Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 3–4 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 39.6% 38.0–41.2% 37.6–41.6% 37.2–42.0% 36.5–42.8%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.6% 36.1–39.2% 35.7–39.6% 35.3–40.0% 34.6–40.8%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 8.1–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.4% 7.2–10.9%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.2% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.1–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.6% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 300 272–320 266–324 260–328 253–334
Labour Party 262 254 237–280 235–285 231–290 224–296
Liberal Democrats 12 19 14–26 13–27 12–27 11–28
Scottish National Party 35 52 48–57 46–57 42–57 39–57
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Plaid Cymru 4 5 3–5 2–5 2–5 1–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.5% 99.1%  
257 0.2% 98.6%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.3% 97%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 0.6% 97%  
264 0.9% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.6% 95%  
267 0.9% 95%  
268 0.7% 94%  
269 0.8% 93%  
270 1.1% 92%  
271 0.4% 91%  
272 1.0% 91%  
273 0.2% 90%  
274 0.8% 90%  
275 1.1% 89%  
276 2% 88%  
277 1.2% 85%  
278 0.8% 84%  
279 1.4% 83%  
280 2% 82%  
281 1.2% 80%  
282 0.6% 79%  
283 1.2% 79%  
284 1.0% 78%  
285 2% 77%  
286 0.7% 74%  
287 1.1% 74%  
288 2% 72%  
289 1.5% 70%  
290 2% 69%  
291 1.5% 67%  
292 1.1% 66%  
293 2% 64%  
294 2% 63%  
295 1.5% 61%  
296 3% 59%  
297 2% 57%  
298 3% 55%  
299 2% 52%  
300 2% 50% Median
301 3% 48%  
302 1.0% 45%  
303 3% 44%  
304 2% 41%  
305 2% 39%  
306 0.9% 37%  
307 2% 37%  
308 1.1% 35%  
309 2% 33%  
310 2% 31%  
311 4% 29%  
312 2% 26%  
313 1.3% 24%  
314 2% 23%  
315 3% 21%  
316 1.3% 18%  
317 2% 16% Last Result
318 2% 15%  
319 2% 13%  
320 1.5% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 1.5% 7%  
323 0.6% 6%  
324 0.5% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.4% 4% Majority
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.7% 3%  
329 0.7% 2%  
330 0.2% 1.4%  
331 0.2% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.3% 99.7%  
225 0.3% 99.5%  
226 0.4% 99.2%  
227 0.2% 98.8%  
228 0.3% 98.6%  
229 0.6% 98%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 1.0% 97%  
233 0.2% 96%  
234 0.2% 96%  
235 3% 96%  
236 2% 93%  
237 5% 91%  
238 3% 85%  
239 1.4% 82%  
240 2% 80%  
241 0.8% 79%  
242 2% 78%  
243 4% 76%  
244 0.9% 72%  
245 1.0% 71%  
246 3% 70%  
247 3% 67%  
248 2% 64%  
249 3% 62%  
250 1.3% 60%  
251 0.7% 58%  
252 0.2% 58%  
253 2% 57%  
254 5% 55% Median
255 3% 50%  
256 2% 47%  
257 1.0% 45%  
258 1.1% 44%  
259 3% 43%  
260 2% 40%  
261 4% 38%  
262 3% 34% Last Result
263 0.8% 31%  
264 1.3% 30%  
265 0.8% 29%  
266 0.9% 28%  
267 1.0% 27%  
268 1.2% 26%  
269 2% 25%  
270 4% 23%  
271 1.2% 20%  
272 1.0% 18%  
273 0.9% 17%  
274 2% 17%  
275 0.5% 15%  
276 0.8% 15%  
277 0.9% 14%  
278 1.1% 13%  
279 2% 12%  
280 0.9% 10%  
281 0.3% 9%  
282 1.2% 9%  
283 1.1% 8%  
284 1.4% 7%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.3% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.4% 4%  
289 0.7% 4%  
290 0.7% 3%  
291 0.6% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.2% 0.9%  
296 0.2% 0.7%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.7% 99.6%  
12 2% 98.8% Last Result
13 5% 96%  
14 6% 92%  
15 5% 85%  
16 7% 81%  
17 11% 73%  
18 9% 63%  
19 6% 54% Median
20 10% 48%  
21 6% 38%  
22 4% 32%  
23 3% 28%  
24 7% 25%  
25 7% 18%  
26 6% 11%  
27 4% 5%  
28 1.2% 1.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9% Last Result
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.2% 99.6%  
40 0.8% 99.5%  
41 0.6% 98.6%  
42 0.7% 98%  
43 0.3% 97%  
44 0.4% 97%  
45 1.3% 97%  
46 1.2% 95%  
47 2% 94%  
48 4% 92%  
49 5% 88%  
50 5% 83%  
51 18% 77%  
52 16% 59% Median
53 5% 43%  
54 13% 38%  
55 5% 25%  
56 7% 20%  
57 12% 13%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 84% 100% Last Result, Median
2 16% 16%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0.5% 99.7%  
2 5% 99.3%  
3 16% 94%  
4 20% 78% Last Result
5 55% 58% Median
6 1.0% 2%  
7 0.1% 1.3%  
8 1.1% 1.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 357 93% 330–376 322–379 317–382 310–389
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 352 90% 325–372 318–375 313–377 306–384
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 330 61% 310–357 307–364 302–370 296–377
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 326 51% 306–353 302–360 298–365 292–373
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 311 24% 292–337 288–344 284–348 277–354
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 319 36% 293–338 286–342 282–346 276–353
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 306 18% 288–333 283–340 280–343 273–351
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 304 8% 277–324 270–328 264–332 257–339
Conservative Party 317 300 4% 272–320 266–324 260–328 253–334
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 278 0.4% 258–305 256–312 253–317 246–324
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 273 0.1% 254–301 251–308 248–313 241–320
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 259 0% 241–284 239–289 235–294 229–301
Labour Party 262 254 0% 237–280 235–285 231–290 224–296

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.2% 99.7%  
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.3% 99.3%  
313 0.3% 99.0%  
314 0.2% 98.7%  
315 0.4% 98.5%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.4% 98%  
318 0.2% 97%  
319 0.3% 97%  
320 0.4% 97%  
321 0.5% 96%  
322 1.0% 96%  
323 0.7% 95%  
324 0.9% 94%  
325 0.6% 93%  
326 0.4% 93% Majority
327 0.6% 92%  
328 0.9% 92%  
329 0.7% 91%  
330 1.3% 90%  
331 1.0% 89%  
332 1.3% 88%  
333 1.2% 87%  
334 2% 85%  
335 1.0% 84%  
336 0.9% 83%  
337 1.0% 82%  
338 2% 81%  
339 1.0% 79%  
340 0.8% 78%  
341 1.4% 77%  
342 0.8% 76%  
343 1.1% 75%  
344 2% 74%  
345 2% 72%  
346 1.4% 70%  
347 3% 68%  
348 1.0% 66%  
349 1.0% 65%  
350 2% 64%  
351 2% 62%  
352 2% 60%  
353 1.1% 58%  
354 3% 57%  
355 2% 54%  
356 1.2% 52% Last Result
357 5% 51% Median
358 2% 46%  
359 4% 44%  
360 1.1% 40%  
361 0.9% 39%  
362 1.1% 38%  
363 2% 37%  
364 0.9% 35%  
365 1.3% 34%  
366 2% 33%  
367 4% 31%  
368 2% 26%  
369 2% 24%  
370 2% 22%  
371 1.2% 21%  
372 2% 19%  
373 2% 17%  
374 2% 16%  
375 3% 13%  
376 2% 11%  
377 2% 9%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 1.3% 6%  
380 0.9% 5%  
381 0.9% 4%  
382 0.3% 3%  
383 0.3% 2%  
384 0.4% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.5% 1.5%  
387 0.2% 1.0%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.4%  
308 0.3% 99.3%  
309 0.3% 99.0%  
310 0.3% 98.7%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.2% 98%  
314 0.3% 97%  
315 0.3% 97%  
316 0.3% 97%  
317 0.7% 96%  
318 0.7% 96%  
319 0.6% 95%  
320 1.1% 94%  
321 0.8% 93%  
322 0.6% 92%  
323 0.8% 92%  
324 0.6% 91%  
325 0.8% 91%  
326 1.4% 90% Majority
327 0.5% 88%  
328 2% 88%  
329 0.9% 86%  
330 1.0% 85%  
331 2% 84%  
332 0.8% 82%  
333 1.4% 82%  
334 2% 80%  
335 0.5% 79%  
336 2% 78%  
337 0.8% 76%  
338 1.0% 76%  
339 2% 75%  
340 2% 73%  
341 1.3% 71%  
342 1.4% 69%  
343 0.5% 68%  
344 3% 68%  
345 1.4% 65%  
346 2% 63%  
347 3% 62%  
348 2% 59%  
349 3% 57%  
350 2% 54%  
351 1.0% 53%  
352 4% 52% Last Result, Median
353 2% 48%  
354 4% 46%  
355 1.0% 42%  
356 1.3% 41%  
357 2% 39%  
358 1.1% 38%  
359 1.3% 37%  
360 2% 35%  
361 2% 33%  
362 3% 32%  
363 3% 29%  
364 2% 26%  
365 2% 23%  
366 1.4% 21%  
367 2% 20%  
368 1.4% 18%  
369 2% 17%  
370 3% 15%  
371 2% 12%  
372 2% 10%  
373 2% 8%  
374 1.1% 6%  
375 0.8% 5%  
376 1.1% 4%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.2% 1.2%  
383 0.4% 1.0%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 0.2% 99.1%  
300 0.2% 98.9%  
301 0.5% 98.7%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 0.8% 96%  
307 0.5% 95%  
308 1.2% 95%  
309 2% 93%  
310 1.5% 91%  
311 3% 90%  
312 2% 87%  
313 1.3% 85% Last Result
314 2% 84%  
315 3% 82%  
316 2% 79%  
317 1.2% 77%  
318 2% 76%  
319 3% 74%  
320 3% 71%  
321 2% 69%  
322 2% 67%  
323 1.4% 65%  
324 1.0% 63%  
325 2% 62%  
326 2% 61% Majority
327 3% 59%  
328 1.4% 56%  
329 3% 55%  
330 2% 52% Median
331 2% 50%  
332 2% 48%  
333 2% 45%  
334 3% 43%  
335 2% 40%  
336 2% 39%  
337 2% 37%  
338 1.1% 35%  
339 2% 34%  
340 1.5% 33%  
341 1.5% 31%  
342 2% 30%  
343 1.1% 27%  
344 0.6% 26%  
345 3% 26%  
346 1.0% 23%  
347 1.0% 22%  
348 0.6% 21%  
349 1.0% 21%  
350 2% 20%  
351 1.4% 18%  
352 0.9% 17%  
353 1.2% 16%  
354 2% 14%  
355 1.0% 12%  
356 0.6% 11%  
357 0.7% 11%  
358 0.7% 10%  
359 0.3% 9%  
360 1.4% 9%  
361 0.6% 8%  
362 1.1% 7%  
363 0.5% 6%  
364 0.6% 6%  
365 0.4% 5%  
366 0.8% 4%  
367 0.6% 4%  
368 0.3% 3%  
369 0.2% 3%  
370 0.5% 3%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.5%  
374 0.4% 1.3%  
375 0.1% 0.9%  
376 0.2% 0.7%  
377 0.1% 0.6%  
378 0.2% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.3%  
294 0.3% 99.2%  
295 0.2% 98.9%  
296 0.4% 98.7%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.8% 98%  
299 0.5% 97%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 1.1% 96%  
302 0.5% 95%  
303 1.1% 95%  
304 1.4% 94%  
305 2% 92%  
306 2% 91%  
307 2% 89%  
308 2% 87%  
309 2% 85% Last Result
310 3% 83%  
311 2% 80%  
312 1.2% 78%  
313 2% 77%  
314 2% 75%  
315 3% 74%  
316 2% 71%  
317 2% 69%  
318 3% 66%  
319 0.6% 64%  
320 1.5% 63%  
321 1.0% 62%  
322 3% 61%  
323 1.4% 58%  
324 3% 56%  
325 2% 53% Median
326 2% 51% Majority
327 1.0% 49%  
328 4% 48%  
329 3% 44%  
330 1.1% 41%  
331 2% 40%  
332 1.0% 38%  
333 1.2% 37%  
334 1.3% 36%  
335 2% 34%  
336 1.1% 33%  
337 2% 32%  
338 1.3% 29%  
339 2% 28%  
340 2% 26%  
341 1.1% 24%  
342 0.7% 23%  
343 0.8% 22%  
344 0.7% 21%  
345 0.6% 20%  
346 2% 20%  
347 1.3% 18%  
348 1.1% 16%  
349 0.8% 15%  
350 2% 14%  
351 0.9% 12%  
352 0.8% 11%  
353 0.6% 11%  
354 0.7% 10%  
355 1.0% 9%  
356 0.7% 8%  
357 0.8% 7%  
358 0.4% 7%  
359 0.6% 6%  
360 0.9% 6%  
361 0.3% 5%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.2% 4%  
364 0.6% 3%  
365 0.3% 3%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.4% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.4% 2%  
370 0.3% 1.1%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.2% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0.2% 99.3%  
281 0.4% 99.1%  
282 0.5% 98.7%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.5% 98%  
285 0.7% 97%  
286 0.6% 97%  
287 0.7% 96%  
288 0.7% 95%  
289 1.4% 95%  
290 1.2% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 1.2% 90%  
293 3% 89%  
294 3% 86%  
295 1.0% 83%  
296 2% 82%  
297 2% 81%  
298 2% 79%  
299 4% 77%  
300 2% 73%  
301 2% 71% Last Result
302 1.0% 70%  
303 3% 69%  
304 1.4% 65%  
305 1.1% 64%  
306 3% 63%  
307 2% 60%  
308 1.5% 58%  
309 4% 57%  
310 2% 53%  
311 2% 51% Median
312 1.1% 49%  
313 1.4% 48%  
314 3% 46%  
315 2% 43%  
316 2% 41%  
317 3% 39%  
318 1.4% 36%  
319 0.9% 35%  
320 1.5% 34%  
321 3% 32%  
322 2% 29%  
323 1.2% 27%  
324 0.5% 26%  
325 2% 26%  
326 2% 24% Majority
327 1.2% 22%  
328 1.0% 20%  
329 1.2% 19%  
330 2% 18%  
331 1.0% 16%  
332 1.1% 15%  
333 1.1% 14%  
334 0.7% 13%  
335 0.7% 12%  
336 1.4% 12%  
337 0.8% 10%  
338 0.4% 10%  
339 1.2% 9%  
340 0.9% 8%  
341 0.8% 7%  
342 0.3% 6%  
343 0.7% 6%  
344 0.9% 5%  
345 0.7% 4%  
346 0.4% 4%  
347 0.3% 3%  
348 0.6% 3%  
349 0.3% 2%  
350 0.5% 2%  
351 0.4% 1.5%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.3% 0.9%  
354 0.2% 0.6%  
355 0.1% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.5%  
277 0.3% 99.4%  
278 0.2% 99.0%  
279 0.4% 98.9%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.2% 97%  
284 0.5% 97%  
285 0.4% 96%  
286 1.1% 96%  
287 0.7% 95%  
288 0.6% 94%  
289 0.5% 94%  
290 1.4% 93%  
291 0.8% 92%  
292 0.5% 91%  
293 0.8% 90%  
294 1.4% 90%  
295 0.6% 88%  
296 0.8% 88%  
297 1.4% 87%  
298 0.8% 85%  
299 0.8% 85%  
300 2% 84%  
301 2% 82%  
302 0.6% 80%  
303 1.0% 79%  
304 3% 78%  
305 1.3% 76%  
306 0.6% 75%  
307 2% 74%  
308 2% 72%  
309 3% 70%  
310 2% 68%  
311 0.7% 66%  
312 1.4% 65%  
313 3% 64%  
314 2% 61%  
315 2% 59%  
316 3% 57%  
317 1.5% 54%  
318 1.2% 52%  
319 2% 51% Median
320 2% 49%  
321 4% 47%  
322 1.4% 43%  
323 2% 42%  
324 3% 40%  
325 1.1% 37%  
326 1.3% 36% Majority
327 3% 35%  
328 1.2% 32%  
329 2% 30% Last Result
330 2% 29%  
331 3% 26%  
332 2% 23%  
333 2% 21%  
334 2% 20%  
335 2% 18%  
336 2% 16%  
337 3% 14%  
338 2% 12%  
339 1.4% 10%  
340 1.4% 8%  
341 1.4% 7%  
342 0.9% 6%  
343 0.7% 5%  
344 0.5% 4%  
345 0.7% 3%  
346 0.5% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.3%  
350 0.2% 1.0%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.6%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.4%  
275 0.2% 99.3%  
276 0.3% 99.2%  
277 0.4% 98.8%  
278 0.3% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.4% 98%  
281 0.7% 97%  
282 0.9% 97%  
283 0.9% 96%  
284 1.2% 95%  
285 0.8% 94%  
286 1.2% 93%  
287 2% 92%  
288 3% 90%  
289 2% 87%  
290 2% 85%  
291 1.5% 83%  
292 2% 82%  
293 1.0% 79%  
294 3% 78%  
295 3% 76%  
296 2% 72%  
297 1.5% 71% Last Result
298 2% 69%  
299 2% 67%  
300 2% 66%  
301 2% 64%  
302 3% 62%  
303 1.3% 59%  
304 4% 57%  
305 2% 54%  
306 2% 51% Median
307 0.7% 49%  
308 1.2% 49%  
309 1.1% 47%  
310 4% 46%  
311 2% 42%  
312 4% 40%  
313 1.4% 36%  
314 1.1% 35%  
315 1.0% 34%  
316 0.9% 33%  
317 2% 32%  
318 2% 30%  
319 1.4% 28%  
320 1.3% 26%  
321 3% 25%  
322 1.2% 22%  
323 1.0% 21%  
324 1.2% 20%  
325 0.8% 19%  
326 2% 18% Majority
327 0.8% 16%  
328 1.4% 15%  
329 1.2% 14%  
330 0.5% 13%  
331 1.0% 12%  
332 0.6% 11%  
333 1.0% 11%  
334 0.8% 10%  
335 1.2% 9%  
336 1.0% 8%  
337 0.3% 7%  
338 0.3% 6%  
339 0.8% 6%  
340 0.9% 5%  
341 0.8% 4%  
342 0.5% 3%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.4% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 1.0%  
349 0.1% 0.7%  
350 0.1% 0.6%  
351 0.2% 0.5%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.7%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.1%  
261 0.5% 98.9%  
262 0.3% 98%  
263 0.4% 98%  
264 0.3% 98%  
265 0.2% 97%  
266 0.5% 97%  
267 0.3% 97%  
268 0.8% 96%  
269 0.5% 96%  
270 0.5% 95%  
271 1.0% 95%  
272 0.5% 94%  
273 0.7% 93%  
274 0.8% 92%  
275 0.8% 92%  
276 0.6% 91%  
277 1.1% 90%  
278 0.6% 89%  
279 0.6% 89%  
280 3% 88%  
281 0.4% 85%  
282 1.2% 85%  
283 1.2% 84%  
284 2% 82%  
285 0.9% 80%  
286 0.8% 79%  
287 0.5% 79%  
288 1.1% 78%  
289 1.1% 77%  
290 2% 76%  
291 2% 74%  
292 1.2% 72%  
293 2% 71%  
294 1.2% 68%  
295 1.5% 67%  
296 1.3% 66%  
297 1.3% 64%  
298 1.2% 63%  
299 2% 62%  
300 1.4% 60%  
301 3% 59%  
302 3% 56%  
303 1.4% 52%  
304 2% 51%  
305 2% 49% Median
306 3% 47%  
307 2% 44%  
308 3% 43%  
309 0.8% 39%  
310 1.5% 38%  
311 0.7% 37%  
312 3% 36%  
313 2% 33%  
314 2% 31%  
315 2% 29%  
316 2% 27%  
317 1.5% 25%  
318 1.4% 23%  
319 2% 22%  
320 3% 20%  
321 1.5% 17% Last Result
322 2% 16%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 10%  
326 2% 8% Majority
327 1.1% 6%  
328 0.6% 5%  
329 0.6% 5%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.5% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.1% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.5%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.1% 99.2%  
256 0.5% 99.1%  
257 0.2% 98.6%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.5% 98%  
260 0.2% 98%  
261 0.3% 97%  
262 0.2% 97%  
263 0.6% 97%  
264 0.9% 96%  
265 0.3% 95%  
266 0.6% 95%  
267 0.9% 95%  
268 0.7% 94%  
269 0.8% 93%  
270 1.1% 92%  
271 0.4% 91%  
272 1.0% 91%  
273 0.2% 90%  
274 0.8% 90%  
275 1.1% 89%  
276 2% 88%  
277 1.2% 85%  
278 0.8% 84%  
279 1.4% 83%  
280 2% 82%  
281 1.2% 80%  
282 0.6% 79%  
283 1.2% 79%  
284 1.0% 78%  
285 2% 77%  
286 0.7% 74%  
287 1.1% 74%  
288 2% 72%  
289 1.5% 70%  
290 2% 69%  
291 1.5% 67%  
292 1.1% 66%  
293 2% 64%  
294 2% 63%  
295 1.5% 61%  
296 3% 59%  
297 2% 57%  
298 3% 55%  
299 2% 52%  
300 2% 50% Median
301 3% 48%  
302 1.0% 45%  
303 3% 44%  
304 2% 41%  
305 2% 39%  
306 0.9% 37%  
307 2% 37%  
308 1.1% 35%  
309 2% 33%  
310 2% 31%  
311 4% 29%  
312 2% 26%  
313 1.3% 24%  
314 2% 23%  
315 3% 21%  
316 1.3% 18%  
317 2% 16% Last Result
318 2% 15%  
319 2% 13%  
320 1.5% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 1.5% 7%  
323 0.6% 6%  
324 0.5% 5%  
325 0.8% 4%  
326 0.4% 4% Majority
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.7% 3%  
329 0.7% 2%  
330 0.2% 1.4%  
331 0.2% 1.2%  
332 0.2% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.4%  
248 0.2% 99.0%  
249 0.3% 98.8%  
250 0.3% 98.5%  
251 0.3% 98%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.6% 98%  
254 1.1% 97%  
255 0.8% 96%  
256 1.0% 95%  
257 2% 94%  
258 2% 92%  
259 1.5% 90%  
260 2% 88%  
261 2% 86%  
262 2% 84%  
263 1.4% 81%  
264 1.1% 80%  
265 2% 79%  
266 2% 77%  
267 3% 74%  
268 3% 71%  
269 2% 68%  
270 2% 66%  
271 1.4% 65%  
272 0.6% 63%  
273 2% 63%  
274 1.4% 61%  
275 0.9% 59%  
276 4% 58%  
277 2% 54%  
278 4% 52% Last Result, Median
279 1.0% 48%  
280 2% 47%  
281 3% 46%  
282 1.2% 42%  
283 3% 41%  
284 1.4% 38%  
285 2% 37%  
286 3% 35%  
287 0.5% 32%  
288 2% 32%  
289 2% 30%  
290 2% 29%  
291 2% 27%  
292 1.0% 25%  
293 0.8% 24%  
294 1.4% 23%  
295 0.7% 22%  
296 2% 21%  
297 2% 20%  
298 0.7% 18%  
299 2% 17%  
300 1.1% 16%  
301 1.0% 15%  
302 1.5% 14%  
303 0.8% 12%  
304 0.7% 11%  
305 1.1% 11%  
306 0.9% 9%  
307 0.4% 9%  
308 0.9% 8%  
309 0.6% 7%  
310 1.0% 7%  
311 0.5% 6%  
312 0.6% 5%  
313 0.9% 5%  
314 0.4% 4%  
315 0.4% 3%  
316 0.2% 3%  
317 0.2% 3%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.2% 2%  
320 0.3% 2%  
321 0.4% 1.2%  
322 0.2% 0.9%  
323 0.2% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Majority
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.1% 99.4%  
243 0.2% 99.3%  
244 0.5% 99.0%  
245 0.3% 98.6%  
246 0.3% 98%  
247 0.3% 98%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 1.0% 97%  
250 0.8% 96%  
251 1.1% 96%  
252 1.4% 95%  
253 2% 93%  
254 2% 91%  
255 3% 90%  
256 2% 87%  
257 2% 85%  
258 2% 83%  
259 0.9% 81%  
260 2% 80%  
261 2% 78%  
262 2% 76%  
263 5% 74%  
264 2% 69%  
265 1.2% 67%  
266 1.0% 66%  
267 2% 65%  
268 1.3% 63%  
269 1.0% 62%  
270 1.0% 61%  
271 4% 60%  
272 2% 56%  
273 5% 54% Median
274 1.1% 49% Last Result
275 2% 48%  
276 3% 46%  
277 2% 43%  
278 2% 42%  
279 2% 40%  
280 2% 38%  
281 1.1% 36%  
282 0.9% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 32%  
285 2% 30%  
286 2% 28%  
287 1.1% 26%  
288 0.6% 25%  
289 1.4% 24%  
290 1.0% 23%  
291 0.8% 22%  
292 2% 21%  
293 0.9% 19%  
294 0.9% 18%  
295 1.1% 17%  
296 2% 16%  
297 1.1% 15%  
298 2% 13%  
299 0.8% 12%  
300 0.8% 11%  
301 1.0% 10%  
302 0.8% 9%  
303 0.8% 8%  
304 0.3% 7%  
305 0.5% 7%  
306 1.0% 7%  
307 0.6% 6%  
308 0.8% 5%  
309 0.7% 4%  
310 0.5% 4%  
311 0.3% 3%  
312 0.2% 3%  
313 0.6% 3%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.4% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.4%  
317 0.4% 1.3%  
318 0.2% 0.9%  
319 0.1% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.5%  
321 0.2% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.4% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.3%  
231 0.5% 99.1%  
232 0.2% 98.6%  
233 0.1% 98%  
234 0.7% 98%  
235 0.5% 98%  
236 0.7% 97%  
237 0.4% 96%  
238 0.1% 96%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 4% 95%  
241 3% 91%  
242 4% 88%  
243 3% 84%  
244 1.4% 80%  
245 0.4% 79%  
246 0.9% 78%  
247 4% 77%  
248 2% 74%  
249 0.9% 72%  
250 2% 71%  
251 3% 69%  
252 4% 66%  
253 1.4% 61%  
254 1.3% 60%  
255 1.0% 59%  
256 0% 58%  
257 0.3% 58%  
258 3% 57%  
259 6% 54% Median
260 3% 48%  
261 1.0% 45%  
262 0.7% 44%  
263 0.8% 43%  
264 3% 42%  
265 5% 39%  
266 2% 34% Last Result
267 2% 32%  
268 0.7% 30%  
269 2% 30%  
270 0.5% 28%  
271 1.3% 27%  
272 1.3% 26%  
273 1.2% 25%  
274 2% 24%  
275 3% 22%  
276 1.2% 19%  
277 0.9% 18%  
278 2% 17%  
279 0.9% 15%  
280 0.7% 14%  
281 0.3% 14%  
282 2% 13%  
283 1.3% 12%  
284 1.0% 10%  
285 0.4% 9%  
286 0.5% 9%  
287 2% 8%  
288 1.1% 7%  
289 0.7% 6%  
290 0.3% 5%  
291 0.1% 5%  
292 0.7% 4%  
293 0.6% 4%  
294 0.8% 3%  
295 0.4% 2%  
296 0.6% 2%  
297 0.5% 2%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.7%  
301 0.2% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.3%  
304 0% 0.2%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.8%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.3% 99.7%  
225 0.3% 99.5%  
226 0.4% 99.2%  
227 0.2% 98.8%  
228 0.3% 98.6%  
229 0.6% 98%  
230 0.2% 98%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 1.0% 97%  
233 0.2% 96%  
234 0.2% 96%  
235 3% 96%  
236 2% 93%  
237 5% 91%  
238 3% 85%  
239 1.4% 82%  
240 2% 80%  
241 0.8% 79%  
242 2% 78%  
243 4% 76%  
244 0.9% 72%  
245 1.0% 71%  
246 3% 70%  
247 3% 67%  
248 2% 64%  
249 3% 62%  
250 1.3% 60%  
251 0.7% 58%  
252 0.2% 58%  
253 2% 57%  
254 5% 55% Median
255 3% 50%  
256 2% 47%  
257 1.0% 45%  
258 1.1% 44%  
259 3% 43%  
260 2% 40%  
261 4% 38%  
262 3% 34% Last Result
263 0.8% 31%  
264 1.3% 30%  
265 0.8% 29%  
266 0.9% 28%  
267 1.0% 27%  
268 1.2% 26%  
269 2% 25%  
270 4% 23%  
271 1.2% 20%  
272 1.0% 18%  
273 0.9% 17%  
274 2% 17%  
275 0.5% 15%  
276 0.8% 15%  
277 0.9% 14%  
278 1.1% 13%  
279 2% 12%  
280 0.9% 10%  
281 0.3% 9%  
282 1.2% 9%  
283 1.1% 8%  
284 1.4% 7%  
285 0.4% 5%  
286 0.3% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.4% 4%  
289 0.7% 4%  
290 0.7% 3%  
291 0.6% 2%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.2% 0.9%  
296 0.2% 0.7%  
297 0.1% 0.5%  
298 0.1% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations