Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 26–27 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.4% 38.9–41.9% 38.5–42.4% 38.1–42.8% 37.4–43.5%
Labour Party 40.0% 35.3% 33.9–36.8% 33.5–37.3% 33.1–37.6% 32.4–38.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.1% 9.2–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.1% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.8%
Green Party 1.6% 3.1% 2.6–3.7% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 322 303–336 295–342 289–345 277–356
Labour Party 262 236 224–252 219–260 215–264 207–278
Liberal Democrats 12 26 21–29 20–30 19–30 17–32
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Scottish National Party 35 45 38–51 35–52 29–52 21–54
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 3 2–5 2–5 0–5 0–6

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.2% 98.7%  
286 0.3% 98.5%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.7% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.6% 96%  
295 0.5% 95%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.4% 95%  
298 0.9% 94%  
299 0.7% 93%  
300 0.5% 93%  
301 0.4% 92%  
302 1.2% 92%  
303 0.7% 91%  
304 2% 90%  
305 2% 88%  
306 0.6% 86%  
307 2% 86%  
308 0.6% 84%  
309 2% 83%  
310 1.1% 81%  
311 2% 80%  
312 3% 79%  
313 2% 76%  
314 1.0% 74%  
315 4% 73%  
316 5% 68%  
317 3% 63% Last Result
318 2% 60%  
319 2% 58%  
320 3% 56%  
321 3% 53%  
322 4% 50% Median
323 4% 47%  
324 5% 43%  
325 4% 38%  
326 2% 34% Majority
327 2% 33%  
328 3% 31%  
329 2% 27%  
330 2% 25%  
331 2% 23%  
332 3% 21%  
333 3% 17%  
334 2% 15%  
335 2% 13%  
336 0.9% 11%  
337 1.0% 10%  
338 0.9% 9%  
339 0.7% 8%  
340 1.5% 7%  
341 0.5% 6%  
342 1.2% 5%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 1.2%  
352 0.2% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.7%  
207 0.3% 99.6%  
208 0.3% 99.3%  
209 0.2% 98.9%  
210 0.3% 98.8%  
211 0.2% 98.5%  
212 0.1% 98%  
213 0.2% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 0.5% 98%  
216 0.3% 97%  
217 0.4% 97%  
218 0.9% 97%  
219 1.3% 96%  
220 0.5% 94%  
221 1.0% 94%  
222 0.6% 93%  
223 2% 92%  
224 3% 91%  
225 4% 88%  
226 3% 84%  
227 3% 81%  
228 2% 78%  
229 2% 76%  
230 6% 74%  
231 3% 68%  
232 3% 65%  
233 3% 63%  
234 0.7% 60%  
235 5% 59%  
236 7% 54% Median
237 5% 47%  
238 6% 42%  
239 4% 35%  
240 4% 31%  
241 2% 28%  
242 2% 25%  
243 1.1% 23%  
244 2% 22%  
245 2% 20%  
246 2% 18%  
247 2% 17%  
248 1.4% 14%  
249 0.8% 13%  
250 1.0% 12%  
251 0.9% 11%  
252 0.3% 10%  
253 0.5% 10%  
254 0.9% 9%  
255 1.1% 8%  
256 0.6% 7%  
257 0.4% 7%  
258 0.4% 6%  
259 0.5% 6%  
260 0.8% 5%  
261 0.8% 5%  
262 0.5% 4% Last Result
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.6% 3%  
265 0.3% 2%  
266 0.2% 2%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.1% 2%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.2%  
272 0.3% 1.1%  
273 0.1% 0.8%  
274 0% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.7%  
276 0% 0.6%  
277 0% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 0.5% 99.7%  
18 1.4% 99.2%  
19 2% 98%  
20 3% 96%  
21 6% 93%  
22 7% 87%  
23 4% 81%  
24 8% 76%  
25 13% 68%  
26 14% 55% Median
27 16% 41%  
28 15% 26%  
29 5% 11%  
30 4% 6%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 97% 100% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.1% 99.8%  
20 0.1% 99.7%  
21 0.3% 99.6%  
22 0% 99.3%  
23 0.4% 99.3%  
24 0.5% 98.9%  
25 0.1% 98%  
26 0.5% 98%  
27 0.2% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0.5% 98%  
30 0.2% 97%  
31 0.1% 97%  
32 0.8% 97%  
33 0.3% 96%  
34 0.4% 96%  
35 1.0% 95% Last Result
36 1.2% 94%  
37 2% 93%  
38 2% 91%  
39 2% 90%  
40 11% 87%  
41 11% 77%  
42 7% 65%  
43 1.0% 58%  
44 0.6% 57%  
45 10% 57% Median
46 0.7% 47%  
47 12% 46%  
48 13% 34%  
49 0.4% 20%  
50 8% 20%  
51 7% 12%  
52 4% 5%  
53 0.2% 1.1%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 2% 97%  
2 13% 96%  
3 45% 83% Median
4 7% 38% Last Result
5 31% 31%  
6 0.2% 0.5%  
7 0.1% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 368 99.5% 352–383 343–387 339–390 325–401
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 364 99.3% 349–380 340–383 335–387 321–398
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 347 93% 330–361 322–366 316–369 303–379
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 325 48% 306–340 299–344 293–349 280–359
Conservative Party 317 322 34% 303–336 295–342 289–345 277–356
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 308 12% 294–327 288–335 285–341 274–353
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 305 8% 290–324 285–331 281–337 271–350
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 283 0.6% 269–300 264–308 261–314 251–327
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 280 0.4% 265–298 261–305 257–311 247–323
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 266 0% 250–281 247–290 243–295 232–309
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 262 0% 247–277 243–287 240–291 229–305
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 240 0% 228–255 223–263 219–268 210–281
Labour Party 262 236 0% 224–252 219–260 215–264 207–278

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.8%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0% 99.7%  
322 0% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.1% 99.5%  
326 0% 99.5% Majority
327 0.1% 99.4%  
328 0% 99.4%  
329 0.1% 99.3%  
330 0.1% 99.2%  
331 0.1% 99.2%  
332 0.2% 99.0%  
333 0.1% 98.9%  
334 0.4% 98.8%  
335 0.1% 98%  
336 0.2% 98%  
337 0.3% 98%  
338 0.3% 98%  
339 0.3% 98%  
340 0.5% 97%  
341 0.6% 97%  
342 0.7% 96%  
343 0.5% 95%  
344 0.4% 95%  
345 0.4% 94%  
346 0.7% 94%  
347 0.6% 93%  
348 0.5% 93%  
349 0.7% 92%  
350 0.3% 92%  
351 0.4% 91%  
352 1.0% 91%  
353 1.4% 90%  
354 1.1% 89%  
355 0.4% 87%  
356 2% 87% Last Result
357 2% 85%  
358 2% 83%  
359 2% 81%  
360 2% 79%  
361 1.5% 77%  
362 3% 76%  
363 2% 73%  
364 3% 71%  
365 5% 68%  
366 6% 64%  
367 5% 58%  
368 4% 53%  
369 4% 49%  
370 2% 45% Median
371 4% 43%  
372 2% 39%  
373 1.5% 37%  
374 3% 36%  
375 5% 33%  
376 4% 28%  
377 2% 24%  
378 3% 21%  
379 3% 18%  
380 2% 15%  
381 1.2% 13%  
382 1.3% 12%  
383 1.1% 10%  
384 1.3% 9%  
385 1.5% 8%  
386 1.3% 7%  
387 0.6% 5%  
388 0.9% 5%  
389 0.5% 4%  
390 0.7% 3%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.2% 2%  
393 0.2% 2%  
394 0.1% 2%  
395 0.2% 2%  
396 0.1% 1.5%  
397 0.1% 1.3%  
398 0.3% 1.2%  
399 0.1% 0.9%  
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0% 0.4%  
403 0.2% 0.4%  
404 0% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0% 99.8%  
318 0% 99.7%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.6%  
321 0.1% 99.6%  
322 0% 99.5%  
323 0% 99.4%  
324 0.1% 99.4%  
325 0% 99.3%  
326 0.1% 99.3% Majority
327 0.1% 99.2%  
328 0.1% 99.1%  
329 0.2% 99.0%  
330 0.2% 98.9%  
331 0.2% 98.7%  
332 0.2% 98%  
333 0.1% 98%  
334 0.4% 98%  
335 0.4% 98%  
336 0.5% 97%  
337 0.4% 97%  
338 0.7% 97%  
339 0.7% 96%  
340 0.5% 95%  
341 0.3% 95%  
342 0.3% 94%  
343 0.5% 94%  
344 1.1% 93%  
345 0.4% 92%  
346 0.5% 92%  
347 0.4% 92%  
348 0.5% 91%  
349 0.9% 91%  
350 0.6% 90%  
351 1.3% 89%  
352 2% 88% Last Result
353 2% 86%  
354 3% 84%  
355 2% 81%  
356 2% 80%  
357 2% 78%  
358 0.6% 75%  
359 2% 75%  
360 3% 73%  
361 1.5% 70%  
362 4% 68%  
363 8% 65%  
364 8% 57%  
365 3% 50%  
366 3% 46%  
367 3% 43% Median
368 2% 40%  
369 2% 38%  
370 0.8% 36%  
371 2% 35%  
372 6% 33%  
373 5% 27%  
374 4% 22%  
375 4% 18%  
376 2% 15%  
377 0.7% 12%  
378 0.8% 12%  
379 0.6% 11%  
380 1.1% 10%  
381 2% 9%  
382 1.0% 7%  
383 2% 6%  
384 0.8% 5%  
385 1.0% 4%  
386 0.3% 3%  
387 0.3% 3%  
388 0.2% 2%  
389 0.1% 2%  
390 0.2% 2%  
391 0.1% 2%  
392 0.1% 2%  
393 0.1% 1.4%  
394 0.2% 1.3%  
395 0.3% 1.2%  
396 0.2% 0.9%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.3% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0% 99.7%  
300 0% 99.7%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0% 99.6%  
303 0.1% 99.6%  
304 0.1% 99.5%  
305 0.1% 99.4%  
306 0.1% 99.3%  
307 0.1% 99.2%  
308 0.1% 99.1%  
309 0% 99.0%  
310 0.2% 99.0%  
311 0.1% 98.7%  
312 0.1% 98.6%  
313 0.1% 98%  
314 0.4% 98%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.4% 98%  
317 0.2% 97%  
318 0.5% 97%  
319 0.3% 96%  
320 0.3% 96%  
321 0.7% 96%  
322 0.5% 95%  
323 0.4% 95%  
324 0.5% 94%  
325 0.9% 94%  
326 0.6% 93% Majority
327 0.6% 92%  
328 0.3% 91%  
329 0.7% 91% Last Result
330 2% 90%  
331 1.1% 89%  
332 1.5% 88%  
333 3% 86%  
334 0.7% 84%  
335 1.0% 83%  
336 2% 82%  
337 3% 80%  
338 2% 77%  
339 2% 76%  
340 3% 74%  
341 2% 71%  
342 5% 69%  
343 6% 65%  
344 2% 59%  
345 3% 57%  
346 2% 54%  
347 5% 52%  
348 4% 47% Median
349 4% 43%  
350 3% 39%  
351 2% 36%  
352 3% 34%  
353 4% 31%  
354 3% 28%  
355 2% 25%  
356 4% 23%  
357 3% 18%  
358 0.7% 15%  
359 2% 14%  
360 1.4% 12%  
361 1.4% 11%  
362 1.4% 9%  
363 1.0% 8%  
364 0.5% 7%  
365 1.0% 6%  
366 1.4% 5%  
367 0.8% 4%  
368 0.5% 3%  
369 0.2% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.3% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.4% 2%  
374 0.1% 1.2%  
375 0.2% 1.2%  
376 0.1% 1.0%  
377 0.1% 0.9%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0.1% 99.2%  
285 0.1% 99.2%  
286 0.2% 99.1%  
287 0.2% 98.9%  
288 0.2% 98.6%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.7% 98%  
294 0.3% 97%  
295 0.2% 97%  
296 0.2% 96%  
297 0.5% 96%  
298 0.5% 96%  
299 0.5% 95%  
300 0.4% 95%  
301 0.8% 94%  
302 0.5% 93%  
303 0.5% 93%  
304 0.8% 92%  
305 1.0% 92%  
306 1.1% 91%  
307 0.6% 89%  
308 2% 89%  
309 1.0% 87%  
310 0.6% 86%  
311 0.4% 85%  
312 3% 85%  
313 1.2% 82%  
314 1.5% 81%  
315 3% 79%  
316 2% 76%  
317 1.5% 74%  
318 3% 73%  
319 5% 70%  
320 3% 66%  
321 3% 62% Last Result
322 3% 59%  
323 3% 56%  
324 3% 54%  
325 3% 51% Median
326 4% 48% Majority
327 4% 44%  
328 4% 40%  
329 3% 37%  
330 2% 34%  
331 2% 32%  
332 2% 29%  
333 3% 27%  
334 4% 24%  
335 2% 20%  
336 2% 18%  
337 2% 16%  
338 2% 14%  
339 1.4% 12%  
340 1.3% 11%  
341 0.8% 9%  
342 1.0% 9%  
343 2% 8%  
344 0.8% 6%  
345 0.7% 5%  
346 0.4% 4%  
347 0.5% 4%  
348 0.6% 3%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.3% 2%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.1% 1.5%  
354 0.2% 1.4%  
355 0.2% 1.1%  
356 0.1% 0.9%  
357 0.1% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.7%  
359 0.1% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.7%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.3% 98.9%  
285 0.2% 98.7%  
286 0.3% 98.5%  
287 0.3% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.7% 97%  
291 0.1% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 96%  
294 0.6% 96%  
295 0.5% 95%  
296 0.3% 95%  
297 0.4% 95%  
298 0.9% 94%  
299 0.7% 93%  
300 0.5% 93%  
301 0.4% 92%  
302 1.2% 92%  
303 0.7% 91%  
304 2% 90%  
305 2% 88%  
306 0.6% 86%  
307 2% 86%  
308 0.6% 84%  
309 2% 83%  
310 1.1% 81%  
311 2% 80%  
312 3% 79%  
313 2% 76%  
314 1.0% 74%  
315 4% 73%  
316 5% 68%  
317 3% 63% Last Result
318 2% 60%  
319 2% 58%  
320 3% 56%  
321 3% 53%  
322 4% 50% Median
323 4% 47%  
324 5% 43%  
325 4% 38%  
326 2% 34% Majority
327 2% 33%  
328 3% 31%  
329 2% 27%  
330 2% 25%  
331 2% 23%  
332 3% 21%  
333 3% 17%  
334 2% 15%  
335 2% 13%  
336 0.9% 11%  
337 1.0% 10%  
338 0.9% 9%  
339 0.7% 8%  
340 1.5% 7%  
341 0.5% 6%  
342 1.2% 5%  
343 0.3% 4%  
344 0.6% 4%  
345 0.5% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.2% 1.4%  
351 0.2% 1.2%  
352 0.2% 1.0%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.6%  
356 0.1% 0.5%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.2%  
278 0.2% 99.2%  
279 0.2% 99.0%  
280 0.2% 98.8%  
281 0.2% 98.6%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.5% 98%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 0.4% 96%  
288 1.2% 96%  
289 0.5% 95%  
290 2% 94%  
291 0.6% 93%  
292 0.9% 92%  
293 1.0% 91%  
294 1.0% 90%  
295 2% 89%  
296 2% 87%  
297 3% 85%  
298 3% 82%  
299 2% 79%  
300 2% 77%  
301 2% 75%  
302 3% 72%  
303 2% 69%  
304 2% 67%  
305 4% 66%  
306 5% 62%  
307 4% 57%  
308 4% 53%  
309 3% 50%  
310 3% 47% Median
311 2% 44%  
312 2% 42%  
313 3% 40% Last Result
314 5% 37%  
315 4% 32%  
316 1.1% 27%  
317 2% 26%  
318 3% 24%  
319 2% 21%  
320 1.1% 20%  
321 2% 19%  
322 0.6% 17%  
323 2% 16%  
324 0.6% 14%  
325 2% 14%  
326 2% 12% Majority
327 0.7% 10%  
328 1.2% 9%  
329 0.4% 8%  
330 0.5% 8%  
331 0.7% 7%  
332 0.8% 7%  
333 0.4% 6%  
334 0.3% 5%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.6% 5%  
337 0.3% 4%  
338 0.3% 4%  
339 0.1% 3%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.2% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.2% 1.5%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.1% 1.1%  
348 0.1% 1.0%  
349 0.1% 0.9%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.2% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0.1% 99.2%  
275 0.3% 99.1%  
276 0.2% 98.8%  
277 0.1% 98.6%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.5% 98%  
282 0.6% 97%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 0.4% 96%  
285 0.7% 96%  
286 0.8% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 1.0% 92%  
289 0.9% 91%  
290 1.2% 91%  
291 1.4% 89%  
292 2% 88%  
293 2% 86%  
294 2% 84%  
295 2% 82%  
296 5% 80%  
297 2% 75%  
298 2% 73%  
299 2% 71%  
300 2% 68%  
301 3% 66%  
302 4% 63%  
303 4% 59%  
304 4% 56%  
305 3% 52%  
306 3% 49%  
307 3% 46% Median
308 3% 43%  
309 3% 41% Last Result
310 3% 38%  
311 5% 34%  
312 3% 30%  
313 1.5% 27%  
314 2% 26%  
315 3% 24%  
316 1.5% 21%  
317 1.2% 19%  
318 3% 18%  
319 0.4% 15%  
320 0.6% 15%  
321 1.1% 14%  
322 2% 13%  
323 0.6% 11%  
324 1.1% 11%  
325 1.0% 9%  
326 0.8% 8% Majority
327 0.5% 8%  
328 0.5% 7%  
329 0.8% 7%  
330 0.4% 6%  
331 0.5% 5%  
332 0.5% 5%  
333 0.5% 4%  
334 0.2% 4%  
335 0.2% 4%  
336 0.3% 3%  
337 0.7% 3%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.2% 1.4%  
344 0.2% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 0.9%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.8%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.1% 0.5%  
352 0% 0.4%  
353 0% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.3%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.1% 99.6%  
252 0.2% 99.4%  
253 0.1% 99.3%  
254 0.2% 99.1%  
255 0.1% 99.0%  
256 0.1% 98.8%  
257 0.4% 98.7%  
258 0.2% 98%  
259 0.4% 98%  
260 0.3% 98%  
261 0.2% 98%  
262 0.6% 97%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 1.4% 96%  
265 1.0% 95%  
266 0.5% 94%  
267 1.0% 93%  
268 1.5% 92%  
269 1.4% 91%  
270 1.4% 89%  
271 2% 88%  
272 0.6% 85%  
273 3% 85%  
274 4% 82%  
275 2% 77%  
276 3% 75%  
277 4% 72%  
278 3% 69%  
279 2% 66%  
280 3% 64%  
281 4% 61%  
282 4% 57%  
283 5% 53%  
284 2% 48% Median
285 3% 46%  
286 2% 43%  
287 6% 41%  
288 5% 35%  
289 2% 31%  
290 3% 29%  
291 2% 26%  
292 2% 24%  
293 3% 23%  
294 2% 20%  
295 1.0% 18%  
296 0.8% 17%  
297 3% 16%  
298 1.5% 14%  
299 1.1% 12%  
300 2% 11%  
301 0.7% 9% Last Result
302 0.3% 9%  
303 0.6% 9%  
304 0.6% 8%  
305 0.9% 7%  
306 0.5% 6%  
307 0.4% 6%  
308 0.5% 5%  
309 0.7% 5%  
310 0.3% 4%  
311 0.3% 4%  
312 0.5% 4%  
313 0.2% 3%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.1% 2%  
318 0.1% 2%  
319 0.1% 1.4%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0% 1.0%  
322 0.1% 1.0%  
323 0.1% 0.9%  
324 0.1% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.6% Majority
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.3%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.7%  
247 0.1% 99.6%  
248 0.1% 99.5%  
249 0.2% 99.4%  
250 0.1% 99.2%  
251 0.1% 99.0%  
252 0.2% 98.9%  
253 0.1% 98.7%  
254 0.3% 98.6%  
255 0.3% 98%  
256 0.4% 98%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.3% 97%  
259 0.6% 97%  
260 1.0% 96%  
261 0.9% 95%  
262 2% 94%  
263 0.5% 93%  
264 0.7% 92%  
265 2% 92%  
266 1.4% 90%  
267 1.1% 88%  
268 3% 87%  
269 1.1% 84%  
270 3% 83%  
271 3% 80%  
272 3% 77%  
273 4% 73%  
274 2% 70%  
275 3% 68%  
276 3% 65%  
277 3% 62%  
278 3% 59%  
279 4% 56%  
280 5% 52%  
281 2% 47% Median
282 1.2% 45%  
283 5% 43%  
284 6% 38%  
285 2% 32%  
286 2% 30%  
287 3% 28%  
288 2% 25%  
289 1.4% 23%  
290 2% 21%  
291 1.3% 19%  
292 2% 18%  
293 0.5% 16%  
294 2% 15%  
295 1.4% 13%  
296 0.7% 12%  
297 0.7% 11% Last Result
298 2% 10%  
299 0.5% 9%  
300 0.5% 8%  
301 0.7% 8%  
302 0.7% 7%  
303 0.4% 6%  
304 0.5% 6%  
305 0.6% 5%  
306 0.6% 5%  
307 0.3% 4%  
308 0.2% 4%  
309 0.7% 4%  
310 0.2% 3%  
311 0.4% 3%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.2% 2%  
314 0.2% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0% 1.3%  
317 0.2% 1.2%  
318 0.2% 1.1%  
319 0.1% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.8%  
321 0.1% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.3% 99.7%  
233 0.2% 99.5%  
234 0.2% 99.2%  
235 0.2% 99.1%  
236 0.2% 98.8%  
237 0.1% 98.7%  
238 0.1% 98.6%  
239 0.1% 98%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 0.1% 98%  
242 0.2% 98%  
243 0.3% 98%  
244 0.3% 97%  
245 1.0% 97%  
246 0.8% 96%  
247 2% 95%  
248 1.0% 94%  
249 2% 93%  
250 1.1% 91%  
251 0.6% 90%  
252 0.8% 89%  
253 0.7% 88%  
254 2% 88%  
255 4% 85%  
256 4% 82%  
257 5% 77%  
258 6% 73%  
259 2% 67%  
260 0.8% 65%  
261 2% 64%  
262 2% 61%  
263 3% 60%  
264 3% 57%  
265 3% 54% Median
266 8% 50%  
267 8% 43%  
268 4% 35%  
269 1.4% 32%  
270 3% 30%  
271 2% 27%  
272 0.6% 25%  
273 2% 25%  
274 2% 22%  
275 2% 20%  
276 3% 19%  
277 2% 16%  
278 2% 14% Last Result
279 1.3% 12%  
280 0.7% 11%  
281 0.9% 10%  
282 0.5% 9%  
283 0.4% 9%  
284 0.5% 8%  
285 0.4% 8%  
286 1.1% 8%  
287 0.5% 6%  
288 0.3% 6%  
289 0.3% 6%  
290 0.5% 5%  
291 0.7% 5%  
292 0.7% 4%  
293 0.4% 3%  
294 0.5% 3%  
295 0.4% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.1% 2%  
298 0.2% 2%  
299 0.2% 2%  
300 0.2% 1.3%  
301 0.2% 1.1%  
302 0% 1.0%  
303 0.1% 0.9%  
304 0.1% 0.8%  
305 0% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0% 0.6%  
308 0% 0.6%  
309 0.1% 0.5%  
310 0.1% 0.4%  
311 0% 0.4%  
312 0% 0.3%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.2% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.3%  
231 0.1% 99.2%  
232 0.3% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 98.8%  
234 0.2% 98.7%  
235 0.2% 98.5%  
236 0.1% 98%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.2% 98%  
239 0.2% 98%  
240 0.7% 98%  
241 0.6% 97%  
242 0.9% 96%  
243 0.6% 95%  
244 1.4% 95%  
245 1.4% 93%  
246 1.3% 92%  
247 1.1% 91%  
248 1.3% 90%  
249 1.3% 88%  
250 2% 87%  
251 3% 85%  
252 3% 82%  
253 2% 79%  
254 4% 76%  
255 5% 72%  
256 3% 67%  
257 1.5% 64%  
258 2% 63%  
259 4% 61%  
260 2% 57%  
261 4% 55%  
262 4% 51% Median
263 5% 46%  
264 6% 42%  
265 5% 36%  
266 3% 31%  
267 2% 29%  
268 3% 27%  
269 1.5% 24%  
270 2% 23%  
271 2% 21%  
272 2% 19%  
273 2% 17%  
274 2% 15% Last Result
275 0.4% 13%  
276 1.1% 12%  
277 1.4% 11%  
278 1.0% 10%  
279 0.4% 9%  
280 0.3% 9%  
281 0.7% 8%  
282 0.5% 8%  
283 0.6% 7%  
284 0.7% 7%  
285 0.3% 6%  
286 0.4% 6%  
287 0.5% 5%  
288 0.7% 5%  
289 0.6% 4%  
290 0.6% 3%  
291 0.3% 3%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.2% 2%  
295 0.1% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.1% 1.2%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.1% 1.0%  
300 0.1% 0.8%  
301 0.1% 0.8%  
302 0% 0.7%  
303 0.1% 0.6%  
304 0% 0.6%  
305 0.1% 0.5%  
306 0.1% 0.5%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0% 0.4%  
309 0% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.9%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0% 99.9%  
207 0% 99.8%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.1% 99.7%  
210 0.1% 99.6%  
211 0.3% 99.5%  
212 0.3% 99.2%  
213 0.3% 98.9%  
214 0.2% 98.6%  
215 0.2% 98%  
216 0.1% 98%  
217 0.1% 98%  
218 0.5% 98%  
219 0.2% 98%  
220 0.5% 97%  
221 0.7% 97%  
222 0.9% 96%  
223 1.2% 95%  
224 0.9% 94%  
225 0.5% 93%  
226 1.0% 93%  
227 2% 92%  
228 4% 90%  
229 3% 87%  
230 3% 83%  
231 2% 80%  
232 3% 78%  
233 5% 75%  
234 2% 69%  
235 3% 67%  
236 3% 64%  
237 1.1% 61%  
238 2% 60%  
239 7% 57% Median
240 7% 51%  
241 6% 43%  
242 5% 37%  
243 4% 32%  
244 1.2% 28%  
245 2% 27%  
246 2% 25%  
247 2% 23%  
248 0.4% 21%  
249 2% 20%  
250 4% 19%  
251 2% 15%  
252 0.6% 13%  
253 2% 12%  
254 0.6% 11%  
255 0.4% 10%  
256 0.1% 10%  
257 0.5% 10%  
258 2% 9%  
259 0.9% 8%  
260 0.3% 7%  
261 0.2% 6%  
262 0.7% 6%  
263 0.5% 6%  
264 0.9% 5%  
265 0.5% 4%  
266 0.4% 4% Last Result
267 0.5% 3%  
268 0.3% 3%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.1% 2%  
272 0.1% 2%  
273 0.3% 2%  
274 0.3% 1.3%  
275 0.1% 1.0%  
276 0.1% 0.9%  
277 0.1% 0.8%  
278 0.1% 0.7%  
279 0% 0.6%  
280 0% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0% 0.4%  
284 0% 0.4%  
285 0% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0% 99.9%  
203 0% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.8%  
205 0.1% 99.8%  
206 0.2% 99.7%  
207 0.3% 99.6%  
208 0.3% 99.3%  
209 0.2% 98.9%  
210 0.3% 98.8%  
211 0.2% 98.5%  
212 0.1% 98%  
213 0.2% 98%  
214 0.1% 98%  
215 0.5% 98%  
216 0.3% 97%  
217 0.4% 97%  
218 0.9% 97%  
219 1.3% 96%  
220 0.5% 94%  
221 1.0% 94%  
222 0.6% 93%  
223 2% 92%  
224 3% 91%  
225 4% 88%  
226 3% 84%  
227 3% 81%  
228 2% 78%  
229 2% 76%  
230 6% 74%  
231 3% 68%  
232 3% 65%  
233 3% 63%  
234 0.7% 60%  
235 5% 59%  
236 7% 54% Median
237 5% 47%  
238 6% 42%  
239 4% 35%  
240 4% 31%  
241 2% 28%  
242 2% 25%  
243 1.1% 23%  
244 2% 22%  
245 2% 20%  
246 2% 18%  
247 2% 17%  
248 1.4% 14%  
249 0.8% 13%  
250 1.0% 12%  
251 0.9% 11%  
252 0.3% 10%  
253 0.5% 10%  
254 0.9% 9%  
255 1.1% 8%  
256 0.6% 7%  
257 0.4% 7%  
258 0.4% 6%  
259 0.5% 6%  
260 0.8% 5%  
261 0.8% 5%  
262 0.5% 4% Last Result
263 0.2% 3%  
264 0.6% 3%  
265 0.3% 2%  
266 0.2% 2%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.1% 2%  
269 0.2% 2%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.1% 1.2%  
272 0.3% 1.1%  
273 0.1% 0.8%  
274 0% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.7%  
276 0% 0.6%  
277 0% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0% 0.4%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations