Opinion Poll by Ipsos MORI, 19–22 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 42.4% | 38.5% | 36.6–40.5% | 36.1–41.0% | 35.6–41.5% | 34.7–42.4% |
| Labour Party | 40.0% | 36.6% | 34.7–38.5% | 34.2–39.1% | 33.7–39.6% | 32.8–40.5% |
| Liberal Democrats | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.5–11.5% | 8.2–11.8% | 7.7–12.5% |
| UK Independence Party | 1.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Green Party | 1.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Scottish National Party | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 317 | 300 | 260–319 | 259–324 | 252–330 | 244–340 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 249 | 233–285 | 228–291 | 224–296 | 216–304 |
| Liberal Democrats | 12 | 25 | 19–28 | 17–30 | 16–31 | 13–34 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Green Party | 1 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Scottish National Party | 35 | 50 | 41–55 | 40–56 | 35–57 | 24–57 |
| Plaid Cymru | 4 | 5 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 2–10 |
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 255 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 259 | 4% | 95% | |
| 260 | 2% | 92% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 262 | 2% | 89% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 265 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 268 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 269 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 271 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 277 | 3% | 81% | |
| 278 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 279 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 280 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 284 | 2% | 74% | |
| 285 | 3% | 73% | |
| 286 | 5% | 69% | |
| 287 | 2% | 64% | |
| 288 | 3% | 63% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 290 | 2% | 59% | |
| 291 | 0.8% | 58% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 57% | |
| 293 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 55% | |
| 296 | 2% | 54% | |
| 297 | 1.3% | 52% | |
| 298 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 50% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 50% | Median |
| 301 | 2% | 50% | |
| 302 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 303 | 2% | 46% | |
| 304 | 5% | 45% | |
| 305 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 306 | 1.0% | 39% | |
| 307 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 308 | 3% | 37% | |
| 309 | 6% | 34% | |
| 310 | 5% | 28% | |
| 311 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 312 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 313 | 2% | 22% | |
| 314 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 315 | 4% | 19% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 318 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 319 | 3% | 13% | |
| 320 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 321 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 322 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 323 | 2% | 7% | |
| 324 | 2% | 5% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 326 | 0.6% | 4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 329 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 330 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 332 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 213 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 228 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 230 | 2% | 94% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 232 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 233 | 3% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 88% | |
| 235 | 2% | 87% | |
| 236 | 2% | 85% | |
| 237 | 3% | 83% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 239 | 2% | 80% | |
| 240 | 3% | 78% | |
| 241 | 10% | 75% | |
| 242 | 1.4% | 65% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 244 | 0.8% | 63% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 63% | |
| 246 | 6% | 62% | |
| 247 | 2% | 56% | |
| 248 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 249 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 250 | 0.8% | 50% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 49% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 48% | |
| 253 | 0.6% | 48% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 48% | |
| 255 | 1.3% | 47% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 46% | |
| 257 | 4% | 44% | |
| 258 | 2% | 40% | |
| 259 | 2% | 38% | |
| 260 | 3% | 37% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 34% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 33% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 264 | 5% | 32% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 266 | 0.6% | 27% | |
| 267 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 269 | 2% | 26% | |
| 270 | 3% | 24% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 272 | 2% | 21% | |
| 273 | 0% | 20% | |
| 274 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 278 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 279 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 280 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 282 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 283 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 285 | 2% | 12% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 287 | 4% | 10% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 292 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 297 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 16 | 2% | 98% | |
| 17 | 2% | 96% | |
| 18 | 3% | 95% | |
| 19 | 3% | 92% | |
| 20 | 2% | 89% | |
| 21 | 5% | 87% | |
| 22 | 3% | 82% | |
| 23 | 7% | 79% | |
| 24 | 4% | 72% | |
| 25 | 19% | 68% | Median |
| 26 | 11% | 49% | |
| 27 | 24% | 38% | |
| 28 | 7% | 15% | |
| 29 | 2% | 8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 6% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.4% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 75% | 87% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 30 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 34 | 0% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 40 | 2% | 95% | |
| 41 | 6% | 93% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 43 | 4% | 87% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 81% | |
| 47 | 7% | 81% | |
| 48 | 10% | 73% | |
| 49 | 3% | 64% | |
| 50 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 49% | |
| 52 | 8% | 34% | |
| 53 | 2% | 25% | |
| 54 | 12% | 24% | |
| 55 | 3% | 11% | |
| 56 | 5% | 8% | |
| 57 | 3% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 91% | Last Result |
| 5 | 66% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 22% | |
| 7 | 3% | 17% | |
| 8 | 12% | 14% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 356 | 354 | 83% | 316–375 | 313–378 | 308–382 | 299–394 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 313 | 329 | 55% | 310–369 | 305–370 | 299–376 | 290–384 |
| Conservative Party – Scottish National Party | 352 | 349 | 79% | 312–370 | 308–373 | 303–375 | 294–387 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party | 309 | 323 | 48% | 304–364 | 300–365 | 294–372 | 284–379 |
| Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats | 329 | 323 | 47% | 287–342 | 283–349 | 277–353 | 272–363 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru | 301 | 306 | 22% | 287–342 | 281–345 | 277–352 | 266–357 |
| Labour Party – Scottish National Party | 297 | 300 | 17% | 280–336 | 276–340 | 271–347 | 261–352 |
| Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru | 321 | 306 | 10% | 265–325 | 263–329 | 257–335 | 249–345 |
| Conservative Party | 317 | 300 | 4% | 260–319 | 259–324 | 252–330 | 244–340 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru | 278 | 280 | 3% | 259–317 | 257–321 | 254–326 | 242–335 |
| Labour Party – Liberal Democrats | 274 | 275 | 2% | 254–313 | 251–316 | 247–321 | 235–330 |
| Labour Party – Plaid Cymru | 266 | 255 | 0% | 240–291 | 233–296 | 229–300 | 222–308 |
| Labour Party | 262 | 249 | 0% | 233–285 | 228–291 | 224–296 | 216–304 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 286 | 0% | 100% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 291 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 292 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 298 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 301 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 302 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 307 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 308 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 309 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 310 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 312 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 313 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 314 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 315 | 4% | 95% | |
| 316 | 2% | 91% | |
| 317 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 318 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 319 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 320 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 321 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 322 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 323 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 324 | 2% | 86% | |
| 325 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 326 | 0.7% | 83% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 330 | 1.3% | 81% | |
| 331 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 334 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 336 | 3% | 78% | |
| 337 | 1.0% | 76% | |
| 338 | 2% | 75% | |
| 339 | 2% | 73% | |
| 340 | 2% | 71% | |
| 341 | 4% | 69% | |
| 342 | 0% | 65% | |
| 343 | 1.1% | 65% | |
| 344 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 345 | 4% | 63% | |
| 346 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 347 | 0.9% | 58% | |
| 348 | 1.1% | 57% | |
| 349 | 1.0% | 56% | |
| 350 | 2% | 55% | |
| 351 | 0.6% | 53% | |
| 352 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 353 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 354 | 2% | 51% | |
| 355 | 4% | 49% | Median |
| 356 | 5% | 46% | Last Result |
| 357 | 0.8% | 41% | |
| 358 | 0.5% | 40% | |
| 359 | 0.1% | 39% | |
| 360 | 0.3% | 39% | |
| 361 | 0.4% | 39% | |
| 362 | 1.5% | 38% | |
| 363 | 10% | 37% | |
| 364 | 5% | 27% | |
| 365 | 2% | 22% | |
| 366 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 367 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 368 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 369 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 370 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 371 | 3% | 17% | |
| 372 | 2% | 14% | |
| 373 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 374 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 375 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 376 | 3% | 10% | |
| 377 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 378 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 379 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 380 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 381 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 382 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 384 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 385 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 386 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 387 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 389 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 390 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 392 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 393 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 394 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 395 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 396 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 397 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 401 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 402 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 403 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 404 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 405 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 406 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 407 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 273 | 0% | 100% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 279 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 290 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 291 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 294 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 298 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 299 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 300 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 303 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 305 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 306 | 2% | 95% | |
| 307 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 308 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 309 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 310 | 4% | 91% | |
| 311 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 313 | 0.8% | 85% | Last Result |
| 314 | 4% | 85% | |
| 315 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 316 | 2% | 80% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 78% | |
| 318 | 0.3% | 78% | |
| 319 | 5% | 77% | |
| 320 | 7% | 72% | |
| 321 | 3% | 66% | |
| 322 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 323 | 0.5% | 62% | |
| 324 | 1.2% | 61% | |
| 325 | 5% | 60% | |
| 326 | 2% | 55% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.9% | 53% | |
| 328 | 2% | 52% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 50% | Median |
| 330 | 0.4% | 50% | |
| 331 | 0.6% | 50% | |
| 332 | 1.0% | 49% | |
| 333 | 2% | 48% | |
| 334 | 1.2% | 46% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 45% | |
| 336 | 1.1% | 45% | |
| 337 | 0.7% | 44% | |
| 338 | 0.7% | 43% | |
| 339 | 2% | 42% | |
| 340 | 0.6% | 41% | |
| 341 | 0.9% | 40% | |
| 342 | 4% | 39% | |
| 343 | 6% | 35% | |
| 344 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 345 | 2% | 28% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 347 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 348 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 349 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 350 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 351 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 352 | 3% | 22% | |
| 353 | 1.0% | 19% | |
| 354 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 355 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 356 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 357 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 358 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 359 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 360 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 361 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 362 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 364 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 365 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 366 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 367 | 2% | 12% | |
| 368 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 369 | 2% | 10% | |
| 370 | 3% | 8% | |
| 371 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 372 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 373 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 374 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 375 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 376 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 377 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 378 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 379 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 380 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 382 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 383 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 384 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 385 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 282 | 0% | 100% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 284 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 285 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 286 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 287 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 288 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 289 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 293 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 297 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 298 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 300 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 303 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 304 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 307 | 0% | 96% | |
| 308 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 309 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 310 | 4% | 95% | |
| 311 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 312 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 313 | 2% | 90% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 317 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 319 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 321 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 322 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 81% | |
| 324 | 0.6% | 81% | |
| 325 | 1.2% | 80% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 79% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 79% | |
| 328 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 329 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 330 | 2% | 78% | |
| 331 | 3% | 77% | |
| 332 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 333 | 0.4% | 73% | |
| 334 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 335 | 2% | 71% | |
| 336 | 4% | 69% | |
| 337 | 2% | 65% | |
| 338 | 1.1% | 62% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 61% | |
| 340 | 3% | 61% | |
| 341 | 1.1% | 58% | |
| 342 | 1.3% | 57% | |
| 343 | 0.8% | 56% | |
| 344 | 1.2% | 55% | |
| 345 | 0.8% | 54% | |
| 346 | 1.5% | 53% | |
| 347 | 0.9% | 52% | |
| 348 | 0.4% | 51% | |
| 349 | 2% | 50% | |
| 350 | 3% | 48% | Median |
| 351 | 5% | 45% | |
| 352 | 0.4% | 40% | Last Result |
| 353 | 0.5% | 40% | |
| 354 | 0.5% | 39% | |
| 355 | 1.0% | 39% | |
| 356 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 357 | 2% | 37% | |
| 358 | 9% | 36% | |
| 359 | 4% | 27% | |
| 360 | 3% | 23% | |
| 361 | 2% | 20% | |
| 362 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 364 | 2% | 17% | |
| 365 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 366 | 3% | 15% | |
| 367 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 368 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 369 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 370 | 2% | 10% | |
| 371 | 2% | 8% | |
| 372 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 373 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 374 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 375 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 376 | 0% | 2% | |
| 377 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 378 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 380 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 381 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 382 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 383 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 384 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 385 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 387 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 388 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 391 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 392 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 393 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 394 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 395 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 396 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 397 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 398 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 399 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 400 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 267 | 0% | 100% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 271 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 272 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 274 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 275 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 276 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 277 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 278 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 280 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 281 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 282 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 283 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 288 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 289 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 291 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 293 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 298 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 300 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 301 | 2% | 95% | |
| 302 | 2% | 93% | |
| 303 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 304 | 2% | 90% | |
| 305 | 3% | 89% | |
| 306 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 308 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 309 | 4% | 84% | Last Result |
| 310 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 311 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 312 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 313 | 0.2% | 77% | |
| 314 | 6% | 77% | |
| 315 | 6% | 71% | |
| 316 | 2% | 66% | |
| 317 | 1.4% | 63% | |
| 318 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 319 | 2% | 61% | |
| 320 | 5% | 59% | |
| 321 | 0.8% | 54% | |
| 322 | 0.3% | 53% | |
| 323 | 3% | 52% | |
| 324 | 0.8% | 50% | Median |
| 325 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 326 | 0.5% | 48% | Majority |
| 327 | 0% | 48% | |
| 328 | 2% | 48% | |
| 329 | 1.1% | 46% | |
| 330 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 331 | 2% | 45% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 333 | 1.0% | 43% | |
| 334 | 2% | 42% | |
| 335 | 2% | 40% | |
| 336 | 2% | 39% | |
| 337 | 4% | 37% | |
| 338 | 4% | 33% | |
| 339 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 340 | 2% | 28% | |
| 341 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 342 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 343 | 0.6% | 25% | |
| 344 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 345 | 3% | 24% | |
| 346 | 0.4% | 20% | |
| 347 | 2% | 20% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 18% | |
| 349 | 0.2% | 18% | |
| 350 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 351 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 352 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 353 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 354 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 355 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 356 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 357 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 358 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 359 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 360 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 361 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 362 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 363 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 364 | 4% | 11% | |
| 365 | 3% | 8% | |
| 366 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 367 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 368 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 369 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 370 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 371 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 372 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 373 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 374 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 375 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 376 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 377 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 378 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 379 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 380 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 381 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 382 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 383 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 384 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 385 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 386 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 387 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 388 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 389 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 390 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 261 | 0% | 100% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 263 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 264 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 266 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 268 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 269 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 273 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 276 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 281 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 283 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 284 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 285 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 286 | 2% | 94% | |
| 287 | 2% | 91% | |
| 288 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 289 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 290 | 2% | 88% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 292 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 294 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 295 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 296 | 0.3% | 84% | |
| 297 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 298 | 1.0% | 83% | |
| 299 | 2% | 82% | |
| 300 | 1.4% | 81% | |
| 301 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 302 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 303 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 304 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 305 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 306 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 307 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 308 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 309 | 0.5% | 74% | |
| 310 | 2% | 74% | |
| 311 | 2% | 72% | |
| 312 | 2% | 70% | |
| 313 | 9% | 68% | |
| 314 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 315 | 1.0% | 58% | |
| 316 | 0.3% | 57% | |
| 317 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 55% | |
| 319 | 1.0% | 55% | |
| 320 | 0.9% | 54% | |
| 321 | 1.3% | 53% | |
| 322 | 0.7% | 52% | |
| 323 | 2% | 51% | |
| 324 | 2% | 49% | |
| 325 | 0.5% | 47% | Median |
| 326 | 0.4% | 47% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 46% | |
| 328 | 2% | 44% | |
| 329 | 0.5% | 42% | Last Result |
| 330 | 0.9% | 41% | |
| 331 | 3% | 40% | |
| 332 | 0.2% | 37% | |
| 333 | 0.7% | 37% | |
| 334 | 5% | 36% | |
| 335 | 7% | 31% | |
| 336 | 3% | 24% | |
| 337 | 2% | 21% | |
| 338 | 2% | 19% | |
| 339 | 1.4% | 17% | |
| 340 | 5% | 16% | |
| 341 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 342 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 343 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 344 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 345 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 347 | 2% | 8% | |
| 348 | 2% | 7% | |
| 349 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 350 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 351 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 352 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 353 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 354 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 355 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 356 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 361 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 363 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 366 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 367 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 370 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 371 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 372 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 373 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 374 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 375 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 376 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 377 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 378 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 261 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 262 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 265 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 267 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 276 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 279 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 281 | 2% | 95% | |
| 282 | 2% | 93% | |
| 283 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 284 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 285 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 287 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 288 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 289 | 5% | 89% | |
| 290 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 291 | 2% | 83% | |
| 292 | 2% | 81% | |
| 293 | 3% | 79% | |
| 294 | 8% | 76% | |
| 295 | 5% | 69% | |
| 296 | 0.6% | 64% | |
| 297 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 298 | 3% | 63% | |
| 299 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 300 | 0.4% | 59% | |
| 301 | 2% | 58% | Last Result |
| 302 | 2% | 56% | |
| 303 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 304 | 0.8% | 53% | Median |
| 305 | 2% | 53% | |
| 306 | 2% | 51% | |
| 307 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 308 | 2% | 48% | |
| 309 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 310 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 311 | 0.9% | 45% | |
| 312 | 0.6% | 44% | |
| 313 | 0.6% | 44% | |
| 314 | 0.5% | 43% | |
| 315 | 2% | 43% | |
| 316 | 8% | 41% | |
| 317 | 3% | 33% | |
| 318 | 2% | 30% | |
| 319 | 2% | 28% | |
| 320 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 321 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 323 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 325 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 326 | 0.9% | 22% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 329 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 330 | 1.5% | 19% | |
| 331 | 1.0% | 18% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 333 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 334 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 335 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 336 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 337 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 338 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 339 | 2% | 14% | |
| 340 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 341 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 342 | 2% | 11% | |
| 343 | 3% | 9% | |
| 344 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 345 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 346 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 347 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 348 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 349 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 350 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 351 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 352 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 353 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 354 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 355 | 0.5% | 1.5% | |
| 356 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 357 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 358 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 362 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 364 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 365 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 366 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 367 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 368 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 369 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 252 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 253 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 254 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 255 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 261 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 263 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 266 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 267 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 268 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 271 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 272 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 275 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 276 | 2% | 95% | |
| 277 | 2% | 94% | |
| 278 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 282 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 283 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 284 | 6% | 88% | |
| 285 | 2% | 82% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 80% | |
| 287 | 1.5% | 80% | |
| 288 | 3% | 78% | |
| 289 | 6% | 76% | |
| 290 | 5% | 70% | |
| 291 | 2% | 65% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 293 | 3% | 63% | |
| 294 | 2% | 59% | |
| 295 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 296 | 2% | 57% | |
| 297 | 2% | 55% | Last Result |
| 298 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 299 | 1.0% | 52% | Median |
| 300 | 1.2% | 51% | |
| 301 | 1.4% | 50% | |
| 302 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 303 | 2% | 48% | |
| 304 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 305 | 0.8% | 45% | |
| 306 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 307 | 0.9% | 44% | |
| 308 | 1.4% | 43% | |
| 309 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 310 | 2% | 41% | |
| 311 | 6% | 39% | |
| 312 | 3% | 33% | |
| 313 | 2% | 30% | |
| 314 | 2% | 28% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 316 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 25% | |
| 318 | 1.2% | 24% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 320 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 321 | 1.1% | 22% | |
| 322 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 323 | 0.2% | 20% | |
| 324 | 3% | 20% | |
| 325 | 0.8% | 18% | |
| 326 | 0.3% | 17% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 328 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 329 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 330 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 331 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 332 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 333 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 334 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 335 | 0.6% | 13% | |
| 336 | 3% | 13% | |
| 337 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 338 | 2% | 9% | |
| 339 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 340 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 341 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 342 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 343 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 344 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 345 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 346 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 347 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 348 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 349 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 350 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 351 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 352 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 354 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 355 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 357 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 257 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 259 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 262 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 263 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 264 | 2% | 94% | |
| 265 | 4% | 92% | |
| 266 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 271 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 272 | 1.4% | 86% | |
| 273 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 277 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 279 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 280 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 82% | |
| 282 | 2% | 82% | |
| 283 | 0.5% | 80% | |
| 284 | 3% | 79% | |
| 285 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 286 | 0.5% | 76% | |
| 287 | 1.0% | 75% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 74% | |
| 289 | 1.5% | 74% | |
| 290 | 3% | 73% | |
| 291 | 3% | 69% | |
| 292 | 2% | 67% | |
| 293 | 4% | 65% | |
| 294 | 1.5% | 61% | |
| 295 | 2% | 60% | |
| 296 | 0.8% | 58% | |
| 297 | 0.3% | 57% | |
| 298 | 1.4% | 57% | |
| 299 | 0.9% | 55% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 55% | |
| 301 | 2% | 54% | |
| 302 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 303 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 305 | 1.1% | 51% | Median |
| 306 | 3% | 50% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 48% | |
| 308 | 0.8% | 47% | |
| 309 | 5% | 46% | |
| 310 | 1.2% | 41% | |
| 311 | 2% | 40% | |
| 312 | 1.3% | 38% | |
| 313 | 3% | 37% | |
| 314 | 5% | 34% | |
| 315 | 6% | 29% | |
| 316 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 317 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 318 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 319 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 320 | 4% | 21% | |
| 321 | 1.1% | 17% | Last Result |
| 322 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 323 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 324 | 2% | 14% | |
| 325 | 2% | 12% | |
| 326 | 0.9% | 10% | Majority |
| 327 | 2% | 9% | |
| 328 | 2% | 7% | |
| 329 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 330 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 331 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 332 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 334 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 335 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 337 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 339 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 340 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 341 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 344 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 345 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 348 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 351 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 358 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 359 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 360 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 361 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 362 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 363 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 364 | 0% | 0% |
Conservative Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 241 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 242 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 247 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 252 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 255 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 256 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 259 | 4% | 95% | |
| 260 | 2% | 92% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 262 | 2% | 89% | |
| 263 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 87% | |
| 265 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 267 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 268 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 269 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 84% | |
| 271 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 273 | 0.2% | 83% | |
| 274 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 82% | |
| 277 | 3% | 81% | |
| 278 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 279 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 280 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 282 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 284 | 2% | 74% | |
| 285 | 3% | 73% | |
| 286 | 5% | 69% | |
| 287 | 2% | 64% | |
| 288 | 3% | 63% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 290 | 2% | 59% | |
| 291 | 0.8% | 58% | |
| 292 | 0.5% | 57% | |
| 293 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 294 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 55% | |
| 296 | 2% | 54% | |
| 297 | 1.3% | 52% | |
| 298 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 299 | 0.2% | 50% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 50% | Median |
| 301 | 2% | 50% | |
| 302 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 303 | 2% | 46% | |
| 304 | 5% | 45% | |
| 305 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 306 | 1.0% | 39% | |
| 307 | 0.8% | 38% | |
| 308 | 3% | 37% | |
| 309 | 6% | 34% | |
| 310 | 5% | 28% | |
| 311 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 312 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 313 | 2% | 22% | |
| 314 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 315 | 4% | 19% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 317 | 0.6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 318 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 319 | 3% | 13% | |
| 320 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 321 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 322 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 323 | 2% | 7% | |
| 324 | 2% | 5% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 326 | 0.6% | 4% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 329 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 330 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 331 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 332 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 335 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 336 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 338 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 343 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 346 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 349 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 350 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 351 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 352 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 353 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 354 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 355 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 356 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 357 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 231 | 0% | 100% | |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 234 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 235 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 236 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 237 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 238 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 240 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 254 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 255 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 256 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 257 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 258 | 2% | 94% | |
| 259 | 2% | 92% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 262 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 263 | 3% | 88% | |
| 264 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 265 | 2% | 85% | |
| 266 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 268 | 2% | 82% | |
| 269 | 3% | 80% | |
| 270 | 4% | 77% | |
| 271 | 9% | 73% | |
| 272 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 274 | 0.9% | 62% | |
| 275 | 0.4% | 61% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 61% | |
| 277 | 0.8% | 60% | |
| 278 | 5% | 60% | Last Result |
| 279 | 3% | 55% | Median |
| 280 | 2% | 52% | |
| 281 | 0.3% | 49% | |
| 282 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 283 | 1.4% | 48% | |
| 284 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 285 | 1.0% | 46% | |
| 286 | 0.9% | 45% | |
| 287 | 1.2% | 44% | |
| 288 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 289 | 3% | 42% | |
| 290 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 38% | |
| 292 | 4% | 37% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 294 | 3% | 33% | |
| 295 | 2% | 30% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 297 | 1.2% | 27% | |
| 298 | 3% | 26% | |
| 299 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 300 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 301 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 304 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 305 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 306 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 307 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 308 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 309 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 310 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 311 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 312 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 313 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 314 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 315 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 316 | 2% | 12% | |
| 317 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 318 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 319 | 4% | 9% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 321 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 323 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 324 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 325 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 326 | 0.5% | 3% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 328 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 330 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 331 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 332 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 333 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 334 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 337 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 338 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 339 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 340 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 342 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 344 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 345 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 346 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 347 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 348 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 224 | 0% | 100% | |
| 225 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 244 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 248 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 249 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 250 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 251 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 252 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 253 | 3% | 94% | |
| 254 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 255 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 256 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 257 | 2% | 88% | |
| 258 | 3% | 86% | |
| 259 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 260 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 262 | 0.8% | 82% | |
| 263 | 2% | 81% | |
| 264 | 2% | 79% | |
| 265 | 5% | 77% | |
| 266 | 9% | 72% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 63% | |
| 268 | 1.0% | 62% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 61% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 61% | |
| 271 | 0.5% | 61% | |
| 272 | 1.1% | 60% | |
| 273 | 5% | 59% | |
| 274 | 4% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 275 | 2% | 51% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 48% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 48% | |
| 278 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 279 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 280 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 281 | 2% | 45% | |
| 282 | 1.0% | 43% | |
| 283 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 284 | 4% | 41% | |
| 285 | 2% | 37% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 35% | |
| 287 | 2% | 35% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 34% | |
| 289 | 3% | 33% | |
| 290 | 3% | 30% | |
| 291 | 2% | 27% | |
| 292 | 1.3% | 25% | |
| 293 | 3% | 24% | |
| 294 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 295 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 296 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 299 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 300 | 0.7% | 19% | |
| 301 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 302 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 303 | 0.8% | 18% | |
| 304 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 305 | 2% | 16% | |
| 306 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 307 | 0.2% | 14% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 309 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 310 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 311 | 1.5% | 12% | |
| 312 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 313 | 2% | 11% | |
| 314 | 3% | 9% | |
| 315 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 316 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 317 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 318 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 319 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 320 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 321 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 323 | 0% | 2% | |
| 324 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 325 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 326 | 0.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 327 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 328 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 329 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 330 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 331 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 332 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 333 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 334 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 335 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 336 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 337 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 338 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 339 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 340 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 341 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 342 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 343 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 209 | 0% | 100% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 213 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 215 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 216 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 218 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 226 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 229 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 230 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 232 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 233 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 235 | 2% | 94% | |
| 236 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 237 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 238 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 239 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 240 | 4% | 91% | |
| 241 | 3% | 86% | |
| 242 | 4% | 83% | |
| 243 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 245 | 3% | 78% | |
| 246 | 9% | 75% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 66% | |
| 248 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 249 | 1.4% | 65% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 251 | 6% | 62% | |
| 252 | 2% | 57% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 254 | 4% | 54% | Median |
| 255 | 0.8% | 51% | |
| 256 | 1.1% | 50% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 49% | |
| 258 | 0.5% | 49% | |
| 259 | 1.1% | 48% | |
| 260 | 1.0% | 47% | |
| 261 | 1.3% | 46% | |
| 262 | 3% | 45% | |
| 263 | 0.9% | 41% | |
| 264 | 1.3% | 41% | |
| 265 | 5% | 39% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 34% | Last Result |
| 267 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 269 | 5% | 32% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 273 | 0.5% | 27% | |
| 274 | 2% | 26% | |
| 275 | 2% | 24% | |
| 276 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 277 | 2% | 22% | |
| 278 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 279 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 282 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 283 | 1.5% | 18% | |
| 284 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 285 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 286 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 287 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 288 | 2% | 14% | |
| 289 | 2% | 12% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 292 | 3% | 10% | |
| 293 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 294 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 296 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 297 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 298 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 299 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 302 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 305 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 306 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 307 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 308 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 311 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 320 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0% |
Labour Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 0% | 100% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 213 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 216 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 228 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 230 | 2% | 94% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 232 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 233 | 3% | 91% | |
| 234 | 2% | 88% | |
| 235 | 2% | 87% | |
| 236 | 2% | 85% | |
| 237 | 3% | 83% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 239 | 2% | 80% | |
| 240 | 3% | 78% | |
| 241 | 10% | 75% | |
| 242 | 1.4% | 65% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 64% | |
| 244 | 0.8% | 63% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 63% | |
| 246 | 6% | 62% | |
| 247 | 2% | 56% | |
| 248 | 1.2% | 54% | |
| 249 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 250 | 0.8% | 50% | |
| 251 | 0.7% | 49% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 48% | |
| 253 | 0.6% | 48% | |
| 254 | 0.5% | 48% | |
| 255 | 1.3% | 47% | |
| 256 | 1.3% | 46% | |
| 257 | 4% | 44% | |
| 258 | 2% | 40% | |
| 259 | 2% | 38% | |
| 260 | 3% | 37% | |
| 261 | 1.0% | 34% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 33% | Last Result |
| 263 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 264 | 5% | 32% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 266 | 0.6% | 27% | |
| 267 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 268 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 269 | 2% | 26% | |
| 270 | 3% | 24% | |
| 271 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 272 | 2% | 21% | |
| 273 | 0% | 20% | |
| 274 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 19% | |
| 277 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 278 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 279 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 280 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 281 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 282 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 283 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 284 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 285 | 2% | 12% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 287 | 4% | 10% | |
| 288 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 289 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 290 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 292 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 295 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 297 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 298 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 300 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 301 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 304 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 305 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 312 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 313 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 314 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 315 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos MORI
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1044
- Simulations done: 524,288
- Error estimate: 1.04%