Opinion Poll by Populus, 10–11 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 40.0% 40.8% 39.4–42.2% 39.0–42.6% 38.7–43.0% 38.0–43.7%
Conservative Party 42.4% 37.8% 36.4–39.2% 36.0–39.6% 35.7–39.9% 35.0–40.6%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.1% 6.4–7.9% 6.2–8.2% 6.1–8.4% 5.8–8.8%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 6.1% 5.5–6.9% 5.3–7.1% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.7%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party 262 304 279–319 275–327 271–333 259–342
Conservative Party 317 274 258–291 256–300 253–305 246–315
Liberal Democrats 12 15 11–16 8–19 7–19 5–23
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 34 16–50 12–53 7–54 4–55
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 4–6 4–8 3–8

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
263 0% 99.1%  
264 0% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.5% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 1.2% 98%  
272 0.4% 97%  
273 0.4% 96%  
274 0.1% 96%  
275 1.4% 96%  
276 0.1% 94%  
277 3% 94%  
278 0.1% 91%  
279 1.5% 91%  
280 3% 90%  
281 0.3% 86%  
282 0.3% 86%  
283 0.4% 86%  
284 0.4% 85%  
285 0.9% 85%  
286 0.8% 84%  
287 0.5% 83%  
288 0.5% 83%  
289 2% 82%  
290 1.3% 80%  
291 1.1% 79%  
292 3% 78%  
293 1.1% 75%  
294 3% 74%  
295 0.6% 70%  
296 2% 70%  
297 1.4% 68%  
298 1.4% 67%  
299 3% 65%  
300 4% 62%  
301 5% 58%  
302 1.0% 53%  
303 2% 52%  
304 5% 51% Median
305 0.6% 46%  
306 1.2% 45%  
307 4% 44%  
308 1.4% 40%  
309 13% 39%  
310 1.1% 25%  
311 0.7% 24%  
312 0.7% 24%  
313 3% 23%  
314 0.4% 20%  
315 0.2% 20%  
316 1.1% 19%  
317 0.7% 18%  
318 3% 17%  
319 4% 14%  
320 0.3% 10%  
321 1.0% 10%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0.2% 8%  
324 1.4% 8%  
325 0.4% 7%  
326 0.9% 6% Majority
327 1.3% 5%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 0.2% 4%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.5% 1.3%  
337 0% 0.8%  
338 0% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0% 0.6%  
342 0.4% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.6% 99.1%  
250 0.3% 98.5%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 1.3% 97%  
256 3% 95%  
257 0.5% 92%  
258 4% 92%  
259 0.9% 88%  
260 1.2% 87%  
261 2% 86%  
262 4% 84%  
263 1.1% 81%  
264 3% 79%  
265 0.5% 77%  
266 2% 76%  
267 4% 74%  
268 1.0% 70%  
269 0.6% 69%  
270 1.5% 69%  
271 4% 67%  
272 4% 63%  
273 5% 60%  
274 6% 55% Median
275 5% 49%  
276 9% 44%  
277 0.4% 34%  
278 1.2% 34%  
279 0.6% 33%  
280 0.3% 32%  
281 7% 32%  
282 1.0% 25%  
283 0.7% 24%  
284 2% 23%  
285 0.4% 22%  
286 3% 21%  
287 0.4% 19%  
288 1.3% 18%  
289 3% 17%  
290 2% 14%  
291 3% 12%  
292 0.5% 9%  
293 0.7% 9%  
294 0.5% 8%  
295 0% 8%  
296 0.1% 7%  
297 0.4% 7%  
298 0.1% 7%  
299 0.5% 7%  
300 3% 6%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.5% 3%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.4%  
310 0.2% 1.1%  
311 0% 0.9%  
312 0.2% 0.9%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5% Last Result
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0.2% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.1% 99.8%  
5 0.8% 99.7%  
6 0.9% 98.9%  
7 0.5% 98%  
8 5% 97%  
9 1.4% 93%  
10 0.9% 91%  
11 1.5% 90%  
12 8% 89% Last Result
13 8% 81%  
14 21% 72%  
15 20% 51% Median
16 22% 32%  
17 2% 10%  
18 3% 8%  
19 3% 5%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.2% 1.1%  
22 0.3% 0.9%  
23 0.3% 0.6%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 1.1% 99.7%  
5 0.1% 98.6%  
6 0.3% 98%  
7 1.4% 98%  
8 0.4% 97%  
9 0.5% 96%  
10 0.1% 96%  
11 0.7% 96%  
12 0.4% 95%  
13 3% 95%  
14 0.5% 92%  
15 0% 92%  
16 5% 92%  
17 0.2% 87%  
18 0.3% 87%  
19 0.6% 86%  
20 0.8% 86%  
21 0.2% 85%  
22 3% 85%  
23 0.6% 81%  
24 0.2% 81%  
25 7% 80%  
26 2% 73%  
27 0.5% 71%  
28 5% 71%  
29 8% 66%  
30 4% 58%  
31 0.4% 54%  
32 1.0% 53%  
33 0.3% 52%  
34 3% 52% Median
35 1.5% 49% Last Result
36 8% 47%  
37 0.5% 40%  
38 0.8% 39%  
39 0.9% 38%  
40 2% 37%  
41 1.2% 35%  
42 1.0% 34%  
43 0.5% 33%  
44 3% 33%  
45 4% 30%  
46 3% 26%  
47 5% 22%  
48 2% 17%  
49 4% 15%  
50 3% 11%  
51 1.2% 8%  
52 1.2% 7%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 0.8%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.9%  
4 17% 99.4% Last Result
5 75% 82% Median
6 3% 7%  
7 0.3% 4%  
8 4% 4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 356 97% 339–372 330–374 325–377 315–384
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 351 94% 334–367 325–369 321–372 310–379
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 341 88% 325–357 318–360 313–362 301–368
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 336 82% 320–352 313–355 307–358 295–363
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 323 44% 298–340 294–347 288–353 276–363
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 318 25% 293–335 289–343 283–348 272–358
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 312 20% 295–337 287–341 282–347 272–358
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 307 16% 290–332 283–336 277–342 267–354
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 309 10% 284–324 280–332 276–338 264–347
Labour Party 262 304 6% 279–319 275–327 271–333 259–342
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 289 0.8% 273–305 270–312 268–317 262–329
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 279 0.4% 263–296 261–305 258–309 251–320
Conservative Party 317 274 0.1% 258–291 256–300 253–305 246–315

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.8%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.2% 99.8%  
309 0% 99.6%  
310 0% 99.6%  
311 0% 99.6%  
312 0% 99.6%  
313 0% 99.5% Last Result
314 0% 99.5%  
315 0.1% 99.5%  
316 0% 99.4%  
317 0.1% 99.4%  
318 0.2% 99.3%  
319 0% 99.1%  
320 0.2% 99.1%  
321 0.3% 98.9%  
322 0.4% 98.6%  
323 0% 98%  
324 0.3% 98%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.1% 97% Majority
327 0.3% 97%  
328 0.1% 97%  
329 0.1% 97%  
330 3% 97%  
331 0.5% 94%  
332 0.1% 93%  
333 0.4% 93%  
334 0.1% 93%  
335 0% 93%  
336 0.5% 92%  
337 0.7% 92%  
338 0.5% 91%  
339 3% 91%  
340 2% 88%  
341 3% 86%  
342 1.3% 83%  
343 0.4% 82%  
344 3% 81%  
345 0.4% 79%  
346 2% 78%  
347 0.7% 77%  
348 1.0% 76%  
349 7% 75%  
350 0.3% 68%  
351 0.6% 68%  
352 1.2% 67%  
353 0.4% 66%  
354 9% 66%  
355 5% 56%  
356 6% 51%  
357 5% 45%  
358 3% 40% Median
359 4% 37%  
360 1.5% 33%  
361 0.6% 31%  
362 1.0% 31%  
363 4% 30%  
364 2% 26%  
365 0.5% 24%  
366 3% 23%  
367 1.1% 21%  
368 4% 19%  
369 2% 16%  
370 1.2% 14%  
371 0.9% 13%  
372 4% 12%  
373 0.5% 8%  
374 3% 8%  
375 1.3% 5%  
376 0.8% 3%  
377 0.3% 3%  
378 0.5% 2%  
379 0.2% 2%  
380 0.3% 2%  
381 0.6% 1.5%  
382 0.1% 0.9%  
383 0.3% 0.8%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 99.9%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.2% 99.8%  
304 0% 99.6%  
305 0% 99.6%  
306 0% 99.6%  
307 0% 99.6%  
308 0% 99.5%  
309 0% 99.5% Last Result
310 0.1% 99.5%  
311 0.1% 99.4%  
312 0.1% 99.3%  
313 0.1% 99.3%  
314 0.1% 99.2%  
315 0.1% 99.1%  
316 0.7% 99.0%  
317 0% 98%  
318 0.1% 98%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.1% 98%  
321 0.6% 98%  
322 0.3% 97%  
323 0.1% 97%  
324 0.2% 97%  
325 3% 97%  
326 0.5% 94% Majority
327 0.1% 93%  
328 0.4% 93%  
329 0.4% 93%  
330 0% 92%  
331 0.5% 92%  
332 0.5% 92%  
333 0.5% 91%  
334 3% 91%  
335 2% 88%  
336 4% 86%  
337 0.3% 82%  
338 0.6% 82%  
339 2% 81%  
340 2% 79%  
341 0.5% 77%  
342 0.6% 77%  
343 0.8% 76%  
344 7% 75%  
345 0.5% 68%  
346 0.3% 68%  
347 0.9% 67%  
348 2% 66%  
349 8% 65%  
350 6% 57%  
351 5% 51%  
352 2% 46%  
353 7% 44% Median
354 2% 37%  
355 4% 35%  
356 0.8% 31%  
357 0.6% 30%  
358 3% 29%  
359 1.4% 26%  
360 1.1% 25%  
361 0.8% 24%  
362 4% 23%  
363 4% 19%  
364 2% 16%  
365 1.3% 14%  
366 0.7% 13%  
367 4% 12%  
368 0.5% 8%  
369 3% 8%  
370 1.4% 5%  
371 0.8% 3%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.1% 2%  
375 0.1% 2%  
376 0.7% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.3% 0.8%  
379 0% 0.5%  
380 0% 0.5%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0.1% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0% 99.8%  
297 0.2% 99.8%  
298 0% 99.6%  
299 0% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.6%  
301 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
302 0% 99.4%  
303 0.1% 99.4%  
304 0.1% 99.4%  
305 0.1% 99.2%  
306 0.2% 99.1%  
307 0% 98.9%  
308 0.2% 98.8%  
309 0.6% 98.6%  
310 0.1% 98%  
311 0.1% 98%  
312 0.3% 98%  
313 0.7% 98%  
314 0% 97%  
315 0.2% 97%  
316 0.2% 97%  
317 0.2% 96%  
318 3% 96%  
319 0.1% 93%  
320 0.3% 93%  
321 0.1% 93%  
322 0.5% 93%  
323 0.5% 92%  
324 0.3% 92%  
325 3% 91%  
326 1.0% 88% Majority
327 0.2% 87%  
328 1.0% 87%  
329 1.4% 86%  
330 2% 84%  
331 2% 83%  
332 1.0% 80%  
333 3% 79%  
334 4% 76%  
335 0.9% 72%  
336 4% 71%  
337 1.2% 68%  
338 2% 67%  
339 8% 65%  
340 6% 57%  
341 9% 51%  
342 1.4% 42%  
343 1.3% 41% Median
344 3% 39%  
345 4% 36%  
346 0.7% 33%  
347 3% 32%  
348 1.1% 29%  
349 2% 28%  
350 3% 26%  
351 1.4% 22%  
352 0.9% 21%  
353 2% 20%  
354 2% 18%  
355 0.7% 16%  
356 2% 15%  
357 4% 13%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.5% 7%  
360 3% 7%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 1.0% 3%  
363 0.7% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0.4% 2%  
366 0.5% 1.2%  
367 0.1% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0.1% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.6%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0% 99.4% Last Result
298 0% 99.4%  
299 0.1% 99.4%  
300 0.1% 99.3%  
301 0.3% 99.2%  
302 0.1% 98.9%  
303 0.2% 98.8%  
304 0.1% 98.6%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 0.1% 98%  
307 0.6% 98%  
308 0.4% 97%  
309 0.1% 97%  
310 0.2% 97%  
311 0.2% 97%  
312 0.4% 96%  
313 3% 96%  
314 0.3% 93%  
315 0.2% 93%  
316 0.2% 92%  
317 0.3% 92%  
318 0.4% 92%  
319 0.3% 92%  
320 4% 91%  
321 0.3% 87%  
322 0.2% 87%  
323 0.8% 86%  
324 3% 86%  
325 0.4% 83%  
326 2% 82% Majority
327 1.0% 80%  
328 3% 79%  
329 4% 76%  
330 0.8% 72%  
331 4% 71%  
332 0.8% 68%  
333 2% 67%  
334 8% 65%  
335 5% 56%  
336 6% 52%  
337 5% 46%  
338 2% 41% Median
339 2% 39%  
340 3% 37%  
341 2% 34%  
342 2% 31%  
343 1.2% 29%  
344 2% 28%  
345 0.6% 25%  
346 4% 25%  
347 1.0% 21%  
348 2% 20%  
349 2% 18%  
350 0.8% 16%  
351 2% 15%  
352 4% 13%  
353 2% 9%  
354 0.7% 8%  
355 3% 7%  
356 0.8% 4%  
357 0.8% 3%  
358 1.0% 3%  
359 0% 2%  
360 0.4% 2%  
361 0.4% 1.2%  
362 0.2% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0.1% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.2% 99.5%  
278 0% 99.2% Last Result
279 0.1% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.1%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0% 99.0%  
283 0.4% 99.0%  
284 0% 98.6%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.6% 98%  
288 1.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 97%  
290 0% 96%  
291 0.5% 96%  
292 0.2% 96%  
293 0.1% 96%  
294 4% 96%  
295 0.4% 91%  
296 0% 91%  
297 0.1% 91%  
298 1.1% 91%  
299 0.6% 90%  
300 4% 89%  
301 0.3% 85%  
302 0.1% 85%  
303 0.2% 85%  
304 0.4% 85%  
305 0.7% 84%  
306 0.9% 84%  
307 2% 83%  
308 0.4% 81%  
309 0.4% 81%  
310 2% 80%  
311 3% 78%  
312 6% 75%  
313 2% 69%  
314 0.9% 67%  
315 0.8% 66%  
316 0.8% 65%  
317 1.0% 64%  
318 0.1% 63%  
319 1.1% 63%  
320 4% 62%  
321 4% 58%  
322 2% 54%  
323 5% 52%  
324 2% 47% Median
325 0.8% 44%  
326 5% 44% Majority
327 4% 39%  
328 2% 35%  
329 7% 33%  
330 1.1% 26%  
331 3% 25%  
332 0.3% 22%  
333 0.5% 22%  
334 0.6% 21%  
335 0.5% 20%  
336 1.0% 20%  
337 1.3% 19%  
338 3% 18%  
339 0.3% 14%  
340 5% 14%  
341 0.4% 9%  
342 1.2% 9%  
343 0.1% 7%  
344 0.2% 7%  
345 0.7% 7%  
346 1.3% 6%  
347 0.3% 5%  
348 0.1% 5%  
349 1.0% 5%  
350 0.3% 4%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.1% 3%  
353 0.5% 3%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.1% 2%  
356 1.1% 2%  
357 0% 0.8%  
358 0% 0.8%  
359 0% 0.8%  
360 0.1% 0.8%  
361 0% 0.7%  
362 0% 0.6%  
363 0.2% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.2% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0% 99.6%  
271 0% 99.6%  
272 0.3% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.2%  
274 0.1% 99.2% Last Result
275 0.1% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.1%  
277 0.4% 99.0%  
278 0.1% 98.6%  
279 0.1% 98.6%  
280 0.1% 98.5%  
281 0.1% 98%  
282 0% 98%  
283 2% 98%  
284 0.3% 97%  
285 0.2% 96%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.2% 96%  
288 0.1% 96%  
289 4% 95%  
290 0.4% 91%  
291 0.2% 91%  
292 0% 91%  
293 1.2% 91%  
294 0.4% 89%  
295 4% 89%  
296 0.3% 85%  
297 0.3% 85%  
298 0.3% 85%  
299 0.5% 84%  
300 0.5% 84%  
301 0.7% 83%  
302 2% 83%  
303 0.5% 81%  
304 0.8% 81%  
305 3% 80%  
306 2% 77%  
307 5% 75%  
308 4% 70%  
309 0.8% 66%  
310 0.2% 65%  
311 0.9% 65%  
312 1.0% 64%  
313 0.1% 63%  
314 1.0% 63%  
315 2% 62%  
316 3% 60%  
317 5% 57%  
318 6% 52%  
319 2% 47% Median
320 0.8% 45%  
321 4% 44%  
322 5% 40%  
323 2% 35%  
324 7% 33%  
325 0.7% 26%  
326 3% 25% Majority
327 0.3% 22%  
328 0.5% 22%  
329 0.2% 21%  
330 0.2% 21%  
331 2% 21%  
332 1.4% 19%  
333 3% 18%  
334 0.2% 14%  
335 5% 14%  
336 0.5% 9%  
337 1.2% 9%  
338 0.1% 7%  
339 0.1% 7%  
340 0.6% 7%  
341 1.3% 7%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0.3% 5%  
344 1.0% 5%  
345 0.3% 4%  
346 0.6% 3%  
347 0.1% 3%  
348 0.5% 3%  
349 0.2% 2%  
350 0.1% 2%  
351 1.1% 2%  
352 0% 0.8%  
353 0% 0.8%  
354 0% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.8%  
356 0% 0.7%  
357 0% 0.6%  
358 0.2% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.2% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0.2% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.7%  
272 0.2% 99.6%  
273 0% 99.4%  
274 0% 99.4%  
275 0.1% 99.3%  
276 0% 99.2%  
277 0% 99.2%  
278 0% 99.2%  
279 1.1% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.1% 97%  
284 0.6% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 1.0% 96%  
287 0.3% 95%  
288 0.1% 95%  
289 1.3% 95%  
290 0.6% 93%  
291 0.1% 93%  
292 0.1% 93%  
293 1.2% 93%  
294 0.5% 91%  
295 5% 91%  
296 0.3% 86%  
297 3% 86%  
298 1.4% 82%  
299 2% 81%  
300 0.2% 79%  
301 0.2% 79%  
302 0.5% 79%  
303 0.3% 78%  
304 3% 78%  
305 0.7% 75%  
306 7% 74%  
307 2% 67%  
308 5% 65%  
309 4% 60%  
310 0.8% 56%  
311 2% 55%  
312 6% 53%  
313 5% 48% Median
314 3% 43%  
315 2% 40%  
316 0.9% 38%  
317 0.1% 37%  
318 1.0% 37%  
319 0.9% 36%  
320 0.3% 35%  
321 0.8% 35%  
322 4% 34%  
323 5% 30%  
324 2% 25%  
325 3% 23%  
326 0.8% 20% Majority
327 0.5% 19%  
328 2% 19%  
329 0.7% 17%  
330 0.5% 17%  
331 0.5% 16%  
332 0.3% 16%  
333 0.3% 15%  
334 0.3% 15%  
335 4% 15%  
336 0.4% 11%  
337 1.2% 11%  
338 0% 9%  
339 0.2% 9%  
340 0.4% 9%  
341 4% 9%  
342 0.1% 5%  
343 0.2% 4%  
344 0.3% 4%  
345 0.2% 4%  
346 0.3% 4%  
347 2% 3%  
348 0% 2%  
349 0.1% 2%  
350 0.1% 2%  
351 0.1% 1.5%  
352 0.1% 1.4%  
353 0.4% 1.4%  
354 0.1% 1.0%  
355 0.1% 0.9%  
356 0.1% 0.9% Last Result
357 0% 0.8%  
358 0.3% 0.8%  
359 0% 0.4%  
360 0% 0.4%  
361 0% 0.4%  
362 0% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0% 0.2%  
365 0.1% 0.2%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0.2% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.2% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.4%  
269 0% 99.4%  
270 0.1% 99.3%  
271 0% 99.2%  
272 0% 99.2%  
273 0% 99.2%  
274 1.1% 99.2%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 0.5% 98%  
278 0.1% 97%  
279 0.5% 97%  
280 0.3% 97%  
281 1.0% 96%  
282 0.1% 95%  
283 0.4% 95%  
284 1.3% 95%  
285 0.7% 94%  
286 0.2% 93%  
287 0.1% 93%  
288 1.2% 93%  
289 0.4% 91%  
290 5% 91%  
291 0.3% 86%  
292 3% 86%  
293 1.3% 82%  
294 1.0% 81%  
295 0.5% 80%  
296 0.6% 80%  
297 0.5% 79%  
298 0.3% 78%  
299 3% 78%  
300 1.1% 75%  
301 7% 74%  
302 2% 67%  
303 4% 65%  
304 4% 61%  
305 0.8% 56%  
306 2% 56%  
307 5% 53%  
308 2% 48% Median
309 4% 46%  
310 4% 42%  
311 1.1% 38%  
312 0.1% 37%  
313 1.0% 37%  
314 0.8% 36%  
315 0.9% 35%  
316 0.9% 34%  
317 2% 33%  
318 6% 31%  
319 3% 25%  
320 2% 22%  
321 0.4% 20%  
322 0.4% 19%  
323 2% 19%  
324 0.9% 17%  
325 0.7% 16%  
326 0.4% 16% Majority
327 0.2% 15%  
328 0.1% 15%  
329 0.3% 15%  
330 4% 15%  
331 0.6% 11%  
332 1.1% 10%  
333 0.1% 9%  
334 0% 9%  
335 0.4% 9%  
336 4% 9%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 0.2% 4%  
339 0.5% 4%  
340 0% 4%  
341 0.2% 4%  
342 1.2% 3%  
343 0.6% 2%  
344 0.1% 2%  
345 0.1% 2%  
346 0% 1.5%  
347 0.4% 1.4%  
348 0% 1.0%  
349 0.1% 1.0%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.9%  
352 0% 0.8% Last Result
353 0.2% 0.8%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4%  
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0.2% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
267 0.2% 99.3%  
268 0% 99.1%  
269 0% 99.1%  
270 0.1% 99.1%  
271 0.6% 99.0%  
272 0% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.4% 98%  
275 0.1% 98%  
276 1.2% 98%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.3% 96%  
279 0.2% 96%  
280 1.5% 96%  
281 0.1% 94%  
282 3% 94%  
283 0.1% 91%  
284 1.5% 91%  
285 3% 90%  
286 0.1% 86%  
287 0.3% 86%  
288 0.2% 86%  
289 0.5% 86%  
290 0.8% 85%  
291 1.1% 84%  
292 0.3% 83%  
293 0.6% 83%  
294 0.6% 82%  
295 2% 82%  
296 1.4% 80%  
297 3% 78%  
298 3% 75%  
299 1.4% 72%  
300 1.2% 71%  
301 1.5% 70%  
302 2% 68%  
303 1.2% 67%  
304 6% 66%  
305 6% 60%  
306 1.0% 54%  
307 1.2% 53%  
308 1.4% 52%  
309 5% 51% Median
310 1.0% 46%  
311 0.5% 45%  
312 4% 44%  
313 1.1% 40%  
314 13% 39%  
315 1.4% 25%  
316 0.9% 24%  
317 0.4% 23%  
318 3% 23%  
319 0.2% 20%  
320 0.5% 20%  
321 1.1% 19%  
322 0.5% 18%  
323 3% 17%  
324 5% 14%  
325 0.3% 10%  
326 0.8% 10% Majority
327 0.3% 9%  
328 0.2% 8%  
329 1.5% 8%  
330 0.6% 7%  
331 0.7% 6%  
332 1.3% 5%  
333 0.5% 4%  
334 0.3% 4%  
335 0.1% 3%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.5% 3%  
338 0.3% 3%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.6% 2%  
341 0.5% 1.3%  
342 0% 0.8%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0% 0.6%  
346 0% 0.6%  
347 0.4% 0.5%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.8%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.5%  
260 0% 99.5%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
263 0% 99.1%  
264 0% 99.1%  
265 0.1% 99.1%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.5% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 1.2% 98%  
272 0.4% 97%  
273 0.4% 96%  
274 0.1% 96%  
275 1.4% 96%  
276 0.1% 94%  
277 3% 94%  
278 0.1% 91%  
279 1.5% 91%  
280 3% 90%  
281 0.3% 86%  
282 0.3% 86%  
283 0.4% 86%  
284 0.4% 85%  
285 0.9% 85%  
286 0.8% 84%  
287 0.5% 83%  
288 0.5% 83%  
289 2% 82%  
290 1.3% 80%  
291 1.1% 79%  
292 3% 78%  
293 1.1% 75%  
294 3% 74%  
295 0.6% 70%  
296 2% 70%  
297 1.4% 68%  
298 1.4% 67%  
299 3% 65%  
300 4% 62%  
301 5% 58%  
302 1.0% 53%  
303 2% 52%  
304 5% 51% Median
305 0.6% 46%  
306 1.2% 45%  
307 4% 44%  
308 1.4% 40%  
309 13% 39%  
310 1.1% 25%  
311 0.7% 24%  
312 0.7% 24%  
313 3% 23%  
314 0.4% 20%  
315 0.2% 20%  
316 1.1% 19%  
317 0.7% 18%  
318 3% 17%  
319 4% 14%  
320 0.3% 10%  
321 1.0% 10%  
322 0.2% 9%  
323 0.2% 8%  
324 1.4% 8%  
325 0.4% 7%  
326 0.9% 6% Majority
327 1.3% 5%  
328 0.5% 4%  
329 0.2% 4%  
330 0.2% 3%  
331 0.1% 3%  
332 0.5% 3%  
333 0.3% 3%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.5% 1.3%  
337 0% 0.8%  
338 0% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0% 0.6%  
341 0% 0.6%  
342 0.4% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.7%  
261 0.1% 99.6%  
262 0.1% 99.5%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.5% 99.3%  
265 0.4% 98.8%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.7% 98%  
268 1.0% 98%  
269 0.8% 97%  
270 3% 96%  
271 0.5% 93%  
272 2% 93%  
273 4% 91%  
274 2% 87%  
275 0.7% 85%  
276 2% 84%  
277 2% 82%  
278 0.9% 80%  
279 1.4% 79%  
280 3% 78%  
281 2% 74%  
282 1.1% 72%  
283 3% 71%  
284 0.7% 68%  
285 4% 67%  
286 3% 64%  
287 1.3% 61%  
288 1.4% 59%  
289 9% 58% Median
290 6% 49%  
291 8% 43%  
292 2% 35%  
293 1.2% 33%  
294 4% 32%  
295 0.9% 29%  
296 4% 28%  
297 3% 24%  
298 1.0% 21%  
299 2% 20%  
300 2% 17%  
301 1.4% 16%  
302 1.0% 14%  
303 0.2% 13%  
304 1.0% 13%  
305 3% 12%  
306 0.3% 9%  
307 0.5% 8%  
308 0.5% 8%  
309 0.1% 7%  
310 0.3% 7%  
311 0.1% 7%  
312 3% 7%  
313 0.2% 4%  
314 0.2% 4%  
315 0.2% 3%  
316 0% 3%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.3% 2%  
319 0.1% 2%  
320 0.1% 2%  
321 0.6% 2%  
322 0.2% 1.4%  
323 0% 1.2%  
324 0.2% 1.1%  
325 0.1% 0.9%  
326 0.1% 0.8% Majority
327 0.1% 0.6%  
328 0% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0% 0.4%  
332 0% 0.4%  
333 0.2% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0% 99.6%  
251 0% 99.5%  
252 0.3% 99.5%  
253 0.2% 99.2%  
254 0.7% 99.0%  
255 0.1% 98%  
256 0.1% 98%  
257 0.5% 98%  
258 0.3% 98%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 1.4% 97%  
261 3% 95%  
262 0.5% 92%  
263 4% 92%  
264 0.7% 88%  
265 1.3% 87%  
266 2% 86%  
267 4% 84%  
268 4% 81%  
269 0.7% 77%  
270 1.1% 76%  
271 1.4% 75%  
272 3% 74%  
273 0.6% 71%  
274 0.8% 70%  
275 4% 69%  
276 2% 65%  
277 7% 63%  
278 2% 56%  
279 5% 54% Median
280 6% 49%  
281 8% 43%  
282 2% 35%  
283 0.9% 34%  
284 0.3% 33%  
285 0.5% 32%  
286 7% 32%  
287 0.8% 25%  
288 0.6% 24%  
289 0.5% 23%  
290 2% 23%  
291 2% 21%  
292 0.7% 19%  
293 0.3% 18%  
294 4% 18%  
295 2% 14%  
296 3% 12%  
297 0.5% 9%  
298 0.5% 9%  
299 0.5% 8%  
300 0% 8%  
301 0.4% 8%  
302 0.4% 7%  
303 0.1% 7%  
304 0.5% 7%  
305 3% 6%  
306 0.2% 3%  
307 0.1% 3%  
308 0.3% 3%  
309 0.6% 3%  
310 0.1% 2%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.1% 2%  
313 0% 2%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.1% 1.0%  
316 0.1% 0.9%  
317 0.1% 0.8%  
318 0.1% 0.7%  
319 0.1% 0.7%  
320 0.1% 0.6%  
321 0% 0.5% Last Result
322 0% 0.5%  
323 0% 0.5%  
324 0% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.4%  
326 0% 0.4% Majority
327 0.2% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 99.9%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.1% 99.6%  
245 0% 99.6%  
246 0.1% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.4%  
248 0.1% 99.2%  
249 0.6% 99.1%  
250 0.3% 98.5%  
251 0.2% 98%  
252 0.5% 98%  
253 0.3% 98%  
254 0.8% 97%  
255 1.3% 97%  
256 3% 95%  
257 0.5% 92%  
258 4% 92%  
259 0.9% 88%  
260 1.2% 87%  
261 2% 86%  
262 4% 84%  
263 1.1% 81%  
264 3% 79%  
265 0.5% 77%  
266 2% 76%  
267 4% 74%  
268 1.0% 70%  
269 0.6% 69%  
270 1.5% 69%  
271 4% 67%  
272 4% 63%  
273 5% 60%  
274 6% 55% Median
275 5% 49%  
276 9% 44%  
277 0.4% 34%  
278 1.2% 34%  
279 0.6% 33%  
280 0.3% 32%  
281 7% 32%  
282 1.0% 25%  
283 0.7% 24%  
284 2% 23%  
285 0.4% 22%  
286 3% 21%  
287 0.4% 19%  
288 1.3% 18%  
289 3% 17%  
290 2% 14%  
291 3% 12%  
292 0.5% 9%  
293 0.7% 9%  
294 0.5% 8%  
295 0% 8%  
296 0.1% 7%  
297 0.4% 7%  
298 0.1% 7%  
299 0.5% 7%  
300 3% 6%  
301 0.1% 3%  
302 0.1% 3%  
303 0.3% 3%  
304 0.1% 3%  
305 0.5% 3%  
306 0.3% 2%  
307 0% 2%  
308 0.4% 2%  
309 0.3% 1.4%  
310 0.2% 1.1%  
311 0% 0.9%  
312 0.2% 0.9%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0% 0.6%  
315 0.1% 0.6%  
316 0% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.5% Last Result
318 0% 0.5%  
319 0% 0.4%  
320 0% 0.4%  
321 0% 0.4%  
322 0.2% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1% Majority
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations