Opinion Poll by ICM Research, 26–28 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.3% 38.9–41.7% 38.5–42.1% 38.2–42.4% 37.5–43.1%
Labour Party 40.0% 38.3% 36.9–39.7% 36.5–40.1% 36.2–40.4% 35.5–41.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.1% 8.3–10.0% 8.1–10.2% 7.9–10.4% 7.6–10.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 309 284–330 277–332 273–335 263–342
Labour Party 262 259 239–284 236–294 235–299 227–310
Liberal Democrats 12 21 17–25 16–26 16–27 14–27
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 38 21–47 17–48 9–50 5–52
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–6 4–8 4–8 3–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.5% 99.1%  
269 0.3% 98.6%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.8% 97%  
276 0.7% 96%  
277 0.9% 95%  
278 0.5% 95%  
279 0.6% 94%  
280 0.4% 93%  
281 0.6% 93%  
282 1.1% 92%  
283 0.7% 91%  
284 1.0% 91%  
285 0.5% 90%  
286 2% 89%  
287 0.8% 87%  
288 1.0% 86%  
289 0.8% 85%  
290 2% 84%  
291 3% 83%  
292 1.1% 80%  
293 0.6% 79%  
294 1.4% 78%  
295 3% 77%  
296 1.3% 74%  
297 2% 73%  
298 0.6% 71%  
299 0.9% 70%  
300 3% 69%  
301 3% 67%  
302 1.2% 63%  
303 0.8% 62%  
304 0.7% 61%  
305 3% 61%  
306 2% 58%  
307 2% 55%  
308 2% 54%  
309 5% 51% Median
310 2% 46%  
311 0.8% 43%  
312 1.4% 43%  
313 2% 41%  
314 2% 39%  
315 3% 37%  
316 1.4% 34%  
317 3% 33% Last Result
318 1.4% 30%  
319 1.3% 29%  
320 1.0% 28%  
321 3% 27%  
322 1.4% 24%  
323 2% 23%  
324 2% 20%  
325 2% 18%  
326 2% 16% Majority
327 0.6% 14%  
328 1.5% 14%  
329 2% 12%  
330 1.4% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 3% 7%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.4%  
339 0.2% 1.2%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.2% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.1% 99.1%  
230 0% 99.0%  
231 0.3% 99.0%  
232 0.2% 98.7%  
233 0.6% 98.5%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 3% 97%  
237 0.8% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 2% 89%  
241 1.0% 87%  
242 2% 86%  
243 1.5% 84%  
244 1.1% 82%  
245 2% 81%  
246 3% 80%  
247 2% 77%  
248 1.4% 74%  
249 3% 73%  
250 2% 70%  
251 0.9% 68%  
252 0.7% 67%  
253 0.7% 66%  
254 2% 66%  
255 2% 64%  
256 4% 62%  
257 0.9% 58%  
258 5% 57%  
259 2% 52% Median
260 2% 50%  
261 5% 48%  
262 0.4% 42% Last Result
263 1.2% 42%  
264 2% 41%  
265 2% 39%  
266 0.9% 37%  
267 0.6% 36%  
268 1.1% 35%  
269 0.4% 34%  
270 5% 34%  
271 2% 29%  
272 2% 27%  
273 0.9% 25%  
274 2% 24%  
275 1.4% 23%  
276 2% 21%  
277 1.4% 19%  
278 1.1% 18%  
279 0.8% 17%  
280 0.8% 16%  
281 0.9% 15%  
282 1.0% 14%  
283 1.5% 13%  
284 2% 12%  
285 0.9% 10%  
286 0.4% 9%  
287 0.4% 9%  
288 0.8% 8%  
289 0.2% 7%  
290 0.9% 7%  
291 0.4% 6%  
292 0.5% 6%  
293 0.4% 5%  
294 0.3% 5%  
295 0.2% 5%  
296 0.6% 5%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0.9% 3%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.1% 2%  
304 0.1% 1.5%  
305 0.1% 1.4%  
306 0.4% 1.3%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100% Last Result
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.6% 99.8%  
15 1.0% 99.2%  
16 5% 98%  
17 9% 94%  
18 6% 84%  
19 10% 78%  
20 12% 68%  
21 13% 56% Median
22 2% 43%  
23 18% 41%  
24 2% 23%  
25 14% 21%  
26 4% 7%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.7%  
5 0.4% 99.5%  
6 0.2% 99.2%  
7 0.4% 99.0%  
8 0.4% 98.6%  
9 0.7% 98%  
10 0.1% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0.1% 97%  
13 0.8% 97%  
14 0.7% 96%  
15 0.1% 96%  
16 0.1% 96%  
17 0.6% 96%  
18 0.5% 95%  
19 2% 94%  
20 1.4% 93%  
21 2% 91%  
22 1.1% 89%  
23 4% 88%  
24 1.4% 84%  
25 0.5% 83%  
26 6% 82%  
27 3% 77%  
28 5% 74%  
29 1.4% 69%  
30 0.9% 67%  
31 0.8% 66%  
32 4% 66%  
33 1.0% 62%  
34 0.6% 61%  
35 3% 60% Last Result
36 3% 57%  
37 1.3% 54%  
38 5% 53% Median
39 5% 47%  
40 9% 42%  
41 7% 33%  
42 2% 26%  
43 0.7% 24%  
44 2% 23%  
45 5% 21%  
46 3% 16%  
47 5% 13%  
48 4% 8%  
49 0.8% 4%  
50 0.9% 3%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 1.5% 99.9%  
4 5% 98% Last Result
5 81% 94% Median
6 4% 13%  
7 2% 9%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 349 88% 323–371 314–374 309–377 298–385
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 344 82% 318–365 309–368 304–371 293–379
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 321 39% 300–346 298–353 295–357 288–367
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 330 60% 306–349 300–352 295–354 286–361
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 316 30% 295–341 293–348 290–352 282–362
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 314 27% 289–335 282–337 278–340 268–348
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 300 9% 281–324 278–330 276–335 269–344
Conservative Party 317 309 16% 284–330 277–332 273–335 263–342
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 295 5% 275–318 273–325 270–330 264–338
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 286 3% 265–312 262–321 259–326 251–337
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 281 2% 259–307 256–316 253–321 245–332
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 265 0% 244–289 242–299 240–304 232–314
Labour Party 262 259 0% 239–284 236–294 235–299 227–310

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.7%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.3% 99.3%  
301 0.1% 99.0%  
302 0.1% 98.9%  
303 0.1% 98.9%  
304 0.3% 98.8%  
305 0.3% 98%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.1% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.7% 98%  
310 0.2% 97%  
311 0.5% 97%  
312 0.2% 96%  
313 0.7% 96%  
314 0.6% 95%  
315 0.8% 95%  
316 0.2% 94%  
317 0.4% 94%  
318 0.2% 93%  
319 0.5% 93%  
320 0.4% 92%  
321 0.8% 92%  
322 0.9% 91%  
323 1.4% 90%  
324 0.4% 89%  
325 1.1% 89%  
326 1.0% 88% Majority
327 2% 87%  
328 0.6% 85%  
329 1.0% 84%  
330 1.5% 83%  
331 1.1% 82%  
332 1.1% 81%  
333 2% 79%  
334 1.4% 78%  
335 1.1% 76%  
336 0.9% 75%  
337 4% 74%  
338 0.9% 70%  
339 2% 69%  
340 1.3% 67%  
341 1.2% 66%  
342 2% 64%  
343 0.5% 62%  
344 2% 61%  
345 1.1% 60%  
346 4% 59%  
347 2% 55%  
348 2% 53%  
349 2% 51%  
350 2% 50%  
351 3% 47%  
352 1.5% 45% Median
353 2% 43%  
354 1.2% 41%  
355 4% 40%  
356 1.1% 36% Last Result
357 2% 35%  
358 1.4% 33%  
359 2% 32%  
360 1.1% 30%  
361 0.8% 29%  
362 1.3% 28%  
363 3% 27%  
364 3% 24%  
365 3% 21%  
366 1.3% 17%  
367 2% 16%  
368 2% 14%  
369 0.7% 12%  
370 1.2% 11%  
371 2% 10%  
372 0.7% 8%  
373 2% 7%  
374 1.3% 5%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.6% 3%  
377 0.4% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.1% 2%  
380 0.3% 1.4%  
381 0.3% 1.1%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0.2% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0.1% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.3% 99.3%  
296 0.1% 99.0%  
297 0% 98.9%  
298 0.1% 98.9%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.1% 98%  
303 0.3% 98%  
304 0.7% 98%  
305 0.2% 97%  
306 0.6% 97%  
307 0.3% 96%  
308 0.7% 96%  
309 0.6% 95%  
310 0.5% 95%  
311 0.3% 94%  
312 0.5% 94%  
313 0.3% 93%  
314 0.5% 93%  
315 0.5% 92%  
316 0.8% 92%  
317 0.7% 91%  
318 2% 90%  
319 0.5% 89%  
320 0.8% 88%  
321 1.2% 88%  
322 2% 86%  
323 0.8% 84%  
324 0.6% 84%  
325 1.4% 83%  
326 1.1% 82% Majority
327 1.1% 80%  
328 2% 79%  
329 2% 78%  
330 1.2% 76%  
331 0.9% 75%  
332 4% 74%  
333 0.5% 70%  
334 3% 69%  
335 1.5% 67%  
336 2% 65%  
337 2% 63%  
338 0.6% 61%  
339 0.7% 60%  
340 1.1% 59%  
341 3% 58%  
342 2% 55%  
343 3% 53%  
344 2% 50%  
345 3% 49%  
346 2% 46%  
347 2% 44% Median
348 2% 43%  
349 2% 41%  
350 4% 39%  
351 0.6% 35%  
352 2% 35% Last Result
353 1.3% 32%  
354 2% 31%  
355 1.1% 29%  
356 0.8% 28%  
357 2% 28%  
358 3% 26%  
359 2% 23%  
360 3% 21%  
361 1.3% 17%  
362 2% 16%  
363 2% 14%  
364 0.7% 11%  
365 1.4% 11%  
366 2% 9%  
367 0.6% 7%  
368 2% 7%  
369 1.3% 5%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.2% 1.4%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 0.9%  
377 0.2% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.6%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.2% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.4%  
290 0.3% 99.3%  
291 0.2% 99.0%  
292 0.3% 98.8%  
293 0.3% 98.6%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.9% 98%  
296 1.0% 97%  
297 0.4% 96%  
298 3% 96%  
299 2% 93%  
300 1.4% 91%  
301 2% 90%  
302 1.5% 88%  
303 0.6% 86%  
304 2% 86%  
305 2% 84%  
306 2% 82%  
307 2% 80%  
308 1.4% 77%  
309 3% 76%  
310 1.0% 73%  
311 1.3% 72%  
312 1.4% 71%  
313 3% 70% Last Result
314 1.4% 67%  
315 3% 66%  
316 2% 63%  
317 2% 61%  
318 1.4% 59%  
319 0.8% 57%  
320 2% 57%  
321 5% 54%  
322 2% 49%  
323 2% 46% Median
324 2% 45%  
325 3% 42%  
326 0.7% 39% Majority
327 0.8% 39%  
328 1.2% 38%  
329 3% 37%  
330 3% 33%  
331 0.9% 31%  
332 0.6% 30%  
333 2% 29%  
334 1.3% 27%  
335 3% 26%  
336 1.4% 23%  
337 0.6% 22%  
338 1.1% 21%  
339 3% 20%  
340 2% 17%  
341 0.8% 16%  
342 1.0% 15%  
343 0.8% 14%  
344 2% 13%  
345 0.5% 11%  
346 1.0% 10%  
347 0.7% 9%  
348 1.1% 9%  
349 0.6% 8%  
350 0.4% 7%  
351 0.6% 7%  
352 0.5% 6%  
353 0.9% 5%  
354 0.7% 5%  
355 0.8% 4%  
356 0.4% 3%  
357 0.4% 3%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.5% 1.4%  
363 0.1% 0.9%  
364 0.1% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.2% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.3%  
291 0.2% 99.1%  
292 0.2% 98.9%  
293 0.2% 98.7%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.3% 97%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.6% 96%  
299 0.5% 96%  
300 0.5% 95%  
301 1.0% 95%  
302 0.2% 94%  
303 1.3% 93%  
304 1.2% 92%  
305 0.5% 91%  
306 0.4% 90%  
307 0.8% 90%  
308 0.9% 89%  
309 2% 88%  
310 1.5% 86%  
311 0.9% 85%  
312 0.6% 84%  
313 0.8% 83%  
314 3% 82%  
315 2% 80%  
316 3% 78%  
317 2% 75%  
318 2% 73%  
319 1.3% 71%  
320 2% 70%  
321 0.4% 68%  
322 0.7% 68%  
323 3% 67%  
324 3% 64%  
325 2% 61%  
326 3% 60% Majority
327 0.6% 56%  
328 3% 56%  
329 3% 53% Last Result
330 3% 50% Median
331 2% 47%  
332 2% 45%  
333 3% 43%  
334 1.2% 40%  
335 1.4% 39%  
336 0.9% 37%  
337 0.9% 36%  
338 5% 35%  
339 1.3% 31%  
340 2% 29%  
341 2% 28%  
342 2% 26%  
343 2% 23%  
344 3% 21%  
345 1.1% 18%  
346 3% 17%  
347 1.2% 14%  
348 1.0% 13%  
349 2% 12%  
350 0.8% 10%  
351 3% 9%  
352 2% 6%  
353 1.0% 4%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.5% 2%  
356 0.4% 2%  
357 0.2% 2%  
358 0.4% 1.4%  
359 0.1% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.8%  
361 0.3% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.4% 99.2%  
286 0.1% 98.8%  
287 0.3% 98.7%  
288 0.5% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.9% 98%  
291 1.0% 97%  
292 0.6% 96%  
293 3% 95%  
294 2% 92%  
295 1.2% 91%  
296 2% 89%  
297 2% 88%  
298 0.6% 86%  
299 2% 85%  
300 2% 83%  
301 2% 81%  
302 3% 80%  
303 1.4% 77%  
304 3% 76%  
305 0.8% 73%  
306 1.4% 72%  
307 2% 71%  
308 2% 69%  
309 1.1% 67% Last Result
310 3% 66%  
311 2% 62%  
312 2% 60%  
313 2% 58%  
314 2% 57%  
315 1.3% 55%  
316 5% 54%  
317 2% 48%  
318 3% 46% Median
319 2% 43%  
320 2% 41%  
321 0.9% 39%  
322 0.8% 38%  
323 1.3% 38%  
324 3% 36%  
325 3% 33%  
326 1.2% 30% Majority
327 0.8% 29%  
328 1.3% 28%  
329 1.2% 27%  
330 3% 26%  
331 1.4% 23%  
332 0.7% 22%  
333 1.0% 21%  
334 3% 20%  
335 2% 17%  
336 0.5% 15%  
337 0.8% 15%  
338 0.6% 14%  
339 2% 13%  
340 0.6% 11%  
341 0.9% 10%  
342 0.7% 9%  
343 1.1% 9%  
344 0.7% 8%  
345 0.5% 7%  
346 0.5% 6%  
347 0.5% 6%  
348 1.1% 6%  
349 0.6% 4%  
350 0.8% 4%  
351 0.4% 3%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.2% 2%  
356 0.3% 2%  
357 0.5% 1.4%  
358 0.1% 0.9%  
359 0.1% 0.8%  
360 0.1% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.3%  
272 0.1% 99.2%  
273 0.5% 99.1%  
274 0.3% 98.6%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.4% 97%  
280 0.8% 97%  
281 0.6% 96%  
282 1.1% 96%  
283 0.5% 94%  
284 0.5% 94%  
285 0.5% 94%  
286 0.7% 93%  
287 1.1% 92%  
288 0.7% 91%  
289 0.9% 91%  
290 0.6% 90%  
291 2% 89%  
292 0.6% 87%  
293 0.9% 86%  
294 0.5% 85%  
295 2% 85%  
296 3% 83%  
297 1.0% 80%  
298 0.7% 79%  
299 1.4% 78%  
300 3% 77%  
301 1.2% 74%  
302 1.3% 73%  
303 0.8% 72%  
304 1.2% 71%  
305 3% 70%  
306 3% 67%  
307 1.3% 64%  
308 0.8% 62%  
309 0.9% 62%  
310 2% 61%  
311 2% 59%  
312 3% 57%  
313 2% 54%  
314 5% 52% Median
315 1.3% 46%  
316 2% 45%  
317 2% 43%  
318 2% 42%  
319 2% 40%  
320 3% 38%  
321 1.1% 34% Last Result
322 2% 33%  
323 2% 31%  
324 1.4% 29%  
325 0.8% 28%  
326 3% 27% Majority
327 1.4% 24%  
328 3% 23%  
329 2% 20%  
330 2% 19%  
331 2% 17%  
332 0.6% 15%  
333 2% 14%  
334 2% 12%  
335 1.2% 11%  
336 2% 9%  
337 3% 8%  
338 0.6% 5%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.9% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.3%  
345 0.4% 1.2%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0.1% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.3% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0.1% 99.2%  
272 0.4% 99.1%  
273 0.2% 98.6%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.4% 98%  
277 1.0% 97%  
278 2% 96%  
279 3% 94%  
280 0.8% 91%  
281 2% 90%  
282 1.0% 88%  
283 1.2% 87%  
284 3% 86%  
285 1.1% 83%  
286 3% 82%  
287 2% 79%  
288 2% 77%  
289 2% 74%  
290 2% 72%  
291 1.3% 71%  
292 5% 69%  
293 0.9% 65%  
294 0.9% 64%  
295 1.4% 63%  
296 1.2% 61%  
297 3% 60%  
298 2% 57%  
299 2% 55%  
300 3% 53%  
301 3% 50% Last Result
302 3% 47% Median
303 0.6% 44%  
304 3% 44%  
305 2% 40%  
306 3% 39%  
307 3% 36%  
308 0.7% 33%  
309 0.4% 32%  
310 2% 32%  
311 1.3% 30%  
312 2% 29%  
313 2% 27%  
314 3% 25%  
315 2% 22%  
316 3% 20%  
317 0.8% 18%  
318 0.6% 17%  
319 0.9% 16%  
320 1.5% 15%  
321 2% 14%  
322 0.9% 12%  
323 0.8% 11%  
324 0.4% 10%  
325 0.5% 10%  
326 1.2% 9% Majority
327 1.3% 8%  
328 0.2% 7%  
329 1.0% 6%  
330 0.5% 5%  
331 0.5% 5%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.3% 3%  
335 0.6% 3%  
336 0.7% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 1.3%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.1% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.2% 0.4%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.4%  
266 0.1% 99.3%  
267 0.1% 99.3%  
268 0.5% 99.1%  
269 0.3% 98.6%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.4% 98%  
274 0.4% 97%  
275 0.8% 97%  
276 0.7% 96%  
277 0.9% 95%  
278 0.5% 95%  
279 0.6% 94%  
280 0.4% 93%  
281 0.6% 93%  
282 1.1% 92%  
283 0.7% 91%  
284 1.0% 91%  
285 0.5% 90%  
286 2% 89%  
287 0.8% 87%  
288 1.0% 86%  
289 0.8% 85%  
290 2% 84%  
291 3% 83%  
292 1.1% 80%  
293 0.6% 79%  
294 1.4% 78%  
295 3% 77%  
296 1.3% 74%  
297 2% 73%  
298 0.6% 71%  
299 0.9% 70%  
300 3% 69%  
301 3% 67%  
302 1.2% 63%  
303 0.8% 62%  
304 0.7% 61%  
305 3% 61%  
306 2% 58%  
307 2% 55%  
308 2% 54%  
309 5% 51% Median
310 2% 46%  
311 0.8% 43%  
312 1.4% 43%  
313 2% 41%  
314 2% 39%  
315 3% 37%  
316 1.4% 34%  
317 3% 33% Last Result
318 1.4% 30%  
319 1.3% 29%  
320 1.0% 28%  
321 3% 27%  
322 1.4% 24%  
323 2% 23%  
324 2% 20%  
325 2% 18%  
326 2% 16% Majority
327 0.6% 14%  
328 1.5% 14%  
329 2% 12%  
330 1.4% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 3% 7%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.4%  
339 0.2% 1.2%  
340 0.3% 1.0%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.4% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.2%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.5% 99.0%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.5% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 1.0% 97%  
272 0.9% 96%  
273 2% 95%  
274 3% 94%  
275 0.8% 91%  
276 3% 90%  
277 0.8% 87%  
278 1.2% 87%  
279 3% 85%  
280 1.4% 83%  
281 3% 81%  
282 3% 78%  
283 2% 76%  
284 2% 74%  
285 2% 72%  
286 0.7% 70%  
287 5% 69%  
288 2% 65%  
289 0.9% 63%  
290 2% 62%  
291 0.5% 60%  
292 3% 60%  
293 3% 57%  
294 0.6% 53%  
295 3% 53%  
296 3% 50%  
297 4% 47% Last Result, Median
298 1.1% 43%  
299 2% 42%  
300 2% 40%  
301 3% 38%  
302 3% 35%  
303 0.5% 33%  
304 0.4% 32%  
305 2% 32%  
306 2% 30%  
307 2% 28%  
308 3% 26%  
309 2% 24%  
310 1.2% 21%  
311 3% 20%  
312 0.8% 18%  
313 0.8% 17%  
314 0.9% 16%  
315 2% 15%  
316 2% 13%  
317 1.1% 12%  
318 0.6% 11%  
319 0.3% 10%  
320 0.4% 10%  
321 1.3% 9%  
322 1.2% 8%  
323 0.5% 7%  
324 0.7% 6%  
325 0.6% 5%  
326 0.5% 5% Majority
327 0.5% 4%  
328 0.6% 4%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.5% 3%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.3% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.1% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.2% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.2% 99.7%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.1% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.2% 99.1%  
256 0.2% 98.8%  
257 0.5% 98.6%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 1.3% 97%  
262 2% 95%  
263 0.6% 93%  
264 2% 93%  
265 1.4% 91%  
266 0.7% 89%  
267 2% 89%  
268 2% 86%  
269 1.3% 84%  
270 3% 83%  
271 2% 79%  
272 3% 77%  
273 2% 74%  
274 0.8% 72%  
275 1.1% 72%  
276 2% 71%  
277 1.3% 69%  
278 2% 68% Last Result
279 0.6% 65%  
280 4% 65%  
281 2% 61%  
282 2% 59%  
283 2% 57%  
284 2% 56%  
285 3% 54% Median
286 2% 51%  
287 3% 50%  
288 2% 47%  
289 3% 45%  
290 1.1% 42%  
291 0.7% 41%  
292 0.7% 40%  
293 2% 39%  
294 2% 37%  
295 1.5% 35%  
296 3% 33%  
297 0.5% 31%  
298 4% 30%  
299 0.9% 26%  
300 1.2% 25%  
301 2% 24%  
302 2% 22%  
303 1.1% 21%  
304 1.1% 20%  
305 1.4% 18%  
306 0.6% 17%  
307 0.8% 16%  
308 2% 16%  
309 1.2% 14%  
310 0.7% 12%  
311 0.5% 12%  
312 2% 11%  
313 0.7% 10%  
314 0.8% 9%  
315 0.5% 8%  
316 0.5% 8%  
317 0.3% 7%  
318 0.5% 7%  
319 0.3% 6%  
320 0.5% 6%  
321 0.6% 5%  
322 0.7% 5%  
323 0.3% 4%  
324 0.6% 4%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0.7% 3% Majority
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.1% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.1% 1.2%  
333 0% 1.1%  
334 0.1% 1.1%  
335 0.3% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.1% 99.4%  
248 0.2% 99.3%  
249 0.3% 99.2%  
250 0.3% 98.9%  
251 0.1% 98.6%  
252 0.6% 98%  
253 0.4% 98%  
254 0.6% 97%  
255 0.7% 97%  
256 1.3% 96%  
257 2% 95%  
258 0.7% 93%  
259 2% 92%  
260 1.2% 90%  
261 0.7% 89%  
262 2% 88%  
263 2% 86%  
264 1.3% 84%  
265 3% 83%  
266 3% 79%  
267 3% 76%  
268 1.3% 73%  
269 0.8% 72%  
270 1.1% 71%  
271 2% 70%  
272 1.4% 68%  
273 2% 67%  
274 1.1% 65% Last Result
275 4% 64%  
276 1.2% 60%  
277 2% 59%  
278 1.5% 57%  
279 3% 55%  
280 2% 53% Median
281 2% 50%  
282 2% 49%  
283 2% 47%  
284 4% 45%  
285 1.1% 41%  
286 2% 40%  
287 0.5% 39%  
288 2% 38%  
289 1.2% 36%  
290 1.3% 34%  
291 2% 33%  
292 0.9% 31%  
293 4% 30%  
294 0.9% 26%  
295 1.1% 25%  
296 1.4% 24%  
297 2% 22%  
298 1.1% 21%  
299 1.1% 19%  
300 1.5% 18%  
301 1.0% 17%  
302 0.6% 16%  
303 2% 15%  
304 1.0% 13%  
305 1.1% 12%  
306 0.4% 11%  
307 1.4% 11%  
308 0.9% 10%  
309 0.8% 9%  
310 0.4% 8%  
311 0.5% 8%  
312 0.3% 7%  
313 0.4% 7%  
314 0.2% 6%  
315 0.8% 6%  
316 0.6% 5%  
317 0.7% 5%  
318 0.2% 4%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 0.2% 3%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.1% 2%  
324 0.2% 2%  
325 0.3% 2%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.2%  
328 0.1% 1.1%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0.3% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0% 0.5%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.3% 99.7%  
233 0.1% 99.4%  
234 0.1% 99.3%  
235 0.2% 99.2%  
236 0.3% 99.0%  
237 0.2% 98.7%  
238 0.4% 98.5%  
239 0.1% 98%  
240 0.7% 98%  
241 2% 97%  
242 1.4% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 3% 92%  
245 2% 89%  
246 1.2% 87%  
247 2% 86%  
248 2% 84%  
249 1.1% 83%  
250 1.1% 82%  
251 4% 81%  
252 2% 77%  
253 2% 75%  
254 3% 73%  
255 2% 70%  
256 0.3% 68%  
257 0.4% 68%  
258 0.8% 67%  
259 2% 66%  
260 2% 64%  
261 4% 62%  
262 1.1% 58%  
263 4% 57%  
264 2% 53% Median
265 2% 51%  
266 5% 49% Last Result
267 0.6% 43%  
268 1.4% 43%  
269 2% 42%  
270 2% 39%  
271 0.6% 37%  
272 0.7% 36%  
273 1.1% 35%  
274 0.6% 34%  
275 4% 34%  
276 3% 29%  
277 1.3% 27%  
278 0.9% 25%  
279 2% 24%  
280 1.5% 23%  
281 2% 21%  
282 1.3% 19%  
283 1.4% 18%  
284 0.8% 16%  
285 0.6% 16%  
286 0.5% 15%  
287 0.7% 14%  
288 2% 14%  
289 2% 12%  
290 0.8% 10%  
291 0.5% 9%  
292 0.4% 9%  
293 0.7% 8%  
294 0.2% 8%  
295 1.0% 7%  
296 0.5% 6%  
297 0.4% 6%  
298 0.4% 5%  
299 0.2% 5%  
300 0.2% 5%  
301 0.7% 5%  
302 0.6% 4%  
303 0.4% 3%  
304 0.8% 3%  
305 0.3% 2%  
306 0.1% 2%  
307 0.2% 2%  
308 0.1% 2%  
309 0.1% 1.5%  
310 0.1% 1.4%  
311 0.4% 1.3%  
312 0.1% 0.9%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0% 0.3%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.2% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.1% 99.1%  
230 0% 99.0%  
231 0.3% 99.0%  
232 0.2% 98.7%  
233 0.6% 98.5%  
234 0.3% 98%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 3% 97%  
237 0.8% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 2% 89%  
241 1.0% 87%  
242 2% 86%  
243 1.5% 84%  
244 1.1% 82%  
245 2% 81%  
246 3% 80%  
247 2% 77%  
248 1.4% 74%  
249 3% 73%  
250 2% 70%  
251 0.9% 68%  
252 0.7% 67%  
253 0.7% 66%  
254 2% 66%  
255 2% 64%  
256 4% 62%  
257 0.9% 58%  
258 5% 57%  
259 2% 52% Median
260 2% 50%  
261 5% 48%  
262 0.4% 42% Last Result
263 1.2% 42%  
264 2% 41%  
265 2% 39%  
266 0.9% 37%  
267 0.6% 36%  
268 1.1% 35%  
269 0.4% 34%  
270 5% 34%  
271 2% 29%  
272 2% 27%  
273 0.9% 25%  
274 2% 24%  
275 1.4% 23%  
276 2% 21%  
277 1.4% 19%  
278 1.1% 18%  
279 0.8% 17%  
280 0.8% 16%  
281 0.9% 15%  
282 1.0% 14%  
283 1.5% 13%  
284 2% 12%  
285 0.9% 10%  
286 0.4% 9%  
287 0.4% 9%  
288 0.8% 8%  
289 0.2% 7%  
290 0.9% 7%  
291 0.4% 6%  
292 0.5% 6%  
293 0.4% 5%  
294 0.3% 5%  
295 0.2% 5%  
296 0.6% 5%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.2% 3%  
299 0.9% 3%  
300 0.3% 2%  
301 0.1% 2%  
302 0.2% 2%  
303 0.1% 2%  
304 0.1% 1.5%  
305 0.1% 1.4%  
306 0.4% 1.3%  
307 0.1% 0.9%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.3%  
315 0% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations