Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 5–6 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.6% 35.8–39.4% 35.3–40.0% 34.9–40.4% 34.0–41.3%
Labour Party 40.0% 37.6% 35.8–39.4% 35.3–40.0% 34.9–40.4% 34.0–41.3%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 8.9% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.4% 7.4–10.7% 7.0–11.3%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.8%
Green Party 1.6% 4.9% 4.2–5.8% 4.0–6.1% 3.8–6.3% 3.5–6.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 277 255–311 251–317 247–321 238–330
Labour Party 262 273 243–294 237–299 234–303 226–311
Liberal Democrats 12 22 15–27 13–27 12–28 11–29
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Scottish National Party 35 52 45–56 41–57 38–57 26–58
Plaid Cymru 4 5 5–8 4–8 3–8 2–10

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.2% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.2%  
242 0.2% 98.9%  
243 0.2% 98.7%  
244 0.2% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.4% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.8% 97%  
250 0.7% 96%  
251 1.2% 95%  
252 1.0% 94%  
253 1.4% 93%  
254 1.0% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 0.8% 89%  
257 2% 88%  
258 3% 86%  
259 2% 83%  
260 2% 81%  
261 0.5% 79%  
262 2% 79%  
263 2% 77%  
264 1.3% 75%  
265 3% 74%  
266 1.4% 71%  
267 2% 69%  
268 2% 67%  
269 1.3% 65%  
270 0.9% 64%  
271 1.5% 63%  
272 1.0% 61%  
273 4% 60%  
274 1.0% 56%  
275 2% 55%  
276 3% 54%  
277 3% 51% Median
278 1.0% 48%  
279 2% 47%  
280 0.7% 45%  
281 1.2% 45%  
282 2% 43%  
283 1.3% 42%  
284 0.8% 40%  
285 2% 39%  
286 1.1% 38%  
287 2% 36%  
288 0.8% 34%  
289 1.4% 33%  
290 0.9% 32%  
291 1.0% 31%  
292 1.4% 30%  
293 0.9% 29%  
294 2% 28%  
295 2% 26%  
296 1.3% 24%  
297 1.1% 23%  
298 3% 22%  
299 0.8% 19%  
300 0.8% 19%  
301 0.7% 18%  
302 1.3% 17%  
303 0.3% 16%  
304 0.7% 15%  
305 0.6% 15%  
306 0.7% 14%  
307 0.5% 13%  
308 1.3% 13%  
309 0.7% 12%  
310 0.8% 11%  
311 1.0% 10%  
312 0.7% 9%  
313 0.5% 8%  
314 1.0% 8%  
315 0.4% 7%  
316 0.6% 7%  
317 1.2% 6% Last Result
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.5%  
326 0.2% 1.4% Majority
327 0.3% 1.2%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0.1% 99.4%  
228 0.1% 99.3%  
229 0.2% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.4% 98.9%  
232 0.4% 98.6%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.4% 98%  
235 0.9% 97%  
236 0.9% 97%  
237 1.2% 96%  
238 2% 94%  
239 0.5% 92%  
240 0.6% 92%  
241 0.4% 91%  
242 0.8% 91%  
243 0.7% 90%  
244 0.5% 89%  
245 0.6% 89%  
246 1.3% 88%  
247 1.5% 87%  
248 0.7% 85%  
249 0.7% 85%  
250 0.7% 84%  
251 1.0% 83%  
252 0.6% 82%  
253 0.2% 82%  
254 3% 81%  
255 1.1% 78%  
256 0.6% 77%  
257 2% 77%  
258 1.4% 75%  
259 2% 74%  
260 3% 72%  
261 2% 69%  
262 0.7% 67% Last Result
263 2% 67%  
264 0.8% 65%  
265 1.3% 64%  
266 2% 63%  
267 0.6% 61%  
268 0.7% 61%  
269 3% 60%  
270 3% 57%  
271 2% 54%  
272 0.8% 52%  
273 2% 51% Median
274 1.4% 49%  
275 3% 48%  
276 0.4% 45%  
277 0.6% 44%  
278 4% 44%  
279 1.0% 40%  
280 0.9% 39%  
281 3% 38%  
282 1.2% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 31%  
285 0.8% 28%  
286 1.0% 28%  
287 2% 27%  
288 3% 25%  
289 2% 22%  
290 3% 20%  
291 2% 17%  
292 2% 15%  
293 3% 13%  
294 1.1% 10%  
295 0.9% 9%  
296 2% 8%  
297 1.3% 7%  
298 0.3% 5%  
299 0.4% 5%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 1.0% 4%  
302 0.5% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.3%  
308 0.1% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 1.0% 99.6%  
12 2% 98.6% Last Result
13 3% 97%  
14 2% 94%  
15 3% 92%  
16 7% 89%  
17 4% 82%  
18 6% 78%  
19 6% 73%  
20 6% 67%  
21 5% 61%  
22 7% 56% Median
23 7% 49%  
24 10% 41%  
25 9% 32%  
26 9% 23%  
27 10% 13%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 1.1%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 99.6% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 72% 85% Median
3 13% 14%  
4 0.2% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.7%  
26 0.2% 99.6%  
27 0.1% 99.5%  
28 0.3% 99.4%  
29 0.2% 99.1%  
30 0.1% 98.9%  
31 0.1% 98.8%  
32 0.1% 98.7%  
33 0.2% 98.6%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0.3% 98% Last Result
36 0.1% 98%  
37 0.1% 98%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 1.1% 97%  
40 1.0% 96%  
41 0.9% 95%  
42 0.5% 94%  
43 0.5% 94%  
44 2% 93%  
45 1.3% 91%  
46 2% 90%  
47 4% 88%  
48 4% 83%  
49 3% 79%  
50 9% 76%  
51 16% 67%  
52 16% 52% Median
53 3% 35%  
54 12% 32%  
55 3% 20%  
56 7% 17%  
57 9% 9%  
58 0.6% 0.6%  
59 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.9%  
3 3% 99.5%  
4 6% 96% Last Result
5 66% 90% Median
6 5% 24%  
7 3% 19%  
8 13% 16%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.6% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.4%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 352 85% 318–374 312–378 308–382 299–391
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 334 65% 312–367 307–373 303–377 294–385
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 347 79% 313–369 306–373 302–377 292–386
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 329 57% 306–362 301–368 298–371 289–378
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 330 57% 298–352 293–356 288–360 280–368
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 324 49% 293–346 287–351 282–355 273–363
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 299 14% 277–331 273–336 269–341 261–349
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 300 7% 267–322 262–327 258–331 251–339
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 282 3% 260–316 256–323 252–327 243–337
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 295 3% 262–317 256–322 252–326 245–334
Conservative Party 317 277 1.4% 255–311 251–317 247–321 238–330
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 279 0.1% 248–299 242–304 240–308 232–316
Labour Party 262 273 0% 243–294 237–299 234–303 226–311

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.1% 99.3%  
302 0.3% 99.2%  
303 0.2% 98.9%  
304 0.1% 98.6%  
305 0.3% 98.5%  
306 0.3% 98%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.3% 97%  
311 1.0% 96%  
312 1.1% 95%  
313 0.7% 94% Last Result
314 0.4% 93%  
315 0.9% 93%  
316 0.7% 92%  
317 0.5% 91%  
318 1.1% 91%  
319 1.0% 90%  
320 0.6% 89%  
321 1.2% 88%  
322 0.5% 87%  
323 0.6% 87%  
324 0.5% 86%  
325 0.8% 85%  
326 0.6% 85% Majority
327 1.0% 84%  
328 0.6% 83%  
329 0.9% 82%  
330 1.2% 81%  
331 2% 80%  
332 0.8% 78%  
333 1.2% 77%  
334 2% 76%  
335 2% 74%  
336 1.1% 73%  
337 2% 71%  
338 0.8% 70%  
339 1.1% 69%  
340 0.5% 68%  
341 1.4% 67%  
342 2% 66%  
343 1.2% 64%  
344 1.4% 62%  
345 1.3% 61%  
346 1.3% 60%  
347 2% 58%  
348 1.0% 57%  
349 0.8% 56%  
350 1.1% 55%  
351 2% 54%  
352 3% 52% Median
353 2% 49%  
354 2% 46%  
355 1.3% 44%  
356 4% 43%  
357 0.6% 39%  
358 2% 39%  
359 0.6% 37%  
360 1.3% 36%  
361 2% 35%  
362 2% 33%  
363 2% 31%  
364 3% 29%  
365 2% 26%  
366 2% 25%  
367 2% 23%  
368 0.7% 21%  
369 2% 21%  
370 2% 19%  
371 3% 17%  
372 2% 14%  
373 1.4% 12%  
374 1.1% 11%  
375 2% 10%  
376 0.7% 8%  
377 1.4% 7%  
378 1.0% 6%  
379 0.7% 5%  
380 0.8% 4%  
381 0.6% 3%  
382 0.4% 3%  
383 0.5% 2%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.5%  
387 0.3% 1.3%  
388 0.3% 1.0%  
389 0.2% 0.8%  
390 0.1% 0.6%  
391 0.1% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.4%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0% 99.8%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.3% 99.3%  
297 0.2% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 98.9%  
299 0.3% 98.7%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.2% 97%  
305 0.5% 97%  
306 1.5% 96%  
307 0.5% 95%  
308 0.9% 94%  
309 2% 94%  
310 0.8% 92%  
311 1.2% 91%  
312 1.5% 90%  
313 0.8% 89%  
314 2% 88%  
315 2% 86%  
316 3% 84%  
317 1.5% 81%  
318 3% 80%  
319 1.4% 77%  
320 2% 75%  
321 2% 73%  
322 2% 71%  
323 1.0% 69%  
324 2% 68%  
325 1.0% 66%  
326 0.9% 65% Majority
327 2% 64%  
328 0.8% 62%  
329 1.5% 61%  
330 3% 60%  
331 1.3% 57%  
332 2% 56%  
333 2% 54%  
334 2% 51% Median
335 3% 49%  
336 2% 46%  
337 1.4% 44%  
338 0.9% 43%  
339 1.4% 42%  
340 2% 41%  
341 1.3% 39%  
342 2% 37%  
343 0.9% 35%  
344 1.5% 34%  
345 1.0% 33%  
346 0.8% 32%  
347 1.0% 31%  
348 0.5% 30%  
349 1.1% 30%  
350 1.3% 28%  
351 2% 27%  
352 0.6% 25%  
353 1.4% 25%  
354 2% 23%  
355 1.4% 21%  
356 2% 19% Last Result
357 1.2% 18%  
358 0.5% 16%  
359 0.8% 16%  
360 1.0% 15%  
361 0.8% 14%  
362 0.6% 13%  
363 0.6% 13%  
364 0.6% 12%  
365 0.3% 12%  
366 0.8% 11%  
367 0.6% 11%  
368 0.9% 10%  
369 0.7% 9%  
370 0.7% 8%  
371 1.2% 8%  
372 1.1% 6%  
373 1.0% 5%  
374 0.6% 4%  
375 0.4% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 3%  
378 0.2% 2%  
379 0.7% 2%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.4%  
382 0.2% 1.1%  
383 0.3% 0.9%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.1% 99.3%  
296 0.1% 99.1%  
297 0.3% 99.1%  
298 0.2% 98.8%  
299 0.2% 98.5%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.5% 97%  
305 0.5% 96%  
306 0.9% 96%  
307 0.9% 95%  
308 0.9% 94%  
309 0.6% 93% Last Result
310 0.8% 92%  
311 0.8% 92%  
312 0.5% 91%  
313 1.0% 90%  
314 0.9% 89%  
315 0.7% 88%  
316 1.1% 88%  
317 0.6% 87%  
318 0.8% 86%  
319 0.6% 85%  
320 0.7% 85%  
321 0.7% 84%  
322 0.9% 83%  
323 0.8% 83%  
324 1.2% 82%  
325 1.4% 81%  
326 2% 79% Majority
327 1.3% 77%  
328 0.9% 76%  
329 1.4% 75%  
330 1.5% 74%  
331 2% 72%  
332 2% 71%  
333 0.6% 69%  
334 1.3% 68%  
335 0.9% 67%  
336 2% 66%  
337 2% 65%  
338 2% 63%  
339 1.4% 61%  
340 1.2% 60%  
341 1.3% 59%  
342 1.2% 57%  
343 0.9% 56%  
344 1.0% 55%  
345 0.8% 54%  
346 3% 53%  
347 3% 50% Median
348 2% 47%  
349 1.3% 45%  
350 1.4% 44%  
351 4% 43%  
352 0.6% 39%  
353 2% 38%  
354 0.9% 36%  
355 1.0% 35%  
356 3% 34%  
357 1.3% 31%  
358 2% 30%  
359 3% 28%  
360 2% 26%  
361 1.5% 24%  
362 2% 23%  
363 2% 21%  
364 1.4% 19%  
365 1.3% 18%  
366 2% 17%  
367 3% 14%  
368 1.1% 12%  
369 1.0% 10%  
370 2% 9%  
371 0.9% 8%  
372 1.4% 7%  
373 0.7% 5%  
374 0.8% 5%  
375 0.8% 4%  
376 0.5% 3%  
377 0.4% 3%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.3% 2%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.1% 1.4%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 1.0%  
384 0.1% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.3%  
292 0.2% 99.0%  
293 0.2% 98.8%  
294 0.2% 98.6%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.2% 98%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.5% 97%  
301 1.5% 96%  
302 0.6% 95%  
303 1.0% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 0.7% 92%  
306 1.0% 91%  
307 1.2% 90%  
308 0.7% 89%  
309 1.3% 88%  
310 3% 87%  
311 3% 83%  
312 1.3% 80%  
313 2% 79%  
314 2% 76%  
315 2% 75%  
316 3% 73%  
317 2% 70%  
318 1.3% 68%  
319 2% 67%  
320 0.9% 65%  
321 0.5% 64%  
322 1.2% 63%  
323 0.8% 62%  
324 1.4% 61%  
325 3% 60%  
326 1.2% 57% Majority
327 3% 56%  
328 2% 53%  
329 3% 51% Median
330 3% 49%  
331 2% 46%  
332 2% 43%  
333 1.4% 42%  
334 2% 40%  
335 2% 39%  
336 1.4% 37%  
337 2% 36%  
338 0.9% 34%  
339 1.3% 33%  
340 0.7% 32%  
341 1.1% 31%  
342 0.5% 30%  
343 0.6% 30%  
344 0.7% 29%  
345 1.5% 28%  
346 2% 27%  
347 0.9% 25%  
348 2% 24%  
349 2% 22%  
350 1.4% 20%  
351 1.4% 18%  
352 1.1% 17% Last Result
353 0.7% 16%  
354 0.7% 15%  
355 1.1% 14%  
356 0.8% 13%  
357 0.5% 13%  
358 0.4% 12%  
359 0.6% 12%  
360 0.3% 11%  
361 0.5% 11%  
362 0.5% 10%  
363 0.9% 10%  
364 1.0% 9%  
365 0.6% 8%  
366 1.2% 7%  
367 1.0% 6%  
368 1.2% 5%  
369 0.7% 4%  
370 0.3% 3%  
371 0.5% 3%  
372 0.4% 2%  
373 0.2% 2%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.3%  
376 0.3% 1.2%  
377 0.1% 0.9%  
378 0.2% 0.7%  
379 0.1% 0.5%  
380 0.1% 0.4%  
381 0% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.6%  
280 0.1% 99.5%  
281 0.1% 99.4%  
282 0.2% 99.3%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 98.9%  
285 0.3% 98.7%  
286 0.3% 98%  
287 0.4% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 0.5% 97%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.8% 96%  
293 1.1% 95%  
294 1.0% 94%  
295 1.0% 93%  
296 0.7% 92%  
297 0.5% 91%  
298 1.4% 91%  
299 0.6% 90%  
300 1.3% 89%  
301 0.3% 88% Last Result
302 0.7% 87%  
303 0.8% 87%  
304 0.8% 86%  
305 0.7% 85%  
306 1.4% 84%  
307 1.1% 83%  
308 0.6% 82%  
309 1.2% 81%  
310 1.0% 80%  
311 2% 79%  
312 1.4% 77%  
313 0.9% 76%  
314 1.3% 75%  
315 2% 74%  
316 1.1% 72%  
317 2% 70%  
318 1.2% 69%  
319 2% 67%  
320 2% 66%  
321 2% 64%  
322 0.8% 62%  
323 0.8% 62%  
324 1.2% 61%  
325 2% 60%  
326 2% 57% Majority
327 2% 55%  
328 1.3% 54%  
329 2% 52%  
330 0.9% 50% Median
331 1.3% 49%  
332 3% 48%  
333 3% 46%  
334 2% 43%  
335 0.8% 41%  
336 2% 40%  
337 2% 38%  
338 3% 36%  
339 1.1% 33%  
340 1.1% 32%  
341 1.3% 31%  
342 2% 29%  
343 1.4% 27%  
344 2% 26%  
345 2% 24%  
346 2% 22%  
347 3% 20%  
348 3% 17%  
349 2% 14%  
350 1.0% 12%  
351 1.1% 11%  
352 2% 10%  
353 0.7% 9%  
354 1.4% 8%  
355 0.7% 7%  
356 1.4% 6%  
357 0.6% 4%  
358 0.7% 4%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 0.2% 2%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.2% 1.3%  
365 0.1% 1.0%  
366 0.2% 0.9%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.7%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.1% 99.4%  
276 0.1% 99.3%  
277 0.3% 99.2%  
278 0.2% 98.9%  
279 0.2% 98.7%  
280 0.4% 98.5%  
281 0.4% 98%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 0.5% 97%  
286 0.5% 96%  
287 0.9% 96%  
288 1.1% 95%  
289 1.1% 94%  
290 1.0% 93%  
291 0.4% 92%  
292 0.7% 91%  
293 1.2% 90%  
294 0.5% 89%  
295 2% 89%  
296 0.4% 87%  
297 0.6% 87% Last Result
298 0.7% 86%  
299 0.8% 85%  
300 1.0% 85%  
301 1.1% 84%  
302 1.0% 82%  
303 0.7% 81%  
304 1.2% 81%  
305 1.1% 80%  
306 2% 78%  
307 2% 77%  
308 1.3% 75%  
309 1.3% 74%  
310 2% 72%  
311 2% 71%  
312 1.3% 69%  
313 1.4% 68%  
314 2% 67%  
315 0.9% 64%  
316 2% 63%  
317 1.0% 62%  
318 0.8% 61%  
319 2% 60%  
320 1.3% 58%  
321 2% 57%  
322 2% 54%  
323 1.3% 53%  
324 2% 51%  
325 1.0% 50% Median
326 1.2% 49% Majority
327 2% 47%  
328 3% 45%  
329 2% 42%  
330 1.4% 40%  
331 2% 39%  
332 2% 37%  
333 2% 35%  
334 2% 33%  
335 1.0% 31%  
336 2% 30%  
337 2% 28%  
338 1.1% 27%  
339 2% 25%  
340 2% 24%  
341 2% 21%  
342 3% 19%  
343 3% 16%  
344 2% 14%  
345 1.0% 12%  
346 1.0% 11%  
347 1.3% 10%  
348 0.7% 8%  
349 1.2% 8%  
350 0.6% 6%  
351 1.5% 6%  
352 0.6% 4%  
353 0.6% 4%  
354 0.6% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.2% 2%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.3% 2%  
359 0.3% 1.3%  
360 0.2% 1.0%  
361 0.2% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.7%  
363 0.2% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.2% 99.2%  
264 0.1% 99.1%  
265 0.4% 99.0%  
266 0.5% 98.6%  
267 0.3% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.7% 97%  
272 0.9% 96%  
273 1.2% 95%  
274 0.6% 94%  
275 1.3% 93%  
276 1.0% 92%  
277 1.4% 91%  
278 1.2% 90%  
279 1.3% 88%  
280 1.4% 87%  
281 2% 86%  
282 3% 83%  
283 2% 80%  
284 3% 78%  
285 2% 75%  
286 2% 74%  
287 2% 72%  
288 2% 71%  
289 1.2% 69%  
290 1.3% 68%  
291 3% 67%  
292 2% 64%  
293 2% 62%  
294 0.9% 60%  
295 2% 59%  
296 2% 57%  
297 3% 55%  
298 1.3% 52%  
299 1.0% 51% Median
300 2% 50%  
301 0.9% 47%  
302 1.0% 47%  
303 3% 46%  
304 2% 42%  
305 0.9% 40%  
306 1.0% 39%  
307 0.8% 38%  
308 1.4% 38%  
309 2% 36%  
310 2% 34%  
311 1.3% 33%  
312 1.4% 32%  
313 2% 30%  
314 3% 29%  
315 0.9% 26%  
316 1.4% 25%  
317 1.1% 24%  
318 1.4% 23%  
319 1.4% 21%  
320 0.7% 20%  
321 1.1% 19%  
322 1.0% 18%  
323 1.3% 17%  
324 0.9% 16%  
325 0.6% 15%  
326 0.9% 14% Majority
327 0.6% 13%  
328 0.5% 13%  
329 1.0% 12% Last Result
330 0.9% 11%  
331 1.4% 10%  
332 0.4% 9%  
333 0.7% 9%  
334 0.9% 8%  
335 1.0% 7%  
336 1.0% 6%  
337 0.8% 5%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.2% 3%  
341 0.3% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.4%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0.2% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.7%  
251 0.2% 99.6%  
252 0.2% 99.4%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.3% 99.0%  
255 0.4% 98.7%  
256 0.3% 98%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.4% 98%  
259 0.4% 97%  
260 0.6% 97%  
261 1.1% 96%  
262 1.1% 95%  
263 1.2% 94%  
264 0.6% 93%  
265 1.1% 92%  
266 0.8% 91%  
267 0.5% 90%  
268 0.5% 90%  
269 0.2% 89%  
270 0.7% 89%  
271 0.4% 88%  
272 0.5% 88%  
273 0.7% 87%  
274 1.2% 87%  
275 0.5% 86%  
276 0.7% 85%  
277 1.1% 84%  
278 1.3% 83% Last Result
279 2% 82%  
280 2% 80%  
281 2% 78%  
282 1.1% 76%  
283 2% 75%  
284 1.5% 74%  
285 1.0% 72%  
286 0.7% 71%  
287 0.4% 70%  
288 0.9% 70%  
289 0.7% 69%  
290 1.3% 68%  
291 1.0% 67%  
292 1.4% 66%  
293 2% 65%  
294 1.3% 63%  
295 1.3% 61%  
296 2% 60%  
297 1.4% 58%  
298 1.2% 57%  
299 4% 56%  
300 3% 52% Median
301 2% 49%  
302 2% 47%  
303 1.2% 44%  
304 3% 43%  
305 1.3% 40%  
306 0.9% 39%  
307 1.2% 38%  
308 0.7% 37%  
309 0.6% 36%  
310 2% 36%  
311 1.0% 33%  
312 2% 32%  
313 4% 30%  
314 1.4% 27%  
315 2% 25%  
316 2% 23%  
317 2% 21%  
318 3% 20%  
319 3% 17%  
320 1.4% 13%  
321 1.3% 12%  
322 1.0% 11%  
323 0.8% 10%  
324 0.9% 9%  
325 1.5% 8%  
326 1.1% 7% Majority
327 1.1% 6%  
328 1.1% 5%  
329 0.4% 3%  
330 0.4% 3%  
331 0.4% 3%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.2% 2%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.2% 1.3%  
337 0.2% 1.1%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.2% 99.7%  
243 0.1% 99.6%  
244 0.1% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.3%  
246 0.3% 99.2%  
247 0.2% 98.9%  
248 0.3% 98.7%  
249 0.2% 98%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.3% 98%  
252 0.3% 98%  
253 0.6% 97%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 0.7% 96%  
256 1.0% 95%  
257 1.1% 94%  
258 2% 93%  
259 1.0% 91%  
260 1.4% 90%  
261 0.7% 89%  
262 3% 88%  
263 2% 86%  
264 1.2% 83%  
265 1.5% 82%  
266 2% 81%  
267 2% 79%  
268 2% 77%  
269 2% 76%  
270 3% 74%  
271 1.0% 71%  
272 1.4% 70%  
273 3% 69%  
274 1.1% 66%  
275 1.1% 65%  
276 2% 64%  
277 0.9% 62%  
278 4% 61%  
279 1.2% 57%  
280 1.0% 56%  
281 2% 55%  
282 3% 53% Median
283 2% 50%  
284 2% 47%  
285 1.0% 46%  
286 1.1% 45%  
287 1.0% 44%  
288 1.0% 43%  
289 0.8% 42%  
290 2% 41%  
291 2% 39%  
292 2% 37%  
293 0.9% 35%  
294 2% 34%  
295 1.2% 33%  
296 0.7% 32%  
297 2% 31%  
298 1.2% 29%  
299 1.5% 28%  
300 1.2% 27%  
301 1.2% 25%  
302 1.4% 24%  
303 2% 23%  
304 1.1% 21%  
305 1.1% 20%  
306 0.8% 18%  
307 1.2% 18%  
308 0.5% 16%  
309 0.6% 16%  
310 0.6% 15%  
311 0.5% 15%  
312 0.9% 14%  
313 1.1% 13%  
314 0.7% 12%  
315 0.8% 11%  
316 0.9% 11%  
317 0.7% 10%  
318 0.6% 9%  
319 0.9% 8%  
320 0.5% 8%  
321 0.8% 7% Last Result
322 1.0% 6%  
323 1.0% 5%  
324 0.4% 4%  
325 0.5% 4%  
326 0.6% 3% Majority
327 0.3% 3%  
328 0.4% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.2% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.5%  
332 0.3% 1.3%  
333 0.1% 1.0%  
334 0.1% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.8%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.7%  
243 0% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0.2% 99.5%  
246 0.2% 99.4%  
247 0.2% 99.1%  
248 0.2% 98.9%  
249 0.2% 98.8%  
250 0.6% 98.5%  
251 0.4% 98%  
252 0.4% 98%  
253 0.4% 97%  
254 0.5% 97%  
255 0.6% 96%  
256 0.9% 96%  
257 1.1% 95%  
258 1.3% 94%  
259 0.6% 92%  
260 0.9% 92%  
261 0.7% 91%  
262 0.5% 90%  
263 0.9% 90%  
264 0.3% 89%  
265 0.7% 88%  
266 0.4% 88%  
267 0.6% 87%  
268 0.5% 87%  
269 1.3% 86%  
270 0.4% 85%  
271 0.9% 84%  
272 0.9% 83%  
273 2% 83%  
274 2% 81% Last Result
275 2% 79%  
276 1.1% 77%  
277 0.8% 76%  
278 1.4% 75%  
279 2% 73%  
280 1.4% 72%  
281 0.6% 70%  
282 0.7% 70%  
283 0.9% 69%  
284 0.8% 68%  
285 2% 67%  
286 0.9% 66%  
287 2% 65%  
288 2% 63%  
289 2% 61%  
290 0.8% 59%  
291 1.5% 58%  
292 1.2% 57%  
293 1.2% 56%  
294 4% 55%  
295 2% 51% Median
296 3% 49%  
297 2% 46%  
298 1.1% 44%  
299 3% 43%  
300 1.4% 40%  
301 0.9% 39%  
302 2% 38%  
303 0.9% 36%  
304 0.9% 35%  
305 2% 34%  
306 1.0% 32%  
307 2% 31%  
308 3% 29%  
309 1.4% 26%  
310 2% 25%  
311 2% 23%  
312 2% 20%  
313 3% 19%  
314 2% 16%  
315 2% 14%  
316 1.4% 12%  
317 1.2% 11%  
318 0.9% 10%  
319 0.9% 9%  
320 1.5% 8%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 0.9% 5%  
323 1.0% 4%  
324 0.5% 3%  
325 0.3% 3%  
326 0.5% 3% Majority
327 0.2% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.2% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.3%  
332 0.1% 1.1%  
333 0.3% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.5%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.2% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.2%  
242 0.2% 98.9%  
243 0.2% 98.7%  
244 0.2% 98%  
245 0.4% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.4% 98%  
248 0.6% 97%  
249 0.8% 97%  
250 0.7% 96%  
251 1.2% 95%  
252 1.0% 94%  
253 1.4% 93%  
254 1.0% 91%  
255 2% 90%  
256 0.8% 89%  
257 2% 88%  
258 3% 86%  
259 2% 83%  
260 2% 81%  
261 0.5% 79%  
262 2% 79%  
263 2% 77%  
264 1.3% 75%  
265 3% 74%  
266 1.4% 71%  
267 2% 69%  
268 2% 67%  
269 1.3% 65%  
270 0.9% 64%  
271 1.5% 63%  
272 1.0% 61%  
273 4% 60%  
274 1.0% 56%  
275 2% 55%  
276 3% 54%  
277 3% 51% Median
278 1.0% 48%  
279 2% 47%  
280 0.7% 45%  
281 1.2% 45%  
282 2% 43%  
283 1.3% 42%  
284 0.8% 40%  
285 2% 39%  
286 1.1% 38%  
287 2% 36%  
288 0.8% 34%  
289 1.4% 33%  
290 0.9% 32%  
291 1.0% 31%  
292 1.4% 30%  
293 0.9% 29%  
294 2% 28%  
295 2% 26%  
296 1.3% 24%  
297 1.1% 23%  
298 3% 22%  
299 0.8% 19%  
300 0.8% 19%  
301 0.7% 18%  
302 1.3% 17%  
303 0.3% 16%  
304 0.7% 15%  
305 0.6% 15%  
306 0.7% 14%  
307 0.5% 13%  
308 1.3% 13%  
309 0.7% 12%  
310 0.8% 11%  
311 1.0% 10%  
312 0.7% 9%  
313 0.5% 8%  
314 1.0% 8%  
315 0.4% 7%  
316 0.6% 7%  
317 1.2% 6% Last Result
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.3% 4%  
320 0.3% 3%  
321 0.5% 3%  
322 0.3% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.1% 1.5%  
326 0.2% 1.4% Majority
327 0.3% 1.2%  
328 0.2% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.7%  
330 0.1% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.1% 99.5%  
234 0.3% 99.4%  
235 0.1% 99.1%  
236 0.4% 99.0%  
237 0.1% 98.7%  
238 0.1% 98.6%  
239 0.1% 98%  
240 1.0% 98%  
241 1.0% 97%  
242 1.4% 96%  
243 2% 95%  
244 0.6% 93%  
245 0.1% 92%  
246 0.5% 92%  
247 0.7% 91%  
248 0.8% 91%  
249 0.5% 90%  
250 0.5% 89%  
251 2% 89%  
252 0.8% 87%  
253 0.8% 86%  
254 1.2% 85%  
255 0.4% 84%  
256 1.0% 84%  
257 0.3% 83%  
258 0.2% 83%  
259 4% 82%  
260 1.2% 79%  
261 0.5% 78%  
262 0.7% 77%  
263 1.2% 77%  
264 2% 75%  
265 4% 74%  
266 2% 70% Last Result
267 0.3% 68%  
268 1.2% 68%  
269 2% 66%  
270 1.2% 64%  
271 0.4% 63%  
272 0.1% 63%  
273 0.5% 63%  
274 5% 62%  
275 4% 57%  
276 1.0% 54%  
277 0.8% 53%  
278 2% 52% Median
279 2% 50%  
280 3% 49%  
281 0.8% 46%  
282 0.7% 45%  
283 4% 44%  
284 1.0% 40%  
285 0.7% 39%  
286 2% 39%  
287 2% 36%  
288 3% 35%  
289 2% 31%  
290 0.7% 29%  
291 0.7% 28%  
292 2% 28%  
293 2% 25%  
294 3% 23%  
295 3% 21%  
296 3% 18%  
297 2% 15%  
298 3% 13%  
299 0.8% 11%  
300 1.1% 10%  
301 2% 9%  
302 1.3% 7%  
303 0.2% 5%  
304 0.5% 5%  
305 0.5% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.5% 3%  
308 0.2% 3%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.3% 2%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.3% 1.3%  
313 0.1% 1.0%  
314 0.2% 0.9%  
315 0.2% 0.7%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.6%  
227 0.1% 99.4%  
228 0.1% 99.3%  
229 0.2% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 99.0%  
231 0.4% 98.9%  
232 0.4% 98.6%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.4% 98%  
235 0.9% 97%  
236 0.9% 97%  
237 1.2% 96%  
238 2% 94%  
239 0.5% 92%  
240 0.6% 92%  
241 0.4% 91%  
242 0.8% 91%  
243 0.7% 90%  
244 0.5% 89%  
245 0.6% 89%  
246 1.3% 88%  
247 1.5% 87%  
248 0.7% 85%  
249 0.7% 85%  
250 0.7% 84%  
251 1.0% 83%  
252 0.6% 82%  
253 0.2% 82%  
254 3% 81%  
255 1.1% 78%  
256 0.6% 77%  
257 2% 77%  
258 1.4% 75%  
259 2% 74%  
260 3% 72%  
261 2% 69%  
262 0.7% 67% Last Result
263 2% 67%  
264 0.8% 65%  
265 1.3% 64%  
266 2% 63%  
267 0.6% 61%  
268 0.7% 61%  
269 3% 60%  
270 3% 57%  
271 2% 54%  
272 0.8% 52%  
273 2% 51% Median
274 1.4% 49%  
275 3% 48%  
276 0.4% 45%  
277 0.6% 44%  
278 4% 44%  
279 1.0% 40%  
280 0.9% 39%  
281 3% 38%  
282 1.2% 35%  
283 3% 34%  
284 2% 31%  
285 0.8% 28%  
286 1.0% 28%  
287 2% 27%  
288 3% 25%  
289 2% 22%  
290 3% 20%  
291 2% 17%  
292 2% 15%  
293 3% 13%  
294 1.1% 10%  
295 0.9% 9%  
296 2% 8%  
297 1.3% 7%  
298 0.3% 5%  
299 0.4% 5%  
300 0.5% 5%  
301 1.0% 4%  
302 0.5% 3%  
303 0.2% 3%  
304 0.4% 2%  
305 0.2% 2%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.4% 1.3%  
308 0.1% 1.0%  
309 0.2% 0.9%  
310 0.1% 0.7%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.2% 0.4%  
313 0% 0.3%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations