
210 0.1% 99.7%  
211 0% 99.6%  
212 0% 99.6%  
213 0.1% 99.6%  
214 0.1% 99.6%  
215 0.2% 99.5%  
216 0% 99.3%  
217 0% 99.3%  
218 0.9% 99.3%  
219 0.6% 98%  
220 0.2% 98%  
221 0.1% 98%  
222 0.1% 97%  
223 0.3% 97%  
224 2% 97%  
225 2% 95%  
226 1.3% 93%  
227 1.5% 92%  
228 5% 90%  
229 0.8% 86%  
230 0.3% 85%  
231 3% 84%  
232 2% 81%  
233 0.1% 80%  
234 0.1% 80%  
235 13% 80%  
236 5% 66%  
237 8% 62%  
238 3% 53%  
239 5% 50% Median
240 1.4% 45%  
241 0.3% 44%  
242 7% 44%  
243 0.5% 37%  
244 0.7% 37%  
245 2% 36%  
246 0.9% 34%  
247 7% 33%  
248 0.4% 26%  
249 0.3% 26%  
250 8% 26%  
251 0.2% 17%  
252 0% 17%  
253 0.5% 17%  
254 2% 17%  
255 2% 15%  
256 0.2% 13%  
257 2% 13%  
258 1.4% 11%  
259 0.1% 10%  
260 2% 10%  
261 2% 8%  
262 0.2% 6% Last Result
263 0.1% 6%  
264 0.1% 6%  
265 0.1% 5%  
266 0.7% 5%  
267 0.1% 5%  
268 0.1% 5%  
269 0.8% 4%  
270 0.8% 4%  
271 0.3% 3%  
272 0.5% 3%  
273 0% 2%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.8% 2%  
276 0% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 1.0%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0% 0.8%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0.1% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations