Opinion Poll by YouGov for People’s Vote, 21 December 2018–4 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 42.4% 40.8% 40.4–41.2% 40.3–41.3% 40.2–41.4% 40.0–41.6%
Labour Party 40.0% 34.7% 34.3–35.1% 34.2–35.2% 34.1–35.3% 33.9–35.5%
Liberal Democrats 7.4% 10.2% 10.0–10.5% 9.9–10.5% 9.8–10.6% 9.7–10.7%
UK Independence Party 1.8% 4.1% 3.9–4.3% 3.9–4.3% 3.8–4.3% 3.8–4.4%
Green Party 1.6% 4.1% 3.9–4.3% 3.9–4.3% 3.8–4.3% 3.8–4.4%
Scottish National Party 3.0% 3.5% 3.3–3.7% 3.3–3.7% 3.3–3.7% 3.2–3.8%
Plaid Cymru 0.5% 0.6% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7% 0.5–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party 317 326 319–332 318–333 317–333 316–335
Labour Party 262 230 226–236 226–236 225–236 225–237
Liberal Democrats 12 26 26–27 25–27 24–27 24–28
UK Independence Party 0 1 1 1 1 1
Green Party 1 1 1 1 1 1
Scottish National Party 35 45 42–47 41–47 41–47 41–48
Plaid Cymru 4 3 3 3 3–5 3–5

Conservative Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Conservative Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0.3% 100%  
316 1.0% 99.7%  
317 2% 98.7% Last Result
318 3% 96%  
319 4% 93%  
320 3% 89%  
321 2% 86%  
322 6% 84%  
323 4% 78%  
324 17% 73%  
325 3% 57%  
326 8% 54% Median, Majority
327 9% 46%  
328 5% 38%  
329 7% 33%  
330 8% 26%  
331 4% 17%  
332 7% 13%  
333 4% 6%  
334 2% 2%  
335 0.6% 0.7%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Labour Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0.2% 100%  
225 3% 99.8%  
226 9% 96%  
227 8% 87%  
228 11% 79%  
229 8% 68%  
230 19% 60% Median
231 3% 41%  
232 18% 38%  
233 2% 20%  
234 0.9% 18%  
235 0.2% 17%  
236 16% 17%  
237 0.9% 1.1%  
238 0.2% 0.2%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100% Last Result
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 3% 99.8%  
25 3% 97%  
26 73% 94% Median
27 18% 21%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Green Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Green Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 7% 99.9%  
42 26% 93%  
43 4% 67%  
44 0% 63%  
45 36% 63% Median
46 0.3% 28%  
47 26% 28%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Plaid Cymru

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Plaid Cymru page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 95% 100% Median
4 2% 5% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 356 374 100% 368–378 367–378 367–379 366–380
Conservative Party – Scottish National Party 352 371 100% 365–375 364–375 364–376 363–377
Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats 329 352 100% 346–358 344–359 344–359 343–360
Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru 321 329 78% 322–335 321–336 320–337 319–338
Conservative Party 317 326 54% 319–332 318–333 317–333 316–335
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 313 304 0% 298–311 297–312 297–313 295–314
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party 309 301 0% 295–308 294–309 293–310 292–311
Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru 301 278 0% 272–284 271–286 271–286 270–287
Labour Party – Scottish National Party 297 275 0% 269–281 268–283 267–283 267–284
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru 278 259 0% 255–265 255–266 254–266 253–267
Labour Party – Liberal Democrats 274 256 0% 252–262 252–263 251–263 250–264
Labour Party – Plaid Cymru 266 233 0% 229–239 229–239 228–239 228–240
Labour Party 262 230 0% 226–236 226–236 225–236 225–237

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100% Last Result
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0.2% 100%  
366 1.2% 99.8%  
367 7% 98.6%  
368 9% 92%  
369 0.2% 83%  
370 3% 83%  
371 2% 80%  
372 17% 78%  
373 5% 61%  
374 15% 55% Median
375 8% 40%  
376 12% 32%  
377 7% 20%  
378 8% 13%  
379 3% 5%  
380 2% 2%  
381 0.3% 0.4%  
382 0.1% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100% Last Result
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100%  
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0.2% 100%  
363 1.2% 99.8%  
364 7% 98.6%  
365 9% 92%  
366 0.1% 83%  
367 3% 83%  
368 2% 80%  
369 17% 78%  
370 5% 61%  
371 16% 55% Median
372 8% 39%  
373 11% 31%  
374 8% 19%  
375 8% 12%  
376 3% 4%  
377 0.9% 1.2%  
378 0.3% 0.3%  
379 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100% Last Result
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0.1% 100%  
342 0.2% 99.9%  
343 0.9% 99.8%  
344 5% 98.9%  
345 0.5% 94%  
346 7% 93%  
347 0.5% 86%  
348 6% 86%  
349 6% 80%  
350 16% 74%  
351 3% 58%  
352 9% 55% Median
353 8% 46%  
354 5% 38%  
355 7% 33%  
356 8% 26%  
357 5% 18%  
358 7% 13%  
359 4% 6%  
360 2% 2%  
361 0.2% 0.2%  
362 0% 0%  

Conservative Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0.3% 100%  
319 1.0% 99.7%  
320 2% 98.7%  
321 3% 96% Last Result
322 4% 93%  
323 3% 89%  
324 2% 86%  
325 6% 84%  
326 4% 78% Majority
327 16% 73%  
328 3% 57%  
329 8% 54% Median
330 8% 46%  
331 5% 38%  
332 6% 33%  
333 8% 27%  
334 4% 19%  
335 8% 14%  
336 3% 7%  
337 2% 3%  
338 1.1% 1.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0%  

Conservative Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0.3% 100%  
316 1.0% 99.7%  
317 2% 98.7% Last Result
318 3% 96%  
319 4% 93%  
320 3% 89%  
321 2% 86%  
322 6% 84%  
323 4% 78%  
324 17% 73%  
325 3% 57%  
326 8% 54% Median, Majority
327 9% 46%  
328 5% 38%  
329 7% 33%  
330 8% 26%  
331 4% 17%  
332 7% 13%  
333 4% 6%  
334 2% 2%  
335 0.6% 0.7%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
294 0% 100%  
295 0.6% 99.9%  
296 2% 99.3%  
297 4% 98%  
298 7% 94%  
299 4% 87%  
300 8% 83%  
301 7% 74%  
302 5% 67%  
303 9% 62%  
304 8% 54% Median
305 3% 46%  
306 17% 43%  
307 4% 27%  
308 6% 22%  
309 2% 16%  
310 3% 14%  
311 4% 11%  
312 3% 7%  
313 2% 4% Last Result
314 1.0% 1.3%  
315 0.3% 0.3%  
316 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0.1% 100%  
292 1.1% 99.8%  
293 2% 98.7%  
294 3% 97%  
295 8% 93%  
296 4% 86%  
297 8% 81%  
298 6% 73%  
299 5% 67%  
300 8% 62%  
301 8% 54% Median
302 3% 46%  
303 16% 43%  
304 4% 27%  
305 6% 22%  
306 2% 16%  
307 3% 14%  
308 4% 11%  
309 3% 7% Last Result
310 2% 4%  
311 1.0% 1.3%  
312 0.3% 0.3%  
313 0% 0%  

Labour Party – Scottish National Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0.2% 100%  
270 2% 99.8%  
271 4% 98%  
272 7% 94%  
273 5% 87%  
274 8% 82%  
275 7% 74%  
276 5% 67%  
277 8% 62%  
278 9% 54% Median
279 3% 45%  
280 16% 42%  
281 6% 26%  
282 6% 20%  
283 0.5% 14%  
284 7% 14%  
285 0.5% 7%  
286 5% 6%  
287 0.9% 1.1%  
288 0.2% 0.2%  
289 0.1% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0.1% 100%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 2% 99.8%  
268 4% 97%  
269 7% 93%  
270 5% 87%  
271 9% 82%  
272 8% 73%  
273 4% 65%  
274 8% 61%  
275 8% 53% Median
276 3% 45%  
277 16% 42%  
278 6% 26%  
279 6% 20%  
280 0.5% 14%  
281 7% 14%  
282 0.5% 7%  
283 5% 6%  
284 0.9% 1.1%  
285 0.2% 0.2%  
286 0.1% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0.3% 100%  
253 0.9% 99.7%  
254 3% 98.8%  
255 8% 96%  
256 8% 88%  
257 11% 81%  
258 8% 69%  
259 16% 61% Median
260 5% 45%  
261 17% 39%  
262 2% 22%  
263 3% 20%  
264 0.1% 17%  
265 9% 17%  
266 7% 8%  
267 1.2% 1.4%  
268 0.2% 0.2%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0.1% 100%  
249 0.3% 99.9%  
250 2% 99.6%  
251 3% 98%  
252 8% 95%  
253 7% 87%  
254 12% 80%  
255 8% 68%  
256 15% 60% Median
257 5% 45%  
258 17% 39%  
259 2% 22%  
260 3% 20%  
261 0.2% 17%  
262 9% 17%  
263 7% 8%  
264 1.2% 1.4%  
265 0.2% 0.2%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party – Plaid Cymru

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0.1% 100%  
228 2% 99.9%  
229 8% 97%  
230 9% 89%  
231 11% 80%  
232 7% 69%  
233 19% 62% Median
234 4% 42%  
235 18% 39%  
236 2% 20%  
237 0.9% 18%  
238 0% 17%  
239 16% 17%  
240 1.1% 1.3%  
241 0.2% 0.2%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0% Last Result

Labour Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0.2% 100%  
225 3% 99.8%  
226 9% 96%  
227 8% 87%  
228 11% 79%  
229 8% 68%  
230 19% 60% Median
231 3% 41%  
232 18% 38%  
233 2% 20%  
234 0.9% 18%  
235 0.2% 17%  
236 16% 17%  
237 0.9% 1.1%  
238 0.2% 0.2%  
239 0% 0%  
240 0% 0%  
241 0% 0%  
242 0% 0%  
243 0% 0%  
244 0% 0%  
245 0% 0%  
246 0% 0%  
247 0% 0%  
248 0% 0%  
249 0% 0%  
250 0% 0%  
251 0% 0%  
252 0% 0%  
253 0% 0%  
254 0% 0%  
255 0% 0%  
256 0% 0%  
257 0% 0%  
258 0% 0%  
259 0% 0%  
260 0% 0%  
261 0% 0%  
262 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations