Opinion Poll by YouGov for People’s Vote, 21 December 2018–4 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party |
42.4% |
40.8% |
40.4–41.2% |
40.3–41.3% |
40.2–41.4% |
40.0–41.6% |
Labour Party |
40.0% |
34.7% |
34.3–35.1% |
34.2–35.2% |
34.1–35.3% |
33.9–35.5% |
Liberal Democrats |
7.4% |
10.2% |
10.0–10.5% |
9.9–10.5% |
9.8–10.6% |
9.7–10.7% |
UK Independence Party |
1.8% |
4.1% |
3.9–4.3% |
3.9–4.3% |
3.8–4.3% |
3.8–4.4% |
Green Party |
1.6% |
4.1% |
3.9–4.3% |
3.9–4.3% |
3.8–4.3% |
3.8–4.4% |
Scottish National Party |
3.0% |
3.5% |
3.3–3.7% |
3.3–3.7% |
3.3–3.7% |
3.2–3.8% |
Plaid Cymru |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.5–0.7% |
0.5–0.7% |
0.5–0.7% |
0.5–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Conservative Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
315 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
317 |
2% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
318 |
3% |
96% |
|
319 |
4% |
93% |
|
320 |
3% |
89% |
|
321 |
2% |
86% |
|
322 |
6% |
84% |
|
323 |
4% |
78% |
|
324 |
17% |
73% |
|
325 |
3% |
57% |
|
326 |
8% |
54% |
Median, Majority |
327 |
9% |
46% |
|
328 |
5% |
38% |
|
329 |
7% |
33% |
|
330 |
8% |
26% |
|
331 |
4% |
17% |
|
332 |
7% |
13% |
|
333 |
4% |
6% |
|
334 |
2% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
224 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
225 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
226 |
9% |
96% |
|
227 |
8% |
87% |
|
228 |
11% |
79% |
|
229 |
8% |
68% |
|
230 |
19% |
60% |
Median |
231 |
3% |
41% |
|
232 |
18% |
38% |
|
233 |
2% |
20% |
|
234 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
17% |
|
236 |
16% |
17% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
3% |
97% |
|
26 |
73% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
18% |
21% |
|
28 |
2% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
Green Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
7% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
26% |
93% |
|
43 |
4% |
67% |
|
44 |
0% |
63% |
|
45 |
36% |
63% |
Median |
46 |
0.3% |
28% |
|
47 |
26% |
28% |
|
48 |
2% |
2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
|
Plaid Cymru
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
95% |
100% |
Median |
4 |
2% |
5% |
Last Result |
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
356 |
374 |
100% |
368–378 |
367–378 |
367–379 |
366–380 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party |
352 |
371 |
100% |
365–375 |
364–375 |
364–376 |
363–377 |
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats |
329 |
352 |
100% |
346–358 |
344–359 |
344–359 |
343–360 |
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru |
321 |
329 |
78% |
322–335 |
321–336 |
320–337 |
319–338 |
Conservative Party |
317 |
326 |
54% |
319–332 |
318–333 |
317–333 |
316–335 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
313 |
304 |
0% |
298–311 |
297–312 |
297–313 |
295–314 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party |
309 |
301 |
0% |
295–308 |
294–309 |
293–310 |
292–311 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru |
301 |
278 |
0% |
272–284 |
271–286 |
271–286 |
270–287 |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party |
297 |
275 |
0% |
269–281 |
268–283 |
267–283 |
267–284 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru |
278 |
259 |
0% |
255–265 |
255–266 |
254–266 |
253–267 |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats |
274 |
256 |
0% |
252–262 |
252–263 |
251–263 |
250–264 |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru |
266 |
233 |
0% |
229–239 |
229–239 |
228–239 |
228–240 |
Labour Party |
262 |
230 |
0% |
226–236 |
226–236 |
225–236 |
225–237 |
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
356 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
366 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
367 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
368 |
9% |
92% |
|
369 |
0.2% |
83% |
|
370 |
3% |
83% |
|
371 |
2% |
80% |
|
372 |
17% |
78% |
|
373 |
5% |
61% |
|
374 |
15% |
55% |
Median |
375 |
8% |
40% |
|
376 |
12% |
32% |
|
377 |
7% |
20% |
|
378 |
8% |
13% |
|
379 |
3% |
5% |
|
380 |
2% |
2% |
|
381 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
382 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
352 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
|
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
363 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
364 |
7% |
98.6% |
|
365 |
9% |
92% |
|
366 |
0.1% |
83% |
|
367 |
3% |
83% |
|
368 |
2% |
80% |
|
369 |
17% |
78% |
|
370 |
5% |
61% |
|
371 |
16% |
55% |
Median |
372 |
8% |
39% |
|
373 |
11% |
31% |
|
374 |
8% |
19% |
|
375 |
8% |
12% |
|
376 |
3% |
4% |
|
377 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
|
378 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
329 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
342 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
343 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
344 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
345 |
0.5% |
94% |
|
346 |
7% |
93% |
|
347 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
348 |
6% |
86% |
|
349 |
6% |
80% |
|
350 |
16% |
74% |
|
351 |
3% |
58% |
|
352 |
9% |
55% |
Median |
353 |
8% |
46% |
|
354 |
5% |
38% |
|
355 |
7% |
33% |
|
356 |
8% |
26% |
|
357 |
5% |
18% |
|
358 |
7% |
13% |
|
359 |
4% |
6% |
|
360 |
2% |
2% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
318 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
319 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
320 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
321 |
3% |
96% |
Last Result |
322 |
4% |
93% |
|
323 |
3% |
89% |
|
324 |
2% |
86% |
|
325 |
6% |
84% |
|
326 |
4% |
78% |
Majority |
327 |
16% |
73% |
|
328 |
3% |
57% |
|
329 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
330 |
8% |
46% |
|
331 |
5% |
38% |
|
332 |
6% |
33% |
|
333 |
8% |
27% |
|
334 |
4% |
19% |
|
335 |
8% |
14% |
|
336 |
3% |
7% |
|
337 |
2% |
3% |
|
338 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
Conservative Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
315 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
316 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
317 |
2% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
318 |
3% |
96% |
|
319 |
4% |
93% |
|
320 |
3% |
89% |
|
321 |
2% |
86% |
|
322 |
6% |
84% |
|
323 |
4% |
78% |
|
324 |
17% |
73% |
|
325 |
3% |
57% |
|
326 |
8% |
54% |
Median, Majority |
327 |
9% |
46% |
|
328 |
5% |
38% |
|
329 |
7% |
33% |
|
330 |
8% |
26% |
|
331 |
4% |
17% |
|
332 |
7% |
13% |
|
333 |
4% |
6% |
|
334 |
2% |
2% |
|
335 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
296 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
297 |
4% |
98% |
|
298 |
7% |
94% |
|
299 |
4% |
87% |
|
300 |
8% |
83% |
|
301 |
7% |
74% |
|
302 |
5% |
67% |
|
303 |
9% |
62% |
|
304 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
305 |
3% |
46% |
|
306 |
17% |
43% |
|
307 |
4% |
27% |
|
308 |
6% |
22% |
|
309 |
2% |
16% |
|
310 |
3% |
14% |
|
311 |
4% |
11% |
|
312 |
3% |
7% |
|
313 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
314 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
315 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
291 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
292 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
293 |
2% |
98.7% |
|
294 |
3% |
97% |
|
295 |
8% |
93% |
|
296 |
4% |
86% |
|
297 |
8% |
81% |
|
298 |
6% |
73% |
|
299 |
5% |
67% |
|
300 |
8% |
62% |
|
301 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
302 |
3% |
46% |
|
303 |
16% |
43% |
|
304 |
4% |
27% |
|
305 |
6% |
22% |
|
306 |
2% |
16% |
|
307 |
3% |
14% |
|
308 |
4% |
11% |
|
309 |
3% |
7% |
Last Result |
310 |
2% |
4% |
|
311 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
269 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
270 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
271 |
4% |
98% |
|
272 |
7% |
94% |
|
273 |
5% |
87% |
|
274 |
8% |
82% |
|
275 |
7% |
74% |
|
276 |
5% |
67% |
|
277 |
8% |
62% |
|
278 |
9% |
54% |
Median |
279 |
3% |
45% |
|
280 |
16% |
42% |
|
281 |
6% |
26% |
|
282 |
6% |
20% |
|
283 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
284 |
7% |
14% |
|
285 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
286 |
5% |
6% |
|
287 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
288 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
289 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
265 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
267 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
268 |
4% |
97% |
|
269 |
7% |
93% |
|
270 |
5% |
87% |
|
271 |
9% |
82% |
|
272 |
8% |
73% |
|
273 |
4% |
65% |
|
274 |
8% |
61% |
|
275 |
8% |
53% |
Median |
276 |
3% |
45% |
|
277 |
16% |
42% |
|
278 |
6% |
26% |
|
279 |
6% |
20% |
|
280 |
0.5% |
14% |
|
281 |
7% |
14% |
|
282 |
0.5% |
7% |
|
283 |
5% |
6% |
|
284 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
285 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
286 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
252 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
253 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
254 |
3% |
98.8% |
|
255 |
8% |
96% |
|
256 |
8% |
88% |
|
257 |
11% |
81% |
|
258 |
8% |
69% |
|
259 |
16% |
61% |
Median |
260 |
5% |
45% |
|
261 |
17% |
39% |
|
262 |
2% |
22% |
|
263 |
3% |
20% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
17% |
|
265 |
9% |
17% |
|
266 |
7% |
8% |
|
267 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
268 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
|
275 |
0% |
0% |
|
276 |
0% |
0% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
248 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
249 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
250 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
251 |
3% |
98% |
|
252 |
8% |
95% |
|
253 |
7% |
87% |
|
254 |
12% |
80% |
|
255 |
8% |
68% |
|
256 |
15% |
60% |
Median |
257 |
5% |
45% |
|
258 |
17% |
39% |
|
259 |
2% |
22% |
|
260 |
3% |
20% |
|
261 |
0.2% |
17% |
|
262 |
9% |
17% |
|
263 |
7% |
8% |
|
264 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
265 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
|
267 |
0% |
0% |
|
268 |
0% |
0% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
270 |
0% |
0% |
|
271 |
0% |
0% |
|
272 |
0% |
0% |
|
273 |
0% |
0% |
|
274 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
227 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
228 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
8% |
97% |
|
230 |
9% |
89% |
|
231 |
11% |
80% |
|
232 |
7% |
69% |
|
233 |
19% |
62% |
Median |
234 |
4% |
42% |
|
235 |
18% |
39% |
|
236 |
2% |
20% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
238 |
0% |
17% |
|
239 |
16% |
17% |
|
240 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
241 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
|
263 |
0% |
0% |
|
264 |
0% |
0% |
|
265 |
0% |
0% |
|
266 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Labour Party

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
224 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
225 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
226 |
9% |
96% |
|
227 |
8% |
87% |
|
228 |
11% |
79% |
|
229 |
8% |
68% |
|
230 |
19% |
60% |
Median |
231 |
3% |
41% |
|
232 |
18% |
38% |
|
233 |
2% |
20% |
|
234 |
0.9% |
18% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
17% |
|
236 |
16% |
17% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
238 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
239 |
0% |
0% |
|
240 |
0% |
0% |
|
241 |
0% |
0% |
|
242 |
0% |
0% |
|
243 |
0% |
0% |
|
244 |
0% |
0% |
|
245 |
0% |
0% |
|
246 |
0% |
0% |
|
247 |
0% |
0% |
|
248 |
0% |
0% |
|
249 |
0% |
0% |
|
250 |
0% |
0% |
|
251 |
0% |
0% |
|
252 |
0% |
0% |
|
253 |
0% |
0% |
|
254 |
0% |
0% |
|
255 |
0% |
0% |
|
256 |
0% |
0% |
|
257 |
0% |
0% |
|
258 |
0% |
0% |
|
259 |
0% |
0% |
|
260 |
0% |
0% |
|
261 |
0% |
0% |
|
262 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): People’s Vote
- Fieldwork period: 21 December 2018–4 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 25537
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.35%