Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 8–12 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.0% 38.2–41.9% 37.7–42.4% 37.2–42.9% 36.3–43.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.1–40.8% 36.6–41.4% 36.2–41.8% 35.3–42.7%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.8–9.5% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 298 266–322 262–328 258–332 248–342
Labour Party 262 259 240–293 237–295 231–299 223–310
Liberal Democrats 12 15 10–21 8–23 7–25 4–27
Scottish National Party 35 52 42–57 39–57 35–58 24–58
UK Independence Party 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–8 4–8 3–8 2–9

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.1% 99.4%  
251 0.4% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 98.9%  
253 0.1% 98.7%  
254 0.2% 98.6%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.2% 97%  
261 0.8% 96%  
262 0.6% 96%  
263 1.1% 95%  
264 1.1% 94%  
265 1.5% 93%  
266 2% 91%  
267 0.9% 90%  
268 2% 89%  
269 0.6% 86%  
270 1.3% 86%  
271 1.0% 84%  
272 1.1% 83%  
273 0.7% 82%  
274 1.3% 82%  
275 2% 80%  
276 0.8% 79%  
277 2% 78%  
278 2% 76%  
279 1.0% 74%  
280 1.5% 73%  
281 1.0% 72%  
282 0.9% 71%  
283 2% 70%  
284 1.1% 68%  
285 0.8% 67%  
286 0.8% 66%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 1.2% 64%  
289 1.1% 63%  
290 0.7% 62%  
291 1.0% 61%  
292 0.4% 60%  
293 2% 60%  
294 2% 58%  
295 1.0% 55%  
296 1.2% 54%  
297 0.6% 53%  
298 3% 52% Median
299 1.3% 49%  
300 1.1% 48%  
301 1.5% 47%  
302 1.1% 45%  
303 2% 44%  
304 1.1% 42%  
305 1.0% 41%  
306 1.4% 40%  
307 2% 39%  
308 0.8% 37%  
309 0.8% 36%  
310 3% 36%  
311 2% 33%  
312 1.4% 31%  
313 1.4% 30%  
314 5% 28%  
315 1.2% 23%  
316 1.2% 22%  
317 3% 21% Last Result
318 0.4% 18%  
319 1.0% 17%  
320 3% 16%  
321 2% 13%  
322 1.1% 11%  
323 2% 10%  
324 0.5% 8%  
325 1.4% 8%  
326 0.6% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 6%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.4% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.3%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.2% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.6%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.4%  
225 0.2% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 99.0%  
227 0.3% 98.7%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.1% 98%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0.2% 97%  
234 0.2% 97%  
235 0.5% 97%  
236 0.8% 96%  
237 2% 96%  
238 1.0% 94%  
239 2% 93%  
240 3% 91%  
241 0.8% 88%  
242 0.4% 87%  
243 1.2% 87%  
244 4% 85%  
245 2% 81%  
246 2% 80%  
247 7% 78%  
248 2% 71%  
249 2% 68%  
250 2% 66%  
251 1.0% 64%  
252 0.7% 63%  
253 0.2% 62%  
254 2% 62%  
255 3% 61%  
256 1.4% 57%  
257 2% 56%  
258 3% 54%  
259 2% 52% Median
260 2% 49%  
261 1.2% 47%  
262 3% 46% Last Result
263 1.3% 43%  
264 0.7% 41%  
265 1.0% 41%  
266 1.3% 40%  
267 0.3% 38%  
268 0.6% 38%  
269 0.3% 37%  
270 2% 37%  
271 0.9% 35%  
272 2% 34%  
273 0.5% 33%  
274 0.6% 32%  
275 0.5% 32%  
276 0.7% 31%  
277 1.0% 31%  
278 0.5% 30%  
279 0.7% 29%  
280 1.5% 28%  
281 1.1% 27%  
282 0.3% 26%  
283 2% 26%  
284 2% 24%  
285 1.1% 21%  
286 1.4% 20%  
287 0.4% 19%  
288 0.6% 18%  
289 1.0% 18%  
290 1.1% 17%  
291 1.0% 16%  
292 3% 15%  
293 3% 11%  
294 3% 9%  
295 1.1% 5%  
296 0.4% 4%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.4% 3%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.4%  
304 0.1% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 1.0%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.8%  
4 0.9% 99.7%  
5 1.0% 98.8%  
6 0.4% 98%  
7 1.3% 98%  
8 2% 96%  
9 4% 94%  
10 2% 90%  
11 7% 88%  
12 10% 81% Last Result
13 12% 71%  
14 9% 59%  
15 5% 50% Median
16 11% 45%  
17 6% 34%  
18 9% 28%  
19 4% 19%  
20 3% 16%  
21 3% 13%  
22 4% 10%  
23 1.4% 5%  
24 0.8% 4%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.5% 1.1%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.7%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.1% 99.6%  
25 0.1% 99.5%  
26 0.4% 99.4%  
27 0.1% 99.0%  
28 0.4% 99.0%  
29 0.2% 98.6%  
30 0.1% 98%  
31 0.1% 98%  
32 0.1% 98%  
33 0.2% 98%  
34 0.2% 98%  
35 0.4% 98% Last Result
36 0.2% 97%  
37 0.5% 97%  
38 0.9% 96%  
39 0.8% 96%  
40 2% 95%  
41 2% 93%  
42 1.4% 91%  
43 0.5% 90%  
44 1.0% 89%  
45 1.1% 88%  
46 3% 87%  
47 3% 84%  
48 5% 81%  
49 9% 76%  
50 2% 67%  
51 10% 65%  
52 7% 55% Median
53 11% 48%  
54 11% 37%  
55 10% 26%  
56 4% 17%  
57 10% 13%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Last Result, Median
1 18% 18%  
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 1.2% 99.8%  
3 2% 98.6%  
4 13% 96% Last Result
5 67% 83% Median
6 4% 16%  
7 2% 12%  
8 9% 10%  
9 0.6% 1.1%  
10 0.3% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 355 87% 324–379 318–383 312–387 303–394
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 349 80% 319–374 313–378 307–382 298–388
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 333 60% 309–365 303–368 299–373 289–382
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 327 53% 303–360 298–363 293–368 283–377
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 316 37% 296–350 291–354 285–356 274–363
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 311 32% 290–345 285–349 279–351 268–358
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 315 32% 281–335 277–340 275–346 268–357
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 303 13% 271–328 267–333 262–337 254–348
Conservative Party 317 298 6% 266–322 262–328 258–332 248–342
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 281 2% 257–312 253–318 249–324 242–333
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 276 0.9% 251–307 248–313 244–319 236–328
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 265 0% 245–298 243–300 236–304 229–315
Labour Party 262 259 0% 240–293 237–295 231–299 223–310

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.6%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.2% 99.3%  
306 0.2% 99.1%  
307 0% 98.9%  
308 0.3% 98.9%  
309 0.3% 98.6%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.4% 98%  
313 0.4% 97%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.4% 97%  
317 0.6% 96%  
318 1.1% 96%  
319 0.6% 95%  
320 0.4% 94%  
321 0.5% 94%  
322 1.2% 93%  
323 1.5% 92%  
324 2% 90%  
325 1.1% 88%  
326 2% 87% Majority
327 2% 85%  
328 1.2% 83%  
329 0.8% 82%  
330 1.0% 81%  
331 1.0% 80%  
332 2% 79%  
333 0.5% 78%  
334 1.4% 77%  
335 1.0% 76%  
336 3% 75%  
337 1.2% 72%  
338 0.6% 71%  
339 2% 70%  
340 1.0% 68%  
341 1.1% 67%  
342 0.8% 66%  
343 0.7% 65%  
344 0.8% 64%  
345 0.9% 63%  
346 1.1% 62%  
347 0.7% 61%  
348 1.2% 61%  
349 0.3% 59%  
350 2% 59%  
351 2% 57%  
352 1.0% 55%  
353 1.2% 54%  
354 2% 53%  
355 1.3% 51% Median
356 3% 49% Last Result
357 1.5% 46%  
358 3% 45%  
359 1.1% 42%  
360 0.9% 41%  
361 0.3% 40%  
362 2% 40%  
363 0.8% 38%  
364 2% 37%  
365 1.1% 35%  
366 0.6% 34%  
367 1.5% 33%  
368 4% 32%  
369 2% 27%  
370 0.6% 26%  
371 4% 25%  
372 3% 21%  
373 2% 17%  
374 0.7% 15%  
375 2% 15%  
376 0.7% 13%  
377 0.9% 12%  
378 0.4% 12%  
379 1.3% 11%  
380 1.5% 10%  
381 0.6% 8%  
382 2% 8%  
383 1.2% 6%  
384 0.3% 4%  
385 0.7% 4%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 1.0% 3%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.3% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.5%  
391 0.2% 1.2%  
392 0.2% 0.9%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.4%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.2% 99.2%  
302 0.1% 99.0%  
303 0.3% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.6%  
305 0.3% 98.5%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 0.4% 98%  
308 0.3% 97%  
309 0.2% 97%  
310 0.2% 97%  
311 0.5% 97%  
312 0.5% 96%  
313 1.1% 96%  
314 0.6% 95%  
315 0.6% 94%  
316 0.6% 93%  
317 1.0% 93%  
318 1.3% 92%  
319 2% 91%  
320 1.3% 88%  
321 2% 87%  
322 0.7% 85%  
323 2% 84%  
324 0.8% 82%  
325 1.1% 81%  
326 0.9% 80% Majority
327 2% 79%  
328 0.5% 78%  
329 2% 77%  
330 1.0% 75%  
331 2% 74%  
332 1.5% 72%  
333 1.0% 71%  
334 2% 70%  
335 0.8% 67%  
336 0.6% 67%  
337 1.3% 66%  
338 0.9% 65%  
339 0.3% 64%  
340 2% 64%  
341 0.9% 62%  
342 0.5% 61%  
343 2% 61%  
344 0.3% 59%  
345 3% 59%  
346 1.4% 56%  
347 2% 55%  
348 2% 53%  
349 2% 51%  
350 0.9% 50% Median
351 1.4% 49%  
352 2% 47% Last Result
353 3% 45%  
354 1.1% 42%  
355 1.1% 41%  
356 0.5% 40%  
357 2% 39%  
358 1.0% 37%  
359 2% 36%  
360 1.5% 35%  
361 0.9% 33%  
362 0.4% 32%  
363 5% 32%  
364 2% 27%  
365 0.7% 25%  
366 4% 24%  
367 3% 20%  
368 2% 17%  
369 0.5% 15%  
370 1.4% 14%  
371 1.0% 13%  
372 0.3% 12%  
373 0.8% 12%  
374 2% 11%  
375 2% 9%  
376 0.4% 7%  
377 1.4% 7%  
378 2% 6%  
379 0.4% 4%  
380 0.7% 4%  
381 0.4% 3%  
382 0.8% 3%  
383 0.4% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.2% 1.2%  
386 0.2% 1.0%  
387 0.2% 0.8%  
388 0.2% 0.7%  
389 0.1% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0.1% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.2% 99.1%  
294 0.1% 98.9%  
295 0.1% 98.8%  
296 0.2% 98.7%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.3% 97%  
301 1.1% 97%  
302 0.6% 96%  
303 0.4% 95%  
304 0.5% 95%  
305 0.8% 94%  
306 1.3% 93%  
307 0.7% 92%  
308 1.4% 92%  
309 1.3% 90%  
310 2% 89%  
311 3% 87%  
312 0.8% 84%  
313 0.5% 83% Last Result
314 3% 82%  
315 2% 79%  
316 0.3% 77%  
317 5% 77%  
318 1.4% 72%  
319 2% 70%  
320 2% 68%  
321 2% 67%  
322 1.0% 64%  
323 1.0% 63%  
324 1.3% 62%  
325 1.4% 61%  
326 1.0% 60% Majority
327 1.4% 59%  
328 2% 57%  
329 2% 56%  
330 1.3% 54%  
331 0.9% 53% Median
332 2% 52%  
333 3% 50%  
334 0.7% 47%  
335 1.0% 47%  
336 1.4% 46%  
337 2% 44%  
338 2% 42%  
339 0.3% 40%  
340 1.2% 40%  
341 0.8% 39%  
342 0.8% 38%  
343 2% 37%  
344 1.1% 36%  
345 0.8% 35%  
346 1.2% 34%  
347 0.7% 33%  
348 2% 32%  
349 1.2% 30%  
350 0.9% 29%  
351 1.3% 28%  
352 0.9% 27%  
353 2% 26%  
354 1.2% 23%  
355 1.0% 22%  
356 2% 21%  
357 1.2% 19%  
358 0.6% 18%  
359 1.2% 18%  
360 1.0% 16%  
361 1.2% 15%  
362 0.8% 14%  
363 3% 13%  
364 0.6% 11%  
365 2% 10%  
366 1.5% 9%  
367 1.1% 7%  
368 1.1% 6%  
369 0.6% 5%  
370 0.7% 4%  
371 0.5% 4%  
372 0.5% 3%  
373 0.5% 3%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.1% 1.3%  
379 0.2% 1.3%  
380 0.3% 1.1%  
381 0.1% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.3%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.1% 99.0%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.2% 98.7%  
291 0.2% 98.5%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 0.4% 97%  
295 0.4% 97%  
296 1.1% 97%  
297 0.4% 96%  
298 0.5% 95%  
299 0.6% 95%  
300 0.6% 94%  
301 2% 93%  
302 1.3% 92%  
303 1.0% 90%  
304 2% 89%  
305 1.2% 88%  
306 3% 87%  
307 1.1% 84%  
308 2% 83%  
309 3% 81% Last Result
310 2% 79%  
311 1.0% 77%  
312 4% 76%  
313 2% 72%  
314 1.2% 70%  
315 2% 69%  
316 3% 67%  
317 0.5% 64%  
318 0.9% 63%  
319 1.3% 62%  
320 2% 61%  
321 1.4% 59%  
322 1.3% 58%  
323 1.2% 57%  
324 1.3% 55%  
325 1.5% 54%  
326 1.0% 53% Median, Majority
327 2% 52%  
328 3% 50%  
329 2% 47%  
330 0.7% 45%  
331 2% 44%  
332 1.0% 43%  
333 2% 42%  
334 0.3% 40%  
335 0.6% 40%  
336 1.0% 39%  
337 1.3% 38%  
338 0.9% 37%  
339 2% 36%  
340 0.4% 34%  
341 1.3% 34%  
342 0.6% 33%  
343 2% 32%  
344 1.4% 30%  
345 0.9% 28%  
346 1.3% 28%  
347 0.9% 26%  
348 2% 25%  
349 0.8% 23%  
350 1.4% 22%  
351 2% 21%  
352 1.0% 19%  
353 0.8% 18%  
354 1.3% 17%  
355 0.9% 16%  
356 0.6% 15%  
357 1.2% 15%  
358 2% 13%  
359 0.9% 11%  
360 2% 10%  
361 2% 9%  
362 0.8% 7%  
363 1.1% 6%  
364 0.7% 5%  
365 0.7% 4%  
366 0.5% 4%  
367 0.5% 3%  
368 0.2% 3%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.2% 2%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.1% 1.3%  
374 0.2% 1.3%  
375 0.3% 1.1%  
376 0.2% 0.8%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0.1% 0.3%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0.1% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.8%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.3%  
277 0.2% 99.3%  
278 0.1% 99.1%  
279 0.1% 99.0%  
280 0.1% 98.9%  
281 0.2% 98.8%  
282 0.4% 98.6%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.4% 98%  
286 0.2% 97%  
287 0.9% 97%  
288 0.5% 96%  
289 0.2% 96%  
290 0.2% 95%  
291 0.7% 95%  
292 1.4% 95%  
293 1.1% 93%  
294 0.4% 92%  
295 1.3% 92%  
296 0.6% 90%  
297 3% 90%  
298 3% 87%  
299 2% 84%  
300 2% 83%  
301 6% 81% Last Result
302 2% 75%  
303 1.2% 73%  
304 2% 72%  
305 3% 69%  
306 2% 67%  
307 2% 65%  
308 1.3% 63%  
309 2% 61%  
310 1.5% 60%  
311 3% 58%  
312 0.6% 56%  
313 0.8% 55%  
314 2% 54%  
315 1.0% 52%  
316 2% 51% Median
317 0.9% 49%  
318 1.3% 48%  
319 1.2% 46%  
320 3% 45%  
321 2% 42%  
322 0.8% 41%  
323 0.6% 40%  
324 0.9% 39%  
325 0.9% 38%  
326 2% 37% Majority
327 2% 35%  
328 0.3% 33%  
329 0.9% 33%  
330 0.4% 32%  
331 1.5% 32%  
332 0.9% 30%  
333 0.5% 29%  
334 0.8% 29%  
335 0.7% 28%  
336 0.5% 27%  
337 1.0% 27%  
338 0.6% 26%  
339 2% 25%  
340 0.8% 24%  
341 2% 23%  
342 0.9% 21%  
343 1.1% 20%  
344 1.3% 19%  
345 2% 18%  
346 1.4% 16%  
347 0.4% 15%  
348 2% 14%  
349 2% 13%  
350 2% 11%  
351 1.4% 9%  
352 0.8% 8%  
353 2% 7%  
354 1.0% 5%  
355 1.4% 4%  
356 0.4% 3%  
357 0.8% 2%  
358 0.1% 2%  
359 0.2% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 1.2%  
361 0.2% 1.0%  
362 0% 0.8%  
363 0.2% 0.7%  
364 0% 0.5%  
365 0% 0.4%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0.1% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.3%  
272 0.2% 99.2%  
273 0.1% 99.0%  
274 0.1% 98.9%  
275 0.1% 98.8%  
276 0.2% 98.6%  
277 0.4% 98%  
278 0.4% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 97%  
281 0.3% 97%  
282 0.9% 97%  
283 0.7% 96%  
284 0.2% 95%  
285 0.5% 95%  
286 0.4% 95%  
287 1.4% 94%  
288 0.9% 93%  
289 0.7% 92%  
290 2% 91%  
291 0.5% 89%  
292 3% 89%  
293 2% 86%  
294 2% 84%  
295 1.2% 82%  
296 4% 81%  
297 4% 76% Last Result
298 1.4% 72%  
299 2% 71%  
300 3% 69%  
301 2% 66%  
302 2% 64%  
303 2% 63%  
304 2% 61%  
305 2% 59%  
306 1.5% 58%  
307 2% 56%  
308 0.8% 55%  
309 3% 54%  
310 1.0% 51%  
311 2% 50% Median
312 0.8% 48%  
313 2% 47%  
314 1.1% 45%  
315 3% 44%  
316 0.5% 41%  
317 0.8% 40%  
318 0.9% 40%  
319 0.9% 39%  
320 0.8% 38%  
321 2% 37%  
322 2% 36%  
323 0.6% 34%  
324 0.9% 33%  
325 0.4% 32%  
326 1.3% 32% Majority
327 1.1% 30%  
328 0.5% 29%  
329 0.4% 29%  
330 0.9% 28%  
331 0.4% 27%  
332 1.0% 27%  
333 0.8% 26%  
334 1.4% 25%  
335 0.9% 24%  
336 2% 23%  
337 0.9% 21%  
338 1.0% 20%  
339 1.5% 19%  
340 1.4% 18%  
341 1.5% 16%  
342 0.6% 15%  
343 1.4% 14%  
344 1.2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 1.3% 9%  
347 0.5% 8%  
348 2% 7%  
349 1.3% 5%  
350 1.2% 4%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.9% 2%  
353 0.2% 2%  
354 0.2% 1.4%  
355 0.2% 1.2%  
356 0.1% 1.0%  
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0.2% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.5%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0% 99.6%  
266 0% 99.6%  
267 0% 99.6%  
268 0.2% 99.5%  
269 0% 99.3%  
270 0.2% 99.2%  
271 0.2% 99.0%  
272 0.2% 98.8%  
273 0.1% 98.6%  
274 0.8% 98%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 1.5% 97%  
277 0.9% 96%  
278 2% 95%  
279 1.1% 93%  
280 1.0% 92%  
281 2% 91%  
282 2% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 0.4% 85%  
285 1.4% 85%  
286 1.3% 84%  
287 1.4% 82%  
288 1.1% 81%  
289 1.1% 80%  
290 2% 79%  
291 0.9% 77%  
292 2% 76%  
293 0.6% 74%  
294 0.5% 74%  
295 0.8% 73%  
296 0.9% 72%  
297 0.4% 71%  
298 0.9% 71%  
299 0.8% 70%  
300 1.1% 69%  
301 0.4% 68%  
302 1.0% 68%  
303 0.4% 67%  
304 2% 66%  
305 2% 64%  
306 0.9% 62%  
307 0.9% 62%  
308 0.7% 61%  
309 0.7% 60%  
310 2% 59%  
311 3% 57%  
312 1.3% 55%  
313 1.3% 53% Median
314 1.0% 52%  
315 2% 51%  
316 2% 49%  
317 0.9% 47%  
318 0.9% 46%  
319 1.1% 45%  
320 2% 44%  
321 1.5% 41%  
322 1.3% 40%  
323 1.4% 39%  
324 3% 37%  
325 2% 34%  
326 3% 32% Majority
327 1.5% 30%  
328 1.3% 28%  
329 2% 27% Last Result
330 6% 25%  
331 1.5% 19%  
332 2% 17%  
333 3% 16%  
334 3% 13%  
335 0.6% 10%  
336 1.3% 10%  
337 0.5% 8%  
338 1.4% 8%  
339 1.0% 6%  
340 0.6% 5%  
341 0.2% 5%  
342 0.3% 5%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 0.7% 4%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.2% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.1% 1.2%  
352 0.1% 1.1%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.1% 0.7%  
356 0.1% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0% 0.5%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.4%  
256 0.3% 99.2%  
257 0.2% 98.9%  
258 0.1% 98.7%  
259 0.2% 98.6%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.4% 98%  
263 0.2% 97%  
264 0.7% 97%  
265 0.2% 97%  
266 0.7% 96%  
267 0.8% 96%  
268 1.0% 95%  
269 1.0% 94%  
270 2% 93%  
271 2% 91%  
272 1.2% 90%  
273 2% 88%  
274 1.3% 86%  
275 0.5% 85%  
276 1.0% 85%  
277 1.2% 84%  
278 0.8% 82%  
279 1.0% 82%  
280 2% 81%  
281 1.2% 79%  
282 1.2% 78%  
283 2% 76%  
284 1.0% 75%  
285 1.3% 74%  
286 1.2% 72%  
287 1.2% 71%  
288 2% 70%  
289 0.9% 68%  
290 0.7% 67%  
291 1.0% 66%  
292 1.1% 65%  
293 0.9% 64%  
294 2% 63%  
295 0.6% 61%  
296 0.5% 61%  
297 0.4% 60%  
298 2% 60%  
299 2% 58%  
300 1.1% 56%  
301 1.0% 55%  
302 2% 54%  
303 4% 53% Median
304 1.2% 49%  
305 2% 48%  
306 0.9% 47%  
307 1.3% 46%  
308 2% 44%  
309 0.8% 43%  
310 1.4% 42%  
311 2% 41%  
312 2% 39%  
313 0.6% 37%  
314 0.5% 37%  
315 3% 36%  
316 2% 33%  
317 0.6% 30%  
318 2% 30%  
319 4% 28%  
320 2% 24%  
321 1.0% 22% Last Result
322 2% 21%  
323 1.4% 19%  
324 1.2% 17%  
325 3% 16%  
326 1.2% 13% Majority
327 2% 12%  
328 1.1% 10%  
329 1.2% 9%  
330 2% 8%  
331 0.5% 6%  
332 0.7% 6%  
333 0.5% 5%  
334 0.6% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.5% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.2% 1.5%  
342 0.2% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.1%  
344 0.2% 1.0%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0.1% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.8%  
246 0% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.7%  
248 0.1% 99.6%  
249 0.1% 99.5%  
250 0.1% 99.4%  
251 0.4% 99.3%  
252 0.2% 98.9%  
253 0.1% 98.7%  
254 0.2% 98.6%  
255 0.2% 98%  
256 0.2% 98%  
257 0.2% 98%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.7% 97%  
260 0.2% 97%  
261 0.8% 96%  
262 0.6% 96%  
263 1.1% 95%  
264 1.1% 94%  
265 1.5% 93%  
266 2% 91%  
267 0.9% 90%  
268 2% 89%  
269 0.6% 86%  
270 1.3% 86%  
271 1.0% 84%  
272 1.1% 83%  
273 0.7% 82%  
274 1.3% 82%  
275 2% 80%  
276 0.8% 79%  
277 2% 78%  
278 2% 76%  
279 1.0% 74%  
280 1.5% 73%  
281 1.0% 72%  
282 0.9% 71%  
283 2% 70%  
284 1.1% 68%  
285 0.8% 67%  
286 0.8% 66%  
287 1.3% 65%  
288 1.2% 64%  
289 1.1% 63%  
290 0.7% 62%  
291 1.0% 61%  
292 0.4% 60%  
293 2% 60%  
294 2% 58%  
295 1.0% 55%  
296 1.2% 54%  
297 0.6% 53%  
298 3% 52% Median
299 1.3% 49%  
300 1.1% 48%  
301 1.5% 47%  
302 1.1% 45%  
303 2% 44%  
304 1.1% 42%  
305 1.0% 41%  
306 1.4% 40%  
307 2% 39%  
308 0.8% 37%  
309 0.8% 36%  
310 3% 36%  
311 2% 33%  
312 1.4% 31%  
313 1.4% 30%  
314 5% 28%  
315 1.2% 23%  
316 1.2% 22%  
317 3% 21% Last Result
318 0.4% 18%  
319 1.0% 17%  
320 3% 16%  
321 2% 13%  
322 1.1% 11%  
323 2% 10%  
324 0.5% 8%  
325 1.4% 8%  
326 0.6% 6% Majority
327 0.5% 6%  
328 0.5% 5%  
329 0.7% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.3% 3%  
332 0.4% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.1% 1.3%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.9%  
340 0.1% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0% 99.7%  
241 0.1% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.1% 99.5%  
244 0.2% 99.3%  
245 0.2% 99.2%  
246 0.2% 99.0%  
247 0.3% 98.7%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.9% 98%  
250 0.5% 97%  
251 0.5% 97%  
252 0.4% 96%  
253 2% 96%  
254 2% 94%  
255 0.4% 93%  
256 2% 92%  
257 1.3% 90%  
258 0.7% 89%  
259 0.4% 88%  
260 2% 88%  
261 0.5% 86%  
262 0.5% 85%  
263 2% 85%  
264 4% 83%  
265 4% 79%  
266 1.3% 76%  
267 1.2% 74%  
268 5% 73%  
269 0.4% 68%  
270 1.1% 67%  
271 1.1% 66%  
272 2% 65%  
273 1.1% 64%  
274 2% 63%  
275 0.7% 61%  
276 1.0% 60%  
277 1.0% 59%  
278 4% 58% Last Result
279 2% 54% Median
280 1.3% 52%  
281 2% 51%  
282 0.8% 49%  
283 2% 49%  
284 1.4% 46%  
285 2% 45%  
286 2% 43%  
287 0.4% 41%  
288 2% 41%  
289 0.4% 39%  
290 2% 39%  
291 0.9% 37%  
292 0.5% 36%  
293 0.7% 36%  
294 1.2% 35%  
295 0.6% 34%  
296 1.2% 33%  
297 2% 32%  
298 0.9% 30%  
299 2% 29%  
300 2% 27%  
301 0.9% 25%  
302 2% 24%  
303 0.8% 23%  
304 2% 22%  
305 0.6% 20%  
306 1.2% 20%  
307 0.8% 19%  
308 2% 18%  
309 0.7% 15%  
310 2% 15%  
311 1.3% 13%  
312 2% 12%  
313 1.4% 9%  
314 1.1% 8%  
315 0.7% 7%  
316 0.3% 6%  
317 0.6% 6%  
318 1.0% 5%  
319 0.5% 4%  
320 0.5% 4%  
321 0.2% 3%  
322 0.2% 3%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.2% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 1.5%  
328 0.2% 1.4%  
329 0.1% 1.1%  
330 0.2% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.6%  
334 0.1% 0.4%  
335 0% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.2% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.0%  
241 0.3% 98.8%  
242 0.3% 98.5%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 1.0% 98%  
245 0.4% 97%  
246 0.7% 97%  
247 0.3% 96%  
248 1.3% 96%  
249 2% 94%  
250 0.8% 92%  
251 2% 91%  
252 0.9% 89%  
253 0.3% 89%  
254 1.0% 88%  
255 2% 87%  
256 0.7% 86%  
257 0.5% 85%  
258 2% 85%  
259 4% 82%  
260 4% 79%  
261 1.0% 75%  
262 2% 74%  
263 4% 72%  
264 2% 68%  
265 0.8% 67%  
266 0.9% 66%  
267 2% 65%  
268 0.9% 63%  
269 2% 62%  
270 0.5% 60%  
271 0.9% 60%  
272 0.9% 59%  
273 3% 58%  
274 2% 55% Last Result, Median
275 3% 53%  
276 2% 50%  
277 1.4% 48%  
278 2% 47%  
279 0.6% 45%  
280 2% 45%  
281 2% 43%  
282 0.3% 41%  
283 1.3% 40%  
284 0.5% 39%  
285 1.3% 39%  
286 1.3% 37%  
287 0.5% 36%  
288 0.6% 36%  
289 0.7% 35%  
290 1.2% 34%  
291 1.5% 33%  
292 2% 32%  
293 0.6% 30%  
294 2% 29%  
295 3% 27%  
296 0.9% 25%  
297 1.4% 24%  
298 1.0% 23%  
299 1.3% 22%  
300 0.8% 20%  
301 1.0% 20%  
302 0.9% 19%  
303 1.0% 18%  
304 2% 17%  
305 2% 15%  
306 1.2% 13%  
307 2% 12%  
308 2% 10%  
309 1.0% 8%  
310 0.7% 7%  
311 0.2% 6%  
312 0.5% 6%  
313 1.2% 5%  
314 0.5% 4%  
315 0.4% 4%  
316 0.2% 3%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.4% 3%  
319 0.4% 3%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.1% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.3%  
324 0.1% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 1.1%  
326 0.2% 0.9% Majority
327 0% 0.6%  
328 0.1% 0.6%  
329 0% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.2% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.7%  
226 0% 99.7%  
227 0% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.3%  
231 0.3% 99.1%  
232 0.3% 98.8%  
233 0.2% 98.6%  
234 0.6% 98%  
235 0.1% 98%  
236 0.3% 98%  
237 0.1% 97%  
238 0.1% 97%  
239 0.1% 97%  
240 0.4% 97%  
241 0.4% 97%  
242 1.1% 96%  
243 1.1% 95%  
244 2% 94%  
245 4% 92%  
246 0.5% 88%  
247 0.3% 87%  
248 1.0% 87%  
249 4% 86%  
250 1.0% 82%  
251 1.1% 81%  
252 9% 80%  
253 2% 71%  
254 3% 69%  
255 2% 66%  
256 0.5% 64%  
257 0.1% 63%  
258 0.2% 63%  
259 2% 63%  
260 5% 61%  
261 1.0% 56%  
262 0.8% 55%  
263 3% 55%  
264 0.9% 52% Median
265 3% 51%  
266 1.3% 48% Last Result
267 4% 47%  
268 0.8% 43%  
269 1.2% 42%  
270 1.4% 41%  
271 0.9% 40%  
272 0.3% 39%  
273 0.5% 38%  
274 0.3% 38%  
275 2% 37%  
276 0.8% 35%  
277 1.5% 34%  
278 0.5% 33%  
279 0.6% 32%  
280 0.3% 32%  
281 1.2% 31%  
282 0.6% 30%  
283 0.2% 30%  
284 0.8% 29%  
285 2% 29%  
286 0.7% 27%  
287 0.3% 26%  
288 2% 26%  
289 2% 24%  
290 1.4% 22%  
291 1.4% 20%  
292 0.6% 19%  
293 0.4% 18%  
294 1.2% 18%  
295 1.0% 17%  
296 2% 16%  
297 3% 14%  
298 3% 11%  
299 3% 8%  
300 1.0% 6%  
301 0.5% 5%  
302 1.0% 4%  
303 0.6% 3%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.2% 1.3%  
309 0.1% 1.1%  
310 0.1% 1.0%  
311 0.1% 0.9%  
312 0.1% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.3%  
318 0.1% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0% Majority

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.2% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.7%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0% 99.6%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.4%  
225 0.2% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 99.0%  
227 0.3% 98.7%  
228 0.2% 98%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.1% 98%  
231 0.2% 98%  
232 0.1% 97%  
233 0.2% 97%  
234 0.2% 97%  
235 0.5% 97%  
236 0.8% 96%  
237 2% 96%  
238 1.0% 94%  
239 2% 93%  
240 3% 91%  
241 0.8% 88%  
242 0.4% 87%  
243 1.2% 87%  
244 4% 85%  
245 2% 81%  
246 2% 80%  
247 7% 78%  
248 2% 71%  
249 2% 68%  
250 2% 66%  
251 1.0% 64%  
252 0.7% 63%  
253 0.2% 62%  
254 2% 62%  
255 3% 61%  
256 1.4% 57%  
257 2% 56%  
258 3% 54%  
259 2% 52% Median
260 2% 49%  
261 1.2% 47%  
262 3% 46% Last Result
263 1.3% 43%  
264 0.7% 41%  
265 1.0% 41%  
266 1.3% 40%  
267 0.3% 38%  
268 0.6% 38%  
269 0.3% 37%  
270 2% 37%  
271 0.9% 35%  
272 2% 34%  
273 0.5% 33%  
274 0.6% 32%  
275 0.5% 32%  
276 0.7% 31%  
277 1.0% 31%  
278 0.5% 30%  
279 0.7% 29%  
280 1.5% 28%  
281 1.1% 27%  
282 0.3% 26%  
283 2% 26%  
284 2% 24%  
285 1.1% 21%  
286 1.4% 20%  
287 0.4% 19%  
288 0.6% 18%  
289 1.0% 18%  
290 1.1% 17%  
291 1.0% 16%  
292 3% 15%  
293 3% 11%  
294 3% 9%  
295 1.1% 5%  
296 0.4% 4%  
297 0.6% 4%  
298 0.7% 3%  
299 0.4% 3%  
300 0.2% 2%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.4%  
304 0.1% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 1.0%  
306 0.1% 0.9%  
307 0.1% 0.8%  
308 0.1% 0.7%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations