Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 16–17 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 41.0% 39.5–42.6% 39.0–43.0% 38.7–43.4% 37.9–44.2%
Labour Party 40.0% 39.0% 37.4–40.5% 37.0–41.0% 36.7–41.4% 35.9–42.1%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.5–8.8%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 4.3% 3.7–5.0% 3.5–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.1–5.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.7% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.4%
Green Party 1.6% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 306 282–327 276–331 270–335 262–344
Labour Party 262 257 238–281 237–286 232–291 226–298
Liberal Democrats 12 10 4–14 3–15 2–16 1–18
Scottish National Party 35 54 49–58 46–58 43–58 39–58
UK Independence Party 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Plaid Cymru 4 5 4–5 2–5 2–5 1–8

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.8%  
267 0.3% 98.6%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.5% 97%  
274 0.7% 96%  
275 0.3% 95%  
276 0.7% 95%  
277 0.8% 94%  
278 0.6% 94%  
279 0.8% 93%  
280 0.7% 92%  
281 1.0% 91%  
282 1.3% 90%  
283 1.1% 89%  
284 0.6% 88%  
285 0.9% 88%  
286 0.8% 87%  
287 1.5% 86%  
288 1.3% 84%  
289 2% 83%  
290 2% 81%  
291 3% 79%  
292 0.9% 76%  
293 0.2% 75%  
294 1.2% 75%  
295 3% 74%  
296 1.2% 71%  
297 1.3% 70%  
298 3% 69%  
299 4% 66%  
300 1.5% 62%  
301 1.1% 60%  
302 1.0% 59%  
303 5% 58%  
304 2% 54%  
305 2% 52%  
306 1.0% 50% Median
307 0.7% 49%  
308 3% 49%  
309 2% 46%  
310 3% 44%  
311 3% 41%  
312 2% 38%  
313 0.8% 36%  
314 1.0% 35%  
315 2% 34%  
316 1.1% 32%  
317 2% 31% Last Result
318 1.4% 29%  
319 3% 28%  
320 3% 24%  
321 2% 22%  
322 1.4% 20%  
323 0.8% 19%  
324 1.0% 18%  
325 3% 17%  
326 3% 14% Majority
327 3% 11%  
328 1.4% 8%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.7% 6%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.5% 4%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.4% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.2% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.2% 0.5%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.3% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.4%  
228 0.2% 99.1%  
229 0.3% 98.9%  
230 0.4% 98.6%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.7% 98%  
233 0.4% 97%  
234 0.5% 97%  
235 0.1% 96%  
236 0.5% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 3% 93%  
239 3% 90%  
240 5% 87%  
241 2% 83%  
242 0.7% 80%  
243 1.2% 80%  
244 2% 78%  
245 2% 77%  
246 1.5% 75%  
247 1.0% 73%  
248 4% 72%  
249 2% 68%  
250 2% 66%  
251 4% 64%  
252 0.7% 60%  
253 0.6% 59%  
254 0.3% 59%  
255 0.6% 59%  
256 5% 58%  
257 6% 53% Median
258 1.0% 48%  
259 1.2% 47%  
260 2% 45%  
261 4% 43%  
262 4% 40% Last Result
263 2% 35%  
264 0.8% 33%  
265 1.4% 32%  
266 4% 31%  
267 0.8% 27%  
268 0.9% 26%  
269 0.8% 25%  
270 2% 25%  
271 3% 23%  
272 2% 21%  
273 2% 18%  
274 2% 16%  
275 0.8% 15%  
276 0.7% 14%  
277 0.6% 13%  
278 0.3% 12%  
279 1.4% 12%  
280 0.7% 11%  
281 1.4% 10%  
282 0.3% 9%  
283 1.0% 8%  
284 0.8% 7%  
285 1.4% 7%  
286 0.6% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.3% 4%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.7% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.4% 1.3%  
296 0.2% 0.9%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0.2% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0.4% 99.9%  
2 4% 99.5%  
3 3% 95%  
4 8% 92%  
5 13% 84%  
6 5% 71%  
7 5% 67%  
8 5% 62%  
9 7% 57%  
10 8% 51% Median
11 19% 43%  
12 9% 24% Last Result
13 5% 15%  
14 4% 10%  
15 2% 6%  
16 2% 4%  
17 0.6% 1.4%  
18 0.4% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.4%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8% Last Result
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.7%  
38 0.1% 99.7%  
39 0.3% 99.6%  
40 0.4% 99.3%  
41 0.8% 98.9%  
42 0.3% 98%  
43 0.4% 98%  
44 0.6% 97%  
45 0.9% 97%  
46 1.0% 96%  
47 2% 95%  
48 3% 93%  
49 1.3% 90%  
50 3% 89%  
51 5% 86%  
52 5% 80%  
53 5% 75%  
54 24% 70% Median
55 23% 47%  
56 7% 24%  
57 5% 17%  
58 12% 12%  
59 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100% Last Result
1 81% 81% Median
2 0% 0%  

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 1.0% 99.7%  
2 4% 98.7%  
3 3% 94%  
4 40% 91% Last Result
5 50% 51% Median
6 0.6% 1.3%  
7 0.2% 0.7%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 363 98% 340–385 334–389 328–392 321–399
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 359 97% 336–381 330–384 324–387 317–394
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 324 48% 303–348 300–354 296–360 287–369
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 320 39% 299–344 295–351 291–356 282–364
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 316 26% 296–338 291–345 287–350 281–357
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 311 20% 291–334 286–341 283–346 276–353
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 314 27% 292–334 285–339 280–343 273–350
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 310 21% 286–331 279–335 274–339 266–348
Conservative Party 317 306 14% 282–327 276–331 270–335 262–344
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 271 0% 250–294 247–300 243–306 236–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 267 0% 245–290 242–297 238–302 232–309
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 261 0% 243–284 241–290 236–295 231–302
Labour Party 262 257 0% 238–281 237–286 232–291 226–298

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.2% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.4%  
323 0.3% 99.2%  
324 0.1% 99.0%  
325 0.4% 98.9%  
326 0.3% 98% Majority
327 0.4% 98%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 0.4% 97%  
330 0.3% 97%  
331 0.5% 97%  
332 0.5% 96%  
333 0.5% 96%  
334 0.5% 95%  
335 1.2% 95%  
336 0.4% 93%  
337 1.0% 93%  
338 0.9% 92%  
339 0.6% 91%  
340 0.7% 91%  
341 0.9% 90%  
342 0.8% 89%  
343 1.0% 88%  
344 2% 87%  
345 0.9% 86%  
346 1.0% 85%  
347 2% 84%  
348 1.5% 81%  
349 2% 80%  
350 2% 78%  
351 0.7% 76%  
352 1.0% 75%  
353 2% 74%  
354 3% 73%  
355 1.3% 70%  
356 1.2% 69% Last Result
357 3% 68%  
358 2% 64%  
359 3% 62%  
360 2% 59%  
361 0.8% 58%  
362 4% 57%  
363 3% 53%  
364 1.2% 50%  
365 1.5% 48% Median
366 2% 47%  
367 1.4% 45%  
368 3% 43%  
369 2% 40%  
370 1.3% 38%  
371 2% 37%  
372 2% 35%  
373 1.0% 33%  
374 2% 32%  
375 2% 30%  
376 2% 28%  
377 3% 26%  
378 2% 24%  
379 3% 22%  
380 1.5% 19%  
381 2% 18%  
382 2% 15%  
383 1.2% 13%  
384 0.9% 12%  
385 2% 11%  
386 2% 9%  
387 1.3% 8%  
388 0.9% 6%  
389 1.4% 5%  
390 0.9% 4%  
391 0.5% 3%  
392 0.4% 3%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.3%  
396 0.2% 1.1%  
397 0.3% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.6%  
399 0.1% 0.5%  
400 0.2% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0% 99.7%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.5%  
318 0.1% 99.4%  
319 0.2% 99.2%  
320 0.3% 99.0%  
321 0.4% 98.7%  
322 0.2% 98%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.3% 97%  
326 0.3% 97% Majority
327 0.5% 97%  
328 0.6% 96%  
329 0.3% 96%  
330 0.9% 95%  
331 0.9% 94%  
332 0.5% 93%  
333 1.3% 93%  
334 0.5% 92%  
335 0.6% 91%  
336 0.7% 91%  
337 1.2% 90%  
338 1.0% 89%  
339 1.4% 88%  
340 0.5% 86%  
341 1.0% 86%  
342 2% 85%  
343 2% 82%  
344 0.7% 81%  
345 3% 80%  
346 0.6% 76%  
347 0.8% 76%  
348 2% 75%  
349 0.9% 73%  
350 3% 72%  
351 0.9% 69%  
352 3% 69% Last Result
353 0.6% 65%  
354 5% 65%  
355 1.2% 60%  
356 2% 59%  
357 0.7% 57%  
358 5% 57%  
359 2% 51%  
360 2% 49% Median
361 2% 48%  
362 2% 46%  
363 2% 44%  
364 4% 42%  
365 0.6% 39%  
366 2% 38%  
367 2% 36%  
368 0.9% 34%  
369 3% 34%  
370 1.4% 31%  
371 2% 30%  
372 2% 28%  
373 2% 25%  
374 2% 23%  
375 2% 21%  
376 2% 19%  
377 2% 16%  
378 2% 15%  
379 0.9% 13%  
380 2% 12%  
381 2% 10%  
382 1.0% 8%  
383 1.4% 7%  
384 1.2% 6%  
385 1.1% 4%  
386 0.5% 3%  
387 0.4% 3%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.3% 1.5%  
391 0.2% 1.1%  
392 0.1% 0.9%  
393 0.3% 0.8%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0.2% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.5%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0.4% 99.1%  
291 0.2% 98.7%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.3% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.5% 97%  
298 0.4% 97%  
299 1.0% 96%  
300 0.7% 95%  
301 1.0% 94%  
302 1.3% 93%  
303 2% 92%  
304 3% 90%  
305 3% 87%  
306 0.9% 83%  
307 0.7% 83%  
308 2% 82%  
309 1.3% 80%  
310 3% 79%  
311 3% 76%  
312 2% 73%  
313 3% 71% Last Result
314 1.1% 69%  
315 2% 68%  
316 0.8% 66%  
317 1.0% 65%  
318 2% 64%  
319 3% 62%  
320 3% 60%  
321 2% 57%  
322 3% 55%  
323 0.8% 52%  
324 1.0% 51%  
325 2% 50%  
326 2% 48% Median, Majority
327 5% 47%  
328 0.9% 42%  
329 1.1% 41%  
330 1.4% 40%  
331 4% 38%  
332 3% 34%  
333 1.3% 32%  
334 1.4% 31%  
335 2% 29%  
336 2% 27%  
337 0.3% 25%  
338 0.8% 25%  
339 3% 24%  
340 2% 21%  
341 2% 19%  
342 1.4% 17%  
343 1.3% 16%  
344 0.9% 14%  
345 0.8% 14%  
346 0.7% 13%  
347 0.8% 12%  
348 2% 11%  
349 0.9% 10%  
350 0.8% 9%  
351 0.8% 8%  
352 0.4% 7%  
353 1.0% 7%  
354 0.7% 6%  
355 0.3% 5%  
356 0.6% 5%  
357 0.6% 4%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.3% 3%  
360 0.2% 3%  
361 0.4% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.2% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.2%  
366 0.1% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.9%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.2% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.4%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.0%  
287 0.2% 98.6%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.6% 97%  
293 0.4% 97%  
294 0.7% 96%  
295 0.9% 96%  
296 0.6% 95%  
297 2% 94%  
298 2% 92%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89%  
301 2% 85%  
302 0.7% 83%  
303 0.9% 82%  
304 2% 82%  
305 2% 79%  
306 2% 77%  
307 2% 75%  
308 3% 73%  
309 2% 70% Last Result
310 2% 68%  
311 1.1% 67%  
312 0.7% 66%  
313 1.5% 65%  
314 2% 63%  
315 2% 61%  
316 3% 59%  
317 3% 56%  
318 2% 53%  
319 0.6% 51%  
320 1.4% 51%  
321 2% 49% Median
322 2% 47%  
323 3% 45%  
324 0.9% 42%  
325 2% 41%  
326 2% 39% Majority
327 5% 37%  
328 1.2% 32%  
329 0.8% 31%  
330 2% 30%  
331 3% 29%  
332 0.6% 26%  
333 0.7% 25%  
334 1.2% 24%  
335 3% 23%  
336 2% 20%  
337 2% 19%  
338 0.8% 16%  
339 1.1% 15%  
340 1.0% 14%  
341 0.9% 13%  
342 0.7% 12%  
343 1.1% 12%  
344 1.2% 11%  
345 0.6% 9%  
346 1.0% 9%  
347 0.8% 8%  
348 0.8% 7%  
349 0.7% 6%  
350 0.5% 6%  
351 0.6% 5%  
352 0.5% 4%  
353 0.5% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.3% 3%  
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.3% 1.5%  
361 0.2% 1.2%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.3%  
284 0.4% 99.2%  
285 0.5% 98.7%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.6% 98%  
288 0.2% 97%  
289 0.6% 97%  
290 1.0% 96%  
291 1.1% 95%  
292 1.4% 94%  
293 0.5% 93%  
294 0.8% 92%  
295 1.2% 91%  
296 2% 90%  
297 2% 88%  
298 2% 86%  
299 2% 84%  
300 3% 82%  
301 2% 79% Last Result
302 0.9% 78%  
303 2% 77%  
304 2% 75%  
305 1.1% 73%  
306 1.4% 72%  
307 2% 70%  
308 4% 68%  
309 2% 64%  
310 2% 62%  
311 3% 61%  
312 0.8% 58%  
313 2% 57%  
314 0.9% 55%  
315 3% 54%  
316 4% 50% Median
317 0.8% 46%  
318 1.5% 45%  
319 4% 44%  
320 3% 40%  
321 3% 37%  
322 2% 35%  
323 1.1% 32%  
324 2% 31%  
325 3% 29%  
326 0.5% 26% Majority
327 0.6% 26%  
328 2% 25%  
329 1.4% 23%  
330 2% 21%  
331 3% 19%  
332 1.1% 17%  
333 0.9% 16%  
334 1.2% 15%  
335 1.1% 14%  
336 0.9% 12%  
337 0.4% 12%  
338 1.3% 11%  
339 0.5% 10%  
340 0.7% 9%  
341 1.2% 9%  
342 0.5% 7%  
343 0.5% 7%  
344 0.7% 6%  
345 0.7% 6%  
346 0.8% 5%  
347 0.4% 4%  
348 0.5% 4%  
349 0.5% 3%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0.2% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.3%  
355 0.3% 1.1%  
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.7%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.3% 99.2%  
280 0.4% 98.9%  
281 0.5% 98.5%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.4% 97%  
285 0.7% 97%  
286 1.2% 96%  
287 0.8% 95%  
288 0.8% 94%  
289 1.2% 93%  
290 1.0% 92%  
291 1.1% 91%  
292 2% 90%  
293 3% 88%  
294 2% 85%  
295 3% 83%  
296 2% 80%  
297 0.9% 78% Last Result
298 2% 77%  
299 1.5% 76%  
300 2% 74%  
301 2% 72%  
302 1.4% 71%  
303 3% 69%  
304 2% 66%  
305 3% 64%  
306 3% 62%  
307 0.8% 59%  
308 1.4% 58%  
309 2% 56%  
310 2% 54%  
311 3% 52% Median
312 4% 49%  
313 0.7% 46%  
314 3% 45%  
315 2% 42%  
316 5% 40%  
317 3% 35%  
318 0.6% 33%  
319 2% 32%  
320 2% 30%  
321 2% 28%  
322 0.7% 26%  
323 1.0% 25%  
324 3% 24%  
325 2% 22%  
326 2% 20% Majority
327 1.1% 18%  
328 2% 17%  
329 1.2% 15%  
330 0.8% 14%  
331 1.0% 13%  
332 0.9% 12%  
333 0.8% 11%  
334 0.8% 11%  
335 0.7% 10%  
336 1.1% 9%  
337 0.7% 8%  
338 0.4% 7%  
339 1.1% 7%  
340 0.5% 6%  
341 0.6% 5%  
342 0.6% 5%  
343 0.6% 4%  
344 0.4% 4%  
345 0.4% 3%  
346 0.4% 3%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.3% 1.3%  
351 0.3% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.3% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3%  
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.2% 99.4%  
275 0.2% 99.2%  
276 0.3% 99.0%  
277 0.3% 98.7%  
278 0.5% 98%  
279 0.3% 98%  
280 0.3% 98%  
281 0.6% 97%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 0.3% 96%  
284 0.7% 96%  
285 0.8% 95%  
286 0.7% 95%  
287 0.6% 94%  
288 0.6% 93%  
289 0.8% 93%  
290 1.0% 92%  
291 0.5% 91%  
292 1.4% 90%  
293 0.4% 89%  
294 0.9% 89%  
295 0.7% 88%  
296 2% 87%  
297 0.9% 85%  
298 1.0% 84%  
299 3% 83%  
300 2% 81%  
301 1.4% 79%  
302 3% 78%  
303 0.5% 75%  
304 0.6% 75%  
305 3% 74%  
306 1.4% 71%  
307 2% 70%  
308 2% 68%  
309 3% 66%  
310 3% 63%  
311 3% 60%  
312 2% 56%  
313 0.9% 55%  
314 4% 54%  
315 3% 50%  
316 0.7% 47% Median
317 2% 46%  
318 1.2% 44%  
319 2% 42%  
320 2% 40%  
321 2% 38%  
322 4% 36%  
323 2% 32%  
324 2% 30%  
325 1.1% 28%  
326 2% 27% Majority
327 1.4% 26%  
328 2% 24%  
329 2% 23% Last Result
330 2% 21%  
331 2% 19%  
332 3% 17%  
333 3% 14%  
334 2% 12%  
335 1.2% 10%  
336 0.8% 9%  
337 0.6% 8%  
338 1.4% 7%  
339 1.1% 6%  
340 1.1% 5%  
341 0.5% 4%  
342 0.3% 3%  
343 0.5% 3%  
344 0.6% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.3% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.1% 99.6%  
267 0.2% 99.5%  
268 0.2% 99.2%  
269 0.2% 99.0%  
270 0.3% 98.8%  
271 0.3% 98.6%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.3% 98%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.5% 97%  
277 0.4% 97%  
278 0.6% 96%  
279 0.6% 96%  
280 0.5% 95%  
281 0.6% 94%  
282 0.7% 94%  
283 0.8% 93%  
284 0.9% 92%  
285 0.7% 91%  
286 1.3% 91%  
287 0.8% 89%  
288 0.7% 89%  
289 0.9% 88%  
290 1.1% 87%  
291 0.9% 86%  
292 1.0% 85%  
293 2% 84%  
294 2% 82%  
295 3% 80%  
296 1.3% 77%  
297 0.8% 76%  
298 0.4% 75%  
299 3% 75%  
300 2% 72%  
301 1.0% 70%  
302 0.9% 69%  
303 5% 68%  
304 2% 63%  
305 2% 61%  
306 1.0% 59%  
307 3% 58%  
308 2% 55%  
309 2% 53%  
310 1.4% 51%  
311 0.8% 49% Median
312 2% 49%  
313 2% 47%  
314 4% 45%  
315 2% 41%  
316 2% 39%  
317 2% 37%  
318 1.0% 35%  
319 1.0% 35%  
320 2% 34%  
321 2% 32% Last Result
322 2% 30%  
323 2% 28%  
324 3% 26%  
325 3% 23%  
326 2% 21% Majority
327 0.8% 19%  
328 0.7% 18%  
329 2% 17%  
330 3% 15%  
331 3% 12%  
332 1.4% 10%  
333 2% 8%  
334 0.8% 6%  
335 0.7% 5%  
336 0.8% 5%  
337 0.4% 4%  
338 0.7% 4%  
339 0.3% 3%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.3% 1.4%  
345 0.2% 1.0%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0.1% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1%  
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0.1% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0.2% 99.4%  
264 0.2% 99.2%  
265 0.2% 99.0%  
266 0.2% 98.8%  
267 0.3% 98.6%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.2% 98%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.5% 97%  
274 0.7% 96%  
275 0.3% 95%  
276 0.7% 95%  
277 0.8% 94%  
278 0.6% 94%  
279 0.8% 93%  
280 0.7% 92%  
281 1.0% 91%  
282 1.3% 90%  
283 1.1% 89%  
284 0.6% 88%  
285 0.9% 88%  
286 0.8% 87%  
287 1.5% 86%  
288 1.3% 84%  
289 2% 83%  
290 2% 81%  
291 3% 79%  
292 0.9% 76%  
293 0.2% 75%  
294 1.2% 75%  
295 3% 74%  
296 1.2% 71%  
297 1.3% 70%  
298 3% 69%  
299 4% 66%  
300 1.5% 62%  
301 1.1% 60%  
302 1.0% 59%  
303 5% 58%  
304 2% 54%  
305 2% 52%  
306 1.0% 50% Median
307 0.7% 49%  
308 3% 49%  
309 2% 46%  
310 3% 44%  
311 3% 41%  
312 2% 38%  
313 0.8% 36%  
314 1.0% 35%  
315 2% 34%  
316 1.1% 32%  
317 2% 31% Last Result
318 1.4% 29%  
319 3% 28%  
320 3% 24%  
321 2% 22%  
322 1.4% 20%  
323 0.8% 19%  
324 1.0% 18%  
325 3% 17%  
326 3% 14% Majority
327 3% 11%  
328 1.4% 8%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.7% 6%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.5% 4%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.4% 1.4%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.2% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.6%  
344 0.2% 0.5%  
345 0% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.6%  
237 0.1% 99.5%  
238 0.3% 99.3%  
239 0.1% 99.1%  
240 0.4% 99.0%  
241 0.6% 98.6%  
242 0.2% 98%  
243 0.4% 98%  
244 0.5% 97%  
245 0.8% 97%  
246 1.0% 96%  
247 1.4% 95%  
248 1.4% 94%  
249 2% 92%  
250 2% 90%  
251 1.1% 89%  
252 2% 88%  
253 1.2% 86%  
254 3% 84%  
255 2% 82%  
256 3% 80%  
257 1.5% 77%  
258 3% 75%  
259 2% 72%  
260 1.3% 71%  
261 3% 69%  
262 0.7% 67%  
263 1.5% 66%  
264 2% 64%  
265 0.8% 62%  
266 3% 62%  
267 3% 58%  
268 1.4% 56%  
269 2% 54%  
270 1.3% 53%  
271 2% 51%  
272 5% 49% Median
273 0.8% 44%  
274 2% 43%  
275 1.1% 41%  
276 5% 40%  
277 0.4% 35%  
278 3% 35% Last Result
279 1.4% 32%  
280 3% 31%  
281 1.0% 28%  
282 1.4% 27%  
283 1.4% 26%  
284 0.6% 24%  
285 3% 24%  
286 0.7% 20%  
287 2% 19%  
288 2% 18%  
289 1.3% 16%  
290 0.5% 14%  
291 1.4% 14%  
292 0.7% 13%  
293 1.4% 12%  
294 0.9% 10%  
295 0.6% 10%  
296 0.5% 9%  
297 1.1% 8%  
298 0.7% 7%  
299 0.8% 7%  
300 1.0% 6%  
301 0.3% 5%  
302 0.6% 5%  
303 0.5% 4%  
304 0.3% 3%  
305 0.3% 3%  
306 0.6% 3%  
307 0.4% 2%  
308 0.3% 2%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.2% 1.3%  
311 0.2% 1.1%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.1% 0.7%  
314 0.2% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.4%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.2% 99.4%  
234 0.3% 99.3%  
235 0.2% 99.0%  
236 0.5% 98.8%  
237 0.4% 98%  
238 0.4% 98%  
239 0.4% 97%  
240 0.7% 97%  
241 1.2% 96%  
242 1.0% 95%  
243 1.4% 94%  
244 2% 93%  
245 2% 91%  
246 1.2% 89%  
247 1.3% 88%  
248 2% 87%  
249 3% 85%  
250 2% 82%  
251 2% 81%  
252 2% 79%  
253 3% 77%  
254 3% 74%  
255 2% 72%  
256 2% 70%  
257 1.0% 68%  
258 2% 67%  
259 2% 65%  
260 1.4% 63%  
261 1.2% 62%  
262 4% 61%  
263 1.2% 57%  
264 2% 55%  
265 2% 54%  
266 1.0% 52%  
267 3% 51% Median
268 4% 48%  
269 0.8% 43%  
270 2% 43%  
271 3% 41%  
272 2% 38%  
273 3% 36%  
274 1.4% 33% Last Result
275 1.4% 31%  
276 3% 30%  
277 1.3% 28%  
278 1.2% 26%  
279 0.9% 25%  
280 2% 24%  
281 2% 22%  
282 2% 20%  
283 2% 19%  
284 1.3% 17%  
285 1.0% 15%  
286 1.3% 14%  
287 0.9% 13%  
288 1.1% 12%  
289 0.8% 11%  
290 0.9% 10%  
291 0.6% 9%  
292 0.8% 9%  
293 1.0% 8%  
294 0.4% 7%  
295 1.1% 7%  
296 0.5% 5%  
297 0.6% 5%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.5% 4%  
300 0.3% 3%  
301 0.3% 3%  
302 0.5% 3%  
303 0.4% 2%  
304 0.3% 2%  
305 0.4% 2%  
306 0.2% 1.2%  
307 0.2% 1.1%  
308 0.2% 0.8%  
309 0.1% 0.6%  
310 0.1% 0.5%  
311 0.1% 0.4%  
312 0.1% 0.3%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.2% 99.8%  
231 0.4% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.2%  
233 0.3% 99.0%  
234 0.3% 98.7%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.9% 98%  
237 0.3% 97%  
238 0.7% 97%  
239 0.1% 96%  
240 0.1% 96%  
241 0.9% 96%  
242 4% 95%  
243 3% 91%  
244 4% 89%  
245 5% 85%  
246 0.5% 80%  
247 0.1% 80%  
248 2% 79%  
249 2% 77%  
250 2% 76%  
251 1.2% 74%  
252 1.2% 72%  
253 5% 71%  
254 2% 66%  
255 1.2% 64%  
256 4% 63%  
257 0.2% 59%  
258 0.1% 59%  
259 0.5% 59%  
260 2% 58%  
261 9% 56%  
262 0.6% 48% Median
263 1.0% 47%  
264 1.4% 46%  
265 4% 44%  
266 2% 40% Last Result
267 5% 38%  
268 1.3% 33%  
269 0.3% 32%  
270 3% 32%  
271 2% 28%  
272 0.8% 26%  
273 0.4% 26%  
274 2% 25%  
275 0.6% 23%  
276 4% 23%  
277 2% 19%  
278 0.8% 16%  
279 1.5% 16%  
280 1.0% 14%  
281 0.6% 13%  
282 0.4% 13%  
283 0.5% 12%  
284 2% 12%  
285 1.0% 10%  
286 0.7% 9%  
287 0.5% 8%  
288 1.0% 8%  
289 1.2% 7%  
290 1.0% 6%  
291 0.6% 5%  
292 0.1% 4%  
293 0.3% 4%  
294 0.4% 3%  
295 0.6% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.4% 2%  
298 0.3% 2%  
299 0.4% 1.3%  
300 0.2% 0.9%  
301 0.1% 0.7%  
302 0.2% 0.6%  
303 0.1% 0.4%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0.1%  
311 0% 0%  

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.3% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.4%  
228 0.2% 99.1%  
229 0.3% 98.9%  
230 0.4% 98.6%  
231 0.5% 98%  
232 0.7% 98%  
233 0.4% 97%  
234 0.5% 97%  
235 0.1% 96%  
236 0.5% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 3% 93%  
239 3% 90%  
240 5% 87%  
241 2% 83%  
242 0.7% 80%  
243 1.2% 80%  
244 2% 78%  
245 2% 77%  
246 1.5% 75%  
247 1.0% 73%  
248 4% 72%  
249 2% 68%  
250 2% 66%  
251 4% 64%  
252 0.7% 60%  
253 0.6% 59%  
254 0.3% 59%  
255 0.6% 59%  
256 5% 58%  
257 6% 53% Median
258 1.0% 48%  
259 1.2% 47%  
260 2% 45%  
261 4% 43%  
262 4% 40% Last Result
263 2% 35%  
264 0.8% 33%  
265 1.4% 32%  
266 4% 31%  
267 0.8% 27%  
268 0.9% 26%  
269 0.8% 25%  
270 2% 25%  
271 3% 23%  
272 2% 21%  
273 2% 18%  
274 2% 16%  
275 0.8% 15%  
276 0.7% 14%  
277 0.6% 13%  
278 0.3% 12%  
279 1.4% 12%  
280 0.7% 11%  
281 1.4% 10%  
282 0.3% 9%  
283 1.0% 8%  
284 0.8% 7%  
285 1.4% 7%  
286 0.6% 5%  
287 0.6% 5%  
288 0.3% 4%  
289 0.2% 4%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.7% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.3% 2%  
294 0.3% 2%  
295 0.4% 1.3%  
296 0.2% 0.9%  
297 0.1% 0.7%  
298 0.2% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations