Opinion Poll by ComRes for Sunday Express, 14–15 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 40.0% 38.6–41.4% 38.2–41.8% 37.9–42.2% 37.2–42.9%
Conservative Party 42.4% 36.0% 34.6–37.4% 34.2–37.8% 33.9–38.1% 33.3–38.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.5–10.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 305 288–324 283–330 277–335 265–342
Conservative Party 317 260 245–276 242–282 239–288 231–299
Liberal Democrats 12 24 19–27 18–27 17–28 15–29
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 39 17–50 10–51 8–52 4–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–8 3–8

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7% Last Result
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.2% 99.3%  
270 0.3% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 98.8%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.1% 98.5%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.2% 97%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0.3% 96%  
282 0.8% 96%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 1.5% 94%  
285 0.4% 93%  
286 1.0% 93%  
287 0.5% 92%  
288 1.3% 91%  
289 0.8% 90%  
290 2% 89%  
291 2% 87%  
292 2% 85%  
293 2% 83%  
294 3% 80%  
295 3% 78%  
296 2% 75%  
297 3% 73%  
298 3% 70%  
299 2% 67%  
300 2% 65%  
301 2% 63%  
302 2% 60%  
303 2% 58%  
304 3% 56%  
305 3% 53% Median
306 3% 50%  
307 3% 47%  
308 3% 43%  
309 4% 40%  
310 3% 36%  
311 1.5% 33%  
312 2% 32%  
313 2% 30%  
314 1.4% 28%  
315 2% 27%  
316 3% 25%  
317 2% 22%  
318 2% 19%  
319 2% 17%  
320 0.7% 16%  
321 2% 15%  
322 1.2% 13%  
323 1.3% 11%  
324 1.3% 10%  
325 0.8% 9%  
326 0.8% 8% Majority
327 0.5% 7%  
328 0.7% 7%  
329 0.8% 6%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.4% 5%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.6% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.4%  
233 0.1% 99.3%  
234 0.2% 99.2%  
235 0.1% 99.0%  
236 0.4% 98.9%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0.3% 98%  
240 1.1% 97%  
241 0.7% 96%  
242 1.0% 96%  
243 1.4% 95%  
244 2% 93%  
245 1.4% 91%  
246 2% 90%  
247 3% 88%  
248 3% 85%  
249 4% 83%  
250 2% 79%  
251 2% 77%  
252 2% 75%  
253 3% 73%  
254 4% 70%  
255 4% 66%  
256 3% 62%  
257 2% 60%  
258 2% 57%  
259 5% 55%  
260 5% 50% Median
261 2% 45%  
262 3% 44%  
263 4% 41%  
264 3% 37%  
265 3% 34%  
266 3% 30%  
267 3% 28%  
268 2% 24%  
269 2% 22%  
270 2% 20%  
271 2% 18%  
272 2% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 0.9% 12%  
275 1.2% 11%  
276 1.2% 10%  
277 1.2% 9%  
278 0.9% 8%  
279 0.4% 7%  
280 0.4% 6%  
281 0.9% 6%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.3% 5%  
284 0.4% 4%  
285 0.3% 4%  
286 0.5% 4%  
287 0.2% 3%  
288 0.5% 3%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.2% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.2%  
295 0.1% 1.0%  
296 0.2% 0.9%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 0.8% 99.3%  
17 1.3% 98%  
18 2% 97%  
19 5% 95%  
20 7% 89%  
21 3% 83%  
22 9% 80%  
23 4% 71%  
24 21% 66% Median
25 11% 46%  
26 10% 34%  
27 19% 24%  
28 4% 5%  
29 0.9% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.7%  
5 0.1% 99.5%  
6 0.5% 99.4%  
7 0.9% 98.9%  
8 0.8% 98%  
9 2% 97%  
10 0.5% 95%  
11 0.5% 95%  
12 1.1% 94%  
13 0.5% 93%  
14 0.5% 93%  
15 0.2% 92%  
16 2% 92%  
17 0.5% 90%  
18 0.9% 90%  
19 1.1% 89%  
20 1.0% 88%  
21 0.2% 87%  
22 2% 87%  
23 0.6% 85%  
24 3% 85%  
25 3% 82%  
26 6% 79%  
27 0.7% 73%  
28 6% 72%  
29 4% 66%  
30 2% 62%  
31 0.4% 60%  
32 1.5% 60%  
33 1.4% 58%  
34 0.6% 57%  
35 1.3% 56% Last Result
36 2% 55%  
37 0.6% 53%  
38 0.8% 53%  
39 3% 52% Median
40 1.2% 49%  
41 1.4% 48%  
42 4% 46%  
43 3% 42%  
44 5% 39%  
45 5% 34%  
46 7% 29%  
47 5% 22%  
48 2% 18%  
49 6% 16%  
50 4% 10%  
51 3% 6%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 9% 98% Last Result
5 82% 89% Median
6 3% 7%  
7 1.2% 5%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 370 99.8% 354–385 348–388 342–390 331–399
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 365 99.5% 349–379 343–383 337–386 325–394
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 346 95% 331–360 326–363 319–367 309–374
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 335 73% 316–353 310–360 305–364 292–371
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 341 91% 326–355 321–358 314–362 304–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 330 60% 311–348 305–354 300–359 287–367
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 310 15% 293–328 288–335 282–340 270–347
Labour Party 262 305 8% 288–324 283–330 277–335 265–342
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 300 4% 282–319 276–325 271–330 263–343
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 295 2% 277–314 270–320 266–325 258–338
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 284 0.3% 270–299 267–304 263–311 256–321
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 265 0% 251–281 247–287 244–293 236–304
Conservative Party 317 260 0% 245–276 242–282 239–288 231–299

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.8%  
325 0% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8% Majority
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0% 99.7%  
329 0.1% 99.6%  
330 0% 99.6%  
331 0.1% 99.5%  
332 0% 99.4%  
333 0.1% 99.4%  
334 0.2% 99.3%  
335 0.1% 99.1%  
336 0.2% 99.0%  
337 0.2% 98.7%  
338 0.2% 98.6%  
339 0.1% 98%  
340 0.4% 98%  
341 0.1% 98%  
342 0.6% 98%  
343 0.2% 97%  
344 0.6% 97%  
345 0.3% 96%  
346 0.4% 96%  
347 0.3% 96%  
348 0.5% 95%  
349 0.9% 95%  
350 0.4% 94%  
351 0.4% 94%  
352 0.9% 93%  
353 1.2% 92%  
354 1.2% 91%  
355 1.2% 90%  
356 1.0% 89%  
357 2% 88%  
358 2% 86%  
359 2% 84%  
360 2% 82%  
361 2% 80%  
362 2% 78%  
363 3% 75%  
364 3% 72%  
365 3% 70%  
366 3% 66%  
367 4% 63%  
368 3% 59%  
369 2% 56%  
370 5% 54%  
371 5% 49%  
372 2% 45%  
373 2% 43% Median
374 3% 40%  
375 4% 38%  
376 4% 34%  
377 3% 30%  
378 2% 27%  
379 2% 25%  
380 2% 23%  
381 4% 21%  
382 3% 17%  
383 3% 14%  
384 2% 12%  
385 1.4% 10%  
386 2% 9%  
387 1.5% 7%  
388 0.9% 5%  
389 0.7% 4%  
390 1.1% 4%  
391 0.3% 2%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.4% 1.5%  
395 0.1% 1.1%  
396 0.2% 1.0%  
397 0.1% 0.8%  
398 0.2% 0.7%  
399 0.2% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100% Last Result
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0% 99.6%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0.1% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0.1% 99.4%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.1% 99.0%  
331 0.2% 98.9%  
332 0.2% 98.8%  
333 0.1% 98.6%  
334 0.2% 98%  
335 0.3% 98%  
336 0.1% 98%  
337 0.6% 98%  
338 0.2% 97%  
339 0.6% 97%  
340 0.3% 96%  
341 0.4% 96%  
342 0.3% 96%  
343 0.6% 95%  
344 0.9% 95%  
345 0.5% 94%  
346 0.4% 93%  
347 0.8% 93%  
348 1.2% 92%  
349 1.5% 91%  
350 1.2% 89%  
351 1.2% 88%  
352 1.2% 87%  
353 2% 86%  
354 2% 84%  
355 3% 82%  
356 2% 79%  
357 2% 77%  
358 3% 76%  
359 3% 73%  
360 3% 70%  
361 4% 67%  
362 4% 63%  
363 3% 59%  
364 2% 56%  
365 5% 54%  
366 5% 49%  
367 2% 44%  
368 2% 42% Median
369 3% 40%  
370 3% 37%  
371 4% 34%  
372 3% 30%  
373 2% 27%  
374 2% 25%  
375 3% 23%  
376 4% 21%  
377 2% 17%  
378 3% 15%  
379 2% 12%  
380 0.9% 10%  
381 2% 9%  
382 2% 7%  
383 0.9% 5%  
384 0.5% 4%  
385 1.1% 4%  
386 0.4% 3%  
387 0.4% 2%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.4% 2%  
390 0.1% 1.1%  
391 0.2% 1.0%  
392 0.1% 0.8%  
393 0.1% 0.7%  
394 0.2% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9% Last Result
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0% 99.7%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0.1% 99.6%  
309 0.1% 99.5%  
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.3%  
312 0.1% 99.3%  
313 0.2% 99.2%  
314 0.2% 99.0%  
315 0.4% 98.8%  
316 0.2% 98%  
317 0.1% 98%  
318 0.2% 98%  
319 0.4% 98%  
320 0.3% 97%  
321 0.2% 97%  
322 0.5% 97%  
323 0.3% 96%  
324 0.8% 96%  
325 0.3% 95%  
326 0.6% 95% Majority
327 0.8% 95%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 0.7% 92%  
330 1.0% 92%  
331 0.8% 91%  
332 1.2% 90%  
333 1.3% 89%  
334 1.3% 87%  
335 2% 86%  
336 2% 84%  
337 3% 82%  
338 4% 79%  
339 3% 75%  
340 4% 72%  
341 2% 69%  
342 2% 67%  
343 4% 65%  
344 3% 61%  
345 6% 58%  
346 4% 52%  
347 3% 48%  
348 3% 45%  
349 3% 42% Median
350 2% 39%  
351 2% 37%  
352 5% 35%  
353 4% 30%  
354 2% 26%  
355 3% 24%  
356 3% 21%  
357 3% 18%  
358 1.4% 15%  
359 1.4% 14%  
360 2% 12%  
361 3% 10%  
362 2% 7%  
363 1.1% 6%  
364 0.8% 4%  
365 0.4% 4%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.6% 3%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.1% 1.2%  
371 0.2% 1.1%  
372 0.1% 0.8%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.1% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100% Last Result
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0% 99.6%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0% 99.5%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.1% 99.4%  
296 0.1% 99.3%  
297 0.1% 99.1%  
298 0.1% 99.0%  
299 0.2% 98.8%  
300 0.1% 98.6%  
301 0.2% 98%  
302 0.4% 98%  
303 0.1% 98%  
304 0.3% 98%  
305 0.2% 98%  
306 0.1% 97%  
307 0.3% 97%  
308 0.6% 97%  
309 0.6% 96%  
310 0.8% 96%  
311 0.5% 95%  
312 0.8% 94%  
313 1.2% 94%  
314 0.9% 92%  
315 0.7% 92%  
316 1.0% 91%  
317 0.7% 90%  
318 2% 89%  
319 2% 87%  
320 2% 85%  
321 1.4% 82%  
322 2% 81%  
323 1.4% 79%  
324 2% 77%  
325 2% 75%  
326 2% 73% Majority
327 2% 71%  
328 2% 69%  
329 4% 67%  
330 3% 63%  
331 3% 60%  
332 3% 57%  
333 1.4% 54%  
334 2% 53% Median
335 2% 51%  
336 3% 49%  
337 4% 46%  
338 4% 42%  
339 3% 38%  
340 2% 34%  
341 2% 32%  
342 3% 30%  
343 1.4% 27%  
344 2% 26%  
345 3% 24%  
346 0.9% 21%  
347 2% 20%  
348 3% 18%  
349 1.2% 15%  
350 1.4% 14%  
351 1.3% 13%  
352 1.3% 11%  
353 0.8% 10%  
354 0.8% 9%  
355 1.1% 8%  
356 0.7% 7%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.4% 6%  
359 0.4% 5%  
360 0.5% 5%  
361 0.6% 5%  
362 0.2% 4%  
363 0.8% 4%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.5% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.1%  
369 0.2% 0.9%  
370 0.2% 0.8%  
371 0.1% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8% Last Result
298 0% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0% 99.6%  
302 0.1% 99.6%  
303 0% 99.5%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.2%  
309 0.2% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.7%  
311 0.2% 98%  
312 0.2% 98%  
313 0.3% 98%  
314 0.5% 98%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.1% 97%  
317 0.5% 97%  
318 0.3% 96%  
319 0.9% 96%  
320 0.3% 95%  
321 0.7% 95%  
322 0.7% 94%  
323 1.3% 94%  
324 0.6% 92%  
325 1.1% 92%  
326 0.7% 91% Majority
327 2% 90%  
328 1.5% 88%  
329 1.2% 87%  
330 2% 86%  
331 2% 84%  
332 3% 82%  
333 2% 79%  
334 4% 76%  
335 4% 72%  
336 2% 69%  
337 2% 67%  
338 4% 64%  
339 3% 60%  
340 5% 57%  
341 4% 52%  
342 3% 48%  
343 3% 45%  
344 3% 42% Median
345 2% 39%  
346 2% 37%  
347 5% 35%  
348 4% 30%  
349 2% 26%  
350 3% 24%  
351 3% 21%  
352 3% 18%  
353 1.2% 15%  
354 2% 14%  
355 2% 12%  
356 2% 10%  
357 2% 8%  
358 1.0% 6%  
359 0.8% 4%  
360 0.3% 4%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.1% 1.2%  
366 0.2% 1.1%  
367 0.1% 0.9%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.2% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100% Last Result
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.6%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.4%  
290 0.2% 99.3%  
291 0.1% 99.2%  
292 0.1% 99.1%  
293 0.2% 99.0%  
294 0.2% 98.8%  
295 0.1% 98.6%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.1% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 0.3% 97%  
303 0.6% 97%  
304 0.7% 96%  
305 0.8% 96%  
306 0.5% 95%  
307 0.8% 94%  
308 1.0% 94%  
309 1.2% 93%  
310 0.6% 91%  
311 1.0% 91%  
312 0.6% 90%  
313 2% 89%  
314 3% 87%  
315 3% 85%  
316 1.1% 82%  
317 3% 81%  
318 1.3% 78%  
319 2% 77%  
320 2% 74%  
321 1.4% 73%  
322 2% 71%  
323 2% 69%  
324 4% 67%  
325 2% 62%  
326 3% 60% Majority
327 3% 57%  
328 2% 54%  
329 2% 53% Median
330 2% 51%  
331 3% 49%  
332 5% 46%  
333 4% 42%  
334 4% 38%  
335 2% 34%  
336 2% 32%  
337 3% 30%  
338 2% 27%  
339 1.4% 26%  
340 3% 24%  
341 1.3% 22%  
342 2% 20%  
343 3% 18%  
344 1.0% 15%  
345 1.4% 14%  
346 1.4% 13%  
347 1.2% 11%  
348 0.7% 10%  
349 0.7% 9%  
350 1.3% 9%  
351 0.7% 7%  
352 0.5% 7%  
353 0.7% 6%  
354 0.6% 6%  
355 0.6% 5%  
356 0.4% 4%  
357 0.3% 4%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.1%  
364 0.2% 0.9%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.1% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0.1% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8% Last Result
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.6%  
270 0% 99.5%  
271 0% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.4%  
274 0.2% 99.3%  
275 0.3% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 98.9%  
277 0.2% 98.7%  
278 0.1% 98.6%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0.4% 98%  
283 0.2% 97%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 0.1% 96%  
286 0.2% 96%  
287 0.8% 96%  
288 0.8% 95%  
289 1.4% 94%  
290 0.4% 93%  
291 1.2% 93%  
292 0.3% 92%  
293 1.3% 91%  
294 0.9% 90%  
295 2% 89%  
296 2% 87%  
297 2% 85%  
298 3% 83%  
299 3% 80%  
300 2% 77%  
301 2% 76%  
302 3% 73%  
303 4% 71%  
304 2% 67%  
305 2% 65%  
306 2% 62%  
307 2% 60%  
308 2% 58%  
309 3% 56%  
310 3% 53% Median
311 3% 50%  
312 4% 47%  
313 3% 43%  
314 4% 40%  
315 3% 36%  
316 1.2% 33%  
317 2% 32%  
318 2% 30%  
319 2% 28%  
320 2% 26%  
321 3% 25%  
322 2% 22%  
323 2% 19%  
324 2% 18%  
325 0.7% 16%  
326 2% 15% Majority
327 1.2% 13%  
328 1.5% 11%  
329 1.3% 10%  
330 0.8% 9%  
331 0.8% 8%  
332 0.5% 7%  
333 1.1% 7%  
334 0.3% 5%  
335 0.3% 5%  
336 0.4% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.2% 4%  
339 0.9% 4%  
340 0.4% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.1% 1.0%  
345 0.2% 0.9%  
346 0.1% 0.6%  
347 0.1% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0% 99.7% Last Result
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.1% 99.3%  
269 0.2% 99.3%  
270 0.3% 99.1%  
271 0.1% 98.8%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.1% 98.5%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.2% 97%  
279 0.7% 97%  
280 0.1% 96%  
281 0.3% 96%  
282 0.8% 96%  
283 0.8% 95%  
284 1.5% 94%  
285 0.4% 93%  
286 1.0% 93%  
287 0.5% 92%  
288 1.3% 91%  
289 0.8% 90%  
290 2% 89%  
291 2% 87%  
292 2% 85%  
293 2% 83%  
294 3% 80%  
295 3% 78%  
296 2% 75%  
297 3% 73%  
298 3% 70%  
299 2% 67%  
300 2% 65%  
301 2% 63%  
302 2% 60%  
303 2% 58%  
304 3% 56%  
305 3% 53% Median
306 3% 50%  
307 3% 47%  
308 3% 43%  
309 4% 40%  
310 3% 36%  
311 1.5% 33%  
312 2% 32%  
313 2% 30%  
314 1.4% 28%  
315 2% 27%  
316 3% 25%  
317 2% 22%  
318 2% 19%  
319 2% 17%  
320 0.7% 16%  
321 2% 15%  
322 1.2% 13%  
323 1.3% 11%  
324 1.3% 10%  
325 0.8% 9%  
326 0.8% 8% Majority
327 0.5% 7%  
328 0.7% 7%  
329 0.8% 6%  
330 0.4% 5%  
331 0.4% 5%  
332 0.4% 4%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 0.8% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.6% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.1% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.2% 99.4%  
266 0.2% 99.2%  
267 0.2% 99.1%  
268 0.5% 98.9%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.5% 98%  
272 0.7% 97%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 0.4% 96%  
275 0.6% 96%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 0.7% 94%  
278 0.5% 94%  
279 0.7% 93%  
280 1.3% 93%  
281 0.7% 91%  
282 0.8% 91%  
283 1.2% 90%  
284 1.4% 89%  
285 1.4% 87%  
286 1.1% 86%  
287 3% 85%  
288 2% 82%  
289 1.3% 80%  
290 2% 78%  
291 1.4% 76%  
292 2% 74%  
293 3% 73%  
294 2% 70%  
295 2% 68%  
296 4% 66%  
297 4% 62%  
298 5% 58%  
299 3% 53%  
300 2% 51%  
301 2% 49%  
302 2% 47%  
303 3% 46%  
304 3% 43% Median
305 2% 40%  
306 4% 37%  
307 2% 33%  
308 2% 31%  
309 1.4% 29%  
310 2% 27%  
311 3% 26%  
312 1.2% 23%  
313 3% 22%  
314 1.2% 19%  
315 2% 18%  
316 3% 15%  
317 2% 13%  
318 0.5% 11%  
319 1.0% 10%  
320 0.5% 9%  
321 1.2% 9%  
322 1.0% 7%  
323 0.8% 6%  
324 0.5% 6%  
325 0.7% 5%  
326 0.7% 4% Majority
327 0.6% 4%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.1% 3%  
330 0.3% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.1% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.1% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.4%  
337 0.1% 1.2%  
338 0.1% 1.0%  
339 0.1% 0.9%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0% 0.6%  
342 0.1% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1% Last Result
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.1% 99.6%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0.2% 99.4%  
261 0.2% 99.2%  
262 0.2% 99.0%  
263 0.5% 98.9%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.4% 98%  
266 0.5% 98%  
267 0.8% 97%  
268 0.3% 96%  
269 0.6% 96%  
270 0.5% 95%  
271 0.3% 95%  
272 0.4% 95%  
273 0.8% 94%  
274 0.7% 93%  
275 1.1% 93%  
276 0.8% 92%  
277 0.9% 91%  
278 1.2% 90%  
279 1.4% 89%  
280 1.4% 87%  
281 1.3% 86%  
282 3% 85%  
283 2% 82%  
284 0.9% 80%  
285 3% 79%  
286 2% 76%  
287 1.4% 74%  
288 3% 73%  
289 2% 70%  
290 2% 68%  
291 3% 66%  
292 4% 62%  
293 4% 58%  
294 3% 54%  
295 2% 51%  
296 2% 49%  
297 1.4% 47%  
298 3% 46%  
299 3% 43% Median
300 3% 40%  
301 4% 37%  
302 2% 33%  
303 2% 31%  
304 2% 29%  
305 2% 27%  
306 2% 25%  
307 1.3% 22%  
308 2% 21%  
309 2% 19%  
310 2% 17%  
311 2% 15%  
312 2% 13%  
313 0.6% 11%  
314 1.1% 10%  
315 0.6% 9%  
316 0.9% 8%  
317 1.3% 8%  
318 0.8% 6%  
319 0.5% 6%  
320 0.8% 5%  
321 0.6% 4%  
322 0.6% 4%  
323 0.3% 3%  
324 0.1% 3%  
325 0.2% 3%  
326 0.3% 2% Majority
327 0.1% 2%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.1% 1.5%  
331 0.2% 1.4%  
332 0.1% 1.1%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.1% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.2% 99.4%  
258 0.1% 99.3%  
259 0.2% 99.1%  
260 0.1% 98.9%  
261 0.4% 98.8%  
262 0.5% 98%  
263 0.6% 98%  
264 0.6% 97%  
265 0.5% 97%  
266 0.8% 96%  
267 1.1% 96%  
268 2% 94%  
269 3% 93%  
270 2% 90%  
271 1.4% 88%  
272 1.5% 86%  
273 3% 85%  
274 3% 82%  
275 3% 79%  
276 2% 76%  
277 4% 74%  
278 5% 70%  
279 2% 65%  
280 2% 63%  
281 3% 61%  
282 3% 58%  
283 3% 55%  
284 4% 52% Median
285 6% 48%  
286 3% 42%  
287 4% 39%  
288 2% 35%  
289 2% 33%  
290 4% 31%  
291 3% 27%  
292 4% 25%  
293 3% 21%  
294 2% 18%  
295 2% 16%  
296 1.1% 14%  
297 1.3% 12%  
298 1.2% 11%  
299 0.8% 10%  
300 1.0% 9%  
301 0.8% 8%  
302 1.2% 7%  
303 0.9% 6%  
304 0.6% 5%  
305 0.3% 5%  
306 0.8% 5%  
307 0.3% 4%  
308 0.5% 3%  
309 0.2% 3%  
310 0.2% 3%  
311 0.4% 3%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.1% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.2%  
317 0.2% 1.0%  
318 0.1% 0.8%  
319 0.1% 0.7%  
320 0.2% 0.7%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.3% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2% Last Result
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.2% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.4%  
238 0.1% 99.3%  
239 0.2% 99.2%  
240 0.1% 99.0%  
241 0.4% 98.9%  
242 0.3% 98%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.4% 98%  
245 1.1% 97%  
246 0.5% 96%  
247 1.0% 96%  
248 2% 95%  
249 2% 93%  
250 0.9% 91%  
251 2% 90%  
252 3% 88%  
253 2% 85%  
254 4% 83%  
255 3% 79%  
256 2% 77%  
257 2% 75%  
258 3% 73%  
259 4% 70%  
260 3% 66%  
261 3% 63%  
262 2% 60%  
263 2% 58%  
264 5% 56%  
265 5% 50% Median
266 2% 46%  
267 3% 44%  
268 4% 41%  
269 4% 37%  
270 3% 33%  
271 3% 30%  
272 3% 27%  
273 2% 24%  
274 2% 22%  
275 3% 21%  
276 2% 18%  
277 2% 16%  
278 1.4% 14%  
279 1.0% 13%  
280 1.2% 12%  
281 2% 11%  
282 1.2% 9%  
283 0.8% 8%  
284 0.4% 7%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 0.9% 6%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.4% 5%  
289 0.4% 4%  
290 0.3% 4%  
291 0.6% 4%  
292 0.2% 3%  
293 0.6% 3%  
294 0.1% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.2% 2%  
297 0.1% 2%  
298 0.2% 1.4%  
299 0.2% 1.2%  
300 0.1% 1.0%  
301 0.2% 0.9%  
302 0.1% 0.7%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.6%  
305 0% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0% Last Result

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.4%  
233 0.1% 99.3%  
234 0.2% 99.2%  
235 0.1% 99.0%  
236 0.4% 98.9%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0.3% 98%  
240 1.1% 97%  
241 0.7% 96%  
242 1.0% 96%  
243 1.4% 95%  
244 2% 93%  
245 1.4% 91%  
246 2% 90%  
247 3% 88%  
248 3% 85%  
249 4% 83%  
250 2% 79%  
251 2% 77%  
252 2% 75%  
253 3% 73%  
254 4% 70%  
255 4% 66%  
256 3% 62%  
257 2% 60%  
258 2% 57%  
259 5% 55%  
260 5% 50% Median
261 2% 45%  
262 3% 44%  
263 4% 41%  
264 3% 37%  
265 3% 34%  
266 3% 30%  
267 3% 28%  
268 2% 24%  
269 2% 22%  
270 2% 20%  
271 2% 18%  
272 2% 16%  
273 2% 14%  
274 0.9% 12%  
275 1.2% 11%  
276 1.2% 10%  
277 1.2% 9%  
278 0.9% 8%  
279 0.4% 7%  
280 0.4% 6%  
281 0.9% 6%  
282 0.5% 5%  
283 0.3% 5%  
284 0.4% 4%  
285 0.3% 4%  
286 0.5% 4%  
287 0.2% 3%  
288 0.5% 3%  
289 0.1% 2%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.1% 2%  
292 0.2% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.2%  
295 0.1% 1.0%  
296 0.2% 0.9%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0% 0.6%  
299 0.1% 0.6%  
300 0% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.2%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations