Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 14–15 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.8% 40.3–43.4% 39.9–43.9% 39.5–44.2% 38.7–45.0%
Labour Party 40.0% 36.7% 35.2–38.3% 34.8–38.7% 34.4–39.1% 33.7–39.9%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.2% 8.3–10.1% 8.1–10.4% 7.8–10.7% 7.5–11.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.3–5.0% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.5%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.2% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.9%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 326 307–341 296–343 292–351 278–359
Labour Party 262 237 224–255 222–262 216–269 208–282
Liberal Democrats 12 20 16–26 15–26 14–27 12–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Scottish National Party 35 45 37–51 34–52 28–53 19–56
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 4 2–5 2–5 0–5 0–6

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.2% 98.9%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98.6%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 0.1% 97%  
294 0.5% 97%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 1.5% 96%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0.1% 94%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 0.3% 93%  
301 0.5% 93%  
302 0.5% 93%  
303 0.6% 92%  
304 0.6% 91%  
305 0.3% 91%  
306 0.1% 91%  
307 1.0% 90%  
308 0.5% 89%  
309 2% 89%  
310 0.5% 87%  
311 0.5% 87%  
312 1.0% 86%  
313 2% 85%  
314 2% 83%  
315 1.0% 81%  
316 1.3% 80%  
317 2% 79% Last Result
318 0.4% 77%  
319 5% 77%  
320 2% 72%  
321 3% 69%  
322 7% 66%  
323 5% 59%  
324 3% 54%  
325 0.9% 51%  
326 3% 50% Median, Majority
327 6% 48%  
328 1.3% 41%  
329 3% 40%  
330 4% 37%  
331 4% 33%  
332 3% 29%  
333 6% 26%  
334 2% 21%  
335 1.0% 18%  
336 0.8% 17%  
337 1.2% 16%  
338 1.5% 15%  
339 1.3% 14%  
340 0.9% 12%  
341 3% 11%  
342 3% 8%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 0.3% 5%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.1% 4%  
347 0.2% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.6% 3%  
350 0.1% 3%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.4%  
356 0.2% 1.2%  
357 0.2% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.8%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.2% 99.7%  
208 0.1% 99.6%  
209 0.6% 99.5%  
210 0.5% 98.8%  
211 0.1% 98%  
212 0% 98%  
213 0.1% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 0.3% 98%  
216 0.1% 98%  
217 0.2% 97%  
218 0.6% 97%  
219 0.5% 97%  
220 0.7% 96%  
221 0.3% 95%  
222 0.2% 95%  
223 0.4% 95%  
224 6% 95%  
225 1.4% 89%  
226 3% 87%  
227 0.9% 84%  
228 2% 83%  
229 2% 81%  
230 2% 79%  
231 2% 77%  
232 6% 74%  
233 4% 68%  
234 0.2% 64%  
235 5% 64%  
236 7% 59%  
237 5% 52% Median
238 6% 48%  
239 7% 42%  
240 7% 35%  
241 3% 27%  
242 3% 25%  
243 2% 21%  
244 1.0% 20%  
245 1.2% 19%  
246 1.0% 17%  
247 0.6% 16%  
248 0.6% 16%  
249 1.1% 15%  
250 1.2% 14%  
251 0.7% 13%  
252 0.3% 12%  
253 0.2% 12%  
254 0.8% 12%  
255 2% 11%  
256 0.2% 9%  
257 0.8% 9%  
258 0.7% 8%  
259 0.2% 7%  
260 0.3% 7%  
261 2% 7%  
262 0.7% 5% Last Result
263 1.1% 5%  
264 0.6% 3%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.1% 3%  
267 0.1% 3%  
268 0% 3%  
269 0.1% 3%  
270 0.1% 2%  
271 0.1% 2%  
272 0.2% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.1% 1.3%  
276 0.2% 1.2%  
277 0.2% 1.1%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0% 0.7%  
280 0% 0.7%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0.2% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 0.2% 99.8%  
12 0.8% 99.7% Last Result
13 0.8% 98.8%  
14 1.2% 98%  
15 4% 97%  
16 6% 93%  
17 10% 87%  
18 9% 77%  
19 6% 68%  
20 14% 63% Median
21 17% 49%  
22 6% 31%  
23 8% 25%  
24 4% 17%  
25 3% 13%  
26 7% 10%  
27 2% 3%  
28 1.3% 1.5%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100% Last Result
1 78% 78% Median
2 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0.1% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.7%  
16 0% 99.7%  
17 0.1% 99.6%  
18 0% 99.6%  
19 0.1% 99.6%  
20 0.2% 99.5%  
21 0.1% 99.3%  
22 0% 99.2%  
23 0.3% 99.2%  
24 0.5% 98.9%  
25 0.1% 98%  
26 0.3% 98%  
27 0.3% 98%  
28 0.3% 98%  
29 0.3% 97%  
30 0.6% 97%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0.9% 96%  
33 0.1% 96%  
34 0.4% 95%  
35 4% 95% Last Result
36 0.8% 91%  
37 4% 90%  
38 1.3% 87%  
39 5% 85%  
40 6% 81%  
41 4% 74%  
42 15% 70%  
43 0.5% 55%  
44 2% 54%  
45 9% 53% Median
46 6% 44%  
47 8% 38%  
48 4% 29%  
49 4% 25%  
50 3% 20%  
51 12% 18%  
52 2% 6%  
53 1.0% 3%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.4% 1.0%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 2% 97%  
2 9% 95%  
3 23% 86%  
4 24% 63% Last Result, Median
5 38% 39%  
6 0.3% 0.6%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 373 99.6% 353–388 347–390 339–396 327–404
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 369 99.1% 349–383 342–386 336–392 323–400
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 345 91% 328–360 320–363 314–370 299–377
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 329 62% 311–345 300–347 295–354 281–363
Conservative Party 317 326 50% 307–341 296–343 292–351 278–359
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 305 9% 290–323 287–334 280–338 272–352
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 301 7% 285–319 283–330 277–335 268–349
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 285 0.9% 271–302 267–310 261–316 253–331
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 281 0.6% 266–299 264–306 258–313 249–328
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 261 0% 248–281 244–288 238–295 230–307
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 257 0% 243–277 241–283 235–291 226–304
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 241 0% 229–259 226–266 219–273 212–286
Labour Party 262 237 0% 224–255 222–262 216–269 208–282

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0% 99.6%  
325 0% 99.6%  
326 0.1% 99.6% Majority
327 0.3% 99.5%  
328 0.1% 99.2%  
329 0% 99.1%  
330 0.4% 99.1%  
331 0.1% 98.7%  
332 0% 98.6%  
333 0.1% 98.6%  
334 0.3% 98.5%  
335 0.4% 98%  
336 0% 98%  
337 0.2% 98%  
338 0% 98%  
339 0.2% 98%  
340 0.3% 97%  
341 0.1% 97%  
342 0.2% 97%  
343 0.6% 97%  
344 0.4% 96%  
345 0.5% 96%  
346 0.2% 95%  
347 1.4% 95%  
348 0.8% 94%  
349 0.7% 93%  
350 0.4% 92%  
351 0.6% 92%  
352 0.6% 91%  
353 1.2% 91%  
354 0.4% 90%  
355 0.2% 89%  
356 0.8% 89% Last Result
357 0.7% 88%  
358 0.9% 87%  
359 0.4% 86%  
360 0.6% 86%  
361 0.7% 85%  
362 0.5% 85%  
363 2% 84%  
364 0.8% 82%  
365 0.6% 81%  
366 2% 80%  
367 2% 78%  
368 5% 76%  
369 4% 71%  
370 5% 68%  
371 4% 63%  
372 4% 58%  
373 6% 54%  
374 7% 48%  
375 2% 41% Median
376 4% 39%  
377 2% 35%  
378 8% 33%  
379 1.3% 25%  
380 1.1% 24%  
381 2% 23%  
382 2% 21%  
383 2% 19%  
384 2% 16%  
385 2% 15%  
386 0.8% 13%  
387 1.2% 12%  
388 4% 11%  
389 2% 7%  
390 1.4% 6%  
391 0.4% 4%  
392 0.7% 4%  
393 0.2% 3%  
394 0.3% 3%  
395 0.2% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.1% 2%  
399 0.1% 2%  
400 0.2% 2%  
401 0.2% 2%  
402 0.3% 2%  
403 0.5% 1.2%  
404 0.3% 0.7%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0% 99.7%  
321 0% 99.6%  
322 0% 99.6%  
323 0.2% 99.6%  
324 0.2% 99.3%  
325 0% 99.2%  
326 0.1% 99.1% Majority
327 0.3% 99.1%  
328 0% 98.7%  
329 0.1% 98.7%  
330 0.2% 98.6%  
331 0.1% 98%  
332 0.3% 98%  
333 0% 98%  
334 0.1% 98%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.2% 97%  
338 0.1% 97%  
339 1.0% 97%  
340 0.4% 96%  
341 0.2% 96%  
342 0.5% 95%  
343 0.9% 95%  
344 1.0% 94%  
345 0.1% 93%  
346 0.8% 93%  
347 0.5% 92%  
348 1.0% 92%  
349 0.7% 91%  
350 0.6% 90%  
351 0.5% 89%  
352 0.5% 89% Last Result
353 0.8% 88%  
354 0.6% 88%  
355 0.8% 87%  
356 0.6% 86%  
357 0.5% 86%  
358 2% 85%  
359 2% 83%  
360 0.4% 82%  
361 0.9% 81%  
362 0.8% 80%  
363 2% 80%  
364 4% 78%  
365 5% 74%  
366 6% 69%  
367 3% 63%  
368 2% 60%  
369 12% 58%  
370 4% 45%  
371 2% 42% Median
372 2% 39%  
373 7% 38%  
374 2% 31%  
375 4% 29%  
376 1.3% 24%  
377 2% 23%  
378 3% 21%  
379 2% 18%  
380 2% 16%  
381 1.3% 14%  
382 1.0% 13%  
383 4% 12%  
384 1.1% 8%  
385 0.7% 7%  
386 2% 7%  
387 0.5% 4%  
388 0.2% 4%  
389 0.4% 4%  
390 0.4% 3%  
391 0.3% 3%  
392 0.1% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.2% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.1% 1.3%  
399 0.4% 1.2%  
400 0.5% 0.9%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0% 99.4%  
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0% 99.3%  
304 0.2% 99.3%  
305 0.2% 99.1%  
306 0.2% 98.9%  
307 0.3% 98.7%  
308 0% 98%  
309 0.1% 98%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.7% 98%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.1% 97%  
317 0.5% 96%  
318 0.1% 96%  
319 0.7% 96%  
320 0.9% 95%  
321 0.7% 94%  
322 1.3% 94%  
323 0.1% 92%  
324 0.5% 92%  
325 0.5% 92%  
326 0.8% 91% Majority
327 0.1% 90%  
328 0.7% 90%  
329 0.9% 89% Last Result
330 0.4% 89%  
331 2% 88%  
332 1.4% 86%  
333 1.0% 85%  
334 2% 84%  
335 0.5% 82%  
336 0.9% 82%  
337 3% 81%  
338 0.8% 78%  
339 2% 77%  
340 5% 75%  
341 3% 69%  
342 0.7% 66%  
343 6% 66%  
344 2% 60%  
345 9% 58%  
346 4% 50% Median
347 6% 46%  
348 1.2% 40%  
349 3% 39%  
350 4% 36%  
351 3% 31%  
352 2% 28%  
353 6% 26%  
354 1.4% 21%  
355 1.3% 19%  
356 3% 18%  
357 2% 16%  
358 0.5% 14%  
359 1.0% 13%  
360 4% 12%  
361 1.2% 8%  
362 0.6% 7%  
363 1.5% 6%  
364 0.7% 5%  
365 0.2% 4%  
366 0.2% 4%  
367 0.7% 4%  
368 0.1% 3%  
369 0.2% 3%  
370 0.4% 3%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0% 2%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.3% 1.3%  
375 0.1% 1.0%  
376 0.3% 0.9%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0.1% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0% 99.5%  
283 0.4% 99.5%  
284 0% 99.1%  
285 0% 99.0%  
286 0.1% 99.0%  
287 0.2% 98.9%  
288 0.1% 98.7%  
289 0% 98.7%  
290 0.3% 98.6%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.1% 98%  
293 0.1% 98%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.7% 97%  
297 0.1% 97%  
298 0.1% 97%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 1.1% 96%  
301 0.3% 94%  
302 0.3% 94%  
303 0.3% 94%  
304 0.7% 94%  
305 0.1% 93%  
306 0.8% 93%  
307 0.7% 92%  
308 0.1% 91%  
309 0.6% 91%  
310 0.4% 91%  
311 0.8% 90%  
312 0.4% 89%  
313 2% 89%  
314 1.2% 87%  
315 0.9% 86%  
316 0.7% 85%  
317 2% 85%  
318 2% 82%  
319 0.8% 80%  
320 0.5% 79%  
321 0.8% 79% Last Result
322 4% 78%  
323 4% 75%  
324 2% 71%  
325 7% 68%  
326 2% 62% Majority
327 7% 60%  
328 1.0% 53%  
329 3% 52%  
330 2% 49% Median
331 7% 47%  
332 2% 41%  
333 2% 39%  
334 2% 36%  
335 4% 35%  
336 8% 31%  
337 2% 23%  
338 3% 21%  
339 1.2% 18%  
340 2% 17%  
341 0.3% 15%  
342 0.7% 15%  
343 2% 14%  
344 1.4% 12%  
345 1.0% 11%  
346 4% 10%  
347 1.0% 6%  
348 0.4% 5%  
349 0.3% 4%  
350 0.4% 4%  
351 0.3% 4%  
352 0.3% 3%  
353 0.4% 3%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.3% 2%  
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.5%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.4% 1.2%  
362 0.3% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.5%  
278 0% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.2% 98.9%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98.6%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.1% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 0.1% 97%  
294 0.5% 97%  
295 0.7% 96%  
296 1.5% 96%  
297 0.1% 94%  
298 0.1% 94%  
299 0.7% 94%  
300 0.3% 93%  
301 0.5% 93%  
302 0.5% 93%  
303 0.6% 92%  
304 0.6% 91%  
305 0.3% 91%  
306 0.1% 91%  
307 1.0% 90%  
308 0.5% 89%  
309 2% 89%  
310 0.5% 87%  
311 0.5% 87%  
312 1.0% 86%  
313 2% 85%  
314 2% 83%  
315 1.0% 81%  
316 1.3% 80%  
317 2% 79% Last Result
318 0.4% 77%  
319 5% 77%  
320 2% 72%  
321 3% 69%  
322 7% 66%  
323 5% 59%  
324 3% 54%  
325 0.9% 51%  
326 3% 50% Median, Majority
327 6% 48%  
328 1.3% 41%  
329 3% 40%  
330 4% 37%  
331 4% 33%  
332 3% 29%  
333 6% 26%  
334 2% 21%  
335 1.0% 18%  
336 0.8% 17%  
337 1.2% 16%  
338 1.5% 15%  
339 1.3% 14%  
340 0.9% 12%  
341 3% 11%  
342 3% 8%  
343 0.9% 6%  
344 0.3% 5%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.1% 4%  
347 0.2% 4%  
348 0.4% 4%  
349 0.6% 3%  
350 0.1% 3%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.2% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.4%  
356 0.2% 1.2%  
357 0.2% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.8%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.6%  
272 0.3% 99.6%  
273 0.2% 99.2%  
274 0.2% 99.0%  
275 0.2% 98.8%  
276 0.3% 98.6%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 0.1% 98%  
280 0.5% 98%  
281 0.1% 97%  
282 0.9% 97%  
283 0.2% 96%  
284 0.2% 96%  
285 0.3% 96%  
286 0.2% 96%  
287 0.9% 95%  
288 0.7% 95%  
289 3% 94%  
290 3% 91%  
291 1.5% 88%  
292 0.9% 87%  
293 2% 86%  
294 1.1% 84%  
295 0.7% 83%  
296 3% 82%  
297 6% 80%  
298 3% 74%  
299 3% 71%  
300 4% 67%  
301 2% 63%  
302 2% 61%  
303 3% 59%  
304 6% 57%  
305 2% 51%  
306 3% 49% Median
307 3% 46%  
308 9% 43%  
309 3% 34%  
310 3% 31%  
311 6% 29%  
312 0.3% 23%  
313 1.4% 23% Last Result
314 2% 21%  
315 1.0% 20%  
316 2% 19%  
317 2% 17%  
318 2% 16%  
319 0.5% 14%  
320 0.3% 13%  
321 1.4% 13%  
322 1.0% 12%  
323 1.0% 11%  
324 0.2% 10%  
325 0.3% 9%  
326 0.6% 9% Majority
327 0.6% 9%  
328 0.5% 8%  
329 0.4% 7%  
330 0.4% 7%  
331 0.7% 7%  
332 0.1% 6%  
333 0.1% 6%  
334 1.5% 6%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.5% 4%  
337 0.1% 3%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.1% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.1% 2%  
344 0.2% 2%  
345 0.1% 1.4%  
346 0.2% 1.3%  
347 0.1% 1.2%  
348 0.1% 1.1%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.3% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.5%  
353 0% 0.5%  
354 0.2% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.3% 99.6%  
269 0.4% 99.3%  
270 0.2% 98.8%  
271 0.1% 98.7%  
272 0% 98.5%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 0.3% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.4% 96%  
281 0.3% 96%  
282 0.4% 96%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 0.6% 94%  
285 4% 94%  
286 2% 90%  
287 1.1% 88%  
288 2% 87%  
289 0.6% 85%  
290 1.4% 85%  
291 1.2% 83%  
292 3% 82%  
293 2% 79%  
294 7% 77%  
295 5% 70%  
296 1.4% 65%  
297 2% 64%  
298 1.2% 61%  
299 4% 60%  
300 4% 56%  
301 2% 52%  
302 2% 49% Median
303 5% 47%  
304 3% 42%  
305 7% 39%  
306 2% 32%  
307 4% 29%  
308 3% 25%  
309 1.1% 22% Last Result
310 0.4% 21%  
311 0.9% 21%  
312 2% 20%  
313 2% 18%  
314 1.4% 16%  
315 0.9% 15%  
316 0.7% 14%  
317 2% 13%  
318 0.2% 11%  
319 1.0% 11%  
320 0.4% 10%  
321 0.6% 9%  
322 0% 9%  
323 0.6% 9%  
324 0.8% 8%  
325 0.2% 7%  
326 0.6% 7% Majority
327 0.4% 7%  
328 0.3% 6%  
329 0.3% 6%  
330 1.1% 6%  
331 0.9% 4%  
332 0.1% 4%  
333 0.1% 3%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.1% 2%  
337 0.1% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.1% 1.5%  
342 0% 1.4%  
343 0.2% 1.3%  
344 0.1% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 1.0%  
346 0% 1.0%  
347 0.4% 0.9%  
348 0% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.5%  
350 0% 0.5%  
351 0.2% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.3% 99.4%  
255 0.2% 99.1%  
256 0.2% 99.0%  
257 0.6% 98.8%  
258 0% 98%  
259 0.2% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.3% 98%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 0.4% 97%  
264 0.6% 97%  
265 0.2% 96%  
266 0.3% 96%  
267 1.1% 96%  
268 1.5% 95%  
269 0.4% 93%  
270 2% 93%  
271 4% 91%  
272 0.5% 87%  
273 0.8% 86%  
274 4% 86%  
275 0.9% 82%  
276 2% 81%  
277 6% 79%  
278 2% 74%  
279 3% 72%  
280 5% 70%  
281 3% 64%  
282 2% 62%  
283 5% 60%  
284 3% 55%  
285 7% 52%  
286 4% 45% Median
287 7% 41%  
288 0.7% 34%  
289 3% 34%  
290 5% 31%  
291 2% 26%  
292 0.8% 23%  
293 3% 23%  
294 1.0% 20%  
295 0.8% 19%  
296 1.3% 18%  
297 0.9% 17%  
298 2% 16%  
299 2% 14%  
300 0.4% 12%  
301 0.9% 11% Last Result
302 0.7% 11%  
303 0.1% 10%  
304 0.8% 10%  
305 0.5% 9%  
306 0.5% 8%  
307 0.1% 8%  
308 1.3% 8%  
309 0.8% 7%  
310 0.9% 6%  
311 0.7% 5%  
312 0.1% 4%  
313 0.6% 4%  
314 0.1% 4%  
315 0.3% 3%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.2% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.2% 1.3%  
325 0.2% 1.1%  
326 0.1% 0.9% Majority
327 0.1% 0.8%  
328 0% 0.7%  
329 0% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.2% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0% 99.7%  
248 0.2% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.3% 99.5%  
251 0.1% 99.1%  
252 0.2% 99.0%  
253 0.2% 98.8%  
254 0.4% 98.5%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.1% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 0.4% 97%  
261 0.2% 96%  
262 0.4% 96%  
263 0.7% 96%  
264 1.0% 95%  
265 3% 94%  
266 3% 92%  
267 0.4% 88%  
268 1.0% 88%  
269 0.9% 87%  
270 2% 86%  
271 2% 84%  
272 1.2% 81%  
273 3% 80%  
274 5% 77%  
275 5% 72%  
276 3% 68%  
277 1.4% 65%  
278 4% 63%  
279 3% 59%  
280 4% 57%  
281 4% 53%  
282 8% 49% Median
283 3% 41%  
284 5% 38%  
285 2% 34%  
286 7% 32%  
287 0.5% 25%  
288 2% 24%  
289 2% 23%  
290 1.2% 20%  
291 1.1% 19%  
292 1.2% 18%  
293 0.9% 17%  
294 3% 16%  
295 1.4% 13%  
296 1.0% 12%  
297 0.1% 11% Last Result
298 0.9% 11%  
299 0.7% 10%  
300 0.4% 9%  
301 0.5% 9%  
302 0.4% 9%  
303 0.2% 8%  
304 0.8% 8%  
305 2% 7%  
306 0.6% 6%  
307 0.3% 5%  
308 0.3% 5%  
309 0.7% 4%  
310 0.2% 4%  
311 0.2% 3%  
312 0.6% 3%  
313 0.4% 3%  
314 0.1% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.4%  
321 0.1% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 1.0%  
323 0% 0.8%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.6%  
231 0.6% 99.4%  
232 0% 98.8%  
233 0.4% 98.7%  
234 0.2% 98%  
235 0.2% 98%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.3% 98%  
239 0.2% 97%  
240 0.5% 97%  
241 0.4% 97%  
242 0.2% 96%  
243 0.5% 96%  
244 1.1% 96%  
245 2% 95%  
246 0.8% 93%  
247 1.1% 92%  
248 3% 91%  
249 1.0% 88%  
250 2% 87%  
251 0.7% 84%  
252 4% 84%  
253 2% 80%  
254 1.2% 77%  
255 4% 76%  
256 3% 73%  
257 7% 70%  
258 2% 62%  
259 2% 61%  
260 4% 59%  
261 9% 55% Median
262 6% 46%  
263 3% 40%  
264 6% 37%  
265 3% 31%  
266 5% 28%  
267 2% 23%  
268 0.8% 20%  
269 0.6% 20%  
270 0.7% 19%  
271 0.9% 18%  
272 2% 17%  
273 0.5% 15%  
274 0.6% 14%  
275 0.6% 14%  
276 0.8% 13%  
277 0.7% 12%  
278 0.5% 12% Last Result
279 0.6% 11%  
280 0.6% 11%  
281 0.7% 10%  
282 0.7% 9%  
283 0.7% 9%  
284 0.8% 8%  
285 0.1% 7%  
286 1.0% 7%  
287 0.9% 6%  
288 0.5% 5%  
289 0.2% 5%  
290 0.4% 4%  
291 1.0% 4%  
292 0.1% 3%  
293 0.2% 3%  
294 0.1% 3%  
295 0.2% 3%  
296 0.1% 2%  
297 0% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.2% 2%  
302 0% 1.3%  
303 0.3% 1.3%  
304 0.1% 0.9%  
305 0% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.8%  
307 0.2% 0.7%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.4%  
310 0% 0.4%  
311 0.1% 0.3%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
217 0.1% 100%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0.4% 99.4%  
228 0.5% 99.0%  
229 0.1% 98%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.1% 98%  
232 0.1% 98%  
233 0.2% 98%  
234 0.1% 98%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.2% 97%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.6% 97%  
239 0.4% 96%  
240 0.3% 96%  
241 3% 96%  
242 1.0% 93%  
243 4% 92%  
244 0.8% 88%  
245 2% 87%  
246 0.8% 86%  
247 3% 85%  
248 1.3% 81%  
249 2% 80%  
250 2% 78%  
251 0.9% 76%  
252 7% 76%  
253 3% 68%  
254 5% 66%  
255 2% 61%  
256 7% 59%  
257 3% 52% Median
258 7% 49%  
259 4% 42%  
260 5% 38%  
261 2% 32%  
262 6% 31%  
263 3% 25%  
264 2% 22%  
265 0.9% 20%  
266 0.3% 19%  
267 3% 19%  
268 0.7% 16%  
269 0.7% 15%  
270 0.6% 15%  
271 0.4% 14%  
272 0.9% 14%  
273 0.5% 13%  
274 1.0% 12% Last Result
275 0.2% 11%  
276 0.5% 11%  
277 1.2% 10%  
278 0.6% 9%  
279 0.7% 9%  
280 0.1% 8%  
281 1.0% 8%  
282 0.8% 7%  
283 1.4% 6%  
284 0.2% 5%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.4% 4%  
287 0.6% 4%  
288 0.2% 3%  
289 0.1% 3%  
290 0.3% 3%  
291 0.2% 3%  
292 0.1% 2%  
293 0.1% 2%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.4% 2%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0.1% 2%  
298 0.1% 1.4%  
299 0.1% 1.4%  
300 0.4% 1.3%  
301 0% 0.9%  
302 0.1% 0.9%  
303 0.3% 0.8%  
304 0.1% 0.5%  
305 0% 0.4%  
306 0% 0.4%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0% 0.2%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0.1% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0% 99.8%  
209 0% 99.8%  
210 0.1% 99.8%  
211 0.1% 99.7%  
212 0.2% 99.6%  
213 0.5% 99.4%  
214 0.6% 98.9%  
215 0.1% 98%  
216 0% 98%  
217 0% 98%  
218 0.2% 98%  
219 0.5% 98%  
220 0.5% 97%  
221 0.2% 97%  
222 0.3% 97%  
223 0.7% 96%  
224 0.5% 96%  
225 0.2% 95%  
226 0.6% 95%  
227 0.5% 94%  
228 0.4% 94%  
229 6% 94%  
230 3% 87%  
231 3% 84%  
232 0.8% 82%  
233 1.0% 81%  
234 4% 80%  
235 7% 76%  
236 5% 69%  
237 0.3% 64%  
238 0.9% 64%  
239 4% 63%  
240 6% 59%  
241 7% 54% Median
242 5% 47%  
243 10% 41%  
244 5% 32%  
245 1.3% 26%  
246 3% 25%  
247 3% 22%  
248 1.1% 19%  
249 0.5% 18%  
250 0.5% 17%  
251 2% 17%  
252 0.7% 15%  
253 0.6% 14%  
254 0.8% 14%  
255 0.9% 13%  
256 0.2% 12%  
257 0.1% 12%  
258 2% 12%  
259 2% 10%  
260 0.4% 9%  
261 0.3% 8%  
262 0.4% 8%  
263 0.6% 8%  
264 0.3% 7%  
265 1.3% 7%  
266 1.3% 6% Last Result
267 0.8% 4%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.1% 3%  
270 0.1% 3%  
271 0.1% 3%  
272 0% 3%  
273 0.1% 3%  
274 0.2% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.4%  
279 0.1% 1.3%  
280 0.3% 1.2%  
281 0.2% 0.9%  
282 0% 0.7%  
283 0.1% 0.7%  
284 0% 0.6%  
285 0% 0.6%  
286 0.2% 0.5%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
199 0% 100%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0% 99.8%  
205 0% 99.8%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.2% 99.7%  
208 0.1% 99.6%  
209 0.6% 99.5%  
210 0.5% 98.8%  
211 0.1% 98%  
212 0% 98%  
213 0.1% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 0.3% 98%  
216 0.1% 98%  
217 0.2% 97%  
218 0.6% 97%  
219 0.5% 97%  
220 0.7% 96%  
221 0.3% 95%  
222 0.2% 95%  
223 0.4% 95%  
224 6% 95%  
225 1.4% 89%  
226 3% 87%  
227 0.9% 84%  
228 2% 83%  
229 2% 81%  
230 2% 79%  
231 2% 77%  
232 6% 74%  
233 4% 68%  
234 0.2% 64%  
235 5% 64%  
236 7% 59%  
237 5% 52% Median
238 6% 48%  
239 7% 42%  
240 7% 35%  
241 3% 27%  
242 3% 25%  
243 2% 21%  
244 1.0% 20%  
245 1.2% 19%  
246 1.0% 17%  
247 0.6% 16%  
248 0.6% 16%  
249 1.1% 15%  
250 1.2% 14%  
251 0.7% 13%  
252 0.3% 12%  
253 0.2% 12%  
254 0.8% 12%  
255 2% 11%  
256 0.2% 9%  
257 0.8% 9%  
258 0.7% 8%  
259 0.2% 7%  
260 0.3% 7%  
261 2% 7%  
262 0.7% 5% Last Result
263 1.1% 5%  
264 0.6% 3%  
265 0.1% 3%  
266 0.1% 3%  
267 0.1% 3%  
268 0% 3%  
269 0.1% 3%  
270 0.1% 2%  
271 0.1% 2%  
272 0.2% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.1% 1.3%  
276 0.2% 1.2%  
277 0.2% 1.1%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0% 0.7%  
280 0% 0.7%  
281 0.1% 0.7%  
282 0.1% 0.6%  
283 0.2% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations